Epidemic dynamics revealed in dengue evolution.

Dengue is an emerging tropical disease infecting tens of millions of people annually. A febrile illness with potentially severe hemorrhagic manifestations, dengue is caused by mosquito-borne viruses (DENV-1 to -4) that are maintained in endemic transmission in large urban centers of the tropics with periodic epidemic cycles at 3- to 5-year intervals. Puerto Rico (PR), a major population center in the Caribbean, has experienced increasingly severe epidemics since multiple dengue serotypes were introduced beginning in the late 1970s. We document the phylodynamics of DENV-4 between 1981 and 1998, a period of dramatic ecological expansion during which evolutionary change also occurs. The timescale of viral evolution is sufficiently short that viral transmission dynamics can be elucidated from genetic diversity data. Specifically, by combining virus sequence data with confirmed case counts in PR over these two decades, we show that the pattern of cyclic epidemics is strongly correlated with coalescent estimates of effective population size that have been estimated from sampled virus sequences using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Thus, we show that the observed epidemiologic dynamics are correlated with similar fluctuations in diversity, including severe interepidemic reductions in genetic diversity compatible with population bottlenecks that may greatly impact DENV evolutionary dynamics. Mean effective population sizes based on genetic data appear to increase prior to isolation counts, suggesting a potential bias in the latter and justifying more active surveillance of DENV activity. Our analysis explicitly integrates epidemiologic and sequence data in a joint model that could be used to further explore transmission models of infectious disease.

Lack of association of dengue activity with haze.

Dengue activity depends on fluctuations in Aedes populations which in turn are known to be influenced by climate factors including temperature, humidity and rainfall. It has been hypothesized that haze may reduce dengue transmission. Due to its geographical location Singapore suffers almost every year from hazes caused by wildfires from Indonesia. Such hazes have a significant impact on pollution indexes in Singapore. We set out to study the relationship of dengue activity and haze (measured as pollution standard index) in Singapore, using ARIMA models. We ran different univariate models, each encompassing a different lag period for the effects of haze and temperature (from lag 0 to lag 12 weeks). We analysed the data on a natural logarithmic scale to stabilize the variance and improve the estimation. No association between dengue activity and haze was found. Our findings do not lend support to the hypothesis that haze is associated with reduced dengue activity in Singapore.

Predictors of newborn systolic blood pressure.

BACKGROUND: Tracking of blood pressure from childhood to adulthood is well known. It is therefore important to determine predictors of blood pressure as early as at birth. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between maternal and neonatal factors on the blood pressure at birth of a group of Nigerian babies. METHODS: Consecutive full term neonates delivered in a tertiary centre in Nigeria were recruited for the study. Each newborn's systolic blood pressure (NSBP) was measured within the first four days of life. The mothers' weight, height, body mass index (BMI) and socioeconomic status (SES) were determined while the babies' weight and crown-heel length were measured as well. RESULTS: Four hundred and seventy-three mother/baby pairs were recruited for the study. The mean NSBP was 69.2 +/- 8.3 mmHG. The birth weight significantly correlated with NSBP,(r = 0.235, p = 0.0001). The NSBP rose an average of 3.61 mmHg per 0.5 kg increase in birth weight. The mean NSBP of babies of mothers with BMI <30 was significantly lower than in babies whose mothers had BMI>30, p=0.031. The mean NSBP of babies from low SES was significantly higher than middle or high SES groups p=0.022. CONCLUSION: The study shows that child birth weight is the most significant predictor of newborn systolic blood pressure.

Nipah virus: a recently emergent deadly paramyxovirus.

A paramyxovirus virus termed Nipah virus has been identified as the etiologic agent of an outbreak of severe encephalitis in people with close contact exposure to pigs in Malaysia and Singapore. The outbreak was first noted in late September 1998 and by mid-June 1999, more than 265 encephalitis cases, including 105 deaths, had been reported in Malaysia, and 11 cases of encephalitis or respiratory illness with one death had been reported in Singapore. Electron microscopic, serologic, and genetic studies indicate that this virus belongs to the family Paramyxoviridae and is most closely related to the recently discovered Hendra virus. We suggest that these two viruses are representative of a new genus within the family Paramyxoviridae. Like Hendra virus, Nipah virus is unusual among the paramyxoviruses in its ability to infect and cause potentially fatal disease in a number of host species, including humans.

Origin of the West Nile virus responsible for an outbreak of encephalitis in the northeastern United States.

In late summer 1999, an outbreak of human encephalitis occurred in the northeastern United States that was concurrent with extensive mortality in crows (Corvus species) as well as the deaths of several exotic birds at a zoological park in the same area. Complete genome sequencing of a flavivirus isolated from the brain of a dead Chilean flamingo (Phoenicopterus chilensis), together with partial sequence analysis of envelope glycoprotein (E-glycoprotein) genes amplified from several other species including mosquitoes and two fatal human cases, revealed that West Nile (WN) virus circulated in natural transmission cycles and was responsible for the human disease. Antigenic mapping with E-glycoprotein-specific monoclonal antibodies and E-glycoprotein phylogenetic analysis confirmed these viruses as WN. This North American WN virus was most closely related to a WN virus isolated from a dead goose in Israel in 1998.

Vector-borne diseases.

Vector-borne diseases have been the scourge of man and animals since the beginning of time. Historically, these are the diseases that caused the great plagues such as the 'Black Death' in Europe in the 14th Century and the epidemics of yellow fever that plagued the development of the New World. Others, such as Nagana, contributed to the lack of development in Africa for many years. At the turn of the 20th Century, vector-borne diseases were among the most serious public and animal health problems in the world. For the most part, these diseases were controlled by the middle of the 20th Century through the application of knowledge about their natural history along with the judicious use of DDT (dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and other residual insecticides to interrupt the transmission cycle between arthropod and vertebrate host. However, this success initiated a period of complacency in the 1960s and 1970s, which resulted in the redirection of resources away from prevention and control of vector-borne diseases. The 1970s was also a time in which there were major changes to public health policy. Global trends, combined with changes in animal husbandry, urbanisation, modern transportation and globalisation, have resulted in a global re-emergence of epidemic vector-borne diseases affecting both humans and animals over the past 30 years.

Pre-vaccination screening strategies for the use of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine: A meeting report.

The first licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia) is efficacious in seropositive individuals, but increases the risk for severe dengue in seronegative persons about two years after administration of the first dose. For countries considering the introduction of Dengvaxia, WHO recommends a pre-vaccination screening strategy whereby only persons with evidence of a past dengue infection would be vaccinated. Policy-makers need to consider the risk-benefit of vaccination strategies based on such screening tests, the optimal age to introduce the vaccine, communication and implementation strategies. To address these questions, the Global Dengue and Aedes-transmitted diseases Consortium (GDAC) organized a 3-day workshop in January 2019 with country representatives from Asia and Latin America. The meeting discussions highlighted many challenges in introducing Dengvaxia, in terms of screening test characteristics, costs of such tests combined with a 3-dose schedule, logistics, achieving high coverage rates, vaccine confidence and communication; more challenges than for any other vaccine introduction programme. A screening test would require a high specificity to minimize individual risk, and at the same time high sensitivity to maximize individual and population benefit. The underlying seroprevalence dependent positive predictive value is the best indicator for an acceptable safety profile of a pre-vaccination screening strategy. The working groups discussed many possible implementation strategies. Addressing the bottlenecks in school-based vaccine introduction for Dengvaxia will also benefit other vaccines such as HPV and booster doses for tetanus and pertussis. Levels of public trust are highly variable and context specific, and understanding of population perceptions and concerns is essential to tailor interventions, monitor and mitigate risks.

West Nile virus in the United States: guidelines for detection, prevention, and control.

The epidemic/epizootic of West Nile (WN) encephalitis in the northeastern United States in the summer and fall of 1999 was an unprecedented event, underscoring the ease with which emerging infectious pathogens can be introduced into new geographic areas in today's era of rapid transportation and increased movement of people, animals, and commodities. This epidemic/epizootic and the increased frequency of other exotic pathogens being imported into the United States raises the issue of whether local, state, and national public health agencies are prepared to deal with epidemics/epizootics of vector-borne infectious diseases. The overwintering of WN virus and the epizootic transmission in the summer of 2000 reinforces the need to rebuild the public health infrastructure to deal with vector-borne diseases in this country. This article summarizes guidelines for surveillance, prevention, and control of WN virus that were drafted in December 1999 to help prepare state and local health departments for monitoring WN virus activity in the spring and summer of 2000 and also summarizes the data collected from those surveillance systems through September 2000.

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on vector- and rodent-borne diseases.

Diseases such as plague, typhus, malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever, transmitted between humans by blood-feeding arthropods, were once common in the United States. Many of these diseases are no longer present, mainly because of changes in land use, agricultural methods, residential patterns, human behavior, and vector control. However, diseases that may be transmitted to humans from wild birds or mammals (zoonoses) continue to circulate in nature in many parts of the country. Most vector-borne diseases exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern, which clearly suggests that they are weather sensitive. Rainfall, temperature, and other weather variables affect in many ways both the vectors and the pathogens they transmit. For example, high temperatures can increase or reduce survival rate, depending on the vector, its behavior, ecology, and many other factors. Thus, the probability of transmission may or may not be increased by higher temperatures. The tremendous growth in international travel increases the risk of importation of vector-borne diseases, some of which can be transmitted locally under suitable circumstances at the right time of the year. But demographic and sociologic factors also play a critical role in determining disease incidence, and it is unlikely that these diseases will cause major epidemics in the United States if the public health infrastructure is maintained and improved.

The potential health impacts of climate variability and change for the United States: executive summary of the report of the health sector of the U.S. National Assessment.

We examined the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human health as part of a congressionally mandated study of climate change in the United States. Our author team, comprising experts from academia, government, and the private sector, was selected by the federal interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program, and this report stems from our first 18 months of work. For this assessment we used a set of assumptions and/or projections of future climates developed for all participants in the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We identified five categories of health outcomes that are most likely to be affected by climate change because they are associated with weather and/or climate variables: temperature-related morbidity and mortality; health effects of extreme weather events (storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, and precipitation extremes); air-pollution-related health effects; water- and foodborne diseases; and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. We concluded that the levels of uncertainty preclude any definitive statement on the direction of potential future change for each of these health outcomes, although we developed some hypotheses. Although we mainly addressed adverse health outcomes, we identified some positive health outcomes, notably reduced cold-weather mortality, which has not been extensively examined. We found that at present most of the U.S. population is protected against adverse health outcomes associated with weather and/or climate, although certain demographic and geographic populations are at increased risk. We concluded that vigilance in the maintenance and improvement of public health systems and their responsiveness to changing climate conditions and to identified vulnerable subpopulations should help to protect the U.S. population from any adverse health outcomes of projected climate change.

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Hundreds of thousands of dengue cases are reported worldwide each year. Given the difficulty in obtaining full reporting, the actual number of human infections is probably much higher than the number reported. Dengue is usually a nonspecific febrile illness that resolves with supportive therapy but the clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infection through severe hemorrhage and sudden fatal shock. The pathophysiology of the severe forms of dengue may be related to sequential infection with different serotypes, variations in virus virulence, interaction of the virus with environmental and host factors or a combination of these factors. Control of dengue at the present time is dependent on control of the principal vector mosquito, A. aegypti. Efforts to achieve such control are now focusing on community education and action towards eliminating this mosquito's breeding sites near human dwellings. Vaccine development continues, but at present the only way to avoid dengue in an area where it is endemic or epidemic is to use repellents and mosquito barriers. The movement of people to and from tropical areas makes dengue an important differential diagnosis in any patient with an acute illness and history of recent travel to tropical areas. Because of continued infestation of the southeastern United States with A. aegypti, indigenous transmission in the continental United States remains a public health concern.

Human arbovirus infections worldwide.

Viral diseases transmitted by blood-feeding arthropods (arboviral diseases) are among the most important of the emerging infectious disease public health problems facing the world at the beginning of the third millennium. There are over 534 viruses listed in the arbovirus catalogue, approximately 134 of which have been shown to cause disease in humans. These are transmitted principally by mosquitoes and ticks. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a few new arboviral diseases have been recognized. More important, however, is the dramatic resurgence and geographic spread of a number of old diseases that were once effectively controlled. Global demographic and societal changes, and modern transportation have provided the mechanisms for the viruses to break out of their natural ecology and become established in new geographic locations where susceptible arthropod vectors and hosts provide permissive conditions for them to cause major epidemics. West Nile virus is just the the latest example of this type of invasion by exotic viruses. This paper will provide an overview of the medically important arboviruses and discuss several in more detail as case studies to illustrate our tenuous position as we begin the twenty-first century.

Arboviruses as imported disease agents: the need for increased awareness.

The arboviruses are an important group of etiologic agents that are transported between geographic regions in infected animals and humans. This group of viruses is briefly reviewed as agents of imported disease and dengue viruses are discussed as an example to illustrate the trend of increasing incidence of imported arboviral diseases.

West Nile virus and other zoonotic viruses in Russia: examples of emerging-reemerging situations.

Studies of the interactions of vertebrates, viruses and arthropod vectors of these viruses were monitored in terms of different ecological groups of viruses transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks in Northern Eurasia in an area encompassing more than 15 million km2. About 90 viruses were isolated, including 24 new to science. Newly recognized infections of vertebrates, including humans, were described. Many unusual epidemic situations were analysed. Permanent efforts were established to prevent bioterrorist activities and their consequences. Extensive epidemic outbreaks of West Nile fever (WNF; i.e., fever caused by West Nile virus) and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) with unusual high mortality appeared in the last four years in southern Russia. We determined infection rates in humans, domestic and wild animals, mosquitoes and ticks from natural and synanthropic biocenoses [Editorial note: "synanthropic" means, roughly, all species living with (c.f. lice, fleas) or near people, such as in houses (c.f. house mice), parks (c.f. Rattus spp.), and the like, rather like "peridomestic", but not strictly so; "biocenosis" is the biome, the "totality of living populations in a particular habitat, which itself is only a part of the ecosystem".]. CCHF virus strains were phylogenetically similar to strains isolated in this area 35 years ago but different from Central-South-Asian and African strains. Before the outset of the current emergence of epidemic WNF, three genetic variants of this virus had been isolated in USSR, two African and one Indian. Phylogenetic analysis of complete genome sequences of epidemic strains demonstrated considerable similarity to strains from USA and Israel and differences from strains isolated in the same USSR areas 20-30 years before. In addition to strains of genotype 1, we isolated strains of second and third lineages and a strain of a fourth genetic variant. Nucleotide differences of these strains from all three genotypes was about 30%. The emerging WNF situation in Russia for the last 4 years probably has been the result of not only natural and social factors, but also to introduction of more virulent strains or by evolution of the virus.

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Four serotypes of dengue viruses produce dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome. They are the most important arbovirus infections of humans, in terms of both morbidity and mortality, constituting one of the most rapidly expanding and re-emerging infectious disease problems in Latin America. In less than 20 years, the region has transformed itself from hypoendemic to hyperendemic, while serotype circulation in most countries has gone from none or single to multiple. Changes in endemicity have coincided with the emergence and increasing incidence of the severer forms of dengue infection. This article reviews the clinical presentations of these diseases. Health care providers who see patients in or returning from areas of Latin America, the Caribbean, and other tropical areas must consider dengue in the differential diagnosis of patients presenting with compatible symptoms, and must be knowledgeable in the current management of this important disease.

Transmission of Ross River virus by Aedes polynesiensis and Aedes aegypti.

Laboratory studies were carried out with two geographic strains of Aedes polynesiensis and one strain of Aedes aegypti to determine whether they could transmit Ross River virus (RRV). Both species were shown to be good vectors of RRV, but Ae. polynesiensis was the most susceptible. Ae. polynesiensis represents a new vector for this virus and the epidemiologic implications of RRV spread by both mosquito species are discussed.

Laboratory studies of transovarial transmission of La Crosse and other arboviruses by Aedes albopictus and Culex fatigans.

Transovarial transmission of La Crosse virus by experimentally infected Aedes albopictus females to 2.7% of their F1 generation offspring was demonstrated. Progeny of both sexes were infected. Mean virus titers in parent mosquitoes and infected F1 generation adults were 10(4.6) and 10(3.4) plaque forming units/insect, respectively. The La Crosse-infected offspring were randomly distributed among the female parents. After two serial passages in A. albopictus, a marked change occurred in the plaque morphology of the virus but this had no apparent effect on the subsequent vertical transmission rate. In contrast, transovarial transmission did not occur in La Crosse-infected Culex fatigans or in A. albopictus and C. fatigans infected with vesicular stomatitis-Indiana, Cache Valley, Batai, Arumowot, and Itaporanga viruses. Results of this experiment suggest that the La Crosse model might be useful in studying the mechanism of transovarial transmission in additional mosquito species.

Variation among geographic strains of Aedes albopictus in susceptibility to infection with dengue viruses.

The comparative susceptibility to dengue virus infection of 13 geographic strains of Aedes albopictus was studied by feeding the mosquitoes on a virus-erythrocyte-sugar suspension. Significant variation in susceptibility for each of the four dengue serotypes was observed among the geographic strains. Mosquito strains which were more susceptible to infection with one dengue serotype also were more susceptible to the other dengue serotypes. There was a direct relationship between the amount of virus ingested and the infection rate in a given mosquito strain. A 100-fold difference in oral ID50 was noted between the most and the least susceptible strains. Crossing experiments between susceptible and resistant mosquito strains produced hybrid progeny with intermediate susceptibility. Susceptibility to infection by dengue 2 virus was decreased by selective inbreeding in one strain from 74% to 13% in two generations. Further selection, however, failed to produce a completely resistant line. It appeared that the actual "barrier" to infection was in the mosquito midgut.

A simple technique for demonstrating transmission of dengue virus by mosquitoes without the use of vertebrate hosts.

Aedes albopictus mosquitoes infected with dengue type 2 virus transmitted virus to measured small amounts of fluid which could be titrated readily for virus content. It was found that the percentage of mosquitoes transmitting was related to the extent of salivary gland infection. It was not uncommon for mosquitoes to transmit as much as 10(4) mosquito infectious doses50 of virus and transmission of significant amounts of virus was observed even though an insect only probed the test suspension without feeding to repletion. Transmission of virus was demonstrated as early as 10 days after oral infection when mosquitoes were held at 32 degrees C.