RESUMEN
AIM: To measure the level of radiologists' performance in lung cancer detection, and to explore radiologists' performance in cancer specialised and non-specialised centres. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty radiologists read 60 chest computed tomography (CT) examinations. Thirty cases had surgically or biopsy-proven lung cancer and 30 were cancer-free cases. The cancer cases were validated by four expert radiologists who located the malignant lung nodules. Reader performance was evaluated by calculating sensitivity, location sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). In addition, sensitivity at fixed specificity (0.794) was computed from each reader's estimated ROC curve. RESULTS: The radiologists had a mean sensitivity of 0.749, sensitivity at fixed specificity of 0.744, location sensitivity of 0.666, specificity of 0.81 and AUC of 0.846. Radiologists in the specialised and non-specialised cancer centres had the following (specialised, non-specialised) pairs of values: sensitivity=(0.80, 0.719); sensitivity for fixed 0.794 specificity=(0.752, 0.740); location sensitivity=(0.712, 0.637); specificity=(0.794, 0.82) and AUC=(0.846, 0.846). CONCLUSION: The efficacy of radiologists was comparable to other studies. Furthermore, AUC outcomes were similar for specialised and non-specialised cancer centre radiologists, suggesting they have similar discriminatory ability and that the higher sensitivity and lower specificity for specialised-centre radiologists can be attributed to them being less conservative in interpreting case images.
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Competencia Clínica/estadística & datos numéricos , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico por imagen , Radiólogos/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Instituciones Oncológicas/normas , Instituciones Oncológicas/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Radiografía Torácica/normas , Radiografía Torácica/estadística & datos numéricos , Radiólogos/normas , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X/normas , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: A novel impaction fracture insult technique, developed for modeling post-traumatic osteoarthritis in porcine hocks in vivo, was tested to determine the extent to which it could replicate the cell-level cartilage pathology in human clinical intra-articular fractures. DESIGN: Eight fresh porcine hocks (whole-joint specimens with fully viable chondrocytes) were subjected to fracture insult. From the fractured distal tibial surfaces, osteoarticular fragments were immediately sampled and cultured in vitro for 48 h. These samples were analyzed for the distribution and progression of chondrocyte death, using the Live/Dead assay. Five control joints, in which "fractures" were simulated by means of surgical osteotomy, were also similarly analyzed. RESULTS: In the impaction-fractured joints, chondrocyte death was concentrated in regions adjacent to fracture lines (near-fracture regions), as evidenced by fractional cell death significantly higher (P < 0.0001) than in central non-fracture (control) regions. Although nominally similar spatial distribution patterns were identified in the osteotomized joints, fractional cell death in the near-osteotomy regions was nine-fold lower (P < 0.0001) than in the near-fracture regions. Cell death in the near-fracture regions increased monotonically during 48 h after impaction, dominantly within 1 mm from the fracture lines. CONCLUSION: The impaction-fractured joints exhibited chondrocyte death characteristics reasonably consistent with those in human intra-articular fractures, but were strikingly different from those in "fractures" simulated by surgical osteotomy. These observations support promise of this new impaction fracture technique as a mechanical insult modality to replicate the pathophysiology of human intra-articular fractures in large animal joints in vivo.
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Cartílago Articular , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Fracturas Intraarticulares/fisiopatología , Articulaciones Tarsianas/fisiopatología , Animales , Cartílago Articular/lesiones , Cartílago Articular/fisiopatología , Muerte Celular , Condrocitos/patología , Condrocitos/fisiología , Osteotomía/efectos adversos , PorcinosRESUMEN
Stress has been implicated in both somatic and mental disorders. The mechanisms by which stress leads to poor health are largely unknown. However, studies in animals suggest that chronic stress causes high basal cortisol and low cortisol response to acute stressors and that such changes may contribute to disease. Previous studies of the Transcendental Meditation (TM) technique as a possible means of countering effects of stress have reported altered levels of several hormones both during the practice and longitudinally after regular practice of this technique. In this prospective, random assignment study, changes in baseline levels and acute responses to laboratory stressors were examined for four hormones-cortisol, growth hormone, thyroid-stimulating hormone and testosterone-before and after 4 months of either the TM technique or a stress education control condition. At pre- and post-test, blood was withdrawn continuously through an indwelling catheter, and plasma or serum samples were frozen for later analysis by radioimmunoassay. The results showed significantly different changes for the two groups, or trends toward significance, for each hormone over the 4 months. In the TM group, but not in the controls, basal cortisol level and average cortisol across the stress session decreased from pre- to post-test. Cortisol responsiveness to stressors, however, increased in the TM group compared to controls. The baselines and/or stress responsiveness for TSH and GH changed in opposite directions for the groups, as did the testosterone baseline. Overall, the cortisol and testosterone results appear to support previous data suggesting that repeated practice of the TM technique reverses effects of chronic stress significant for health. The observed group difference in the change of GH regulation may derive from the cortisol differences, while the TSH results are not related easily to earlier findings on the effects of chronic stress.
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Adaptación Psicológica/fisiología , Nivel de Alerta/fisiología , Hormona de Crecimiento Humana/sangre , Hidrocortisona/sangre , Meditación , Testosterona/sangre , Tirotropina/sangre , Adulto , Estudios de Seguimiento , Educación en Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Prospectivos , Valores de Referencia , Estrés Psicológico/complicacionesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The psychological and physical response to moderate life stressors among older adults has not been well characterized. This research examines effects of voluntary housing relocation on distress and immune function in healthy older adults as a model for studying the effects of moderate life stress. METHODS: Thirty older adults moving to congregate living facilities were assessed 1 month premove, 2 weeks postmove, and 3 months postmove. Twenty-eight nonmoving control subjects were assessed at similar time points. Subjects completed psychosocial questionnaires and had early morning blood draws in their homes. Blood samples were assayed for natural killer cell cytotoxicity (NKCC), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and IgG antibody titers to the Epstein Barr virus (EBV) viral capsid antigen. RESULTS: Movers demonstrated decreased vigor and elevated thought intrusion 1 month premove and 2 weeks postmove. By the 3-month follow-up, vigor increased, and intrusion decreased to levels commensurate with the controls. Averaged across all time points, movers showed lower NKCC than controls; however, post-hoc analyses indicate that by the 3-month follow-up time point, these differences were no longer significant. There were no differences between groups in IL-6 or in EBV antibody titers. Independent of the effects of group, higher levels of vigor were associated with greater NKCC at all assessments and with lower EBV titers at 2 weeks postmove. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that in general, healthy older adults recover well psychologically from moderate. temporary life stressors such as moving. Whereas movers showed generally lower NKCC than controls, IL-6 and EBV antibody titers appeared not to be strongly affected by the stress of moving.
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Adaptación Psicológica , Envejecimiento/inmunología , Envejecimiento/psicología , Vivienda , Inmunocompetencia , Estrés Fisiológico/inmunología , Estrés Fisiológico/psicología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Femenino , Humanos , Relaciones Interpersonales , Células Asesinas Naturales/fisiología , MasculinoRESUMEN
The capability to reliably predict long-term in vivo wear of polyethylene would be of great value for the early identification of problematic total hip designs. Formal quantitative estimates of long-term polyethylene wear were made from a series of 197 patients who had a total hip arthroplasty and who were followed for a minimum of 10 years; the estimates were based on the wear that was apparent radiographically at nominally 2 years after the operation. A newly developed digital image-analysis edge-detection procedure was applied to 1,237 archived follow-up radiographs. The edge-detection measurements were analyzed with a robust regression random-coefficients statistical formulation developed especially to address the distributions of wear rate observed across this population over time. Formal regression equations were reported, which can be used to estimate late-wear depth for a patient radiographed at a 2-year follow-up visit. Series wide, the correlation between predicted and observed wear depths was 0.73 at 4 years, with a correlation decline of approximately 0.03 per additional year.
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Artroplastia de Reemplazo de Cadera , Articulación de la Cadera/diagnóstico por imagen , Ensayo de Materiales , Polietilenos , Anciano , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Procesamiento de Imagen Asistido por Computador , Modelos Lineales , Masculino , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , RadiografíaRESUMEN
A novel digital edge-detection computer technique was developed to measure polyethylene wear after total hip arthroplasty. The new method objectively infers the margins of the component by evaluating gradients of gray-scale intensity on digitized images of the radiographs. Compared with previous methods for measurement of wear, digital edge detection substantially reduces observer subjectivity. The technique was validated directly by measuring wear artificially produced by spherical-front milling of polyethylene liners in a benchtop series. Under such conditions, digital edge detection proved 6.4 times more accurate and 7.1 times more reproducible than manual measurement with conventional circular templates. In addition, clinical application of the new digital imaging technique was illustrated in a series of forty-three patients in whom a metal-backed acetabular cup had been inserted with cement. A random-coefficients prediction algorithm was invoked to estimate long-term wear (mean late rate of wear for the cohort, 0.087 millimeter per year at a mean of 118 months after the operation) on the basis of measurements of short-term wear (mean early rate of wear for the cohort, 0.154 millimeter per year at a mean of twenty-four months).
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Prótesis de Cadera , Procesamiento de Imagen Asistido por Computador , Polietilenos , Falla de Prótesis , Algoritmos , Cementos para Huesos , Estudios de Cohortes , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Diseño de Prótesis , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Programas InformáticosRESUMEN
PURPOSE: To determine whether practice of the Transcendental Meditation (TM) technique can affect medical expenses. DESIGN: The evaluation was a quasi experimental, longitudinal, cost-minimization study. SETTING: Province of Quebec, Canada. SUBJECTS: This study involved 1418 Quebec health insurance enrollees who practiced the TM technique compared with 1418 subjects who were randomly selected from enrollees of the same age, sex, and region. TM subjects had chosen to begin the technique prior to learning about and choosing to enter the study. MEASURES: This 14-year, pre- and postintervention study retrospectively assessed government payments to physicians for treating the TM and comparison groups. Other medical expense data for individuals were unavailable. Data were inflation-adjusted. For each subject, least squares regression slopes were calculated to estimate pre- and postintervention annual rates of change in payments. We compared the groups' means and 1%, 5%, and 10% trimmed means (robust estimators) of the slopes. RESULTS: Before starting meditation, the yearly rate of increase in payments between groups was not significantly different (p > .17). After commencing meditation, the TM group's mean payments declined 1% to 2% annually. The comparison group's payments increased up to 11.73% annually over 6 years. There was a 13.78% mean annual difference (p = .0017). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the TM technique reduced payments to physicians between 5% and 13% annually relative to comparison subjects over 6 years. Randomized studies are recommended.
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Gastos en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Reembolso de Seguro de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Meditación/psicología , Médicos/economía , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Médicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Quebec , Distribución Aleatoria , Estudios Retrospectivos , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
PURPOSE: This study evaluated whether governmental medical payments in Quebec were affected by the Transcendental Meditation (TM) technique. DESIGN: This retrospective study used a pre- and postintervention design in which government payments for physicians' services were reviewed for 3 years before and up to 7 years after subjects started the technique. Payment data were adjusted for aging and year-specific variation (including inflation) using normative data. No separate control group was used; thus it is impossible to determine whether the changes were caused by the TM program or some other factor. SUBJECTS: A volunteer group of 677 provincial health insurance enrollees was evaluated. The subjects had chosen to practice the TM technique before they were selected to enter the study. The subjects (348 men, 329 women) had diverse occupations. Their average age was 38 years and ranged from 18 to 71 years at the start of the TM program. INTERVENTION: The TM technique of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi is a standardized procedure practiced for 15 to 20 minutes twice daily while sitting comfortably with eyes closed. SETTING: Province of Quebec, Canada. RESULTS: During the 3 years before starting the TM program, the adjusted payments to physicians for treating the subjects did not change significantly. After beginning TM practice, subjects' adjusted expenses declined significantly. The several methods used to assess the rate of decline showed estimates ranging from 5% to 7% annually. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggests that the TM technique reduces government payments to physicians. However, because of the sampling method used, the generalizability of these results to wider populations could not be evaluated.
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Reembolso de Seguro de Salud/economía , Meditación , Médicos/economía , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Reembolso de Seguro de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Médicos/estadística & datos numéricos , Quebec , Estudios Retrospectivos , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: This in vitro study examined radiographic fractal dimension changes in alveolar process bone during simulated osteoporosis. STUDY DESIGN: Ten specimens of human maxillary alveolar process bone were progressively decalcified, and the percentage of calcium lost at each decalcification stage was quantified. Four radiographs of each specimen, together with an aluminum step-wedge, were exposed at 70 kVp at each stage. The test set of 560 radiographs was digitized, identical bony regions of interest were selected from the density-corrected images of each specimen, the regions were digitally filtered to reduce film-grain noise, and fractal dimension was computed on a line-to-line basis. Correlation analysis quantified the relationship between calcium loss and fractal dimension change. Analysis of variance and Duncan's multiple range test determined whether a difference existed in fractal dimension computed from images at x-ray beam angulations of -5, 0, and +5 degrees. RESULTS: A strong correlation (average r = -0.94, p < or = 0.0037) was found between generalized demineralization and decreasing fractal dimension. In every bone sample fractal dimension changed significantly (p < or = 0.0189) with angular change. CONCLUSIONS: Radiographic fractal dimension holds promise for detecting simulated osteoporosis in the maxilla under ideal conditions, but the sensitivity of fractal dimension to small x-ray beam angular change renders its clinical application questionable.
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Proceso Alveolar/diagnóstico por imagen , Fractales , Enfermedades Maxilares/diagnóstico por imagen , Osteoporosis/diagnóstico por imagen , Análisis de Varianza , Calcio/análisis , Técnica de Descalcificación , Humanos , Técnicas In Vitro , Intensificación de Imagen Radiográfica , Sensibilidad y Especificidad , Estadísticas no Paramétricas , Propiedades de SuperficieRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: Our goal in this investigation was to examine the mandibular bone density and radiographic textural changes and the relationship between mandibular and spinal bone mineral density in an osteoporotic rabbit model. STUDY DESIGN: Three adult female New Zealand white rabbits in each of 4 groups received daily injections of cortisone acetate at a dosage of 0.0 (control), 3.0, 7.5, or 15.0 mg/kg for 4 weeks. The rabbits were then killed, and the mandible and spine of each animal were removed. Digital radiographs (70 kVp, 10 mA, 8 impulses) of the hemimandibles and spines were made. Lateral and anteroposterior bone densities of the lumbar spine (L2) were calculated, and average mandibular interdental bone density, fractal dimension, and gradient values were calculated. RESULTS: Correlation analysis revealed that cumulative steroid dose was strongly related to mandibular bone density (r = -0.80, P <.01), moderately related to mandibular fractal dimension (r = -0.61, P <. 05), and moderately related to anteroposterior lumbar spine density (r = -0.64, P <.05). Moderate correlations were found between mandibular interdental bone density and spinal density (r = 0.56, P <.05), but mandibular fractal dimension was not related to spinal density. CONCLUSIONS: In osteoporotic female rabbits, mandibular bone mineral density decreases in relation to spinal density and cumulative steroid dose. Mandibular fractal dimension decreases with cumulative steroid dose but is not significantly related to either mandibular density or spinal density.
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Mandíbula/diagnóstico por imagen , Osteoporosis/diagnóstico por imagen , Columna Vertebral/diagnóstico por imagen , Absorciometría de Fotón , Animales , Densidad Ósea , Cortisona/análogos & derivados , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Femenino , Fractales , Osteoporosis/inducido químicamente , Osteoporosis/patología , ConejosRESUMEN
To be consistent, censored data linear regression estimators typically require a correctly specified linear regression function and independent and identically distributed errors. For uncensored data one can assess these model assumptions informally by examining plots of the residuals against the independent variables or fitted values. In this paper I propose plots for censored data analogous to these uncensored data residual plots. One can use such plots in the same way as their uncensored data counterparts for checking model assumptions; if the model assumptions are correct, then the plots should exhibit a random scatter. I show that the proposed plots are useful in selecting a linear regression model for the Stanford heart transplant data.
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Modelos Lineales , Trasplante de Corazón/mortalidad , Humanos , Análisis de SupervivenciaRESUMEN
In this cross-sectional study, registered nurses from 36 emergency rooms completed an abridged version of the Organizational Culture Inventory (Cooke & Lafferty, 1989) and responded to nine hypothetical conflict vignettes. Stepwise regressions were performed with nurse conflict style intentions as dependent variables and 10 independent variable (three sets of norms, five measures of conflict styles expected to be used by the physician, gender, and education). Nurses' expectations for physicians to collaborate and strong constructive and aggressive norms were found to explain a moderate amount of variance (32%) in nurses' intentions to collaborate in conflicts conducive to nurse-physician collaboration. The findings of this study provide support for the proposed theoretical framework and can be used to design interventions that promote nurse-physician collaboration.
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Conflicto Psicológico , Conducta Cooperativa , Relaciones Interprofesionales , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Enfermería de Urgencia , Femenino , Humanos , Illinois , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos Teóricos , Personal de Enfermería en Hospital/psicología , Cultura OrganizacionalRESUMEN
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: All-ceramic crowns are being used extensively. Little data are available on their clinical performance. PURPOSE: This study evaluated the clinical performance of In-Ceram (Vita Zahnfabrik) crowns. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-one patients (16 men, 25 women; mean age 47.3 years, range 18 to 77 years) were examined with a total of 80 In-Ceram all-ceramic crowns fabricated at the University of Iowa College of Dentistry from 1994 to 1997. The percentage distribution for crowns included: 67% anterior single crowns, 26% posterior single crowns, 6% anterior implant crowns, and 1% posterior implant crowns. This study documented the integrity of the junction between crown and tooth, color match to adjacent teeth, secondary dental caries, wear of crown and opposing dentition, and visible cracks in the crown. Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie ratings were assigned with a modified USPHS criteria. The patients were also surveyed with respect to oral hygiene and satisfaction of treatment. Estimations of 4-year success rates and corresponding confidence intervals were calculated by fitting a constant hazard function model with the SAS procedure GENMOD. RESULTS: Marginal integrity for 88% of artificial crowns was rated Alpha or Bravo. Shade match for 99% was Bravo or better. Only 1% of the crowns were carious, and 1 crown exhibited occlusal wear. One premolar crown had a small fracture of veneering porcelain. One molar crown was remade after core fracture. All patients (100%) expressed satisfaction with their crowns. The estimated 4-year success rates (Alpha or Bravo), with 95% confidence intervals in parentheses were calculated as: 83.5% (65.7%-94.6%) for marginal integrity, 95.8% (82.9%-99.8%) for shade match, and 95.5% (81.6%-99.7%) for secondary caries, 100% (88%-100%) for wear, and 100% (88%-100%) for cracks.
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Óxido de Aluminio/química , Cerámica/química , Coronas , Porcelana Dental/química , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Color , Intervalos de Confianza , Pilares Dentales , Caries Dental/etiología , Implantes Dentales de Diente Único , Diseño de Prótesis Dental , Fracaso de la Restauración Dental , Alisadura de la Restauración Dental , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Higiene Bucal , Satisfacción del Paciente , Técnica de Perno Muñón , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Propiedades de Superficie , Atrición Dental/etiología , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
Knowledge concerning risk factors for primary dentition caries in young children is incomplete. Models are presented for caries development using longitudinally gathered fluoride exposure and dietary intake data in the Iowa Fluoride Study. Primary tooth caries examinations were conducted at age 5. Dietary (beverage) and fluoride exposure data were gathered longitudinally from age 6 weeks through 4 years (n = 291); 23% had decayed or filled surfaces. Logistic regression revealed that beverage components and toothbrushing made unique contributions to caries experience. Water consumption (36-48 months), milk consumption (24-36 months), and fluoridated toothpaste brushings (36-48 months) were negatively associated with caries; sugared beverages and milk (6 weeks to 12 months) were positively associated. Although fluoride exposure is important, sugared beverages contribute substantially to caries risk, while water and milk consumption and frequent toothbrushing early can have protective effects.
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Caries Dental/etiología , Dieta Cariógena , Sacarosa en la Dieta/efectos adversos , Diente Primario , Animales , Área Bajo la Curva , Bebidas/efectos adversos , Cariostáticos/administración & dosificación , Bovinos , Niño , Preescolar , Caries Dental/prevención & control , Ingestión de Líquidos , Femenino , Fluoruros/administración & dosificación , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Estudios Longitudinales , Masculino , Leche , Oportunidad Relativa , Factores Socioeconómicos , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Cepillado DentalRESUMEN
When a permanent maxillary canine erupts apical to the permanent lateral incisor and the deciduous canine, resorption typically takes place only on the deciduous canine root. An understanding of this differential resorption could provide insight into the reasons for excessive iatrogenic root resorption during orthodontic tooth movement. The purpose of the present study was to examine the response of roots of permanent lateral incisors and deciduous canines to simulated resorption, and to acid and enzyme attack, reflecting the physiologic environment of an erupting permanent canine. Groups of maxillary permanent lateral incisor and deciduous canine roots were exposed to 5 combinations of Ten Cate demineralizing solution, Ten Cate demineralizing solution with EDTA, and a Type I collagenase solution. Sections of the roots were examined under a polarized light microscope. Analysis of variation of the resulting root lesions demonstrated that the lesion depths for deciduous canines were greater than those for permanent lateral incisors when averaged across 4 of the conditions (F(1,24) = 7.49, P =.0115). On average, deciduous canine roots demonstrated lesions 10% deeper than did permanent lateral incisor roots. We concluded that when deciduous canine and permanent lateral incisor roots are subjected to acid and enzyme attack, reflecting the physiologic environment of an erupting permanent canine, significantly deeper demineralized lesions are seen in the deciduous roots compared with the permanent roots. This finding may partially explain the differential root resorption during permanent tooth eruption.
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Resorción Radicular/fisiopatología , Diente Primario/fisiopatología , Ácidos/farmacología , Análisis de Varianza , Colagenasas/farmacología , Diente Canino/fisiopatología , Dentición Permanente , Humanos , Incisivo/fisiopatología , Distribución Aleatoria , Erupción Dental/fisiología , Raíz del Diente/efectos de los fármacos , Raíz del Diente/fisiopatologíaRESUMEN
The purpose of this investigation was to assess the method proposed by Skieller, Björk, and Linde-Hansen in 1984 to predict mandibular growth rotation. Our sample consisted of 40 randomly selected, untreated, adolescent subjects representative of the patient population generally encountered in orthodontic practice. The four independent variables identified in the Skieller study as having the highest predictive value (mandibular inclination, intermolar angle, shape of the lower border of the mandible, and inclination of the symphysis) were identified on initial lateral cephalograms. The proposed regression equations were applied and predicted mandibular rotations obtained. Final lateral cephalograms made 6 years after the initial profile radiographs were superimposed and actual mandibular rotation recorded. The observed and predicted rotations were compared and regression analyses performed to determine the amount of variability in observed values accounted for by the four variables individually and in combination. Only 5.6% of the variability in mandibular growth rotation could be accounted for using the four variables individually. Only 9% of the variability could be accounted for with a combination of the variables. In addition, we performed a Monte Carlo analysis, which mirrored the Skieller analysis but used random numbers instead of actual cephalometric data, to determine if the Skieller results may simply have capitalized on chance. Using the same forward stepwise selection procedure with a rejection level of P >.1, we found after 5000 simulations that a mean of 84% and a median of 94% of mandibular growth rotation variability could be accounted for using meaningless data in the Skieller analysis. This result was comparable to the Skieller value of 86%. In conclusion, information derived from pretreatment lateral cephalograms using the Skieller, Björk, and Linde-Hansen method does not permit clinically useful predictions to be made in a general population relative to the direction of future mandibular growth rotation.