Global prediction model for COVID-19 pandemic with the characteristics of the multiple peaks and local fluctuations.

BACKGROUND: With the spread of COVID-19, the time-series prediction of COVID-19 has become a research hotspot. Unlike previous epidemics, COVID-19 has a new pattern of long-time series, large fluctuations, and multiple peaks. Traditional dynamical models are limited to curves with short-time series, single peak, smoothness, and symmetry. Secondly, most of these models have unknown parameters, which bring greater ambiguity and uncertainty. There are still major shortcomings in the integration of multiple factors, such as human interventions, environmental factors, and transmission mechanisms. METHODS: A dynamical model with only infected humans and removed humans was established. Then the process of COVID-19 spread was segmented using a local smoother. The change of infection rate at different stages was quantified using the continuous and periodic Logistic growth function to quantitatively describe the comprehensive effects of natural and human factors. Then, a non-linear variable and NO2 concentrations were introduced to qualify the number of people who have been prevented from infection through human interventions. RESULTS: The experiments and analysis showed the R2 of fitting for the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany was 0.841, 0.977, 0.974, 0.659, 0.992, and 0.753, respectively. The prediction accuracy of the US, UK, India, Brazil, Russia, and Germany in October was 0.331, 0.127, 0.112, 0.376, 0.043, and 0.445, respectively. CONCLUSION: The model can not only better describe the effects of human interventions but also better simulate the temporal evolution of COVID-19 with local fluctuations and multiple peaks, which can provide valuable assistant decision-making information.

A point-feature label placement algorithm based on spatial data mining.

The point-feature label placement (PFLP) refers to the process of positioning labels near point features on a map while adhering to specific rules and guidelines, finally obtaining clear, aesthetically pleasing, and conflict-free maps. While various approaches have been suggested for automated point feature placement on maps, few studies have fully considered the spatial distribution characteristics and label correlations of point datasets, resulting in poor label quality in the process of solving the label placement of dense and complex point datasets. In this paper, we propose a point-feature label placement algorithm based on spatial data mining that analyzes the local spatial distribution characteristics and label correlations of point features. The algorithm quantifies the interference among point features by designing a label frequent pattern framework (LFPF) and constructs an ascending label ordering method based on the pattern to reduce interference. Besides, three classical metaheuristic algorithms (simulated annealing algorithm, genetic algorithm, and ant colony algorithm) are applied to the PFLP in combination with the framework to verify the validity of this framework. Additionally, a bit-based grid spatial index is proposed to reduce cache memory and consumption time in conflict detection. The performance of the experiments is tested with 4000, 10000, and 20000 points of POI data obtained randomly under various label densities. The results of these experiments showed that: (1) the proposed method outperformed both the original algorithm and recent literature, with label quality improvements ranging from 3 to 6.7 and from 0.1 to 2.6, respectively. (2) The label efficiency was improved by 58.2% compared with the traditional grid index.