A metacommunity perspective on source­sink dynamics and management: the Baltic Sea as a case study.

The degree to which metapopulation processes influence fish stock dynamics is a largely unresolved issue in marine science and management, especially for highly mobile species such as Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and herring (Clupea harengus). The Baltic Sea comprises a heterogeneous oceanographic environment that structures the spatial and temporal distribution of the dominant species cod, herring, and sprat (Sprattus sprattus). Despite local differences, the stocks are traditionally managed as homogeneous units. Here, we present a metacommunity-perspective on source­sink dynamics of Baltic Sea fish stocks by using a spatially disaggregated statistical food web model. The model is fitted to area-specific time series of multiple abiotic and biotic variables using state-space methods. Our analysis reveals pronounced net fluxes between areas, indicative of source­sink dynamics, as well as area-specific differences in species interactions (i.e., density dependence, competition, and predator­prey) and the degree of fishing and climate impact on survival and recruitment. Furthermore, model simulations show that decreasing exploitation pressure in the source area for cod (without reallocating fishing effort) produces an increase in neighboring sink habitats, but a decline of prey species in response to increased predation. Our approach provides valuable insight concerning metacommunity-structuring of marine fish and may serve as an important tool for implementing sustainable management strategies under the ecosystem approach to marine and fisheries management.

Biological ensemble modeling to evaluate potential futures of living marine resources.

Natural resource management requires approaches to understand and handle sources of uncertainty in future responses of complex systems to human activities. Here we present one such approach, the "biological ensemble modeling approach," using the Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) as an example. The core of the approach is to expose an ensemble of models with different ecological assumptions to climate forcing, using multiple realizations of each climate scenario. We simulated the long-term response of cod to future fishing and climate change in seven ecological models ranging from single-species to food web models. These models were analyzed using the "biological ensemble modeling approach" by which we (1) identified a key ecological mechanism explaining the differences in simulated cod responses between models, (2) disentangled the uncertainty caused by differences in ecological model assumptions from the statistical uncertainty of future climate, and (3) identified results common for the whole model ensemble. Species interactions greatly influenced the simulated response of cod to fishing and climate, as well as the degree to which the statistical uncertainty of climate trajectories carried through to uncertainty of cod responses. Models ignoring the feedback from prey on cod showed large interannual fluctuations in cod dynamics and were more sensitive to the underlying uncertainty of climate forcing than models accounting for such stabilizing predator-prey feedbacks. Yet in all models, intense fishing prevented recovery, and climate change further decreased the cod population. Our study demonstrates how the biological ensemble modeling approach makes it possible to evaluate the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in future species responses, as well as to seek scientific conclusions and sustainable management solutions robust to uncertainty of food web processes in the face of climate change.

Bioenergetics modelling of growth processes in parasitized Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.).

Changes in physiological processes can reveal how individuals respond to environmental stressors. It can be difficult to link physiological responses to changes in vital rates such as growth, reproduction and survival. Here, bioenergetics modelling can aid in understanding non-intuitive outcomes from stressor combinations. Building on an established bioenergetics model, we examine the potential effects of parasite infection on growth rate and body condition. Parasites represent an overlooked biotic factor, despite their known effects on the physiology of the host organism. As a case study, we use the host-parasite system of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) infected with the parasitic nematode Contraceacum osculatum. Eastern Baltic cod have during the past decade experienced increasing infection loads with C. osculatum that have been shown to lead to physiological changes. We hypothesized that infection with parasites affects cod growth negatively as previous studies reveal that the infections lead to reduced energy turnover, severe liver disease and reduced nutritional condition. To test this, we implemented new variables into the bioenergetics model representing the physiological changes in infected fish and parameterized these based on previous experimental data. We found that growth rate and body condition decreased with increased infection load. Highly infected cod reach a point of no return where their energy intake cannot maintain a surplus energy balance, which may eventually lead to induced mortality. In conclusion, parasite infections cannot be ignored when assessing drivers of fish stock dynamics.

Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs.

Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments.

Comparative analysis of marine ecosystems: workshop on predator-prey interactions.

Climate and human influences on marine ecosystems are largely manifested by changes in predator-prey interactions. It follows that ecosystem-based management of the world's oceans requires a better understanding of food web relationships. An international workshop on predator-prey interactions in marine ecosystems was held at the Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA on 16-18 March 2010. The meeting brought together scientists from diverse fields of expertise including theoretical ecology, animal behaviour, fish and seabird ecology, statistics, fisheries science and ecosystem modelling. The goals of the workshop were to critically examine the methods of scaling-up predator-prey interactions from local observations to systems, the role of shifting ecological processes with scale changes, and the complexity and organizational structure in trophic interactions.

Marine ecosystem connectivity mediated by migrant-resident interactions and the concomitant cross-system flux of lipids.

Accumulating research argues that migrants influence the functioning and productivity of local habitats and ecosystems along migration routes and potentially drive cross-system energy fluxes of considerable magnitude, yet empirical documentation of local ecological effects and descriptions of the underlying mechanisms are surprisingly rare. In this study, we discovered migrant-resident interactions and substantial cross-system lipid transportation in the transition zone between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea where a resident cod population (predators) was found to interact with a herring population (prey) on a seasonal basis. We traced the lipids, using fatty acid trophic markers (FATM), from the herring feeding grounds in the North Sea to the cod livers in the Western Baltic Sea. Time series analysis of population dynamics indicated that population-level production of cod is positively affected by the herring subsidies. However, the underlying mechanisms were more complicated than anticipated. During the herring season, large cod received most of its dietary lipids from the herring, whereas smaller cod were prevented from accessing the lipid pool due to a mismatch in predator-prey size ratio. Furthermore, while the herring were extremely rich in bulk energy, they were surprisingly poor in a specific functional fatty acid. Hence, our study was the first to illustrate how the magnitude cross-system fluxes of subsidies in migrant-resident systems are potentially constrained by the size structure of the resident predator population and the nutritional quality of the migrants.

Hypoxic areas, density-dependence and food limitation drive the body condition of a heavily exploited marine fish predator.

Investigating the factors regulating fish condition is crucial in ecology and the management of exploited fish populations. The body condition of cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea has dramatically decreased during the past two decades, with large implications for the fishery relying on this resource. Here, we statistically investigated the potential drivers of the Baltic cod condition during the past 40 years using newly compiled fishery-independent biological data and hydrological observations. We evidenced a combination of different factors operating before and after the ecological regime shift that occurred in the Baltic Sea in the early 1990s. The changes in cod condition related to feeding opportunities, driven either by density-dependence or food limitation, along the whole period investigated and to the fivefold increase in the extent of hypoxic areas in the most recent 20 years. Hypoxic areas can act on cod condition through different mechanisms related directly to species physiology, or indirectly to behaviour and trophic interactions. Our analyses found statistical evidence for an effect of the hypoxia-induced habitat compression on cod condition possibly operating via crowding and density-dependent processes. These results furnish novel insights into the population dynamics of Baltic Sea cod that can aid the management of this currently threatened population.

Effects of hypoxic exposure during feeding on SDA and postprandial cardiovascular physiology in the Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua.

Some Atlantic cod in the Bornholm Basin undertake vertical foraging migrations into severely hypoxic bottom water. Hypoxic conditions can reduce the postprandial increase in gastrointestinal blood flow (GBF). This could subsequently postpone or reduce the postprandial increase in oxygen consumption (MO(2)), i.e. the SDA, leading to a disturbed digestion. Additionally, a restricted oxygen uptake could result in an oxygen debt that needs to be compensated for upon return to normoxic waters and this may also affect the ability to process the food. Long-term cardio-respiratory measurements were made on fed G. morhua in order to understand how the cardio-respiratory system of feeding fish respond to a period of hypoxia and a subsequent return to normoxia. These were exposed to 35% water oxygen saturation for 90 minutes, equivalent to the time and oxygen level cod voluntarily endure when searching for food in the Bornholm Basin. We found that i) gastric and intestinal blood flows, cardiac output and MO(2) increased after feeding, ii) gastric and intestinal blood flows were spared in hypoxia, and iii) there were no indications of an oxygen debt at the end of the hypoxic period. The magnitude and time course of the measured variables are similar to values obtained from fish not exposed to the hypoxic period. In conclusion, when cod in the field search for and ingest prey under moderate hypoxic conditions they appear to stay within safe limits of oxygen availability as we saw no indications of an oxygen debt, or negative influence on digestive capacity, when simulating field observations.