Placebo effects in randomized trials of pharmacological and neurostimulation interventions for mental disorders: An umbrella review.

There is a growing literature exploring the placebo response within specific mental disorders, but no overarching quantitative synthesis of this research has analyzed evidence across mental disorders. We carried out an umbrella review of meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of biological treatments (pharmacotherapy or neurostimulation) for mental disorders. We explored whether placebo effect size differs across distinct disorders, and the correlates of increased placebo effects. Based on a pre-registered protocol, we searched Medline, PsycInfo, EMBASE, and Web of Knowledge up to 23.10.2022 for systematic reviews and/or meta-analyses reporting placebo effect sizes in psychopharmacological or neurostimulation RCTs. Twenty meta-analyses, summarising 1,691 RCTs involving 261,730 patients, were included. Placebo effect size varied, and was large in alcohol use disorder (g = 0.90, 95% CI [0.70, 1.09]), depression (g = 1.10, 95% CI [1.06, 1.15]), restless legs syndrome (g = 1.41, 95% CI [1.25, 1.56]), and generalized anxiety disorder (d = 1.85, 95% CI [1.61, 2.09]). Placebo effect size was small-to-medium in obsessive-compulsive disorder (d = 0.32, 95% CI [0.22, 0.41]), primary insomnia (g = 0.35, 95% CI [0.28, 0.42]), and schizophrenia spectrum disorders (standardized mean change = 0.33, 95% CI [0.22, 0.44]). Correlates of larger placebo response in multiple mental disorders included later publication year (opposite finding for ADHD), younger age, more trial sites, larger sample size, increased baseline severity, and larger active treatment effect size. Most (18 of 20) meta-analyses were judged 'low' quality as per AMSTAR-2. Placebo effect sizes varied substantially across mental disorders. Future research should explore the sources of this variation. We identified important gaps in the literature, with no eligible systematic reviews/meta-analyses of placebo response in stress-related disorders, eating disorders, behavioural addictions, or bipolar mania.

Methotrexate to treat hand osteoarthritis with synovitis (METHODS): an Australian, multisite, parallel-group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Hand osteoarthritis is a disabling condition with few effective therapies. Hand osteoarthritis with synovitis is a common inflammatory phenotype associated with pain. We aimed to examine the efficacy and safety of methotrexate at 6 months in participants with hand osteoarthritis and synovitis. METHODS: In this multisite, parallel-group, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, participants (aged 40-75 years) with hand osteoarthritis (Kellgren and Lawrence grade ≥2 in at least one joint) and MRI-detected synovitis of grade 1 or more were recruited from the community in Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, and Perth, Australia. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) using block randomisation, stratified by study site and self-reported sex, to receive methotrexate 20 mg or identical placebo orally once weekly for 6 months. The primary outcome was pain reduction (measured with a 100 mm visual analogue scale; VAS) in the study hand at 6 months assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety outcomes were assessed in all randomly assigned participants. This trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12617000877381). FINDINGS: Between Nov 22, 2017, and Nov 8, 2021, of 202 participants who were assessed for eligibility, 97 (48%) were randomly assigned to receive methotrexate (n=50) or placebo (n=47). 68 (70%) of 97 participants were female and 29 (30%) were male. 42 (84%) of 50 participants in the methotrexate group and 40 (85%) of 47 in the placebo group provided primary outcome data. The mean change in VAS pain at 6 months was -15·2 mm (SD 24·0) in the methotrexate group and -7·7 mm (25·3) in the placebo group, with a mean between-group difference of -9·9 (95% CI -19·3 to -0·6; p=0·037) and an effect size (standardised mean difference) of 0·45 (0·03 to 0·87). Adverse events occurred in 31 (62%) of 50 participants in the methotrexate group and 28 (60%) of 47 participants in the placebo group. INTERPRETATION: Treatment of hand osteoarthritis and synovitis with 20 mg methotrexate for 6 months had a moderate but potentially clinically meaningful effect on reducing pain, providing proof of concept that methotrexate might have a role in the management of hand osteoarthritis with an inflammatory phenotype. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Improving Prognostication in Pulmonary Hypertension Using AI-quantified Fibrosis and Radiologic Severity Scoring at Baseline CT.

Background There is clinical need to better quantify lung disease severity in pulmonary hypertension (PH), particularly in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) and PH associated with lung disease (PH-LD). Purpose To quantify fibrosis on CT pulmonary angiograms using an artificial intelligence (AI) model and to assess whether this approach can be used in combination with radiologic scoring to predict survival. Materials and Methods This retrospective multicenter study included adult patients with IPAH or PH-LD who underwent incidental CT imaging between February 2007 and January 2019. Patients were divided into training and test cohorts based on the institution of imaging. The test cohort included imaging examinations performed in 37 external hospitals. Fibrosis was quantified using an established AI model and radiologically scored by radiologists. Multivariable Cox regression adjusted for age, sex, World Health Organization functional class, pulmonary vascular resistance, and diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide was performed. The performance of predictive models with or without AI-quantified fibrosis was assessed using the concordance index (C index). Results The training and test cohorts included 275 (median age, 68 years [IQR, 60-75 years]; 128 women) and 246 (median age, 65 years [IQR, 51-72 years]; 142 women) patients, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that AI-quantified percentage of fibrosis was associated with an increased risk of patient mortality in the training cohort (hazard ratio, 1.01 [95% CI: 1.00, 1.02]; P = .04). This finding was validated in the external test cohort (C index, 0.76). The model combining AI-quantified fibrosis and radiologic scoring showed improved performance for predicting patient mortality compared with a model including radiologic scoring alone (C index, 0.67 vs 0.61; P < .001). Conclusion Percentage of lung fibrosis quantified on CT pulmonary angiograms by an AI model was associated with increased risk of mortality and showed improved performance for predicting patient survival when used in combination with radiologic severity scoring compared with radiologic scoring alone. © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article.

Systematic pulmonary embolism follow-up increases diagnostic rates of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension and identifies less severe disease: results from the ASPIRE Registry.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic rates and risk factors for the subsequent development of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) following pulmonary embolism (PE) are not well defined. METHODS: Over a 10-year period (2010-2020), consecutive patients attending a PE follow-up clinic in Sheffield, UK (population 554 600) and all patients diagnosed with CTEPH at a pulmonary hypertension (PH) referral centre in Sheffield (referral population estimated 15-20 million) were included. RESULTS: Of 1956 patients attending the Sheffield PE clinic 3 months following a diagnosis of acute PE, 41 were diagnosed with CTEPH with a cumulative incidence of 2.10%, with 1.89% diagnosed within 2 years. Of 809 patients presenting with pulmonary hypertension (PH) and diagnosed with CTEPH, 32 were Sheffield residents and 777 were non-Sheffield residents. Patients diagnosed with CTEPH at the PE follow-up clinic had shorter symptom duration (p<0.01), better exercise capacity (p<0.05) and less severe pulmonary haemodynamics (p<0.01) compared with patients referred with suspected PH. Patients with no major transient risk factors present at the time of acute PE had a significantly higher risk of CTEPH compared with patients with major transient risk factors (OR 3.6, 95% CI 1.11-11.91; p=0.03). The presence of three computed tomography (CT) features of PH in combination with two or more out of four features of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary disease at the index PE was found in 19% of patients who developed CTEPH and in 0% of patients who did not. Diagnostic rates and pulmonary endarterectomy (PEA) rates were higher at 13.2 and 3.6 per million per year, respectively, for Sheffield residents compared with 3.9-5.2 and 1.7-2.3 per million per year, respectively, for non-Sheffield residents. CONCLUSIONS: In the real-world setting a dedicated PE follow-up pathway identifies patients with less severe CTEPH and increases population-based CTEPH diagnostic and PEA rates. At the time of acute PE diagnosis the absence of major transient risk factors, CT features of PH and chronic thromboembolism are risk factors for a subsequent diagnosis of CTEPH.

Validation of a new glucocorticoid-specific Patient-Reported Outcome Questionnaire (the Steroid PRO).

OBJECTIVES: Glucocorticoids used in the treatment of inflammatory rheumatic conditions can impact on health-related quality of life. An underpinning qualitative study developed a long-list of candidate items for a treatment-specific patient-reported outcome (PRO) measure. The objective of this paper is to determine scale structure and psychometric properties of the Steroid PRO. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of adults from the UK, USA, Australia and New Zealand, taking glucocorticoids for a rheumatic disease. Initial survey collected demographics, clinical information, 40 Steroid PRO candidate items and EuroQol-5 Dimensions- 5 levels (EQ-5D-5L). Follow-up, 3-5 days later, collected Steroid PRO candidate items and a condition-change ('transition') question. Analysis included Rasch measurement model, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and hypothesis testing for discriminative validity, convergence validity and test-retest reliability. RESULTS: Total responses 946: UK n=743 (79%); USA n=139 (15%); Australia/New Zealand n=64 (7%); mean age 57.6 (SD=13.6); 833 (88%) women. Participants with inflammatory arthritis n=197 (21%), connective tissue disease and/or vasculitis n=402 (42%), giant cell arteritis and/or polymyalgia rheumatica n=347 (37%). Twenty-five items were removed due to lack of fit to Rasch model. Of the remaining items, EFA suggested four subscales: Social impact (4 items); Impact on appearance (3 items); Psychological impact (5 items); Treatment concerns (3 items). Rasch modelling supported a four-subscale structure and total score, confirming construct validity and reliability. Hypothesis testing confirmed discriminant and convergence validity. Intraclass correlation coefficient (total score) was 0.809 demonstrating excellent (test-retest) reliability. CONCLUSIONS: The Steroid PRO is a 15-item, valid and reliable scale for measuring the impact of glucocorticoid therapy in people with rheumatic diseases.

2023 EULAR classification criteria for hand osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to develop classification criteria for overall hand osteoarthritis (OA), interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA based on self-reported data and radiographic features. METHODS: The classification criteria sets were developed in three phases. In phase 1, we identified criteria that discriminated hand OA from controls. In phase 2, we used a consensus-based decision analysis approach to derive a clinician-based evaluation of the relative importance of the criteria. In phase 3, we refined the scoring system, determined the cut-offs for disease classification and compared the sensitivity and specificity of the European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) criteria with the 1990 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. RESULTS: In persons with hand symptoms and no other disease (including psoriasis) or acute injury that can explain the hand symptoms (mandatory criteria), hand OA can be classified based on age, duration of morning stiffness, number of joints with osteophytes and joint space narrowing, and concordance between symptoms and radiographic findings. Using a sum of scores based on each diagnostic element, overall hand OA can be classified if a person achieves 9 or more points on a 0-15 scale. The cut-off for interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA is 8 points. While the EULAR criteria demonstrated better sensitivity than the ACR criteria in the phase 1 data set, the performance of the two criteria sets was similar in two external cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: International experts developed the EULAR criteria to classify overall hand OA, interphalangeal OA and thumb base OA in clinical studies using a rigorous methodology.

Validation of a patient-reported outcome measure for giant cell arteritis.

OBJECTIVES: GCA is systemic vasculitis manifesting as cranial, ocular or large vessel vasculitis. A prior qualitative study developed 40 candidate items to assess the impact of GCA on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to determine final scale structure and measurement properties of the GCA patient reported outcome (GCA-PRO) measure. METHODS: Cross-sectional study included UK patients with clinician-confirmed GCA. They completed 40 candidate items for the GCA-PRO at times 1 and 2 (3 days apart), EQ-5D-5L, ICECAP-A, CAT-PROM5 and self-report of disease activity. Rasch and exploratory factor analyses informed item reduction and established structural validity, reliability and unidimensionality of the final GCA-PRO. Evidence of validity was also established with hypothesis testing (GCA-PRO vs other PRO scores, and between participants with 'active disease' vs those 'in remission') and test-retest reliability. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 428 patients: mean (s.d.) age 74.2 (7.2), 285 (67%) female; 327 (76%) cranial GCA, 114 (26.6%) large vessel vasculitis and 142 (33.2%) ocular involvement. Rasch analysis eliminated 10 candidate GCA items and informed restructuring of response categories into four-point Likert scales. Factor analysis confirmed four domains: acute symptoms (eight items), activities of daily living (seven items), psychological (seven items) and participation (eight items). The overall scale had adequate Rasch model fit (χ2 = 25.219, degrees of freedom = 24, P = 0.394). Convergent validity with EQ5D-5L, ICECAP-A and Cat-PROM5 was confirmed through hypothesis testing. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were excellent. CONCLUSION: The final GCA-PRO is a 30-item, four-domain scale with robust evidence of validity and reliability in measuring HRQoL in people with GCA.

Predictors and prognosis of pulmonary hypertension complicating interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: To identify those with concurrent pulmonary hypertension (PH) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and determine their disease severity, therapeutic approach, and survival. METHODS: Consecutive SSc patients enrolled in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study (ASCS) who were diagnosed on right heart catherisation with pulmonary hypertension were included. Logistic regression was used to determine the associations of ILD with PH hemodynamic parameters and therapeutic approach. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to estimate survival. RESULTS: Of 1,883 SSc patients, 164 (8.7%) developed incident PH over a median follow up of 4.3 (1.7-7.9) years. Of these, 43.9% had concurrent ILD at PH diagnosis (PH-ILD) and 56.1% had Group 1 PAH. Extensive ILD was present at PH diagnosis in 40.3%. Despite these distinct PH cohorts, a similar frequency of each PH cohort was treated with vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis, regardless of the presence or severity of ILD. The majority (87.5%) of those with extensive ILD and PH received upfront vasodilatory therapy at PH diagnosis with no difference in its tolerability or therapy cessation compared with Group 1 PAH. Although vasodilator therapy was not associated with a survival advantage in those with extensive ILD, its use was associated with an improvement in symptoms, physical function, and quality of life (QoL). CONCLUSION: Despite vasodilator therapy, survival in SSc-PH is poor, with the presence of concurrent ILD associated with worse survival. Although vasodilator therapy commenced at PH diagnosis does not portray an improved survival in PH with extensive ILD, it appears well tolerated and may improve symptoms, physical function, and QoL.

Interpersonal Process of Dyadic Coping in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Perspective From the Australian Rheumatology Association Database.

OBJECTIVE: Dyadic coping, the process of coping that transpires between couples challenged by one partner's illness, is an important predictor of disease adjustment and patient well-being. However, the extent of dyadic coping in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) remains unclear. This study examines the effect of dyadic coping on psychological distress and relationship quality from the perspectives of both participants with RA and their spouses. METHODS: Participants and their spouses were invited to participate in an online survey study if they were aged ≥ 18 years and had lived together for more than a year. The survey included the Chronic Pain Grade Scale, Dyadic Coping Inventory, Depression Anxiety Stress Scale, and Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Participants and spouses completed the survey independently. The actor-partner interdependence model was used to analyze the dyadic data. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-three couples participated. Our findings showed that participants who reported higher supportive dyadic coping reported lower depression, anxiety, and stress, and higher relationship quality, whereas participants who reported higher negative dyadic coping reported higher depression, anxiety, and stress, and lower relationship quality. Spouses who reported higher supportive dyadic coping reported higher relationship quality, but no effect on depression, anxiety, and stress was observed. In contrast, spouses who reported higher negative dyadic coping reported higher levels of depression, anxiety, and stress, and lower relationship quality. CONCLUSION: Participants' and spouses' perceptions of supportive and negative dyadic coping closely influenced their psychological distress and relationship quality. Further, having a partner with RA also seemed to affect the spouse, especially when there was a negative dyadic coping pattern.

Tocilizumab use in giant cell arteritis: comparing Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme eligible and ineligible cases in South Australia.

Tocilizumab (TCZ) is increasingly used as a steroid-sparing agent in giant cell arteritis (GCA), but there are strict Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) restrictions for its use in Australia. Patients who do not meet the PBS criteria can obtain TCZ through public hospital individual patient use (IPU) schemes which may not be universally accessible. We compared patients receiving IPU-approved TCZ with patients receiving PBS-subsidised TCZ and found IPU approvals were granted mainly for visual loss, a serious complication of GCA, in patients who otherwise failed to meet PBS criteria. Further studies demonstrating that TCZ is comparatively more effective than prednisolone monotherapy, as well as cost-effective, are needed to substantiate the rationale for expanding PBS approval criteria.

Nursing and allied health workforce in Australian public rheumatology departments is inadequate: a cross-sectional observational study.

Rheumatological conditions are complex and impact many facets of daily life. Management of people with rheumatological conditions can be optimised through multidisciplinary care. However, the current access to nursing and allied health professionals in Australia is unknown. A cross-sectional study of nursing and allied health professionals in Australian public rheumatology departments for adult and paediatric services was conducted. The heads of Australian public rheumatology departments were invited to report the health professionals working within their departments, referral pathways, and barriers to greater multidisciplinary care. A total of 27/39 (69.2%) of the hospitals responded. The most common health professionals within departments were nurses (n = 23; 85.2%) and physiotherapists (n = 10; 37.0%), followed by pharmacists (n = 5; 18.5%), psychologists (n = 4; 14.8%), and occupational therapists (n = 4; 14.8%). No podiatrists were employed within departments. Referral pathways were most common for physiotherapy (n = 20; 74.1%), followed by occupational therapy (n = 15; 55.5%), podiatry (n = 13; 48.1%), and psychology (n = 6; 22%). The mean full-time equivalent of nursing and allied health professionals per 100,000 population in Australia was 0.29. Funding was identified as the most common barrier. In Australia, publicly funded multidisciplinary care from nurses and allied health professionals in rheumatology departments is approximately 1.5 days per week on average. This level of multidisciplinary care is unlikely to meet the needs of rheumatology patients. Research is needed to determine the minimum staffing requirements of nursing and allied health professionals to provide optimal care.

Association between medial meniscal extrusion and knee structural progression in adults with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis - a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between medial meniscal extrusion and structural progression in adults with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: This prospective cohort study examined 176 participants with symptomatic knee OA recruited into a randomised controlled trial. The participants underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the study knee at baseline and approximately 2 years later. Meniscal extrusion, tibial cartilage volume, and tibiofemoral bone marrow lesions (BMLs) were measured from MRI using validated methods. RESULTS: Participants with medial meniscal extrusion ≥ 3 mm had a higher prevalence of lateral tibiofemoral BMLs at baseline (OR = 2.21, 95% CI 1.06-4.61, p = 0.035), and those with medial meniscal extrusion 2-3 mm had a higher likelihood of lateral BML worsening over 2 years (OR = 3.76, 95% CI 1.35-10.52, p = 0.011), compared with those with medial meniscal extrusion < 2 mm. Participants with stable medial meniscal extrusion had a lower likelihood of lateral BML worsening compared with those with regression of medial meniscal extrusion over 2 years (OR = 0.20, 95% CI 0.07-0.56, p = 0.002). There were no associations between medial meniscal extrusion and tibial cartilage volume or medial tibiofemoral BMLs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed associations between medial meniscal extrusion and baseline prevalence and worsening over 2 years of lateral tibiofemoral BMLs in people with symptomatic knee OA. Although the reasons for the lack of associations in the medial compartment are not clear, our results suggest a role of medial meniscal extrusion in predicting structural progression in lateral knee OA and that meniscal extrusion might be a potential target in the management of knee OA.

Krill Oil for Knee Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Knee osteoarthritis is disabling, with few effective treatments. Preliminary evidence suggested that krill oil supplementation improved knee pain, but effects on knee osteoarthritis remain unclear. Objective: To evaluate efficacy of krill oil supplementation, compared with placebo, on knee pain in people with knee osteoarthritis who have significant knee pain and effusion-synovitis. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial in 5 Australian cities. Participants with clinical knee osteoarthritis, significant knee pain, and effusion-synovitis on magnetic resonance imaging were enrolled from December 2016 to June 2019; final follow-up occurred on February 7, 2020. Interventions: Participants were randomized to 2 g/d of krill oil (n = 130) or matching placebo (n = 132) for 24 weeks. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was change in knee pain as assessed by visual analog scale (range, 0-100; 0 indicating least pain; minimum clinically important improvement = 15) over 24 weeks. Results: Of 262 participants randomized (mean age, 61.6 [SD, 9.6] years; 53% women), 222 (85%) completed the trial. Krill oil did not improve knee pain compared with placebo (mean change in VAS score, -19.9 [krill oil] vs -20.2 [placebo]; between-group mean difference, -0.3; 95% CI, -6.9 to 6.4) over 24 weeks. One or more adverse events was reported by 51% in the krill oil group (67/130) and by 54% in the placebo group (71/132). The most common adverse events were musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders, which occurred 32 times in the krill oil group and 42 times in the placebo group, including knee pain (n = 10 with krill oil; n = 9 with placebo), lower extremity pain (n = 1 with krill oil; n = 5 with placebo), and hip pain (n = 3 with krill oil; n = 2 with placebo). Conclusions and Relevance: Among people with knee osteoarthritis who have significant knee pain and effusion-synovitis on magnetic resonance imaging, 2 g/d of daily krill oil supplementation did not improve knee pain over 24 weeks compared with placebo. These findings do not support krill oil for treating knee pain in this population. Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Identifier: ACTRN12616000726459; Universal Trial Number: U1111-1181-7087.

Establishing minimally important differences for cardiac MRI end-points in pulmonary arterial hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) is the gold standard technique to assess biventricular volumes and function, and is increasingly being considered as an end-point in clinical studies. Currently, with the exception of right ventricular (RV) stroke volume and RV end-diastolic volume, there is only limited data on minimally important differences (MIDs) reported for CMR metrics. Our study aimed to identify MIDs for CMR metrics based on US Food and Drug Administration recommendations for a clinical outcome measure that should reflect how a patient "feels, functions or survives". METHODS: Consecutive treatment-naïve patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) between 2010 and 2022 who had two CMR scans (at baseline prior to treatment and 12 months following treatment) were identified from the ASPIRE registry. All patients were followed up for 1 additional year after the second scan. For both scans, cardiac measurements were obtained from a validated fully automated segmentation tool. The MID in CMR metrics was determined using two distribution-based (0.5sd and minimal detectable change) and two anchor-based (change difference and generalised linear model regression) methods benchmarked to how a patient "feels" (emPHasis-10 quality of life questionnaire), "functions" (incremental shuttle walk test) or "survives" for 1-year mortality to changes in CMR measurements. RESULTS: 254 patients with PAH were included (mean±sd age 53±16 years, 79% female and 66% categorised as intermediate risk based on the 2022 European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society risk score). We identified a 5% absolute increase in RV ejection fraction and a 17 mL decrease in RV end-diastolic or end-systolic volumes as the MIDs for improvement. Conversely, a 5% decrease in RV ejection fraction and a 10 mL increase in RV volumes were associated with worsening. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes clinically relevant CMR MIDs for how a patient "feels, functions or survives" in response to PAH treatment. These findings provide further support for the use of CMR as a clinically relevant clinical outcome measure and will aid trial size calculations for studies using CMR.

Plain language summaryPulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a disease of the vessels of the lung that causes their narrowing and stiffening. As a result, the heart pumping blood into these diseased lung vessels has to work harder and eventually gets worn out. PAH can affect patients' ability to function in daily activities and impact their quality of life. It also reduces their life expectancy dramatically. Patients are, therefore, often monitored and undergo several investigations to adapt treatment according to their situation. These investigations include a survey of how a patient feels (the emPHasis-10 questionnaire), functions (walking test) and how well the heart is coping with the disease (MRI of the heart). Until now, it is unclear how changes on MRI of the heart reflect changes in how a patient feels and functions. Our study identified patients that had the emPHasis-10 questionnaire, walking test and MRI of the heart at both the time of PAH diagnosis and one year later. This allowed us to compare how the changes in the different tests relate to each other. And because previous research identified thresholds for important changes in the emPHasis-10 questionnaire and the walking tests, we were able to use these tests as a benchmark for changes in the MRI of the heart. Our study identified thresholds for change on heart MRI that might indicate whether a patient has improved or worsened. This finding might have implications for how patients are monitored in clinical practice and future research on PAH treatments.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis and its impact on survival in systemic sclerosis related interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the frequency of progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) in an incident cohort of systemic sclerosis (SSc) related interstitial lung disease (ILD) and its impact on survival. METHODS: Incident ILD was defined as the new development of characteristic fibrotic changes on chest HRCT scan. PPF was defined as per the 2022 American Thoracic Society. Determinants of PPF were identified using generalised estimating equations. Impact on survival was analysed using accelerated failure time regression modelling. RESULTS: Of our incident SSc-ILD cases, 38.8% (n = 180) experienced PPF within a 12-month period after ILD diagnosis. Determinants of PPF included older age (OR 1.02, 95%CI 1.00-1.03, p= 0.011), dcSSc (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.25, p= 0.024) and SSc specific antibodies (anticentomere antibody OR 0.51, 95%CI 0.29-0.91, p= 0.021 and anti-Scl-70 antibody OR 1.46, 95%CI 1.01-2.09, p= 0.043). Raised CRP was numerically associated with PPF but did not reach statistical significance (OR 1.29, 95%CI 0.99-1.68, p= 0.064) nor did GORD or dysphagia (OR 1.18, 95%CI 0.57-2.42, p= 0.658 and OR 1.17, 95%CI 0.57-2.40, p= 0.664 respectively). The presence of PPF significantly impacted survival in SSc-ILD (hazard ratio 2.66, 95%CI 1.59-4.41, p< 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: PPF occurred in a third of our incident SSc-ILD cohort; however, its occurrence was significantly associated with mortality indicating an at-risk group who may be suitable for earlier introduction of immunosuppressive and/or antifibrotic therapy.

Mortality estimates and excess mortality in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine long-term (20 year) survival in RA patients enrolled in the Australian Rheumatology Association Database (ARAD). METHODS: ARAD patients with RA and data linkage consent who were diagnosed from 1995 onwards were included. Death data were obtained through linkage to the Australian National Death Index. Results were compared with age-, gender- and calendar year-matched Australian population mortality rates. Analysis included both the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) and relative survival models. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) at 20 years was calculated as a measure of life lost. Cause-specific SMRs (CS-SMRs) were estimated for International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision cause of death classifications. RESULTS: A total of 1895 RA patients were included; 74% were female, baseline median age 50 years (interquartile range 41-58), with 204 deaths. There was no increase in mortality over the first 10 years of follow up, but at 20 years the SMR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.30, 1.71) and the relative survival was 94% (95% CI 91, 97). The difference between observed (18.41 years) and expected (18.68 years) RMST was 4 months. Respiratory conditions were an important underlying cause of death in RA, primarily attributable to pneumonia [CS-SMR 5.2 (95% CI 2.3, 10.3)] and interstitial lung disease [CS-SMR 7.6 (95% CI 3.0, 14.7)], however, coronary heart disease [CS-SMR 0.82 (95% CI 0.42, 1.4)] and neoplasms [CS-SMR 1.2 (95% CI 0.89, 1.5)] were not. CONCLUSION: Mortality risk in this RA cohort accrues over time and is moderately increased at 20 years of follow-up. Respiratory diseases may have supplanted cardiovascular diseases as a major contributor to this mortality gap.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in inflammatory arthritis patients: serial surveys from a large longitudinal national Australian cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To determine COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy rates in inflammatory arthritis patients and identify factors associated with changing vaccine hesitancy over time. METHODS: This investigation was a prospective cohort study of inflammatory arthritis patients from community and public hospital outpatient rheumatology clinics enrolled in the Australian Rheumatology Association Database (ARAD). Two surveys were conducted, one immediately prior to (pre-pandemic) and another approximately 1 year after the start of the pandemic (follow-up). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine hesitancy was measured at follow-up, and general vaccine hesitancy was inferred pre-pandemic; these were used to identify factors associated with fixed and changing vaccine beliefs, including sources of information and broader beliefs about medication. RESULTS: Of the 594 participants who completed both surveys, 74 (12%) were COVID-19 vaccine hesitant. This was associated with pre-pandemic beliefs about medications being harmful (P < 0.001) and overused (P = 0.002), with stronger beliefs resulting in vaccine hesitancy persistent over two time points (P = 0.008, P = 0.005). For those not vaccine hesitant pre-pandemic, the development of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was associated with a lower likelihood of seeking out vaccine information from health-care professionals (P < 0.001). COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was not associated with new influenza vaccine hesitancy (P = 0.138). CONCLUSION: In this study of vaccine beliefs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in inflammatory arthritis patients varied, depending on vaccine attitudes immediately prior to the start of the pandemic. Fixed beliefs reflected broader views about medications, while fluid beliefs were highly influenced by whether they sought out information from health-care professionals, including rheumatologists.

Association between popliteal artery wall thickness and structural progression in patients with symptomatic knee osteoarthritis.

OBJECTIVE: There is increasing evidence for the involvement of vascular disease in the pathogenesis of knee OA. Popliteal artery wall thickness can be used as a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis. We examined the association between popliteal artery wall thickness and knee cartilage volume in individuals with symptomatic knee OA. METHODS: This prospective cohort study analysed 176 participants from a randomized placebo-controlled trial examining the effect of atorvastatin on structural progression in knee OA. The participants underwent MRI of the study knee at baseline and 2-year follow-up. Popliteal artery wall thickness and tibial cartilage volume were measured from MRI using validated methods. The top quartile of the rate of tibial cartilage volume loss was defined as rapid progression. RESULTS: At baseline, every 10% increase in popliteal artery wall thickness was associated with 120.8 mm3 (95% CI 5.4, 236.2, P = 0.04) lower of medial tibial cartilage volume and 151.9 mm3 (95% CI 12.1, 291.7, P = 0.03) lower of lateral tibial cartilage volume. Longitudinally, for every 10% increase in popliteal artery wall thickness, the annual rate of medial tibial cartilage volume loss was increased by 1.14% (95% CI 0.09%, 2.20%, P = 0.03), and there was a 2.28-fold (95% CI 1.07, 4.83, P = 0.03) risk of rapid progression of medial tibial cartilage loss, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, tibial bone area, smoking, vigorous physical activity, and intervention group allocation. CONCLUSION: The findings support a role for vascular pathology in the progression of knee OA. Targeting atherosclerosis has the potential to improve outcomes in knee OA.

Measuring the impact of steroid therapy on health-related quality of life in patients with rheumatic diseases: international development of a glucocorticoid treatment-specific patient-reported outcome measure.

OBJECTIVES: Glucocorticoids (GCs) ('steroids') are used to treat rheumatic diseases but adverse effects are common. We aimed to explore the impact of GC therapy on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), to inform the development of a treatment-specific patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) for use in clinical trials and practice. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with patients from the UK, USA and Australia, treated for a rheumatic condition with GCs in the last 2 years. Purposive sampling was used to select participants with a range of demographic and disease features. An initial conceptual framework informed interview prompts and cues. Interviews elicited GC-related physical and psychological symptoms and salient aspects of HRQoL in relation to GC therapy. Interview data were analysed inductively to develop initial individual themes and domains. Candidate questionnaire items were developed and refined. RESULTS: Sixty semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted (UK n = 34, USA n = 10, Australia n = 16). The mean age was 58 years; 39/60 were female; and 18 rheumatic diseases were represented. Some 126 individual themes were identified and organized into six domains: physical symptoms; psychological symptoms; psychological impact of steroids; impact of steroids on participation; impact of steroids on relationships; and benefits of steroids. Candidate questionnaire items were tested and refined by piloting with patient research partners, iterative rounds of cognitive interviews and linguistic translatability assessment, informing a draft questionnaire. CONCLUSION: We describe an international qualitative study to develop candidate items for a treatment-specific PROM for patients with rheumatic diseases. A future survey will enable the validation of a final version of the PROM.

The burden of low back pain and its association with socio-demographic variables in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is the most common musculoskeletal disorder globally. Providing region- and national-specific information on the burden of low back pain is critical for local healthcare policy makers. The present study aimed to report, compare, and contextualize the prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of low back pain in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Publicly available data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The burden of LBP was reported for the 21 countries located in the MENA region, from 1990 to 2019. All estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population, together with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: In 2019, the age-standardised point prevalence and incidence rate per 100,000 in MENA were 7668.2 (95% UI 6798.0 to 8363.3) and 3215.9 (95%CI 2838.8 to 3638.3), which were 5.8% (4.3 to 7.4) and 4.4% (3.4 to 5.5) lower than in 1990, respectively. Furthermore, the regional age-standardised YLD rate in 2019 was 862.0 (605.5 to 1153.3) per 100,000, which was 6.0% (4.2 to 7.7) lower than in 1990. In 2019, Turkey [953.6 (671.3 to 1283.5)] and Lebanon [727.2 (511.5 to 966.0)] had the highest and lowest age-standardised YLD rates, respectively. There was no country in the MENA region that showed increases in the age-standardised prevalence, incidence or YLD rates of LBP over the measurement period. Furthermore, in 2019 the number of prevalent cases were highest in the 35-39 age group, with males having a higher number of cases in all age groups. In addition, the age-standardised YLD rates for males in the MENA region were higher than the global estimates in almost all age groups, in both 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, the burden of LBP was not associated with the level of socio-economic development during the measurement period. CONCLUSION: The burden attributable to LBP in the MENA region decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the burden among males was higher than the global average. Consequently, more integrated healthcare interventions are needed to more effectively alleviate the burden of low back pain in this region.