OpenSAFELY: The impact of COVID-19 on azathioprine, leflunomide and methotrexate monitoring, and factors associated with change in monitoring rate.

AIMS: The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented pressure on healthcare services. This study investigates whether disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) safety monitoring was affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using the OpenSAFELY platform to access electronic health record data from 24.2 million patients registered at general practices using TPP's SystmOne software. Patients were included for further analysis if prescribed azathioprine, leflunomide or methotrexate between November 2019 and July 2022. Outcomes were assessed as monthly trends and variation between various sociodemographic and clinical groups for adherence with standard safety monitoring recommendations. RESULTS: An acute increase in the rate of missed monitoring occurred across the study population (+12.4 percentage points) when lockdown measures were implemented in March 2020. This increase was more pronounced for some patient groups (70-79 year-olds: +13.7 percentage points; females: +12.8 percentage points), regions (North West: +17.0 percentage points), medications (leflunomide: +20.7 percentage points) and monitoring tests (blood pressure: +24.5 percentage points). Missed monitoring rates decreased substantially for all groups by July 2022. Consistent differences were observed in overall missed monitoring rates between several groups throughout the study. CONCLUSION: DMARD monitoring rates temporarily deteriorated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Deterioration coincided with the onset of lockdown measures, with monitoring rates recovering rapidly as lockdown measures were eased. Differences observed in monitoring rates between medications, tests, regions and patient groups highlight opportunities to tackle potential inequalities in the provision or uptake of monitoring services. Further research should evaluate the causes of the differences identified between groups.

Aromatase inhibition plus/minus Src inhibitor saracatinib (AZD0530) in advanced breast cancer therapy (ARISTACAT): a randomised phase II study.

PURPOSE: The development of oestrogen resistance is a major challenge in managing hormone-sensitive metastatic breast cancer. Saracatinib (AZD0530), an oral Src kinase inhibitor, prevents oestrogen resistance in animal models and reduces osteoclast activity. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of saracatinib addition to aromatase inhibitors (AI) in patients with hormone receptor-positive metastatic breast cancer. METHODS: This phase II multicentre double-blinded randomised trial allocated post-menopausal women to AI with either saracatinib or placebo (1:1 ratio). Patients were stratified into an "AI-sensitive/naïve" group who received anastrozole and "prior-AI" group who received exemestane. Primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR) and toxicity. RESULTS: 140 patients were randomised from 20 UK centres to saracatinib/AI (n = 69) or placebo/AI (n = 71). Saracatinib was not associated with an improved PFS (3.7 months v. 5.6 months placebo/AI) and did not reduce likelihood of bony progression. There was no benefit in OS or ORR. Effects were consistent in "AI-sensitive/naive" and "prior-AI" sub-groups. Saracatinib was well tolerated with dose reductions in 16% and the main side effects were gastrointestinal, hypophosphatemia and rash. CONCLUSION: Saracatinib did not improve outcomes in post-menopausal women with metastatic breast cancer. There was no observed beneficial effect on bone metastases. CRUKE/11/023, ISRCTN23804370.

A Phase II study of neoadjuvant axitinib for reducing the extent of venous tumour thrombus in clear cell renal cell cancer with venous invasion (NAXIVA).

BACKGROUND: Surgery for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) with venous tumour thrombus (VTT) extension into the renal vein (RV) and/or inferior vena cava (IVC) has high peri-surgical morbidity/mortality. NAXIVA assessed the response of VTT to axitinib, a potent tyrosine kinase inhibitor. METHODS: NAXIVA was a single-arm, multi-centre, Phase 2 study. In total, 20 patients with resectable clear cell RCC and VTT received upto 8 weeks of pre-surgical axitinib. The primary endpoint was percentage of evaluable patients with VTT improvement by Mayo level on MRI. Secondary endpoints were percentage change in surgical approach and VTT length, response rate (RECISTv1.1) and surgical morbidity. RESULTS: In all, 35% (7/20) patients with VTT had a reduction in Mayo level with axitinib: 37.5% (6/16) with IVC VTT and 25% (1/4) with RV-only VTT. No patients had an increase in Mayo level. In total, 75% (15/20) of patients had a reduction in VTT length. Overall, 41.2% (7/17) of patients who underwent surgery had less invasive surgery than originally planned. Non-responders exhibited lower baseline microvessel density (CD31), higher Ki67 and exhausted or regulatory T-cell phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: NAXIVA provides the first Level II evidence that axitinib downstages VTT in a significant proportion of patients leading to reduction in the extent of surgery. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03494816.

Dual targeting of p53 and c-MYC selectively eliminates leukaemic stem cells.

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) arises after transformation of a haemopoietic stem cell (HSC) by the protein-tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL. Direct inhibition of BCR-ABL kinase has revolutionized disease management, but fails to eradicate leukaemic stem cells (LSCs), which maintain CML. LSCs are independent of BCR-ABL for survival, providing a rationale for identifying and targeting kinase-independent pathways. Here we show--using proteomics, transcriptomics and network analyses--that in human LSCs, aberrantly expressed proteins, in both imatinib-responder and non-responder patients, are modulated in concert with p53 (also known as TP53) and c-MYC regulation. Perturbation of both p53 and c-MYC, and not BCR-ABL itself, leads to synergistic cell kill, differentiation, and near elimination of transplantable human LSCs in mice, while sparing normal HSCs. This unbiased systems approach targeting connected nodes exemplifies a novel precision medicine strategy providing evidence that LSCs can be eradicated.

hsa-mir183/EGR1-mediated regulation of E2F1 is required for CML stem/progenitor cell survival.

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) stem/progenitor cells (SPCs) express a transcriptional program characteristic of proliferation, yet can achieve and maintain quiescence. Understanding the mechanisms by which leukemic SPCs maintain quiescence will help to clarify how they persist during long-term targeted treatment. We have identified a novel BCR-ABL1 protein kinase-dependent pathway mediated by the upregulation of hsa-mir183, the downregulation of its direct target early growth response 1 (EGR1), and, as a consequence, upregulation of E2F1. We show here that inhibition of hsa-mir183 reduced proliferation and impaired colony formation of CML SPCs. Downstream of this, inhibition of E2F1 also reduced proliferation of CML SPCs, leading to p53-mediated apoptosis. In addition, we demonstrate that E2F1 plays a pivotal role in regulating CML SPC proliferation status. Thus, for the first time, we highlight the mechanism of hsa-mir183/EGR1-mediated E2F1 regulation and demonstrate this axis as a novel, critical factor for CML SPC survival, offering new insights into leukemic stem cell eradication.

CML cells actively evade host immune surveillance through cytokine-mediated downregulation of MHC-II expression.

Targeting the fusion oncoprotein BCR-ABL with tyrosine kinase inhibitors has significantly affected chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) treatment, transforming the life expectancy of patients; however the risk for relapse remains, due to persistence of leukemic stem cells (LSCs). Therefore it is imperative to explore the mechanisms that result in LSC survival and develop new therapeutic approaches. We now show that major histocompatibility complex (MHC)-II and its master regulator class II transactivator (CIITA) are downregulated in CML compared with non-CML stem/progenitor cells in a BCR-ABL kinase-independent manner. Interferon γ (IFN-γ) stimulation resulted in an upregulation of CIITA and MHC-II in CML stem/progenitor cells; however, the extent of IFN-γ-induced MHC-II upregulation was significantly lower than when compared with non-CML CD34+ cells. Interestingly, the expression levels of CIITA and MHC-II significantly increased when CML stem/progenitor cells were treated with the JAK1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib (RUX). Moreover, mixed lymphocyte reactions revealed that exposure of CD34+ CML cells to IFN-γ or RUX significantly enhanced proliferation of the responder CD4+CD69+ T cells. Taken together, these data suggest that cytokine-driven JAK-mediated signals, provided by CML cells and/or the microenvironment, antagonize MHC-II expression, highlighting the potential for developing novel immunomodulatory-based therapies to enable host-mediated immunity to assist in the detection and eradication of CML stem/progenitor cells.

CXCR2 and CXCL4 regulate survival and self-renewal of hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells.

The regulation of hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) survival and self-renewal within the bone marrow (BM) niche is not well understood. We therefore investigated global transcriptomic profiling of normal human HSC/hematopoietic progenitor cells [HPCs], revealing that several chemokine ligands (CXCL1-4, CXCL6, CXCL10, CXCL11, and CXCL13) were upregulated in human quiescent CD34(+)Hoescht(-)Pyronin Y(-) and primitive CD34(+)38(-), as compared with proliferating CD34(+)Hoechst(+)Pyronin Y(+) and CD34(+)38(+) stem/progenitor cells. This suggested that chemokines might play an important role in the homeostasis of HSCs. In human CD34(+) hematopoietic cells, knockdown of CXCL4 or pharmacologic inhibition of the chemokine receptor CXCR2, significantly decreased cell viability and colony forming cell (CFC) potential. Studies on Cxcr2(-/-) mice demonstrated enhanced BM and spleen cellularity, with significantly increased numbers of HSCs, hematopoietic progenitor cell-1 (HPC-1), HPC-2, and Lin(-)Sca-1(+)c-Kit(+) subpopulations. Cxcr2(-/-) stem/progenitor cells showed reduced self-renewal capacity as measured in serial transplantation assays. Parallel studies on Cxcl4 demonstrated reduced numbers of CFC in primary and secondary assays following knockdown in murine c-Kit(+) cells, and Cxcl4(-/-) mice showed a decrease in HSC and reduced self-renewal capacity after secondary transplantation. These data demonstrate that the CXCR2 network and CXCL4 play a role in the maintenance of normal HSC/HPC cell fates, including survival and self-renewal.

The antiproliferative activity of kinase inhibitors in chronic myeloid leukemia cells is mediated by FOXO transcription factors.

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is initiated and maintained by the tyrosine kinase BCR-ABL which activates a number of signal transduction pathways, including PI3K/AKT signaling and consequently inactivates FOXO transcription factors. ABL-specific tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) induce minimal apoptosis in CML progenitor cells, yet exert potent antiproliferative effects, through as yet poorly understood mechanisms. Here, we demonstrate that in CD34+ CML cells, FOXO1 and 3a are inactivated and relocalized to the cytoplasm by BCR-ABL activity. TKIs caused a decrease in phosphorylation of FOXOs, leading to their relocalization from cytoplasm (inactive) to nucleus (active), where they modulated the expression of key FOXO target genes, such as Cyclin D1, ATM, CDKN1C, and BCL6 and induced G1 arrest. Activation of FOXO1 and 3a and a decreased expression of their target gene Cyclin D1 were also observed after 6 days of in vivo treatment with dasatinib in a CML transgenic mouse model. The over-expression of FOXO3a in CML cells combined with TKIs to reduce proliferation, with similar results seen for inhibitors of PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling. While stable expression of an active FOXO3a mutant induced a similar level of quiescence to TKIs alone, shRNA-mediated knockdown of FOXO3a drove CML cells into cell cycle and potentiated TKI-induced apoptosis. These data demonstrate that TKI-induced G1 arrest in CML cells is mediated through inhibition of the PI3K/AKT pathway and reactivation of FOXOs. This enhanced understanding of TKI activity and induced progenitor cell quiescence suggests that new therapeutic strategies for CML should focus on manipulation of this signaling network.

Incidence of diabetes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and the implications of COVID-19 vaccination: a retrospective cohort study of 16 million people.

BACKGROUND: Some studies have shown that the incidence of type 2 diabetes increases after a diagnosis of COVID-19, although the evidence is not conclusive. However, the effects of the COVID-19 vaccine on this association, or the effect on other diabetes subtypes, are not clear. We aimed to investigate the association between COVID-19 and incidence of type 2, type 1, gestational and non-specific diabetes, and the effect of COVID- 19 vaccination, up to 52 weeks after diagnosis. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated the diagnoses of incident diabetes following COVID-19 diagnosis in England in a pre-vaccination, vaccinated, and unvaccinated cohort using linked electronic health records. People alive and aged between 18 years and 110 years, registered with a general practitioner for at least 6 months before baseline, and with available data for sex, region, and area deprivation were included. Those with a previous COVID-19 diagnosis were excluded. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) comparing diabetes incidence after COVID-19 diagnosis with diabetes incidence before or in the absence of COVID-19 up to 102 weeks after diagnosis. Results were stratified by COVID-19 severity (categorised as hospitalised or non-hospitalised) and diabetes type. FINDINGS: 16 669 943 people were included in the pre-vaccination cohort (Jan 1, 2020-Dec 14, 2021), 12 279 669 in the vaccinated cohort, and 3 076 953 in the unvaccinated cohort (both June 1-Dec 14, 2021). In the pre-vaccination cohort, aHRs for the incidence of type 2 diabetes after COVID-19 (compared with before or in the absence of diagnosis) declined from 4·30 (95% CI 4·06-4·55) in weeks 1-4 to 1·24 (1·14-1.35) in weeks 53-102. aHRs were higher in unvaccinated people (8·76 [7·49-10·25]) than in vaccinated people (1·66 [1·50-1·84]) in weeks 1-4 and in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 (pre-vaccination cohort 28·3 [26·2-30·5]) in weeks 1-4 declining to 2·04 [1·72-2·42] in weeks 53-102) than in those who were not hospitalised (1·95 [1·78-2·13] in weeks 1-4 declining to 1·11 [1·01-1·22] in weeks 53-102). Type 2 diabetes persisted for 4 months after COVID-19 in around 60% of those diagnosed. Patterns were similar for type 1 diabetes, although excess incidence did not persist beyond 1 year after a COVID-19 diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Elevated incidence of type 2 diabetes after COVID-19 is greater, and persists for longer, in people who were hospitalised with COVID-19 than in those who were not, and is markedly less apparent in people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Testing for type 2 diabetes after severe COVID-19 and the promotion of vaccination are important tools in addressing this public health problem. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council, UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Health Data Research UK, Diabetes UK, British Heart Foundation, and the Stroke Association.

Leukaemia exposure alters the transcriptional profile and function of BCR::ABL1 negative macrophages in the bone marrow niche.

Macrophages are fundamental cells of the innate immune system that support normal haematopoiesis and play roles in both anti-cancer immunity and tumour progression. Here we use a chimeric mouse model of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) and human bone marrow (BM) derived macrophages to study the impact of the dysregulated BM microenvironment on bystander macrophages. Utilising single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) of Philadelphia chromosome (Ph) negative macrophages we reveal unique subpopulations of immature macrophages residing in the CML BM microenvironment. CML exposed macrophages separate from their normal counterparts by reduced expression of the surface marker CD36, which significantly reduces clearance of apoptotic cells. We uncover aberrant production of CML-secreted factors, including the immune modulatory protein lactotransferrin (LTF), that suppresses efferocytosis, phagocytosis, and CD36 surface expression in BM macrophages, indicating that the elevated secretion of LTF is, at least partially responsible for the supressed clearance function of Ph- macrophages.

Impact of vaccination on the association of COVID-19 with cardiovascular diseases: An OpenSAFELY cohort study.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with an increased risk of arterial and venous thrombotic events, but the implications of vaccination for this increased risk are uncertain. With the approval of NHS England, we quantified associations between COVID-19 diagnosis and cardiovascular diseases in different vaccination and variant eras using linked electronic health records for ~40% of the English population. We defined a 'pre-vaccination' cohort (18,210,937 people) in the wild-type/Alpha variant eras (January 2020-June 2021), and 'vaccinated' and 'unvaccinated' cohorts (13,572,399 and 3,161,485 people respectively) in the Delta variant era (June-December 2021). We showed that the incidence of each arterial thrombotic, venous thrombotic and other cardiovascular outcomes was substantially elevated during weeks 1-4 after COVID-19, compared with before or without COVID-19, but less markedly elevated in time periods beyond week 4. Hazard ratios were higher after hospitalised than non-hospitalised COVID-19 and higher in the pre-vaccination and unvaccinated cohorts than the vaccinated cohort. COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of cardiovascular events after COVID-19 infection. People who had COVID-19 before or without being vaccinated are at higher risk of cardiovascular events for at least two years.

Neonatal and maternal outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination: a population-based matched cohort study.

Understanding the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy on neonatal and maternal outcomes informs clinical decision-making. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study to investigate associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and, separately, COVID-19 vaccination just before or during pregnancy and the risk of adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes among women in Scotland with a singleton pregnancy ending at ≥20 weeks gestation. Neonatal outcomes are stillbirth, neonatal death, extended perinatal mortality, preterm birth (overall, spontaneous, and provider-initiated), small-for-gestational age, and low Apgar score. Maternal outcomes are admission to critical care or death, venous thromboembolism, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and pregnancy-related bleeding. We use conditional logistic regression to derive odds ratios adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical characteristics (aORs). We find that infection is associated with an increased risk of preterm (aOR=1.36, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.16-1.59) and very preterm birth (aOR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.20-3.02), maternal admission to critical care or death (aOR=1.72, 95% CI = 1.39-2.12), and venous thromboembolism (aOR = 2.53, 95% CI = 1.47-4.35). We find no evidence of increased risk for any of our outcomes following vaccination. These data suggest SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy is associated with adverse neonatal and maternal outcomes, and COVID-19 vaccination remains a safe way for pregnant women to protect themselves and their babies against infection.

A population-based matched cohort study of major congenital anomalies following COVID-19 vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Evidence on associations between COVID-19 vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection and the risk of congenital anomalies is limited. Here we report a national, population-based, matched cohort study using linked electronic health records from Scotland (May 2020-April 2022) to estimate the association between COVID-19 vaccination and, separately, SARS-CoV-2 infection between six weeks pre-conception and 19 weeks and six days gestation and the risk of [1] any major congenital anomaly and [2] any non-genetic major congenital anomaly. Mothers vaccinated in this pregnancy exposure period mostly received an mRNA vaccine (73.7% Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and 7.9% Moderna mRNA-1273). Of the 6731 babies whose mothers were vaccinated in the pregnancy exposure period, 153 had any anomaly and 120 had a non-genetic anomaly. Primary analyses find no association between any vaccination and any anomaly (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] = 1.01, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 0.83-1.24) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.81-1.22). Primary analyses also find no association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and any anomaly (aOR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.66-1.60) or non-genetic anomalies (aOR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.57-1.54). Findings are robust to sensitivity analyses. These data provide reassurance on the safety of vaccination, in particular mRNA vaccines, just before or in early pregnancy.

Lifestyle coaching is feasible in fatigued brain tumor patients: A phase I/feasibility, multi-center, mixed-methods randomized controlled trial.

Background: There are no effective treatments for brain tumor-related fatigue. We studied the feasibility of two novel lifestyle coaching interventions in fatigued brain tumor patients. Methods: This phase I/feasibility multi-center RCT recruited patients with a clinically stable primary brain tumor and significant fatigue (mean Brief Fatigue Inventory [BFI] score ≥ 4/10). Participants were randomized in a 1-1-1 allocation ratio to: Control (usual care); Health Coaching ("HC", an eight-week program targeting lifestyle behaviors); or HC plus Activation Coaching ("HC + AC", further targeting self-efficacy). The primary outcome was feasibility of recruitment and retention. Secondary outcomes were intervention acceptability, which was evaluated via qualitative interview, and safety. Exploratory quantitative outcomes were measured at baseline (T0), post-interventions (T1, 10 weeks), and endpoint (T2, 16 weeks). Results: n = 46 fatigued brain tumor patients (T0 BFI mean = 6.8/10) were recruited and 34 were retained to endpoint, establishing feasibility. Engagement with interventions was sustained over time. Qualitative interviews (n = 21) suggested that coaching interventions were broadly acceptable, although mediated by participant outlook and prior lifestyle. Coaching led to significant improvements in fatigue (improvement in BFI versus control at T1: HC=2.2 points [95% CI 0.6, 3.8], HC + AC = 1.8 [0.1, 3.4], Cohen's d [HC] = 1.9; improvement in FACIT-Fatigue: HC = 4.8 points [-3.7, 13.3]; HC + AC = 12 [3.5, 20.5], d [HC and AC] = 0.9). Coaching also improved depressive and mental health outcomes. Modeling suggested a potential limiting effect of higher baseline depressive symptoms. Conclusions: Lifestyle coaching interventions are feasible to deliver to fatigued brain tumor patients. They were manageable, acceptable, and safe, with preliminary evidence of benefit on fatigue and mental health outcomes. Larger trials of efficacy are justified.

Eleven key measures for monitoring general practice clinical activity during COVID-19: A retrospective cohort study using 48 million adults' primary care records in England through OpenSAFELY.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on delivery of NHS care. We have developed the OpenSAFELY Service Restoration Observatory (SRO) to develop key measures of primary care activity and describe the trends in these measures throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we developed an open source software framework for data management and analysis to describe trends and variation in clinical activity across primary care electronic health record (EHR) data on 48 million adults.We developed SNOMED-CT codelists for key measures of primary care clinical activity such as blood pressure monitoring and asthma reviews, selected by an expert clinical advisory group and conducted a population cohort-based study to describe trends and variation in these measures January 2019-December 2021, and pragmatically classified their level of recovery one year into the pandemic using the percentage change in the median practice level rate. Results: We produced 11 measures reflective of clinical activity in general practice. A substantial drop in activity was observed in all measures at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. By April 2021, the median rate had recovered to within 15% of the median rate in April 2019 in six measures. The remaining measures showed a sustained drop, ranging from a 18.5% reduction in medication reviews to a 42.0% reduction in blood pressure monitoring. Three measures continued to show a sustained drop by December 2021. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a substantial change in primary care activity across the measures we developed, with recovery in most measures. We delivered an open source software framework to describe trends and variation in clinical activity across an unprecedented scale of primary care data. We will continue to expand the set of key measures to be routinely monitored using our publicly available NHS OpenSAFELY SRO dashboards with near real-time data. Funding: This research used data assets made available as part of the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20058).The OpenSAFELY Platform is supported by grants from the Wellcome Trust (222097/Z/20/Z); MRC (MR/V015757/1, MC_PC-20059, MR/W016729/1); NIHR (NIHR135559, COV-LT2-0073), and Health Data Research UK (HDRUK2021.000, 2021.0157).

Trends, variation, and clinical characteristics of recipients of antiviral drugs and neutralising monoclonal antibodies for covid-19 in community settings: retrospective, descriptive cohort study of 23.4 million people in OpenSAFELY.

Objective: To ascertain patient eligibility status and describe coverage of antiviral drugs and neutralising monoclonal antibodies (nMAB) as treatment for covid-19 in community settings in England. Design: Retrospective, descriptive cohort study, approved by NHS England. Setting: Routine clinical data from 23.4 million people linked to data on covid-19 infection and treatment, within the OpenSAFELY-TPP database. Participants: Outpatients with covid-19 at high risk of severe outcomes. Interventions: Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (paxlovid), sotrovimab, molnupiravir, casirivimab/imdevimab, or remdesivir, used in the community by covid-19 medicine delivery units. Results: 93 870 outpatients with covid-19 were identified between 11 December 2021 and 28 April 2022 to be at high risk of severe outcomes and therefore potentially eligible for antiviral or nMAB treatment (or both). Of these patients, 19 040 (20%) received treatment (sotrovimab, 9660 (51%); molnupiravir, 4620 (24%); paxlovid, 4680 (25%); casirivimab/imdevimab, 50 (<1%); and remdesivir, 30 (<1%)). The proportion of patients treated increased from 9% (190/2220) in the first week of treatment availability to 29% (460/1600) in the latest week. The proportion treated varied by high risk group, being lowest in those with liver disease (16%; 95% confidence interval 15% to 17%); by treatment type, with sotrovimab favoured over molnupiravir and paxlovid in all but three high risk groups (Down's syndrome (35%; 30% to 39%), rare neurological conditions (45%; 43% to 47%), and immune deficiencies (48%; 47% to 50%)); by age, ranging from ≥80 years (13%; 12% to 14%) to 50-59 years (23%; 22% to 23%); by ethnic group, ranging from black (11%; 10% to 12%) to white (21%; 21% to 21%); by NHS region, ranging from 13% (12% to 14%) in Yorkshire and the Humber to 25% (24% to 25%) in the East of England); and by deprivation level, ranging from 15% (14% to 15%) in the most deprived areas to 23% (23% to 24%) in the least deprived areas. Groups that also had lower coverage included unvaccinated patients (7%; 6% to 9%), those with dementia (6%; 5% to 7%), and care home residents (6%; 6% to 7%). Conclusions: Using the OpenSAFELY platform, we were able to identify patients with covid-19 at high risk of severe outcomes who were potentially eligible to receive treatment and assess the coverage of these new treatments among these patients. In the context of a rapid deployment of a new service, the NHS analytical code used to determine eligibility could have been over-inclusive and some of the eligibility criteria not fully captured in healthcare data. However targeted activity might be needed to resolve apparent lower treatment coverage observed among certain groups, in particular (at present): different NHS regions, ethnic groups, people aged ≥80 years, those living in socioeconomically deprived areas, and care home residents.

Predictive response-relevant clustering of expression data provides insights into disease processes.

This article describes and illustrates a novel method of microarray data analysis that couples model-based clustering and binary classification to form clusters of `response-relevant' genes; that is, genes that are informative when discriminating between the different values of the response. Predictions are subsequently made using an appropriate statistical summary of each gene cluster, which we call the `meta-covariate' representation of the cluster, in a probit regression model. We first illustrate this method by analysing a leukaemia expression dataset, before focusing closely on the meta-covariate analysis of a renal gene expression dataset in a rat model of salt-sensitive hypertension. We explore the biological insights provided by our analysis of these data. In particular, we identify a highly influential cluster of 13 genes--including three transcription factors (Arntl, Bhlhe41 and Npas2)-that is implicated as being protective against hypertension in response to increased dietary sodium. Functional and canonical pathway analysis of this cluster using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis implicated transcriptional activation and circadian rhythm signalling, respectively. Although we illustrate our method using only expression data, the method is applicable to any high-dimensional datasets. Expression data are available at ArrayExpress (accession number E-MEXP-2514) and code is available at http://www.dcs.gla.ac.uk/inference/metacovariateanalysis/.

Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Independent Gene Expression Signature in CML Offers New Targets for LSPC Eradication Therapy.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have revolutionised the treatment of CML. However, TKI do not eliminate the leukaemia stem cells (LSC), which can re-initiate the disease. Thus, finding new therapeutic targets in CML LSC is key to finding a curative treatment. Using microarray datasets, we defined a list of 227 genes that were differentially expressed in CML LSC compared to the healthy controls but were not affected by TKI in vitro. Two of them, CD33 and PPIF, are targeted by gemtuzumab-ozogamicin and cyclosporin A, respectively. We treated CML and the control CD34+ cells with either drug with or without imatinib to investigate the therapeutic potential of the TKI-independent gene expression programme. Cyclosporine A, in combination with imatinib, reduced the number of CML CFC compared with non-CML controls, but only at supra-therapeutic concentrations. Gemtuzumab-ozogamicin showed an EC50 of 146 ng/mL, below the plasma peak concentration of 630 ng/mL observed in the AML patients and below the EC50 of 3247 ng/mL observed in the non-CML cells. Interestingly, gemtuzumab-ozogamicin seems to promote cell cycle progression in CML CD34+ cells and demonstrated activation of the RUNX1 pathway in an RNAseq experiment. This suggests that targeting the TKI-independent genes in CML LSC could be exploited for the development of new therapies in CML.

Identifying Patterns of Clinical Interest in Clinicians' Treatment Preferences: Hypothesis-free Data Science Approach to Prioritizing Prescribing Outliers for Clinical Review.

BACKGROUND: Data analysis is used to identify signals suggestive of variation in treatment choice or clinical outcome. Analyses to date have generally focused on a hypothesis-driven approach. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a hypothesis-free approach to identify unusual prescribing behavior in primary care data. We aimed to apply this methodology to a national data set in a cross-sectional study to identify chemicals with significant variation in use across Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) for further clinical review, thereby demonstrating proof of concept for prioritization approaches. METHODS: Here we report a new data-driven approach to identify unusual prescribing behaviour in primary care data. This approach first applies a set of filtering steps to identify chemicals with prescribing rate distributions likely to contain outliers, then applies two ranking approaches to identify the most extreme outliers amongst those candidates. This methodology has been applied to three months of national prescribing data (June-August 2017). RESULTS: Our methodology provides rankings for all chemicals by administrative region. We provide illustrative results for 2 antipsychotic drugs of particular clinical interest: promazine hydrochloride and pericyazine, which rank highly by outlier metrics. Specifically, our method identifies that, while promazine hydrochloride and pericyazine are barely used by most clinicians (with national prescribing rates of 11.1 and 6.2 per 1000 antipsychotic prescriptions, respectively), they make up a substantial proportion of antipsychotic prescribing in 2 small geographic regions in England during the study period (with maximum regional prescribing rates of 298.7 and 241.1 per 1000 antipsychotic prescriptions, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our hypothesis-free approach is able to identify candidates for audit and review in clinical practice. To illustrate this, we provide 2 examples of 2 very unusual antipsychotics used disproportionately in 2 small geographic areas of England.

Pregnancy outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection in periods dominated by delta and omicron variants in Scotland: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1·1.529) is associated with lower risks of adverse outcomes than the delta (B.1.617.2) variant among the general population. However, little is known about outcomes after omicron infection in pregnancy. We aimed to assess and compare short-term pregnancy outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 delta and omicron infection in pregnancy. METHODS: We did a national population-based cohort study of women who had SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy between May 17, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022. The primary maternal outcome was admission to critical care within 21 days of infection or death within 28 days of date of infection. Pregnancy outcomes were preterm birth and stillbirth within 28 days of infection. Neonatal outcomes were death within 28 days of birth, and low Apgar score (<7 of 10, for babies born at term) or neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection in births occurring within 28 days of maternal infection. We used periods when variants were dominant in the general Scottish population, based on 50% or more of cases being S-gene positive (delta variant, from May 17 to Dec 14, 2021) or S-gene negative (omicron variant, from Dec 15, 2021, to Jan 31, 2022) as surrogates for variant infections. Analyses used logistic regression, adjusting for maternal age, deprivation quintile, ethnicity, weeks of gestation, and vaccination status. Sensitivity analyses included restricting the analysis to those with first confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and using periods when delta or omicron had 90% or more predominance. FINDINGS: Between May 17, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022, there were 9923 SARS-CoV-2 infections in 9823 pregnancies, in 9817 women in Scotland. Compared with infections in the delta-dominant period, SARS-CoV-2 infections in pregnancy in the omicron-dominant period were associated with lower maternal critical care admission risk (0·3% [13 of 4968] vs 1·8% [89 of 4955]; adjusted odds ratio 0·25, 95% CI 0·14-0·44) and lower preterm birth within 28 days of infection (1·8% [37 of 2048] vs 4·2% [98 of 2338]; 0·57, 95% CI 0·38-0·87). There were no maternal deaths within 28 days of infection. Estimates of low Apgar scores were imprecise due to low numbers (5 [1·2%] of 423 with omicron vs 11 [2·1%] of 528 with delta, adjusted odds ratio 0·72, 0·23-2·32). There were fewer stillbirths in the omicron-dominant period than in the delta-dominant period (4·3 [2 of 462] per 1000 births vs 20·3 [13 of 639] per 1000) and no neonatal deaths during the omicron-dominant period (0 [0 of 460] per 1000 births vs 6·3 [4 of 626] per 1000 births), thus numbers were too small to support adjusted analyses. Rates of neonatal infection were low in births within 28 days of maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection, with 11 cases of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 in the delta-dominant period, and 1 case in the omicron-dominant period. Of the 15 stillbirths, 12 occurred in women who had not received two or more doses of COVID-19 vaccination at the time of SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy. All 12 cases of neonatal SARS-CoV-2 infection occurred in women who had not received two or more doses of vaccine at the time of maternal infection. Findings in sensitivity analyses were similar to those in the main analyses. INTERPRETATION: Pregnant women infected with SARS-CoV-2 were substantially less likely to have a preterm birth or maternal critical care admission during the omicron-dominant period than during the delta-dominant period. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Tommy's charity, Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, Health Data Research UK, National Core Studies-Data and Connectivity, Public Health Scotland, Scottish Government Health and Social Care, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office, National Research Scotland.