Leveraging natural history biorepositories as a global, decentralized, pathogen surveillance network.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic reveals a major gap in global biosecurity infrastructure: a lack of publicly available biological samples representative across space, time, and taxonomic diversity. The shortfall, in this case for vertebrates, prevents accurate and rapid identification and monitoring of emerging pathogens and their reservoir host(s) and precludes extended investigation of ecological, evolutionary, and environmental associations that lead to human infection or spillover. Natural history museum biorepositories form the backbone of a critically needed, decentralized, global network for zoonotic pathogen surveillance, yet this infrastructure remains marginally developed, underutilized, underfunded, and disconnected from public health initiatives. Proactive detection and mitigation for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) requires expanded biodiversity infrastructure and training (particularly in biodiverse and lower income countries) and new communication pipelines that connect biorepositories and biomedical communities. To this end, we highlight a novel adaptation of Project ECHO's virtual community of practice model: Museums and Emerging Pathogens in the Americas (MEPA). MEPA is a virtual network aimed at fostering communication, coordination, and collaborative problem-solving among pathogen researchers, public health officials, and biorepositories in the Americas. MEPA now acts as a model of effective international, interdisciplinary collaboration that can and should be replicated in other biodiversity hotspots. We encourage deposition of wildlife specimens and associated data with public biorepositories, regardless of original collection purpose, and urge biorepositories to embrace new specimen sources, types, and uses to maximize strategic growth and utility for EID research. Taxonomically, geographically, and temporally deep biorepository archives serve as the foundation of a proactive and increasingly predictive approach to zoonotic spillover, risk assessment, and threat mitigation.

Late Cenozoic history and the role of Beringia in assembling a Holarctic cestode species complex.

The dynamic climate history that drove sea level fluctuation during past glacial periods mediated the movement of organisms between Asia and North America via the Bering Land Bridge. Investigations of the biogeographic histories of small mammals and their parasites demonstrate facets of a complex history of episodic geographic colonization and refugial isolation that structured diversity across the Holarctic. We use a large multi-locus nuclear DNA sequence dataset to robustly resolve relationships within the cestode genus Arostrilepis (Cyclophyllidea: Hymenolepididae), a widespread parasite of predominantly arvicoline rodents (voles, lemmings). Using this phylogeny, we confirm that several Asian Arostrilepis lineages colonized North America during up to four distinct glacial periods in association with different rodent hosts, consistent with taxon-pulse dynamics. A previously inferred westward dispersal across the land bridge is rejected. We also refine interpretations of past host colonization, providing evidence for several distinct episodes of expanding host range, which probably contributed to diversification by Arostrilepis. Finally, Arostrilepis is shown to be paraphyletic with respect to Hymenandrya thomomyis, a parasite of pocket gophers, confirming that ancient Arostrilepis species colonized new host lineages upon arriving in North America.

When parasites persist: tapeworms survive host extinction and reveal waves of dispersal across Beringia.

Investigations of intercontinental dispersal between Asia and North America reveal complex patterns of geographic expansion, retraction and isolation, yet historical reconstructions are largely limited by the depth of the record that is retained in patterns of extant diversity. Parasites offer a tool for recovering deep historical insights about the biosphere, improving the resolution of past community-level interactions. We explored biogeographic hypotheses regarding the history of dispersal across Beringia, the region intermittently linking Asia and North America, through large-scale multi-locus phylogenetic analyses of the genus Schizorchis, an assemblage of host-specific cestodes in pikas (Lagomorpha: Ochotonidae). Our genetic data support palaeontological evidence for two separate geographic expansions into North America by Ochotona in the late Tertiary, a history that genomic evidence from extant pikas does not record. Pikas descending from the first colonization of Miocene age persisted into the Pliocene, subsequently coming into contact with a second wave of Nearctic colonists from Eurasia before going extinct. Spatial and temporal overlap of historically independent pika populations provided a window for host colonization, allowing persistence of an early parasite lineage in the contemporary fauna following the extinction of its ancestral hosts. Empirical evidence for ancient 'ghost assemblages' of hosts and parasites demonstrates how complex mosaic faunas are assembled in the biosphere through episodes of faunal mixing encompassing parasite lineages across deep and shallow time.

Discovery of Arostrilepis tapeworms (Cyclophyllidea: Hymenolepididae) and new insights for parasite species diversity from Eastern North America.

Species of the genus Arostrilepis were discovered and definitively identified for the first time in rodents from geographically disparate localities along the Appalachian Mountain range of eastern North America (West Virginia, Virginia, and Maine). These are the first confirmed records for species of Arostrilepis occurring east of the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River in North America. Arostrilepis gardneri n. sp. is described on the basis of specimens obtained from two phylogenetically divergent rodent hosts: Southern Red-Backed Vole Myodes gapperi (Cricetidae: Arvicolinae) (from West Virginia) and the Woodland Jumping Mouse Napaeozapus insignis (Dipodidae: Zapodinae) (West Virginia, Virginia, and Maine). Additionally, in a mixed infection, specimens of Arostrilepis insperata n. sp. were also found in a Southern Red-Backed Vole from West Virginia. These previously unknown species are primarily distinguished from congeners based on shape, dimensions, and spination (pattern, shape, and size of spines) of the cirrus. Specimens of A. gardneri n. sp. are further characterized by the relative position and length of the cirrus-sac, arrangement of the testes, and relative size of the external seminal vesicle and seminal receptacle. Specimens of A. insperata n. sp. are structurally most similar to A. macrocirrosa from the western Nearctic and Palearctic but with consistently greater dimensions for the cirrus-sac, testes, and seminal receptacle. Phylogenetic analysis of Arostrilepis spp. using partial sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and the nuclear second ribosomal internal transcribed spacer strongly supported the status of A. gardneri n. sp. and A. insperata n. sp. within an unresolved clade of congeners in Red-Backed Voles (Myodini and species of Myodes). Our observations extend the known geographic distribution for species of Arostrilepis to the Appalachian Mountains in either a disjunct or possibly continuous but patchy range across North America. Prior observations, summarizing field and museum collections, had suggested that geographic ranges for a diverse assemblage of Arostrilepis in North America were largely restricted to the north-western region of the continent, with historical connections to Beringia and Eurasia. Recognition of a more extensive distribution is consistent with a history of episodic biotic expansion and isolation under a dynamic of taxon pulses for arvicoline rodents and an associated parasite fauna in the Nearctic during the Quaternary. Occurrence in a dipodid rodent represents an event of host colonization from an arvicoline source.

Historical biogeography among species of Varestrongylus lungworms (Nematoda: Protostrongylidae) in ungulates: episodic expansion and host colonization linking Eurasia and North America.

Varestrongylus lungworms (Nematoda: Protostrongylidae) include 10 nominal species that parasitize wild and domesticated artiodactyles. Eight species are endemic to the western Palearctic and Eurasia, whereas two are limited in distribution to the Nearctic. Complex host associations, primarily among Cervidae and Bovidae (Caprinae), and biogeography were explored based on direct comparisons of parasite and host phylogenies to reveal the historical development of this fauna. Diversification among Varestrongylus species has an intricate history extending over the Pliocene and Quaternary involving episodic processes for geographic and host colonization: (1) Varestrongylus has origins in Eurasia with independent expansion events into bordering ecozones; (2) cervids are ancestral hosts; (3) the caprine-associated V. pneumonicus is basal and a result of an independent host colonization event; (4) secondary diversification, linked to sequential and independent host colonization events, occurred within cervids (V. sagittatus + V. tuvae; V. alpenae; and V. capreoli, V. alces + V. eleguneniensis); (5) at least two additional host colonization events into caprines occurred, followed or not by diversification (V. qinghaiensis + V. longispiculatus; V. capricola, respectively); (6) two independent events of geographic expansion into North America from Eurasia with cervids in the late Pliocene and early Pleistocene are postulated (V. alpenae, V. eleguneniensis). Comparisons based on phylogenetic hypotheses derived from comparative morphology and molecular inference for these nematodes are consistent with the postulated history for coevolutionary and biogeographic history. Episodes of geographic and host colonization, often in relation to rapid shifts in climate and habitat perturbation, have dominated the history of diversification of Varestrongylus.

Varestrongylus (Nematoda: Protostrongylidae), lungworms of ungulates: a phylogenetic framework based on comparative morphology.

Varestrongylus Bhalerao, 1932 comprises ten valid lungworm species infecting wild and domestic ungulates from Eurasia and North America. Here, we present a phylogenetic hypothesis for the genus based on morphological characters in a broader context for the family Protostrongylidae and discuss species relationships and aspects of character evolution. Phylogenetic analysis of 25 structural attributes, including binary and multistate characters, among the 10 species of Varestrongylus resulted in one fully resolved most parsimonious tree (61 steps; consistency index = 0.672, retention index = 0.722, and consistency index excluding uninformative characters = 0.667). Varestrongylus forms a monophyletic clade and is the sister of Pneumostrongylus, supporting recognition of the subfamily Varestrongylinae. Monophyly for Varestrongylus is diagnosed by six unequivocal synapomorphies, all associated with structural characters of the copulatory system of males. Varestrongylus pneumonicus is basal, and sister to all other species within the genus, which form two subclades. The subclade I contains V. sagittatus + V. tuvae and V. qinghaiensis + V. longispiculatus. Subclade II contains V. alpenae, V. capricola, V. capreoli, and V. eleguneniensis + V. alces. Both subclades are diagnosed by two unambiguous synapomorphies. Highlighted is the continuing importance of phylogenetic assessments based on comparative morphology as a foundation to explore the structure of the biosphere across space and time.

A comparison of two methods for quantifying parasitic nematode fecundity.

Accurate measures of nematode fecundity can provide important information for investigating parasite life history evolution, transmission potential, and effects on host health. Understanding differences among fecundity assessment protocols and standardizing methods, where possible, will enable comparisons across different studies and host and parasite species and systems. Using the trichostrongyle nematode Cooperia fuelleborni isolated from wild African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), we compared egg recovery and enumeration between two methods for measuring the fecundity of female worms. The first method, in utero egg count, involves visual enumeration of the eggs via microscopic inspection of the uterine system. The second method, ex utero egg count, involves dissolving the same specimens from above in a sodium chloride solution to release the eggs from the female's uterus, then enumeration under an inverted microscope. On average, the ex utero method resulted in 34% more eggs than the in utero method. However, results indicate that the two methods used to quantify parasitic nematode fecundity are highly correlated. Thus, while both methods are viable options for estimating relative nematode fecundity, we recommend caution in undertaking comparative studies that utilize egg count data collected using different methods.

Definitive Hosts of Versteria Tapeworms (Cestoda: Taeniidae) Causing Fatal Infection in North America.

We previously reported fatal infection of a captive Bornean orangutan with metacestodes of a novel taeniid tapeworm, Versteria sp. New data implicate mustelids as definitive hosts of these tapeworms in North America. At least 2 parasite genetic lineages circulate in North America, representing separate introductions from Eurasia.

Experimental insight into the process of parasite community assembly.

Community assembly is a fundamental process that has long been a central focus in ecology. Extending community assembly theory to communities of co-infecting parasites, we used a gastrointestinal nematode removal experiment in free-ranging African buffalo to examine the community assembly patterns and processes. We first asked whether reassembled communities differ from undisturbed communities by comparing anthelmintic-treated and control hosts. Next, we examined the temporal dynamics of assembly using a cross-section of communities that reassembled for different periods of time since last experimental removal. Next, we tested for evidence of assembly processes that might drive such reassembly patterns: environmental filtering based on host traits (i.e. habitat patches), interspecific interactions, priority effects and chance dispersal from the environmental pool of infective stages (i.e. the regional species pool). On average, reassembled parasite communities had lower abundance, but were more diverse and even, and these patterns varied tightly with reassembly time. Over time, the communities within treated hosts progressively resembled controls as diversity and evenness decreased, while total abundance increased. Notably, experimental removal allowed us to attribute observed differences in abundance, diversity and evenness to the process of community assembly. During early reassembly, parasite accumulation was biased towards a subordinate species and, by excluding stochastic assembly processes (i.e. chance dispersal and priority effects), we were able to determine that early assembly is deterministic. Later in the reassembly process, we established that host traits, as well as stochastic dispersal from the environmental pool of infective stages, can affect the community composition. Overall, our results suggest that there is a high degree of resiliency and environmental dependence to the worm communities of buffalo. More generally, our data show that both deterministic and stochastic processes may play a role in the assembly of parasite communities of wild hosts, but their relative importance may vary temporally. Consequently, the best strategy for managing reassembling parasite communities may also need to shift over time.

Broadening diversity in the Arostrilepis horrida complex: Arostrilepis kontrimavichusi n. sp. (Cyclophyllidea: Hymenolepididae) in the western red-backed vole Myodes californicus (Merriam) (Cricetidae: Arvicolinae) from temperate latitudes of the Pacific Northwest, North America.

Specimens originally identified provisionally as Hymenolepis horrida (Linstow, 1901) [later Arostrilepis horrida (Linstow, 1901)] in Myodes californicus (Merriam) from near the Pacific coastal zone of southern Oregon are revised. Specimens in western red-backed voles represent an undescribed species of Arostrilepis Mas Coma & Tenora, 1997, contributing to recognition and resolution of a broadening complex encompassing cryptic diversity for these hymenolepidid tapeworms distributed across the Holarctic region. Consistent with recent studies defining diversity in the genus, the form, dimensions, and spination (pattern, shape and size) of the cirrus are diagnostic. Among 12 nominal congeners, specimens of A. kontrimavichusi n. sp. are further distinguished by the relative position and length of the cirrus-sac, arrangement of the testes and relative size of the external seminal vesicle and seminal receptacle. Specimens from Oregon voles represent the fifth endemic hymenolepidid in this genus from the Nearctic. Host range for the North American assemblage of species includes Cricetidae (Arvicolinae and Neotominae), Heteromyidae, Geomyidae, and rarely Sciuridae.

Hymenolepis folkertsi n. sp. (Eucestoda: Hymenolepididae) in the oldfield mouse Peromyscus polionotus (Wagner) (Rodentia: Cricetidae: Neotominae) from the southeastern Nearctic with comments on tapeworm faunal diversity among deer mice.

A previously unrecognized species of hymenolepidid cestode attributable to Hymenolepis is described based on specimens in Peromyscus polionotus, oldfield mouse, from Georgia near the southeastern coast of continental North America. Specimens of Hymenolepis folkertsi n. sp. differ from those attributed to most other species in the genus by having testes arranged in a triangle and a scolex with a prominent rostrum-like protrusion. The newly recognized species is further distinguished by the relative position and length of the cirrus sac, shape of seminal receptacle, and relative size of external seminal vesicle and seminal receptacle. Hymenolepidid cestodes have sporadically been reported among the highly diverse assemblage of Peromyscus which includes 56 distinct species in the Nearctic. Although the host genus has a great temporal duration and is endemic to the Nearctic, current evidence suggests that tapeworm faunal diversity reflects relatively recent assembly through bouts of host switching among other cricetid, murid, and geomyid rodents in sympatry.

Trichinella: Becoming a parasite.

Phylogenetic evidence indicates that free-living nematodes gave rise to parasitic nematodes where parasitism evolved independently at least 15 times. The high level of genetic and biological diversity among parasites dictates an equally high level of diversity in the transition to parasitism. We previously hypothesized that horizontal gene transfer (HGT) played an important role in the evolution of parasitism among early ancestors of Trichinella, mediated by an interplay of ecological and evolutionary pathways that contributed to persistence and diversification. We propose that host selection may have been associated with the metabolism of ammonia and engender a new paradigm whereby the reprogrammed nurse cell is capable of generating cyanate thereby enabling the importance of the Trichinella cyanase in the longevity of the cell. Parasites and parasitism have revealed considerable resilience against a backdrop of climate change and environmental perturbation. Here we provide a putative link between key periods in the evolution of Trichinella and major geological and climatological events dating back 500 million years. A useful lens for exploring such ideas, the Stockholm Paradigm, integrates Ecological Fitting (a foundation for host colonization and diversification), the Oscillation Hypothesis (recurring shifts between trends in generalization and specialization relative to host range), the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution (microevolutionary co-adaptive processes), and the Taxon Pulse Hypothesis (alternating events of biotic expansion i.e., exploitation in evolutionary and ecological time). Here we examine how one or more of these interactive theories, in a phylogenetic-historical context and in conjunction with HGT, may help explain the scope and depth of diversity among Trichinella genotypes.

Invasion, establishment, and range expansion of two parasitic nematodes in the Canadian Arctic.

Climate warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate in the Arctic and is having profound effects on host-parasite interactions, including range expansion. Recently, two species of protostrongylid nematodes have emerged for the first time in muskoxen and caribou on Victoria Island in the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Umingmakstrongylus pallikuukensis, the muskox lungworm, was detected for the first time in 2008 in muskoxen at a community hunt on the southwest corner of the island and by 2012, it was found several hundred kilometers east in commercially harvested muskoxen near the town of Ikaluktutiak. In 2010, Varestrongylus sp., a recently discovered lungworm of caribou and muskoxen was found in muskoxen near Ikaluktutiak and has been found annually in this area since then. Whereas invasion of the island by U. pallikuukensis appears to have been mediated by stochastic movement of muskoxen from the mainland to the southwest corner of the island, Varestrongylus has likely been introduced at several times and locations by the seasonal migration of caribou between the island and the mainland. A newly permissive climate, now suitable for completion of the parasite life cycles in a single summer, likely facilitated the initial establishment and now drives range expansion for both parasites.

Parasite diversity at the Holarctic nexus: species of Arostrilepis (Eucestoda: Hymenolepididae) in voles and lemmings (Cricetidae: Arvicolinae) from greater Beringia.

Previously unrecognized species of hymenolepidid cestodes attributable to Arostrilepis Mas-Coma & Tenora, 1997 in arvicoline rodents from the greater Beringian region and western North America are described. Discovery and characterization of these tapeworms contributes to the recognition of a complex of cryptic species distributed across the Holarctic region. Three species are proposed: Arostrilepis gulyaevi sp. n. is named for cestodes in Myodes rufocanus from the Republic of Buryatia, southeastern Siberia and from the Khabarovskiy Kray, Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, and Magadanskaya Oblast', Russian Far East (western Beringia); A. cooki sp. n. is named for cestodes in Myodes gapperi from British Columbia, Canada and Montana, USA; and A. rauschorum sp. n. is named for cestodes in Microtus oeconomus, M. longicaudus, M. pennsylvanicus and M. xanthognathus from the Brooks Range, Seward Peninsula, north-central interior, and Arctic coastal plains of Alaska (eastern Beringia) and Montana, USA. Consistent with recent studies defining diversity in the genus, the form, size, and spination (pattern, shape and size) of the cirrus are diagnostic; species are further distinguished by the relative position and length of the cirrus sac, and arrangement of the testes. Assessment of genetic data from the cytochrome b gene of mitochondrial DNA complements differentiation of this complex based on morphological attributes and confirms known species diversity within the genus. New data for geographical distribution and host specificity of known Arostrilepis spp. indicate that 3 of 12 recognized species have Holarctic distributions extending across Beringia. These include Arostrilepis beringiensis (Kontrimavichus & Smirnova, 1991) in lemmings (species of Lemmus and Synaptomys), A. cf. janickii Makarikov & Kontrimavichus, 2011 in root voles (M. oeconomus) MAKARIKOV ET AL. 402 · Zootaxa 3608 (6) © 2013 Magnolia Press and A. macrocirrosa Makarikov, Gulyaev & Kontrimavichus, 2011 in red backed voles (species of Myodes) and less often other rodent host species.

Return to Beringia: parasites reveal cryptic biogeographic history of North American pikas.

Traditional concepts of the Bering Land Bridge as a zone of predominantly eastward expansion from Eurasia and a staging area for subsequent colonization of lower latitudes in North America led to early inferences regarding biogeographic histories of North American faunas, many of which remain untested. Here we apply a host-parasite comparative phylogeographical (HPCP) approach to evaluate one such history, by testing competing biogeographic hypotheses for five lineages of host-specific parasites shared by the collared pika (Ochotona collaris) and American pika (Ochotona princeps) of North America. We determine whether the southern host species (O. princeps) was descended from a northern ancestor or vice versa. Three parasite phylogenies revealed patterns consistent with the hypothesis of a southern origin, which is corroborated by four additional parasite lineages restricted to O. princeps. This finding reverses the traditional narrative for the origins of North American pikas and highlights the role of dispersal from temperate North America into Beringia in structuring northern diversity considerably prior to the Holocene. By evaluating multiple parasite lineages simultaneously, the study demonstrates the power of HPCP for resolving complex biogeographic histories that are not revealed by characteristics of the host alone.

Food security and emerging infectious disease: risk assessment and risk management.

Climate change, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and food security create a dangerous nexus. Habitat interfaces, assumed to be efficient buffers, are being disrupted by human activities which in turn accelerate the movement of pathogens. EIDs threaten directly and indirectly availability and access to nutritious food, affecting global security and human health. In the next 70 years, food-secure and food-insecure countries will face EIDs driving increasingly unsustainable costs of production, predicted to exceed national and global gross domestic products. Our modern challenge is to transform this business as usual and embrace an alternative vision of the biosphere formalized in the Stockholm paradigm (SP). First, a pathogen-centric focus shifts our vision of risk space, determining how pathogens circulate in realized and potential fitness space. Risk space and pathogen exchange are always heightened at habitat interfaces. Second, apply the document-assess-monitor-act (DAMA) protocol developing strategic data for EID risk, to be translated, synthesized and broadcast as actionable information. Risk management is realized through targeted interventions focused around information exchanged among a community of scientists, policy practitioners of food and public health security and local populations. Ultimately, SP and DAMA protect human rights, supporting food security, access to nutritious food, health interventions and environmental integrity.

Emerging infectious disease: An underappreciated area of strategic concern for food security.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) increasingly threaten global food security and public health. Despite technological breakthroughs, we are losing the battle with (re)emerging diseases as treatment costs and production losses rise. A horizon scan of diseases of crops, livestock, seafood and food-borne illness suggests these costs are unsustainable. The paradigm of coevolution between pathogens and particular hosts teaches that emerging diseases occur only when pathogens evolve specific capacities that allow them to move to new hosts. EIDs ought to be rare and unpredictable, so crisis response is the best we can do. Alternatively, the Stockholm Paradigm suggests that the world is full of susceptible but unexposed hosts that pathogens could infect, given the opportunity. Global climate change, globalized trade and travel, urbanization and land-use changes (often associated with biodiversity loss) increase those opportunities, making EID frequent. We can, however, anticipate their arrival in new locations and their behaviour once they have arrived. We can 'find them before they find us', mitigating their impacts. The DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol alters the current reactive stance and embodies proactive solutions to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of EID, extending human and material resources and buying time for development of new vaccinations, medications and control measures.

MORPHOMETRY OF FIRST-STAGE LARVAE OF ORTHOSTRONGYLUS MACROTIS (NEMATODA: PROTOSTRONGYLIDAE), LUNGWORM OF WILD UNGULATES FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.

Orthostrongylus macrotis (Dikmans, 1931) is a protostrongylid lungworm in wild ungulates from western North America, including mule and Columbia black-tailed deer, pronghorn, and rarely moose and elk. The lack of morphological data for certain developmental stages of O. macrotis and the unresolved taxonomic status of the genus indicate a more detailed morphological characterization of the species is necessary. We provide a detailed description of first-stage larvae (L1) of O. macrotis including morphological, morphometric, and molecular data. Species identity was confirmed based on molecular sequence data from the internal transcribed spacer subunit 2 (ITS-2) and large subunit (28S) rDNA. A fragment of the cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1 (COI) was also sequenced, followed by the determination of genetic distance and phylogenetic analyses. Integrated data describing L1 of O. macrotis contributes to a broader understanding of the parasite fauna of wild ungulates from North America and may be of relevance for a future revision of the genus. Further, we outline information for differentiation among species of North American protostrongylids, with typical spike-tailed L1s, circulating among free-ranging and semi-domestic ungulates.

Ecological super-spreaders drive host-range oscillations: Omicron and risk space for emerging infectious disease.

The unusual genetic diversity of the Omicron strain has led to speculation about its origin. The mathematical modelling platform developed for the Stockholm Paradigm (SP) indicates strongly that it has retro-colonized humans from an unidentified nonhuman mammal, likely originally infected by humans. The relationship between Omicron and all other SARS-CoV-2 variants indicates oscillations among hosts, a core part of the SP. Such oscillations result from the emergence of novel variants following colonization of new hosts, replenishing and expanding the risk space for disease emergence. The SP predicts that pathogens colonize new hosts using pre-existing capacities. Those events are thus predictable to a certain extent. Novel variants emerge after a colonization and are not predictable. This makes it imperative to take proactive measures for anticipating emerging infectious diseases (EID) and mitigating their impact. The SP suggests a policy protocol, DAMA, to accomplish this goal. DAMA comprises: DOCUMENT to detect pathogens before they emerge in new places or colonize new hosts; ASSESS to determine risk; MONITOR to detect changes in pathogen populations that increase the risk of outbreaks and ACT to prevent outbreaks when possible and minimize their impact when they occur.