Correction: External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Women's views on screening for Type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes: a systematic review, qualitative synthesis and recommendations for increasing uptake.

AIM: Many women do not attend recommended glucose testing following a pregnancy affected by gestational diabetes (GDM). We aimed to synthesize the literature regarding the views and experiences of women with a history of GDM on postpartum glucose testing, focusing on barriers and facilitators to attendance. METHODS: We systematically identified qualitative studies that examine women's experiences following GDM relating to glucose testing (diabetes screening) or experience of interventions to promote uptake of testing. We conducted a thematic synthesis to develop descriptive and then analytical themes, then developed recommendations to increase uptake based on the findings. We evaluated the quality of each study and the confidence that we had in the recommendations using published checklists. RESULTS: We included 16 articles after screening 23 160 citations and 129 full texts. We identified four themes of influences relating to the healthcare system and personal factors that affected both ability and motivation to attend: relationship with health care, logistics of appointments and tests, family-related practicalities and concern about diabetes. We developed 10 recommendations addressing diabetes risk information and education, and changes to healthcare systems to promote increased attendance at screening in this population, most with high or moderate confidence. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a need to improve women's understanding about Type 2 diabetes and GDM, and to adjust healthcare provision during and after pregnancy to decrease barriers and increase motivation for testing. Encouraging higher uptake by incorporating these recommendations into practice will enable earlier management of diabetes and improve long-term outcomes.

Behaviour change, weight loss and remission of Type 2 diabetes: a community-based prospective cohort study.

AIM: To quantify the association between behaviour change and weight loss after diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes, and the likelihood of remission of diabetes at 5-year follow-up. METHOD: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 867 people with newly diagnosed diabetes aged 40-69 years from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Participants were identified via stepwise screening between 2002 and 2006, and underwent assessment of weight change, physical activity (EPAQ2 questionnaire), diet (plasma vitamin C and self-report), and alcohol consumption (self-report) at baseline and 1 year after diagnosis. Remission was examined at 5 years after diabetes diagnosis via HbA1c level. We constructed log binomial regression models to quantify the association between change in behaviour and weight over both the first year after diagnosis and the subsequent 1-5 years, as well as remission at 5-year follow-up. RESULTS: Diabetes remission was achieved in 257 participants (30%) at 5-year follow-up. Compared with people who maintained the same weight, those who achieved ≥ 10% weight loss in the first year after diagnosis had a significantly higher likelihood of remission [risk ratio 1.77 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.38; p<0.01)]. In the subsequent 1-5 years, achieving ≥10% weight loss was also associated with remission [risk ratio 2.43 (95% CI 1.78 to 3.31); p<0.01]. CONCLUSION: In a population-based sample of adults with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes, weight loss of ≥10% early in the disease trajectory was associated with a doubling of the likelihood of remission at 5 years. This was achieved without intensive lifestyle interventions or extreme calorie restrictions. Greater attention should be paid to enabling people to achieve weight loss following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes.

Patient-reported outcomes after 10-year follow-up of intensive, multifactorial treatment in individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes: the ADDITION-Europe trial.

AIMS: To present the longer-term impact of multifactorial treatment of type 2 diabetes on self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, and diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow up of the ADDITION-Europe trial. METHODS: The ADDITION-Europe trial enrolled 3057 individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from four centres [Denmark, the UK (Cambridge and Leicester) and the Netherlands], between 2001 and 2006. Participants were randomized at general practice level to intensive treatment or to routine care . The trial ended in 2009 and a 10-year follow-up was performed at the end of 2014. We measured self-reported health status (36-item Short-Form Health Survey and EQ-5D), diabetes-specific quality of life (Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire), and diabetes treatment satisfaction (Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire) at different time points during the study period. A mixed-effects model was applied to estimate the effect of intensive treatment (intention-to-treat analyses) on patient-reported outcome measures for each centre. Centre-specific estimates were pooled using a fixed effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: There was no difference in patient-reported outcome measures between the routine care and intensive treatment arms in this 10-year follow-up study [EQ-5D: -0.01 (95% CI -0.03, 0.01); Physical Composite Score (36-item Short-Form Health Survey): -0.27 (95% CI -1.11, 0.57), Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life questionnaire: -0.01 (95% CI -0.11, 0.10); and Diabetes Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire: -0.20 (95% CI -0.70, 0.29)]. CONCLUSIONS: Intensive, multifactorial treatment of individuals with screen-detected type 2 diabetes did not affect self-reported health status, diabetes-specific quality of life, or diabetes treatment satisfaction at 10-year follow-up compared to routine care.

Women's views on lifestyle changes to reduce the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes: a systematic review, qualitative synthesis and recommendations for practice.

AIMS: After gestational diabetes, many women exhibit behaviours that increase their risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. We aimed to systematically synthesize the literature that focuses on the views of women with a history of gestational diabetes on reducing their risk of developing diabetes postpartum through lifestyle and behaviour changes. METHODS: We identified qualitative studies that examined the views of women with a history of gestational diabetes towards healthy eating and physical activity, Type 2 diabetes risk management or their experience of a diabetes prevention programme, and conducted a thematic synthesis to develop descriptive and then analytical themes. We also evaluated the quality of each study and the confidence that we had in our findings. RESULTS: We included 21 articles after screening 23 160 citations and 129 full texts. We identified six themes of interacting influences on postpartum behaviour: role as mother and priorities; social support; demands of life; personal preferences and experiences; risk perception and information; and finances and resources (plus preferred format of interventions). These factors inhibited many women from addressing their own health, while they motivated others to persevere. We also developed 20 recommendations, most with high or moderate confidence, for effective promotion of healthy lifestyles in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Many factors hinder healthy lifestyles after gestational diabetes, yet how women interpret them can motivate or prevent changes that reduce diabetes risk. As our recommendations emphasize, women's experiences and needs should be considered when designing strategies to promote healthier lifestyles in this population.

External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer (CRC) that include variables routinely available or easily obtainable via self-completed questionnaire. METHODS: External validation of fourteen risk models from a previous systematic review in 373 112 men and women within the UK Biobank cohort with 5-year follow-up, no prior history of CRC and data for incidence of CRC through linkage to national cancer registries. RESULTS: There were 1719 (0.46%) cases of incident CRC. The performance of the risk models varied substantially. In men, the QCancer10 model and models by Tao, Driver and Ma all had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) between 0.67 and 0.70. Discrimination was lower in women: the QCancer10, Wells, Tao, Guesmi and Ma models were the best performing with AUCs between 0.63 and 0.66. Assessment of calibration was possible for six models in men and women. All would require country-specific recalibration if estimates of absolute risks were to be given to individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Several risk models based on easily obtainable data have relatively good discrimination in a UK population. Modelling studies are now required to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of implementing stratified risk-based CRC screening.

Associations between body mass index-related genetic variants and adult body composition: The Fenland cohort study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Body mass index (BMI) is a surrogate measure of adiposity but does not distinguish fat from lean or bone mass. The genetic determinants of BMI are thought to predominantly influence adiposity but this has not been confirmed. Here we characterise the association between BMI-related genetic variants and body composition in adults. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Among 9667 adults aged 29-64 years from the Fenland study, a genetic risk score for BMI (BMI-GRS) was calculated for each individual as the weighted sum of BMI-increasing alleles across 96 reported BMI-related variants. Associations between the BMI-GRS and body composition, estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans, were examined using age-adjusted linear regression models, separately by sex. RESULTS: The BMI-GRS was positively associated with all fat, lean and bone variables. Across body regions, associations of the greatest magnitude were observed for adiposity variables, for example, for each s.d. increase in BMI-GRS predicted BMI, we observed a 0.90 s.d. (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71, 1.09) increase in total fat mass for men (P=3.75 × 10-21) and a 0.96 s.d. (95% CI: 0.77, 1.16) increase for women (P=6.12 × 10-22). Associations of intermediate magnitude were observed with lean variables, for example, total lean mass: men: 0.68 s.d. (95% CI: 0.49, 0.86; P=1.91 × 10-12); women: 0.85 s.d. (95% CI: 0.65, 1.04; P=2.66 × 10-17) and of a lower magnitude with bone variables, for example, total bone mass: men: 0.39 s.d. (95% CI: 0.20, 0.58; P=5.69 × 10-5); women: 0.45 s.d. (95% CI: 0.26, 0.65; P=3.96 × 106). Nominally significant associations with BMI were observed for 28 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. All 28 were positively associated with fat mass and 13 showed adipose-specific effects. CONCLUSIONS: In adults, genetic susceptibility to elevated BMI influences adiposity more than lean or bone mass. This mirrors the association between BMI and body composition. The BMI-GRS can be used to model the effects of measured BMI and adiposity on health and other outcomes.

Cardiovascular risk factors and incident albuminuria in screen-detected type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether cardiovascular risk factor modification influences the development of renal disease in people with type 2 diabetes identified through screening. We determined predictors of albuminuria 5 years after a diagnosis of screen-detected diabetes within the ADDITION-Europe study, a pragmatic cardiovascular outcome trial of multifactorial cardiovascular risk management. METHODS: In 1826 participants with newly diagnosed, screen-detected diabetes without albuminuria, we explored associations between risk of new albuminuria (≥2.5 mg mmol-1 for males and ≥3.5 mg mmol-1 for females) and (1) baseline cardio-metabolic risk factors and (2) changes from baseline to 1 year in systolic blood pressure (ΔSBP) and glycated haemoglobin (ΔHbA1c ) using logistic regression. RESULTS: Albuminuria developed in 268 (15%) participants; baseline body mass index and active smoking were independently associated with new onset albuminuria in 5 years after detection of diabetes. In a model adjusted for age, gender, baseline HbA1c and blood pressure, a 1% decrease in HbA1c and 5-mm Hg decrease in SBP during the first year were independently associated with lower risks of albuminuria (odds ratio), 95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.62 to 0.91 and 0.94, 0.88 to 1.01, respectively. Further adjustment did not materially change these estimates. There was no interaction between ΔSBP and ΔHbA1c in relation to albuminuria risk, suggesting likely additive effects on renal microvascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline measurements and changes in HbA1c and SBP a year after diagnosis of diabetes through screening independently associate with new onset albuminuria 4 years later. Established multifactorial treatment for diabetes applies to cases identified through screening.

Objectively measured sedentary time, physical activity and kidney function in people with recently diagnosed Type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort analysis.

AIM: To assess the prospective association between objectively measured physical activity and kidney function over 4 years in people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Individuals (120 women and 206 men) participating in the ADDITION-Plus trial underwent assessment of sedentary time (SED-time), time spent in moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and total physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) using a combined heart rate and movement sensor, and kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), serum creatinine and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR)] at baseline and after 4 years of follow-up. Multivariate regression was used to quantify the association between change in SED-time, MVPA and PAEE and kidney measures at four-year follow-up, adjusting for change in current smoking status, waist circumference, HbA1c , systolic blood pressure, triglycerides and medication usage. RESULTS: Over 4 years, there was a decline in eGFR values from 87.3 to 81.7 ml/min/1.73m(2) (P < 0.001); the prevalence of reduced eGFR (eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73m(2) ) increased from 6.1 to 13.2% (P < 0.001). There were small increases in serum creatinine (median: 81-84 µmol/l, P < 0.001) and urine ACR (median: 0.9-1.0 mg/mmol, P = 0.005). Increases in SED-time were associated with increases in serum creatinine after adjustment for MVPA and cardiovascular risk factors (ß = 0.013, 95% CI: 0.001, 0.03). Conversely, increases in PAEE were associated with reductions in serum creatinine (ß = -0.001, 95% CI: -0.003, -0.0001). CONCLUSION: Reducing time spent sedentary and increasing overall physical activity may offer intervention opportunities to improve kidney function among individuals with diabetes. (Trial Registry no. ISRCTN 99175498).

Effects of vitamin D2 or D3 supplementation on glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk among people at risk of type 2 diabetes: results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation. RESULTS: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness.

The descriptive epidemiology of accelerometer-measured physical activity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Objectively measured physical activity between older individuals and between populations has been poorly described. We aimed to describe and compare the variation in accelerometry data in older UK (EPIC-Norfolk) and American (NHANES) adults. METHODS: Physical activity was measured by uniaxial accelerometry in 4,052 UK (49-91 years) and 3459 US older adults (49-85 years). We summarized physical activity as volume (average counts/minute), its underlying intensity distribution, and as time spent <100counts/minute, ≥809counts/minute and ≥2020counts/minute both for total activity and that undertaken in ≥10-min bouts. RESULTS: In EPIC-Norfolk 65% of wear-time was spent at <100 counts/minute and 20% spent in the range 100-500 counts/minute. Only 4.1% of this cohort accumulated more than 30 min/day of activity above 2020 counts/minute in 10-min bouts. If a cut-point of >809 counts/minute is used 18.7% of people reached the 30 min/day threshold. By comparison, 2.5% and 9.5% of American older adults accumulated activity at these levels, respectively. CONCLUSION: As assessed by objectively measured physical activity, the majority of older adults in this UK study did not meet current activity guidelines. Older adults in the UK were more active overall, but also spent more time being sedentary than US adults.

Causal pathways linking environmental change with health behaviour change: Natural experimental study of new transport infrastructure and cycling to work.

BACKGROUND: Mechanisms linking changes to the environment with changes in physical activity are poorly understood. Insights into mechanisms of interventions can help strengthen causal attribution and improve understanding of divergent response patterns. We examined the causal pathways linking exposure to new transport infrastructure with changes in cycling to work. METHODS: We used baseline (2009) and follow-up (2012) data (N=469) from the Commuting and Health in Cambridge natural experimental study (Cambridge, UK). Exposure to new infrastructure in the form of the Cambridgeshire Guided Busway was defined using residential proximity. Mediators studied were changes in perceptions of the route to work, theory of planned behaviour constructs and self-reported use of the new infrastructure. Outcomes were modelled as an increase, decrease or no change in weekly cycle commuting time. We used regression analyses to identify combinations of mediators forming potential pathways between exposure and outcome. We then tested these pathways in a path model and stratified analyses by baseline level of active commuting. RESULTS: We identified changes in perceptions of the route to work, and use of the cycle path, as potential mediators. Of these potential mediators, only use of the path significantly explained (85%) the effect of the infrastructure in increasing cycling. Path use also explained a decrease in cycling among more active commuters. CONCLUSION: The findings strengthen the causal argument that changing the environment led to changes in health-related behaviour via use of the new infrastructure, but also show how some commuters may have spent less time cycling as a result.

Physical activity, sedentary time and gain in overall and central body fat: 7-year follow-up of the ProActive trial cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine the independent associations of time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED-time), with total and abdominal body fat (BF), and the bidirectionality of these associations in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: We measured MVPA (min per day) and SED-time (h per day) by accelerometry, and indices of total (body weight, fat mass (FM), BF% and FM index) and abdominal BF (waist circumference (WC)) using standard procedures in 231 adults (41.3 ± 6.4 years) with parental history of type 2 diabetes (ProActive UK) at baseline, 1-year and 7-year follow-up. Mixed effects models were used to quantify the independent associations (expressed as standardised ß-coefficients (95% confidence interval (CI))) of MVPA and SED-time with fat indices, using data from all three time points. All models were adjusted for age, sex, intervention arm, monitor wear time, follow-up time, smoking status, socioeconomic status and MVPA/SED-time. RESULTS: MVPA was inversely and independently associated with all indices of total BF (for example, 1 s.d. higher MVPA was associated with a reduction in FM, ß = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.14, -0.04) s.d.) and abdominal BF (for example, WC: ß = -0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)). Similarly, higher fat indices were independently associated with a reduction in MVPA (for example, WC: ß = -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15); FM: ß = -0.27 (-0.36, -0.18)). SED-time was positively and independently associated with most fat indices (for example, WC: ß = 0.03 (-0.04, 0.09); FM: ß = 0.10 (0.03, 0.17)). Higher values of all fat indices independently predicted longer SED-time (for example, WC: ß = 0.10 (0.02, 0.18), FM: ß = 0.15 (0.07, 0.22)). CONCLUSIONS: The associations of MVPA and SED-time with total and abdominal BF are bidirectional and independent among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. The association between BF and MVPA is stronger than the reciprocal association, highlighting the importance of considering BF as a determinant of decreasing activity and a potential consequence. Promoting more MVPA and less SED-time may reduce total and abdominal BF.

Are changes in glycaemic control associated with diabetes-specific quality of life and health status in screen-detected type 2 diabetes patients? Four-year follow up of the ADDITION-Cambridge cohort.

BACKGROUND: Interventions that improve HbA1c levels do not necessarily improve health-related quality of life (QoL). This issue may be particularly relevant in asymptomatic diabetes patients detected earlier in the course of the disease. METHODS: HbA1c , diabetes-specific QoL (ADDQoL) and health status were measured in 510 screen-detected diabetes patients from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial at 1 and 5 years post diagnosis. Multivariable logistic/linear regression was used to quantify the longitudinal association between change in HbA1c from 1 to 5 years and ADDQoL and health status at 5 years, adjusting for age, sex, education and trial group; alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, plasma vitamin C, HbA1c , ADDQoL or health status at 1 year, and glucose-lowering medication at 5 years. RESULTS: From 1 to 5 years, median HbA1c interquartile range increased from 6.3% (5.9-6.8) to 6.8% (6.4-7.4); the median ADDQoL score and mean health status physical health summary score decreased from -0.4 (-1 to -0.08) to -0.5 (-1.08 to -0.09) (suggesting an adverse impact of diabetes on QoL) and by -0.79 (8.94) points, respectively. Increases in HbA1c were independently associated with reporting a negative impact of diabetes on QoL (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.85) but not with the health status summary scores. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in HbA1c from 1 to 5 years post-diagnosis were independently associated with increased odds of reporting a negative impact of diabetes on QoL. While our results suggest that efforts to reduce HbA1c do not adversely affect health-related QoL, large numbers of participants still report a negative impact of diabetes on their QoL 5 years post-diagnosis.

Cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment compared with routine care for individuals with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes: analysis of the ADDITION-UK cluster-randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To examine the short- and long-term cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment compared with routine care among people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Cost-utility analysis in ADDITION-UK, a cluster-randomized controlled trial of early intensive treatment in people with screen-detected diabetes in 69 UK general practices. Unit treatment costs and utility decrement data were taken from published literature. Accumulated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were calculated using ADDITION-UK data from 1 to 5 years (short-term analysis, n = 1024); trial data were extrapolated to 30 years using the UKPDS outcomes model (version 1.3) (long-term analysis; n = 999). All costs were transformed to the UK 2009/10 price level. RESULTS: Adjusted incremental costs to the NHS were £285, £935, £1190 and £1745 over a 1-, 5-, 10- and 30-year time horizon, respectively (discounted at 3.5%). Adjusted incremental QALYs were 0.0000, - 0.0040, 0.0140 and 0.0465 over the same time horizons. Point estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) suggested that the intervention was not cost-effective although the ratio improved over time: the ICER over 10 years was £82,250, falling to £37,500 over 30 years. The ICER fell below £30 000 only when the intervention cost was below £631 per patient: we estimated the cost at £981. CONCLUSION: Given conventional thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the intensive treatment delivered in ADDITION was not cost-effective compared with routine care for individuals with screen-detected diabetes in the UK. The intervention may be cost-effective if it can be delivered at reduced cost.

Healthy behaviours and 10-year incidence of diabetes: a population cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between meeting behavioural goals and diabetes incidence over 10 years in a large, representative Swedish population. METHODS: Population-based prospective cohort study of 32,120 individuals aged 35 to 55 years participating in a health promotion intervention in Västerbotten County, Sweden (1990 to 2013). Participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test, clinical measures, and completed diet and activity questionnaires. Poisson regression quantified the association between achieving six behavioural goals at baseline - body mass index (BMI) <25 kg/m(2), moderate physical activity, non-smoker, fat intake <30% of energy, fibre intake ≥15 g/4184 kJ and alcohol intake ≤20 g/day - and diabetes incidence over 10 years. RESULTS: Median interquartile range (IQR) follow-up time was 9.9 (0.3) years; 2211 individuals (7%) developed diabetes. Only 4.4% of participants met all 6 goals (n=1245) and compared to these individuals, participants meeting 0/1 goals had a 3.74 times higher diabetes incidence (95% confidence interval (CI)=2.50 to 5.59), adjusting for sex, age, calendar period, education, family history of diabetes, history of myocardial infarction and long-term illness. If everyone achieved at least four behavioural goals, 14.1% (95% CI: 11.7 to 16.5%) of incident diabetes cases might be avoided. CONCLUSION: Interventions promoting the achievement of behavioural goals in the general population could significantly reduce diabetes incidence.

Offering statins to a population attending health checks with a 10-year cardiovascular disease risk between 10% and 20.

BACKGROUND: In 2014 the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommended reducing the threshold for offering statin therapy to patients from a 10-year modelled risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) of 20% to 10%. AIM: To describe the response of patients in UK primary care with a CVD risk between 10% and 20% to an invitation to attend a consultation to discuss statins. DESIGN AND SETTING: Review of electronic medical records at one GP practice in the East of England. METHOD: We invited all patients who had attended an NHS Health Check at the practice, had a QRisk(®) score between 10% and 20%, and were not prescribed statins to attend designated clinics in the practice to discuss starting statins. We reviewed the medical records to identify those who had attended the clinics and those who had chosen to start a statin. RESULTS: Of 410 patients invited, 100 (24.4%) patients attended the designated clinics and 45 (11%) chose to start a statin. Those who chose to start a statin were older and with a higher QRisk(®) than those who did not. Among those who attended, individuals who started a statin had a higher QRisk(®) than those who did not and were more likely to be current or ex-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion choosing to start a statin was substantially lower than previously estimated. Large population-based studies with long-term follow-up are needed to assess the impact on health and workload of this change in guidance.

Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

AIMS: To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. RESULTS: Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes.

Variation in prescribing of lipid-lowering medication in primary care is associated with incidence of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in people with screen-detected diabetes: findings from the ADDITION-Denmark trial.

AIMS: To examine variation between general practices in the prescription of lipid-lowering treatment to people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes, and associations with practice and participant characteristics and risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Observational cohort analysis of data from 1533 people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes aged 40-69 years from the ADDITION-Denmark study. One hundred and seventy-four general practices were cluster randomized to receive: (1) routine diabetes care according to national guidelines (623 individuals), or (2) intensive multifactorial target-driven management (910 individuals). Multivariable logistic regression was used to quantify the association between the proportion of individuals in each practice who redeemed prescriptions for lipid-lowering medication in the two years following diabetes diagnosis and a composite cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcome, adjusting for age, sex, prevalent chronic disease, baseline CVD risk factors, smoking and lipid-lowering medication, and follow-up time. RESULTS: The proportion of individuals treated with lipid-lowering medication varied widely between practices (0-100%). There were 118 CVD events over 9431 person-years of follow-up. For the whole trial cohort, the risk of CVD was significantly higher in practices in the lowest compared with the highest quartile for prescribing lipid-lowering medication [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-7.3]. Similar trends were found for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: More frequent prescription of lipid-lowering treatment was associated with a lower incidence of CVD and all-cause mortality. Improved understanding of factors underlying practice variation in prescribing may enable more frequent use of lipid-lowering treatment. The results highlight the benefits of intensive treatment of people with screen-detected diabetes (Clinical Trials Registry No; NCT 00237549).

Does early intensive multifactorial therapy reduce modelled cardiovascular risk in individuals with screen-detected diabetes? Results from the ADDITION-Europe cluster randomized trial.

AIMS: Little is known about the long-term effects of intensive multifactorial treatment early in the diabetes disease trajectory. In the absence of long-term data on hard outcomes, we described change in 10-year modelled cardiovascular risk in the 5 years following diagnosis, and quantified the impact of intensive treatment on 10-year modelled cardiovascular risk at 5 years. METHODS: In a pragmatic, cluster-randomized, parallel-group trial in Denmark, the Netherlands and the UK, 3057 people with screen-detected Type 2 diabetes were randomized by general practice to receive (1) routine care of diabetes according to national guidelines (1379 patients) or (2) intensive multifactorial target-driven management (1678 patients). Ten-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was calculated at baseline and 5 years using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine (version 3ß). RESULTS: Among 2101 individuals with complete data at follow up (73.4%), 10-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was 27.3% (sd 13.9) at baseline and 21.3% (sd 13.8) at 5-year follow-up (intensive treatment group difference -6.9, sd 9.0; routine care group difference -5.0, sd 12.2). Modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was lower in the intensive treatment group compared with the routine care group at 5 years, after adjustment for baseline cardiovascular disease risk and clustering (-2.0; 95% CI -3.1 to -0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing age and diabetes duration, there was a decline in modelled cardiovascular disease risk in the 5 years following diagnosis. Compared with routine care, 10-year modelled cardiovascular disease risk was lower in the intensive treatment group at 5 years. Our results suggest that patients benefit from intensive treatment early in the diabetes disease trajectory, where the rate of cardiovascular disease risk progression may be slowed.