Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar.

During outbreaks, the lack of diagnostic "gold standard" can mask the true burden of infection in the population and hamper the allocation of resources required for control. Here, we present an analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of diagnostics when multiple yet imperfect diagnostic tests are available. We apply it to laboratory results of 2,136 samples, analyzed with 3 diagnostic tests (based on up to 7 diagnostic outcomes), collected during the 2017 pneumonic (PP) and bubonic plague (BP) outbreak in Madagascar, which was unprecedented both in the number of notified cases, clinical presentation, and spatial distribution. The extent of these outbreaks has however remained unclear due to nonoptimal assays. Using latent class methods, we estimate that 7% to 15% of notified cases were Yersinia pestis-infected. Overreporting was highest during the peak of the outbreak and lowest in the rural settings endemic to Y. pestis. Molecular biology methods offered the best compromise between sensitivity and specificity. The specificity of the rapid diagnostic test was relatively low (PP: 82%, BP: 85%), particularly for use in contexts with large quantities of misclassified cases. Comparison with data from a subsequent seasonal Y. pestis outbreak in 2018 reveal better test performance (BP: specificity 99%, sensitivity: 91%), indicating that factors related to the response to a large, explosive outbreak may well have affected test performance. We used our framework to optimize the case classification and derive consolidated epidemic trends. Our approach may help reduce uncertainties in other outbreaks where diagnostics are imperfect.

Multiple Introductions of Yersinia pestis during Urban Pneumonic Plague Epidemic, Madagascar, 2017.

Pneumonic plague (PP) is characterized by high infection rate, person-to-person transmission, and rapid progression to severe disease. In 2017, a PP epidemic occurred in 2 Madagascar urban areas, Antananarivo and Toamasina. We used epidemiologic data and Yersinia pestis genomic characterization to determine the sources of this epidemic. Human plague emerged independently from environmental reservoirs in rural endemic foci >20 times during August-November 2017. Confirmed cases from 5 emergences, including 4 PP cases, were documented in urban areas. Epidemiologic and genetic analyses of cases associated with the first emergence event to reach urban areas confirmed that transmission started in August; spread to Antananarivo, Toamasina, and other locations; and persisted in Antananarivo until at least mid-November. Two other Y. pestis lineages may have caused persistent PP transmission chains in Antananarivo. Multiple Y. pestis lineages were independently introduced to urban areas from several rural foci via travel of infected persons during the epidemic.

Performance of plague rapid diagnostic test compared to bacteriology: a retrospective analysis of the data collected in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a highly fatal disease caused by Yersinia pestis. Late diagnosis hampers disease outcome and effectiveness of control measures, induces death and disease spread. Advance on its diagnosis was the use of lateral flow rapid diagnostic test (RDT). METHODS: We assessed the performance of the plague RDT based on Y. pestis F1 antigen detection more than 15 years after its deployment in Madagascar. We compared the RDT with bacteriological culture results, using data from plague notified cases collected during the periods for which both tests were performed independently and systematically. RESULTS: Used with bubonic plague (BP) patient samples, RDTs had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 99.7-100%), a specificity of 67% (95% CI: 64-70%) with a good agreement between bacteriology and RDT results (86%; κ = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.73). For pneumonic plague (PP), RDT had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 91-100%) and a specificity of 59% (95% CI: 49-68%) and concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was moderate (70%; κ = 0.43, 95% CI 0.32-0.55). Analysis focusing on the 2017-2018 plague season including the unprecedented epidemic of PP showed that RDT used on BP samples still had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 85-100%) and a specificity of 82% (95% CI: 48-98%) with a very good agreement with bacteriology 94% (κ = 0.86, 95% CI 0.67-1); for PP samples, concordance between the bacteriological and plague RDT results was poor (61%; κ = - 0.03, 95% CI -0.17 - 0.10). CONCLUSIONS: RDT performance appeared to be similar for the diagnosis of BP and PP except during the 2017 PP epidemic where RDT performance was low. This RDT, with its good sensitivity on both plague clinical forms during a normal plague season, remained a potential test for alert. Particularly for BP, it may be of great value in the decision process for the initiation of therapy. However, for PP, RDT may deliver false negative results due to inconsistent sample quality. Plague diagnosis could be improved through the development of next generation of RDTs.

Reproductive ecology of the black rat (Rattus rattus) in Madagascar: the influence of density-dependent and -independent effects.

The black rat (Rattus rattus) poses a severe threat to food security and public health in Madagascar, where it is a major cause of pre- and post-harvest crop losses and an important reservoir for many zoonotic diseases, including plague. Elsewhere, ecologically based rodent management (EBRM) strategies have been developed using ecological information to inform decisions on where and when to target control. EBRM could deliver improved health and well-being outcomes in Madagascar if adapted to the local ecological context. Using data collected from removal studies, we explored spatio-temporal patterns in the breeding activity of the black rat (R. rattus) in domestic and agricultural habitats across Madagascar and investigated to what extent these trends are influenced by rainfall and rat density. We identified clear spatio-temporal variation in the seasonality of R. rattus reproduction. Reproduction was highly seasonal both inside and outside of houses, but seasonal trends varied between these two habitats. Seasonal trends were explained, in part, by variation in rainfall; however, the effect of rainfall on reproductive rates did itself vary by season and habitat type. A decline in breeding intensity with increasing rat density was recorded outside of houses. This has important implications for control, as populations may compensate for removal through increased reproduction. We recommend that sustained control initiated before the main breeding season, combined with improved hygiene and adequate rodent-proofing in homes and grain stores, could curtail population growth and reduce pre- and post-harvest losses provided that these measures overcome the compensatory response of rodent populations.

Population dynamics of plague vector fleas in an endemic focus: implications for plague surveillance.

Plague is a zoonotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. In Madagascar, it persists in identified foci, where it is a threat to public health generally from September to April. A more complete understanding of how the disease persists could guide control strategies. Fleas are the main vector for transmission between small mammal hosts and humans, and fleas likely play a role in the maintenance of plague. This study characterized the dynamics of flea populations in plague foci alongside the occurrence of human cases. From 2018 to 2020, small mammals were trapped at sites in the central Highlands of Madagascar. A total of 2,762 small mammals were captured and 5,295 fleas were collected. The analysis examines 2 plague vector species in Madagascar (Synopsyllus fonquerniei and Xenopsylla cheopis). Generalized linear models were used to relate flea abundance to abiotic factors, with adjustments for trap location and flea species. We observed significant effects of abiotic factors on the abundance, intensity, and infestation rate by the outdoor-associated flea species, S. fonquerniei, but weak seasonality for the indoor-associated flea species, X. cheopis. A difference in the timing of peak abundance was observed between the 2 flea species during and outside the plague season. While the present study did not identify a clear link between flea population dynamics and plague maintenance, as only one collected X. cheopis was infected, the results presented herein can be used by local health authorities to improve monitoring and control strategies of plague vector fleas in Madagascar.

Assessing the effectiveness of intervention to prevent plague through community and animal-based survey.

Bubonic plague, transmitted by infected flea bites, is the most common form of plague and, left untreated, can progress to the pneumonic form, which is highly contagious. Surveillance focusing on reservoir and vector is considered to be the main approach to prevent plague. Common rodent control methods include the use of rodenticide and snap traps but, in a plague context, the dispersal of fleas from killed animals may pose a serious health threat. Therefore, there is a need for strategies which address reservoir and vector control. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of combination of reservoir and vector control through community-based surveillance. Activities were implemented by local previously trained community agents in two active plague foci in Madagascar. Kartman bait stations containing rodenticide and insecticide were placed indoors while live traps were set outdoors. Small mammals were identified and killed with their fleas. Effectiveness of control measures was evaluated by comparison of plague incidence two years before and after intervention using data on reported human cases of plague from the Central Laboratory of Plague. A total of 4,302 small mammals were captured, with the predominance of the black rat Rattus rattus. Our results found a reduction in plague incidence in the treated site for at least two years after treatment. Community-based interventions played an important role in reducing contact between humans-rodents-fleas. Our study confirms the importance of animal surveillance during the low plague transmission season. The combination of reservoir and vector control with community involvement may be effective at reducing the risks of plague spillover to humans. The strategy of using Kartman bait stations indoors with live traps outdoors can be used to refine proactive plague prevention, however, due to the potential development of resistance to pesticides in flea and rat populations, overuse should be considered.

Phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of plague in Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases.

High Rickettsial Diversity in Rodents and Their Ectoparasites From the Central Highlands of Madagascar.

Rickettsioses are among emerging infectious diseases around the world. In Madagascar, little information is available regarding Rickettsia (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) diversity and their potential impacts on public health. In fact, molecular screening of ectoparasites of mammals reported the presence of three species, Rickettsia africae, Rickettsia typhi, and Rickettsia felis. The present study aims to investigate the diversity of Rickettsia in small mammals and associated ectoparasites (fleas and ticks) using a molecular approach. In September and December 2016, fieldworks were undertaken in two districts of Madagascar to capture small mammals using standard traps (Tomahawk and Sherman traps) and collect associated ectoparasites. In total, 12 taxa of ectoparasites (5 flea and 7 tick species) were collected from 89 individuals of four species of terrestrial small mammals. Rickettsia spp. were molecularly identified in one specimen of Rattus rattus (Rodentia: Muridae), one specimen of Pulex irritans (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae) as well as four specimens of Ixodes cf. colasbelcouri (Ixodida: Ixodidae). This study showed the presence of three phylogenetically distinct taxa of Rickettsia in small mammals and their ectoparasites. The current study broadens our knowledge on the diversity of Rickettsia in the Central Highlands of Madagascar and highlights for the first time the presence of Ri. felis in R. rattus and in tick, I. cf. colasbelcouri in Madagascar. Additional studies are needed to have exhaustive information on Rickettsia in small mammals and their ectoparasites, to determine their pathogenicity as well as their potential effects on public health in order to update the national policy for the control of emerging infectious diseases in Madagascar.

Local-scale diversity of Yersinia pestis: A case study from Ambohitromby, Ankazobe District, Madagascar.

Plague is a re-emerging zoonotic disease and a major public health concern in several portions of the world, especially in Madagascar. We report on the presence of different subtypes of Yersinia pestis co-occurring in the same locality. After confirmation of a human plague case in Ambohitromby Commune (Ankazobe District) via isolation of Y. pestis, we undertook small mammal trapping to identify the circulation of Y. pestis amongst rodents in this locality; blood samples were collected from rodents for seroprevalence analysis. Of the 60 individuals of Rattus rattus captured, one yielded an isolate of Y. pestis, 13 others were positive for F1 antigen of Y. pestis using a rapid diagnostic test, and 4 were PCR positive targeting the caf1 and pla genes; 28/60 (46.7%) of the captured R. rattus were seropositive for Y. pestis. Whole-genome SNP analyses revealed that the two isolates obtained from the human case, and the R. rattus belonged to two different subtypes of Y. pestis (s05 and s13, respectively) that were circulating concurrently in Ambohitromby in 2016. Three Y. pestis subtypes (s03, s05 and s13) have now been isolated from Ambohitromby. Subtype s05 had been persisting there for >10 years but one or both of the other subtypes may have been introduced from the Central Highlands region as they were not observed in previous years (s13) or only observed once previously (s03). High seroprevalence against Y. pestis in R. rattus suggests that a portion of the local murine population may have acquired resistance to Y. pestis. Future research should focus on genomically characterizing Y. pestis strains circulating in Ankazobe District and other plague-endemic regions of Madagascar to better understand the overall phylogeography of Y. pestis.

Characterization of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated from patients suspected of pulmonary or bubonic plague during the Madagascar epidemic in 2017.

Klebsiella pneumoniae can lead to a wide range of diseases including pneumonia, bloodstream and urinary tract infections. During a short period of a pulmonary plague epidemic in October 2017 in Madagascar, 12 K. pneumoniae isolates were identified in ten sputum and two buboes aspirate samples. These isolates were from 12 patients suspected of plague, without epidemiological relationships, but were negative for Yersinia pestis in culture. Data were collected from the plague national surveillance system. The isolates were characterized by antimicrobial susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing. Real-time PCR was performed to confirm the presence of K. pneumoniae DNA in buboes. All isolates were identified as K. pneumoniae sensu stricto. Five isolates were extended-spectrum ß-lactamases producers; eleven different sequence types were identified. Five isolates belonged to known hypervirulent sequence types. Our results demonstrate community-acquired pneumonia caused by K. pneumoniae isolates in patients suspected of plague stressing the importance of bed-side differential diagnosis.

Epidemiological characteristics of an urban plague epidemic in Madagascar, August-November, 2017: an outbreak report.

BACKGROUND: Madagascar accounts for 75% of global plague cases reported to WHO, with an annual incidence of 200-700 suspected cases (mainly bubonic plague). In 2017, a pneumonic plague epidemic of unusual size occurred. The extent of this epidemic provides a unique opportunity to better understand the epidemiology of pneumonic plagues, particularly in urban settings. METHODS: Clinically suspected plague cases were notified to the Central Laboratory for Plague at Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (Antananarivo, Madagascar), where biological samples were tested. Based on cases recorded between Aug 1, and Nov 26, 2017, we assessed the epidemiological characteristics of this epidemic. Cases were classified as suspected, probable, or confirmed based on the results of three types of diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test, molecular methods, and culture) according to 2006 WHO recommendations. FINDINGS: 2414 clinically suspected plague cases were reported, including 1878 (78%) pneumonic plague cases, 395 (16%) bubonic plague cases, one (<1%) septicaemic case, and 140 (6%) cases with unspecified clinical form. 386 (21%) of 1878 notified pneumonic plague cases were probable and 32 (2%) were confirmed. 73 (18%) of 395 notified bubonic plague cases were probable and 66 (17%) were confirmed. The case fatality ratio was higher among confirmed cases (eight [25%] of 32 cases) than probable (27 [8%] of 360 cases) or suspected pneumonic plague cases (74 [5%] of 1358 cases) and a similar trend was seen for bubonic plague cases (16 [24%] of 66 confirmed cases, four [6%] of 68 probable cases, and six [2%] of 243 suspected cases). 351 (84%) of 418 confirmed or probable pneumonic plague cases were concentrated in Antananarivo, the capital city, and Toamasina, the main seaport. All 50 isolated Yersinia pestis strains were susceptible to the tested antibiotics. INTERPRETATION: This predominantly urban plague epidemic was characterised by a large number of notifications in two major urban areas and an unusually high proportion of pneumonic forms, with only 23% having one or more positive laboratory tests. Lessons about clinical and biological diagnosis, case definition, surveillance, and the logistical management of the response identified in this epidemic are crucial to improve the response to future plague outbreaks. FUNDING: US Agency for International Development, WHO, Institut Pasteur, US Department of Health and Human Services, Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, AXA Research Fund, and the INCEPTION programme.