Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change.

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.

Are functional traits good predictors of demographic rates? Evidence from five neotropical forests.

A central goal of comparative plant ecology is to understand how functional traits vary among species and to what extent this variation has adaptive value. Here we evaluate relationships between four functional traits (seed volume, specific leaf area, wood density, and adult stature) and two demographic attributes (diameter growth and tree mortality) for large trees of 240 tree species from five Neotropical forests. We evaluate how these key functional traits are related to survival and growth and whether similar relationships between traits and demography hold across different tropical forests. There was a tendency for a trade-off between growth and survival across rain forest tree species. Wood density, seed volume, and adult stature were significant predictors of growth and/or mortality. Both growth and mortality rates declined with an increase in wood density. This is consistent with greater construction costs and greater resistance to stem damage for denser wood. Growth and mortality rates also declined as seed volume increased. This is consistent with an adaptive syndrome in which species tolerant of low resource availability (in this case shade-tolerant species) have large seeds to establish successfully and low inherent growth and mortality rates. Growth increased and mortality decreased with an increase in adult stature, because taller species have a greater access to light and longer life spans. Specific leaf area was, surprisingly, only modestly informative for the performance of large trees and had ambiguous relationships with growth and survival. Single traits accounted for 9-55% of the interspecific variation in growth and mortality rates at individual sites. Significant correlations with demographic rates tended to be similar across forests and for phylogenetically independent contrasts as well as for cross-species analyses that treated each species as an independent observation. In combination, the morphological traits explained 41% of the variation in growth rate and 54% of the variation in mortality rate, with wood density being the best predictor of growth and mortality. Relationships between functional traits and demographic rates were statistically similar across a wide range of Neotropical forests. The consistency of these results strongly suggests that tropical rain forest species face similar trade-offs in different sites and converge on similar sets of solutions.

Temporal variation in the pollen:ovule ratios of Clarkia (Onagraceae) taxa with contrasting mating systems: field populations.

Among plants, pairs of selfing vs. outcrossing sister taxa provide interesting systems in which to test predictions concerning the magnitude and direction of temporal changes in sex allocation. Although resource availability typically declines towards the end of the growing season for annual taxa, temporal changes in mating opportunities depend on mating system and should change less in selfing taxa. Consequently, given that the pollen:ovule (P:O) ratio of flowers reflects the investment in (and potential fitness pay-off due to) male vs. female function, we predicted that the P:O ratio should also be less variable among and within selfers than in closely related outcrossers. To test these predictions, we measured temporal changes in sex allocation in multiple field populations of two pairs of sister taxa in the annual flowering plant genus Clarkia (Onagraceae). In the outcrossing Clarkia unguiculata and the selfing Clarkia exilis, ovule production declined similarly from early to late buds, whereas pollen production remained constant or increased in the outcrosser but remained constant or decreased in the selfer. Consequently, the P:O ratio increased within unguiculata populations but marginally increased or stayed constant in exilis populations. In all populations of the selfing Clarkia xantiana spp. parviflora and the outcrossing C. x. spp. xantiana, both ovule and pollen production per flower declined over time. The effects of these declines on the P:O ratio, however, differed between subspecies. In each xantiana population, the mean P:O ratio did not differ between early and late flowers, although individuals varied greatly in the direction and magnitude of phenotypic change. By contrast, parviflora populations differed in the mean direction of temporal change in the P:O ratio. We found little evidence to support our initial predictions that the P:O ratio of the selfing taxa will consistently vary less than in outcrossing taxa.

Trade-offs between male and female reproduction associated with allozyme variation in phosphoglucoisomerase in an annual plant (Clarkia unguiculata: Onagraceae).

The genotype of an individual for allozymes such as phosphoglucoisomerase (Pgi) is often not neutral with regard to fitness. Studies of several taxa have found consistent fitness differences among Pgi genotypes expressing different allozymes. We conducted a greenhouse experiment with Clarkia unguiculata to determine whether allelic variation at the Pgi-C1 locus may affect components of male and female function. We found significant differences in siring success between pollen donors homozygous for different Pgi alleles. When a mixture of pollen was applied to stigmas under conditions of gametophytic competition (more pollen deposited on stigmas than there are ovules available to fertilize), donors homozygous for the C allele of Pgi sired more seeds per fruit than B-allele donors. Differences between genotypes with respect to female fertility per fruit contrasted with the male advantage associated with the C allele. Recipients homozygous for the C allele produced fruits with more aborted seeds and fewer viable seeds than recipients homozygous for the B allele. These results suggest that allelic variation at a single locus may have opposing effects on male and female reproductive success in C. unguiculata, and that trade-offs between the two types of reproductive success could contribute to the maintenance of variation at the Pgi-C1 locus.

The joint evolution of mating system, floral traits and life history in Clarkia (Onagraceae): genetic constraints vs. independent evolution.

Genetic correlations caused by pleiotropy or linkage disequilibrium may influence the joint evolution of multiple traits as populations or taxa diverge. The evolutionary transition from outcrossing to selfing has occurred numerous times and is often accompanied by phenotypic and genetic changes in multiple traits such as flower size, pollen-ovule ratio, stigma and anther maturity and the age of reproductive maturity. Determining whether the recurring patterns of multitrait change are because of selection on each trait independently and/or the result of genetic correlations among traits can shed light on the mechanism that accounts for such convergence. Here, we evaluate whether floral traits are genetically correlated with each other and/or with whole-plant traits within- and between-populations and taxa. We report results from a greenhouse study conducted on two pairs of sister taxa with contrasting mating systems: the autogamously selfing Clarkia exilis and its predominantly outcrossing progenitor C. unguiculata and the autogamous Clarkia xantiana ssp. parviflora and its outcrossing progenitor C. xantiana ssp. xantiana. We examined variation within and covariation among maternal families in three populations of each taxon with respect to the age at first flower, the rate of successive flower production and the number of days between bud break and anther dehiscence and stigma receptivity within individual flowers. Based on phenotypic divergence between sister taxa, bivariate regressions, correlations among maternal family means and analysis of covariance (ancova), we did not find unilateral support indicating that genetic constraints govern the joint distribution of floral and whole-plant traits.

The absence of cryptic self-incompatibility in Clarkia unguiculata (Onagraceae).

Many species exhibit reduced siring success of self-relative to outcross-pollen donors. This can be attributed either to postfertilization abortion of selfed ovules or to cryptic self-incompatibility (CSI). CSI is a form of self-incompatibility whereby the advantage to outcross pollen is expressed only following pollinations where there is gametophytic competition between self and outcross pollen. Under the definition of CSI, this differential success is due to the superior prefertilization performance (pollen germination rate and pollen tube growth rate) of outcross pollen relative to self pollen. Although CSI has been demonstrated in several plant species, no studies have assessed among-population variation in the expression of CSI. We conducted a greenhouse study on Clarkia unguiculata (an annual species with a mixed-mating system) to detect CSI, and we compare our observations to previous reports of CSI in C. gracilis and another population of C. unguiculata. In contrast to these previous studies of CSI in Clarkia, we used genetic rather than phenotypic markers to measure the relative performance of selfed vs. outcross pollen. In this study, we measured the intensity of CSI in C. unguiculata from a large population in southern California and we determined whether the magnitude of pollen competition (manipulated by controlling the number of pollen grains deposited on a stigma) influenced the outcome of competition between self and outcross pollen. In contrast to previous investigations of Clarkia, we found no evidence for CSI. The mean number of seeds sired per fruit did not differ between self and outcross pollen following either single-donor or mixed pollinations. In addition, the relative success of selfed vs. outcross pollen was independent of the magnitude of pollen competition. These results suggest that: (1) one of the few nonheterostylous species previously thought to be cryptically self-incompatible is completely self-compatible (at least in the population studied here) or (2) phenotypic markers may be problematic for the detection of CSI.

Size-dependent sex allocation within flowers of the annual herb Clarkia unguiculata (Onagraceae): ontogenetic and among-plant variation.

The relative allocation of resources to male and female functions may vary among flowers within and among individual plants for many reasons. Several theoretical models of sex allocation in plants predict a positive correlation between the resource status of a flower or individual and the proportion of reproductive resources allocated to female function. These models assume that, independent of resource status, a negative correlation exists between male and female investment. Focusing on the allocation of resources within flowers, we tested these theoretical predictions and this assumption using the annual Clarkia unguiculata (Onagraceae). We also sought preliminary evidence for a genetic component to these relationships. From 116 greenhouse-cultivated plants representing 30 field-collected maternal families, multiple flowers and fruits per plant were sampled for gamete production, pollen : ovule ratio, seed number, ovule abortion, seed biomass/fruit, mean individual seed mass, and petal area. If sex allocation changes as predicted, then (1) assuming that flowers produced early have access to more resources than those produced later, basal flowers should exhibit a higher absolute and proportional investment in female function than distal flowers and (2) plants of high resource status (large plants) should produce flowers with a higher proportional investment in female function than those of low resource status. Within plants, variation in floral traits conformed to the first prediction. Among plants and families, no significant effects of plant size (dry stem biomass) on intrafloral proportional sex allocation were observed. We detected no evidence for a negative genetic correlation between male and female investment per flower, even when controlling for plant size.

Allozyme variation in Ulmus species from France: analysis of differentiation.

In the present paper, the geographical structure of genetic variation in three French elm taxa is described using electrophoretic data. For three species, Ulmus laevis, U. glabra and U. minor, two kinds of analyses were performed. First, the genetic parameters (genetic diversity indices) of individuals sampled from naturally regenerating forest were compared to samples of cultivated ornamental trees. Secondly, when sample sizes were sufficient, the genetic parameters of trees sampled from different regions of France were compared to detect geographical differentiation. From these analyses, the ultimate aim was to offer recommendations concerning the conservation policies of the genetic resources of French elms. The heterozygosity of Ulmusxhollandica (the presumed hybrid between U. minor and U. glabra) was compared to its putative parent taxa to determine whether the hybrid harbours great levels of genetic variation. In spite of the ravaging effects of Dutch Elm disease in the past, all three species exhibit high levels of electrophoretic variation. The three species surveyed displayed similar levels of genetic diversity, proportions of polymorphic loci and levels of allelic diversity in trees harvested from naturally regenerated forests relative to cultivated ornamental trees. High levels of genetic diversity in U. minor within geographical regions of France were detected, with only moderate levels of genetic differentiation detected between regions. Ulmusxhollandica is not more heterozygous than either of its parent species, suggesting that extant representatives of this taxon are the result of past and ongoing backcrosses with the parental taxa. Ongoing efforts to preserve the genetic variation still present in French elms should take advantage of their high levels of electrophoretic variation and target genetically distinct, vegetatively reproducing genotypes in their natural environment.