Cardiovascular events and venous thromboembolism after primary malignant or non-malignant brain tumour diagnosis: a population matched cohort study in Wales (United Kingdom).

BACKGROUND: Elevated standardised mortality ratio of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in patients with brain tumours may result from differences in the CVD incidences and cardiovascular risk factors. We compared the risk of CVD among patients with a primary malignant or non-malignant brain tumour to a matched general population cohort, accounting for other co-morbidities. METHODS: Using data from the Secured Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank in Wales (United Kingdom), we identified all adults aged ≥ 18 years in the primary care database with first diagnosis of malignant or non-malignant brain tumour identified in the cancer registry in 2000-2014 and a matched cohort (case-to-control ratio 1:5) by age, sex and primary care provider from the general population without any cancer diagnosis. Outcomes included fatal and non-fatal major vascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease, aortic and peripheral vascular diseases) and venous thromboembolism (VTE). We used multivariable Cox models adjusted for clinical risk factors to compare risks, stratified by tumour behaviour (malignant or non-malignant) and follow-up period. RESULTS: There were 2869 and 3931 people diagnosed with malignant or non-malignant brain tumours, respectively, between 2000 and 2014 in Wales. They were matched to 33,785 controls. Within the first year of tumour diagnosis, malignant tumour was associated with a higher risk of VTE (hazard ratio [HR] 21.58, 95% confidence interval 16.12-28.88) and stroke (HR 3.32, 2.44-4.53). After the first year, the risks of VTE (HR 2.20, 1.52-3.18) and stroke (HR 1.45, 1.00-2.10) remained higher than controls. Patients with non-malignant tumours had higher risks of VTE (HR 3.72, 2.73-5.06), stroke (HR 4.06, 3.35-4.93) and aortic and peripheral arterial disease (HR 2.09, 1.26-3.48) within the first year of diagnosis compared with their controls. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated CVD and VTE risks suggested risk reduction may be a strategy to improve life quality and survival in people with a brain tumour.

Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with reduced efficacy of an insulin adjustment education program for people with type 1 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The Dose Adjustment for Normal Eating (DAFNE) course teaches insulin dose adjustment to match dietary carbohydrates and improve glycaemic control in participants with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). We investigated the association between socioeconomic deprivation and reduction in HbA1c as a marker of sustained glycaemic control, after attending DAFNE education. METHODS: This retrospective observational study identified adults with T1DM who attended DAFNE training in NHS Lothian, South East Scotland. We extracted age, sex, postcode-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles and annual HbA1c measurements available four years before and after course attendance. We calculated mean HbA1c before (baseline) and after attendance at DAFNE, across four annual measurements. Change in mean HbA1c (mmol/mol) was categorised into three groups: decrease (≥ - 2.5), no change (<±2.5), increase (≥ + 2.5). We used multivariable ordinal logistic regression, with baseline mean HbA1c as a covariate, to investigate the association of SIMD quintile with reduction in mean HbA1c. RESULTS: 335 participants were included. Age and sex distribution were similar across SIMD quintiles (Mean age = 45, range 21-91, 59% women). Lower SIMD quintiles (greater deprivation) had higher baseline mean HbA1c (SIMD 1: 76.0, SIMD 5: 69.0). Higher SIMD quintiles (lower deprivation) were associated with lower odds of no change/increase in mean HbA1c (SIMD 5, odds ratio = 0.25, 95% confidence interval 0.10, 0.58, p = 0.001, multivariable analysis). CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic deprivation was associated with higher baseline mean HbA1c and lower reduction in HbA1c following DAFNE education. Future research could explore causes and how best to support participants from deprived areas. PREVIOUS SUBMISSIONS: This work has not been previously submitted to a journal. This work was presented as a poster at The ABCD Conference 2021 and the abstract (of no more than 300 words) from the meeting has been published: Innes CWD, Henshall DE, Wilson B, Poon M, Morley SD, Ritchie SA. Socioeconomic deprivation is associated with reduced efficacy of an insulin adjustment education programme for people with type 1 diabetes. Br J Diabetes. 2021; 21: 293-296.

Demographics of Cauda Equina Syndrome: A Population-Based Incidence Study.

INTRODUCTION: Cauda equina syndrome (CES) has significant medical, social, and legal consequences. Understanding the number of people presenting with CES and their demographic features is essential for planning healthcare services to ensure timely and appropriate management. We aimed to establish the incidence of CES in a single country and stratify incidence by age, gender, and socioeconomic status. As no consensus clinical definition of CES exists, we compared incidence using different diagnostic criteria. METHODS: All patients presenting with radiological compression of the cauda equina due to degenerative disc disease and clinical CES requiring emergency surgical decompression during a 1-year period were identified at all centres performing emergency spinal surgery across Scotland. Initial patient identification occurred during the emergency hospital admission, and case ascertainment was checked using ICD-10 diagnostic coding. Clinical information was reviewed, and incidence rates for all demographic and clinical groups were calculated. RESULTS: We identified 149 patients with CES in 1 year from a total population of 5.4 million, giving a crude incidence of 2.7 (95% CI: 2.3-3.2) per 100,000 per year. CES occurred more commonly in females and in the 30-49 years age range, with an incidence per year of 7.2 (95% CI: 4.7-10.6) per 100,000 females age 30-39. There was no association between CES and socioeconomic status. CES requiring catheterization had an incidence of 1.1 (95% CI: 0.8-1.5) per 100,000 adults per year. The use of ICD-10 codes alone to identify cases gave much higher incidence rates, but was inaccurate, with 55% (117/211) of patients with a new ICD-10 code for CES found not to have CES on clinical notes review. CONCLUSION: CES occurred more commonly in females and in those between 30 and 49 years and had no association with socioeconomic status. The incidence of CES in Scotland is at least four times higher than previous European estimates of 0.3-0.6 per 100,000 population per year. Incidence varies with clinical diagnostic criteria. To enable comparison of rates of CES across populations, we recommend using standardized clinical and radiological criteria and standardization for population structure.

The Neurology and Neurosurgery Interest Group (NANSIG)-ten years of cultivating interest in clinical neurosciences.

Collaboration and successful teamworking are important components of clinical practise, and these skills should be cultivated early in medical school. The breadth of current medical school curricula means that students often have limited exposure to clinical neurosciences. Since its inception in 2009, the Neurology and Neurosurgery Interest Group (NANSIG) has become a national (UK and Republic of Ireland) example of student and junior doctor synergistic collaboration to deliver educational materials, research, conferences, seminars and workshops, as well as advocating for diversity in this field. Recently, it has expanded to incorporate an international audience and cater for a larger group of young medical professionals. The organisation has overcome numerous challenges and is constantly innovating new approaches to harness the necessary knowledge, skills and network to succeed in a career in neurosciences, neurology and neurosurgery. This article summarises the initiatives undertaken by the group over its first 10 years of existence and its organisational structure, as well as its future plans.

Investigation and management of serum sodium after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SaSH): a survey of practice in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Hyponatraemia is a common complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). We aimed to determine current neurosurgical practice for the identification, investigation and management of hyponatraemia after SAH. METHODS: An online questionnaire was completed by UK and Irish neurosurgical trainees and consultant collaborators in the Sodium after Subarachnoid Haemorrhage (SaSH) audit. RESULTS: Between August 2019 and June 2020, 43 responses were received from 31 of 32 UK and Ireland adult neurosurgical units (NSUs). All units reported routine measurement of serum sodium either daily or every other day. Most NSUs reported routine investigation of hyponatraemia after SAH with paired serum and urinary osmolalities (94%), urinary sodium (84%), daily fluid balance (84%), but few measured glucose (19%), morning cortisol (13%), or performed a short Synacthen test (3%). Management of hyponatraemia was variable, with units reporting use of oral sodium supplementation (77%), fluid restriction (58%), hypertonic saline (55%), and fludrocortisone (19%). CONCLUSIONS: Reported assessment of serum sodium after SAH was consistent between units, whereas management of hyponatraemia varied. This may reflect the lack of a specific evidence-base to inform practice.

Temozolomide sensitivity of malignant glioma cell lines - a systematic review assessing consistencies between in vitro studies.

BACKGROUND: Malignant glioma cell line models are integral to pre-clinical testing of novel potential therapies. Accurate prediction of likely efficacy in the clinic requires that these models are reliable and consistent. We assessed this by examining the reporting of experimental conditions and sensitivity to temozolomide in glioma cells lines. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase (Jan 1994-Jan 2021) for studies evaluating the effect of temozolomide monotherapy on cell viability of at least one malignant glioma cell line. Key data items included type of cell lines, temozolomide exposure duration in hours (hr), and cell viability measure (IC50). RESULTS: We included 212 studies from 2789 non-duplicate records that reported 248 distinct cell lines. The commonest cell line was U87 (60.4%). Only 10.4% studies used a patient-derived cell line. The proportion of studies not reporting each experimental condition ranged from 8.0-27.4%, including base medium (8.0%), serum supplementation (9.9%) and number of replicates (27.4%). In studies reporting IC50, the median value for U87 at 24 h, 48 h and 72 h was 123.9 µM (IQR 75.3-277.7 µM), 223.1 µM (IQR 92.0-590.1 µM) and 230.0 µM (IQR 34.1-650.0 µM), respectively. The median IC50 at 72 h for patient-derived cell lines was 220 µM (IQR 81.1-800.0 µM). CONCLUSION: Temozolomide sensitivity reported in comparable studies was not consistent between or within malignant glioma cell lines. Drug discovery science performed on these models cannot reliably inform clinical translation. A consensus model of reporting can maximise reproducibility and consistency among in vitro studies.

The reporting quality of natural language processing studies: systematic review of studies of radiology reports.

BACKGROUND: Automated language analysis of radiology reports using natural language processing (NLP) can provide valuable information on patients' health and disease. With its rapid development, NLP studies should have transparent methodology to allow comparison of approaches and reproducibility. This systematic review aims to summarise the characteristics and reporting quality of studies applying NLP to radiology reports. METHODS: We searched Google Scholar for studies published in English that applied NLP to radiology reports of any imaging modality between January 2015 and October 2019. At least two reviewers independently performed screening and completed data extraction. We specified 15 criteria relating to data source, datasets, ground truth, outcomes, and reproducibility for quality assessment. The primary NLP performance measures were precision, recall and F1 score. RESULTS: Of the 4,836 records retrieved, we included 164 studies that used NLP on radiology reports. The commonest clinical applications of NLP were disease information or classification (28%) and diagnostic surveillance (27.4%). Most studies used English radiology reports (86%). Reports from mixed imaging modalities were used in 28% of the studies. Oncology (24%) was the most frequent disease area. Most studies had dataset size > 200 (85.4%) but the proportion of studies that described their annotated, training, validation, and test set were 67.1%, 63.4%, 45.7%, and 67.7% respectively. About half of the studies reported precision (48.8%) and recall (53.7%). Few studies reported external validation performed (10.8%), data availability (8.5%) and code availability (9.1%). There was no pattern of performance associated with the overall reporting quality. CONCLUSIONS: There is a range of potential clinical applications for NLP of radiology reports in health services and research. However, we found suboptimal reporting quality that precludes comparison, reproducibility, and replication. Our results support the need for development of reporting standards specific to clinical NLP studies.

Ventriculoperitoneal shunt insertion in human immunodeficiency virus infected adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hydrocephalus is a common, life threatening complication of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related central nervous system opportunistic infection which can be treated by insertion of a ventriculoperitoneal shunt (VPS). In HIV-infected patients there is concern that VPS might be associated with unacceptably high mortality. To identify prognostic indicators, we aimed to compare survival and clinical outcome following VPS placement between all studied causes of hydrocephalus in HIV infected patients. METHODS: The following electronic databases were searched: The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, LILACS, Research Registry, the metaRegister of Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, African Journals Online, and the OpenGrey database. We included observational studies of HIV-infected patients treated with VPS which reported of survival or clinical outcome. Data was extracted using standardised proformas. Risk of bias was assessed using validated domain-based tools. RESULTS: Seven Hunderd twenty-three unique study records were screened. Nine observational studies were included. Three included a total of 75 patients with tuberculous meningitis (TBM) and six included a total of 49 patients with cryptococcal meningitis (CM). All of the CM and two of the TBM studies were of weak quality. One of the TBM studies was of moderate quality. One-month mortality ranged from 62.5-100% for CM and 33.3-61.9% for TBM. These pooled data were of low to very-low quality and was inadequate to support meta-analysis between aetiologies. Pooling of results from two studies with a total of 77 participants indicated that HIV-infected patients with TBM had higher risk of one-month mortality compared with HIV non-infected controls (odds ratio 3.03; 95% confidence-interval 1.13-8.12; p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base is currently inadequate to inform prognostication in VPS insertion in HIV-infected patients. A population-based prospective cohort study is required to address this, in the first instance.

Does pre-operative multifidus morphology on MRI predict clinical outcomes in adults following surgical treatment for degenerative lumbar spine disease? A systematic review.

AIM: Low back pain (LBP) resulting from degenerative lumbar spine disease is a leading contributor to global disability. Changes in the morphology of the lumbar multifidus muscle on magnetic-resonance imaging (MRI) are associated with worse LBP and disability, but the association between multifidus morphology and post-operative outcomes is not known. The purpose of this systematic review is to examine the relationship between pre-operative multifidus morphology and post-operative changes in pain and disability. METHODS: We performed a systematic search using the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, CINAHL and Scopus databases covering the period from January 1946 to January 2018. The literature was searched and assessed by independent reviewers according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. All relevant papers were assessed for risk of bias according to the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. RESULTS: The initial search yielded 436 studies, of which 6 studies were included in the analysis. Four studies were at a low risk of bias. These studies included a total of 873 patients undergoing spinal surgery. An association between low fat infiltration and greater improvement in LBP and disability following surgery was identified. There was insufficient evidence to identify a relationship between cross-sectional area (CSA) and LBP or disability. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review found evidence for an association between low multifidus fat infiltration on MRI at baseline and greater reductions in measures of LBP and disability following surgical treatment. There is also limited evidence for an association between larger pre-operative multifidus CSA and improvements in disability, but not pain. The findings of this review should be interpreted with caution due to the small quantity of the available literature.

Outcomes following surgery in subgroups of comatose and very elderly patients with chronic subdural hematoma.

Increasing age and lower pre-operative Glasgow coma score (GCS) are associated with worse outcome after surgery for chronic subdural haematoma (CSDH). Only few studies have quantified outcomes specific to the very elderly or comatose patients. We aim to examine surgical outcomes in these patient groups. We analysed data from a prospective multicentre cohort study, assessing the risk of recurrence, death, and unfavourable functional outcome of very elderly (≥ 90 years) patients and comatose (pre-operative GCS ≤ 8) patients following surgical treatment of CSDH. Seven hundred eighty-five patients were included in the study. Thirty-two (4.1%) patients had pre-operative GCS ≤ 8 and 70 (8.9%) patients were aged ≥ 90 years. A higher proportion of comatose patients had an unfavourable functional outcome (38.7 vs 21.7%; p = 0.03), although similar proportion of comatose (64.5%) and non-comatose patients (61.8%) functionally improved after surgery (p = 0.96). Compared to patients aged < 90 years, a higher proportion of patients aged ≥ 90 years had unfavourable functional outcome (41.2 vs 20.5%; p < 0.01), although approximately half had functional improvement following surgery. Mortality risk was higher in both comatose (6.3 vs 1.9%; p = 0.05) and very elderly (8.8 vs 1.1%; p < 0.01) groups. There was a trend towards a higher recurrence risk in the comatose group (19.4 vs 9.5%; p = 0.07). Surgery can still provide considerable benefit to very elderly and comatose patients despite their higher risk of morbidity and mortality. Further research would be needed to better identify those most likely to benefit from surgery in these groups.

Subarachnoid haemorrhage with negative initial neurovascular imaging: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: In patients with spontaneous subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), a vascular cause for the bleed is not always found on initial investigations. This study aimed to systematically evaluate the delayed investigation strategies and clinical outcomes in these cases, often described as "non-aneurysmal" SAH (naSAH). METHODS: A systematic review was performed in concordance with the PRISMA checklist. Pooled proportions of primary outcome measures were estimated using a random-effects model. RESULTS: Fifty-eight studies were included (4473 patients). The cohort was split into perimesencephalic naSAH (PnaSAH) (49.9%), non-PnaSAH (44.7%) and radiologically negative SAH identified on lumbar puncture (5.4%). The commonest initial vascular imaging modality was digital subtraction angiography. A vascular abnormality was identified during delayed investigation in 3.9% [95% CI 1.9-6.6]. There was no uniform strategy for the timing or modality of delayed investigations. The pooled proportion of a favourable modified Rankin scale outcome (0-2) at 3-6 months following diagnosis was 92.0% [95% CI 86.0-96.5]. Complications included re-bleeding (3.1% [95% CI 1.5-5.2]), hydrocephalus (16.0% [95% CI 11.2-21.4]), vasospasm (9.6% [95% CI 6.5-13.3]) and seizure (3.5% [95% CI 1.7-5.8]). Stratified by bleeding pattern, we demonstrate a higher rate of delayed diagnoses (13.6% [95% CI 7.4-21.3]), lower proportion of favourable functional outcome (87.2% [95% CI 80.1-92.9]) and higher risk of complications for non-PnaSAH patients. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the heterogeneity in delayed investigations and outcomes for patients with naSAH, which may be influenced by the initial pattern of bleeding. Further multi-centre prospective studies are required to clarify optimal tailored management strategies for this heterogeneous group of patients.

Characteristics of Randomized Trials Focusing on Stroke due to Intracerebral Hemorrhage: Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The absence of treatments for intracerebral hemorrhage with significant consistent benefit in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) could be because of lack of treatment efficacy or the design of RCTs. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register in December 2015 for completed and published RCTs reporting clinical outcome in adults with intracerebral hemorrhage. We collected data on publication year and language, study characteristics, and effect size. We regarded RCTs to be at lower risk of bias if they performed ≥2 of describing randomization, using blinding, or specifying the primary outcome. We registered this systematic review (PROSPERO, international prospective register of systematic reviews CRD42016051103). RESULTS: We found 136 eligible RCTs: 57% were phase II, 76% were single center, 98% studied acute treatments, 49% involved drug interventions, 24% were placebo-controlled, the primary outcome was death or disability in 30%, and median sample size was 77 (interquartile range, 47-160). Forty-six percent explained randomization, 24% blinded treatment allocation, and 24% specified the primary outcome such that 38 (28%) were at lower risk of bias. RCTs at lower risk of bias were more likely to use multicenter recruitment (adjusted odds ratio, 6.95; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-21.5) and be published in English (adjusted odds ratio, 12.9, 95% confidence interval, 2.7-62.5). RCTs with larger sample sizes were independently more likely to be phase III/IV (P<0.01) and use multicenter recruitment (P<0.01). RCTs at lower risk of bias had smaller pooled treatment effects on death/disability (P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage RCTs have often been at high risk of bias, and these RCTs have been characterized by small sample sizes and larger effect sizes.

Aspirin therapy discontinuation and intraoperative blood loss in spinal surgery: a systematic review.

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of aspirin therapy discontinuation on intraoperative blood loss in spinal surgery. We searched Medline and Google Scholar 1946 to January 2017 inclusive for case-control studies, cohort studies, and controlled trials reporting intraoperative blood loss during spinal surgery in patients on pre-operative aspirin. Other outcome measures reported in the eligible studies were collected as secondary outcomes. Two reviewers independently screened and extracted data from each study. Five retrospective cohort and two case-control studies were eligible for inclusion. Of the 1173 patients identified, 587 patients were never on aspirin (Ax), 416 patients had aspirin discontinued before surgery (Ad), ranging from 3 to 10 days, and 170 patients had aspirin continued until surgery (Ac). Six out of seven studies reported no statistically significant difference in intraoperative blood loss irrespective of aspirin discontinuation. Meta-analysis was not possible due to high risk of bias. Of the secondary outcome measures, operative time and postoperative complications were most commonly reported. One of six studies evaluating operative time reported a significantly longer operative time in the Ad group compared with the Ac group. The overall risk of postoperative haematoma in Ax, Ad, and Ac groups is 0.2% (n/N = 1/587), 0.2% (n/N = 1/416), and 1.2% (n/N = 2/170), respectively. No study reported a statistically significant difference in postoperative complications. There is no strong evidence demonstrating a difference in intraoperative blood loss, operation time, and postoperative complications, irrespective of aspirin discontinuation. This is, however, based on a limited number of studies and higher-quality research is required to answer this question with a higher degree of confidence.

Association between antithrombotic drug use before chronic subdural haematoma and outcome after drainage: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

In view of their age and vascular co-morbidities, people are often taking an antithrombotic drug when diagnosed with chronic subdural haematoma (CSDH). It is unclear whether antithrombotic use at CSDH diagnosis, or resumption afterwards, is associated with recurrent CSDH or vaso-occlusive events. We systematically reviewed the literature for studies reporting CSDH recurrence or vaso-occlusive events after drainage of CSDH associated with antithrombotic drug use. We searched Medline 1946-2016 and Embase 1974-2016 inclusive for cohort studies reporting the risk of CSDH recurrence or vaso-occlusive events after CSDH associated with antithrombotic (anticoagulant or antiplatelet) drug use. We meta-analysed outcome data using a random effect model and assessed inconsistency between studies using the I-squared (I 2) statistic. We found 20 studies reporting outcome after drainage of CSDH associated with antithrombotic drug use. Before CSDH drainage, 337 (11.5%) of 2941 patients in 12 studies used an anticoagulant drug and 600 (19%) of 3150 patients in 11 studies used an antiplatelet drug. The association between antithrombotic drug use and CSDH recurrence was significant for antiplatelet drug use (relative risk [RR] 1.36, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.75; I 2 = 36.3%), but marginally significant for anticoagulant drug use (RR 1.38 95% CI 1.00-1.91; I 2 = 37.5%). Two studies including 30 patients reported one vaso-occlusive outcome event after CSDH. Antithrombotic drug use at CSDH diagnosis may be associated with post-operative CSDH recurrence. It is unclear whether this is attributable to confounding factors, antithrombotic reversal strategies or antithrombotic drug resumption. Further observational studies and randomised controlled trials of antithrombotic drug resumption are needed.

Development of prediction models for one-year brain tumour survival using machine learning: a comparison of accuracy and interpretability.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Prediction of survival in patients diagnosed with a brain tumour is challenging because of heterogeneous tumour behaviours and treatment response. Advances in machine learning have led to the development of clinical prognostic models, but due to the lack of model interpretability, integration into clinical practice is almost non-existent. In this retrospective study, we compare five classification models with varying degrees of interpretability for the prediction of brain tumour survival greater than one year following diagnosis. METHODS: 1028 patients aged ≥16 years with a brain tumour diagnosis between April 2012 and April 2020 were included in our study. Three intrinsically interpretable 'glass box' classifiers (Bayesian Rule Lists [BRL], Explainable Boosting Machine [EBM], and Logistic Regression [LR]), and two 'black box' classifiers (Random Forest [RF] and Support Vector Machine [SVM]) were trained on electronic patients records for the prediction of one-year survival. All models were evaluated using balanced accuracy (BAC), F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristics. Black box model interpretability and misclassified predictions were quantified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values and model feature importance was evaluated by clinical experts. RESULTS: The RF model achieved the highest BAC of 78.9%, closely followed by SVM (77.7%), LR (77.5%) and EBM (77.1%). Across all models, age, diagnosis (tumour type), functional features, and first treatment were top contributors to the prediction of one year survival. We used EBM and SHAP to explain model misclassifications and investigated the role of feature interactions in prognosis. CONCLUSION: Interpretable models are a natural choice for the domain of predictive medicine. Intrinsically interpretable models, such as EBMs, may provide an advantage over traditional clinical assessment of brain tumour prognosis by weighting potential risk factors and their interactions that may be unknown to clinicians. An agreement between model predictions and clinical knowledge is essential for establishing trust in the models decision making process, as well as trust that the model will make accurate predictions when applied to new data.

Reporting of PPI and the MCID in phase III/IV randomised controlled trials-a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Patient and public involvement (PPI) in clinical trial design contributes to ensuring the research objectives and outcome measures are relevant to patients. The minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in the primary outcome influences trial design and feasibility and should be predicated on PPI. We aimed to determine current practice of reporting PPI and the MCID in phase III/IV randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: Following a search of Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, we included primary publications of phase III/IV RCTs, in English, inclusive of any medical specialty or type of intervention, that reported a health-related outcome. We excluded protocols and secondary publications of RCTs. We extracted RCT characteristics, the use of PPI, and use of the MCID. RESULTS: Between 1 July 2019 and 13 January 2020, 123 phase III/IV RCTs matched our eligibility criteria. Ninety percent evaluated a medical rather than surgical intervention. Oncology accounted for 21% of all included RCTs. Only 2.4% (n = 3) and 1.6% (n = 2) RCTs described PPI and the MCID respectively. CONCLUSIONS: PPI and the MCID are poorly reported, so it is uncertain how these contributed to trial design. Improvement in the reporting of these items would increase confidence that results are relevant and clinically significant to patients, contributing to improving the overall trial design. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not registered.

Prospective, multicentre study of screening, investigation and management of hyponatraemia after subarachnoid haemorrhage in the UK and Ireland.

BACKGROUND: Hyponatraemia often occurs after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). However, its clinical significance and optimal management are uncertain. We audited the screening, investigation and management of hyponatraemia after SAH. METHODS: We prospectively identified consecutive patients with spontaneous SAH admitted to neurosurgical units in the United Kingdom or Ireland. We reviewed medical records daily from admission to discharge, 21 days or death and extracted all measurements of serum sodium to identify hyponatraemia (<135 mmol/L). Main outcomes were death/dependency at discharge or 21 days and admission duration >10 days. Associations of hyponatraemia with outcome were assessed using logistic regression with adjustment for predictors of outcome after SAH and admission duration. We assessed hyponatraemia-free survival using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: 175/407 (43%) patients admitted to 24 neurosurgical units developed hyponatraemia. 5976 serum sodium measurements were made. Serum osmolality, urine osmolality and urine sodium were measured in 30/166 (18%) hyponatraemic patients with complete data. The most frequently target daily fluid intake was >3 L and this did not differ during hyponatraemic or non-hyponatraemic episodes. 26% (n/N=42/164) patients with hyponatraemia received sodium supplementation. 133 (35%) patients were dead or dependent within the study period and 240 (68%) patients had hospital admission for over 10 days. In the multivariable analyses, hyponatraemia was associated with less dependency (adjusted OR (aOR)=0.35 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.69)) but longer admissions (aOR=3.2 (1.8 to 5.7)). World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grade I-III, modified Fisher 2-4 and posterior circulation aneurysms were associated with greater hazards of hyponatraemia. CONCLUSIONS: In this comprehensive multicentre prospective-adjusted analysis of patients with SAH, hyponatraemia was investigated inconsistently and, for most patients, was not associated with changes in management or clinical outcome. This work establishes a basis for the development of evidence-based SAH-specific guidance for targeted screening, investigation and management of high-risk patients to minimise the impact of hyponatraemia on admission duration and to improve consistency of patient care.

Cauda equina syndrome.

Aims: Patients with cauda equina syndrome (CES) require emergency imaging and surgical decompression. The severity and type of symptoms may influence the timing of imaging and surgery, and help predict the patient's prognosis. Categories of CES attempt to group patients for management and prognostication purposes. We aimed in this study to assess the inter-rater reliability of dividing patients with CES into categories to assess whether they can be reliably applied in clinical practice and in research. Methods: A literature review was undertaken to identify published descriptions of categories of CES. A total of 100 real anonymized clinical vignettes of patients diagnosed with CES from the Understanding Cauda Equina Syndrome (UCES) study were reviewed by consultant spinal surgeons, neurosurgical registrars, and medical students. All were provided with published category definitions and asked to decide whether each patient had 'suspected CES'; 'early CES'; 'incomplete CES'; or 'CES with urinary retention'. Inter-rater agreement was assessed for all categories, for all raters, and for each group of raters using Fleiss's kappa. Results: Each of the 100 participants were rated by four medical students, five neurosurgical registrars, and four consultant spinal surgeons. No groups achieved reasonable inter-rater agreement for any of the categories. CES with retention versus all other categories had the highest inter-rater agreement (kappa 0.34 (95% confidence interval 0.27 to 0.31); minimal agreement). There was no improvement in inter-rater agreement with clinical experience. Across all categories, registrars agreed with each other most often (kappa 0.41), followed by medical students (kappa 0.39). Consultant spinal surgeons had the lowest inter-rater agreement (kappa 0.17). Conclusion: Inter-rater agreement for categorizing CES is low among clinicians who regularly manage these patients. CES categories should be used with caution in clinical practice and research studies, as groups may be heterogenous and not comparable.