Ecological change predicts population dynamics and genetic diversity over 120 000 years.

While ecological effects on short-term population dynamics are well understood, their effects over millennia are difficult to demonstrate and convincing evidence is scant. Using coalescent methods, we analysed past population dynamics of three lizard species (Psammodromus hispanicus, P. edwardsianus, P. occidentalis) and linked the results with climate change data covering the same temporal horizon (120 000 years). An increase in population size over time was observed in two species, and in P. occidentalis, no change was observed. Temporal changes in temperature seasonality and the maximum temperature of the warmest month were congruent with changes in population dynamics observed for the three species and both variables affected population density, either directly or indirectly (via a life-history trait). These results constitute the first solid link between ecological change and long-term population dynamics. The results moreover suggest that ecological change leaves genetic signatures that can be retrospectively traced, providing evidence that ecological change is a crucial driver of genetic diversity and speciation.

Niche differentiation between deeply divergent phylogenetic lineages of an endemic newt: implications for Species Distribution Models.

Species distribution models (SDMs) treat species as a single unit, neglecting intraspecific variation. Few studies address the impact of intraspecific variation on SDM performance, and none of them account for the well-known inter-algorithm variability in prediction performance. The endemic Iberian amphibian Lissotriton boscai comprises two geographically highly structured phylogenetic lineages, which allowed us to explore how intraspecific variation affects the overall performance of SDMs and the predicted ecological niche. We built species and lineage distribution models using three different presence-only algorithms. We also tested for niche overlap, niche equivalency and niche similarity, using an ordination technique. We found differences in the predicted potential distribution of the two lineages and the underlying environmental factors. Moreover, intraspecific differences in model predictive capacity existed irrespective of which algorithm was used to build the distribution models. This was coupled with lineages showing a low degree of niche overlap and occurring in relatively different environmental niches spaces. The intraspecific variation observed in L. boscai led to an improved intraspecific predictivity of the lineage level based-distribution models. There was partial spatial agreement between the niche overlap and independently reported secondary contact zones. Thus SDMs built only at the species level may be too naive to predict impacts of global change on species distributions.

Arthropod biodiversity patterns point to the Mesovoid Shallow Substratum (MSS) as a climate refugium.

The determinants of biodiversity patterns in the subterranean habitat called Mesovoid Shallow Substratum (MSS) are not well-understood. In this study, thirty-three scree slopes at high altitudes were selected across the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park in central Spain to investigate the effect of ten environmental variables on the abundance and species diversity of the spider and springtail assemblages from the colluvial MSS. In each locality, a multiperforated PVC tube with a pitfall trap inside was buried up to 1 m deep, and generalized linear models and Mantel tests were used to analyze the effect of mainly climate- and habitat-related variables on the diversity patterns of both taxa. A total of 1143 individual spiders belonging to 54 species and 40 811 springtail individuals belonging to 62 species were collected. The analyses indicated that cold temperatures and the presence of forest cover on the surface significantly enhance richness and abundance in the two taxa. Environmental similarity also had a small positive effect on faunistic similarity. However, the effects of temperature and habitat detected on spider richness and abundance were stronger than on springtails, whereas the reverse was found regarding faunistic similarity. These results indicate that subterranean dwellers respond differently to the same environmental factors, which in turn, points to a different degree of affinity for the MSS. The MSS plays an important role in the survival of high mountain arthropod species, acting as a climate refuge, so the protection of this habitat should be prioritized.

The study of hidden habitats sheds light on poorly known taxa: spiders of the Mesovoid Shallow Substratum.

The scarce and biased knowledge about the diversity and distribution of Araneae species in the Iberian Peninsula is accentuated in poorly known habitats such as the Mesovoid Shallow Substratum (MSS). The aim of this study was to characterize the spiders inventory of the colluvial MSS of the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park, and to assess the importance of this habitat for the conservation of the taxon. Thirty-three localities were selected across the high peaks of the Guadarrama mountain range and they were sampled for a year using subterranean traps specially designed to capture arthropods in the MSS. Species accumulation curves were built both for the observed species richness and for the non-parametric richness estimators. The literature was reviewed in order to update the distributional maps of the rarest species. Forty-two species were collected, of which four were species new to science. More than half were represented by one or two individuals which caused the accumulation curves to rise slowly and to end without reaching an asymptote. Almost half of the species showed significant increases in their Iberian distribution ranges. Two species were recorded for the first time in the Iberian Peninsula and 32 species were new additions to the spider checklist of the Sierra de Guadarrama National Park.

Energy and speleogenesis: Key determinants of terrestrial species richness in caves.

The aim of this study was to unravel the relative role played by speleogenesis (i.e., the process in which a cave is formed), landscape-scale variables, and geophysical factors in the determination of species richness in caves. Biological inventories from 21 caves located in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula along with partial least square (PLS) regression analysis were used to assess the relative importance of the different explanatory variables. The caves were grouped according to the similarity in their species composition; the effect that spatial distance could have on similarity was also studied using correlation between matrices. The energy and speleogenesis of caves accounted for 44.3% of the variation in species richness. The trophic level of each cave was the most significant factor in PLS regression analysis, and epigenic caves (i.e., those formed by the action of percolating water) had significantly more species than hypogenic ones (i.e., those formed by the action of upward flows in confined aquifers). Dissimilarity among the caves was very high (multiple-site ßsim = 0.92). Two main groups of caves were revealed through the cluster analysis, one formed by the western caves and the other by the eastern ones. The significant-but low-correlation found between faunistic dissimilarity and geographical distance (r = .16) disappeared once the caves were split into the two groups. The extreme beta-diversity suggests a very low connection among the caves and/or a very low dispersal capacity of the species. In the region under study, two main factors are intimately related to the richness of terrestrial subterranean species in caves: the amount of organic material (trophic level) and the formation process (genesis). This is the first time that the history of a cave genesis has been quantitatively considered to assess its importance in explaining richness patterns in comparison with other factors more widely recognized.

The "Alluvial Mesovoid Shallow Substratum", a new subterranean habitat.

In this paper we describe a new type of subterranean habitat associated with dry watercourses in the Eastern Iberian Peninsula, the "Alluvial Mesovoid Shallow Substratum" (alluvial MSS). Historical observations and data from field sampling specially designed to study MSS fauna in the streambeds of temporary watercourses support the description of this new habitat. To conduct the sampling, 16 subterranean sampling devices were placed in a region of Eastern Spain. The traps were operated for 12 months and temperature and relative humidity data were recorded to characterise the habitat. A large number of species was captured, many of which belonged to the arthropod group, with marked hygrophilous, geophilic, lucifugous and mesothermal habits. In addition, there was also a substantial number of species showing markedly ripicolous traits. The results confirm that the network of spaces which forms in alluvial deposits of temporary watercourses merits the category of habitat, and here we propose the name of "alluvial MSS". The "alluvial MSS" may be covered or not by a layer of soil, is extremely damp, provides a buffer against above ground temperatures and is aphotic. In addition, compared to other types of MSS, it is a very unstable habitat. It is possible that the "alluvial MSS" may be found in other areas of the world with strongly seasonal climatic regimes, and could play an important role as a biogeographic corridor and as a refuge from climatic changes.

A multiple-site similarity measure independent of richness.

The Diserud-Ødegaard multiple-site similarity index makes use of data on species shared by two or more sites, but produces equal similarity values in two different circumstances: species loss and true species turnover. We developed a new multiple-site similarity measure, which is independent of richness and performs better than the Diserud-Ødegaard index under conditions of equal richness between sites, because it discriminates between situations in which shared species are distributed evenly among sites or concentrated in few pairs of sites. We conducted several simulations to assess the relative performance of both the indices. The use of the new measure is recommended, enabling the simultaneous analysis of turnover and richness gradients based on two independent measures.

Limitations of biodiversity databases: case study on seed-plant diversity in Tenerife, Canary Islands.

Databases on the distribution of species can be used to describe the geographic patterns of biodiversity. Nevertheless, they have limitations. We studied three of these limitations: (1) inadequacy of raw data to describe richness patterns due to sampling bias, (2) lack of survey effort assessment (and lack of exhaustiveness in compiling data about survey effort), and (3) lack of coverage of the geographic and environmental variations that affect the distribution of organisms. We used a biodiversity database (BIOTA-Canarias) to analyze richness data from a well-known group (seed plants) in an intensively surveyed area (Tenerife Island). Observed richness and survey effort were highly correlated. Species accumulation curves could not be used to determine survey effort because data digitalization was not exhaustive, so we identified well-sampled sites based on observed richness to sampling effort ratios. We also developed a predictive model based on the data from well-sampled sites and analyzed the origin of the geographic errors in the obtained extrapolation by means of a geographically constrained cross-validation. The spatial patterns of seed-plant species richness obtained from BIOTA-Canarias data were incomplete and biased. Therefore, some improvements are needed to use this database (and many others) in biodiversity studies. We propose a protocol that includes controls on data quality, improvements on data digitalization and survey design to improve data quality, and some alternative data analysis strategies that will provide a reliable picture of biodiversity patterns.