Identifying Greater Sage-Grouse source and sink habitats for conservation planning in an energy development landscape.

Conserving a declining species that is facing many threats, including overlap of its habitats with energy extraction activities, depends upon identifying and prioritizing the value of the habitats that remain. In addition, habitat quality is often compromised when source habitats are lost or fragmented due to anthropogenic development. Our objective was to build an ecological model to classify and map habitat quality in terms of source or sink dynamics for Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), a developing coalbed natural gas field in south-central Wyoming, USA. We used occurrence and survival modeling to evaluate relationships between environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple spatial scales and for all female summer life stages, including nesting, brood-rearing, and non-brooding females. For each life stage, we created resource selection functions (RSFs). We weighted the RSFs and combined them to form a female summer occurrence map. We modeled survival also as a function of spatial variables for nest, brood, and adult female summer survival. Our survival-models were mapped as survival probability functions individually and then combined with fixed vital rates in a fitness metric model that, when mapped, predicted habitat productivity (productivity map). Our results demonstrate a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables at multiple scales that were predictive of occurrence and survival. We created a source-sink map by overlaying our female summer occurrence map and productivity map to predict habitats contributing to population surpluses (source habitats) or deficits (sink habitat) and low-occurrence habitats on the landscape. The source-sink map predicted that of the Sage-Grouse habitat within the ARPA, 30% was primary source, 29% was secondary source, 4% was primary sink, 6% was secondary sink, and 31% was low occurrence. Our results provide evidence that energy development and avoidance of energy infrastructure were probably reducing the amount of source habitat within the ARPA landscape. Our source-sink map provides managers with a means of prioritizing habitats for conservation planning based on source and sink dynamics. The spatial identification of high value (i.e., primary source) as well as suboptimal (i.e., primary sink) habitats allows for informed energy development to minimize effects on local wildlife populations.

Mosquito larval habitat mapping using remote sensing and GIS: implications of coalbed methane development and West Nile virus.

Potential larval habitats of the mosquito Culex tarsalis (Coquillett), implicated as a primary vector of West Nile virus in Wyoming, were identified using integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) analyses. The study area is in the Powder River Basin of north central Wyoming, an area that has been undergoing a significant increase in coalbed methane gas extractions since the late 1990s. Large volumes of water are discharged, impounded, and released during the extraction of methane gas, creating aquatic habitats that have the potential to support immature mosquito development. Landsat TM and ETM+ data were initially classified into spectrally distinct water and vegetation classes, which were in turn used to identify suitable larval habitat sites. This initial habitat classification was refined using knowledge-based GIS techniques requiring spatial data layers for topography, streams, and soils to reduce the potential for overestimation of habitat. Accuracy assessment was carried out using field data and high-resolution aerial photography commensurate with one of the Landsat images. The classifier can identify likely habitat for ponds larger than 0.8 ha (2 acres) with generally satisfactory results (72.1%) with a lower detection limit of approximately 0.4 ha (1 acre). Results show a 75% increase in potential larval habitats from 1999 to 2004 in the study area, primarily because of the large increase in small coalbed methane water discharge ponds. These results may facilitate mosquito abatement programs in the Powder River Basin with the potential for application throughout the state and region.

A temperature-limited assessment of the risk of Rift Valley fever transmission and establishment in the continental United States of America.

The rapid spread of West Nile virus across North America after its introduction in 1999 highlights the potential for foreign arboviruses to become established in the United States of America. Of particular concern is Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), which has been responsible for multiple African epidemics resulting in death of both humans and livestock, as well as major economic disruption due to livestock loss and trade restrictions. Modern globalization, travel, and commerce allow viruses to easily jump from one continent to another; and it is likely only a matter of time before RVFV reaches North American shores. We used a degree-day model in combination with livestock population data and a pathways analysis to identify regions and times where RVFV is most likely to enter and become established in the United States of America. Transmission risk of the disease varies across the country from 325 annual risk days in parts of Florida to zero risk days in the far North and in high mountain regions. Areas of particular concern are where there are a high number of possible tranmission days, a large livestock population, and proximity to likely locations for the disease to enter the country via mosquito vector or human host. These areas should be monitored closely during transmission "risk seasons" so that if the virus does enter the country and begins to become established, it can be quickly controlled and eliminated before spreading further. Areas most at risk include the Baltimore and New York City metro areas as well as much of the region between these urban centers; most of Texas, especially around Houston; Florida; Atlanta; southwest Nebraska; southern California and Arizona; and the central valley of California.

Application of a degree-day model of West Nile virus transmission risk to the East Coast of the United States of America.

A geographical information systems model that identifies regions of the United States of America (USA) susceptible to West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is presented. This system has previously been calibrated and tested in the western USA; in this paper we use datasets of WNV-killed birds from South Carolina and Connecticut to test the model in the eastern USA. Because their response to WNV infection is highly predictable, American crows were chosen as the primary source for model calibration and testing. Where crow data are absent, other birds are shown to be an effective substitute. Model results show that the same calibrated model demonstrated to work in the western USA has the same predictive ability in the eastern USA, allowing for a continental-scale evaluation of the transmission risk of WNV at a daily time step. The calibrated model is independent of mosquito species and requires inputs of only local maximum and minimum temperatures. Of benefit to the general public and vector control districts, the model predicts the onset of seasonal transmission risk, although it is less effective at identifying the end of the transmission risk season.

A geographical information system-based web model of arbovirus transmission risk in the continental United States of America.

A degree-day (DD) model of West Nile virus capable of forecasting real-time transmission risk in the continental United States of America up to one week in advance using a 50-km grid is available online at https://sites. google.com/site/arbovirusmap/. Daily averages of historical risk based on temperatures for 1994-2003 are available at 10km resolution. Transmission risk maps can be downloaded from 2010 to the present. The model can be adapted to work with any arbovirus for which the temperature-related parameters are known, e.g. Rift Valley fever virus. To more effectively assess virus establishment and transmission, the model incorporates "compound risk" maps and forecasts, which includes livestock density as a parameter.

Spatially explicit West Nile virus risk modeling in Santa Clara County, California.

A geographic information system model designed to identify regions at risk for West Nile virus (WNV) transmission was calibrated and tested with data collected in Santa Clara County, California. American Crows that died from WNV infection in 2005 provided spatial and temporal ground truth. When the model was run with parameters based on Culex tarsalis infected with the NY99 genotype of the virus, it underestimated WNV occurrence in Santa Clara Co. The parameters were calibrated to fit the field data by reducing the number of degree-days necessary to reach the mosquito's extrinsic incubation period from 109 to 76. The calibration raised model efficiency from 61% to 92% accuracy, and the model performed well the following year in Santa Clara Co.

A GIS tool to estimate West Nile virus risk based on a degree-day model.

West Nile virus (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is a serious infectious disease that recently spread across the North America continent. A spatial analysis tool was developed on the ArcMap 9.x platform to estimate potential West Nile virus activity using a spatially explicit degree-day model. The model identifies when the virus Extrinsic Incubation Period (EIP) is completed within the vector longevity during mid-summer months. The EIP is treated as a threshold indicator of the potential for virus emergence and activity. Comparing the number of West Nile virus cases in Wyoming reported from 2003 to 2005 with model results, actual cases and predicted events of West Nile virus activity match relatively well. The model represents a useful method for estimating potential West Nile virus activity in a large spatial scale.

A Rift Valley fever risk surveillance system for Africa using remotely sensed data: potential for use on other continents.

The authors developed a monitoring and risk mapping system using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) times series data derived from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) instrument on polar orbiting national oceanographic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) satellites to map areas with a potential for a Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa. This system is potentially an important tool for local, national and international organisations involved in the prevention and control of animal and human disease, permitting focused and timely implementation of disease control strategies several months before an outbreak. We are currently developing a geographic information system (GIS)-based remotely sensed early warning system for potential RVF vectors in the United States. Forecasts of the potential emergence of mosquito vectors will be disseminated throughout the United States, providing several months' warning in advance of potentially elevated mosquito populations. This would allow timely, targeted implementation of mosquito control, animal quarantine and vaccine strategies to reduce or prevent animal and human disease.