Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks.

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

Delayed use of bioenergy crops might threaten climate and food security.

The potential of mitigation actions to limit global warming within 2 °C (ref. 1) might rely on the abundant supply of biomass for large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) that is assumed to scale up markedly in the future2-5. However, the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields may reduce the capacity of BECCS and threaten food security6-8, thus creating an unrecognized positive feedback loop on global warming. We quantified the strength of this feedback by implementing the responses of crop yields to increases in growing-season temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and intensity of nitrogen (N) fertilization in a compact Earth system model9. Exceeding a threshold of climate change would cause transformative changes in social-ecological systems by jeopardizing climate stability and threatening food security. If global mitigation alongside large-scale BECCS is delayed to 2060 when global warming exceeds about 2.5 °C, then the yields of agricultural residues for BECCS would be too low to meet the Paris goal of 2 °C by 2200. This risk of failure is amplified by the sustained demand for food, leading to an expansion of cropland or intensification of N fertilization to compensate for climate-induced yield losses. Our findings thereby reinforce the urgency of early mitigation, preferably by 2040, to avoid irreversible climate change and serious food crises unless other negative-emission technologies become available in the near future to compensate for the reduced capacity of BECCS.

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function.

The leaf economics spectrum1,2 and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions3 revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species2. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities4. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability4,5. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions6 from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems7,8.

Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands.

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change1. ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification2-4. Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius5. China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.

Different profiles of soil phosphorous compounds depending on tree species and availability of soil phosphorus in a tropical rainforest in French Guiana.

BACKGROUND: The availability of soil phosphorus (P) often limits the productivities of wet tropical lowland forests. Little is known, however, about the metabolomic profile of different chemical P compounds with potentially different uses and about the cycling of P and their variability across space under different tree species in highly diverse tropical rainforests. RESULTS: We hypothesised that the different strategies of the competing tree species to retranslocate, mineralise, mobilise, and take up P from the soil would promote distinct soil 31P profiles. We tested this hypothesis by performing a metabolomic analysis of the soils in two rainforests in French Guiana using 31P nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). We analysed 31P NMR chemical shifts in soil solutions of model P compounds, including inorganic phosphates, orthophosphate mono- and diesters, phosphonates, and organic polyphosphates. The identity of the tree species (growing above the soil samples) explained > 53% of the total variance of the 31P NMR metabolomic profiles of the soils, suggesting species-specific ecological niches and/or species-specific interactions with the soil microbiome and soil trophic web structure and functionality determining the use and production of P compounds. Differences at regional and topographic levels also explained some part of the the total variance of the 31P NMR profiles, although less than the influence of the tree species. Multivariate analyses of soil 31P NMR metabolomics data indicated higher soil concentrations of P biomolecules involved in the active use of P (nucleic acids and molecules involved with energy and anabolism) in soils with lower concentrations of total soil P and higher concentrations of P-storing biomolecules in soils with higher concentrations of total P. CONCLUSIONS: The results strongly suggest "niches" of soil P profiles associated with physical gradients, mostly topographic position, and with the specific distribution of species along this gradient, which is associated with species-specific strategies of soil P mineralisation, mobilisation, use, and uptake.

Divergent rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil microbial structure and function in long-term warmed steppe due to altered root exudation.

While there is an extensive body of research on the influence of climate warming on total soil microbial communities, our understanding of how rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil microorganisms respond to warming remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated the impact of 4 years of soil warming on the diversity and composition of microbial communities in the rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil of a temperate steppe, focusing on changes in root exudation rates and exudate compositions. We used open top chambers to simulate warming conditions, resulting in an average soil temperature increase of 1.1°C over a span of 4 years. Our results showed that, in the non-rhizosphere soil, warming had no significant impact on dissolved organic carbon concentrations, compositions, or the abundance of soil microbial functional genes related to carbon and nitrogen cycling. Moreover, soil microbial diversity and community composition remained largely unaffected, although warming resulted in increased complexity of soil bacteria and fungi in the non-rhizosphere soil. In contrast, warming resulted in a substantial decrease in root exudate carbon (by 19%) and nitrogen (by 12%) concentrations and induced changes in root exudate compositions, primarily characterized by a reduction in the abundance in alcohols, coenzymes and vitamins, and phenylpropanoids and polyketides. These changes in root exudation rates and exudate compositions resulted in significant shifts in rhizosphere soil microbial diversity and community composition, ultimately leading to a reduction in the complexity of rhizosphere bacterial and fungal community networks. Altered root exudation and rhizosphere microbial community composition therefore decreased the expression of functional genes related to soil carbon and nitrogen cycling. Interestingly, we found that changes in soil carbon-related genes were primarily driven by the fungal communities and their responses to warming, both in the rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil. The study of soil microbial structure and function in rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil provides an ideal setting for understanding mechanisms for governing rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results highlight the distinctly varied responses of soil microorganisms in the rhizosphere and non-rhizosphere soil to climate warming. This suggests the need for models to address these processes individually, enabling more accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on terrestrial carbon cycling.

Predicting the effect of confinement on the COVID-19 spread using machine learning enriched with satellite air pollution observations.

The real-time monitoring of reductions of economic activity by containment measures and its effect on the transmission of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is a critical unanswered question. We inferred 5,642 weekly activity anomalies from the meteorology-adjusted differences in spaceborne tropospheric NO2 column concentrations after the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak relative to the baseline from 2016 to 2019. Two satellite observations reveal reincreasing economic activity associated with lifting control measures that comes together with accelerating COVID-19 cases before the winter of 2020/2021. Application of the near-real-time satellite NO2 observations produces a much better prediction of the deceleration of COVID-19 cases than applying the Oxford Government Response Tracker, the Public Health and Social Measures, or human mobility data as alternative predictors. A convergent cross-mapping suggests that economic activity reduction inferred from NO2 is a driver of case deceleration in most of the territories. This effect, however, is not linear, while further activity reductions were associated with weaker deceleration. Over the winter of 2020/2021, nearly 1 million daily COVID-19 cases could have been avoided by optimizing the timing and strength of activity reduction relative to a scenario based on the real distribution. Our study shows how satellite observations can provide surrogate data for activity reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic and monitor the effectiveness of containment to the pandemic before vaccines become widely available.

Climate change increases carbon allocation to leaves in early leaf green-up.

Global greening, characterized by an increase in leaf area index (LAI), implies an increase in foliar carbon (C). Whether this increase in foliar C under climate change is due to higher photosynthesis or to higher allocation of C to leaves remains unknown. Here, we explored the trends in foliar C accumulation and allocation during leaf green-up from 2000 to 2017 using satellite-derived LAI and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) across the Northern Hemisphere. The accumulation of foliar C accelerated in the early green-up period due to both increased photosynthesis and higher foliar C allocation driven by climate change. In the late stage of green-up, however, we detected decreasing trends in foliar C accumulation and foliar C allocation. Such stage-dependent trends in the accumulation and allocation of foliar C are not represented in current terrestrial biosphere models. Our results highlight that a better representation of C allocation should be incorporated into models.

Decadal soil warming decreased vascular plant above and belowground production in a subarctic grassland by inducing nitrogen limitation.

Below and aboveground vegetation dynamics are crucial in understanding how climate warming may affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. In contrast to aboveground biomass, the response of belowground biomass to long-term warming has been poorly studied. Here, we characterized the impacts of decadal geothermal warming at two levels (on average +3.3°C and +7.9°C) on below and aboveground plant biomass stocks and production in a subarctic grassland. Soil warming did not change standing root biomass and even decreased fine root production and reduced aboveground biomass and production. Decadal soil warming also did not significantly alter the root-shoot ratio. The linear stepwise regression model suggested that following 10 yr of soil warming, temperature was no longer the direct driver of these responses, but losses of soil N were. Soil N losses, due to warming-induced decreases in organic matter and water retention capacity, were identified as key driver of the decreased above and belowground production. The reduction in fine root production was accompanied by thinner roots with increased specific root area. These results indicate that after a decade of soil warming, plant productivity in the studied subarctic grassland was affected by soil warming mainly by the reduction in soil N.

Radiation-constrained boundaries cause nonuniform responses of the carbon uptake phenology to climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere.

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two-dimensionality of the temperature-radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature-radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end-of-season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end-of-season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start-of-season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace.

Individual and interactive effects of warming and nitrogen supply on CO2 fluxes and carbon allocation in subarctic grassland.

Climate warming has been suggested to impact high latitude grasslands severely, potentially causing considerable carbon (C) losses from soil. Warming can also stimulate nitrogen (N) turnover, but it is largely unclear whether and how altered N availability impacts belowground C dynamics. Even less is known about the individual and interactive effects of warming and N availability on the fate of recently photosynthesized C in soil. On a 10-year geothermal warming gradient in Iceland, we studied the effects of soil warming and N addition on CO2 fluxes and the fate of recently photosynthesized C through CO2 flux measurements and a 13 CO2 pulse-labeling experiment. Under warming, ecosystem respiration exceeded maximum gross primary productivity, causing increased net CO2 emissions. N addition treatments revealed that, surprisingly, the plants in the warmed soil were N limited, which constrained primary productivity and decreased recently assimilated C in shoots and roots. In soil, microbes were increasingly C limited under warming and increased microbial uptake of recent C. Soil respiration was increased by warming and was fueled by increased belowground inputs and turnover of recently photosynthesized C. Our findings suggest that a decade of warming seemed to have induced a N limitation in plants and a C limitation by soil microbes. This caused a decrease in net ecosystem CO2 uptake and accelerated the respiratory release of photosynthesized C, which decreased the C sequestration potential of the grassland. Our study highlights the importance of belowground C allocation and C-N interactions in the C dynamics of subarctic ecosystems in a warmer world.

Global maps and factors driving forest foliar elemental composition: the importance of evolutionary history.

Consistent information on the current elemental composition of vegetation at global scale and the variables that determine it is lacking. To fill this gap, we gathered a total of 30 912 georeferenced records on woody plants foliar concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) from published databases, and produced global maps of foliar N, P and K concentrations for woody plants using neural networks at a resolution of 1 km2 . We used data for climate, atmospheric deposition, soil and morphoclimatic groups to train the neural networks. Foliar N, P and K do not follow clear global latitudinal patterns but are consistent with the hypothesis of soil substrate age. We additionally built generalized linear mixed models to investigate the evolutionary history effect together with the effects of environmental effects. In this comparison, evolutionary history effects explained most of the variability in all cases (mostly > 60%). These results emphasize the determinant role of evolutionary history in foliar elemental composition, which should be incorporated in upcoming dynamic global vegetation models.

Is the climate change mitigation effect of enhanced silicate weathering governed by biological processes?

A number of negative emission technologies (NETs) have been proposed to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere, with enhanced silicate weathering (ESW) as a relatively new NET with considerable climate change mitigation potential. Models calibrated to ESW rates in lab experiments estimate the global potential for inorganic carbon sequestration by ESW at about 0.5-5 Gt CO2  year-1 , suggesting ESW could be an important component of the future NETs mix. In real soils, however, weathering rates may differ strongly from lab conditions. Research on natural weathering has shown that biota such as plants, microbes, and macro-invertebrates can strongly affect weathering rates, but biotic effects were excluded from most ESW lab assessments. Moreover, ESW may alter soil organic carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions by influencing physicochemical and biological processes, which holds the potential to perpetuate even larger negative emissions. Here, we argue that it is likely that the climate change mitigation effect of ESW will be governed by biological processes, emphasizing the need to put these processes on the agenda of this emerging research field.

Bryophyte C:N:P stoichiometry, biogeochemical niches and elementome plasticity driven by environment and coexistence.

Ecological stoichiometry and studies of biogeochemical niches have mainly focused on plankton and vascular plants, but the phenotypically closest modern relatives of early plants, bryophytes, have been largely neglected. We analysed C:N:P stoichiometries and elemental compositions (K, Na, Mg, Ca, S, Fe) of 35 widely distributed bryophyte species inhabiting springs. We estimated bryophyte C:N:P ratios and their biogeochemical niches, investigated how elementomes respond to the environment and determined whether they tend to diverge more for coexisting than non-coexisting individuals and species. The median C:N:P was 145:8:1, intermediate between Redfield's ratio for marine plankton and those for vascular plants. Biogeochemical niches were differentiated amongst species and were phylogenetically conserved. Differences in individual and species-specific elementomes increased with coexistence between species. Our results provide an evolutionary bridge between the ecological stoichiometries of algae and vascular plants and suggest that differences in elementomes could be used to understand community assemblages and functional diversity.

Simultaneous tree stem and soil greenhouse gas (CO2 , CH4 , N2 O) flux measurements: a novel design for continuous monitoring towards improving flux estimates and temporal resolution.

Tree stems and soils can act as sources and sinks for the greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO2 ), methane (CH4 ), and nitrous oxide (N2 O). Since both uptake and emission capacities can be large, especially in tropical rainforests, accurate assessments of the magnitudes and temporal variations of stem and soil GHG fluxes are required. We designed a new flexible stem chamber system for continuously measuring GHG fluxes in a French Guianese rainforest. Here, we describe this new system, which is connected to an automated soil GHG flux system, and discuss measurement uncertainty and potential error sources. In line with findings for soil GHG flux estimates, we demonstrated that lengthening the stem chamber closure time was required for accurate estimates of tree stem CH4 and N2 O flux but not tree stem CO2 flux. The instrumented stem was a net source of CO2 and CH4 and a weak sink of N2 O. Our experimental setup operated successfully in situ and provided continuous tree and soil GHG measurements at a high temporal resolution over an 11-month period. This automated system is a major step forward in the measurement of GHG fluxes in stems and the atmosphere concurrently with soil GHG fluxes in tropical forest ecosystems.

The effect of global change on soil phosphatase activity.

Soil phosphatase enzymes are produced by plant roots and microorganisms and play a key role in the cycling of phosphorus (P), an often-limiting element in terrestrial ecosystems. The production of these enzymes in soil is the most important biological strategy for acquiring phosphate ions from organic molecules. Previous works showed how soil potential phosphatase activity is mainly driven by climatic conditions and soil nitrogen (N) and carbon. Nonetheless, future trends of the activity of these enzymes under global change remain little known. We investigated the influence of some of the main drivers of change on soil phosphatase activity using a meta-analysis of results from 97 published studies. Our database included a compilation of N and P fertilization experiments, manipulation experiments with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, warming, and drought, and studies comparing invaded and non-invaded ecosystems. Our results indicate that N fertilization leads to higher phosphatase activity, whereas P fertilization has the opposite effect. The rise of atmospheric CO2 levels or the arrival of invasive species also exhibits positive response ratios on the activity of soil phosphatases. However, the occurrence of recurrent drought episodes decreases the activity of soil phosphatases. Our analysis did not reveal statistically significant effects of warming on soil phosphatase activity. In general, soil enzymatic changes in the reviewed experiments depended on the initial nutrient and water status of the ecosystems. The observed patterns evidence that future soil phosphatase activity will not only depend on present-day soil conditions but also on potential compensations or amplifications among the different drivers of global change. The responses of soil phosphatases to the global change drivers reported in this study and the consideration of cost-benefit approaches based on the connection of the P and N cycle will be useful for a better estimation of phosphatase production in carbon (C)-N-P models.

Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding.

Earlier spring leaf unfolding is a frequently observed response of plants to climate warming. Many deciduous tree species require chilling for dormancy release, and warming-related reductions in chilling may counteract the advance of leaf unfolding in response to warming. Empirical evidence for this, however, is limited to saplings or twigs in climate-controlled chambers. Using long-term in situ observations of leaf unfolding for seven dominant European tree species at 1,245 sites, here we show that the apparent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming (ST, expressed in days advance of leaf unfolding per °C warming) has significantly decreased from 1980 to 2013 in all monitored tree species. Averaged across all species and sites, ST decreased by 40% from 4.0 ± 1.8 days °C(-1) during 1980-1994 to 2.3 ± 1.6 days °C(-1) during 1999-2013. The declining ST was also simulated by chilling-based phenology models, albeit with a weaker decline (24-30%) than observed in situ. The reduction in ST is likely to be partly attributable to reduced chilling. Nonetheless, other mechanisms may also have a role, such as 'photoperiod limitation' mechanisms that may become ultimately limiting when leaf unfolding dates occur too early in the season. Our results provide empirical evidence for a declining ST, but also suggest that the predicted strong winter warming in the future may further reduce ST and therefore result in a slowdown in the advance of tree spring phenology.

Phosphorus alleviation of nitrogen-suppressed methane sink in global grasslands.

Grassland ecosystems account for more than 10% of the global CH4 sink in soils. A 4-year field experiment found that addition of P alone did not affect CH4 uptake and experimental addition of N alone significantly suppressed CH4 uptake, whereas concurrent N and P additions suppressed CH4 uptake to a lesser degree. A meta-analysis including 382 data points in global grasslands corroborated these findings. Global extrapolation with an empirical modelling approach estimated that contemporary N addition suppresses CH4 sink in global grassland by 11.4% and concurrent N and P deposition alleviates this suppression to 5.8%. The P alleviation of N-suppressed CH4 sink is primarily attributed to substrate competition, defined as the competition between ammonium and CH4 for the methane mono-oxygenase enzyme. The N and P impacts on CH4 uptake indicate that projected increases in N and P depositions might substantially affect CH4 uptake and alter the global CH4 cycle.

Anthropogenic global shifts in biospheric N and P concentrations and ratios and their impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, food security, and human health.

The availability of carbon (C) from high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and anthropogenic release of nitrogen (N) is increasing, but these increases are not paralleled by increases in levels of phosphorus (P). The current unstoppable changes in the stoichiometries of C and N relative to P have no historical precedent. We describe changes in P and N fluxes over the last five decades that have led to asymmetrical increases in P and N inputs to the biosphere. We identified widespread and rapid changes in N:P ratios in air, soil, water, and organisms and important consequences to the structure, function, and biodiversity of ecosystems. A mass-balance approach found that the combined limited availability of P and N was likely to reduce C storage by natural ecosystems during the remainder of the 21st Century, and projected crop yields of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment indicated an increase in nutrient deficiency in developing regions if access to P fertilizer is limited. Imbalances of the N:P ratio would likely negatively affect human health, food security, and global economic and geopolitical stability, with feedbacks and synergistic effects on drivers of global environmental change, such as increasing levels of CO2 , climatic warming, and increasing pollution. We summarize potential solutions for avoiding the negative impacts of global imbalances of N:P ratios on the environment, biodiversity, climate change, food security, and human health.

The role of climate, foliar stoichiometry and plant diversity on ecosystem carbon balance.

Global change is affecting terrestrial carbon (C) balances. The effect of climate on ecosystem C balance has been largely explored, but the roles of other concurrently changing factors, such as diversity and nutrient availability, remain elusive. We used eddy-covariance C-flux measurements from 62 ecosystems from which we compiled information on climate, ecosystem type, stand age, species abundance and foliar concentrations of N and P of the main species, to assess their importance in the ecosystem C balance. Climate and productivity were the main determinants of ecosystem C balance and its stability. In P-rich sites, increasing N was related to increased gross primary production and respiration and vice versa, but reduced net C uptake. Our analyses did not provide evidence for a strong relation between ecosystem diversity and their productivity and stability. Nonetheless, these results suggest that nutrient imbalances and, potentially, diversity loss may alter future global C balance.