Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Implementing landscape genetics in molecular epidemiology to determine drivers of vector-borne disease: A malaria case study.

This study employs landscape genetics to investigate the environmental drivers of a deadly vector-borne disease, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, in a more spatially comprehensive manner than any previous work. With 1804 samples from 44 sites collected in western Kenya in 2012 and 2013, we performed resistance surface analysis to show that Lake Victoria acts as a barrier to transmission between areas north and south of the Winam Gulf. In addition, Mantel correlograms clearly showed significant correlations between genetic and geographic distance over short distances (less than 70 km). In both cases, we used an identity-by-state measure of relatedness tailored to find highly related individual parasites in order to focus on recent gene flow that is more relevant to disease transmission. To supplement these results, we performed conventional population genetics analyses, including Bayesian clustering methods and spatial ordination techniques. These analyses revealed some differentiation on the basis of geography and elevation and a cluster of genetic similarity in the lowlands north of the Winam Gulf of Lake Victoria. Taken as a whole, these results indicate low overall genetic differentiation in the Lake Victoria region, but with some separation of parasite populations north and south of the Winam Gulf that is explained by the presence of the lake as a geographic barrier to gene flow. We recommend similar landscape genetics analyses in future molecular epidemiology studies of vector-borne diseases to extend and contextualize the results of traditional population genetics.

Twinkle twinkle brittle star: the draft genome of Ophioderma brevispinum (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea) as a resource for regeneration research.

BACKGROUND: Echinoderms are established models in experimental and developmental biology, however genomic resources are still lacking for many species. Here, we present the draft genome of Ophioderma brevispinum, an emerging model organism in the field of regenerative biology. This new genomic resource provides a reference for experimental studies of regenerative mechanisms. RESULTS: We report a de novo nuclear genome assembly for the brittle star O. brevispinum and annotation facilitated by the transcriptome assembly. The final assembly is 2.68 Gb in length and contains 146,703 predicted protein-coding gene models. We also report a mitochondrial genome for this species, which is 15,831 bp in length, and contains 13 protein-coding, 22 tRNAs, and 2 rRNAs genes, respectively. In addition, 29 genes of the Notch signaling pathway are identified to illustrate the practical utility of the assembly for studies of regeneration. CONCLUSIONS: The sequenced and annotated genome of O. brevispinum presented here provides the first such resource for an ophiuroid model species. Considering the remarkable regenerative capacity of this species, this genome will be an essential resource in future research efforts on molecular mechanisms regulating regeneration.

A subterminal growth zone at arm tip likely underlies life-long indeterminate growth in brittle stars.

BACKGROUND: Echinoderms are a phylum of marine invertebrates with close phylogenetic relationships to chordates. Many members of the phylum Echinodermata are capable of extensive post-traumatic regeneration and life-long indeterminate growth. Different from regeneration, the life-long elongation of the main body axis in adult echinoderms has received little attention. The anatomical location and the nature of the dividing progenitor cells contributing to adults' growth is unknown. RESULTS: We show that the proliferating cells that drive the life-long growth of adult brittle star arms are mostly localized to the subterminal (second from the tip) arm segment. Each of the major anatomical structures contains dividing progenitors. These structures include: the radial nerve, water-vascular canal, and arm coelomic wall. Some of those proliferating progenitor cells are capable of multiple rounds of cell division. Within the nervous system, the progenitor cells were identified as a subset of radial glial cells that do not express Brn1/2/4, a transcription factor with a conserved role in the neuronal fate specification. In addition to characterizing the growth zone and the nature of the precursor cells, we provide a description of the microanatomy of the four distal-most arm segments contrasting the distal with the proximal segments, which are more mature. CONCLUSIONS: The growth of the adult brittle star arms occurs via proliferation of progenitor cells in the distal segments, which are most abundant in the second segment from the tip. At least some of the progenitors are capable of multiple rounds of cell division. Within the nervous system the dividing cells were identified as Brn1/2/4-negative radial glial cells.

Plasmodium vivax From Duffy-Negative and Duffy-Positive Individuals Share Similar Gene Pools in East Africa.

Plasmodium vivax malaria was thought to be rare in Africa, but an increasing number of P. vivax cases reported across Africa and in Duffy-negative individuals challenges this dogma. The genetic characteristics of P. vivax in Duffy-negative infections, the transmission of P. vivax in East Africa, and the impact of environments on transmission remain largely unknown. This study examined genetic and transmission features of P. vivax from 107 Duffy-negative and 305 Duffy-positive individuals in Ethiopia and Sudan. No clear genetic differentiation was found in P. vivax between the 2 Duffy groups, indicating between-host transmission. P. vivax from Ethiopia and Sudan showed similar genetic clusters, except samples from Khartoum, possibly due to distance and road density that inhibited parasite gene flow. This study is the first to show that P. vivax can transmit to and from Duffy-negative individuals and provides critical insights into the spread of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa.

A parallelized strategy for epistasis analysis based on Empirical Bayesian Elastic Net models.

MOTIVATION: Epistasis reflects the distortion on a particular trait or phenotype resulting from the combinatorial effect of two or more genes or genetic variants. Epistasis is an important genetic foundation underlying quantitative traits in many organisms as well as in complex human diseases. However, there are two major barriers in identifying epistasis using large genomic datasets. One is that epistasis analysis will induce over-fitting of an over-saturated model with the high-dimensionality of a genomic dataset. Therefore, the problem of identifying epistasis demands efficient statistical methods. The second barrier comes from the intensive computing time for epistasis analysis, even when the appropriate model and data are specified. RESULTS: In this study, we combine statistical techniques and computational techniques to scale up epistasis analysis using Empirical Bayesian Elastic Net (EBEN) models. Specifically, we first apply a matrix manipulation strategy for pre-computing the correlation matrix and pre-filter to narrow down the search space for epistasis analysis. We then develop a parallelized approach to further accelerate the modeling process. Our experiments on synthetic and empirical genomic data demonstrate that our parallelized methods offer tens of fold speed up in comparison with the classical EBEN method which runs in a sequential manner. We applied our parallelized approach to a yeast dataset, and we were able to identify both main and epistatic effects of genetic variants associated with traits such as fitness. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The software is available at github.com/shilab/parEBEN.

StrainHub: a phylogenetic tool to construct pathogen transmission networks.

SUMMARY: In exploring the epidemiology of infectious diseases, networks have been used to reconstruct contacts among individuals and/or populations. Summarizing networks using pathogen metadata (e.g. host species and place of isolation) and a phylogenetic tree is a nascent, alternative approach. In this paper, we introduce a tool for reconstructing transmission networks in arbitrary space from phylogenetic information and metadata. Our goals are to provide a means of deriving new insights and infection control strategies based on the dynamics of the pathogen lineages derived from networks and centrality metrics. We created a web-based application, called StrainHub, in which a user can input a phylogenetic tree based on genetic or other data along with characters derived from metadata using their preferred tree search method. StrainHub generates a transmission network based on character state changes in metadata, such as place or source of isolation, mapped on the phylogenetic tree. The user has the option to calculate centrality metrics on the nodes including betweenness, closeness, degree and a new metric, the source/hub ratio. The outputs include the network with values for metrics on its nodes and the tree with characters reconstructed. All of these results can be exported for further analysis. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: strainhub.io and https://github.com/abschneider/StrainHub.

Genetic variation of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 in Assosa zone, Ethiopia: its impact on the performance of malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) are commonly used for the diagnosis of malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. However, false negative results of RDT caused by genetic variation of P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 genes (pfhrp2/3) threaten existing malaria case management and control efforts. The main objective of this study was to investigate the genetic variations of the pfhrp2/3 genes. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from malaria symptomatic individuals in 2018 in Assosa zone, Ethiopia. Finger-prick blood samples were collected for RDT and microscopic examination of thick and thin blood films. Dried blood spots (DBS) were used for genomic parasite DNA extraction and molecular detection. Amplification of parasite DNA was made by quantitative PCR. DNA amplicons of pfhrp2/3 were purified and sequenced. RESULTS: The PfHRP2 amino acid repeat type isolates were less conserved compared to the PfHRP3 repeat type. Eleven and eight previously characterized PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 amino acid repeat types were identified, respectively. Type 1, 4 and 7 repeats were shared by PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 proteins. Type 2 repeats were found only in PfHRP2, while types 16 and 17 were found only in PfHRP3 with a high frequency in all isolates. 18 novel repeat types were found in PfHRP2 and 13 novel repeat types were found in PfHRP3 in single or multiple copies per isolate. The positivity rate for PfHRP2 RDT was high, 82.9% in PfHRP2 and 84.3% in PfHRP3 sequence isolates at parasitaemia levels > 250 parasites/µl. Using the Baker model, 100% of the isolates in group A (If product of types 2 × type 7 repeats ≥ 100) and 73.7% of the isolates in group B (If product of types 2 × type 7 repeats 50-99) were predicted to be detected by PfHRP2 RDT at parasitaemia level > 250 parasite/µl. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study indicate the presence of different PfHRP2 and PfHRP3 amino acid repeat including novel repeats in P. falciparum from Ethiopia. These results indicate that there is a need to closely monitor the performance of PfHRP2 RDT associated with the genetic variation of the pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene in P. falciparum isolates at the country-wide level.

Detection of high prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2/3 gene deletions in Assosa zone, Ethiopia: implication for malaria diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) targeting histidine rich protein 2(HRP2) are widely used for diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum infections. Besides PfHRP2, the PfHRP3 antigen contributes to the detection of P. falciparum infections in PfHRP2 RDTs. However, the performance HRP2-based RDT is affected by pfhrp2/3 gene deletions resulting in false-negative test results. The objective of this study was to determine the presence and prevalence of pfhrp2/3 gene deletions including the respective flanking regions among symptomatic patients in Assosa zone, Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: A health-facility based cross-sectional study was conducted in febrile patients seeking a malaria diagnosis in 2018. Blood samples were collected by finger-prick for microscopic examination of blood smears, malaria RDT, and molecular analysis using dried blood spots (DBS) prepared on Whatman filter paper. A total of 218 P. falciparum positive samples confirmed by quantitative PCR were included for molecular assay of pfhrp2/3 target gene. RESULTS: Of 218 P. falciparum positive samples, exon 2 deletions were observed in 17.9% of pfhrp2 gene and in 9.2% of pfhrp3 gene. A high proportion of deletions in short segments of pfhrp2 exon1-2 (50%) was also detected while the deletions of the pfhrp3 exon1-2 gene were 4.1%. The deletions were extended to the downstream and upstream of the flanking regions in pfhrp2/3 gene (above 30%). Of eighty-six PfHRP2 RDT negative samples, thirty-six lacked pfhrp2 exon 2. Five PfHRP2 RDT negative samples had double deletions in pfhrp2 exon 2 and pfhrp3 exon2. Of these double deletions, only two of the samples with a parasite density above 2000 parasite/µl were positive by the microscopy. Three samples with intact pfhrp3 exon2 in the pfhrp2 exon2 deleted parasite isolates were found to be positive by PfHRP2 RDT and microscopy with a parasite density above 10,000/µl. CONCLUSION: This study confirms the presence of deletions of pfhrp2/3 gene including the flanking regions. Pfhrp2/3 gene deletions results in false-negative results undoubtedly affect the current malaria control and elimination effort in the country. However, further countrywide investigations are required to determine the magnitude of pfhrp2/3 gene deletions and its consequences on routine malaria diagnosis.

Fundamental evolution of all Orthocoronavirinae including three deadly lineages descendent from Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in humans in 2002. Despite reports showing Chiroptera as the original animal reservoir of SARS-CoV, many argue that Carnivora-hosted viruses are the most likely origin. The emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 also involves Chiroptera-hosted lineages. However, factors such as the lack of comprehensive phylogenies hamper our understanding of host shifts once MERS-CoV emerged in humans and Artiodactyla. Since 2019, the origin of SARS-CoV-2, causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), added to this episodic history of zoonotic transmission events. Here we introduce a phylogenetic analysis of 2006 unique and complete genomes of different lineages of Orthocoronavirinae. We used gene annotations to align orthologous sequences for total evidence analysis under the parsimony optimality criterion. Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus were set as outgroups to understand spillovers of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus among ten orders of animals. We corroborated that Chiroptera-hosted viruses are the sister group of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-related viruses. Other zoonotic events were qualified and quantified to provide a comprehensive picture of the risk of coronavirus emergence among humans. Finally, we used a 250 SARS-CoV-2 genomes dataset to elucidate the phylogenetic relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses.

A Novel Machine Learning Framework for Comparison of Viral COVID-19-Related Sina Weibo and Twitter Posts: Workflow Development and Content Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Social media plays a critical role in health communications, especially during global health emergencies such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is a lack of a universal analytical framework to extract, quantify, and compare content features in public discourse of emerging health issues on different social media platforms across a broad sociocultural spectrum. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to develop a novel and universal content feature extraction and analytical framework and contrast how content features differ with sociocultural background in discussions of the emerging COVID-19 global health crisis on major social media platforms. METHODS: We sampled the 1000 most shared viral Twitter and Sina Weibo posts regarding COVID-19, developed a comprehensive coding scheme to identify 77 potential features across six major categories (eg, clinical and epidemiological, countermeasures, politics and policy, responses), quantified feature values (0 or 1, indicating whether or not the content feature is mentioned in the post) in each viral post across social media platforms, and performed subsequent comparative analyses. Machine learning dimension reduction and clustering analysis were then applied to harness the power of social media data and provide more unbiased characterization of web-based health communications. RESULTS: There were substantially different distributions, prevalence, and associations of content features in public discourse about the COVID-19 pandemic on the two social media platforms. Weibo users were more likely to focus on the disease itself and health aspects, while Twitter users engaged more about policy, politics, and other societal issues. CONCLUSIONS: We extracted a rich set of content features from social media data to accurately characterize public discourse related to COVID-19 in different sociocultural backgrounds. In addition, this universal framework can be adopted to analyze social media discussions of other emerging health issues beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first complete mitochondrial genome of the sand dollar Sinaechinocyamus mai (Echinoidea: Clypeasteroida).

Morphologic and molecular data often lead to different hypotheses of phylogenetic relationships. Such incongruence has been found in the echinoderm class Echinoidea. In particular, the phylogenetic status of the order Clypeasteroida is not well resolved. Complete mitochondrial genomes are currently available for 29 echinoid species, but no clypeasteroid had been sequenced to date. DNA extracted from a single live individual of Sinaechinocyamus mai was sequenced with 10× Genomics technology. This first complete mitochondrial genome (mitogenome) for the order Clypeasteroida is 15,756 base pairs in length. Phylogenomic analysis based on 34 ingroup taxa belonging to nine orders of the class Echinoidea show congruence between our new genetic inference and published trees based on morphologic characters, but also includes some intriguing differences that imply the need for additional investigation.

Insecticide resistance in Anopheles stephensi in Somali Region, eastern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The movement of malaria vectors into new areas is a growing concern in the efforts to control malaria. The recent report of Anopheles stephensi in eastern Ethiopia has raised the necessity to understand the insecticide resistance status of the vector in the region to better inform vector-based interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate insecticide resistance in An. stephensi in eastern Ethiopia using two approaches: (1) World Health Organization (WHO) bioassay tests in An. stephensi; and (2) genetic analysis of insecticide resistance genes in An. stephensi in eastern Ethiopia. METHODS: Mosquito larvae and pupae were collected from Kebri Dehar. Insecticide susceptibility of An. stephensi was tested with malathion 5%, bendiocarb 0.1%, propoxur 0.1%, deltamethrin 0.05%, permethrin 0.75%, pirimiphos-methyl 0.25% and DDT 4%, according to WHO standard protocols. In this study, the knockdown resistance locus (kdr) in the voltage gated sodium channel (vgsc) and ace1R locus in the acetylcholinesterase gene (ace-1) were analysed in An. stephensi. RESULTS: All An. stephensi samples were resistant to carbamates, with mortality rates of 23% and 21% for bendiocarb and propoxur, respectively. Adult An. stephensi was also resistant to pyrethroid insecticides with mortality rates 67% for deltamethrin and 53% for permethrin. Resistance to DDT and malathion was detected in An. stephensi with mortality rates of 32% as well as An. stephensi was resistance to pirimiphos-methyl with mortality rates 14%. Analysis of the insecticide resistance loci revealed the absence of kdr L1014F and L1014S mutations and the ace1R G119S mutation. CONCLUSION: Overall, these findings support that An. stephensi is resistant to several classes of insecticides, most notably pyrethroids. However, the absence of the kdr L1014 gene may suggest non-target site resistance mechanisms. Continuous insecticide resistance monitoring should be carried out in the region to confirm the documented resistance and exploring mechanisms conferring resistance in An. stephensi in Ethiopia.

Evolution of endemic and sylvatic lineages of dengue virus.

Recent disease outbreaks have raised awareness of tropical pathogens, especially mosquito-borne viruses. Dengue virus (DENV) is a widely studied mammalian pathogen transmitted by various species of mosquito in the genus Aedes, especially Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The prevailing view of the research community is that endemic viral lineages that cause epidemics of DENV in humans have emerged over time from sylvatic viral lineages, which persist in wild, non-human primates. These notions have been examined by researchers through phylogenetic analyses of the envelope gene (E) from the four serotypes of DENV (serotypes DENV-1 to DENV-4). In these previous reports, researchers used visual inspection of a phylogeny in order to assert that sylvatic lineages lead to endemic clades. In making this assertion, these researchers also reasserted the model of periodic sylvatic to endemic disease outbreaks. Since that study, there has been a significant increase in data both in terms of metadata (e.g., place and host of isolation) and genetic sequences of DENV. Here, we re-examine the model of sylvatic to endemic shifts in viral lineages through a phylogenetic tree search and character evolution study of metadata on the tree. We built a dataset of nucleotide sequences for 188 isolates of DENV that have metadata on sylvatic or endemic sampling along with three orthologous sequences from West Nile virus as the outgroup for the phylogenetic analysis. In contrast to previous research, we find that there are several shifts from endemic to sylvatic lineages as well as sylvatic to endemic lineages, indicating a much more dynamic model of evolution. We propose that a model that allows oscillation between sylvatic and endemic hosts better captures the dynamics of DENV transmission.

Genetic capitalism and stabilizing selection of antimicrobial resistance genotypes in Escherichia coli.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in pathogenic strains of bacteria, such as Escherichia coli (E. coli), adversely impacts personal and public health. In this study, we examine competing hypotheses for the evolution of AMR including (i) 'genetic capitalism' in which genotypes that confer antibiotic resistance are gained and not often lost in lineages, and (ii) 'stabilizing selection' in which genotypes that confer antibiotic resistance are gained and lost often. To test these hypotheses, we assembled a dataset that includes annotations for 409 AMR genotypes and a phylogenetic tree based on genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms from 29 255 isolates of E. coli collected over the past 134 years. We used phylogenetic methods to count the times each AMR genotype was gained and lost across the tree and used model-based clustering of the genotypes with respect to their gain and loss rates. We demonstrate that many genotypes cluster to support the hypothesis for genetic capitalism while a few genotypes cluster to support the hypothesis for stabilizing selection. Comparing the sets of genotypes that fall under each of the hypotheses, we found a statistically significant difference in the breakdown of resistance mechanisms through which the AMR genotypes function. The result that many AMR genotypes cluster under genetic capitalism reflects that strong positive selective forces, primarily induced by human industrialization of antibiotics, outweigh the potential fitness costs to the bacterial lineages for carrying the AMR genotypes. We expect genetic capitalism to further drive bacterial lineages to resist antibiotics. We find that antibiotics that function via replacement and efflux tend to behave under stabilizing selection and thus may be valuable in an antibiotic cycling strategy.

Sequence-based identification of Anopheles species in eastern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The recent finding of a typically non-African Anopheles species in eastern Ethiopia emphasizes the need for detailed species identification and characterization for effective malaria vector surveillance. Molecular approaches increase the accuracy and interoperability of vector surveillance data. To develop effective molecular assays for Anopheles identification, it is important to evaluate different genetic loci for the ability to characterize species and population level variation. Here the utility of the internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) and cytochrome oxidase I (COI) loci for detection of Anopheles species from understudied regions of eastern Ethiopia was investigated. METHODS: Adult mosquitoes were collected from the Harewe locality (east) and Meki (east central) Ethiopia. PCR and Sanger sequencing were performed for portions of the ITS2 and COI loci. Both NCBI's Basic Local Alignment Search tool (BLAST) and phylogenetic analysis using a maximum-likelihood approach were performed to identify species of Anopheles specimens. RESULTS: Two species from the east Ethiopian collection, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles pretoriensis were identified. Analyses of ITS2 locus resulted in delineation of both species. In contrast, analysis of COI locus could not be used to delineate An. arabiensis from other taxa in Anopheles gambiae complex, but could distinguish An. pretoriensis sequences from sister taxa. CONCLUSION: The lack of clarity from COI sequence analysis highlights potential challenges of species identification within species complexes. These results provide supporting data for the development of molecular assays for delineation of Anopheles in east Ethiopia.

Identification of a neuropeptide precursor protein that gives rise to a "cocktail" of peptides that bind Cu(II) and generate metal-linked dimers.

BACKGROUND: Neuropeptides with an Amino Terminal Cu(II), Ni(II) Binding (ATCUN) motif (H2N-xxH) bind Cu(II)/Ni(II) ions. Here we report the novel discovery of a neuropeptide precursor that gives rise to a "cocktail" of peptides that bind Cu(II)/Ni(II) and form ternary complexes--the L-type SALMFamide precursor in the starfish Asterias rubens. METHODS: Echinoderm transcriptome sequence data were analysed to identify transcripts encoding precursors of SALMFamide-type neuropeptides. The sequence of the L-type SALMFamide precursor in the starfish Asterias rubens was confirmed by cDNA sequencing and peptides derived from this precursor (e.g. AYHSALPF-NH2, GYHSGLPF-NH2 and LHSALPF-NH2) were synthesized. The ability of these peptides to bind metals was investigated using UV/Vis, NMR, circular dichroism and EPR spectroscopy. RESULTS: AYHSALPF-NH2 and GYHSGLPF-NH2 bind Cu(II) and Ni(II) and generate metal-linked dimers to form ternary complexes with LHSALPF-NH2. Investigation of the evolutionary history of the histidine residue that confers these properties revealed that it can be traced to the common ancestor of echinoderms, which is estimated to have lived ~500 million years ago. However, L-type precursors comprising multiple SALMFamides with the histidine residue forming an ATCUN motif appears to be a feature that has evolved uniquely in starfish (Asteroidea). GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE: The discovery of a SALMFamide-type neuropeptide precursor protein that gives rise to a "cocktail" of peptides that bind metal ions and generate metal-linked dimers provides a new insight on ATCUN motif-containing neuropeptides. This property of L-type SALMFamides in the Asteroidea may be associated with a role in regulation of the unusual extra-oral feeding behaviour of starfish.

The phylogeny of extant starfish (Asteroidea: Echinodermata) including Xyloplax, based on comparative transcriptomics.

Multi-locus phylogenetic studies of echinoderms based on Sanger and RNA-seq technologies and the fossil record have provided evidence for the Asterozoa-Echinozoa hypothesis. This hypothesis posits a sister relationship between asterozoan classes (Asteroidea and Ophiuroidea) and a similar relationship between echinozoan classes (Echinoidea and Holothuroidea). Despite this consensus around Asterozoa-Echinozoa, phylogenetic relationships within the class Asteroidea (sea stars or starfish) have been controversial for over a century. Open questions include relationships within asteroids and the status of the enigmatic taxon Xyloplax. Xyloplax is thought by some to represent a newly discovered sixth class of echinoderms - and by others to be an asteroid. To address these questions, we applied a novel workflow to a large RNA-seq dataset that encompassed a broad taxonomic and genomic sample. This study included 15 species sampled from all extant orders and 13 families, plus four ophiuroid species as an outgroup. To expand the taxonomic coverage, the study also incorporated five previously published transcriptomes and one previously published expressed sequence tags (EST) dataset. We developed and applied methods that used a range of alignment parameters with increasing permissiveness in terms of gap characters present within an alignment. This procedure facilitated the selection of phylogenomic data subsets from large amounts of transcriptome data. The results included 19 nested data subsets that ranged from 37 to 4,281loci. Tree searches on all data subsets reconstructed Xyloplax as a velatid asteroid rather than a new class. This result implies that asteroid morphology remains labile well beyond the establishment of the body plan of the group. In the phylogenetic tree with the highest average asteroid nodal support several monophyletic groups were recovered. In this tree, Forcipulatida and Velatida are monophyletic and form a clade that includes Brisingida as sister to Forcipulatida. Xyloplax is consistently recovered as sister to Pteraster. Paxillosida and Spinulosida are each monophyletic, with Notomyotida as sister to the Paxillosida. Valvatida is recovered as paraphyletic. The results from other data subsets are largely consistent with these results. Our results support the hypothesis that the earliest divergence event among extant asteroids separated Velatida and Forcipulatacea from Valvatacea and Spinulosida.

Molecular evolution of Zika virus as it crossed the Pacific to the Americas.

Zika virus was previously considered to cause only a benign infection in humans. Studies of recent outbreaks of Zika virus in the Pacific, South America, Mexico and the Caribbean have associated the virus with severe neuropathology. Viral evolution may be one factor contributing to an apparent change in Zika disease as it spread from Southeast Asia across the Pacific to the Americas. To address this possibility, we have employed computational tools to compare the phylogeny, geography, immunology and RNA structure of Zika virus isolates from Africa, Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. In doing so, we compare and contrast methods and results for tree search and rooting of Zika virus phylogenies. In some phylogenetic analyses we find support for the hypothesis that there is a deep common ancestor between African and Asian clades (the "Asia/Africa" hypothesis). In other phylogenetic analyses, we find that Asian lineages are descendent from African lineages (the "out of Africa" hypothesis). In addition, we identify and evaluate key mutations in viral envelope protein coding and untranslated terminal RNA regions. We find stepwise mutations that have altered both immunological motif sets and regulatory sequence elements. Both of these sets of changes distinguish viruses found in Africa from those in the emergent Asia-Pacific-Americas lineage. These findings support the working hypothesis that mutations acquired by Zika virus in the Pacific and Americas contribute to changes in pathology. These results can inform experiments required to elucidate the role of viral genetic evolution in changes in neuropathology, including microcephaly and other neurological and skeletomuscular issues in infants, and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults.