Arthritis in patients with very early systemic sclerosis: a comprehensive clinical and prognostic analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Arthritis is associated with a worse prognosis in established systemic sclerosis (SSc). However, knowledge about its relevance in very early SSc (veSSc) is scarce. We aimed to assess the prevalence and phenotype of arthritis, as well as its prognostic impact, in patients with veSSc. METHODS: We analysed patients with veSSc, defined as presence of Raynaud's phenomenon and/or at least one of: puffy fingers, antinuclear antibodies (ANA), abnormal capillaroscopy, not fulfilling the ACR/EULAR classification criteria for SSc at baseline. We investigated associations between arthritis and clinical parameters, followed by a longitudinal analysis to investigate arthritis as a potential predictor of progression towards established SSc. RESULTS: We included 159 patients, of whom 108 had at least one follow-up visit. SSc-related arthritis occurred in 22/159 (13.8%) patients at baseline. Arthritis was mostly seronegative, symmetrical, oligo- or polyarticular, non-erosive, and rarely associated with elevation of inflammatory markers. More than half of the patients needed treatment with DMARDs. Anti-centromere antibodies were negatively associated with arthritis (OR: 0.707, 95% confidence interval 0.513-0.973, p = 0.033). Overall, 43/108 (39.8%) patients with follow-up progressed to established SSc during the observation time. Arthritis was not a significant predictor for progression to established SSc in a multivariable Cox regression. CONCLUSION: In this first comprehensive analysis, we found a similar prevalence of arthritis in veSSc as seen in established SSc. Moreover, the use of DMARDs indirectly suggests a relevant disease burden.

Vision transformer assisting rheumatologists in screening for capillaroscopy changes in systemic sclerosis: an artificial intelligence model.

OBJECTIVES: The first objective of this study was to implement and assess the performance and reliability of a vision transformer (ViT)-based deep-learning model, an 'off-the-shelf' artificial intelligence solution, for identifying distinct signs of microangiopathy in nailfold capilloroscopy (NFC) images of patients with SSc. The second objective was to compare the ViT's analysis performance with that of practising rheumatologists. METHODS: NFC images of patients prospectively enrolled in our European Scleroderma Trials and Research group (EUSTAR) and Very Early Diagnosis of Systemic Sclerosis (VEDOSS) local registries were used. The primary outcome investigated was the ViT's classification performance for identifying disease-associated changes (enlarged capillaries, giant capillaries, capillary loss, microhaemorrhages) and the presence of the scleroderma pattern in these images using a cross-fold validation setting. The secondary outcome involved a comparison of the ViT's performance vs that of rheumatologists on a reliability set, consisting of a subset of 464 NFC images with majority vote-derived ground-truth labels. RESULTS: We analysed 17 126 NFC images derived from 234 EUSTAR and 55 VEDOSS patients. The ViT had good performance in identifying the various microangiopathic changes in capillaries by NFC [area under the curve (AUC) from 81.8% to 84.5%]. In the reliability set, the rheumatologists reached a higher average accuracy, as well as a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity compared with the ViT. However, the annotators' performance was variable, and one out of four rheumatologists showed equal or lower classification measures compared with the ViT. CONCLUSIONS: The ViT is a modern, well-performing and readily available tool for assessing patterns of microangiopathy on NFC images, and it may assist rheumatologists in generating consistent and high-quality NFC reports; however, the final diagnosis of a scleroderma pattern in any individual case needs the judgement of an experienced observer.

Use of platelet inhibitors for digital ulcers related to systemic sclerosis: EUSTAR study on derivation and validation of the DU-VASC model.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate the prognostic prediction model DU-VASC to assist the clinicians in decision-making regarding the use of platelet inhibitors (PIs) for the management of digital ulcers in patients with systemic sclerosis. Secondly, to assess the incremental value of PIs as predictor. METHODS: We analysed patient data from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research group registry (one time point assessed). Three sets of derivation/validation cohorts were obtained from the original cohort. Using logistic regression, we developed a model for prediction of digital ulcers (DUs). C-Statistics and calibration plots were calculated to evaluate the prediction performance. Variable importance plots and the decrease in C-statistics were used to address the importance of the predictors. RESULTS: Of 3710 patients in the original cohort, 487 had DUs and 90 were exposed to PIs. For the DU-VASC model, which includes 27 predictors, we observed good calibration and discrimination in all cohorts (C-statistic = 81.1% [95% CI: 78.9%, 83.4%] for the derivation and 82.3% [95% CI: 779.3%, 85.3%] for the independent temporal validation cohort). Exposure to PIs was associated with absence of DUs and was the most important therapeutic predictor. Further important factors associated with absence of DUs were lower modified Rodnan skin score, anti-Scl-70 negativity and normal CRP. Conversely, the exposure to phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitor, prostacyclin analogues or endothelin receptor antagonists seemed to be associated with the occurrence of DUs. Nonetheless, previous DUs remains the most impactful predictor of DUs. CONCLUSION: The DU-VASC model, with good calibration and discrimination ability, revealed that PI treatment was the most important therapy-related predictor associated with reduced DU occurrence.

Development and validation of a patient-reported outcome measure for systemic sclerosis: the EULAR Systemic Sclerosis Impact of Disease (ScleroID) questionnaire.

OBJECTIVES: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are important for clinical practice and research. Given the high unmet need, our aim was to develop a comprehensive PROM for systemic sclerosis (SSc), jointly with patient experts. METHODS: This European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)-endorsed project involved 11 European SSc centres. Relevant health dimensions were chosen and prioritised by patients. The resulting Systemic Sclerosis Impact of Disease (ScleroID) questionnaire was subsequently weighted and validated by Outcome Measures in Rheumatology criteria in an observational cohort study, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. As comparators, SSc-Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ), EuroQol Five Dimensional (EQ-5D), Short Form-36 (SF-36) were included. RESULTS: Initially, 17 health dimensions were selected and prioritised. The top 10 health dimensions were selected for the ScleroID questionnaire. Importantly, Raynaud's phenomenon, impaired hand function, pain and fatigue had the highest patient-reported disease impact. The validation cohort study included 472 patients with a baseline visit, from which 109 had a test-retest reliability visit and 113 had a follow-up visit (85% female, 38% diffuse SSc, mean age 58 years, mean disease duration 9 years). The total ScleroID score showed strong Pearson correlation coefficients with comparators (SSc-HAQ, 0.73; Patient's global assessment, Visual Analogue Scale 0.77; HAQ-Disability Index, 0.62; SF-36 physical score, -0.62; each p<0.001). The internal consistency was strong: Cronbach's alpha was 0.87, similar to SSc-HAQ (0.88) and higher than EQ-5D (0.77). The ScleroID had excellent reliability and good sensitivity to change, superior to all comparators (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.84; standardised response mean 0.57). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated the EULAR ScleroID, which is a novel, brief, disease-specific, patient-derived, disease impact PROM, suitable for research and clinical use in SSc.

Progressive interstitial lung disease in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease in the EUSTAR database.

OBJECTIVES: To identify overall disease course, progression patterns and risk factors predictive for progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD) in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated ILD (SSc-ILD), using data from the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) database over long-term follow-up. METHODS: Eligible patients with SSc-ILD were registered in the EUSTAR database and had measurements of forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline and after 12±3 months. Long-term progressive ILD and progression patterns were assessed in patients with multiple FVC measurements. Potential predictors of ILD progression were analysed using multivariable mixed-effect models. RESULTS: 826 patients with SSc-ILD were included. Over 12±3 months, 219 (27%) showed progressive ILD: either moderate (FVC decline 5% to 10%) or significant (FVC decline >10%). A total of 535 (65%) patients had multiple FVC measurements available over mean 5-year follow-up. In each 12-month period, 23% to 27% of SSc-ILD patients showed progressive ILD, but only a minority of patients showed progression in consecutive periods. Most patients with progressive ILD (58%) had a pattern of slow lung function decline, with more periods of stability/improvement than decline, whereas only 8% showed rapid, continuously declining FVC; 178 (33%) experienced no episode of FVC decline. The strongest predictive factors for FVC decline over 5 years were male sex, higher modified Rodnan skin score and reflux/dysphagia symptoms. CONCLUSION: SSc-ILD shows a heterogeneous and variable disease course, and thus monitoring all patients closely is important. Novel treatment concepts, with treatment initiation before FVC decline occurs, should aim for prevention of progression to avoid irreversible organ damage.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in patients with systemic sclerosis: a psychometric and factor analysis in a monocentric cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the feasibility, validity, reliability, and responsiveness of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and to analyse its model structure in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: In this study, 316 SSc patients were included; of these, 159 participated in the responsiveness analysis. Psychometric properties were tested in analogy to the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) filter and an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was performed to examine the structure of HADS. RESULTS: The HADS showed adequate feasibility, validity, reliability, and responsiveness to clinically relevant worsening of the disease. For our population of SSc patients, the HADS model with two sub-scales, HADS-A and HADS-D, and a general scale HADS-S, measuring anxiety, depression, and distress, respectively, was most appropriate. The rates of anxiety, depression, mixed anxiety-depressive disorder (MADD) and distress identified by HADS were 32.2%, 25.9%, 18.5%, and 49.5%, respectively, in our cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The psychometric properties of the HADS make it useful for screening in SSc, where anxiety, depression, MADD, and distress represent a significant burden to patients.

Reliability, Validity, and Sensitivity to Change of the Cochin Hand Functional Disability Scale and Testing the New 6-Item Cochin Hand Functional Disability Scale in Systemic Sclerosis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic autoimmune disease causing complex hand disability. A reliable tool for hand function assessment in SSc is the Cochin Hand Functional Disability Scale (CHFS). More recently, a short-form CHFS of 6 items (CHFS-6) has been developed. OBJECTIVES: To validate the CHFS and the new CHFS-6 in Romanian patients with SSc. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Consecutive patients with SSc who completed the CHFS were included. All patients were assessed according to the recommendations of the European Scleroderma and Research Trials and also completed the Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire and the Hand Mobility in Scleroderma questionnaire. Finger range-of-motion distances were measured. RESULTS: Seventy patients, 63 female and 7 male patients (age median, 53.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 21.0 years), were included. Twenty seven had diffuse cutaneous involvement (dcSSc). Median CHFS and CHFS-6 at baseline were 25.0 (IQR, 37.0) and 8.0 (IQR, 13.0), respectively.The internal consistency (Cronbach α = 0.96, respectively, 0.90, in all 70 patients) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.98 for both, in 38 patients) of both CHFS and CHFS-6 were excellent. The CHFS-6 had a very high correlation with the CHFS. There were moderate to good correlations with Hand Mobility in Scleroderma, Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire, and the anthropometric measurements (construct validity). In patients with early dcSSc with a second evaluation, we found good to moderate sensitivity to change (standardized response mean of 0.8 and effect size of 0.4 for CHFS, and standardized response mean of 1.1 and effect size of 0.6 for CHFS-6). CONCLUSIONS: The CHFS and CHFS-6 are valid and easy-to-use tools for hand involvement in SSc, which can be used in clinical or research setting.

Incidence and risk factors for gangrene in patients with systemic sclerosis from the EUSTAR cohort.

OBJECTIVE: In patients with SSc, peripheral vasculopathy can promote critical ischaemia and gangrene. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence, incidence and risk factors for gangrene in the EUSTAR cohort. METHODS: We included patients from the EUSTAR database fulfilling the ACR 1980 or the ACR/EULAR 2013 classification criteria for SSc, with at least one visit recording data on gangrene. Centres were asked for supplementary data on traditional cardiovascular risk factors. We analysed the cross-sectional relationship between gangrene and its potential risk factors by univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Longitudinal data were analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: 1757 patients were analysed (age 55.9 [14.5] years, disease duration 7.9 [10.3] years, male sex 16.7%, 24.6% diffuse cutaneous subset [dcSSc]). At inclusion, 8.9% of patients had current or previous digital gangrene, 16.1% had current digital ulcers (DUs) and 42.7% had ever had DUs (current or previous). Older age, DUs ever and dcSSc were statistically significant risk factors for gangrene in the cross-sectional multivariable model. During a median follow-up of 13.1 months, 16/771 (0.9%) patients developed gangrene. All 16 patients who developed gangrene had previously had DUs and gangrene. Further risk factors for incident gangrene were the dcSSc subset and longer disease duration. CONCLUSION: In unselected SSc patients, gangrene occurs in about 9% of SSc patients. DUs ever and, to a lesser extent, the dcSSc subset are strongly and independently associated with gangrene, while traditional cardiovascular risk factors could not be identified as risk factors.

Evaluation of botulinum toxin A injections for the treatment of refractory chronic digital ulcers in patients with systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the therapeutic benefit of botulinum toxin A (BTX-A) injections for digital ulcers (DU) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: A systematic literature review was performed and the identified articles were selected by two reviewers and analysed with respect to date of publication, inclusion and exclusion criteria, number and age of participants, volume of BTX-A, injection sites, outcomes, and adverse events. In addition, in the Zurich cohort, 7 SSc patients were eligible for the study and were assessed for the duration of DU to heal, duration of DU-free periods, changes in frequency and numbers of prescribed vasodilators, pain and blood flow. RESULTS: In five articles from the systematic review, at least 48% of DU had healed and up to 100% reduction in VAS for pain was reported. Our 7 patients (median age of 53 (47-82) years) had in median 2.5 (2-4) DU and were injected with a median BTX-A volume of 90 (50-100) units per hand. Of the 31 DU in all patients, 77% (n=24) healed. Time to wound closure was in median 8 (4-12) weeks and the DU-free duration was in median 8 (3-10) months. In 80% of the cases, at least one vasodilator was stopped or could be administered less frequently. An improvement of blood flow and pain was reported in 60% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: BTX-A injections might be of benefit for the treatment of chronic, refractory DU in selected SSc patients, yet a sufficiently powered prospective study will be needed as ultimate proof.

Revised European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group Activity Index is the best predictor of short-term severity accrual.

BACKGROUND: The European Scleroderma Trials and Research Group (EUSTAR) recently developed a preliminarily revised activity index (AI) that performed better than the European Scleroderma Study Group Activity Index (EScSG-AI) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). OBJECTIVE: To assess the predictive value for short-term disease severity accrual of the EUSTAR-AI, as compared with those of the EScSG-AI and of known adverse prognostic factors. METHODS: Patients with SSc from the EUSTAR database with a disease duration from the onset of the first non-Raynaud sign/symptom ≤5 years and a baseline visit between 2003 and 2014 were first extracted. To capture the disease activity variations over time, EUSTAR-AI and EScSG-AI adjusted means were calculated. The primary outcome was disease progression defined as a Δ≥1 in the Medsger's severity score and in distinct items at the 2-year follow-up visit. Logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify predictive factors. RESULTS: 549 patients were enrolled. At multivariate analysis, the EUSTAR-AI adjusted mean was the only predictor of any severity accrual and of that of lung and heart, skin and peripheral vascular disease over 2 years. CONCLUSION: The adjusted mean EUSTAR-AI has the best predictive value for disease progression and development of severe organ involvement over time in SSc.

Vasodilators and low-dose acetylsalicylic acid are associated with a lower incidence of distinct primary myocardial disease manifestations in systemic sclerosis: results of the DeSScipher inception cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the influence of vasodilator drugs on the occurrence of features depending on myocardial ischaemia/fibrosis (ventricular arrhythmias, Q waves, cardiac blocks, pacemaker implantation, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <55%, and/or congestive heart failure and sudden cardiac death) in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: 601 patients with SSc were enrolled from 1 December 2012 to 30 November 2015 and had a second visit 0.5-4 years apart. 153 received no vasodilators; 448 received vasodilator therapy (ie, calcium channel blockers and/or ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers or combinations of them), 89 of them being also treated with either endothelin receptor antagonists or PDE5 inhibitors or prostanoids. Associations between the occurrence of myocardial disease manifestations and any demographic, disease and therapeutic aspect were investigated by Cox regression analysis. A Cox frailty survival model with centre of enrolment as random effect was performed. RESULTS: During 914 follow-up patient-years, 12 ventricular arrhythmias, 5 Q waves, 40 cardiac blocks, 6 pacemaker implantations and 19 reduced LVEF and/or congestive heart failure (CHF) occurred. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, vasodilator therapy was associated with a lower incidence of ventricular arrhythmias (p=0.03); low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) with a lower incidence of cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.02); active disease with a higher incidence of LVEF <55% and/or CHF and cardiac blocks and/or Q waves and/or pacemaker implantation (p=0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The present study might suggest a preventative effect on the occurrence of distinct myocardial manifestations by vasodilator therapy and low-dose ASA.

Outcomes of patients with systemic sclerosis treated with rituximab in contemporary practice: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and efficacy of rituximab in systemic sclerosis (SSc) in clinical practice. METHODS: We performed a prospective study including patients with SSc from the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) network treated with rituximab and matched with untreated patients with SSc. The main outcomes measures were adverse events, skin fibrosis improvement, lung fibrosis worsening and steroids use among propensity score-matched patients treated or not with rituximab. RESULTS: 254 patients were treated with rituximab, in 58% for lung and in 32% for skin involvement. After a median follow-up of 2 years, about 70% of the patients had no side effect. Comparison of treated patients with 9575 propensity-score matched patients showed that patients treated with rituximab were more likely to have skin fibrosis improvement (22.7 vs 14.03 events per 100 person-years; OR: 2.79 [1.47-5.32]; p=0.002). Treated patients did not have significantly different rates of decrease in forced vital capacity (FVC)>10% (OR: 1.03 [0.55-1.94]; p=0.93) nor in carbon monoxide diffusing capacity (DLCO) decrease. Patients having received rituximab were more prone to stop or decrease steroids (OR: 2.34 [1.56-3.53], p<0.0001). Patients treated concomitantly with mycophenolate mofetil had a trend for better outcomes as compared with patients receiving rituximab alone (delta FVC: 5.22 [0.83-9.62]; p=0.019 as compared with controls vs 3 [0.66-5.35]; p=0.012). CONCLUSION: Rituximab use was associated with a good safety profile in this large SSc-cohort. Significant change was observed on skin fibrosis, but not on lung. However, the limitation is the observational design. The potential stabilisation of lung fibrosis by rituximab has to be addressed by a randomised trial.

Factors associated with disease progression in early-diagnosed pulmonary arterial hypertension associated with systemic sclerosis: longitudinal data from the DETECT cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a severe complication of systemic sclerosis (SSc). In this longitudinal study, we aimed to identify factors associated with an unfavourable outcome in patients with SSc with early PAH (SSc-PAH) from the DETECT cohort. METHODS: Patients with SSc-PAH enrolled in DETECT were observed for up to 3 years. Associations between cross-sectional variables and disease progression (defined as the occurrence of any of the following events: WHO Functional Class worsening, combination therapy for PAH, hospitalisation or death) were analysed by univariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 57 patients with PAH (median observation time 12.6 months), 25 (43.9%) had disease progression. The following factors (OR (95% CI)) were associated with disease progression: male gender (4.1 (1.2 to 14.1)), high forced vital capacity % predicted/carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO)% predicted ratio (3.6 (1.2 to 10.7)), high Borg Dyspnoea Index (1.7 (1.1 to 2.6)) and low DLCO% predicted (non-linear relationship). CONCLUSION: More than 40% of early-diagnosed patients with SSc-PAH had disease progression during a short follow-up time, with male gender, functional capacity and pulmonary function tests at PAH diagnosis being associated with progression. This suggests that even mild PAH should be considered a high-risk complication of SSc.

Functional disability and its predictors in systemic sclerosis: a study from the DeSScipher project within the EUSTAR group.

Objectives: The multisystem manifestations of SSc can greatly impact patients' quality of life. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with disability in SSc. Methods: SSc patients from the prospective DeSScipher cohort who had completed the scleroderma health assessment questionnaire (SHAQ), a disability score that combines the health assessment questionnaire and five visual analogue scales, were included in this analysis. The effect of factors possibly associated with disability was analysed with multiple linear regressions. Results: The mean SHAQ and HAQ scores of the 944 patients included were 0.87 (s.d. = 0.66) and 0.92 (s.d. = 0.78); 59% of the patients were in the mild to moderate difficulty SHAQ category (0 ⩽ SHAQ < 1), 34% in the moderate to severe disability category (1 ⩽ SHAQ < 2) and 7% in the severe to very severe disability category (2 ⩽ SHAQ ⩽ 3). The means of the visual analogue scales scores were in order of magnitude: overall disease severity (37 mm), RP (31 mm), pulmonary symptoms (24 mm), gastrointestinal symptoms (20 mm) and digital ulcers (19 mm). In multiple regression, the main factors associated with high SHAQ scores were the presence of dyspnoea [modified New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV (regression coefficient B = 0.62), modified NYHA class III (B = 0.53) and modified NYHA class II (B = 0.21; all vs modified NYHA class I)], FM (B = 0.37), muscle weakness (B = 0.27), digital ulcers (B = 0.20) and gastrointestinal symptoms (oesophageal symptoms, B = 0.16; stomach symptoms, B = 0.15; intestinal symptoms, B = 0.15). Conclusion: SSc patients perceive dyspnoea, pain, digital ulcers, muscle weakness and gastrointestinal symptoms as the main factors driving their level of disability, unlike physicians who emphasize objective measures of disability.

The emerging application of semi-quantitative and quantitative capillaroscopy in systemic sclerosis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a connective tissue disease with high morbidity and mortality, characterized by autoimmunity, obliterative vasculopathy involving mainly the microvasculature, and fibrosis. SSc-specific nailfold capillaroscopic changes have been defined, and nailfold capillaroscopy (NFC) is now unequivocally accepted to be a cornerstone for the early diagnosis of SSc. However, the use of NFC in patients already diagnosed with SSc is still not standardized. Several studies have shown that NFC abnormalities correlate with disease activity and severity and are predictive for disease worsening, such as occurrence of new digital ulcers. More importantly, successful treatment has been shown to diminish NFC abnormalities in severe SSc cases. These findings support the importance of NFC in monitoring patients with SSc and even its role as an outcome measure in SSc clinical trials. It is a matter of debate if Semi-quantitative and Quantitative NFC would be a more sensitive tool than qualitative NFC for meeting these objectives. This review is presenting the emerging application of Semi-quantitative and Quantitative NFC in SSc and its potential benefits.

Composition of TWIST1 dimers regulates fibroblast activation and tissue fibrosis.

OBJECTIVES: TWIST1 is a member of the class B of basic helix-loop-helix transcription factors that regulates cell lineage determination and differentiation and has been implicated in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition. Here, we aimed to investigate the role of TWIST1 for the activation of resident fibroblasts in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The expression of Twist1 in fibroblasts was modulated by forced overexpression or siRNA-mediated knockdown. Interaction of Twist1, E12 and inhibitor Of differentiation (Id) was analysed by co-immunoprecipitation. The role of Twist1 in vivo was evaluated using inducible, conditional knockout mice with either ubiquitous or fibroblast-specific depletion of Twist1. Mice were either challenged with bleomycin or overexpressing a constitutively active transforming growth factor (TGF)ß receptor I. RESULT: The expression of TWIST1 was increased in fibroblasts in fibrotic human and murine skin in a TGFß/SMAD3-dependent manner. TWIST1 in turn enhanced TGFß-induced fibroblast activation in a p38-dependent manner. The stimulatory effects of TWIST1 on resident fibroblasts were mediated by TWIST1 homodimers. TGFß promotes the formation of TWIST1 homodimers by upregulation of TWIST1 and by induction of inhibitor of DNA-binding proteins, which have high affinity for E12/E47 and compete against TWIST1 for E12/E47 binding. Mice with selective depletion of Twist1 in fibroblasts are protected from experimental skin fibrosis in different murine models to a comparable degree as mice with ubiquitous depletion of Twist1. CONCLUSIONS: Our data identify TWIST1 as a central pro-fibrotic factor in SSc, which facilitates fibroblast activation by amplifying TGFß signalling. Targeting of TWIST1 may thus be a novel approach to normalise aberrant TGFß signalling in SSc.

Mapping and predicting mortality from systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the causes of death and risk factors in systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: Between 2000 and 2011, we examined the death certificates of all French patients with SSc to determine causes of death. Then we examined causes of death and developed a score associated with all-cause mortality from the international European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database. Candidate prognostic factors were tested by Cox proportional hazards regression model by single variable analysis, followed by a multiple variable model stratified by centres. The bootstrapping technique was used for internal validation. RESULTS: We identified 2719 French certificates of deaths related to SSc, mainly from cardiac (31%) and respiratory (18%) causes, and an increase in SSc-specific mortality over time. Over a median follow-up of 2.3 years, 1072 (9.6%) of 11 193 patients from the EUSTAR sample died, from cardiac disease in 27% and respiratory causes in 17%. By multiple variable analysis, a risk score was developed, which accurately predicted the 3-year mortality, with an area under the curve of 0.82. The 3-year survival of patients in the upper quartile was 53%, in contrast with 98% in the first quartile. CONCLUSION: Combining two complementary and detailed databases enabled the collection of an unprecedented 3700 deaths, revealing the major contribution of the cardiopulmonary system to SSc mortality. We also developed a robust score to risk-stratify these patients and estimate their 3-year survival. With the emergence of new therapies, these important observations should help caregivers plan and refine the monitoring and management to prolong these patients' survival.

Prediction of improvement in skin fibrosis in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: a EUSTAR analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS: From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.

Digital ulcers predict a worse disease course in patients with systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a systemic autoimmune disease with high morbidity and significant mortality. There is a great need of predictors that would allow risk stratification of patients with SSc and ultimately initiation of treatment early enough to ensure optimal clinical results. In this study, we evaluated whether a history of digital ulcers (HDU) at presentation may be a predictor of vascular outcomes and of overall clinical worsening and death in patients with SSc. METHODS: Patients from the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database, satisfying at inclusion the 1980 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for SSc, who had a follow-up of at least 3 years since baseline or who have died, were included in the analysis. HDU at presentation as a predictor of disease worsening or death was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: 3196 patients matched the inclusion criteria (male sex 13.2%, 33.4% diffuse subset). At presentation, 1092/3196 patients had an HDU (34.1%). In multivariable analysis adjusting for age, gender and all parameters considered potentially significant, HDU was predictive for the presence of active digital ulcers (DUs) at prospective visits (HR (95% CI)): 2.41 (1.91 to 3.03), p<0.001, for an elevated systolic pulmonary arterial pressure on heart ultrasound (US-PAPs):1.36 (1.03 to 1.80), p=0.032, for any cardiovascular event (new DUs, elevated US-PAPs or LV failure): 3.56 (2.26 to 5.62), p<0.001, and for death (1.53 (1.16 to 2.02), p=0.003). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with SSc, HDU at presentation predicts the occurrence of DUs at follow-up and is associated with cardiovascular worsening and decreased survival.