Incidence of Invasive and Noninvasive Pneumococcal Pneumonia Hospitalizations in People Aged ≥50 Years: Assessing Variability Across Denmark and Spain.

Determining pneumococcal pneumonia (PP) burden in the elderly population is challenging due to limited data on invasive PP (IPP) and, in particular, noninvasive PP (NIPP) incidence. Using retrospective cohorts of adults aged ≥50 years in Denmark (2 782 303) and the Valencia region, Spain (2 283 344), we found higher IPP hospitalization rates in Denmark than Valencia (18.3 vs 9/100 000 person-years [PY], respectively). Conversely, NIPP hospitalization rates were higher in Valencia (48.2 vs 7.2/100 000 PY). IPP and NIPP rates increased with age and comorbidities in both regions, with variations by sex and case characteristics (eg, complications, mortality). The burden of PP in adults is substantial, yet its true magnitude remains elusive. Discrepancies in clinical practices impede international comparisons; for instance, Valencia employed a higher frequency of urinary antigen tests compared to Denmark. Additionally, coding practices and prehospital antibiotic utilization may further influence these variations. These findings could guide policymakers and enhance the understanding of international disparities in disease burden assessments.

Increasing Prevalence of Cerebral Palsy Among Two-Year-Old Children Born at <27 Weeks of Gestation: A Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in prevalence and severity of cerebral palsy (CP) among surviving children born at <27 weeks of gestation over time and to determine associations between CP and other developmental domains, functional impairment, medical morbidities, and resource use among 2-year-old children who were born extremely preterm. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using prospective registry data, conducted at 25 centers of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Participants were children born at <27 weeks of gestation and followed at 18 through 26 months of corrected age from 2008 through 2019. Outcomes of interest were changes in prevalence of any CP and severity of CP over time and associations between CP and other neurodevelopmental outcomes, functional impairment, and medical comorbidities. Adjusted logistic, linear, multinomial logistic, and robust Poisson regression evaluated the relationships between child characteristics, CP severity, and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 6927 surviving children with complete follow-up data, 3717 (53.7%) had normal neurologic examinations, 1303 (18.8%) had CP, and the remainder had abnormal neurologic examinations not classified as CP. Adjusted rates of any CP increased each year of the study period (aOR 1.11 per year, 95% CI 1.08-1.14). Cognitive development was significantly associated with severity of CP. Children with CP were more likely to have multiple medical comorbidities, neurosensory problems, and poor growth at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of CP among surviving children who were born extremely preterm increased from 2008 through 2019. At 18 to 26 months of corrected age, neurodevelopmental and medical comorbidities are strongly associated with all severity levels of CP.

Neurodevelopmental Outcomes of Extremely Preterm Infants Fed Donor Milk or Preterm Infant Formula: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Maternal milk feeding of extremely preterm infants during the birth hospitalization has been associated with better neurodevelopmental outcomes compared with preterm formula. For infants receiving no or minimal maternal milk, it is unknown whether donor human milk conveys similar neurodevelopmental advantages vs preterm formula. Objective: To determine if nutrient-fortified, pasteurized donor human milk improves neurodevelopmental outcomes at 22 to 26 months' corrected age compared with preterm infant formula among extremely preterm infants who received minimal maternal milk. Design, Setting, and Participants: Double-blind, randomized clinical trial conducted at 15 US academic medical centers within the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Infants younger than 29 weeks 0 days' gestation or with a birth weight of less than 1000 g were enrolled between September 2012 and March 2019. Intervention: Preterm formula or donor human milk feeding from randomization to 120 days of age, death, or hospital discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (BSID) cognitive score measured at 22 to 26 months' corrected age; a score of 54 (score range, 54-155; a score of ≥85 indicates no neurodevelopmental delay) was assigned to infants who died between randomization and 22 to 26 months' corrected age. The 24 secondary outcomes included BSID language and motor scores, in-hospital growth, necrotizing enterocolitis, and death. Results: Of 1965 eligible infants, 483 were randomized (239 in the donor milk group and 244 in the preterm formula group); the median gestational age was 26 weeks (IQR, 25-27 weeks), the median birth weight was 840 g (IQR, 676-986 g), and 52% were female. The birthing parent's race was self-reported as Black for 52% (247/478), White for 43% (206/478), and other for 5% (25/478). There were 54 infants who died prior to follow-up; 88% (376/429) of survivors were assessed at 22 to 26 months' corrected age. The adjusted mean BSID cognitive score was 80.7 (SD, 17.4) for the donor milk group vs 81.1 (SD, 16.7) for the preterm formula group (adjusted mean difference, -0.77 [95% CI, -3.93 to 2.39], which was not significant); the adjusted mean BSID language and motor scores also did not differ. Mortality (death prior to follow-up) was 13% (29/231) in the donor milk group vs 11% (25/233) in the preterm formula group (adjusted risk difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]). Necrotizing enterocolitis occurred in 4.2% of infants (10/239) in the donor milk group vs 9.0% of infants (22/244) in the preterm formula group (adjusted risk difference, -5% [95% CI, -9% to -2%]). Weight gain was slower in the donor milk group (22.3 g/kg/d [95% CI, 21.3 to 23.3 g/kg/d]) compared with the preterm formula group (24.6 g/kg/d [95% CI, 23.6 to 25.6 g/kg/d]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among extremely preterm neonates fed minimal maternal milk, neurodevelopmental outcomes at 22 to 26 months' corrected age did not differ between infants fed donor milk or preterm formula. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01534481.

Evaluation of heterogeneity in effect of therapeutic hypothermia by sex among infants with neonatal encephalopathy.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to examine heterogeneity in the effect of therapeutic hypothermia by sex in infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. METHODS: We conducted a post hoc analysis of the Induced Hypothermia trial, which included infants born at gestational ages ≥36 weeks, admitted at ≤6 postnatal hours with evidence of severe acidosis or perinatal complications and moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. Multivariate modified Poisson regression models were used to compare the treatment effect of whole-body hypothermia versus control, with an evaluation of interaction by sex, on the primary outcome of death or moderate or severe disability at 18-22 months of corrected age. RESULTS: A total of 101 infants (51 male, 50 female) were randomly assigned to hypothermia treatment and 104 infants (64 male, 40 female) to control. The primary outcome occurred in 45% of the hypothermia group and 63% of the control group (RR 0.73; 95% CI 0.56, 0.94). There was no significant difference (interaction P = 0.50) in the treatment effect of hypothermia on the primary outcome between females (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.54, 1.17) compared to males (RR 0.63; 95% CI 0.44, 0.91). CONCLUSION: We found no evidence that sex influences the treatment effect of hypothermia in infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy. IMPACT: Preclinical evidence suggests a differential effect in response to cooling treatment of hypoxic-ischemic injury between males and females. We found no evidence of heterogeneity in the treatment effect of whole-body hypothermia by sex in this post hoc subgroup analysis of infants with moderate or severe neonatal encephalopathy from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Induced Hypothermia trial.

Burden of infectious disease studies in Europe and the United Kingdom: a review of methodological design choices.

This systematic literature review aimed to provide an overview of the characteristics and methods used in studies applying the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) concept for infectious diseases within European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA)/European Free Trade Association (EFTA) countries and the United Kingdom. Electronic databases and grey literature were searched for articles reporting the assessment of DALY and its components. We considered studies in which researchers performed DALY calculations using primary epidemiological data input sources. We screened 3053 studies of which 2948 were excluded and 105 studies met our inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 22 were multi-country and 83 were single-country studies, of which 46 were from the Netherlands. Food- and water-borne diseases were the most frequently studied infectious diseases. Between 2015 and 2022, the number of burden of infectious disease studies was 1.6 times higher compared to that published between 2000 and 2014. Almost all studies (97%) estimated DALYs based on the incidence- and pathogen-based approach and without social weighting functions; however, there was less methodological consensus with regards to the disability weights and life tables that were applied. The number of burden of infectious disease studies undertaken across Europe has increased over time. Development and use of guidelines will promote performing burden of infectious disease studies and facilitate comparability of the results.

Population-level estimates of hepatitis C reinfection post scale-up of direct-acting antivirals among people who inject drugs.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Scotland has led to a reduction in the prevalence of viraemia in this population. However, the extent of reinfection among those treated with DAAs remains uncertain. We estimated HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland by treatment setting, pre- and post-introduction of DAAs, and the potential number of undiagnosed reinfections resulting from incomplete follow-up testing. METHODS: Through linkage of national clinical and laboratory HCV data, a retrospective cohort of PWID who commenced treatment between 2000-2018 and achieved a sustained virological response (SVR) were followed up for reinfection to December 2019. Reinfection was defined as a positive HCV antigen or RNA test. RESULTS: Of 5,686 SVRs among 5,592 PWID, 4,126 (73%) had an HCV RNA or antigen test post-SVR. Of those retested, we identified 361 reinfections (3.9/100 person-years [PY]). The reinfection rate increased from 1.5/100 PY among PWID treated in 2000-2009 to 8.8/100 PY in 2017-2018. The highest reinfection rates were observed among those treated in prison (14.3/100 PY) and community settings (9.5/100 PY). Among those treated in the DAA era (2015-2018), 68% were tested within the first year post-SVR but only 30% in the second year; while 169 reinfections were diagnosed in follow-up, an estimated 200 reinfections (54% of the estimated total) had gone undetected. CONCLUSIONS: HCV reinfection rates among PWID in Scotland have risen alongside the scale-up of DAAs and broadened access to treatment for those at highest risk, through delivery in community drug services. Promotion of HCV testing post-SVR among PWID is essential to ensure those reinfected are identified and retreated promptly. LAY SUMMARY: Increased rates of hepatitis C reinfection in Scotland were observed following the rapid scale-up of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments among people who inject drugs. This demonstrates that community-based treatment pathways are reaching high-risk groups, regarded vital in efforts to eliminate the virus. However, we estimate that less than half of reinfections have been detected in the DAA era because of inadequate levels of retesting beyond the first year following successful treatment. Sustained efforts that involve high coverage of harm reduction measures and high uptake of annual testing are required to ensure prompt diagnosis and treatment of those reinfected if the goals of elimination are to be met.

Comparing Predicted Probability of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Cirrhosis With the General Population: An Opportunity to Improve Risk Communication?

INTRODUCTION: Risk scores estimating a patient's probability of a hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) diagnosis are abundant but are difficult to interpret in isolation. We compared the predicted HCC probability for individuals with cirrhosis and cured hepatitis C with the general population (GP). METHODS: All patients with cirrhosis achieving sustained viral response (SVR) in Scotland by April 2018 were included (N = 1,803). The predicted 3-year probability of HCC at time of SVR achievement was determined using the aMAP prognostic model. GP data on the total number of incident HCCs in Scotland, stratified by demographics, were obtained from Public Health Scotland. Predicted HCC risk of cirrhosis SVR patients was compared with GP incidence using 2 metrics: (i) incidence ratio: i.e., 3-year predicted probability for a given patient divided by the 3-year probability in GP for the equivalent demographic group and (ii) absolute risk difference: the 3-year predicted probability minus the 3-year probability in the GP. RESULTS: The mean predicted 3-year HCC probability among cirrhosis SVR patients was 3.64% (range: 0.012%-36.12%). Conversely, the 3-year HCC probability in the GP was much lower, ranging from <0.0001% to 0.25% depending on demographics. The mean incidence ratio was 410, ranging from 5 to >10,000. The mean absolute risk difference was 3.61%, ranging from 0.012% to 35.9%. An online HCC-GP comparison calculator for use by patients/clinicians is available at https://thrive-svr.shinyapps.io/RShiny/ . DISCUSSION: Comparing a patient's predicted HCC probability with the GP is feasible and may help clinicians communicate risk information and encourage screening uptake.

Declining incidence of hepatitis C related hepatocellular carcinoma in the era of interferon-free therapies: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The impact of interferon (IFN)-free therapies on the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not well understood at a population level. Our goal was to bridge this evidence gap. METHODS: This study included all patients in Scotland with chronic HCV and a diagnosis of cirrhosis during 1999-2019. Incident cases of HCC, episodes of curative HCC therapy, and HCC-related deaths were identified through linkage to nationwide registries. Three time periods were examined: 1999-2010 (pegylated interferon-ribavirin [PIR]); 2011-2013 (First-generation DAA); and 2014-2019 (IFN-free era). We used regression modelling to determine time trends for (i) number diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis, (ii) HCC cumulative incidence, (iii) HCC curative treatment uptake and (iv) post-HCC mortality. RESULTS: 3347 cirrhosis patients were identified of which 381 (11.4%) developed HCC. After HCC diagnosis, 140 (36.7%) received curative HCC treatment and there were 202 deaths from HCC. The average annual number of patients diagnosed and living with HCV cirrhosis was approximately seven times higher in the IFN-free versus the PIR era, whereas the number of incident HCCs was four times higher. However, the cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in the IFN-free versus PIR era (sdHR: 0.65; 95%CI:0.47-0.88; P = .006). Among HCC patients, diagnosis in the IFN-free era was not associated with improved uptake of curative treatment (aOR:1.18; 95%CI:0.69-2.01; P = .54), or reduced post-HCC mortality (sdHR: 0.74; 95%CI:0.53-1.05; P = .09). CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative incidence of HCC is declining in HCV cirrhosis patients, but uptake of curative HCC therapy and post-HCC survival remains suboptimal.

Sex differences in COVID-19 mortality in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: Since the first reports of COVID-19 cases, sex-discrepancies have been reported in COVID-19 mortality. We provide a detailed description of these sex differences in relation to age and comorbidities among notified cases as well as in relation to age and sex-specific mortality in the general Dutch population. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 cases and mortality until May 31st 2020 was extracted from the national surveillance database with exclusion of healthcare workers. Association between sex and case fatality was analyzed with multivariable logistic regression. Subsequently, male-female ratio in standardized mortality ratios and population mortality rates relative to all-cause and infectious disease-specific mortality were computed stratified by age. RESULTS: Male-female odds ratio for case fatality was 1.33 [95% CI 1.26-1.41] and among hospitalized cases 1.27 [95% CI 1.16-1.40]. This remained significant after adjustment for age and comorbidities. The male-female ratio of the standardized mortality ratio was 1.70 [95%CI 1.62-1.78]. The population mortality rate for COVID-19 was 35.1 per 100.000, with a male-female rate ratio of 1.25 (95% CI 1.18-1.31) which was higher than in all-cause population mortality and infectious disease mortality. CONCLUSION: Our study confirms male sex is a predisposing factor for severe outcomes of COVID-19, independent of age and comorbidities. In addition to general male-female-differences, COVID-19 specific mechanisms likely contribute to this mortality discrepancy.

The estimated disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020, in disability-adjusted life-years.

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.

Blood Biomarkers and 6- to 7-Year Childhood Outcomes Following Neonatal Encephalopathy.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to profile the cytokine/chemokine response from day 0 to 7 in infants (≥36 weeks of gestational age) with neonatal encephalopathy (NE) and to explore the association with long-term outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: This was a secondary study of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network randomized controlled trial of whole body hypothermia for NE. Eligible infants with moderate-severe NE were randomized to cooling or normothermia. Blood spots were collected on days 0 to 1, 2 to 4, and 6 to 7. Twenty-four cytokines/chemokines were measured using a multiplex platform. Surviving infants underwent neurodevelopmental assessment at 6 to 7 years. Primary outcome was death or moderate-severe impairment defined by any of the following: intelligence quotient <70, moderate-severe cerebral palsy (CP), blindness, hearing impairment, or epilepsy. RESULTS: Cytokine blood spots were collected from 109 participants. In total 99 of 109 (91%) were assessed at 6 to 7 years; 54 of 99 (55%) developed death/impairment. Neonates who died or were impaired had lower early regulated upon activation normal T cell expressed and secreted (RANTES) and higher day 7 monocyte chemotactic protein (MCP)-1 levels than neonates who survived without impairment. Though TNF-α levels had no association with death/impairment, higher day 0 to 1 levels were observed among neonates who died/developed CP. On multiple regression analysis adjusted for center, treatment group, sex, race, and level of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy, higher RANTES was inversely associated with death/impairment (odds ratio (OR): 0.31, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13-0.74), while day seven MCP-1 level was directly associated with death/impairment (OR: 3.70, 95% CI: 1.42-9.61). Targeted cytokine/chemokine levels demonstrated little variation with hypothermia treatment. CONCLUSION: RANTES and MCP-1 levels in the first week of life may provide potential targets for future therapies among neonates with encephalopathy. KEY POINTS: · Elevation of specific cytokines and chemokines in neonates with encephalopathy has been noted along with increased risk of neurodevelopmental impairment in infancy.. · Cytokine/chemokines at <7 days were assessed among neonates in a trial of hypothermia for HIE.. · Neonates who died or were impaired at 6 to 7 years following hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy had lower RANTES and higher MCP-1 levels than those who survived without impairment..

Uptake of interferon-free DAA therapy among HCV-infected decompensated cirrhosis patients and evidence for decreased mortality.

Interferon-free DAA therapies have recently been licensed for patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have decompensated cirrhosis (DC). Our aim was to describe factors associated with uptake of IFN-free DAAs in DC patients and to compare mortality risk and hospital admission rates between pre-DAA and DAA eras. This observational study used record-linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and national inpatient hospitalization and mortality registers. For the DAA uptake analysis, the study population (n = 297) was restricted to patients alive on 1 November 2014, and Cox regression was used to estimate uptake associated with various covariates. For the Cox regression of mortality comparing pre-DAA and DAA eras, the study population (n = 624) comprised those diagnosed with DC in 2005-2018; follow-up was censored at two years. DAA uptake was 63% overall and was significantly higher for treatment-experienced patients (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.64, 95% CI:1.14-2.34), genotype 1 vs. other genotypes (aHR = 1.55. 95% CI:1.15-2.10) and lower for persons diagnosed with DC pre-2014 (0.47, 95% CI:0.33-0.68) and in Greater Glasgow (0.64, 95% CI:0.47-0.88). The intention-to-treat SVR rate was 89% (95% CI:83-93%). All-cause and liver-related mortality risk were significantly reduced among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era (November 2014-December 2018) compared with the pre-DAA era (2005-October 2014) (aHRs of 0.68, 95% CI:0.49-0.93; 0.69, 95% CI:0.50-0.95, respectively); in contrast, hospital admission rates were higher in the DAA era (aRR = 1.14, 95% CI:1.04-1.26). The majority of HCV-infected DC patients engaged with specialist services can be treated with IFN-free DAAs. Improved survival among patients diagnosed with DC in the DAA era supports the beneficial impact of IFN-free therapies among those with advanced liver disease.

European data sources for computing burden of (potential) vaccine-preventable diseases in ageing adults.

BACKGROUND: To guide decision-making on immunisation programmes for ageing adults in Europe, one of the aims of the Vaccines and InfecTious diseases in the Ageing popuLation (IMI2-VITAL) project is to assess the burden of disease (BoD) of (potentially) vaccine-preventable diseases ((P)VPD). We aimed to identify the available data sources to calculate the BoD of (P)VPD in participating VITAL countries and to pinpoint data gaps. Based on epidemiological criteria and vaccine availability, we prioritized (P) VPD caused by Extra-intestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC), norovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, Staphylococcus aureus, and pneumococcal pneumonia. METHODS: We conducted a survey on available data (e.g. incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), sequelae, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), etc.) among national experts from European countries, and carried out five pathogen-specific literature reviews by searching MEDLINE for peer-reviewed publications published between 2009 and 2019. RESULTS: Morbidity and mortality data were generally available for all five diseases, while summary BoD estimates were mostly lacking. Available data were not always stratified by age and risk group, which is especially important when calculating BoD for ageing adults. AMR data were available in several countries for S. aureus and ExPEC. CONCLUSION: This study provides an exhaustive overview of the available data sources and data gaps for the estimation of BoD of five (P) VPD in ageing adults in the EU/EAA, which is useful to guide pathogen-specific BoD studies and contribute to calculation of (P)VPDs BoD.

Risk factors associated with the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness: data from a web-based syndromic surveillance system in the Netherlands.

During the first wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 epidemic in the Netherlands, notifications consisted mostly of patients with relatively severe disease. To enable real-time monitoring of the incidence of mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - for which medical consultation might not be required - the Infectieradar web-based syndromic surveillance system was launched in mid-March 2020. Our aim was to quantify associations between Infectieradar participant characteristics and the incidence of self-reported COVID-19-like illness. Recruitment for this cohort study was via a web announcement. After registering, participants completed weekly questionnaires, reporting the occurrence of a set of symptoms. The incidence rate of COVID-19-like illness was estimated and multivariable Poisson regression used to estimate the relative risks associated with sociodemographic variables, lifestyle factors and pre-existing medical conditions. Between 17 March and 24 May 2020, 25 663 active participants were identified, who reported 7060 episodes of COVID-19-like illness over 131 404 person-weeks of follow-up. The incidence rate declined over the analysis period, consistent with the decline in notified cases. Male sex, age 65+ years and higher education were associated with a significantly lower COVID-19-like illness incidence rate (adjusted rate ratios (RRs) of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84), 0.77 (0.70-0.85), 0.84 (0.80-0.88), respectively) and the baseline characteristics ever-smoker, asthma, allergies, diabetes, chronic lung disease, cardiovascular disease and children in the household were associated with a higher incidence (RRs of 1.11 (1.04-1.19) to 1.69 (1.50-1.90)). Web-based syndromic surveillance has proven useful for monitoring the temporal trends in, and risk factors associated with, the incidence of mild disease. Increased relative risks observed for several patient factors could reflect a combination of exposure risk, susceptibility to infection and propensity to report symptoms.

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 positive persons who are asymptomatic-and whether this proportion is age-dependent-are still open research questions. Because an unknown proportion of reported symptoms among SARS-CoV-2 positives will be attributable to another infection or affliction, the observed, or 'crude' proportion without symptoms may underestimate the proportion of persons without symptoms that are caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Based on two rounds of a large population-based serological study comprising test results on seropositivity and self-reported symptom history conducted in April/May and June/July 2020 in the Netherlands (n = 7517), we estimated the proportion of reported symptoms among those persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 that is attributable to this infection, where the set of relevant symptoms fulfills the ECDC case definition of COVID-19, using inferential methods for the attributable risk (AR). Generalised additive regression modelling was used to estimate the age-dependent relative risk (RR) of reported symptoms, and the AR and asymptomatic proportion (AP) were calculated from the fitted RR. RESULTS: Using age-aggregated data, the 'crude' AP was 37% but the model-estimated AP was 65% (95% CI 63-68%). The estimated AP varied with age, from 74% (95% CI 65-90%) for < 20 years, to 61% (95% CI 57-65%) for the 50-59 years age-group. CONCLUSION: Whereas the 'crude' AP represents a lower bound for the proportion of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 without COVID-19 symptoms, the AP as estimated via an attributable risk approach represents an upper bound. Age-specific AP estimates can inform the implementation of public health actions such as targetted virological testing and therefore enhance containment strategies.

Population impact of direct-acting antiviral treatment on new presentations of hepatitis C-related decompensated cirrhosis: a national record-linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: Population-based studies demonstrating the clinical impact of interferon-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are lacking. We examined the impact of the introduction of DAAs on HCV-related decompensated cirrhosis (DC) through analysis of population-based data from Scotland. DESIGN: Through analysis of national surveillance data (involving linkage of HCV diagnosis and clinical databases to hospital and deaths registers), we determined i) the scale-up in the number of patients treated and achieving a sustained viral response (SVR), and ii) the change in the trend of new presentations with HCV-related DC, with the introduction of DAAs. RESULTS: Approximately 11 000 patients had been treated in Scotland over the 8-year period 2010/11 to 2017/18. The scale-up in the number of patients achieving SVR between the pre-DAA and DAA eras was 2.3-fold overall and 5.9-fold among those with compensated cirrhosis (the group at immediate risk of developing DC). In the pre-DAA era, the annual number of HCV-related DC presentations increased 4.6-fold between 2000 (30) and 2014 (142). In the DAA era, presentations decreased by 51% to 69 in 2018 (and by 67% among those with chronic infection at presentation), representing a significant change in trend (rate ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.90). With the introduction of DAAs, an estimated 330 DC cases had been averted during 2015-18. CONCLUSIONS: National scale-up in interferon-free DAA treatment is associated with the rapid downturn in presentations of HCV-related DC at the population-level. Major progress in averting HCV-related DC in the short-term is feasible, and thus other countries should strive to achieve the same.

Real-world utility of HCV core antigen as an alternative to HCV RNA testing: Implications for viral load and genotype.

Following positive serology, the gold standard confirmatory test of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is detection of HCV RNA by PCR. We assessed the utility of HCV core antigen testing to identify active infection among those positive for anti-HCV antibodies, when introduced to routine testing. We identified serum samples that were tested at a single laboratory in Scotland from June 2011to December 2017. Serum samples testing positive for HCV antibodies (HCV Ab positive) followed by reflex HCV core antigen (Ag) testing during the study period were identified. Those patients for whom a PCR test was requested on the baseline sample were also identified. For this group, the sensitivity and specificity of HCV Ag as a diagnostic tool were assessed using HCV PCR as gold standard. In our cohort of 744 patients, we demonstrated a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI 77.1%-86.2%) and a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 98.6%-100%). Genotype 3 was associated with increased odds of a false-negative result (OR = 3.59, 95% CI: 1.32-9.71), and reduced odds of a false negative were associated with older age (odds ratio (OR)=0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97 per year) and viral load (OR = 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.21 per log10 IU/ml). While the implementation of HCV core antigen testing for diagnosis could lead to significant cost savings in national screening programmes, our data suggest that a significant proportion of HCV-infected individuals may be missed. These findings have implications for HCV diagnosis and determination of viral clearance after treatment, particularly in low- and middle-income regions, where genotype 3 is prevalent.

Real-world impact following initiation of interferon-free hepatitis C regimens on liver-related outcomes and all-cause mortality among patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Few studies have investigated clinical outcomes among patients with cirrhosis who were treated with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antiviral (DAA). We aimed to quantify treatment impact on first decompensated cirrhosis hospital admission, first hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) admission, liver-related mortality and all-cause mortality among a national cohort of cirrhotic patients. Through record linkage between Scotland's HCV Clinical Database and inpatient/day-case hospitalization and deaths records, a study population comprising chronic HCV-infected patients with compensated cirrhosis and initiated on IFN-free DAA between 1 March 2013 and 31 March 2018 was analysed. Cox regression evaluated the association of each clinical outcome with time-dependent treatment status (on treatment, responder, nonresponder or noncompliant), adjusting for patient factors including Child-Pugh class. Among the study population (n = 1073) involving 1809 years of follow-up, 75 (7.0%) died (39 from liver-related causes), 47 progressed to decompensated cirrhosis, and 28 developed HCC. Compared with nonresponders, treatment response (96% among those attending their 12 weeks post-treatment SVR test) was associated with a reduced relative risk of decompensated cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.05-0.39), HCC (HR = 0.17; 95% CI: 0.04-0.79), liver-related death (HR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05-0.34) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.12-0.76). Compared with responders, noncompliant patients had an increased risk of liver-related (HR = 6.73; 95% CI: 2.99-15.1) and all-cause (HR = 5.45; 95% CI: 3.07-9.68) mortality. For HCV patients with cirrhosis, a treatment response was associated with a lower risk of severe liver complications and improved survival. Our findings suggest additional effort is warranted to address the higher mortality among the minority of cirrhotic patients who do not comply with DAA treatment or associated RNA testing.

Adjusting for comorbidity in incidence-based DALY calculations: an individual-based modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: The co-occurrence of two or more medical conditions in the same individual is not uncommon. If disability-adjusted life year (DALY) calculations are carried out for each condition separately, multimorbidity may lead to an overestimation of the morbidity component, the Years Lived with Disability (YLD). Adjusting for comorbidity may be straightforward if all symptoms have same onset and duration; however, when the comorbid health states occur at different time points, an analytical solution to the comorbidity problem becomes more complex. The aim of this study was to develop an individual-based modelling (IBM) approach to adjust incidence-based disease burden estimation for multimorbidity that allows simulating hypothetical individuals and tracking their disease history, including possible comorbidities, over time. METHODS: We demonstrated the IBM approach using an example of external comorbidity, i.e., colon cancer comorbid with healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP) and by assuming an independent multiplicative model. First, each cumulative progression probabilities were converted to a daily transition probabilities. Second, disability weights for simultaneously experienced health states and duration in each health state were determined. Third, YLD, adjusted for comorbidity, was calculated at every time step. We simulated a cohort of 1000 colorectal cancer patients aged 65 years. Ninety-five percent uncertainty intervals around median YLD values were estimated by Monte Carlo methods. RESULTS: The median estimated YLD per 1000 cases (due to both cancer and HAP) adjusted for co-morbidity was 545 YLD/1000 (95% interval: 513-585). The impact of not adjusting disability weights for co-existent health states varied from minimal to small; YLD for colorectal cancer would be overestimated only slightly - by 1.6 YLD/1000 - by not adjusting for concurrent HAP. YLD for those HAP patients who have concurrent early-stage colorectal cancer would be overestimated by 2.3 YLD/1000. CONCLUSIONS: The computation of disease burden in the presence of multimorbidity using the incidence-based DALY approach can be handled through IBM. Our approach can be extended to other, more complicated multimorbidity scenarios which are responsible for a high current global disease burden, such as tuberculosis and HIV infection.

Estimating the Population Size of People Who Inject Drugs in Malaysia for 2014 and 2017 Using the Benchmark-Multiplier Method.

Background: As hepatitis C elimination efforts are launched, national strategies for screening and treatment scale-up in countries, such as Malaysia, must be designed and implemented. Strategic information, including estimates of the total number of patients chronically-infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the size of key populations, such as people who inject drugs (PWID), is critical to informing these efforts. For Malaysia, the estimate of the PWID population size most frequently reported in global systematic reviews is for the year 2009. Objectives: To support ongoing national HCV planning efforts, we aimed to estimate the national population size of active PWID in Malaysia, for the years 2014 and 2017. Methods: To estimate the PWID population size, we applied standard benchmark-multiplier methodology, frequently used for PWID population size estimation, and extended it by adjusting for cessation of injecting drug use within the benchmark and calculating statistical uncertainty intervals. Results: The estimated active PWID population size was 153,000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 136,000-172,000) for 2014 and 156,000 (95% UI: 137,000-188,000) for 2017. Conclusions/importance: This updated estimate of the active PWID population size in Malaysia will help inform effective planning for the scale-up of HCV screening and treatment services. The proposed methodology is applicable to other countries that maintain national HIV registries and have conducted Integrated Biological and Behavioral Surveys among active PWID.