Plasma immune signatures can predict rejection-free survival in the first year after pediatric liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: After pediatric liver transplantation (pLT), children undergo life-long immunosuppression since reliable biomarkers for the assessment of rejection probability are scarce. In the multicentre (n=7) prospective clinical cohort "ChilSFree" study, we aimed to characterize longitudinal dynamics of soluble and cellular immune mediators during the first year after pLT and identify early biomarkers associated with outcome. METHODS: Using paired Luminex-based multiplex technique and flow cytometry, we characterized longitudinal dynamics of soluble immune mediators (SIM, n=50) and immune cells in the blood of 244 patients at 8 visits over one year: before, 7/14/21/28 days, 3/6/12 months after pLT. RESULTS: The unsupervised clustering of patients based on SIM profiles revealed 6 unique SIM signatures associated with clinical outcome. From 3 signatures linked to improved outcome, one was associated with one-year-long rejection-free survival and stable graft function and was characterized by low levels of pro-inflammatory (CXCL8/9/10/12, CCL7, SCGF-ß, sICAM-1), high levels of regenerative (SCF, TNF-ß), and pro-apoptotic (TRAIL) SIM (all, p<0.001, fold change >100). Of note, this SIM signature appeared two weeks after pLT and remained stable over the entire year, pointing towards its potential as a novel early biomarker for minimizing or weaning immunosuppression. In the blood of these patients, a higher frequency of CD56bright NK cells (p<0.01), a known hallmark also associated with operationally tolerant pLT patients, was detected. The concordance of the model for prediction of rejection based on identified SIM signatures was 0.715, and 0.795, in combination with living-related transplantation as co-variate, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SIM blood signatures may enable the non-invasive and early assessment of rejection risks in the first year after pLT, paving the way to improved therapeutic options.

Estimating the relative importance of epidemiological and behavioural parameters for epidemic mpox transmission: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Many European countries experienced outbreaks of mpox in 2022, and there was an mpox outbreak in 2023 in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There were many apparent differences between these outbreaks and previous outbreaks of mpox; the recent outbreaks were observed in men who have sex with men after sexual encounters at common events, whereas earlier outbreaks were observed in a wider population with no identifiable link to sexual contacts. These apparent differences meant that data from previous outbreaks could not reliably be used to parametrise infectious disease models during the 2022 and 2023 mpox outbreaks, and modelling efforts were hampered by uncertainty around key transmission and immunity parameters. METHODS: We developed a stochastic, discrete-time metapopulation model for mpox that allowed for sexual and non-sexual transmission and the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, specifically contact tracing and pre- and post-exposure vaccinations. We calibrated the model to case data from Berlin and used Sobol sensitivity analysis to identify parameters that mpox transmission is especially sensitive to. We also briefly analysed the sensitivity of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to various efficacy parameters. RESULTS: We found that variance in the transmission probabilities due to both sexual and non-sexual transmission had a large effect on mpox transmission in the model, as did the level of immunity to mpox conferred by a previous smallpox vaccination. Furthermore, variance in the number of pre-exposure vaccinations offered was the dominant contributor to variance in mpox dynamics in men who have sex with men. If pre-exposure vaccinations were not available, both the accuracy and timeliness of contact tracing had a large impact on mpox transmission in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are valuable for guiding epidemiological studies for parameter ascertainment and identifying key factors for success of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Effect of SARS-CoV-2 Incidence and Immunisation Rates on Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Incidence.

BACKGROUND: Recent case studies and media outlets have hypothesised an effect of SARS-CoV-2 infection and immunisation on the development or progression of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease or sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD). OBJECTIVES: This study aims to identify potential associations of SARS-CoV-2 infections and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation with sCJD incidence, disease duration, and age of onset. METHOD: We used data from a prospective sCJD surveillance study in Germany (2016-2022) and publicly available datasets of SARS-CoV-2 cases and vaccination numbers in Germany for the years 2020-2022. Associations of SARS-CoV-2 incidence and immunisation rates with sCJD incidence were assessed by comparing quarterly and annual cumulative sCJD incidences in the periods before (2016-2019) and during the pandemic (2020-2022). RESULTS: We could not identify any time-related effect of SARS-CoV-2 incidence or immunisation rate on the sCJD incidence. Moreover, we did not find any sCJD incidence alterations before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on a federal or state level. The overall sCJD incidence was within expected ranges in the years 2020-2022. There were no changes in age of onset and clinical disease duration in these years. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence supporting a short-term effect of the pandemic on sCJD incidence. However, considering the extended pre-clinical phase of sCJD, continued surveillance is needed to identify potential future incidence alterations.

Estimating fine age structure and time trends in human contact patterns from coarse contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model.

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), large-scale social contact surveys are now longitudinally measuring the fundamental changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we present a model-based Bayesian approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model. The model can also quantify time trends and adjust for reporting fatigue emerging in longitudinal surveys through the use of computationally efficient Hilbert Space Gaussian process priors. We illustrate estimation accuracy on simulated data as well as social contact data from Europe and Africa for which the exact age of contacts is reported, and then apply the model to social contact data with coarse information on the age of contacts that were collected in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic from April to June 2020 across five longitudinal survey waves. We estimate the fine age structure in social contacts during the early stages of the pandemic and demonstrate that social contact intensities rebounded in an age-structured, non-homogeneous manner. The Bayesian rate consistency model provides a model-based, non-parametric, computationally tractable approach for estimating the fine structure and longitudinal trends in social contacts and is applicable to contemporary survey data with coarsely reported age of contacts as long as the exact age of survey participants is reported.

Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project.

PURPOSE: Despite the need to generate valid and reliable estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe course of COVID-19 for the German population in summer 2022, there was a lack of systematically collected population-based data allowing for the assessment of the protection level in real time. METHODS: In the IMMUNEBRIDGE project, we harmonised data and biosamples for nine population-/hospital-based studies (total number of participants n = 33,637) to provide estimates for protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 between June and November 2022. Based on evidence synthesis, we formed a combined endpoint of protection levels based on the number of self-reported infections/vaccinations in combination with nucleocapsid/spike antibody responses ("confirmed exposures"). Four confirmed exposures represented the highest protection level, and no exposure represented the lowest. RESULTS: Most participants were seropositive against the spike antigen; 37% of the participants ≥ 79 years had less than four confirmed exposures (highest level of protection) and 5% less than three. In the subgroup of participants with comorbidities, 46-56% had less than four confirmed exposures. We found major heterogeneity across federal states, with 4-28% of participants having less than three confirmed exposures. CONCLUSION: Using serological analyses, literature synthesis and infection dynamics during the survey period, we observed moderate to high levels of protection against severe COVID-19, whereas the protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection was low across all age groups. We found relevant protection gaps in the oldest age group and amongst individuals with comorbidities, indicating a need for additional protective measures in these groups.

Effect of risk status for severe COVID-19 on individual contact behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020/2021-an analysis based on the German COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: One of the primary aims of contact restriction measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been to protect people at increased risk of severe disease from the virus. Knowledge about the uptake of contact restriction measures in this group is critical for public health decision-making. We analysed data from the German contact survey COVIMOD to assess differences in contact patterns based on risk status, and compared this to pre-pandemic data to establish whether there was a differential response to contact reduction measures. METHODS: We quantified differences in contact patterns according to risk status by fitting a generalised linear model accounting for within-participant clustering to contact data from 31 COVIMOD survey waves (April 2020-December 2021), and estimated the population-averaged ratio of mean contacts of persons with high risk for a severe COVID-19 outcome due to age or underlying health conditions, to those without. We then compared the results to pre-pandemic data from the contact surveys HaBIDS and POLYMOD. RESULTS: Averaged across all analysed waves, COVIMOD participants reported a mean of 3.21 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 3.14,3.28) daily contacts (truncated at 100), compared to 18.10 (95%CI 17.12,19.06) in POLYMOD and 28.27 (95%CI 26.49,30.15) in HaBIDS. After adjusting for confounders, COVIMOD participants aged 65 or above had 0.83 times (95%CI 0.79,0.87) the number of contacts as younger age groups. In POLYMOD, this ratio was 0.36 (95%CI 0.30,0.43). There was no clear difference in contact patterns due to increased risk from underlying health conditions in either HaBIDS or COVIMOD. We also found that persons in COVIMOD at high risk due to old age increased their non-household contacts less than those not at such risk after strict restriction measures were lifted. CONCLUSIONS: Over the course of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there was a general reduction in contact numbers in the German population and also a differential response to contact restriction measures based on risk status for severe COVID-19. This differential response needs to be taken into account for parametrisations of mathematical models in a pandemic setting.

Social contact patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 21 European countries - evidence from a two-year study.

BACKGROUND: Most countries have enacted some restrictions to reduce social contacts to slow down disease transmission during the COVID-19 pandemic. For nearly two years, individuals likely also adopted new behaviours to avoid pathogen exposure based on personal circumstances. We aimed to understand the way in which different factors affect social contacts - a critical step to improving future pandemic responses. METHODS: The analysis was based on repeated cross-sectional contact survey data collected in a standardized international study from 21 European countries between March 2020 and March 2022. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a clustered bootstrap by country and by settings (at home, at work, or in other settings). Where data were available, contact rates during the study period were compared with rates recorded prior to the pandemic. We fitted censored individual-level generalized additive mixed models to examine the effects of various factors on the number of social contacts. RESULTS: The survey recorded 463,336 observations from 96,456 participants. In all countries where comparison data were available, contact rates over the previous two years were substantially lower than those seen prior to the pandemic (approximately from over 10 to < 5), predominantly due to fewer contacts outside the home. Government restrictions imposed immediate effect on contacts, and these effects lingered after the restrictions were lifted. Across countries, the relationships between national policy, individual perceptions, or personal circumstances determining contacts varied. CONCLUSIONS: Our study, coordinated at the regional level, provides important insights into the understanding of the factors associated with social contacts to support future infectious disease outbreak responses.

Age-specific contribution of contacts to transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany.

Current estimates of pandemic SARS-CoV-2 spread in Germany using infectious disease models often do not use age-specific infection parameters and are not always based on age-specific contact matrices of the population. They also do usually not include setting- or pandemic phase-based information from epidemiological studies of reported cases and do not account for age-specific underdetection of reported cases. Here, we report likely pandemic spread using an age-structured model to understand the age- and setting-specific contribution of contacts to transmission during different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. We developed a deterministic SEIRS model using a pre-pandemic contact matrix. The model was optimized to fit age-specific SARS-CoV-2 incidences reported by the German National Public Health Institute (Robert Koch Institute), includes information on setting-specific reported cases in schools and integrates age- and pandemic period-specific parameters for underdetection of reported cases deduced from a large population-based seroprevalence studies. Taking age-specific underreporting into account, younger adults and teenagers were identified in the modeling study as relevant contributors to infections during the first three pandemic waves in Germany. For the fifth wave, the Delta to Omicron transition, only age-specific parametrization reproduces the observed relative and absolute increase in pediatric hospitalizations in Germany. Taking into account age-specific underdetection did not change considerably how much contacts in schools contributed to the total burden of infection in the population (up to 12% with open schools under hygiene measures in the third wave). Accounting for the pandemic phase and age-specific underreporting is important to correctly identify those groups of the population in which quarantine, testing, vaccination, and contact-reduction measures are likely to be most effective and efficient. Age-specific parametrization is also highly relevant to generate informative age-specific output for decision makers and resource planers.

Individual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany-an analysis based on the COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute. RESULTS: We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.

Discontinuation of biologic DMARDs in a real-world population of patients with rheumatoid arthritis in remission: outcome and risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: Data from randomized controlled trials have shown the feasibility of discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in patients with RA that have reached remission. Criteria for selecting patients that are likely to remain in remission are still incompletely defined. We aimed to identify predictors of successful discontinuation of bDMARD therapy in the Swiss Clinical Quality Management (SCQM) registry, a real-world cohort of RA patients. METHODS: RA patients in DAS28-ESR remission who stopped bDMARD/tsDMARD treatment were included. Loss of remission was defined as a DAS28-ESR > 2.6 or restart of a bDMARD/tsDMARD. Time to loss of remission was the main outcome. Kaplan-Meier methods were applied and Cox regression was used for multivariable analyses adjusting for confounding factors. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation. RESULTS: A total of 318 patients in a bDMARD/tsDMARD-free remission were followed between 1997 and 2017. In total, 241 patients (76%) lost remission after a median time of 0.9 years (95% CI: 0.7, 1.0). The time to loss of remission was shorter in women, in patients with a longer disease duration >4yrs and in patients who did not meet clinical disease activity index (CDAI) remission criteria at baseline. Remission was longer in patients with csDMARD therapy during b/tsDMARD free remission [hazard ratio (HR) 0.8, P =0.05, 95% CI: 0.6, 1.0]. CONCLUSION: In a real-world patient population, the majority of patients who discontinued b/tsDMARD treatment lost remission within <1 year. Our study confirms that fulfilment of more rigorous remission criteria and csDMARD treatment increases the chance of maintaining b/tsDMARD-free remission.

Negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR or rapid antigen test result and the subsequent risk of being infectious: a mathematical simulation study.

BACKGROUND: A considerable proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs from asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic cases. Therefore, different polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- or rapid antigen test (RAT)-based approaches are being discussed and applied to identify infectious individuals that would have otherwise gone undetected. In this article, we provide a framework to estimate the time-dependent risk of being infectious after a negative SARS-CoV-2 test, and we simulate the number of expected infectious individuals over time in populations who initially tested negative. METHODS: A Monte Carlo approach is used to simulate asymptomatic infections over a 10-days period in populations of 1000 individuals following a negative SARS-CoV-2 test. Parameters representing the application of PCR tests or RATs are utilized, and SARS-CoV-2 cumulative 7-day incidences between 25 and 200 per 100,000 people are considered. Simulation results are compared to case numbers predicted via a mathematical equation. RESULTS: The simulations showed a continuous increase in infectious individuals over time in populations of individuals who initially tested SARS-CoV-2 negative. The interplay between false negative rates of PCR tests or RATs, and the time that has passed since testing determines the number of infectious individuals. The simulated and the mathematically predicted number of infectious individuals were comparable. However, Monte Carlo simulations highlight that, due to random variation, theoretically observed infectious individuals can considerably exceed predicted case numbers even shortly after a test was conducted. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the number of infectious individuals in a screened group of asymptomatic people can be effectively reduced, and this effect can be described mathematically. However, the false negative rate of a test, the time since the negative test and the underlying SARS-CoV-2 incidence are critical parameters in determining the observed subsequent number of cases in tested population groups.

Racial differences in systemic sclerosis disease presentation: a European Scleroderma Trials and Research group study.

OBJECTIVES: Racial factors play a significant role in SSc. We evaluated differences in SSc presentations between white patients (WP), Asian patients (AP) and black patients (BP) and analysed the effects of geographical locations. METHODS: SSc characteristics of patients from the EUSTAR cohort were cross-sectionally compared across racial groups using survival and multiple logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: The study included 9162 WP, 341 AP and 181 BP. AP developed the first non-RP feature faster than WP but slower than BP. AP were less frequently anti-centromere (ACA; odds ratio (OR) = 0.4, P < 0.001) and more frequently anti-topoisomerase-I autoantibodies (ATA) positive (OR = 1.2, P = 0.068), while BP were less likely to be ACA and ATA positive than were WP [OR(ACA) = 0.3, P < 0.001; OR(ATA) = 0.5, P = 0.020]. AP had less often (OR = 0.7, P = 0.06) and BP more often (OR = 2.7, P < 0.001) diffuse skin involvement than had WP. AP and BP were more likely to have pulmonary hypertension [OR(AP) = 2.6, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.7, P = 0.03 vs WP] and a reduced forced vital capacity [OR(AP) = 2.5, P < 0.001; OR(BP) = 2.4, P < 0.004] than were WP. AP more often had an impaired diffusing capacity of the lung than had BP and WP [OR(AP vs BP) = 1.9, P = 0.038; OR(AP vs WP) = 2.4, P < 0.001]. After RP onset, AP and BP had a higher hazard to die than had WP [hazard ratio (HR) (AP) = 1.6, P = 0.011; HR(BP) = 2.1, P < 0.001]. CONCLUSION: Compared with WP, and mostly independent of geographical location, AP have a faster and earlier disease onset with high prevalences of ATA, pulmonary hypertension and forced vital capacity impairment and higher mortality. BP had the fastest disease onset, a high prevalence of diffuse skin involvement and nominally the highest mortality.

Vasodilators and low-dose acetylsalicylic acid are associated with a lower incidence of distinct primary myocardial disease manifestations in systemic sclerosis: results of the DeSScipher inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the influence of vasodilator drugs on the occurrence of features depending on myocardial ischaemia/fibrosis (ventricular arrhythmias, Q waves, cardiac blocks, pacemaker implantation, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <55%, and/or congestive heart failure and sudden cardiac death) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: 601 patients with SSc were enrolled from 1 December 2012 to 30 November 2015 and had a second visit 0.5-4 years apart. 153 received no vasodilators; 448 received vasodilator therapy (ie, calcium channel blockers and/or ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers or combinations of them), 89 of them being also treated with either endothelin receptor antagonists or PDE5 inhibitors or prostanoids. Associations between the occurrence of myocardial disease manifestations and any demographic, disease and therapeutic aspect were investigated by Cox regression analysis. A Cox frailty survival model with centre of enrolment as random effect was performed. RESULTS: During 914 follow-up patient-years, 12 ventricular arrhythmias, 5 Q waves, 40 cardiac blocks, 6 pacemaker implantations and 19 reduced LVEF and/or congestive heart failure (CHF) occurred. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, vasodilator therapy was associated with a lower incidence of ventricular arrhythmias (p=0.03); low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) with a lower incidence of cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.02); active disease with a higher incidence of LVEF <55% and/or CHF and cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present study might suggest a preventative effect on the occurrence of distinct myocardial manifestations by vasodilator therapy and low-dose ASA.

Functional disability and its predictors in systemic sclerosis: a study from the DeSScipher project within the EUSTAR group.

Objectives: The multisystem manifestations of SSc can greatly impact patients' quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with disability in SSc. Methods: SSc patients from the prospective DeSScipher cohort who had completed the scleroderma health assessment questionnaire (SHAQ), a disability score that combines the health assessment questionnaire and five visual analogue scales, were included in this analysis. The effect of factors possibly associated with disability was analysed with multiple linear regressions. Results: The mean SHAQ and HAQ scores of the 944 patients included were 0.87 (s.d. = 0.66) and 0.92 (s.d. = 0.78); 59% of the patients were in the mild to moderate difficulty SHAQ category (0 ⩽ SHAQ < 1), 34% in the moderate to severe disability category (1 ⩽ SHAQ < 2) and 7% in the severe to very severe disability category (2 ⩽ SHAQ ⩽ 3). The means of the visual analogue scales scores were in order of magnitude: overall disease severity (37 mm), RP (31 mm), pulmonary symptoms (24 mm), gastrointestinal symptoms (20 mm) and digital ulcers (19 mm). In multiple regression, the main factors associated with high SHAQ scores were the presence of dyspnoea [modified New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV (regression coefficient B = 0.62), modified NYHA class III (B = 0.53) and modified NYHA class II (B = 0.21; all vs modified NYHA class I)], FM (B = 0.37), muscle weakness (B = 0.27), digital ulcers (B = 0.20) and gastrointestinal symptoms (oesophageal symptoms, B = 0.16; stomach symptoms, B = 0.15; intestinal symptoms, B = 0.15). Conclusion: SSc patients perceive dyspnoea, pain, digital ulcers, muscle weakness and gastrointestinal symptoms as the main factors driving their level of disability, unlike physicians who emphasize objective measures of disability.

The European Scleroderma Trials and Research group (EUSTAR) task force for the development of revised activity criteria for systemic sclerosis: derivation and validation of a preliminarily revised EUSTAR activity index.

BACKGROUND: Validity of European Scleroderma Study Group (EScSG) activity indexes currently used to assess disease activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) has been criticised. METHODS: Three investigators assigned an activity score on a 0-10 scale for 97 clinical charts. The median score served as gold standard. Two other investigators labelled the disease as inactive/moderately active or active/very active. Univariate-multivariate linear regression analyses were used to define variables predicting the 'gold standard', their weight and derive an activity index. The cut-off point of the index best separating active/very active from inactive/moderately active disease was identified by a receiver-operating curve analysis. The index was validated on a second set of 60 charts assessed by three different investigators on a 0-10 scale and defined as inactive/moderately active or active/very active by other two investigators. One hundred and twenty-three were investigated for changes over time in the index and their relationships with those in the summed Medsger severity score (MSS). RESULTS: A weighted 10-point activity index was identified and validated: Δ-skin=1.5 (Δ=patient assessed worsening during the previous month), modified Rodnan skin score (mRss) >18=1.5, digital ulcers=1.5, tendon friction rubs=2.25, C-reactive protein >1 mg/dL=2.25 and diffusing capacity of the lung for CO (DLCO) % predicted <70%=1.0. A cut-off ≥2.5 was found to identify patients with active disease. Changes in the index paralleled those of MSS (p=0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: A preliminarily revised SSc activity index has been developed and validated, providing a valuable tool for clinical practice and observational studies.

Disease activity dynamics in rheumatoid arthritis: patients' self-assessment of disease activity via WebApp.

Objectives: The aim was to evaluate patient self-assessment of RA disease activity in terms of Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data (RAPID) scores via a Web-based smartphone application (WebApp). Methods: In this prospective, multicentre study, adult RA patients were examined by a rheumatologist at baseline and after 3 months. Patients were asked to complete WebApp questionnaires weekly. The time course of patient-assessed RAPID3/4 scores and their correlations with rheumatologist-assessed DAS28, as well as Clinical and Simplified Disease Activity Indices (CDAI/SDAI), were evaluated. Results: Eighty patients were included in the analysis (median RA duration, 4.5 years; age, 57 years; 59% female). At baseline, there was a moderate to strong correlation between RAPID3 and DAS28 (r = 0.63), CDAI (r = 0.65) and SDAI (r = 0.61) scores. Similar or stronger correlations were seen at the 3-month follow-up visit (DAS28 r = 0.66, CDAI r = 0.71 and SDAI r = 0.61). Similar correlations were seen between RAPID4 and rheumatologist assessments. Correlations were not influenced by demographics or RA treatment. In the 3-month period, the RAPID3 score changed into a higher severity category than the category at baseline at least once in 47% of patients. When DAS28 scores were predicted from the RAPID3, 11% of patients had an increase of > 1 DAS28 unit during the 3-month observation period. Conclusion: Web-based patient assessments were strongly correlated with rheumatologist assessments of RA activity and showed considerable variation during follow-up. This provides a rationale for further exploration of their use as cost-effective tools to monitor RA activity between outpatient visits and to optimize tight control strategies.

Safety of vaccinations in patients with cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes: a prospective registry based study.

Objectives: Pneumococcal, tetanus and influenza vaccinations are recommended for patients with cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes (CAPS) when treated with immunosuppressive medication. The aim of this publication is to report the safety of pneumococcal and other vaccinations in CAPS patients. Methods: All CAPS patients followed in the ß-CONFIDENT (Clinical Outcomes and Safety Registry study of Ilaris patients) registry were analysed if they had received a vaccination. The ß-CONFIDENT registry is a global, long-term, prospective, observational registry, capturing and monitoring patients treated with canakinumab. Results: Sixty-eight CAPS patients had received a total of 159 vaccine injections, 107 injections against influenza, 19 pneumococcal vaccinations, 12 against tetanus/diphtheria antigens and 21 other vaccinations. Fourteen per cent of injections had elicited at least one vaccine reaction. All five vaccine-related serious adverse events were associated with pneumococcal vaccination. Vaccine reactions were observed in 70% of pneumococcal vaccinations, compared with 7% in influenza and 17% in tetanus/diphtheria vaccinations. The odds ratios to react to the pneumococcal vaccines compared with influenza and tetanus/diphtheria vaccines were 31.0 (95% CI: 8, 119) and 10.8 (95% CI: 2, 74). Vaccine reactions after pneumococcal vaccinations were more severe and lasted significantly longer (up to 3 weeks) compared with other vaccinations. In two patients, pneumococcal vaccination also elicited symptoms consistent with systemic inflammation due to CAPS reactivation. Conclusion: Pneumococcal vaccines, unlike other vaccines, frequently trigger severe local and systemic inflammation in CAPS patients. Clinicians must balance potential benefits of pneumococcal immunization against safety concerns. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine might be favourable over the polysaccharide vaccine in CAPS patients.

Single-Dose Hepatitis A Immunization: 7.5-Year Observational Pilot Study in Nicaraguan Children to Assess Protective Effectiveness and Humoral Immune Memory Response.

BACKGROUND: Universal 2-dose hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccination of toddlers effectively controls hepatitis A. High vaccine costs, however, impede implementation in endemic countries. To test single-dose vaccination as a possible alternative, we initiated an observational, longitudinal study in Nicaragua, to assess protective effectiveness and-through challenge vaccination-humoral immune memory response. METHODS: After a 2003 serosurvey, 130 originally seronegative children received one dose of virosomal HAV vaccine in 2005, followed by yearly serological and clinical assessments until 2012. After 7.5 years, a vaccine booster was administered. Concurrent antibody screening of patients presenting with hepatitis symptoms documented persistent HAV circulation in the communities studied. RESULTS: Between serosurvey and vaccination, 25 children contracted hepatitis A subclinically (>8000 mIU/mL anti-HAV). In the remaining 105 children, immunization resulted in anti-HAV levels of 17-572 mIU/mL. Based on the ≥15% annual infection risk, an estimated 60% of children were exposed to HAV encounters during follow-up. No child presented with hepatitis symptoms. Serological breakthrough infection (7106 mIU/mL) was documented in 1 child, representing an estimated protective effectiveness of 98.3% (95% confidence interval, 87.9-99.8). Boosting elicited an average 29.7-fold increase of anti-HAV levels. CONCLUSIONS: In children living in hyperendemic settings, a single dose of virosomal HAV vaccine is sufficient to activate immune memory and may provide long-term protection.

Incidence and predictors of cutaneous manifestations during the early course of systemic sclerosis: a 10-year longitudinal study from the EUSTAR database.

OBJECTIVES: To longitudinally map the onset and identify risk factors for skin sclerosis and digital ulcers (DUs) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) from an early time point after the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort. METHODS: 695 patients with SSc with a baseline visit within 1 year after RP onset were followed in the prospective multinational EUSTAR database. During the 10-year observation period, cumulative probabilities of cutaneous lesions were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors. RESULTS: The median modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) peaked 1 year after RP onset, and was 15 points. The 1-year probability to develop an mRSS ≥2 in at least one area of the arms and legs was 69% and 25%, respectively. Twenty-five per cent of patients developed diffuse cutaneous involvement in the first year after RP onset. This probability increased to 36% during the subsequent 2 years. Only 6% of patients developed diffuse cutaneous SSc thereafter. The probability to develop DUs increased to a maximum of 70% at the end of the 10-year observation. The main factors associated with diffuse cutaneous SSc were the presence of anti-RNA polymerase III autoantibodies, followed by antitopoisomerase autoantibodies and male sex. The main factor associated with incident DUs was the presence of antitopoisomerase autoantibodies. CONCLUSION: Early after RP onset, cutaneous manifestations exhibit rapid kinetics in SSc. This should be accounted for in clinical trials aiming to prevent skin worsening.

Rituximab done: what's next in rheumatoid arthritis? A European observational longitudinal study assessing the effectiveness of biologics after rituximab treatment in rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effectiveness of biologics after rituximab (RTX) treatment in RA. METHODS: The effectiveness of TNF-α inhibitors (TNFi), abatacept (ABA) or tocilizumab (TCZ) was examined in patients previously treated with RTX using clinical data collected in the Collaborative Registries for the Evaluation of Rituximab in RA Collaborative registry. Patients had stopped RTX 6 months or less prior to the new biologic and had a baseline visit within 21 days of starting the new biologic. RESULTS: Two hundred and sixty-five patients were analysed after 6 months of treatment. Patients on TCZ (n = 86) had a greater decline of DAS28-ESR and clinical disease activity index than patients on TNFi (n = 89) or ABA (n = 90). This effect was also seen after adjusting for baseline prednisone use and the number of previous biologics. The mean DAS28-ESR scores in patients on TCZ were 1.0 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.7) and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.5) points lower than in patients on TNFi or ABA, respectively. In patients on TCZ, the clinical disease activity index was 9.4 (95% CI: 1.7, 16.1) and 8.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 15.3) points lower than on TNFi and ABA, respectively. Patients on TCZ more frequently had good EULAR responses than patients on TNFi or ABA (66 vs 31 vs 14%, P < 0.001). The HAQ disability index improved in all treatment groups (P < 0.001), but did not differ between biologics, as did drug retention rates. The reasons for discontinuation of RTX and the number of previous biologics had no influence on outcomes. CONCLUSION: In this observational cohort of patients who discontinued RTX, TCZ provided a better control of RA than ABA or TNFi.