Validation of physician certified verbal autopsy using conventional autopsy: a large study of adult non-external causes of death in a metropolitan area in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard. METHODS: The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level. RESULTS: There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49. CONCLUSIONS: The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.

Estimating causes of out-of-hospital deaths in China: application of SmartVA methods.

BACKGROUND: Most deaths in China occur at home, making it difficult to collect reliable cause of death (CoD) information. Verbal autopsy (VA) was applied using the SmartVA tool to a sample of home deaths in China to explore its feasibility as a means of improving the quality of CoD data. METHODS: The study was carried out in 22 districts in 9 provinces, located in north-east, central, and western areas of China during 2017 and 2018. Trained interviewers selected suitable respondents in each household to collect information using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened and validated electronic VA questionnaire on tablets. The CoD was diagnosed from the interview data using the SmartVA-Analyze 2.0 software (Tariff 2.0). RESULTS: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) dominated the leading causes of death in all age groups and for both sexes. After redistribution of undetermined causes, stroke (24%), ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (21%), chronic respiratory diseases (11%), and lung cancer (6%) were the leading causes of death. The cause fractions for level-one cause categories and ranking of specific causes were similar between SmartVA and results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. CONCLUSION: Evidence from this large pilot study suggests that SmartVA is a feasible and plausible tool and could be a valuable tool to improve the quality and standardization of CoD information across China.

Generating cause of death information to inform health policy: implementation of an automated verbal autopsy system in the Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Good quality cause of death (COD) information is fundamental for formulating and evaluating public health policy; yet most deaths in developing countries, including the Solomon Islands, occur at home without medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD). As a result, COD data in such contexts are often of limited use for policy and planning. Verbal autopsies (VAs) are a cost-effective way of generating reliable COD information in populations lacking comprehensive MCCOD coverage, but this method has not previously been applied in the Solomon Islands. This study describes the establishment of a VA system to estimate the cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for community deaths that are not medically certified in the Solomon Islands. METHODS: Automated VA methods (SmartVA) were introduced into the Solomon Islands in 2016. Trained data collectors (nurses) conducted VAs on eligible deaths to December 2020 using electronic tablet devices and VA responses were analysed using the Tariff 2.0 automated diagnostic algorithm. CSMFs were generated for both non-inpatient deaths in hospitals (i.e. 'dead on/by arrival') and community deaths. RESULTS: VA was applied to 914 adolescent-and-adult deaths with a median (IQR) age of 62 (45-75) years, 61% of whom were males. A specific COD could be diagnosed for more than 85% of deaths. The leading causes of death for both sexes combined were: ischemic heart disease (16.3%), stroke (13.5%), diabetes (8.1%), pneumonia (5.7%) and chronic-respiratory disease (4.8%). Stroke was the top-ranked cause for females, and ischaemic heart disease the leading cause for males. The CSMFs from the VAs were similar to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates. Overall, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) accounted for 73% of adult deaths; communicable, maternal and nutritional conditions 15%, and injuries 12%. Six of the ten leading causes reported for facility deaths in the Solomon Islands were also identified as leading causes of community deaths based on the VA diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: NCDs are the leading cause of adult deaths in the Solomon Islands. Automated VA methods are an effective means of generating reliable COD information for community deaths in the Solomon Islands and should be routinely incorporated into the national mortality surveillance system.

Reducing ignorance about who dies of what: research and innovation to strengthen CRVS systems.

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) agenda offers a major impetus to consolidate and accelerate development in civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Strengthening CRVS systems is an SDG outcome in itself. Moreover, CRVS systems are the best - if not essential - source of data to monitor and guide health policy debates and to assess progress towards numerous SDG targets and indicators. They also provide the necessary documentation and proof of identity for service access and are critical for disaster preparedness and response. While there has been impressive global momentum to improve CRVS systems over the past decade, several challenges remain. This article collection provides an overview of recent innovations, progress, viewpoints and key areas in which action is still required - notably around the need for better systems and procedures to notify the fact of death and to reliably diagnose its cause, both for deaths in hospital and elsewhere.

Addressing critical knowledge and capacity gaps to sustain CRVS system development.

BACKGROUND: Improving civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems requires strengthening the capacity of the CRVS workforce. The improvement of data collection and diagnostic practices must be accompanied by efforts to ensure that the workforce has the skills and knowledge to assess the quality of, and analyse, CRVS data using demographic and epidemiological techniques. While longer-term measures to improve data collection practices must continue to be implemented, it is important to build capacity in the cautious use of imperfect data. However, a lack of training programmes, guidelines and tools make capacity shortages a common issue in CRVS systems. As such, any strategy to build capacity should be underpinned by (1) a repository of knowledge and body of evidence on CRVS, and (2) targeted strategies to train the CRVS workforce. MAIN TEXT: During the 4 years of the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne, an extensive repository of knowledge and practical tools to support CRVS system improvements was developed for use by various audiences and stakeholders (the 'CRVS Knowledge Gateway'). Complementing this has been a targeted strategy to build CRVS capacity in countries that comprised two approaches - in-country or regional training and a visiting Fellowship Program. These approaches address the need to build competence in countries to collect, analyse and effectively use good quality birth and death data, and a longer-term need to ensure that local staff in countries possess the comprehensive knowledge of CRVS strategies and practices necessary to ensure sustainable CRVS development. CONCLUSION: The Knowledge Gateway is a dynamic, useful and long-lasting repository of CRVS knowledge for countries and development partners to use to formulate and evaluate CRVS development strategies. Capacity-building through in-country or regional training and the University of Melbourne D4H Fellowship Program will ensure that CRVS capacity and knowledge is developed and maintained, facilitating improvements in CRVS data systems that can be used by policymakers to support better decision-making in health.

Effectiveness of training interventions to improve quality of medical certification of cause of death: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Valid cause of death data are essential for health policy formation. The quality of medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD) by physicians directly affects the utility of cause of death data for public policy and hospital management. Whilst training in correct certification has been provided for physicians and medical students, the impact of training is often unknown. This study was conducted to systematically review and meta-analyse the effectiveness of training interventions to improve the quality of MCCOD. METHODS: This review was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; Registration ID: CRD42020172547) and followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE and Ovid EMBASE databases were searched using pre-defined search strategies covering the eligibility criteria. Studies were selected using four screening questions using the Distiller-SR software. Risk of bias assessments were conducted with GRADE recommendations and ROBINS-I criteria for randomised and non-randomised interventions, respectively. Study selection, data extraction and bias assessments were performed independently by two reviewers with a third reviewer to resolve conflicts. Clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity assessments were conducted. Meta-analyses were performed with Review Manager 5.4 software using the 'generic inverse variance method' with risk difference as the pooled estimate. A 'summary of findings' table was prepared using the 'GRADEproGDT' online tool. Sensitivity analyses and narrative synthesis of the findings were also performed. RESULTS: After de-duplication, 616 articles were identified and 21 subsequently selected for synthesis of findings; four underwent meta-analysis. The meta-analyses indicated that selected training interventions significantly reduced error rates among participants, with pooled risk differences of 15-33%. Robustness was identified with the sensitivity analyses. The findings of the narrative synthesis were similarly suggestive of favourable outcomes for both physicians and medical trainees. CONCLUSIONS: Training physicians in correct certification improves the accuracy and policy utility of cause of death data. Investment in MCCOD training activities should be considered as a key component of strategies to improve vital registration systems given the potential of such training to substantially improve the quality of cause of death data.

Improving medical certification of cause of death: effective strategies and approaches based on experiences from the Data for Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely cause of death (COD) data are essential for informed public health policymaking. Medical certification of COD generally provides the majority of COD data in a population and is an essential component of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Accurate completion of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCOD) should be a relatively straightforward procedure for physicians, but mistakes are common. Here, we present three training strategies implemented in five countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne (UoM) and evaluate the impact on the quality of certification. METHODS: The three training strategies evaluated were (1) training of trainers (TOT) in the Philippines, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka; (2) direct training of physicians by the UoM D4H in Papua New Guinea (PNG); and (3) the implementation of an online and basic training strategy in Peru. The evaluation involved an assessment of MCCODs before and after training using an assessment tool developed by the University of Melbourne. RESULTS: The TOT strategy led to reductions in incorrectly completed certificates of between 28% in Sri Lanka and 40% in the Philippines. Following direct training of physicians in PNG, the reduction in incorrectly completed certificates was 30%. In Peru, the reduction in incorrect certificates was 30% after implementation and training on an online system only and 43% after training on both the online system and basic medical certification principles. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that a variety of training strategies can produce benefits in the quality of certification, but further improvements are possible. The experiences of D4H suggest several aspects of the strategies that should be further developed to improve outcomes, particularly key stakeholder engagement from early in the intervention and local committees to oversee activities and support an improved culture in hospitals to support better diagnostic skills and practices.

Consent to data linkage in a large online epidemiological survey of 18-23 year old Australian women in 2012-13.

BACKGROUND: Consent to link survey data with health-related administrative datasets is increasingly being sought but little is known about the influence of recruiting via online technologies on participants' consents. The goal of this paper is to examine what factors (sociodemographic, recruitment, incentives, data linkage information, health) are associated with opt-in consent to link online survey data to administrative datasets (referred to as consent to data linkage). METHODS: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a prospective study of factors affecting the health and well-being of women. We report on factors associated with opt-in consent to data linkage at the end of an online survey of a new cohort of 18-23 year old Australian women recruited in 2012-13. Classification and Regression Tree analysis with decision trees was used to predict consent. RESULTS: In this study 69% consented to data linkage. The provision of residential address by the individual, or not (as a measure of attitudes towards privacy), was the most important factor in classifying the data into similar groups of consenters (76% consenters versus 47% respectively). Thereafter, for those who did not provide their residential address, the incentives and data linkage information that was offered was the next most important factor, with incentive 2: limited-edition designer leggings and additional information about confidentiality showing increases in consent rates over Incentive 1: AUD50 gift voucher: 60% versus 37%. CONCLUSIONS: In young Australian women, attitudes towards privacy was strongly associated with consenting to data linkage. Providing additional details about data confidentiality was successful in increasing consent and so was cohort appropriate incentives. Ensuring that prospective participants understand the consent and privacy protocols in place to protect their confidential information builds confidence in consenting to data linkage.

Inequalities in long term health-related quality of life between partnered and not partnered breast cancer survivors through the mediation effect of social support.

OBJECTIVE: To compare long-term quality of life outcomes by marital status among women living with breast cancer, and to test the mediation effects of social support as an underlying factor. METHODS: Data are drawn from 1996 to 2010 of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The sample included 505 women with breast cancer with six years of follow-up data. Social support was measured by the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS-SSS). Physical and mental health-related quality of life (HRQOL) was measured using the Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36). RESULTS: Breast cancer survivors who did not have a partner, compared to those who had a partner, had significantly lower levels of social support, which was associated with poorer HRQOL. Social support mediated the relationship between not having a partner and poorer HRQOL. Results were consistent after taken into consideration socio-demographic characteristics, which included age, highest level of education, country of birth, and area of residence. CONCLUSIONS: Women recovering from breast cancer who do not have partners have poorer physical and mental HRQOL, than those with partners, with a lack of social support as an underlying inequality. Partners of breast cancer survivors are importance sources in the provision of social support to help them maintain well-being and quality of life. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Psychological distress, optimism and general health in breast cancer survivors: a data linkage study using the Scottish Health Survey.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study is to examine the association between optimism and psychological distress in women with breast cancer after taking into account their self-rated general health. METHODS: Data were aggregated from the Scottish Health Survey (2008 to 2011) to derive a nationally representative sample of 12,255 women (11,960 cancer-free controls, and 295 breast cancer cases identified from linked cancer registry data). The explanatory variables were optimism and general health, and the outcome variable was symptoms of psychological distress. Logistic regression analyses were conducted, with optimism entered in step 1 and general health entered in step 2. RESULTS: In an unadjusted model, higher levels of optimism were associated with lower odds of psychological distress in both the control group (OR = 0. 57, 95 % CI = 0.51-0.60) and breast cancer group (OR = 0. 64, 95 % CI = 0.47-0.88). However, in a model adjusting for general health, optimism was associated with lower odds of psychological distress only in the control group (OR = 0.50, 95 % CI = 0.44-0.57), but not significantly in the breast cancer group (OR = 1.15, 95 % CI = 0.32-4.11). In the breast cancer group, poor general health was a stronger associate of psychological distress (OR = 4. 98, 95 % CI = 1.32-18.75). Results were consistent after adjusting for age, years since breast cancer diagnosis, survey year, socioeconomic status, education, marital status, body mass index, smoking status, and alcohol consumption. CONCLUSION: This research confirms the value of multicomponent supportive care interventions for women with breast cancer. Specifically, it suggests that following breast cancer diagnosis, health care professionals need to provide advice and signpost to services that assist women to maintain or improve both their psychological and general health.

Moderating effects of social engagement on driving cessation in older women.

BACKGROUND: Driving cessation in later life is associated with depression. This study examines if social support can buffer the negative effects of driving cessation on older women's mental health. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the 1921-1926 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) and included 4,075 older women (aged 76-87 years) who drove at baseline, following them for three years to assess driving cessation. The outcome variable was mental health, measured by the mental health index (MHI) of the SF-36. The explanatory variables were social support factors, including social interaction, whether the women were living alone or with others, and engagement in social activities. Control variables included age, country of birth, area of residence, ability to manage on income, marital status, and general health. RESULTS: Main effect results showed that poor mental health was predicted by driving cessation, low levels of social interaction, and non-engagement in social activities. There was a significant interaction effect of driving status by social activities engagement on mental health. Women who remained active in their engagement of social activities were able to maintain a good level of mental health despite driving cessation. CONCLUSION: Engagement and participation in social activities can help older women who stopped driving maintain a good level of mental health.

"Everybody Knows Everybody Else's Business"-Privacy in Rural Communities.

Patients have a right to privacy in a health care setting. This involves conversational discretion, security of medical records and physical privacy of remaining unnoticed or unidentified when using health care services other than by those who need to know or whom the patient wishes to know. However, the privacy of cancer patients who live in rural areas is more difficult to protect due to the characteristics of rural communities. The purpose of this article is to reflect on concerns relating to the lack of privacy experienced by cancer patients and health care professionals in the rural health care setting. In addition, this article suggests future research directions to provide much needed evidence for educating health care providers and guiding health care policies that can lead to better protection of privacy among cancer patients living in rural communities.

Rural-urban disparities in stage of breast cancer at diagnosis in Australian women.

OBJECTIVE: To examine urban-rural differences and individual risk factors for a late stage of breast cancer at diagnosis in Australian women. DESIGN: Individual-level longitudinal data were linked with cancer registry data from New South Wales (New South Wales Cancer Registry linked by the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL)), Queensland (Queensland Cancer Registry) and Victoria (The Cancer Council Victoria). SETTING: Participants were drawn from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health 1946-1951 cohort (n = 13 715). PARTICIPANTS: The sample included 195 women identified from the linked cancer registry data with a breast cancer diagnosis. INTERVENTIONS: Rural or urban residence was measured using Accessibility/Remoteness Index of Australia Plus (ARIA+). Individual characteristics and socio-demographic variables examined included survey year, menopausal status, country of birth, education and marital status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A late stage of breast cancer at diagnosis was defined based on the TNM Classification of Malignant Tumours. RESULTS: A late stage of breast cancer diagnosis was observed in 36% of women residing in urban areas and 40% of women residing in rural areas. After adjusting for individual characteristics, we found that obesity was the strongest risk factor for a late stage of breast cancer at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Given that women are becoming increasingly obese, and that the rate of obesity is higher in the Australian rural population, this paper provides further evidence for targeting interventions for obesity, particularly in rural Australia, as a public health priority.

Trauma exposure and the subsequent risk of coronary heart disease among mid-aged women.

The objective of the current study was to examine whether exposure to trauma in the form of a history of physical, mental, emotional or sexual abuse or violence predicted new onset of coronary heart disease (CHD) in women. In addition, this study aimed to examine the mediation effects of psychological, lifestyle and health related factors in the abuse-CHD relationship. Data from 6 surveys over 15 years, from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a large prospective cohort study, were used. Participants from the 1946-1951 cohort who did not self-report heart disease at surveys 1 (1996) and 2 (1998) and who had provided information on other variables were included (n = 9,276). After adjusting for age, women who reported trauma exposure at baseline were 1.54 times more likely (95% confidence interval 1.29-1.83) to report new onset of CHD than those who did not report trauma exposure. The association between trauma and CHD was largely explained by psychological factors, suggesting a direct pathway between exposure to trauma and risk of CHD.

Social support and health-related quality of life in women with breast cancer: a longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: A breast cancer diagnosis is a distressing event that impacts on physical and psychological functioning. This study examined the longitudinal relationships among a diagnosis of breast cancer, social support, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). METHODS: Participants were 412 women from the 1946-1951 birth cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health who self-reported a new diagnosis of breast cancer between 1998 and 2007. The three surveys of longitudinal data analyzed included data 3 years before diagnosis, at diagnosis (baseline), and 3 years after diagnosis (follow-up). Social support was measured using the 19-item Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey; HRQOL was measured using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey. RESULTS: Compared with pre-diagnosis HRQOL, women newly diagnosed with breast cancer reported significantly poorer HRQOL in subscales related to pain, physical functioning, and health and vitality. At 3-year follow-up, HRQOL had improved in most domains to levels consistent with pre-diagnosis. Levels of social support remained stable across time. The structural equation model showed that social support was positively predictive of better physical and mental HRQOL at 3-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal analyses indicate that social support appears to be an important predictor of HRQOL in women diagnosed with breast cancer. In particular, positive emotional and informational support that may normally be provided by a partner is important in maintaining HRQOL. Identification of those lacking social support, especially patients without partners, will enable them to be guided to appropriate support networks and programs.

A history of comorbid depression and anxiety predicts new onset of heart disease.

The objective of the current study was to examine whether a history of comorbid depression and anxiety predicted new onset of heart disease. Data from 6 surveys, spanning 15 years, of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a large prospective cohort study were used, including health status, lifestyle, and sociodemographic measures. Participants of the 1946-1951 cohort who did not self-report heart disease at surveys 1 (1996) and 2 (1998) were included in the study (n = 11,828). After adjusting for health status, lifestyle and sociodemographic factors, a history of comorbid depression and anxiety (odds ratio (OR) = 1.78; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.41-2.24) was associated with new onset of heart disease. A history of comorbid depression and anxiety is an important predictor of new onset of heart disease in mid-aged women. Due to the possible detrimental consequences of heart disease, psychological factors as well as established predictors should be considered when assessing a person's risk for heart disease.

Social support and subsequent disability: it is not the size of your network that counts.

BACKGROUND: high levels of social support and engagement may help sustain good health and functional ability. However, the definition of social support in previous research has been inconsistent and findings are mixed. The aim of this analysis was to explore the effect of two aspects of social support on subsequent disability in a group of community dwelling older women and men. METHODS: data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 2,013) and men (N = 680). Baseline and follow-up data were drawn from the second (1999) and fifth (2008) surveys of the women and the second (2001) and third (2008) surveys of the men. At baseline, social support was measured by the two subscales (social network and subjective support) of the Duke Social Support Index (DSSI). The outcome measure was Activities of Daily Living (ADLs) and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs). RESULTS: overall, social network size was not associated with subsequent disability in either women or men. After adjusting for health status at baseline, lack of satisfaction with social support was associated with greater difficulties in ADLs and IADLs for both women and men. CONCLUSIONS: our results suggest that the provision of social support is insufficient to limit subsequent disability: support provided must be subjectively perceived to be relevant and adequate.

Anxiety and depression in adults in their eighties: do gender differences remain?

BACKGROUND: Women report higher rates of depression and anxiety than men; however, it is uncertain whether this gender difference continues into advanced old age. METHODS: 78 men and 111 women aged 82-87 years from the Men, Women and Ageing Project completed measures of anxiety (Geriatric Anxiety Inventory), depression (Patient Health Questionnaire; PHQ9), general psychological well-being (Mental Health subscale of SF-36), general health (general health item of SF-36) and cognitive status (Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status; TICS). RESULTS: Results revealed no significant gender differences on any of the psychological measures, after controlling for cognitive status, general health and education. CONCLUSION: These results support the proposition that the female predominance in psychological distress diminishes with increasing age. The congruence between men and women may reflect changes in identity associated with age or the effect of decreased emotional valence of some social roles.

Impact of behavioural risk factors on death within 10 years for women and men in their 70s: absolute risk charts.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the absolute risk of death based on the combined effects of sex, age and health behaviours are scarce for elderly people. The aim of this paper is to calculate population based estimates and display them using simple charts that may be useful communication tools for public health authorities, health care providers and policy makers. METHODS: Data were drawn from two concurrent prospective observational cohort studies of community-based older Australian women (N = 7,438) and men (N = 6,053) aged 71 to 79. The outcome measure was death within ten years. The predictor variables were: sex, age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity. RESULTS: Patterns of risks were similar in men and women but absolute risk of death was between 9 percentage points higher in men (17 %) than in women (8 %) in the lowest risk group (aged 71-73 years, never smoked, overweight, physically active and consumed alcohol weekly) and 21 % higher in men (73-74 %) than women (51-52 %) in the highest risk group (aged 77-79 years, normal weight or obese, current smoker, physically inactive and drink alcohol less than weekly). CONCLUSIONS: These absolute risk charts provide a tool for understanding the combined effects of behavioural risk factors for death among older people.

Physical activity and all-cause mortality in older women and men.

BACKGROUND: Regular physical activity is associated with reduced risk of mortality in middle-aged adults; however, associations between physical activity and mortality in older people have been less well studied. The objective of this study was to compare relationships between physical activity and mortality in older women and men. METHODS: The prospective cohort design involved 7080 women aged 70-75 years and 11 668 men aged 65-83 years at baseline, from two Australian cohorts - the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health and the Health in Men Study. Self-reported low, moderate and vigorous intensity physical activity, socio-demographic, behavioural and health characteristics were assessed in relation to all-cause mortality from the National Death Index from 1996 to 2009; the median follow-up of 10.4 (women) and 11.5 (men) years. RESULTS: There were 1807 (25.5%) and 4705 (40.3%) deaths in women and men, respectively. After adjustment for behavioural risk factors, demographic variables and self-reported health at baseline, there was an inverse dose - response relationship between physical activity and all-cause mortality. Compared with women and men who reported no activity, there were statistically significant lower hazard ratios for women who reported any activity and for men who reported activities equivalent to at least 300 metabolic equivalent.min/week. Risk reductions were 30-50% greater in women than in men in every physical activity category. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity is inversely associated with all-cause mortality in older men and women. The relationship is stronger in women than in men, and there are benefits from even low levels of activity.