Understanding the long-term policy influence strategies of the tobacco industry: two contemporary case studies.

OBJECTIVE: This paper explores transnational tobacco companies' (TTCs) long-term policy influence strategies using two case studies, harm reduction and illicit tobacco, to identify lessons for the tobacco control movement and wider efforts to address the commercial determinants of health. METHODS: Evidence from a broad combination of sources including leaked documents and findings from over two decades of TTC monitoring were reviewed for each case study and categorised using the Policy Dystopia Model, focusing on the primary discursive strategy and key instrumental (action-based) strategies used. RESULTS: In both case studies, TTCs seek to advance their interests by engaging primarily in reputation management, coalition management and information management strategies over the long-term to propagate their over-riding discursive strategy-'we've changed, we are part of the solution'-despite clear evidence from both case studies that this is not the case. These strategies are globally coordinated and attempt primarily to reshape norms towards TTC involvement in tobacco control policy and delivery. Findings also suggest that industry denormalisation and the advent of Article 5.3 have led to the TTCs growing use of increasingly complex and opaque 'webs of influence'. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco control community must develop its own proactive long-term strategies which should include industry denormalisation, new ways to fund research that reduce industry control, and improved transparency measures for research and policy. These findings, including TTC adaptations to Article 5.3, also indicate the need for more structural solutions, addressing corporate power and the underlying political and economic system. These lessons can be applied to other unhealthy commodity industries.

HIV infection and anaemia do not affect HbA1c for the detection of diabetes in black South Africans: Evidence from the Durban Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE: South Africa has a high burden of HIV infection and anaemia. These conditions may cause HbA1c to over- or underestimate glycaemia; however, this has not been comprehensively investigated in African populations. We assessed the association of anaemia, HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy (ART) with HbA1c , and implications for the detection and diagnosis of diabetes, in a black South African population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this population-based cross-sectional study in eThekwini municipality (Durban), South Africa, we assessed HbA1c and conducted oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), HIV diagnostic tests and full blood count measurements among 1067 participants without a history of diabetes diagnosis. Linear regression was used to examine differences in HbA1c by anaemia (comparator: no anaemia), or HIV and ART (comparator: no HIV) status. HbA1c -based diabetes prevalence was compared with OGTT-based prevalence among individuals with anaemia and with untreated and ART-treated HIV. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, normocytic and microcytic anaemia were associated with higher HbA1c compared with no anaemia, whereas macrocytic anaemia and ART-treated HIV were associated with lower HbA1c compared with no anaemia and no HIV, respectively. However, magnitudes of association were small (range: ß  = -3.4 mmol/mol or -0.31%, p < 0.001 [macrocytic anaemia] to ß = 2.1 mmol/mol or 0.19%, p < 0.001 [microcytic anaemia]). There was no significant difference in diabetes prevalence based on HbA1c or OGTT among individuals with anaemia (2.9% vs. 3.3%, p = 0.69), untreated HIV (1.6% vs. 1.6% p = 1.00) or ART-treated HIV (2.9% vs. 1.2%, p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that anaemia and HIV status appear unlikely to materially affect the utility of HbA1c for diabetes detection and diagnosis in this population. Further studies are needed to examine these associations in sub-Saharan African populations.

A systematic review of trends in all-cause mortality among people with diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We examined all-cause mortality trends in people with diabetes and compared them with trends among people without diabetes. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched for observational studies published from 1980 to 2019 reporting all-cause mortality rates across ≥2 time periods in people with diabetes. Mortality trends were examined by ethnicity, age and sex within comparable calendar periods. RESULTS: Of 30,295 abstracts screened, 35 studies were included, providing data on 69 separate ethnic-specific or sex-specific populations with diabetes since 1970. Overall, 43% (3/7), 53% (10/19) and 74% (32/43) of the populations studied had decreasing trends in all-cause mortality rates in people with diabetes in 1970-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, respectively. In 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 75% (9/12) and 78% (28/36) of predominantly Europid populations, and in 14% (1/7) and 57% (4/7) of non-Europid populations, respectively. In 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 33% (4/12), 65% (11/17), 88% (7/8) and 76% (16/21) of populations aged <40, 40-54, 55-69 and ≥70 years, respectively. Among the 33 populations with separate mortality data for those with and without diabetes, 60% (6/10) of the populations with diabetes in 1990-1999 and 58% (11/19) in 2000-2016 had an annual reduction in mortality rates that was similar to or greater than in those without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: All-cause mortality has declined in the majority of predominantly Europid populations with diabetes since 2000, and the magnitude of annual mortality reduction matched or exceeded that observed in people without diabetes in nearly 60% of populations. Patterns of diabetes mortality remain uncertain in younger age groups and non-Europid populations. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration ID CRD42019095974. Graphical abstract.

The impact of diabetes on productivity in China.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes increases the risk of premature death and reduces work productivity. We estimated the impact of diabetes in China in terms of mortality, years of life lost, and productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) lost in the Chinese population. METHODS: Life table modelling was used with simulated follow-up of those with diabetes in the Chinese population of working age (20-49 years in women and 20-59 years in men) until retirement age (50 years for women and 60 years for men). Data regarding the prevalence of diabetes, as well as excess mortality, labour force dropout and productivity loss attributable to diabetes, were taken from published sources. Models were constructed for the cohort with diabetes and repeated for the same cohort assuming that they had no diabetes. The differences in number of deaths, years of life lived and PALYs lived between the two models reflected the impact of diabetes. The WHO standard 3% annual discount rate was applied to years of life and PALYs lived. RESULTS: In 2017, an estimated 56.4 million people of working age in China (7.1%) had diabetes. With simulated follow-up until retirement, those with diabetes were predicted to experience an estimated 4.1 million more deaths, the loss of an additional 22.7 million years of life (3.7%) and the loss of an additional 75.8 million PALYs (15.1%). This was equivalent to an average of 1.3 PALYs lost per person with diabetes. Based on gross domestic product (GDP) per full-time worker in 2017, the loss in PALYs equated to a total of Chinese ¥17.4 trillion (US$2.6 trillion) in lost GDP owing to reduced productivity, with an average of ¥307,925 (US$45,959) lost per person with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our study demonstrates the significant cumulative impact of diabetes on productivity across the working lifetime in the Chinese population, highlighting the potential economic benefits of diabetes prevention in the longer term.

Systematic review of mucosal immunity induced by oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines against virus shedding following oral poliovirus challenge.

Inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) may be used in mass vaccination campaigns during the final stages of polio eradication. It is also likely to be adopted by many countries following the coordinated global cessation of vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) after eradication. The success of IPV in the control of poliomyelitis outbreaks will depend on the degree of nasopharyngeal and intestinal mucosal immunity induced against poliovirus infection. We performed a systematic review of studies published through May 2011 that recorded the prevalence of poliovirus shedding in stool samples or nasopharyngeal secretions collected 5-30 days after a "challenge" dose of OPV. Studies were combined in a meta-analysis of the odds of shedding among children vaccinated according to IPV, OPV, and combination schedules. We identified 31 studies of shedding in stool and four in nasopharyngeal samples that met the inclusion criteria. Individuals vaccinated with OPV were protected against infection and shedding of poliovirus in stool samples collected after challenge compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary odds ratio [OR] for shedding 0.13 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.08-0.24)). In contrast, IPV provided no protection against shedding compared with unvaccinated individuals (summary OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.59-1.11]) or when given in addition to OPV, compared with individuals given OPV alone (summary OR 1.14 [95% CI 0.82-1.58]). There were insufficient studies of nasopharyngeal shedding to draw a conclusion. IPV does not induce sufficient intestinal mucosal immunity to reduce the prevalence of fecal poliovirus shedding after challenge, although there was some evidence that it can reduce the quantity of virus shed. The impact of IPV on poliovirus transmission in countries where fecal-oral spread is common is unknown but is likely to be limited compared with OPV.

Tobacco industry messaging around harm: Narrative framing in PMI and BAT press releases and annual reports 2011 to 2021.

Influencing public perception is a key way in which all transnational corporations (TNCs) maintain market dominance and political power. Transnational tobacco companies (TTCs) have a long history of leveraging narratives to serve commercial ambitions. The global reach of these companies' narratives has been highlighted as a challenge in combatting public health problems caused by tobacco. The corporate power of TTCs is carefully curated, and their narratives play an important role in the setting of governance dynamics at local, national and transnational levels. This qualitative work explores and compares the language used by British American Tobacco (BAT) and Philip Morris International (PMI) around harm, harm reduction and terms used to refer to newer nicotine and tobacco products, including electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products. We systematically examine framings used by these two TTCs through company reports published between 2011 and 2021. Qualitative coding was carried out by four coders, according to a protocol developed specifically for this work. We firstly identified the presence of pre-selected keywords and then assigned chunks of text containing those key words to one or more associated frames drawn from Boydstun's policy frames codebook (2013). Qualitative coding identified the most common frames from Boydstun's codebook and thematic analysis highlighted three overarching themes. The most common frames assigned were "capacity and resources", "health and safety" and "economic" frames. The overarching themes were individualization, normalization, and regulation. These themes capture how both BAT and PMI use particular framings to downplay the role of TTCs in the perpetuation of population- and individual-level harms related to tobacco use. They seek to normalize their role in public discussions of health policy, to cast themselves as instrumental in the redress of tobacco-related inequalities and shift responsibility for the continuation of tobacco-product use onto individual consumers. These tactics are problematic for the effective and impartial development and implementation of local, national and international tobacco control agendas.

Trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes: a multicountry analysis of aggregate data from 22 million diagnoses in high-income and middle-income settings.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence is increasing in most places in the world, but prevalence is affected by both risk of developing diabetes and survival of those with diabetes. Diabetes incidence is a better metric to understand the trends in population risk of diabetes. Using a multicountry analysis, we aimed to ascertain whether the incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has changed over time. METHODS: In this multicountry data analysis, we assembled aggregated data describing trends in diagnosed total or type 2 diabetes incidence from 24 population-based data sources in 21 countries or jurisdictions. Data were from administrative sources, health insurance records, registries, and a health survey. We modelled incidence rates with Poisson regression, using age and calendar time (1995-2018) as variables, describing the effects with restricted cubic splines with six knots for age and calendar time. FINDINGS: Our data included about 22 million diabetes diagnoses from 5 billion person-years of follow-up. Data were from 19 high-income and two middle-income countries or jurisdictions. 23 data sources had data from 2010 onwards, among which 19 had a downward or stable trend, with an annual estimated change in incidence ranging from -1·1% to -10·8%. Among the four data sources with an increasing trend from 2010 onwards, the annual estimated change ranged from 0·9% to 5·6%. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses excluding data sources in which the data quality was lower and were consistent in analyses stratified by different diabetes definitions. INTERPRETATION: The incidence of diagnosed diabetes is stabilising or declining in many high-income countries. The reasons for the declines in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes warrant further investigation with appropriate data sources. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Diabetes Australia Research Program, and Victoria State Government Operational Infrastructure Support Program.

The impact of diabetes on the productivity and economy of Bangladesh.

AIMS: To estimate the impact of type 2 diabetes in terms of mortality, years of life lost (YLL) and productivity-adjusted life years (PALY) lost in Bangladesh. METHODS: A life table model was constructed to estimate the productivity of the Bangladeshi population of current working age (20-59 years) with diabetes. Follow-up to 60 years (retirement age) was simulated. The life table analysis was then repeated assuming that the cohort did not have diabetes, with subsequent improvement in productivity. Differences in the results of the two analyses reflected the impact of diabetes on health and productivity. Demographic and the prevalence of diabetes data were sourced from the International Diabetes Foundation estimates for 2017 and mortality data were based on the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. Relative risk and productivity indices were based on an Indian and Bangladeshi study, respectively. The cost of each PALY was assumed to be equivalent to gross domestic product (GDP) per equivalent full-time worker (US$8763). Future costs and years of life, and PALYs lived were discounted at an annual rate of 3%. RESULTS: Assuming a follow-up of this population (aged 20-59 years) until age 60 years or death, an estimated 813 807 excess deaths, loss of 4.0 million life years (5.5%) and 9.2 million PALYs (20.4%) were attributable to having diabetes. This was equivalent to 0.7 YLL, and 1.6 PALYs lost per person. The loss in PALYs equated to a total of US$97.4 billion lost (US$16 987 per person) in GDP. The results of the scenario analysis showed that the estimation was robust. CONCLUSION: In Bangladesh, the impact of diabetes on productivity loss and the broader economy looms large, and poses a substantial risk to the country's future prosperity. This highlights the critical importance of health strategies aimed at the control of diabetes.

Cost-effectiveness of first-line versus delayed use of combination dapagliflozin and metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The present study sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of first-line (immediate) versus delayed use of combination dapagliflozin and metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes, from the perspective of the Australian healthcare system. We developed a Markov model to simulate the progress of subjects with type 2 diabetes. Decision analysis was applied to assess the cost-effectiveness of first-line combination dapagliflozin and metformin versus first-line metformin monotherapy followed by gradual addition of dapagliflozin over time. Transition probabilities, costs (in Australian dollars) and utility data were derived from published sources. All costs, years of life lived and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lived were discounted at an annual rate of 5%. Over a 20-year model period, first-line use of combination dapagliflozin and metformin was predicted to reduce the onset of hospitalisation of heart failure, cardiovascular deaths and all cause deaths by 5.5%, 57.6% and 29.6%, respectively. An additional 2.5 years of life (discounted) and 1.9 QALYs (discounted) would be gained per patient, at a cost of AUD $23,367 (discounted) per person. These figures equated to AUD $9,535 per years of life saved (YoLS) and AUD $12,477 per QALYs saved. Sensitivity analyses indicated the results to be robust. Compared to first-line metformin monotherapy followed by gradual addition of dapagliflozin, first-line use of combination dapagliflozin and metformin is likely to be a cost-effective approach to the management of Australians with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Productivity Burden of Hypertension in Australia.

Hypertension increases the risk of premature death and reduces work productivity. We estimated the burden of hypertension in Australia in terms of productivity lost over the working lifetime of the Australian population. Life table models were used to estimate excess mortality, years of life lost, and productivity-adjusted life years lost among Australians with hypertension and of working age (20 to 69 years), with simulated follow-up until age 70 years. In 2017, an estimated 4.1 million working-age Australians (25.9%) had hypertension, of whom an estimated 21.6% were treated and controlled, 17.0% were treated but uncontrolled, and 61.4% were untreated. With simulated follow-up, over 149 846 excess deaths leading to a loss of over 548 794 years of life were predicted to occur in the hypertension cohort. Hypertension also caused the loss of 609 801 productivity-adjusted life years (2.4%), equating to AUD$137.2 billion in lost gross domestic product over the working lifetime. A 25% reduction in hypertension prevalence, in line with the World Health Organisation Global Action Plan targets, would lead to 155 450 productivity-adjusted life years saved over the working lifetime, whereas the adequate treatment and control of all of those with hypertension would lead to 342 538 productivity-adjusted life years saved. This equates to AUD$34.3 billion and $76.4 billion in gross domestic product retained over the working lifetime of the cohort, respectively. Our findings highlight the considerable economic burden of hypertension in Australia and that effective strategies aimed at the prevention and adequate control of hypertension are likely to pay significant economic dividends for individuals, employers, and governments in the longer term.

Cost-effectiveness of low-dose rivaroxaban and aspirin versus aspirin alone in people with peripheral or carotid artery disease: An Australian healthcare perspective.

AIMS: Peripheral artery disease affects 1.2% of the population globally and is associated with an increased risk of atherothrombotic cardiovascular events, major adverse limb events and mortality. The Cardiovascular Outcomes for People Using Anti-coagulation Strategies (COMPASS) trial demonstrated positive results of rivaroxaban plus aspirin therapy compared to aspirin therapy alone in those with peripheral artery disease or carotid artery disease. We sought to estimate the cost-effectiveness from the Australian healthcare system perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Markov model was developed to simulate the experiences of a hypothetical population of 1000 individuals with peripheral artery disease or carotid artery disease, profiled on the COMPASS trial, treated with rivaroxaban plus aspirin therapy versus aspirin therapy alone. With each annual cycle, individuals were at risk of having non-fatal cardiovascular disease events, major adverse limb events, or dying. Individuals were also at risk of non-fatal major bleeding. The model had a lifetime time horizon. Costs and utilities were sourced from the literature and discounted at 5.0% annually. Rivaroxaban plus aspirin therapy prevented 143 non-fatal cardiovascular disease events, 118 major adverse limb events and 10 deaths compared to aspirin therapy alone. Conversely, 156 additional major non-fatal bleeds were accrued. With an additional 256 quality-adjusted life years gained, at an additional cost of AUD$6,858,103, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was AUD$26,769 (discounted) per quality-adjusted life year gained, which is below Australia's arbitrary willingness to pay threshold of AUD$50,000. CONCLUSION: In those with peripheral artery disease or carotid artery disease, rivaroxaban plus aspirin therapy is effective and cost-effective in the prevention of recurrent cardiovascular disease compared to aspirin therapy alone.

Burden of Diabetes and First Evidence for the Utility of HbA1c for Diagnosis and Detection of Diabetes in Urban Black South Africans: The Durban Diabetes Study.

OBJECTIVE: Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) is recommended as an additional tool to glucose-based measures (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] and 2-hour plasma glucose [2PG] during oral glucose tolerance test [OGTT]) for the diagnosis of diabetes; however, its use in sub-Saharan African populations is not established. We assessed prevalence estimates and the diagnosis and detection of diabetes based on OGTT, FPG, and HbA1c in an urban black South African population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey using multistage cluster sampling of adults aged ≥18 years in Durban (eThekwini municipality), KwaZulu-Natal. All participants had a 75-g OGTT and HbA1c measurements. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to assess the overall diagnostic accuracy of HbA1c, using OGTT as the reference, and to determine optimal HbA1c cut-offs. RESULTS: Among 1190 participants (851 women, 92.6% response rate), the age-standardised prevalence of diabetes was 12.9% based on OGTT, 11.9% based on FPG, and 13.1% based on HbA1c. In participants without a previous history of diabetes (n = 1077), using OGTT as the reference, an HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%) detected diabetes with 70.3% sensitivity (95%CI 52.7-87.8) and 98.7% specificity (95%CI 97.9-99.4) (AUC 0.94 [95%CI 0.89-1.00]). Additional analyses suggested the optimal HbA1c cut-off for detection of diabetes in this population was 42 mmol/mol (6.0%) (sensitivity 89.2% [95%CI 78.6-99.8], specificity 92.0% [95%CI: 90.3-93.7]). CONCLUSIONS: In an urban black South African population, we found a high prevalence of diabetes and provide the first evidence for the utility of HbA1c for the diagnosis and detection of diabetes in black Africans in sub-Saharan Africa.