The Effect of Nationwide Organized Cancer Screening Programs on Gastric Cancer Mortality: A Synthetic Control Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Nationwide organized gastric cancer (GC) screening programs have been running for decades in South Korea and Japan. This study conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to assess the population impact of these programs on GC mortality. METHODS: We used the flexible synthetic control method (SCM) to estimate the effect of the screening programs on age-standardized GC mortality and other upper gastrointestinal (UGI) diseases (esophageal cancer and peptic ulcer) among people aged ≥40 years. World Health Organization mortality data and country-level covariates from the World Bank and the Global Burden of Diseases study were used for the analyses. We compared postintervention trends in outcome with the counterfactual trend of the synthetic control and estimated average postintervention rate ratios (RRs) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The preintervention fits were acceptable for the analyses of South Korea and Japan's GC mortality but poor for Japan's other UGI disease mortality. The average postintervention RRs were 0.83 (95% CI, 0.71-0.96) for GC mortality and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.57-0.90) for other UGI disease mortality in South Korea. The RR reached 0.59 by the 15th year after the initiation of nationwide screening. For Japan, the average RRs were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.88-1.07) for GC mortality and 0.93 (95% CI, 0.68-1.28) for other UGI disease mortality. Sensitivity analysis reveals the result for Japan may potentially be biased. CONCLUSIONS: South Korea's nationwide GC screening has apparent benefits, whereas the Japanese program's effectiveness is uncertain. The experiences of South Korea and Japan could serve as a reference for other countries.

Value of intravenous thrombolysis in endovascular treatment for large-vessel anterior circulation stroke: individual participant data meta-analysis of six randomised trials.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous thrombolysis is recommended before endovascular treatment, but its value has been questioned in patients who are admitted directly to centres capable of endovascular treatment. Existing randomised controlled trials have indicated non-inferiority of endovascular treatment alone or have been statistically inconclusive. We formed the Improving Reperfusion Strategies in Acute Ischaemic Stroke collaboration to assess non-inferiority of endovascular treatment alone versus intravenous thrombolysis plus endovascular treatment. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis to establish non-inferiority of endovascular treatment alone versus intravenous thrombolysis plus endovascular treatment. We searched PubMed and MEDLINE with the terms "stroke", "endovascular treatment", "intravenous thrombolysis", and synonyms for articles published from database inception to March 9, 2023. We included randomised controlled trials on the topic of interest, without language restrictions. Authors of the identified trials agreed to take part, and individual participant data were provided by the principal investigators of the respective trials and collated centrally by the collaborators. Our primary outcome was the 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score. Non-inferiority of endovascular treatment alone was assessed using a lower boundary of 0·82 for the 95% CI around the adjusted common odds ratio (acOR) for shift towards improved outcome (analogous to 5% absolute difference in functional independence) with ordinal regression. We used mixed-effects models for all analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023411986. FINDINGS: We identified 1081 studies, and six studies (n=2313; 1153 participants randomly assigned to receive endovascular treatment alone and 1160 randomly assigned to receive intravenous thrombolysis and endovascular treatment) were eligible for analysis. The risk of bias of the included studies was low to moderate. Variability between studies was small, and mainly related to the choice and dose of the thrombolytic drug and country of execution. The median mRS score at 90 days was 3 (IQR 1-5) for participants who received endovascular treatment alone and 2 (1-4) for participants who received intravenous thrombolysis plus endovascular treatment (acOR 0·89, 95% CI 0·76-1·04). Any intracranial haemorrhage (0·82, 0·68-0·99) occurred less frequently with endovascular treatment alone than with intravenous thrombolysis plus endovascular treatment. Symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage and mortality rates did not differ significantly. INTERPRETATION: We did not establish non-inferiority of endovascular treatment alone compared with intravenous thrombolysis plus endovascular treatment in patients presenting directly at endovascular treatment centres. Further research could focus on cost-effectiveness analysis and on individualised decisions when patient characteristics, medication shortages, or delays are expected to offset a potential benefit of administering intravenous thrombolysis before endovascular treatment. FUNDING: Stryker and Amsterdam University Medical Centers, University of Amsterdam.

Endovascular treatment versus no endovascular treatment after 6-24 h in patients with ischaemic stroke and collateral flow on CT angiography (MR CLEAN-LATE) in the Netherlands: a multicentre, open-label, blinded-endpoint, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Endovascular treatment for anterior circulation ischaemic stroke is effective and safe within a 6 h window. MR CLEAN-LATE aimed to assess efficacy and safety of endovascular treatment for patients treated in the late window (6-24 h from symptom onset or last seen well) selected on the basis of the presence of collateral flow on CT angiography (CTA). METHODS: MR CLEAN-LATE was a multicentre, open-label, blinded-endpoint, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial done in 18 stroke intervention centres in the Netherlands. Patients aged 18 years or older with ischaemic stroke, presenting in the late window with an anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion and collateral flow on CTA, and a neurological deficit score of at least 2 on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale were included. Patients who were eligible for late-window endovascular treatment were treated according to national guidelines (based on clinical and perfusion imaging criteria derived from the DAWN and DEFUSE-3 trials) and excluded from MR CLEAN-LATE enrolment. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive endovascular treatment or no endovascular treatment (control), in addition to best medical treatment. Randomisation was web based, with block sizes ranging from eight to 20, and stratified by centre. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days after randomisation. Safety outcomes included all-cause mortality at 90 days after randomisation and symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage. All randomly assigned patients who provided deferred consent or died before consent could be obtained comprised the modified intention-to-treat population, in which the primary and safety outcomes were assessed. Analyses were adjusted for predefined confounders. Treatment effect was estimated with ordinal logistic regression and reported as an adjusted common odds ratio (OR) with a 95% CI. This trial was registered with the ISRCTN, ISRCTN19922220. FINDINGS: Between Feb 2, 2018, and Jan 27, 2022, 535 patients were randomly assigned, and 502 (94%) patients provided deferred consent or died before consent was obtained (255 in the endovascular treatment group and 247 in the control group; 261 [52%] females). The median mRS score at 90 days was lower in the endovascular treatment group than in the control group (3 [IQR 2-5] vs 4 [2-6]), and we observed a shift towards better outcomes on the mRS for the endovascular treatment group (adjusted common OR 1·67 [95% CI 1·20-2·32]). All-cause mortality did not differ significantly between groups (62 [24%] of 255 patients vs 74 [30%] of 247 patients; adjusted OR 0·72 [95% CI 0·44-1·18]). Symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage occurred more often in the endovascular treatment group than in the control group (17 [7%] vs four [2%]; adjusted OR 4·59 [95% CI 1·49-14·10]). INTERPRETATION: In this study, endovascular treatment was efficacious and safe for patients with ischaemic stroke caused by an anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion who presented 6-24 h from onset or last seen well, and who were selected on the basis of the presence of collateral flow on CTA. Selection of patients for endovascular treatment in the late window could be primarily based on the presence of collateral flow. FUNDING: Collaboration for New Treatments of Acute Stroke consortium, Dutch Heart Foundation, Stryker, Medtronic, Cerenovus, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, and the Netherlands Brain Foundation.

Pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Eastern versus Western countries: meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Locally advanced oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma can be treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or chemotherapy followed by oesophagectomy. Discrepancies in pathological response rates have been reported between studies from Eastern versus Western countries. The aim of this study was to compare the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in Eastern versus Western countries. METHODS: Databases were searched until November 2022 for studies reporting pCR rates after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Multi-level meta-analyses were performed to pool pCR rates separately for cohorts from studies performed in centres in the Sinosphere (East) or in Europe and the Anglosphere (West). RESULTS: For neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, 51 Eastern cohorts (5636 patients) and 20 Western cohorts (3039 patients) were included. Studies from Eastern countries included more men, younger patients, more proximal tumours, and more cT4 and cN+ disease. Patients in the West were more often treated with high-dose radiotherapy, whereas patients in the East were more often treated with a platinum + fluoropyrimidine regimen. The pooled pCR rate after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was 31.7% (95% c.i. 29.5% to 34.1%) in Eastern cohorts versus 40.4% (95% c.i. 35.0% to 45.9%) in Western cohorts (fixed-effect P = 0.003). For cohorts with similar cTNM stages, pooled pCR rates for the East and the West were 32.5% and 41.9% respectively (fixed-effect P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: The pathological response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is less favourable in patients treated in Eastern countries compared with Western countries. Despite efforts to investigate accounting factors, the discrepancy in pCR rate cannot be entirely explained by differences in patient, tumour, or treatment characteristics.

Time to Treatment With Intravenous Thrombolysis Before Thrombectomy and Functional Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Meta-Analysis.

Importance: The benefit of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) for acute ischemic stroke declines with longer time from symptom onset, but it is not known whether a similar time dependency exists for IVT followed by thrombectomy. Objective: To determine whether the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone decreases with treatment time from symptom onset. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data meta-analysis from 6 randomized clinical trials comparing IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone. Enrollment was between January 2017 and July 2021 at 190 sites in 15 countries. All participants were eligible for IVT and thrombectomy and presented directly at thrombectomy-capable stroke centers (n = 2334). For this meta-analysis, only patients with an anterior circulation large-vessel occlusion were included (n = 2313). Exposure: Interval from stroke symptom onset to expected administration of IVT and treatment with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome analysis tested whether the association between the allocated treatment (IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone) and disability at 90 days (7-level modified Rankin Scale [mRS] score range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]; minimal clinically important difference for the rates of mRS scores of 0-2: 1.3%) varied with times from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT. Results: In 2313 participants (1160 in IVT plus thrombectomy group vs 1153 in thrombectomy alone group; median age, 71 [IQR, 62 to 78] years; 44.3% were female), the median time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT was 2 hours 28 minutes (IQR, 1 hour 46 minutes to 3 hours 17 minutes). There was a statistically significant interaction between the time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT and the association of allocated treatment with functional outcomes (ratio of adjusted common odds ratio [OR] per 1-hour delay, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72 to 0.97], P = .02 for interaction). The benefit of IVT plus thrombectomy decreased with longer times from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT (adjusted common OR for a 1-step mRS score shift toward improvement, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.13 to 1.96] at 1 hour, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.04 to 1.49] at 2 hours, and 1.04 [95% CI, 0.88 to 1.23] at 3 hours). For a mRS score of 0, 1, or 2, the predicted absolute risk difference was 9% (95% CI, 3% to 16%) at 1 hour, 5% (95% CI, 1% to 9%) at 2 hours, and 1% (95% CI, -3% to 5%) at 3 hours. After 2 hours 20 minutes, the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy was not statistically significant and the point estimate crossed the null association at 3 hours 14 minutes. Conclusions and Relevance: In patients presenting at thrombectomy-capable stroke centers, the benefit associated with IVT plus thrombectomy vs thrombectomy alone was time dependent and statistically significant only if the time from symptom onset to expected administration of IVT was short.

Faecal occult blood loss accurately predicts future detection of colorectal cancer. A prognostic model.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prognostic potential of repeated faecal haemoglobin (F-Hb) concentration measurements in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Prognostic model. SETTING: Dutch biennial FIT-based screening programme during 2014-2018. PARTICIPANTS: 265 881 participants completing three rounds of FIT, with negative test results (F-Hb <47 µg Hb/g faeces) in rounds 1 and 2. INTERVENTIONS: Colonoscopy follow-up in participants with a positive FIT (F-Hb ≥47 µg Hb/g faeces). MAIN OUTCOMES: We evaluated prognostic models for detecting advanced neoplasia (AN) and CRC in round 3, with as predictors, participant age, sex, F-Hb in rounds 1 and 2, and categories/combinations/non-linear transformations of F-Hb. Primary evaluation criteria included: risk prediction accuracy (calibration), discrimination of participants with versus without AN or CRC (optimism-adjusted C-statistics, range 0.5-1.0), the degree of risk stratification and C-statistics in external validation. RESULTS: Among study participants, 8806 (3.3%) had a positive FIT result, 3254 (1.2%) had AN detected and 557 (0.2%) had cancer. F-Hb concentrations in rounds 1 and 2 were the strongest outcome predictors, with adjusted ORs of up to 9.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 11.7) for the highest F-Hb category. Risk predictions matched the observed risk for most participants (calibration intercept -0.008 to -0.099; slope 0.982-0.998), and discriminated participants with versus without AN or CRC with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.75), respectively. The predicted risk ranged from 0.4% to 36.7% for AN and from 0.0% to 5.5% for CRC across participants. In external validation, the model retained similar discrimination accuracy for AN (C-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) and CRC (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.91). CONCLUSION: Participants at lower versus higher risk of future AN or CRC can be accurately identified based on their age, sex and particularly, prior F-Hb concentrations. Risk stratification should be considered based on this information.

Safety and efficacy of aspirin, unfractionated heparin, both, or neither during endovascular stroke treatment (MR CLEAN-MED): an open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Aspirin and unfractionated heparin are often used during endovascular stroke treatment to improve reperfusion and outcomes. However, the effects and risks of anti-thrombotics for this indication are unknown. We therefore aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of intravenous aspirin, unfractionated heparin, both, or neither started during endovascular treatment in patients with ischaemic stroke. METHODS: We did an open-label, multicentre, randomised controlled trial with a 2 × 3 factorial design in 15 centres in the Netherlands. We enrolled adult patients (ie, ≥18 years) with ischaemic stroke due to an intracranial large-vessel occlusion in the anterior circulation in whom endovascular treatment could be initiated within 6 h of symptom onset. Eligible patients had a score of 2 or more on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and a CT or MRI ruling out intracranial haemorrhage. Randomisation was done using a web-based procedure with permuted blocks and stratified by centre. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either periprocedural intravenous aspirin (300 mg bolus) or no aspirin, and randomly assigned (1:1:1) to receive moderate-dose unfractionated heparin (5000 IU bolus followed by 1250 IU/h for 6 h), low-dose unfractionated heparin (5000 IU bolus followed by 500 IU/h for 6 h), or no unfractionated heparin. The primary outcome was the score on the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. Symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage was the main safety outcome. Analyses were based on intention to treat, and treatment effects were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) or common ORs, with adjustment for baseline prognostic factors. This trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number, ISRCTN76741621. FINDINGS: Between Jan 22, 2018, and Jan 27, 2021, we randomly assigned 663 patients; of whom, 628 (95%) provided deferred consent or died before consent could be asked and were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. On Feb 4, 2021, after unblinding and analysis of the data, the trial steering committee permanently stopped patient recruitment and the trial was stopped for safety concerns. The risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage was higher in patients allocated to receive aspirin than in those not receiving aspirin (43 [14%] of 310 vs 23 [7%] of 318; adjusted OR 1·95 [95% CI 1·13-3·35]) as well as in patients allocated to receive unfractionated heparin than in those not receiving unfractionated heparin (44 [13%] of 332 vs 22 [7%] of 296; 1·98 [1·14-3·46]). Both aspirin (adjusted common OR 0·91 [95% CI 0·69-1·21]) and unfractionated heparin (0·81 [0·61-1·08]) led to a non-significant shift towards worse modified Rankin Scale scores. INTERPRETATION: Periprocedural intravenous aspirin and unfractionated heparin during endovascular stroke treatment are both associated with an increased risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage without evidence for a beneficial effect on functional outcome. FUNDING: The Collaboration for New Treatments of Acute Stroke consortium, the Brain Foundation Netherlands, the Ministry of Economic Affairs, Stryker, Medtronic, Cerenovus, and the Dutch Heart Foundation.

Biopsy prostate cancer perineural invasion and tumour load are associated with positive posterolateral margins at radical prostatectomy: implications for planning of nerve-sparing surgery.

AIMS: Radical prostatectomy (RP) for prostate cancer is frequently complicated by erectile dysfunction and urinary incontinence. However, sparing of the nerve bundles adjacent to the posterolateral sides of the prostate reduces the number of complications at the risk of positive surgical margins. Preoperative selection of men eligible for safe, nerve-sparing surgery is therefore needed. Our aim was to identify pathological factors associated with positive posterolateral surgical margins in men undergoing bilateral nerve-sparing RP. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prostate cancer patients undergoing RP with standardised intra-operative surgical margin assessment according to the NeuroSAFE technique were included. Preoperative biopsies were reviewed for grade group (GG), cribriform and/or intraductal carcinoma (CR/IDC), perineural invasion (PNI), cumulative tumour length and extraprostatic extension (EPE). Of 624 included patients, 573 (91.8%) received NeuroSAFE bilaterally and 51 (8.2%) unilaterally, resulting in a total of 1197 intraoperative posterolateral surgical margin assessments. Side-specific biopsy findings were correlated to ipsilateral NeuroSAFE outcome. Higher biopsy GG, CR/IDC, PNI, EPE, number of positive biopsies and cumulative tumour length were all associated with positive posterolateral margins. In multivariable bivariate logistic regression, ipsilateral PNI [odds ratio (OR) = 2.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.62-5.48; P < 0.001] and percentage of positive cores (OR = 1.18, 95% CI = 1.08-1.29; P < 0.001) were significant predictors for a positive posterolateral margin, while GG and CR/IDC were not. CONCLUSIONS: Ipsilateral PNI and percentage of positive cores were significant predictors for a positive posterolateral surgical margin at RP. Biopsy PNI and tumour volume can therefore support clinical decision-making on the level of nerve-sparing surgery in prostate cancer patients.

Clinical consequences of nonadherence to Barrett's esophagus surveillance recommendations: a Multicenter prospective cohort study.

Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments ≤ 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P ≤ 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies.

Effect of Intravenous Alteplase Treatment on First-Line Stent Retriever Versus Aspiration Alone During Endovascular Treatment.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess whether the effect of intravenous alteplase treatment (IVT) before endovascular treatment (EVT) on outcome is modified by first-line technique during EVT in IVT eligible patients. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis from MR CLEAN-NO IV (Multicenter Randomized Clinical Trial of Endovascular Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke in the Netherlands - Intravenous Treatment Followed by Intra-Arterial Treatment Versus Direct Intra-Arterial Treatment for Acute Ischemic Stroke Caused by a Proximal Intracranial Occlusion), a randomized trial of IVT followed by EVT versus EVT alone in patients presenting directly to EVT-capable centers. We included data from all patients who underwent EVT with a thrombectomy attempt. We compared patients treated with stent retriever (with or without aspiration) to aspiration alone as first-line EVT technique and assessed the interaction of first-line EVT technique with IVT treatment. Primary outcome was the 90-day modified Rankin Scale score, analyzed with mixed model ordinal regression for a shift towards better outcome. Secondary outcomes included successful reperfusion (extended Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction score 2b-3). RESULTS: Of 473 included patients, 102 (21.6%) were treated with aspiration alone as first-line technique. In the full population, functional outcome was similar for patients treated with stent retriever versus aspiration only (adjusted common odds ratio [acOR]' 1.07 [95% CI, 0.69-1.66]). We observed a significant interaction between IVT and first-line EVT technique (P=0.03). In the aspiration-only group, patients treated with EVT alone had worse functional outcome compared to those treated with IVT and EVT (acOR, 0.44 [95% CI, 0.21-0.90]). In the stent retriever group, functional outcome did not differ between patients treated with or without IVT (acOR, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.74-1.57]). There was no statistically significant interaction for successful reperfusion. CONCLUSIONS: In MR CLEAN-NO IV, the treatment effect of IVT was modified by first-line EVT technique. Patients treated with aspiration only as first-line technique had worse clinical outcomes if they did not receive IVT. No such difference was observed in patients treated with stent retrievers. Confirmation by pooling with results from other trials is needed to confirm these findings.

Comparison of outcomes of different biopsy schedules among men on active surveillance for prostate cancer: An analysis of the G.A.P.3 global consortium database.

BACKGROUND: The optimal interval for repeat biopsy during active surveillance (AS) for prostate cancer is yet to be defined. This study examined whether risk of upgrading (to grade group ≥ 2) or risk of converting to treatment varied according to intensity of repeat biopsy using data from the GAP3 consortium's global AS database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Intensity of surveillance biopsy schedules was categorized according to centers' protocols: (a) Prostate Cancer Research International Active Surveillance project (PRIAS) protocols with biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7 (10 centers; 7532 men); (b) biennial biopsies, that is, every other year (8 centers; 4365 men); and (c) annual biopsy schedules (4 centers; 1602 men). Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare outcomes according to biopsy intensity. RESULTS: Out of the 13,508 eligible participants, 56% were managed according to PRIAS protocols (biopsies at years 1, 4, and 7), 32% via biennial biopsy, and 12% via annual biopsy. After adjusting for baseline characteristics, risk of converting to treatment was greater for those on annual compared with PRIAS biopsy schedules (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.51-1.83; p < 0.001), while risk of upgrading did not differ (HR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.84-1.10). CONCLUSION: Results suggest more frequent biopsy schedules may deter some men from continuing AS despite no evidence of grade progression.

Chemoradiotherapy Followed by Active Surveillance Versus Standard Esophagectomy for Esophageal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To compare overall survival of patients with a cCR undergoing active surveillance versus standard esophagectomy. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: One-third of patients with esophageal cancer have a pathologically complete response in the resection specimen after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Active surveillance may be of benefit in patients with cCR, determined with diagnostics during response evaluations after chemoradiotherapy. METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed comparing overall survival between patients with cCR after chemoradiotherapy undergoing active surveillance versus standard esophagectomy. Authors were contacted to supply individual patient data. Overall and progression-free survival were compared using random effects meta-analysis of randomized or propensity score matched data. Locoregional recurrence rate was assessed. The study-protocol was registered (PROSPERO: CRD42020167070). RESULTS: Seven studies were identified comprising 788 patients, of which after randomization or propensity score matching yielded 196 active surveillance and 257 standard esophagectomy patients. All authors provided individual patient data. The risk of all-cause mortality for active surveillance was 1.08 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62-1.87, P = 0.75] after intention-to-treat analysis and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.56-1.54, P = 0.75) after per-protocol analysis. The risk of progression or all-cause mortality for active surveillance was 1.14 (95% CI: 0.83-1.58, P = 0.36). Five-year locoregional recurrence rate during active surveillance was 40% (95% CI: 26%-59%). 95% of active surveillance patients undergoing postponed esophagectomy for locoregional recurrence had radical resection. CONCLUSIONS: Overall survival was comparable in patients with cCR after chemoradiotherapy undergoing active surveillance or standard esophagectomy. Diagnostic follow-up is mandatory in active surveillance and postponed esophagectomy should be offered to operable patients in case of locoregional recurrence.

Risk Prediction and Comparative Efficacy of Anti-TNF vs Thiopurines, for Preventing Postoperative Recurrence in Crohn's Disease: A Pooled Analysis of 6 Trials.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The superiority of anti-TNF-α agents to thiopurines for the prevention of postoperative recurrence of Crohn's disease (CD) after ileocolonic resection remains controversial. In this meta-analysis of individual participant data (IPD), the effect of both strategies was compared and assessed after risk stratification. METHODS: After a systematic literature search, IPD were requested from randomized controlled trials investigating thiopurines and/or anti-TNF-α agents after ileocolonic resection. Primary outcome was endoscopic recurrence (ER) (Rutgeerts score ≥i2) and secondary outcomes were clinical recurrence (Harvey-Bradshaw Index/Crohn's Disease Activity Index score) and severe ER (Rutgeerts score ≥i3). A fixed effect network meta-analysis was performed. Subgroup effects were assessed and a prediction model was established using Poisson regression models, including sex, smoking, Montreal classification, CD duration, history of prior resection and previous exposure to anti-TNF-α or thiopurines. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of IPD, 645 participants from 6 studies were included. In the total population, a superior effect was demonstrated for anti-TNF-α compared with thiopurine prophylaxis for ER (relative risk [RR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.80), clinical recurrence (RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.26-0.96), and severe ER (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.21-0.79). No differential subgroup effects were found for ER. In Poisson regression analysis, previous exposure to anti-TNF-α and penetrating disease behavior were associated with ER risk. The advantage of anti-TNF-α agents as compared with thiopurines was observed in low- and high-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-TNF-α is superior to thiopurine prophylaxis for the prevention of endoscopic and clinical postoperative CD recurrence after ileocolonic resection. The advantage of anti-TNF-α agents was confirmed in subgroup analysis and after risk stratification.

Prediction of Relapse After Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Cessation in Crohn's Disease: Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis of 1317 Patients From 14 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Tools for stratification of relapse risk of Crohn's disease (CD) after anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy cessation are needed. We aimed to validate a previously developed prediction model from the diSconTinuation in CrOhn's disease patients in stable Remission on combined therapy with Immunosuppressants (STORI) trial, and to develop an updated model. METHODS: Cohort studies were selected that reported on anti-TNF cessation in 30 or more CD patients in remission. Individual participant data were requested for luminal CD patients and anti-TNF treatment duration of 6 months or longer. The discriminative ability (concordance-statistic [C-statistic]) and calibration (agreement between observed and predicted risks) were explored for the STORI model. Next, an updated prognostic model was constructed, with performance assessment by cross-validation. RESULTS: This individual participant data meta-analysis included 1317 patients from 14 studies in 11 countries. Relapses after anti-TNF cessation occurred in 632 of 1317 patients after a median of 13 months. The pooled 1-year relapse rate was 38%. The STORI prediction model showed poor discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.51). The updated model reached a moderate discriminative ability (C-statistic, 0.59), and included clinical symptoms at cessation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4), younger age at diagnosis (HR, 1.5 for A1 (age at diagnosis ≤16 years) vs A2 (age at diagnosis 17 - 40 years); 95% CI, 1.11-1.89), no concomitant immunosuppressants (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.18-172), smoking (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.15-1.67), second line anti-TNF (HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69), upper gastrointestinal tract involvement (HR, 1.3 for L4 vs non-L4; 95% CI, 0.96-1.79), adalimumab (HR, 1.22 vs infliximab; 95% CI, 0.99-1.50), age at cessation (HR, 1.2 per 10 years younger; 95% CI, 1-1.33), C-reactive protein (HR, 1.04 per doubling; 95% CI, 1.00-1.08), and longer disease duration (HR, 1.07 per 5 years; 95% CI, 0.98-1.17). In subanalysis, the discriminative ability of the model improved by adding fecal calprotectin (C-statistic, 0.63). CONCLUSIONS: This updated prediction model showed a reasonable discriminative ability, exceeding the performance of a previously published model. It might be useful to guide clinical decisions on anti-TNF therapy cessation in CD patients after further validation.

Prediction Models for Future High-Need High-Cost Healthcare Use: a Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: In an effort to improve both quality of care and cost-effectiveness, various care-management programmes have been developed for high-need high-cost (HNHC) patients. Early identification of patients at risk of becoming HNHC (i.e. case finding) is crucial to a programme's success. We aim to systematically identify prediction models predicting future HNHC healthcare use in adults, to describe their predictive performance and to assess their applicability. METHODS: Ovid MEDLINE® All, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science and Google Scholar were systematically searched from inception through January 31, 2021. Risk of bias and methodological quality assessment was performed through the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). RESULTS: Of 5890 studies, 60 studies met inclusion criteria. Within these studies, 313 unique models were presented using a median development cohort size of 20,248 patients (IQR 5601-174,242). Predictors were derived from a combination of data sources, most often claims data (n = 37; 62%) and patient survey data (n = 29; 48%). Most studies (n = 36; 60%) estimated patients' risk to become part of some top percentage of the cost distribution (top-1-20%) within a mean time horizon of 16 months (range 12-60). Five studies (8%) predicted HNHC persistence over multiple years. Model validation was performed in 45 studies (76%). Model performance in terms of both calibration and discrimination was reported in 14 studies (23%). Overall risk of bias was rated as 'high' in 40 studies (67%), mostly due to a 'high' risk of bias in the subdomain 'Analysis' (n = 37; 62%). DISCUSSION: This is the first systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42020164734) of non-proprietary prognostic models predicting HNHC healthcare use. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity. Most identified models estimated a patient's risk to incur high healthcare expenditure during the subsequent year. However, case-finding strategies for HNHC care-management programmes are best informed by a model predicting HNHC persistence. Therefore, future studies should not only focus on validating and extending existing models, but also concentrate on clinical usefulness.

Individual risk calculator to predict lymph node metastases in patients with submucosal (T1b) esophageal adenocarcinoma: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lymph node metastasis (LNM) is possible after endoscopic resection of early esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). This study aimed to develop and internally validate a prediction model that estimates the individual risk of metastases in patients with pT1b EAC. METHODS: A nationwide, retrospective, multicenter cohort study was conducted in patients with pT1b EAC treated with endoscopic resection and/or surgery between 1989 and 2016. The primary end point was presence of LNM in surgical resection specimens or detection of metastases during follow-up. All resection specimens were histologically reassessed by specialist gastrointestinal pathologists. Subdistribution hazard regression analysis was used to develop the prediction model. The discriminative ability of this model was assessed using the c-statistic. RESULTS: 248 patients with pT1b EAC were included. Metastases were seen in 78 patients, and the 5-year cumulative incidence was 30.9 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 25.1 %-36.8 %). The risk of metastases increased with submucosal invasion depth (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.08, 95 %CI 1.02-1.14, for every increase of 500 µm), lymphovascular invasion (SHR 2.95, 95 %CI 1.95-4.45), and for larger tumors (SHR 1.23, 95 %CI 1.10-1.37, for every increase of 10 mm). The model demonstrated good discriminative ability (c-statistic 0.81, 95 %CI 0.75-0.86). CONCLUSIONS: A third of patients with pT1b EAC experienced metastases within 5 years. The probability of developing post-resection metastases was estimated with a personalized predicted risk score incorporating tumor invasion depth, tumor size, and lymphovascular invasion. This model requires external validation before implementation into clinical practice.

Shared decision making of burdensome surveillance tests using personalized schedules and their burden and benefit.

Benchmark surveillance tests for detecting disease progression (eg, biopsies, endoscopies) in early-stage chronic noncommunicable diseases (eg, cancer, lung diseases) are usually burdensome. For detecting progression timely, patients undergo invasive tests planned in a fixed one-size-fits-all manner (eg, annually). We aim to present personalized test schedules based on the risk of disease progression, that optimize the burden (the number of tests) and the benefit (shorter time delay in detecting progression is better) better than fixed schedules, and enable shared decision making. Our motivation comes from the problem of scheduling biopsies in prostate cancer surveillance. Using joint models for time-to-event and longitudinal data, we consolidate patients' longitudinal data (eg, biomarkers) and results of previous tests, into individualized future cumulative-risk of progression. We then create personalized schedules by planning tests on future visits where the predicted cumulative-risk is above a threshold (eg, 5% risk). We update personalized schedules with data gathered over follow-up. To find the optimal risk threshold, we minimize a utility function of the expected number of tests (burden) and expected time delay in detecting progression (shorter is beneficial) for different thresholds. We estimate these two in a patient-specific manner for following any schedule, by utilizing a patient's predicted risk profile. Patients/doctors can employ these quantities to compare personalized and fixed schedules objectively and make a shared decision of a test schedule.

Diagnostic variation for febrile children in European emergency departments.

The study aimed to explore the use of diagnostics for febrile children presenting to European emergency departments (EDs), the determinants of inter-hospital variation, and the association between test use and hospitalization. We performed a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional observational study involving 28 paediatric EDs from 11 countries. A total of 4560 children < 16 years were included, with fever as reason for consultation. We excluded neonates and children with relevant comorbidities. Our primary outcome was the proportion of children receiving testing after primary evaluation, by country and by focus of infection. Variability between hospitals and effects of blood testing on patient disposition were explored by multilevel regression analyses, adjusting for patient characteristics (age group, triage level, appearance, fever duration, focus of infection) and hospital type (academic, teaching, other). The use of routine diagnostics varied widely, mostly in the use of blood tests, ranging from 3 to 75% overall across hospitals. Age < 3 months, high-acuity triage level, ill appearance, and suspicion of urinary tract infection displayed the strongest association with blood testing (odds ratios (OR) of 8.71 (95% CI 5.23-14.53), 19.46 (3.66-103.60), 3.13 (2.29-4.26), 10.84 (6.35-18.50), respectively). Blood testing remained highly variable across hospitals (median OR of the final model 2.36, 1.98-3.54). A positive association was observed between blood testing and hospitalization (OR 13.62, 9.00-20.61). CONCLUSION: the use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. Focus groups of participating sites should help define reasons for unexpected variation. WHAT IS KNOWN: • Although previous research has shown variation in the emergency department (ED) management of febrile children, there is limited information on the use of diagnostics in European EDs. • A deeper knowledge of variability and its determinants can steer optimization of care. WHAT IS NEW: • The use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. • Data on between-centre comparison offer opportunities to further explore factors influencing unwarranted variation.

Association of monocyte HLA-DR expression over time with secondary infection in critically ill children: a prospective observational study.

An impaired immune response could play a role in the acquisition of secondary infections in critically ill children. Human leukocyte antigen-DR expression on monocytes (mHLA-DR) has been proposed as marker to detect immunosuppression, but its potential to predict secondary infections in critically ill children is unclear. We aimed to assess the association between mHLA-DR expression at several timepoints and the change of mHLA-DR expression over time with the acquisition of secondary infections in critically ill children. In this prospective observational study, children < 18 years with fever and/or suspected infection (community-acquired or hospital-acquired) were included at a paediatric intensive care unit in the Netherlands. mHLA-DR expression was determined by flow cytometry on day 1, day 2-3 and day 4-7. The association between delta-mHLA-DR expression (difference between last and first measurement) and secondary infection was assessed by multivariable regression analysis, adjusted for age and Paediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction-2 score. We included 104 patients at the PICU (median age 1.2 years [IQR 0.3-4.2]), of whom 28 patients (27%) developed a secondary infection. Compared to 93 healthy controls, mHLA-DR expression of critically ill children was significantly lower at all timepoints. mHLA-DR expression did not differ at any of the time points between patients with and without secondary infection. In addition, delta-mHLA-DR expression was not associated with secondary infection (aOR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.04]).Conclusions: Our results confirm that infectious critically ill children have significantly lower mHLA-DR expression than controls. mHLA-DR expression was not associated with the acquisition of secondary infections. What is Known: • An impaired immune response, estimated by mHLA-DR expression, could play an essential role in the acquisition of secondary infections in critically ill children. • In critically ill children, large studies on the association of mHLA-DR expression with secondary infections are scarce. What is New: • Our study confirms that critically ill children have lower mHLA-DR expression than healthy controls. • mHLA-DR expression and change in mHLA-DR was not associated with the acquisition of secondary infection.

The development of the ADO-SQ model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD.

BACKGROUND: Goals of end-of-life care must be adapted to the needs of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are in the last phase of life. However, identification of those patients is limited by moderate performances of existing prognostic models and by limited validation of the often-recommended surprise question. AIM: To develop a clinical prediction model to predict 1-year mortality in patients with COPD. DESIGN: Prospective study using logistic regression to develop a model in two steps: (1) external validation of the ADO, BODEX, or CODEX models (A = age; B = body mass index; C = comorbidity; D = dyspnea; EX = exacerbations; O = airflow obstruction); (2) updating of best performing model and extending it with the surprise question. Discriminative performance of the new model was assessed using internal-external validation and measured with area under the curve (AUC). A nomogram and web application were developed. SETTINGS/PARTICIPANTS: Patients with COPD from five hospitals (September-November 2017). RESULTS: Of the 358 included patients (median age 69.5 years, 50% male), 63 (17%) died within a year. The ADO index (AUC 0.73) had the best discriminative ability compared to the BODEX (AUC 0.71) or CODEX (AUC 0.68), and was extended with the surprise question. The resulting ADO-surprise question (SQ) model had an AUC of 0.79. CONCLUSION: The ADO-SQ model offers improved discriminative performance for predicting 1-year mortality compared to the surprise question, ADO, BODEX, or CODEX. A user-friendly nomogram and web application (https://dnieboer.shinyapps.io/copd) were developed. Further external validation of the ADO-SQ in patient groups is needed.