From Ebola to COVID-19: emergency preparedness and response plans and actions in Lagos, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Lagos state is the industrial nerve centre of Nigeria and was the epicentre of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Nigeria as it is now for the current Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak. This paper describes how the lessons learned from the Ebola outbreak in 2014 informed the emergency preparedness of the State ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak and guided response. DISCUSSION: Following the Ebola outbreak in 2014, the Lagos State government provided governance by developing a policy on emergency preparedness and biosecurity and provided oversight and coordination of emergency preparedness strategies. Capacities for emergency response were strengthened by training key staff, developing a robust surveillance system, and setting up a Biosafety Level 3 laboratory and biobank. Resource provision, in terms of finances and trained personnel for emergencies was prioritized by the government. With the onset of COVID-19, Lagos state was able to respond promptly to the outbreak using the centralized Incident Command Structure and the key activities of the Emergency Operations Centre. Contributory to effective response were partnerships with the private sectors, community engagement and political commitment. CONCLUSION: Using the lessons learned from the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Lagos State had gradually prepared its healthcare system for a pandemic such as COVID-19. The State needs to continue to expand its preparedness to be more resilient and future proof to respond to disease outbreaks. Looking beyond intra-state gains, lessons and identified best practices from the past and present should be shared with other states and countries.

Predictive ability of symptomatology in COVID-19 during Active case search in Lagos State, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: In April 2020, a community-based active case search surveillance system of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was developed by the emergency outbreak committee in Lagos State. This followed the evidence of community transmission of coronavirus disease in the twenty Local Government Areas in Lagos State. This study assessed the value of respiratory and other symptoms in predicting positive SARS-CoV-2 using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). It is hoped that if symptoms are predictive, they can be used in screening before testing. METHODS: Communities were included based on the alerts from community members through the rumour alert system set up by the state. All members of the households of the communities from where the alert came were eligible. Household members who declined to participate were excluded from the study. A standardised interviewer-administered electronic investigation form was used to collect sociodemographic information, clinical details and history for each possible case. Data was analysed to see the extent of agreement or correlation between reported symptoms and the results of PCR testing for SARS-COV-2. RESULTS: A total of 12,739 persons were interviewed. The most common symptoms were fever, general weakness, cough and difficulty in breathing. Different symptoms recorded different levels of sensitivity as follows: fever, 28.9%; cough, 21.7%; general body weakness, 10.9%; and sore throat, 10.9%. Sensitivity and specificity for fever, the most common symptom, were 28.3% and 50.2%, respectively, while similar parameters for general body weakness, the next most common symptom, were 10.9% and 73.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: From these findings, the predictive ability of symptoms for COVID-19 diagnosis was extremely weak. It is unlikely that symptoms alone will suffice to predict COVID-19 in a patient. An additional measure, such as confirmatory test by RT-PCR testing, is necessary to confirm the disease.

An account of the Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: implications and lessons learnt.

BACKGROUND: The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak remains unprecedented both in the number of cases, deaths and geographic scope. The first case of EVD was confirmed in Lagos Nigeria on 23 July 2014 and spread to involve 19 laboratory-confirmed EVD cases. The EVD cases were not limited to Lagos State as Rivers State recorded 2 confirmed cases of EVD with 1 out of the 2 dying. Swift implementation of public health measures were sufficient to forestall a country -wide spread of this dreaded disease. This exploratory formative research describes the events of the Nigeria Ebola crisis in 2014. METHODS: This research was implemented through key informant in-depth interviews involving 15 stakeholders in the EVD outbreak in Nigeria by a team of two or three interviewers. Most of the interviews were conducted face-to-face at the various offices of the respondents and others were via the telephone. The interviews which lasted an hour on average were conducted in English, digitally recorded and notes were also taken. RESULTS: This study elucidated the public health response to the Ebola outbreak led by Lagos State Government in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Health. The principal strategy was an incident management approach which saw them identify and successfully follow up 894 contacts. The infected EVD cases were quarantined and treated. The Nigerian private sector and international organizations made significant contributions to the control efforts. Public health enlightenment programmes using multimodal communication strategies were rapidly deployed. Water and sanitary facilities were provided in many public schools in Lagos. CONCLUSIONS: The 2014 Ebola outbreak in Nigeria was effectively controlled using the incident management approach with massive support provided by the private sector and international community. Eight of the confirmed cases of EVD in Nigeria eventually died (case fatality rate of 42.1%) and twelve were nursed back to good health. On October 20 2014 Nigeria was declared fee of EVD by the World Health Organization. The Nigerian EVD experience provides valuable insights to guide reforms of African health systems in preparation for future infectious diseases outbreaks.

Lagos state ambulance service: a performance evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The mortality rate from road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Nigeria is almost double that of the USA. In Nigeria, the first emergency medical services (EMS) system was established in March 2001, The Lagos State Ambulance Service (LASAMBUS). The objectives of this study are to (1) determine the burden of RTAs in Lagos, (2) assess RTA call outcomes, and (3) analyze LASAMBUS's response time and causes for delay. METHODOLOGY: We reviewed completed LASAMBUS intervention forms spanning December 2017 to May 2018. We categorized the call outcomes into five groups: I. Addressed Crash, II. No Crash (False Call), III. Crash Already Addressed, IV. Did Not Respond, and V. Other. We further explored associations between the (1) causes for delay and outcomes and (2) response times and the outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, we analyzed 1352 intervention forms. We found that LASAMBUS did not address 53% of the RTA calls that they received. Of this, Outcome II. No Crash (False Call) accounted for 26% and Outcome III. Crash Already Addressed accounted for 22%. Self-reported causes for delay were recorded in 180 forms, representing 13.7% of the RTA burden. Traffic congestion accounted for 60% of this distribution. CONCLUSION: LASAMBUS response rates are significantly lower than response rates in high-income countries such as the USA and lead to increased RTA mortality rates. Eliminating causes for delay will improve both LASAMBUS effectiveness and RTA victims' health outcomes. Changing the public perception of LASAMBUS and standardizing LASAMBUS' contact information will aid this as well.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients with comorbidities in southwest Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Data on the comorbidities that result in negative outcomes for people with COVID-19 are currently scarce for African populations. This study identifies comorbidities that predict death among a large sample of COVID-19 patients from Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of medical records for 2184 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Lagos, southwest Nigeria. Extracted data included age, sex, severity of condition at presentation and self-reported comorbidities. The outcomes of interest were death or discharge from facility. RESULTS: Most of the cases were male (65.8%) and the median age was 43 years (IQR: 33-55). Four hundred and ninety-two patients (22.5%) had at least one comorbidity and the most common amongst them were hypertension (74.2%) and diabetes (30.3%). The mortality rate was 3.3% and a significantly higher proportion of patients with comorbidities died compared to those with none. The comorbidities that predicted death were hypertension (OR: 2.21, 95%CI: 1.22-4.01), diabetes (OR: 3.69, 95% CI: 1.99-6.85), renal disease (OR: 12.53, 95%CI: 1.97-79.56), cancer (OR: 14.12, 95% CI: 2.03-98.19) and HIV (OR: 1.77-84.15]. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities are prevalent and the associated risk of death is high among COVID-19 patients in Lagos, Nigeria. Public enlightenment, early identification and targeted care for COVID-19 cases with comorbidities are recommended as the pandemic evolves.

Morbidity and mortality outcomes of COVID-19 patients with and without hypertension in Lagos, Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has shown epidemiological and clinical characteristics that appear worsened in hypertensive patients. The morbidity and mortality of the disease among hypertensive patients in Africa have yet to be well described. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study all confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (≥18 years of age) in Lagos between February 27 to July 62,020 were included. Demographic, clinical and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records of patients admitted at the COVID-19 isolation centers in Lagos. Outcomes included dying, being discharged after recovery or being evacuated/transferred. Descriptive statistics considered proportions, means and medians. The Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used in determining associations between variables. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression were performed to quantify the risk of worse outcomes among hypertensives with COVID-19 and adjust for confounders. P-value ≤0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: A total of 2075 adults with COVID-19 were included in this study. The prevalence of hypertension, the most common comorbidity, was 17.8% followed by diabetes (7.2%) and asthma (2.0%). Overall mortality was 4.2% while mortality among the hypertensives was 13.7%. Severe symptoms and mortality were significantly higher among the hypertensives and survival rates were significantly lowered by the presence of additional comorbidity to 50% from 91% for those with hypertension alone and from 98% for all other patients (P < 0.001). After adjustment for confounders (age and sex), severe COVID-19and death were higher for hypertensives {severe/critical illness: HR = 2.41, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.4-4.0, death: HR = 2.30, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 1.2-4.6, for those with hypertension only} {severe/critical illness: HR = 3.76, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 2.1-6.4, death: crude HR = 6.63, P = 0.001, 95%CI = 3.4-1.6, for those with additional comorbidities}. Hypertension posed an increased risk of severe morbidity (approx. 4-fold) and death (approx. 7-fold) from COVID-19 in the presence of multiple comorbidities. CONCLUSION: The potential morbidity and mortality risks of hypertension especially with other comorbidities in COVID-19 could help direct efforts towards prevention and prognostication. This provides the rationale for improving preventive caution for people with hypertension and other comorbidities and prioritizing them for future antiviral interventions.

Clinical presentation, case management and outcomes for the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Success in curtailing the pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) depends largely on a sound understanding of the epidemiologic and clinical profile of cases in a population as well as the case management approach. This study documents the presenting characteristics, treatment modalities and outcomes of the first 32 COVID-19 patients in Nigeria. METHODS: This retrospective study used medical records of the first 32 patients admitted and discharged from the Mainland Hospital, Lagos State, southwest Nigeria between February 27 and April 6, 2020. The outcomes of interest were death, promptness of admission process and duration of hospitalization. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 38.1 years (SD: 15.5) and 66% were male. Three-quarters (75%) of the patients presented in moderately severe condition while 16% were asymptomatic. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (59%) and dry cough (44%). The mean time between a positive test result and admission was 1.63 days (SD: 1.31). Almost all (97%) the patients were treated with lopinavir-ritonavir with no recorded death. The median duration of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR: 9-13.5). CONCLUSION: In this preliminary analysis of the first COVID-19 cases in Nigeria, clinical presentation was mild to moderate with no mortality. Processes to improve promptness of admission and reduce hospital stay are required to enhance the response to COVID-19 in Nigeria.

When policy meets the pedal: A reduction in motorcyclist fatalities following the implementation of a road traffic law in Lagos, Nigeria.

Objective: The Lagos State Road Traffic Law of 2012 sought to curb reckless okada use and the objective of this study is to determine its impact on motorcyclist fatalities in Nigeria's most densely populated state. This is the first study to date that analyzes the potential impact of the Law on motorcyclist fatalities across Lagos State.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed monthly motorcyclist fatalities in Lagos between January 2012 and December 2015. We analyzed the data using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and used Quantum GIS ver. 2.16.2 to create maps illustrating the spatial-epidemiological distribution of motorcyclist fatalities across Lagos' health facilities. The data was collated into three eight-month periods for analysis (pre-intervention, immediate post-intervention, and sustained post-intervention). Period 1 was January to August 2012, Period 2 was September 2012 to April 2013, and Period 3 was May to December 2013. The data were compared in SPSS using the Welch's ANOVA and Tanhame (post-hoc) tests with a 5% significance level.Results: Motorcyclist fatalities in Lagos fell by an average of 76% over the study period. Over 55% of the fatalities were recorded in five health facilities, located in an area of high road network density. The number of newly registered motorcycles also declined by an average of 69%. The Welch's ANOVA yielded a statistically significant difference between the Periods' means (p < 0.0001). The Tamhane post-hoc test showed significant differences in the mean decrease in fatalities between Period 1 and Period 2 (p = 0.002), and Period 1 and Period 3 (p < 0.0001).Conclusions: This study shows a significant decline in motorcyclist fatalities following the implementation of the Lagos State Road Traffic Law of 2012. A more comprehensive approach to data collection along with an updated law could contribute towards a sustainable reduction of motorcyclist mortality.

Transforming vaccines supply chains in Nigeria.

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and in 2012 was suffering some of the lowest vaccination rates in the World. A combination of factors had resulted in a dysfunctional immunization cold chain and supply chain. Recognizing that the number of unimmunized children contributed to high levels of under-5-mortality, and that health MDGs would not be attained, Minister of State for Health Mohammed Pate launched a vaccines transformation project in 2013. In partnership with BMGF, GAVI, UNICEF, WHO, other donors and implementing partners the transformation journey has so far taken three years and achieved impressive results. It has though faced challenges along the way and with the financial burden of GAVI graduation facing Nigeria, the economic downturn and the decentralized funding of health services, the results are far from sustained. This paper documents the work undertaken at the Federal level and then highlights specific work undertaken in partnership with Lagos State Government. It identifies the importance of taking an end to end approach and looking at the root causes of weak system performance. The strategy combined simple innovations in how data was captured, recorded and used to drive decision making. It included a comprehensive and systematic approach to cold chain procurement, installation and maintenance with a shift to a culture of active cold chain maintenance that is performing with higher levels of uptime. It also included supply chain redesign at both the Federal and State level. Finally, it involved an institutional transformation at the National Primary Health Care Development Agency (NPHCDA) to establish a data driven Department of Logistics and Health Commodities (DLHC) to manage the many challenges in immunizing 7.5 million children annually. While results have been impressive, there have been many challenges and lessons learned on the way. As Nigeria gets ready for its graduation from GAVI, a robust agile performing cold chain and supply chain will be essential for the good health of Nigeria's children and its economy. The necessary transformation journey has only just begun.

Biosafety level-2 laboratory diagnosis of Zaire Ebola virus disease imported from Liberia to Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Global travel is an efficient route of transmission for highly infectious pathogens and increases the chances of such pathogens moving from high disease-endemic areas to new regions. We describe the rapid and safe identification of the first imported case of Ebola virus disease in a traveler to Lagos, Nigeria, using conventional reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in a biosafety level (BSL)-2 facility. CASE PRESENTATION: On 20 July 2014, a traveler arrived from Liberia at Lagos International Airport and was admitted to a private hospital in Lagos, with clinical suspicion of Ebola virus disease. METHODOLOGY AND OUTCOME: Blood and urine specimens were collected, transported to the Virology Unit Laboratory at the College of Medicine, University of Lagos, and processed under stringent biosafety conditions for viral RNA extraction. RT-PCR was set-up to query the Ebola, Lassa and Dengue fever viruses. Amplicons for pan-filoviruses were detected as 300 bp bands on a 1.5% agarose gel image; there were no detectable bands for Lassa and Dengue viral RNA. Nucleotide BLAST and phylogenetic analysis of sequence data of the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (L) gene confirmed the sequence to be Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV/Hsap/NGA/2014/LIB-NIG 01072014; Genbank: KM251803.1). CONCLUSION: Our BSL-2 facility in Lagos, Nigeria, was able to safely detect Ebola virus disease using molecular techniques, supporting the reliability of molecular detection of highly infectious viral pathogens under stringent safety guidelines in BSL-2 laboratories. This is a significant lesson for the many under-facilitated laboratories in resource-limited settings, as is predominantly found in sub-Saharan Africa.