Long-term data reveal contrasting impacts of native versus invasive nest predators in Iceland.

Bird species on islands are strongly impacted by biological invasions, with the Icelandic common eider (Somateria mollissima borealis) being particularly threatened. Down collection by local families in Breiðafjörður, West Iceland, provided long-term datasets of nests from two archipelagos, covering 95 islands over 123 years and 39 islands over 27 years, respectively. Using these exceptional datasets, we found that the arrival of the invasive semi-aquatic American mink (Neogale vison) was a more impactful driver of population dynamics than climate. This invasive predator heavily reduced eider nest numbers by ca. 60% in the Brokey archipelago. In contrast, we detected an apparently adaptive response to the return of the native fox in the Purkey archipelago, with dense nests on islands inaccessible to the fox and no apparent impact on eider populations. This difference might be due to the eiders lacking a joint evolutionary history with the mink and therefore lacking appropriate antipredator responses.

Global dissemination of influenza A virus is driven by wild bird migration through arctic and subarctic zones.

Influenza A viruses (IAV) circulate endemically among many wild aquatic bird populations that seasonally migrate between wintering grounds in southern latitudes to breeding ranges along the perimeter of the circumpolar arctic. Arctic and subarctic zones are hypothesized to serve as ecologic drivers of the intercontinental movement and reassortment of IAVs due to high densities of disparate populations of long distance migratory and native bird species present during breeding seasons. Iceland is a staging ground that connects the East Atlantic and North Atlantic American flyways, providing a unique study system for characterizing viral flow between eastern and western hemispheres. Using Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we sought to evaluate the viral connectivity of Iceland to proximal regions and how inter-species transmission and reassortment dynamics in this region influence the geographic spread of low and highly pathogenic IAVs. Findings demonstrate that IAV movement in the arctic and subarctic reflects wild bird migration around the perimeter of the circumpolar north, favouring short-distance flights between proximal regions rather than long distance flights over the polar interior. Iceland connects virus movement between mainland Europe and North America, consistent with the westward migration of wild birds from mainland Europe to Northeastern Canada and Greenland. Though virus diffusion rates were similar among avian taxonomic groups in Iceland, gulls play an outsized role as sinks of IAVs from other avian hosts prior to onward migration. These data identify patterns of virus movement in northern latitudes and inform future surveillance strategies related to seasonal and emergent IAVs with potential public health concern.

Nesting Synchrony and Clutch Size in Migratory Birds: Capital versus Income Breeding Determines Responses to Variable Spring Onset.

AbstractSynchronous reproduction of birds has often been explained by benefits from nesting together, but this concept fails to explain observed intraspecific variation and climate-mediated changes of breeding synchrony. Here, we present a theoretical model of birds that store resources for reproduction (capital breeders) to show how breeding synchrony, clutch size, and offspring recruitment respond to changes in timing of first possible breeding date. Our approach is based on individual fitness maximization when both prebreeding foraging and offspring development are time constrained. The model predicts less synchronous breeding, smaller clutch size, and higher chances for offspring recruitment in capital breeding birds that advance their nesting. For contrast, we also show that birds that need to acquire resources during egg laying (income breeders) do not change nesting synchrony but increase clutch size along with earlier breeding. The prediction of stronger nesting synchronization of capital breeders in years with late nesting onset is confirmed by empirical data on breeding synchrony of a high-latitude capital breeding sea duck, the common eider (Somateria mollissima). We predict that in warming high-latitude ecosystems, bird species that depend on stored reserves for reproduction are expected to desynchronize their nesting.

Mercury contamination and potential health risks to Arctic seabirds and shorebirds.

Since the last Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) effort to review biological effects of mercury (Hg) on Arctic biota in 2011 and 2018, there has been a considerable number of new Arctic bird studies. This review article provides contemporary Hg exposure and potential health risk for 36 Arctic seabird and shorebird species, representing a larger portion of the Arctic than during previous AMAP assessments now also including parts of the Russian Arctic. To assess risk to birds, we used Hg toxicity benchmarks established for blood and converted to egg, liver, and feather tissues. Several Arctic seabird populations showed Hg concentrations that exceeded toxicity benchmarks, with 50 % of individual birds exceeding the "no adverse health effect" level. In particular, 5 % of all studied birds were considered to be at moderate or higher risk to Hg toxicity. However, most seabirds (95 %) were generally at lower risk to Hg toxicity. The highest Hg contamination was observed in seabirds breeding in the western Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Most Arctic shorebirds exhibited low Hg concentrations, with approximately 45 % of individuals categorized at no risk, 2.5 % at high risk category, and no individual at severe risk. Although the majority Arctic-breeding seabirds and shorebirds appeared at lower risk to Hg toxicity, recent studies have reported deleterious effects of Hg on some pituitary hormones, genotoxicity, and reproductive performance. Adult survival appeared unaffected by Hg exposure, although long-term banding studies incorporating Hg are still limited. Although Hg contamination across the Arctic is considered low for most bird species, Hg in combination with other stressors, including other contaminants, diseases, parasites, and climate change, may still cause adverse effects. Future investigations on the global impact of Hg on Arctic birds should be conducted within a multi-stressor framework. This information helps to address Article 22 (Effectiveness Evaluation) of the Minamata Convention on Mercury as a global pollutant.

Environmental and life-history factors influence inter-colony multidimensional niche metrics of a breeding Arctic marine bird.

Human industrialization has resulted in rapid climate change, leading to wide-scale environmental shifts. These shifts can modify food web dynamics by altering the abundance and distribution of primary producers (ice algae and phytoplankton), as well as animals at higher trophic levels. Methylmercury (MeHg) is a neuro-endocrine disrupting compound which biomagnifies in animals as a function of prey choice, and as such bioavailability is affected by altered food web dynamics and adds an important risk-based dimension in studies of foraging ecology. Multidimensional niche dynamics (MDND; δ13C, δ15N, THg; total mercury) were determined among breeding common eider (Somateria mollissima) ducks sampled from 10 breeding colonies distributed across the circumpolar Arctic and subarctic. Results showed high variation in MDND among colonies as indicated by niche size and ranges in δ13C, δ15N and THg values in relation to spatial differences in primary production inferred from sea-ice presence and colony migratory status. Colonies with higher sea-ice cover during the pre-incubation period had higher median colony THg, δ15N, and δ13C. Individuals at migratory colonies had relatively higher THg and δ15N, and lower δ13C, suggesting a higher trophic position and a greater reliance on phytoplankton-based prey. It was concluded that variation in MDND exists among eider colonies which influenced individual blood THg concentrations. Further exploration of spatial ecotoxicology and MDND at each individual site is important to examine the relationships between anthropogenic activities, foraging behaviour, and the related risks of contaminant exposure at even low, sub-lethal concentrations that may contribute to deleterious effects on population stability over time. Overall, multidimensional niche analysis that incorporates multiple isotopic and contaminant metrics could help identify those populations at risk to rapidly altered food web dynamics.

A risk assessment of the effects of mercury on Baltic Sea, Greater North Sea and North Atlantic wildlife, fish and bivalves.

A wide range of species, including marine mammals, seabirds, birds of prey, fish and bivalves, were investigated for potential population health risks resulting from contemporary (post 2000) mercury (Hg) exposure, using novel risk thresholds based on literature and de novo contamination data. The main geographic focus is on the Baltic Sea, while data from the same species in adjacent waters, such as the Greater North Sea and North Atlantic, were included for comparative purposes. For marine mammals, 23% of the groups, each composing individuals of a specific sex and maturity from the same species in a specific study region, showed Hg-concentrations within the High Risk Category (HRC) and Severe Risk Category (SRC). The corresponding percentages for seabirds, fish and bivalves were 2.7%, 25% and 8.0%, respectively, although fish and bivalves were not represented in the SRC. Juveniles from all species showed to be at no or low risk. In comparison to the same species in the adjacent waters, i.e. the Greater North Sea and the North Atlantic, the estimated risk for Baltic populations is not considerably higher. These findings suggest that over the past few decades the Baltic Sea has improved considerably with respect to presenting Hg exposure to its local species, while it does still carry a legacy of elevated Hg levels resulting from high neighbouring industrial and agricultural activity and slow water turnover regime.

Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: Limitation at the regional and metapopulation level.

We studied a metapopulation of great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) in Iceland, using complete aerial censuses of nests in 25 years during 1975-2015. Age composition was estimated in 1998-2014 by ground surveys in September and February. Brood size was estimated from aerial photographs in 2007-2015.Weather, food, breeding habitat, and density were considered as explanatory variables when examining numerical and distributional changes in the cormorant metapopulation.In 1975-1990 total nest numbers changed little, very low numbers about 1992 were followed by an annual increase of 3.5% in 1994-2015. Total nest numbers were positively correlated with estimates of spawning stocks of cod and saithe and inversely related to the subpolar gyre index (SPG-I).During the increase in 1994-2015, average colony size at first increased and then declined. Habitat use also changed: the proportion of nests on small rocky islets (skerries) at first declined, from 69% to 44% in 1995-2003 and then increased again to about 58% in 2012-2014. Habitat changes were probably a response to changed patterns of human disturbance.Breeding density, as nests per km2 sea <20 m deep, was rather uniform among five defined regions in 1975-1996. Thereafter, densities became much higher in two sheltered regions with kelp forests and in one mostly exposed region. A second exposed region remained low and in the third nest numbers declined markedly. Thus, carrying capacity was higher in sheltered regions where cormorant breeding had historically been depressed by human disturbance.Brood size varied little among regions but declined with the years from about 2.5 to 1.8.The proportion of juveniles in September (fecundity) declined in 1998-2015 from over 0.4 to 0.3 and was inversely correlated with year and nest numbers, if outlier years were excluded, suggesting resource limitation. Survival of juvenile cormorants in September-February was estimated at 0.471 ± 0.066 SE. Commercial fish stocks and climate indices were not correlated with the proportion of juveniles.Annual survival of adults (breeding and nonbreeding) was estimated from nest counts and age composition 1999-2014, as 0.850 ± 0.026 SE and showed no trend in 1998-2014.We conclude that the metapopulation of cormorants in Iceland was resource-limited at two levels: fecundity at the regional and winter survival at the total level.

Do foraging methods in winter affect morphology during growth in juvenile snow geese?

Physical exertion during growth can affect ultimate size and density of skeletal structures. Such changes from different exercise regimes may explain morphological differences between groups, such as those exhibited by lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens; hereafter snow geese) foraging in southwest Louisiana. In rice-prairie habitats (hereafter rice-prairies), snow geese bite off or graze aboveground vegetation, whereas they dig or grub for subterranean plant parts in adjacent coastal marshes. Grubbing involves considerably more muscular exertion than does grazing. Thus, we hypothesized that rates of bone formation and growth would be lower for juveniles wintering in rice-prairies than those in coastal marshes, resulting in smaller bill and skull features at adulthood. First, we tested this exertion hypothesis by measuring bills, skulls, and associated musculature from arrival to departure (November-February) in both habitats in southwest Louisiana, using both banded birds and collected specimens. Second, we used the morphological data to test an alternative hypothesis, which states that smaller bill dimensions in rice-prairies evolved because of hybridization with Ross's geese (C. rossii). Under the exertion hypothesis, we predicted that bill and skull bones of juveniles would grow at different rates between habitats. However, we found that bill and skull bones of juveniles grew similarly between habitats, thus failing to support the exertion hypothesis. Morphometrics were more likely to differ by sex or change with sampling date than to differ by habitat. We predicted that significant, consistent skewness toward smaller birds could indicate hybridization with Ross's geese, but no skewness was observed in our morphological data, which fails to support the hybridization hypothesis. Further research is needed to clarify whether snow geese wintering in Louisiana represent a single polymorphic population that segregates into individually preferred habitats, which we believe at present to be more likely as an explanation than two ecologically and spatially distinct morphotypes.

Avian Influenza Ecology in North Atlantic Sea Ducks: Not All Ducks Are Created Equal.

Wild waterfowl are primary reservoirs of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However the role of sea ducks in the ecology of avian influenza, and how that role differs from freshwater ducks, has not been examined. We obtained and analyzed sera from North Atlantic sea ducks and determined the seroprevalence in those populations. We also tested swab samples from North Atlantic sea ducks for the presence of AIV. We found relatively high serological prevalence (61%) in these sea duck populations but low virus prevalence (0.3%). Using these data we estimated that an antibody half-life of 141 weeks (3.2 years) would be required to attain these prevalences. These findings are much different than what is known in freshwater waterfowl and have implications for surveillance efforts, AIV in marine environments, and the roles of sea ducks and other long-lived waterfowl in avian influenza ecology.

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment.

Do geese fully develop brood patches? A histological analysis of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross's geese (C. rossii).

Most birds develop brood patches before incubation; epidermis and dermis in the brood patch region thicken, and the dermal connective tissue becomes increasingly vascularized and infiltrated by leukocytes. However, current dogma states that waterfowl incubate without modifications of skin within the brood patch region. The incubation periods of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens; hereafter called snow geese) and Ross's geese (C. rossii) are 2-6 days shorter than those of other goose species; only females incubate. Thus, we hypothesized that such short incubation periods would require fully developed brood patches for sufficient heat transfer from incubating parents to eggs. We tested this hypothesis by analyzing the skin histology of abdominal regions of snow and Ross's geese collected at Karrak Lake, Nunavut, Canada. For female snow geese, we found that epidermis and dermis had thickened and vascularization of dermis was 14 times greater, on average, than that observed in males (n=5 pairs). Our results for Ross's geese (n=5 pairs) were more variable, wherein only one of five female Ross's geese fully developed a brood patch. Our results are consistent with three hypotheses about brood patch development and its relationship with different energetic cost-benefit relationships, resulting from differences in embryonic development and body size.