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Demographers have long attempted to project future changes in the size and composition of populations, but have ignored what these processes will mean for the size, composition, and age distribution of family networks. Kinship structures matter because family solidarity-a crucial source of informal care for millions of people around the world-is conditional on kin being alive. Here, we present innovative projections of biological kin for the 1950 to 2100 period and discuss what they imply for the availability of informal care. Overall, we project that the number of living kin for individuals will decline dramatically worldwide. While a 65-yo woman in 1950 could expect to have 41 living kin, a 65-yo woman in 2095 is projected to have just 25 [18.8 to 34.7] relatives (lower and upper 80% projection intervals). This represents a 38% [15 to 54] global decline. The composition of family networks is also expected to change, with the numbers of living grandparents and great-grandparents markedly increasing, and the numbers of cousins, nieces and nephews, and grandchildren declining. Family networks will age considerably, as we project a widening age gap between individuals and their kin due to lower and later fertility and longer lifespans. In Italy, for example, the average age of a grandmother of a 35-yo woman is expected to increase from 77.9 y in 1950 to 87.7 y [87.1 to 88.5] in 2095. The projected changes in kin supply will put pressure on the already stretched institutional systems of social support, as more individuals age with smaller and older family networks.
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Familia , Abuelos , Femenino , Humanos , Apoyo Social , Longevidad , FertilidadRESUMEN
Non-line-of-sight imaging allows objects to be observed when partially or fully occluded from direct view, by analysing indirect diffuse reflections off a secondary relay surface. Despite many potential applications1-9, existing methods lack practical usability because of limitations including the assumption of single scattering only, ideal diffuse reflectance and lack of occlusions within the hidden scene. By contrast, line-of-sight imaging systems do not impose any assumptions about the imaged scene, despite relying on the mathematically simple processes of linear diffractive wave propagation. Here we show that the problem of non-line-of-sight imaging can also be formulated as one of diffractive wave propagation, by introducing a virtual wave field that we term the phasor field. Non-line-of-sight scenes can be imaged from raw time-of-flight data by applying the mathematical operators that model wave propagation in a conventional line-of-sight imaging system. Our method yields a new class of imaging algorithms that mimic the capabilities of line-of-sight cameras. To demonstrate our technique, we derive three imaging algorithms, modelled after three different line-of-sight systems. These algorithms rely on solving a wave diffraction integral, namely the Rayleigh-Sommerfeld diffraction integral. Fast solutions to Rayleigh-Sommerfeld diffraction and its approximations are readily available, benefiting our method. We demonstrate non-line-of-sight imaging of complex scenes with strong multiple scattering and ambient light, arbitrary materials, large depth range and occlusions. Our method handles these challenging cases without explicitly inverting a light-transport model. We believe that our approach will help to unlock the potential of non-line-of-sight imaging and promote the development of relevant applications not restricted to laboratory conditions.
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Crowdsourced online genealogies have an unprecedented potential to shed light on long-run population dynamics, if analyzed properly. We investigate whether the historical mortality dynamics of males in familinx, a popular genealogical dataset, are representative of the general population, or whether they are closer to those of an elite subpopulation in two territories. The first territory is the German Empire, with a low level of genealogical coverage relative to the total population size, while the second territory is The Netherlands, with a higher level of genealogical coverage relative to the population. We find that, for the period around the turn of the 20th century (for which benchmark national life tables are available), mortality is consistently lower and more homogeneous in familinx than in the general population. For that time period, the mortality levels in familinx resemble those of elites in the German Empire, while they are closer to those in national life tables in The Netherlands. For the period before the 19th century, the mortality levels in familinx mirror those of the elites in both territories. We identify the low coverage of the total population and the oversampling of elites in online genealogies as potential explanations for these findings. Emerging digital data may revolutionize our knowledge of historical demographic dynamics, but only if we understand their potential uses and limitations.
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Demografía , Esperanza de Vida , Adulto , Alemania , Historia del Siglo XVII , Historia del Siglo XVIII , Historia del Siglo XIX , Historia del Siglo XX , Humanos , Masculino , Países Bajos , Dinámica PoblacionalRESUMEN
Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic has led many to experience the loss of family members, with significant negative outcomes. We quantify the extent to which these population-wide rates of kin loss represent a departure from levels expected in the absence of COVID-19 excess mortality and consider which demographic groups are most likely to be affected. Results for biological kin in 31 countries indicate dramatic increases in excess kin loss associated with excess mortality and follow a generational pattern consistent with COVID-19 mortality risk by age. During periods of high excess mortality, the number of younger individuals losing a grandparent increased by up to 845 per 100,000, or 1.2 times expected levels (for individuals aged 30 to 44 y in the United Kingdom in April 2020), while the number of older individuals losing a sibling increased by up to 511 per 100,000 or 1.15 times (for individuals aged 65 y and over in Poland in November 2020). Our monthly multicountry estimates of excess kin loss complement existing point estimates of the number of individuals bereaved by COVID-19 mortality [Verdery et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 117, 17695-17701 (2020); Kidman et al., JAMA Pediatr. 175, 745-746 (2021); Hillis et al., Lancet 398, 391-402 (2021)] and highlight the role of heterogeneous excess mortality in shaping country experiences.
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Aflicción , COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/mortalidad , Humanos , Incidencia , Reino Unido/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
SignificanceContemporary social sciences aim to be diverse and inclusive, but traces of the historical dominance of Western European and North American academic institutions persist in scientific practices. One such practice is the phrasing of article titles. Our analysis shows that articles studying the global North are systematically less likely to mention the name of the country they study in their title compared to articles on the global South. This constitutes, potentially, an unwarranted claim on universality and may lead to lesser recognition of global South studies. Social and behavioral scientists must reflect on the phrasing of their article titles to avoid reproducing harmful relations of intellectual domination which limit inclusivity and constitute a barrier to the generalizability of scientific knowledge.
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The non-line-of-sight (NLOS) imaging field encompasses both experimental and computational frameworks that focus on imaging elements that are out of the direct line-of-sight, for example, imaging elements that are around a corner. Current NLOS imaging methods offer a compromise between accuracy and reconstruction time as experimental setups have become more reliable, faster, and more accurate. However, all these imaging methods implement different assumptions and light transport models that are only valid under particular circumstances. This paper lays down the foundation for a cohesive theoretical framework which provides insights about the limitations and virtues of existing approaches in a rigorous mathematical manner. In particular, we adopt Dirac notation and concepts borrowed from quantum mechanics to define a set of simple equations that enable: i) the derivation of other NLOS imaging methods from such single equation (we provide examples of the three most used frameworks in NLOS imaging: back-propagation, phasor fields, and f-k migration); ii) the demonstration that the Rayleigh-Sommerfeld diffraction operator is the propagation operator for wave-based imaging methods; and iii) the demonstration that back-propagation and wave-based imaging formulations are equivalent since, as we show, propagation operators are unitary. We expect that our proposed framework will deepen our understanding of the NLOS field and expand its utility in practical cases by providing a cohesive intuition on how to image complex NLOS scenes independently of the underlying reconstruction method.
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PREMISE: Bracken (Pteridium, Dennstaedtiaceae) is a cosmopolitan genus of aggressive disturbance colonizers that are toxic to agricultural livestock. The taxonomy of Pteridium has been treated in multiple schemes, ranging from one to six species worldwide, with numerous subspecies and varieties. Recent work has focused on the worldwide distribution and systematics of the bracken fern, but South America has been poorly represented. We present the first continent-wide sampling and analysis of Pteridium esculentum, a Southern Hemisphere diploid species. METHODS: Within South America, P. esculentum has several morphotypes, distinguished into subspecies by variation in indument and lamina architecture. We used double digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADSeq) to assess the phylogenetic relationships of P. esculentum subspecies. RESULTS: We found a striking genetic homogeneity in the species, being able to support only two morphotypes from molecular data: P. e. arachnoideum and P. e. campestre. We had high confidence for shallow and deep phylogenetic relationships, but less support for relationships among crown groups. CONCLUSIONS: We describe an east-west geographic pattern that would explain the relationships between populations; and, in contrast to previous studies, we detected differences with P. esculentum from Australia. These results will lay the foundations for studying variations in this species' behavior as a weed, as well as its impact on the production of agricultural livestock in South America.
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Filogenia , Pteridium , América del Sur , Pteridium/genética , Variación Genética , Análisis de Secuencia de ADNRESUMEN
AIM: To quantify the impact of prematurity on chromatic discrimination throughout childhood, from 2 to 15 years of age. METHODS: We recruited two cohorts of children, as part of the TrackAI Project, an international project with seven different study sites: a control group of full-term children with normal visual development and a group of children born prematurely. All children underwent a complete ophthalmological exam and an assessment of colour discrimination along the three colour axes: deutan, protan and trytan using a DIVE device with eye tracking technology. RESULTS: We enrolled a total of 1872 children (928 females and 944 males) with a mean age of 6.64 years. Out of them, 374 were children born prematurely and 1498 were full-term controls. Using data from all the children born at term, reference normative curves were plotted for colour discrimination in every colour axis. Pre-term children presented worse colour discrimination than full-term in the three colour axes (p < 0.001). Even after removing from the comparison, all pre-term children with any visual disorder colour discrimination outcomes remained significantly worse than those from full-term children. CONCLUSION: While colour perception develops throughout the first years of life, children born pre-term face an increased risk for colour vision deficiencies.
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Percepción de Color , Defectos de la Visión Cromática , Masculino , Recién Nacido , Femenino , Embarazo , Humanos , Niño , Defectos de la Visión Cromática/etiología , Recien Nacido Prematuro , Parto , Percepción VisualRESUMEN
The experience of losing a child is increasingly uncommon worldwide but is no less devastating for parents who experience it. An overlooked aspect of this phenomenon is its timing: at which age do bereft parents lose a child and how are these ages at loss distributed? We use demographic methods to explore the mean and variability of maternal age at child loss in 18 countries for the 1850-2000 birth cohorts. We find that the distribution of age of child loss is bimodal, with one component representing young offspring deaths and another representing adult offspring deaths. Offspring loss is transitioning from being a relatively common life event, mostly experienced by young mothers, to a rare one spread throughout the maternal life course. Moreover, there is no evidence of convergence in the variability of age at offspring loss. These results advance the formal demography of kinship and underline the need to support bereaved parents across the life course.
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Importance: Youth (those aged <18 years) parental death has been associated with negative health outcomes. Understanding the burden of parental death due to drug poisoning (herein, drugs) and firearms is essential for informing interventions. Objective: To estimate the incidence of youth parental death due to drugs, firearms, and all other causes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted using vital registration, including all US decedents, and census data from January 1990 through December 2020. Data were analyzed from May 30, 2023, to March 28, 2024. Exposures: Parental death due to drug poisoning or firearms. Main Outcomes and Measures: A demographic matrix projection model was used to estimate the number and incidence of youth experiencing parental death, defined as the death of 1 or more parents, per 1000 population aged less than 18 years. Analyses evaluated parental deaths by drugs, firearms, and all other causes from 1999 through 2020 by race and ethnicity. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 931â¯785 drug poisoning deaths and 736â¯779 firearm-related deaths with a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (16.3) years. Most deaths occurred among males (73.8%) and White decedents (70.8%) followed by Black (17.5%) and Hispanic (9.5%) decedents. An estimated 759â¯000 (95% CI, 722â¯000-800â¯000) youth experienced parental death due to drugs and an estimated 434â¯000 (95% CI, 409â¯000-460â¯000) youth experienced parental death due to firearms, accounting for 17% of all parental deaths. From 1999 to 2020, the estimated number of youth who experienced parental death increased 345% (95% CI, 334%-361%) due to drugs and 39% (95% CI, 37%-41%) due to firearms compared with 24% (95% CI, 23%-25%) due to all other causes. Black youth experienced a disproportionate burden of parental deaths, based primarily on firearm deaths among fathers. In 2020, drugs and firearms accounted for 23% of all parental deaths, double the proportion in 1999 (12%). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this modeling study suggest that US youth are at high and increasing risk of experiencing parental death by drugs or firearms. Efforts to stem this problem should prioritize averting drug overdoses and firearm violence, especially among structurally marginalized groups.
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Sobredosis de Droga , Armas de Fuego , Violencia con Armas , Muerte Parental , Adolescente , Adulto , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven , Causas de Muerte , Estudios Transversales , Sobredosis de Droga/mortalidad , Sobredosis de Droga/epidemiología , Armas de Fuego/estadística & datos numéricos , Violencia con Armas/estadística & datos numéricos , Incidencia , Muerte Parental/estadística & datos numéricos , Muerte Parental/tendencias , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/mortalidad , Heridas por Arma de Fuego/epidemiología , Recién Nacido , Negro o Afroamericano/estadística & datos numéricos , Padre/estadística & datos numéricos , Blanco/estadística & datos numéricos , Hispánicos o Latinos/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
Olive oil production leads to the generation of olive mill wastewater (OMWW). Due to the presence of phenolic compounds, they are difficult to process, but they represent a source of high-added value chemicals since they have antioxidant and therapeutic properties. This work has studied the extraction of phenolic compounds from a type of OMWW, olive vegetation water, which presents these compounds in a more diluted dosage than in other studied to date, to revalue this waste stream. A real olive vegetation water from a Spanish olive oil producer was used, and liquid-liquid extraction was applied. Terpenoids and terpene-based hydrophobic eutectic solvents were systematically used to extract phenolic compounds following the concentrations of tyrosol, catechol, caffeic acid, and total phenolic content. By molecular simulation with the COSMO-RS method, 4 terpenoids, and 2 eutectic solvents were selected and compared with 2 conventional solvents. The Solvent/Feed ratio in the extraction of phenolic compounds was studied, showing that the solvents with the highest extraction results were geraniol, eucalyptol, and eutectic solvent menthol + camphor, which outperformed conventional solvents methyl isobutyl ketone and diisopropyl ether. Menthol + camphor gave total phenol extraction yields of 88.73% at a Solvent/Feed ratio in volume of 0.50, surpassing all solvents tested. A solvent reuse and regeneration process was applied by back-extraction of the 4 solvents: FTIR results showed the stability of the solvents while maintaining yields in the solvent reuse process. The phenolic compounds could be concentrated in the alkaline phase to factors up to 49.3 to the initial concentration in olive vegetation water. The alkaline phases were neutralized to obtain a precipitate with a caffeic acid content of up to 26 % wt%, and a tyrosol-rich supernatant with a concentration of up to 6.54 g/L. This work proposes a process using natural solvents to extract phenolic compounds from olive vegetation water.
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Antioxidantes , Olea , Solventes/química , Antioxidantes/análisis , Agua , Terpenos , Olea/química , Alcanfor , Mentol , Aceite de Oliva/química , Fenoles/análisis , Aguas ResidualesRESUMEN
Time-resolved illumination provides rich spatiotemporal information for applications such as accurate depth sensing or hidden geometry reconstruction, becoming a useful asset for prototyping and as input for data-driven approaches. However, time-resolved illumination measurements are high-dimensional and have a low signal-to-noise ratio, hampering their applicability in real scenarios. We propose a novel method to compactly represent time-resolved illumination using mixtures of exponentially modified Gaussians that are robust to noise and preserve structural information. Our method yields representations two orders of magnitude smaller than discretized data, providing consistent results in such applications as hidden-scene reconstruction and depth estimation, and quantitative improvements over previous approaches.
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Until now, surface-deposited stilbenes have been much less studied than other photochromic systems. Here, an asymmetrically substituted styrene incorporating a redox-active ferrocene moiety and a terminal alkyne group has been synthesised to investigate its photoisomerization in solution, and upon the formation of chemisorbed self-assembled monolayers through a carbon-gold bond formation. Charge transport measurements across the monolayers reveal that upon chemical linkage to the gold substrate there is an alteration of the isomerization pathway, which favours the trans to cis conversion, which is not observed in solution. The experimental observations are interpreted based on quantum chemistry calculations.
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Mortality crises are relatively common demographic events, but we know little about how they affect local populations beyond excess mortality. I argue that using a kinship perspective to study mortality crises provides valuable insights into (1) how excess mortality affects the exposure to kin loss and (2) how family bereavement may contribute to the reproduction of historical memory in the long term. I explore these two processes using a unique genealogical database that records the complete demographic history of Rio Negro, a genocide-affected population in Guatemala, between 1982 and 2015. The analysis shows that deaths from the 1982 genocide were balanced by age, sex, and socioeconomic status. One third of the population were killed, but two thirds were left bereaved (the top 10% most affected individuals lost 30% of their nuclear family relatives and 23% of their extended family relatives). Notably, the proportion of the population related to a victim did not change between 1983 and 2015. The persistence of family bereavement can be interpreted as a prolongation of grief or as a driver of historical memory. These demographic dynamics have implications for the study of historical events beyond mortality crises.
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Aflicción , Genocidio , Demografía , Familia , Pesar , Guatemala , HumanosRESUMEN
Pharmaceutical substances such as propranolol (PRO) are an emerging class of aquatic contaminants that have increasingly been detected in ground and surface water. For this reason, the aim of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of advanced oxidation systems for the PRO degradation. The tests started with anodic oxidation (AO), using 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 M Na2SO4 as the supporting electrolyte and 16, 32, 48, and 64 mA cm-2 as current density. Under the best conditions obtained in AO, the electro-Fenton (EF) process was reviewed, where the effect of Fe2+ was analyzed with 5, 10, 15, and 20 mg Fe2+ L-1. The Fenton reaction (FR) was studied using the Fe2+ concentration that promoted the highest percentage of PRO removal and initial concentration of 16 mg L-1 of H2O2, in addition to these conditions, in the photo-Fenton (PF) system, the effect of UV light with wavelengths 254 and 365 nm were evaluated. The results obtained showed that the degradation efficiency of the EF > AO > PF > FR system along with a percent removal of 94.52, 90.4, 25.97, and 4.4%, respectively. The results showed that PRO can be removed through the studied systems, with the EF system being the most efficient.
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Radical Hidroxilo , Contaminantes Químicos del Agua , Peróxido de Hidrógeno , Oxidación-Reducción , PropranololRESUMEN
Although steady fixation is a key aspect of a proper visual function, it is only subjectively assessed in young and uncooperative children. In the present study, we characterize the development of fixational behavior throughout childhood in a large group of healthy children 5 months of age and up, recruited in five geographically diverse sites. In order to do it, we examined 802 healthy children from April 2019 to February 2020. Their oculomotor behavior was analyzed by means of an automated digital system, based on eye-tracking technology. Oculomotor outcomes were gaze stability, fixation stability and duration of fixations (for both long and short fixational tasks), and saccadic reaction time. Ninety-nine percent of all recruited children were successfully examined. Fixational and saccadic performance improved with age throughout childhood, with more pronounced changes during the first 2 years of life. Gaze and fixation tended to be more stable with age (p < 0.001 for most the outcomes), and saccades tended to be faster. In a multivariate analysis, including age and ethnicity as independent variables and adjusting by data quality, age was related with most fixational outcomes. Our automated digital system and eye-tracking data allow us to quantitatively describe the development of oculomotor control during childhood, assess visual fixation and saccadic performance in children 5 months of age and up, and provide a normative reference of fixational outcomes for clinical practice.
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Movimientos Sacádicos , Sensación , Niño , Humanos , Preescolar , Tecnología de Seguimiento Ocular , Fijación Ocular , Análisis MultivarianteRESUMEN
Objective: Characterize and describe reports of suspected adverse reactions to a group of drugs used in Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru to treat or prevent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) between 1 March and 31 August 2020. Methods: A list of the 13 drugs used to treat or prevent COVID-19 was prepared, based on official and unofficial sources. Drawing on the databases of the national pharmacovigilance programs of the participating countries, reports of suspected adverse reactions to these drugs were collected for the period from 1 March and 31 August 2020. Results: A total of 3 490 reports of suspected adverse reactions were received from the pharmacovigilance programs of Peru (n = 3 037), Cuba (n = 270), Colombia (n = 108), Chile (n = 72), and El Salvador (n = 3). The drugs with the highest number of reported adverse reactions were azithromycin, ivermectin, and hydroxychloroquine. Diarrhea was the most frequent event (15.0%). Of the total suspected adverse reactions, 11.9% were reported as serious. The most frequent was QT prolongation following use of hydroxychloroquine. Of these suspected serious adverse reactions, 54.5% occurred in people over 65 years of age. Conclusions: While it is not possible to establish a causal relationship from the evaluation of spontaneous reports, the present study confirms the presence of adverse reactions-some of them serious-involving drugs used to treat or prevent COVID-19.
Objetivo: Caracterizar e descrever as notificações de suspeitas de reações adversas a um grupo de medicamentos utilizados na Colômbia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Chile, El Salvador, México e Peru, para tratar ou prevenir a doença do coronavírus (COVID-19), entre 1º de março e 31 de agosto de 2020. Métodos: Foi elaborada uma lista dos 13 medicamentos usados para tratar ou prevenir a COVID-19, segundo fontes oficiais e não oficiais. A partir das bases de dados dos programas nacionais de farmacovigilância dos países participantes, foram coletadas notificações de suspeitas de reações adversas a esses medicamentos, recebidas no período entre 1º de março e 31 de agosto de 2020. Resultados: Foram recebidas 3.490 notificações de suspeitas de reações adversas dos programas de farmacovigilância do Peru (n = 3.037), Cuba (n = 270), Colômbia (n = 108), Chile (n = 72) e El Salvador (n = 3). Os medicamentos com maior número de notificações de reações adversas foram azitromicina, ivermectina e hidroxicloroquina. A diarreia foi o evento mais frequente (15,0%). Do total de suspeitas de reações adversas, 11,9% foram notificadas como graves. A mais frequente foi o prolongamento do intervalo QT após o uso de hidroxicloroquina. Dessas suspeitas de reações adversas graves, 54,5% ocorreram em pessoas com mais de 65 anos. Conclusão: Embora não seja possível estabelecer uma relação causal com base na avaliação de relatos espontâneos, o presente estudo confirma a presença de reações adversas algumas graves a medicamentos que foram usados para tratar ou prevenir a COVID-19.
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Objectives. To describe excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guatemala during 2020 by week, age, sex, and place of death. Methods. We used mortality data from 2015 to 2020, gathered through the vital registration system of Guatemala. We calculated weekly mortality rates, overall and stratified by age, sex, and place of death. We fitted a generalized additive model to calculate excess deaths, adjusting for seasonality and secular trends and compared excess deaths to the official COVID-19 mortality count. Results. We found an initial decline of 26% in mortality rates during the first weeks of the pandemic in 2020, compared with 2015 to 2019. These declines were sustained through October 2020 for the population younger than 20 years and for deaths in public spaces and returned to normal from July onward in the population aged 20 to 39 years. We found a peak of 73% excess mortality in mid-July, especially in the population aged 40 years or older. We estimated a total of 8036 excess deaths (95% confidence interval = 7935, 8137) in 2020, 46% higher than the official COVID-19 mortality count. Conclusions. The extent of this health crisis is underestimated when COVID-19 confirmed death counts are used. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(10): 1839-1846. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306452).
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COVID-19/mortalidad , Pandemias , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Certificado de Defunción , Femenino , Guatemala/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Salud Pública , SARS-CoV-2 , Distribución por Sexo , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The death of a child affects the well-being of parents and families worldwide, but little is known about the scale of this phenomenon. Using a novel methodology from formal demography applied to data from the 2019 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects, we provide the first global overview of parental bereavement, its magnitude, prevalence, and distribution over age for the 1950-2000 annual birth cohorts of women. We project that the global burden of parental bereavement will be 1.6 times lower for women born in 2000 than for women born in 1955. Accounting for compositional effects, we anticipate the largest improvements in regions of the Global South, where offspring mortality continues to be a common life event. This study quantifies an unprecedented shift in the timing of parental bereavement from reproductive to retirement ages. Women in the 1985 cohort and subsequent cohorts will be more likely to lose an adult child after age 65 than to lose a young child before age 50, reversing a long-standing global trend. "Child death" will increasingly come to mean the death of adult offspring. We project persisting regional inequalities in offspring mortality and in the availability of children in later life, a particular concern for parents dependent on support from their children after retirement. Nevertheless, our analyses suggest a progressive narrowing of the historical gap between the Global North and South in the near future. These developments have profound implications for demographic theory and highlight the need for policies to support bereaved older parents.
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Aflicción , Adulto , Hijos Adultos , Anciano , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Padres , Prevalencia , Jubilación , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Painters are masters in replicating the visual appearance of materials. While the perception of material appearance is not yet fully understood, painters seem to have acquired an implicit understanding of the key visual cues that we need to accurately perceive material properties. In this study, we directly compare the perception of material properties in paintings and in renderings by collecting professional realistic paintings of rendered materials. From both type of images, we collect human judgments of material properties and compute a variety of image features that are known to reflect material properties. Our study reveals that, despite important visual differences between the two types of depiction, material properties in paintings and renderings are perceived very similarly and are linked to the same image features. This suggests that we use similar visual cues independently of the medium and that the presence of such cues is sufficient to provide a good appearance perception of the materials.