Development and validation of a nomogram for 30-day readmission after hip fracture surgery in geriatric patients.

OBJECTIVE: 30-day readmission after hip fracture surgery in the elderly is common and costly. A predictive tool to identify high-risk patients could significantly improve outcomes. This study aims to develop and validate a risk nomogram for 30-day readmission after hip fracture surgery in geriatric patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,249 geriatric hip fracture patients (≥60 years) undergoing surgery at Dandong Central Hospital from October 2011 to October 2023. Using a 7:3 ratio, patients were randomly divided into training (n=877) and validation (n=372) sets. Independent risk factors for 30-day readmission were identified using LASSO regression and logistic regression in the training set. A nomogram was constructed using the identified predictors. Finally, the C-index, ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis were used to validate the model in the training and validation sets respectively. RESULTS: The nomogram was developed based on the 8 predictors of age, prior stroke, chronic liver disease, treatment, uric acid (UA), total protein (TP), albumin (ALB), and pneumonia that were found to be independently associated with 30-day readmission. The nomogram showed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.88 in the training set and 0.84 in the validation set. Calibration curves exhibited good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a nomogram incorporating eight clinical variables to accurately predict the individualized risk of 30-day readmission after hip fracture surgery in elderly patients. The model demonstrated favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. It can help to identify high-risk patients needing additional interventions to prevent avoidable hospital readmissions.

Development and validation of a nomogram for urinary tract infection in geriatric patients with hip fracture: a retrospective study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to develop and validate a risk nomogram for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in geriatric patients with hip fractures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 900 geriatric patients who underwent hip fracture surgery at Dandong Central Hospital between June 2017 and June 2023 were systematically collected. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (70%, n=632) and a validation set (30%, n=268) for model development and validation, respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the independent risk factors associated with UTIs. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a UTI nomogram prediction model was developed and evaluated in the training and validation sets using the C-index, ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis to assess discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility, respectively. RESULTS: Out of the 900 participants, 24.6% were diagnosed with UTIs. The nomogram was developed based on 9 predictors that were found to be independently associated with UTI. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicting UTI in geriatric patients with hip fractures was 0.829 in the training set and 0.803 in the validation set. Following internal verification, the modified C-index remained at 0.829. Furthermore, the nomogram's calibration plot and decision curve analysis demonstrated good performance in both the training and validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: The established and validated nomogram provides a reliable and convenient tool for predicting UTI risk in geriatric patients with hip fractures. This model facilitates the early identification of high-risk patients and offers guidance for implementing targeted preventive interventions.

[History and development of carbonization of Chinese materia medica and exploration on its mechanism of hemostatic action].

The first material recorded about hair charcoal is seen in Nei jing (Inner Canon). It has a history of over 2 000 years for the carbonization of Chinese materia medica. There were controversies on this matter and its clinical application was seldom seen and underdeveloped. After the Yuan Dynasty, the main theory of carbonic herbs for hemostasis, and keeping the nature of the medicines after carbonization was gradually formed, and physicians of generations began to conduct in-depth research. Through repeated practice and verification, people summed up the suitable species of Chinese materia medica and its principle for carbonization. The methods and degree of carbonization of Chinese materia medica are reasonably discussed, with its principle and basis for application primarily interpreted.