Estimation of sensitivity and specificity of bulk tank milk PCR and 2 antibody ELISA tests for herd-level diagnosis of Mycoplasma bovis infection using Bayesian latent class analysis.

Mycoplasmosis (due to infection with Mycoplasma bovis) is a serious disease of beef and dairy cattle that can adversely impact health, welfare and productivity (Maunsell et al. (2011)). Mycoplasmosis can lead to a range of often severe, clinical presentations. Mycoplasma bovis (M. bovis) infection can present either clinically or subclinically, with the potential for recrudescence of shedding in association with stressful periods. Infection can be maintained within herds because of intermittent shedding (Calcutt et al., 2018, Hazelton et al., 2018). M. bovis is recognized as poorly responsive to treatment which represents a major challenge for control in infected herds. Given this, particular focus is needed on biosecurity measures to prevent introduction into uninfected herds in the first place. A robust and reliable laboratory test for surveillance is important both for herd-level prevention and control. The objective of this study was to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of 3 diagnostic tests (one PCR and 2 ELISA tests) on bulk tank milk, for the herd-level detection of M. bovis using Bayesian latent class analysis. In autumn 2018, bulk tank milk samples from 11,807 herds, covering the majority of the main dairy regions in Ireland had been submitted to the Department of Agriculture testing laboratory for routine surveillance were made available. A stratified random sample approach was used to select a cohort of herds for testing from this larger sample set. A final study population of 728 herds had bulk tank milk samples analyzed using a Bio-X ELISA (ELISA 1), an IDvet ELISA (ELISA 2) and a PCR test. A Bayesian latent class analysis (BLCA) was conducted to estimate the sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the 3 diagnostic tests applied to bulk tank milk (BTM) for the detection of the herd-level infection. An overall LCA was conducted on all herds within a single population (a 3-test, 1-population model). The herds were also split into 2 populations based on herd size (small herds had < 82 cattle) (a 3-test, 2-population model) and separately into 3 regions in Ireland (Leinster, Munster and Connacht/Ulster) (a 3-test, 3-population model). The latent variable of interest was the herd-level M. bovis infection status. In total, 363/728 (50%) were large herds, 7 (1.0%) were positive on PCR, 88 (12%) positive on ELISA 1, and 406 (56%) positive on ELISA 2. Based on the 2-population model, the sensitivity (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) was 0.03 (0.02, 0.05), 0.22 (0.18, 0.27), 0.94 (0.88, 0.98) for PCR, ELISA 1 and ELISA 2 respectively. The specificity (95% BCI) was 0.99 (0.99, 1.0), 0.97 (0.95, 0.99), and 0.92 (0.86, 0.97) for PCR, ELISA 1 and ELISA 2 respectively. The herd-level true prevalence was estimated at 0.43 (BCI 0.35, 0.5) for smaller herds. The true prevalence was estimated at 0.62 (BCI 0.55, 0.69) for larger herds. The true prevalence was estimated at 0.56 (BCI 0.49, 0.463) in the 1-population model. For the 3-population model, the sensitivity (95% BCI) was 0.03 (0.02, 0.05), 0.24 (0.18, 0.29), 0.95 (0.9, 0.98) for PCR, ELISA 1 and ELISA 2 respectively. The specificity (95% BCI) was 0.99 (0.99, 1.0), 0.98 (0.96, 0.99), and 0.88 (0.79, 0.95) for PCR, ELISA 1 and ELISA 2 respectively. The herd-level true prevalence (95% BCI) was estimated at 0.65 (0.56, 0.73), 0.38 (0.28, 0.46) and 0.53 (0.4, 0.65) for population 1, 2, 3 respectively. Across all 3 models, the range in true prevalence was 38% to 65% of Irish dairy herds infected with M. bovis. The operating characteristics vary substantially between tests. The IDvet ELISA had a relatively high Se (the highest Se of the 3 tests studied) but it was estimated at 0.95 at its highest in 3-test, 3-population model. This test may be an appropriate test for herd-level screening or prevalence estimation within the context of the endemically infected Irish dairy cattle population. Further work is required to optimize this test and its interpretation when applied at herd-level to offset concerns related to the lower than optimal test Sp.

Evaluation of paediatric pulmonary vein stenosis by cardiac CT angiography: a comparative study with transthoracic echocardiography and catheter angiogram.

AIM: To compare prospective electrocardiogram (ECG)-gated cardiac computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) with transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and cardiac catheter angiography (CCA) for paediatric pulmonary vein (PV) stenosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective chart review was undertaken of all patients who underwent CCTA for PV evaluation over a 4-year period. Patient demographics, findings of CCTA, TTE, and CCA, as well as interventions performed, were recorded for each PV. RESULTS: Thirty-five patients were included (23 male patients). All patients had a prior TTE with time interval between TTE and CCTA ranging from 0 to 90 days. CCTA detected 92 abnormalities in 32 patients. TTE missed 16 PV abnormalities (16/92, 17%), detected 37 abnormalities with certainty (37/92, 40%), and was suggestive in 39 abnormalities (39/92, 42%). CCTA was negative for PV abnormalities when TTE was positive or suspicious in three patients. Nineteen patients underwent CCA (18 patients with 52 abnormalities and one patient with normal PV), confirming CCTA findings. Thirty-nine were treated with angioplasty/stenting (39/52,75%). Failed recanalisation occurred in three PVs (3/52, 6%) and no intervention was attempted for the rest as the gradient was not significant (10/52,19%). Nine patients underwent surgical repair (26/92, 28%). Five patients (14/92, 15%) were managed with no intervention based on CCTA findings and poor clinical prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: CCTA plays an important role in detecting paediatric PV stenosis and identifies additional findings compared to TTE that have direct surgical/interventional implications. CCTA complements TTE in imaging these patients and helps guide management.

A framework for assessing confidence in freedom from infection in animal disease control programmes.

In the Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection (STOC free) project (https://www.stocfree.eu), a data collection tool was constructed to facilitate standardised collection of input data, and a model was developed to allow a standardised and harmonised comparison of the outputs of different control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases. The STOC free model can be used to evaluate the probability of freedom from infection for herds in CPs and to determine whether these CPs comply with the European Union's pre-defined output-based standards. Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) was chosen as the case disease for this project because of the diversity in CPs in the six participating countries. Detailed BVDV CP and risk factor information was collected using the data collection tool. For inclusion of the data in the STOC free model, key aspects and default values were quantified. A Bayesian hidden Markov model was deemed appropriate, and a model was developed for BVDV CPs. The model was tested and validated using real BVDV CP data from partner countries, and corresponding computer code was made publicly available. The STOC free model focuses on herd-level data, although that animal-level data can be included after aggregation to herd level. The STOC free model is applicable to diseases that are endemic, given that it needs the presence of some infection to estimate parameters and enable convergence. In countries where infection-free status has been achieved, a scenario tree model could be a better suited tool. Further work is recommended to generalise the STOC free model to other diseases.

Dans le cadre du projet européen STOC free (Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection, outil de surveillance permettant de comparer les probabilités d'absence d'infection sur la base des résultats, https://www.stocfree.eu), un outil de recueil des données a été construit pour faciliter une collecte normalisée des données d'entrée ; un modèle a également été élaboré pour permettre une comparaison normalisée et harmonisée des données sur les résultats des différents programmes de contrôle des maladies des bovins. Le modèle STOC free peut être utilisé pour évaluer la probabilité d'absence d'infection au sein des troupeaux dans le cadre des programmes de contrôle et déterminer si ces programmes sont conformes aux normes définies par l'Union européenne en termes de résultats attendus. L'infection par le virus de la diarrhée virale bovine a été choisie comme maladie d'étude pour ce projet en raison de la diversité des programmes de contrôle dans les six pays participants. Les informations relatives aux programmes de contrôle et aux facteurs de risque d'infection ont été recueillies à l'aide de l'outil de collecte des données. Les aspects clés et valeurs par défaut ont été quantifiés en vue d'être inclus dans le modèle STOC free. Un modèle de Markov caché dont les paramètres sont estimés par inférence bayésienne a été considéré comme le plus adapté et développé pour une application aux données issues des programmes de contrôle de la diarrhée virale bovine. Ce modèle a été testé et validé en utilisant des données réelles des programmes de contrôle du virus de la diarrhée virale bovine des pays participants ; le code informatique correspondant a été rendu public. Le modèle STOC free utilise des données au niveau des troupeaux, même si des données au niveau des animaux individuels peuvent être incluses une fois agrégées au niveau du troupeau. Le modèle STOC free s'applique aux maladies endémiques, puisqu'un certain niveau de présence de l'infection est nécessaire pour estimer les paramètres et permettre la convergence. Dans les pays ayant obtenu le statut indemne d'infection, un modèle du type arbre de scénario pourrait être un outil plus adapté. Des travaux supplémentaires sont recommandés pour généraliser le modèle STOC free à d'autres maladies.

Como parte del proyecto europeo STOC free (Surveillance Tool for Outcome-based Comparison of FREEdom from infection, herramienta de vigilancia para comparaciones por resultados respecto a la ausencia de infecciones, https://www.stocfree.eu), se confeccionó una herramienta de obtención de datos para facilitar la recogida normalizada de datos entrantes y se elaboró un modelo que posibilitara una comparación normalizada y armonizada de los resultados (datos salientes) de distintos programas de control de enfermedades bovinas. El modelo STOC free puede servir para calcular la probabilidad de ausencia de infección en los rebaños como parte de los programas de control y para determinar si estos programas se ajustan a las normas predefinidas de resultados de la Unión Europea. Como ejemplo de estudio para el proyecto se eligió el virus de la diarrea viral bovina (virus DVB) por la diversidad que presentaban los correspondientes programas de control de los seis países participantes. Empleando la herramienta de obtención de datos, se reunió información pormenorizada de los programas de control del virus DVB y los factores de riesgo. Para incluir los datos en el modelo STOC free, se cifraron unos aspectos clave y valores predeterminados Juzgando conveniente el empleo de un modelo oculto de Markov cuyos parámetros se estiman por inferencia bayesiana, se elaboró un modelo de esta índole aplicable a los programas de control del virus DVB. Para ensayar y validar el modelo se utilizaron datos reales de los programas de control del virus DVB de los países participantes, tras lo cual se hizo público el correspondiente código informático. El modelo STOC free trabaja con los datos por rebaño, aunque tras la agregación por rebaños pueden incluirse también datos por individuo. Para que este modelo sea aplicable a una enfermedad es preciso que esta sea endémica, pues el modelo requiere la presencia de cierto nivel de infección para calcular los parámetros y determinar convergencias. En aquellos países donde ya esté reconocida la ausencia de infección, sería más apropiado utilizar como herramienta un modelo de árbol de hipótesis. Los autores recomiendan ahondar en esta línea de trabajo para poder extender a otras enfermedades el uso del modelo STOC free.

Risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers following an identified nosocomial COVID-19 exposure during waves 1-3 of the pandemic in Ireland.

Healthcare workers (HCWs) have increased exposure and subsequent risk of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). This case-control study was conducted to investigate the contemporaneous risks associated with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst HCWs following in-work exposure to a confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) case. We assessed the influence of demographic (age, sex, nationality, high risk co-morbidities and vaccination status) and work-related factors (job role, exposure location, contact type, personal protective equipment (PPE) use) on infection risk following nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 exposure. All contact tracing records within the hospital site during waves 1-3 of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ireland were screened to identify exposure events, cases and controls. In total, 285 cases and 1526 controls were enrolled, as a result of 1811 in-work exposure events with 745 index cases. We demonstrate that male sex, Eastern European nationality, exposure location, PPE use and vaccination status all impact the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection following nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 exposure. The findings draw attention to the need for continuing emphasis on PPE use and its persisting benefit in the era of COVID-19 vaccinations. We suggest that non-work-related factors may influence infection risk seen in certain ethnic groups and that infection risk in high-risk HCW roles (e.g. nursing) may be the result of repeated exposures rather than risks inherent to a single event.

Seroprevalence of Mycoplasma bovis in bulk milk samples in Irish dairy herds and risk factors associated with herd seropositive status.

Mycoplasma bovis is a serious disease of cattle worldwide; mastitis, pneumonia, and arthritis are particularly important clinical presentations in dairy herds. Mycoplasma bovis was first identified in Ireland in 1994, and the reporting of Mycoplasma-associated disease has substantially increased over the last 5 years. Despite the presumed endemic nature of M. bovis in Ireland, there is a paucity of data on the prevalence of infection, and the effect of this disease on the dairy industry. The aim of this observational study was to estimate apparent herd prevalence for M. bovis in Irish dairy herds using routinely collected bulk milk surveillance samples and to assess risk factors for herd seropositivity. In autumn 2018, 1,500 herds out of the 16,858 herds that submitted bulk tank milk (BTM) samples to the Department of Agriculture testing laboratory for routine surveillance were randomly selected for further testing. A final data set of 1,313 sampled herds with a BTM ELISA result were used for the analysis. Testing was conducted using an indirect ELISA kit (ID Screen Mycoplasma bovis). Herd-level risk factors were used as explanatory variables to determine potential risk factors associated with positive herd status (reflecting past or current exposure to M. bovis). A total of 588 of the 1,313 BTM samples were positive to M. bovis, providing an apparent herd prevalence of 0.45 (95% CI: 0.42, 0.47) in Irish dairy herds in autumn 2018. Multivariable analysis was conducted using logistic regression. The final model identified herd size, the number of neighboring farms, in-degree and county as statistically significant risk factors for herd BTM seropositivity to M. bovis. The results suggest a high apparent herd prevalence of seropositivity to M. bovis, and evidence that M. bovis infection is now endemic in the Irish dairy sector. In addition, risk factors identified are closely aligned to what we would expect of an infectious disease. Awareness raising and education about this important disease is warranted given the widespread nature of exposure and likely infection in Irish herds. Further work on the validation of diagnostic tests for herd-level diagnosis should be undertaken as a matter of priority.

Oral metronomic chemotherapy after definitive chemoradiation in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Improving outcomes in locally advanced esophageal/GEJ squamous cell cancer (SCC) is an unmet need. We investigated the addition of oral metronomic chemotherapy (OMC) following definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a randomized open-label integrated phase II/III study in patients with SCC of esophagus/GEJ following definitive CRT who had no radiologic evidence of progression, and no endoscopically detected disease. Randomization was 1:1 to OMC (celecoxib 200 mg twice daily and methotrexate 15 mg/m2 weekly) for 12 months or observation. The primary endpoint for the phase II portion was progression-free survival (PFS); secondary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and toxicity. P ≤ 0.2 for PFS was required to proceed to phase III. RESULTS: Between Jan 2016 and Dec 2019, we enrolled 151 patients for the phase II portion, 75 to OMC and 76 to observation. The tumor originated in the upper thoracic esophagus in 79% patients. Concurrent CRT consisted of median 63 Gy in a median of 35 fractions; concurrent chemotherapy was weekly paclitaxel + carboplatin in 91%. OMC was started at a median of 2.6 months (IQR 2.3-2.8) from CRT completion. Grade 3 or higher toxicities occurred in 18 patients (24%) in the OMC arm and 9 (12%) in the observation arm; P = 0.071. Median PFS was 25 months (95% CI, 17-58) in the OMC arm and was not attained [NA] (95% CI, 25-NA) in the observation arm; HR, 1.51, 95% CI, 1-2; P = 0.073. Median OS was 36 months (95% CI, 23-NA) in the OMC arm, and not attained (95% CI, NA-NA) in the observation arm; HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1-2.9; P = 0.023. CONCLUSION: Oral metronomic methotrexate and celecoxib in patients who have not progressed radiologically and have no endoscopic evidence of disease following radical CRT for locally advanced esophageal/GEJ SCC does not improve outcomes and may lower survival. [Funded by the TMC-Research Administration Council (TRAC); CHROME study (CHemoRadiotherapy followed by Oral Metronomic therapy in Esophageal cancer); ctri.nic.in number: CTRI/2015/09/006204]. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CTRI/2015/09/006204.

Quantification of risk factors for bovine viral diarrhea virus in cattle herds: A systematic search and meta-analysis of observational studies.

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is endemic in many parts of the world, and multiple countries have implemented surveillance activities for disease control or eradication. In such control programs, the disease-free status can be compromised by factors that pose risks for introduction or persistence of the virus. The aim of the present study was to gain a comprehensive overview of possible risk factors for BVDV infection in cattle herds in Europe and to assess their importance. Papers that considered risk factors for BVDV infection in cattle were identified through a systematic search. Further selection of papers eligible for quantitative analysis was performed using a predefined checklist, including (1) appropriate region (i.e., studies performed in Europe), (2) representativeness of the study population, (3) quality of statistical analysis, and (4) availability of sufficient quantitative data. In total, 18 observational studies were selected. Data were analyzed by a random-effects meta-analysis to obtain pooled estimates of the odds of BVDV infection. Meta-analyses were performed on 6 risk factors: herd type, herd size, participation in shows or markets, introduction of cattle, grazing, and contact with other cattle herds on pasture. Significant higher odds were found for dairy herds (odds ratio, OR = 1.63, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.06-2.50) compared with beef herds, for larger herds (OR = 1.04 for every 10 extra animals in the herd, 95% CI: 1.02-1.06), for herds that participate in shows or markets (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.10-1.91), for herds that introduced cattle into the herd (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.18-1.69), and for herds that share pasture or have direct contact with cattle of other herds at pasture (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.07-1.63). These pooled values must be interpreted with care, as there was a high level of heterogeneity between studies. However, they do give an indication of the importance of the most frequently studied risk factors and can therefore assist in the development, evaluation, and optimization of BVDV control programs.

A description and qualitative comparison of the elements of heterogeneous bovine viral diarrhea control programs that influence confidence of freedom.

For endemic infections in cattle that are not regulated at the European Union level, such as bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV), European Member States have implemented control or eradication programs (CEP) tailored to their specific situations. Different methods are used to assign infection-free status in CEP; therefore, the confidence of freedom associated with the "free" status generated by different CEP are difficult to compare, creating problems for the safe trade of cattle between territories. Safe trade would be facilitated with an output-based framework that enables a transparent and standardized comparison of confidence of freedom for CEP across herds, regions, or countries. The current paper represents the first step toward development of such a framework by seeking to describe and qualitatively compare elements of CEP that contribute to confidence of freedom. For this work, BVDV was used as a case study. We qualitatively compared heterogeneous BVDV CEP in 6 European countries: Germany, France, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Scotland. Information about BVDV CEP that were in place in 2017 and factors influencing the risk of introduction and transmission of BVDV (the context) were collected using an existing tool, with modifications to collect information about aspects of control and context. For the 6 participating countries, we ranked all individual elements of the CEP and their contexts that could influence the probability that cattle from a herd categorized as BVDV-free are truly free from infection. Many differences in the context and design of BVDV CEP were found. As examples, CEP were either mandatory or voluntary, resulting in variation in risks from neighboring herds, and risk factors such as cattle density and the number of imported cattle varied greatly between territories. Differences were also found in both testing protocols and definitions of freedom from disease. The observed heterogeneity in both the context and CEP design will create difficulties when comparing different CEP in terms of confidence of freedom from infection. These results highlight the need for a standardized practical methodology to objectively and quantitatively determine confidence of freedom resulting from different CEP around the world.

Johne's disease in Irish dairy herds: considerations for an effective national control programme.

The Irish dairy industry has established a reputation for the production of safe and healthy dairy products and is seeking to further expand its export market for high value dairy products. To support its reputation, stakeholders aim to control Johne's disease. To assist decision-makers determine the most appropriate design for an Irish programme, a narrative review of the scientific literature on the epidemiology of Johne's disease, and selected control programmes throughout the world was undertaken. Two modelling studies specifically commissioned by Animal Health Ireland to assess testing methods used to demonstrate confidence of freedom in herds and to evaluate a range of possible surveillance strategies provided additional information. The majority of control programmes tend to be voluntary, because of the unique epidemiology of Johne's disease and limited support for traditional regulatory approaches. While acknowledging that test performance and sub-clinical sero-negative shedders contributes to the spread of infection, a range of socio-political issues also exist that influence programme activities. The paper provides a rationale for the inclusion of a Veterinary Risk Assessment and Management Plan (VRAMP), including voluntary whole herd testing to identify infected herds and to support assurance-based trading through repeated rounds of negative testing, national surveillance for herd-level case-detection, and improved understanding of biosecurity management practices. Identification and promotion of drivers for industry and producer engagement in Ireland is likely to guide the future evolution of the Irish Johne's Control Programme (IJCP) and further enhance its success. The provision of training, education and extension activities may encourage farmers to adopt relevant farm management practices and help them recognize that they are ultimately responsible for their herd's health and biosecurity.

Evaluation of national surveillance methods for detection of Irish dairy herds infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the utility and cost-effectiveness of a range of national surveillance methods for paratuberculosis in Irish dairy herds. We simulated alternative surveillance strategies applied to dairy cattle herds for the detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-infected herds (case-detection) or for estimation of confidence of herd freedom from infection (assurance testing). Strategies simulated included whole-herd milk or serum serology, serology on cull cows at slaughter, bulk milk tank serology, environmental testing, and pooled fecal testing. None of the strategies evaluated were ideal for widespread national case-detection surveillance. Herd testing with milk or serum ELISA or pooled fecal testing were the most effective methods currently available for detection of MAP-infected herds, with median herd sensitivity >60% and 100% herd specificity, although they are relatively expensive for widespread use. Environmental sampling shows promise as an alternative, with median herd sensitivity of 69%, but is also expensive unless samples can be pooled and requires further validation under Irish conditions. Bulk tank milk testing is the lowest cost option and may be useful for detecting high-prevalence herds but had median herd sensitivity <10% and positive predictive value of 85%. Cull cow sampling strategies were also lower cost but had median herd sensitivity <40% and herd positive predictive values of <50%, resulting in an increased number of test-positive herds, each of which requires follow-up herd testing to clarify status. Possible false-positive herd testing results associated with prior tuberculosis testing also presented logistical issues for both cull cow and bulk milk testing. Whole-herd milk or serum ELISA testing are currently the preferred testing strategies to estimate confidence of herd freedom from MAP in dairy herds due to the good technical performance and moderate cost of these strategies for individual herd testing. Cull cow serology and bulk tank milk sampling provide only minimal assurance value, with confidence of herd freedom increasing only minimally above the prior estimate. Different testing strategies should be considered when deciding on cost-effective approaches for case-detection compared with those used for building confidence of herd freedom (assurance testing) as part of a national program.

Modeling of alternative testing strategies to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis infection in test-negative dairy herds in the Republic of Ireland.

In light of the various adverse effects of Johne's disease on animal productivity and the debate on the role of its causative organism, Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, in the etiology of Crohn's disease, major dairy-producing countries around the world have implemented national control programs aimed at reducing the prevalence of this infection in cattle. A pilot control program was initiated in Ireland in 2013, with a key objective to provide farmers with test-negative dairy herds with tools and knowledge to increase their confidence of freedom over time. The aim of this study was to estimate the confidence of freedom obtained in test-negative Irish dairy herds over time with various sampling scenarios and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of alternative scenarios for achieving an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in herds with no evidence of infection. A stochastic model was developed to simulate repeated annual testing of individual animals using ELISA and confirmatory assays over a period of 20 yr. Two scenarios modeled the current herd-screening options, whereas 14 alternative scenarios explored the effect of varying parameters from the current testing strategies, such as the frequency of testing, the eligibility criteria for selecting animals, the type of assay, the probability of introduction, and the assay sensitivity. Results showed that the current testing strategy with milk twice a year or serum once a year in all animals over 2 yr old provided the highest annual herd sensitivity, with a median value of 55%. Although the median confidence of freedom increased over time for all scenarios, the time required to reach 90 and 95% confidence of freedom was highly variable between scenarios. Under the testing scenario where serum tests were used once a year, the confidence of freedom reached 90% after 4 yr and 95% after 7 yr of testing. Some of the alternative scenarios achieved an acceptable level of confidence of freedom in a reasonable timeframe and at lesser cost than the current testing strategies. The results of this work are used to provide recommendations for the next phases of the program.

Comparative evaluation of extracellular ß-d-fructofuranosidase in submerged and solid-state fermentation produced by newly identified Bacillus subtilis strain.

AIMS: To screen and identify a potential extracellular ß-d-fructofuranosidase or invertase-producing bacterium from soil, and comparatively evaluate the enzyme biosynthesis under submerged and solid-state fermentation (SSF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Extracellular invertase-producing bacteria were screened from soil. Identification of the potent bacterium was performed based on microscopic examinations and 16S rDNA molecular sequencing. Bacillus subtilis LYN12 invertase secretion was surplus with wheat bran humidified with molasses medium (70%), with elevated activity at 48 h and 37°C under SSF, whereas under submerged conditions, increased activity was observed at 24 h and 45°C in the molasses medium. The study revealed a simple fermentative medium for elevated production of extracellular invertase from a fast growing Bacillus strain. CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial invertases are scarce and limited reports are available. By far, this is the first report on the comparative analysis of optimization of extracellular invertase synthesis from B. subtilis strain by submerged and SSF. The use of agricultural residues increased yields resulting in the development of a cost-effective and stable approach. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Bacillus subtilis LYN12 invertase possesses excellent fermenting capability to utilize agro-industrial residues under submerged and solid-state conditions. This could be a beneficial candidate in food and beverage processing industries.

Salmonella pyomyositis with concurrent sacroiliac osteomyelitis presenting as piriformis syndrome: A rare case.

A-21-year old male admitted with fever and piriformis syndrome, typically associated with gluteal region pain radiating down the thigh, was evaluated and found to have pyomyositis involving piriformis and osteomyelitis with sacroiliac joint affection on radiological imaging. Salmonella serotype typhi was isolated from blood culture. He was treated with intravenous Ceftriaxone for 6 weeks with signs of recovery documented clinically as well as on imaging studies. Salmonella pyomyositis with osteomyelitis in an immunocompetent patient with no previous hematological or endocrine disorder makes this case an unusual presentation.

Key Factors Affecting Reproductive Success of Thoroughbred Mares and Stallions on a Commercial Stud Farm.

To evaluate factors contributing to fertility of thoroughbred mares, data from 3743 oestrous periods of 2385 mares were collected on a large thoroughbred farm in Ireland. Fourteen stallions (mean age 8.3 years; range 4-15 years) had bred 2385 mares (mean age 9.4 years; range 3-24 years). Maiden mares accounted for 12%, mares with a foal at foot for 64%, and barren, slipped or rested mares for 24% of the total. The mean pregnancy rate per cycle was 67.8% (68.6% in year 1 and 66.9% in year 2). Backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was utilized to develop two models to evaluate mare factors, including mare age, reproductive status, month of foaling, dystocia, month of cover, foal heat, cycle number, treatments, walk-in status and stallion factors including stallion identity, stallion age, shuttle status, time elapsed between covers and high stallion usage on the per cycle pregnancy rate and pregnancy loss. Old age (p < 0.001) and cover within 20 days post-partum (p < 0.003) were associated with lowered pregnancy rates. High mare age (p < 0.05) and barren, slipped or rested reproductive status (p = 0.05) increased the likelihood of pregnancy loss. Uterine inflammation or infection, if appropriately treated, did not affect fertility. Only high usage of stallions (used more than 21 times in previous week) was associated with lowered (p = 0.009) pregnancy rates. However, shuttle stallions were more likely to have increased (p = 0.035) pregnancy survival, perhaps reflecting a bias in stallion selection. In conclusion, mare age exerted the greatest influence on fertility; nonetheless, thoroughbreds can be effectively managed to achieve high reproductive performance in a commercial setting.

Prevalence and distribution of exposure to Schmallenberg virus in Irish cattle during October 2012 to November 2013.

BACKGROUND: Schmallenberg virus (SBV) was first identified in November 2011. It is a novel Orthobunyavirus (family Bunyaviridae) whose main ill effect is congenital malformation of the musculoskeletal and central nervous systems. It is borne by Culicoides spp., and has spread extensively in western Europe. The first case of SBV in Ireland was diagnosed in October 2012. It was anticipated that once the virus emerged in Ireland that there would be wide scale or nationwide spread over the course of the 2013 vector season. The objectives of this study were to determine the seroprevalence and distribution of exposure to Schmallenberg virus in Irish cattle from November 2012 to November 2013. METHODS: Samples of brain for the pathology based surveillance were collected from malformed bovine and ovine foetuses submitted for post mortem examination. These samples were tested for SBV using RT-qPCR. Three serological surveys were carried out on sera submitted for the national brucellosis eradicartion programme. A spatial analysis of both sets of data was carried out. RESULTS: Between October 2012 and 10th May 2013, SBV was confirmed by RT-qPCR in brain tissues from malformed foetuses obtained from 49 cattle herds and 30 sheep flocks in Ireland. In national serosurveys conducted between November 2012 until November 2013 the herd-level and animal-level SBV seroprevalences in cattle were 53 and 36 % respectively for the first survey, 51 and 35 % for the second survey and 53 and 33 % for the third survey. The herd level seroprevalence in counties ranged from 0 to 100 %, with the counties in the south and southeast having the highest seroprevalence (>50 %), the midlands a moderate herd level seroprevalence (10-50 %) while northern and north western counties had a low herd level seroprevalence (0-10 %). There was close spatial agreement between the results of the two different targeted surveillance strategies. CONCLUSIONS: At the end of the 2012 vector season, there was widespread exposure to SBV among herds in southern and south eastern Ireland. During 2013, there was little or no evidence of further outward spread, unlike the situation in several other European countries. Given the lack of evidence for circulation of the virus since 2012, it is likely that the younger age cohort in herds previously exposed to SBV and substantial proportions of animals of all ages on the margins of affected areas are immunologically naïve to SBV, and would be susceptible to infection if the virus were to re-emerge.

Evaluation of testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis.

As part of a broader control strategy within herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), individual animal testing is generally conducted to identify infected animals for action, usually culling. Opportunities are now available to quantitatively compare different testing strategies (combinations of tests) in known infected herds. This study evaluates the effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be MAP infected. A model was developed, taking account of both within-herd infection dynamics and test performance, to simulate the use of different tests at a single round of testing in a known infected herd. Model inputs included the number of animals at different stages of infection, the sensitivity and specificity of each test, and the costs of testing and culling. Testing strategies included either milk or serum ELISA alone or with fecal culture in series. Model outputs included effectiveness (detection fraction, the proportion of truly infected animals in the herd that are successfully detected by the testing strategy), cost, and cost-effectiveness (testing cost per true positive detected, total cost per true positive detected). Several assumptions were made: MAP was introduced with a single animal and no management interventions were implemented to limit within-herd transmission of MAP before this test. In medium herds, between 7 and 26% of infected animals are detected at a single round of testing, the former using the milk ELISA and fecal culture in series 5 yr after MAP introduction and the latter using fecal culture alone 15 yr after MAP introduction. The combined costs of testing and culling at a single round of testing increases with time since introduction of MAP infection, with culling costs being much greater than testing costs. The cost-effectiveness of testing varied by testing strategy. It was also greater at 5 yr, compared with 10 or 15 yr, since MAP introduction, highlighting the importance of early detection. Future work is needed to evaluate these testing strategies in subsequent rounds of testing as well as accounting for different herd dynamics and different levels of herd biocontainment.

Investigating a dilution effect between somatic cell count and milk yield and estimating milk production losses in Irish dairy cattle.

Increased somatic cell counts (SCC) are associated with reduced milk yield. Additionally, it has been hypothesized that as milk yield increases, SCC is diluted in cattle without an intramammary infection (IMI). If the hypothesis is correct, estimates of SCC from high-yielding cattle without an IMI are likely to be lower than those from low-yielding cattle without an IMI. The objectives of this paper were to investigate the presence of a potential dilution effect between SCC and milk yield, overall and by parity, and to estimate lactation milk production losses with increasing SCC in Irish dairy cattle. The data consisted of 100 randomly selected herds from all milk recording herds between 2008 and 2010. The data set comprised 8,229 cows, of which approximately 90% were Holstein or Holstein crossbred animals. Various adjustments were used to investigate the presence of a potential dilution effect between SCC and milk yield; additionally, lactation milk production losses with increasing SCC and parity were estimated. The data had an inherent hierarchical structure, with lactations nested within cows and cows within herds; thus, a linear mixed model with 2 random effects was used. We found no evidence of a dilution effect of SCC with increasing milk yield in Irish dairy cattle. Average milk production losses were estimated, and they increased with increasing SCC compared with the referent of ≤ 50,000 cells/mL. Additionally, for all SCC values for parities 1 to 3, this production loss increased significantly with increasing parity. Estimated milk losses for parities 4 and 5 did not differ, and differences between parities 3 and 4 were significant only for SCC values <300,000 cells/mL. The estimated milk loss with increasing SCC varies greatly across studies, with the results from the current study exceeding most previously published results (except for results from the UK). Several factors could explain these differences, including geographic factors such as milk yield and predominant mastitis pathogens. The dilution effect warrants further work, as does the effect of prior duration of increased SCC on milk yield and the potential for compensation of milk yield losses over a lactation.

Opportunities and constraints to improving milk quality in Ireland: enabling change through collective action.

Ireland plays a key role in contributing to the global supply of dairy produce, and increasing international demand, as well as the abolition of milk quotas in the European Union in 2015, present opportunities for the Irish milk industry. Improving milk quality is required to maximize these opportunities. National action on milk quality is spearheaded by Animal Health Ireland, yet the potential for collective action at an industry level is undermined by the inability of individual stakeholders to accept responsibility for action. In-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with n=12 stakeholder representatives. The theoretical concepts of collective action (i.e., when a group of people with a shared interest undertake some kind of voluntary common action in pursuit of that shared interest) is applied to understanding the results and identifying a collective way forward. Though consensus is apparent on the need to improve milk quality, differences exist about individual responsibility and the best way to achieve higher quality standards. The propensity for collective action is undermined by shifting responsibility to other stakeholders, stakeholder positions, trust concerns, and concerns over the commitment of other stakeholders to cooperate. Understanding how collective action works provides Animal Health Ireland with a knowledge framework in which to build stakeholder consensus. The paper concludes with practical examples of how Animal Health Ireland continues to apply this understanding by bringing individual stakeholders together to achieve milk quality improvement.

The effect of somatic cell count data adjustment and interpretation, as outlined in European Union legislation, on herd eligibility to supply raw milk for processing of dairy products.

Somatic cell count (SCC) limits are a key component of national and international regulation for milk quality. As yet, very limited work has been published on SCC regulatory standards, including on the effect of different approaches to SCC data adjustment and interpretation. This study examines the effect of SCC data adjustment and interpretation, as outlined in current European Union (EU) legislation, on herd eligibility to supply raw milk for processing of dairy products for human consumption, using Irish data for illustration. The study used Irish milk-recording data as a proxy for bulk tank SCC (BTSCC) data, to calculate an unadjusted monthly SCC value for each herd during each month of participation. Subsequently, 4 data adjustments were applied, as outlined in EU and national legislation: seasonal adjustment; 3-mo rolling geometric average, without accounting for a break in the supply; 3-mo rolling geometric average, after accounting for a break in the supply; and seasonal adjustment and 3-mo rolling geometric average combined, after accounting for a break in the supply. Analyses were conducted to examine the effect, during the period from 2004 to 2010, of data adjustment on the percentage of herds with herd SCC >400,000 cells/mL. In all, 4 interpretation scenarios, incorporating different data adjustment combinations, were used to estimate herd eligibility (compliant, under warning, or suspended, as defined by legislation) to supply raw milk for processing. The 4 methods of data adjustment each led to a sizable reduction (6.7, 5.0, 5.3, and 11.1 percentage points, respectively, compared with the unadjusted data) in the percentage of herds exceeding a herd SCC of 400,000 cells/mL. Herd eligibility varied by interpretation scenarios, in particular those incorporating seasonal adjustment. The study provides new perspectives on the effect of data adjustment on herd SCC and of interpretation scenarios on herd eligibility. The results provide an illustrative, rather than definitive, picture of this effect, as national authorities use BTSCC data when determining herd eligibility, whereas this study was conducted using milk-recording data as a proxy. Some aspects of the primary EU legislation are unclear, which may lead to differences in interpretation and application. The potential impact of data adjustment and milk purchaser pricing on farm-level mastitis control in Ireland is considered.

The effect of alternative testing strategies and bio-exclusion practices on Johne's disease risk in test-negative herds.

Herd classification is a key component of national Johne's disease (JD) control programs. Herds are categorized on the basis of test results, and separate sub-programs are followed for test-positive and test-negative herds. However, a test-negative herd result does not necessarily equate to JD freedom for reasons relating to disease pathogenesis and available diagnostic tests. Thus, in several countries, JD control programs define test-negative herds as having a "low risk" of infection below a specified prevalence. However, the approach is qualitative, and little quantitative work is available on herd-level estimates of probability of freedom in test-negative herds. This paper examines the effect over time of alternative testing strategies and bio-exclusion practices on JD risk in test-negative herds. A simulation model was developed in the programming language R. Key model inputs included sensitivity and specificity estimates for 3 individual animal diagnostic tests (serum ELISA, milk ELISA, and fecal culture), design prevalence, testing options, and testing costs. Key model outputs included the probability that infection will be detected if present at the design prevalence or greater (herd sensitivity; SeH), the probability that infection in the herd is either absent or at very low prevalence (i.e., less than the design prevalence; ProbF), the probability of an uninfected herd producing a false-positive result [P(False+)], and mean testing cost (HerdCost) for different testing strategies. The output ProbF can be updated periodically, incorporating data from additional herd testing and information on cattle purchases, and could form the basis for an output-based approach to herd classification. A high ProbF is very difficult to achieve, reflecting the low sensitivity of the evaluated tests. Moreover, ProbF is greatly affected by any risk of introduction of infection, decreasing in herds with poor bio-exclusion practices despite ongoing negative test results. The value of P(False+) was substantial when tests with imperfect specificity were used. Testing strategies can substantially influence testing costs but with little effect on test performance. This study illustrates an output-based approach to herd classification, with potential for national and field applications.