Multi-generation genetic contributions of immigrants reveal cryptic elevated and sex-biased effective gene flow within a natural meta-population.

Impacts of immigration on micro-evolution and population dynamics fundamentally depend on net rates and forms of resulting gene flow into recipient populations. Yet, the degrees to which observed rates and sex ratios of physical immigration translate into multi-generational genetic legacies have not been explicitly quantified in natural meta-populations, precluding inference on how movements translate into effective gene flow and eco-evolutionary outcomes. Our analyses of three decades of complete song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) pedigree data show that multi-generational genetic contributions from regular natural immigrants substantially exceeded those from contemporary natives, consistent with heterosis-enhanced introgression. However, while contributions from female immigrants exceeded those from female natives by up to three-fold, male immigrants' lineages typically went locally extinct soon after arriving. Both the overall magnitude, and the degree of female bias, of effective gene flow therefore greatly exceeded those which would be inferred from observed physical arrivals, altering multiple eco-evolutionary implications of immigration.

Multigenerational Fitness Effects of Natural Immigration Indicate Strong Heterosis and Epistatic Breakdown in a Wild Bird Population.

AbstractThe fitness of immigrants and their descendants produced within recipient populations fundamentally underpins the genetic and population dynamic consequences of immigration. Immigrants can in principle induce contrasting genetic effects on fitness across generations, reflecting multifaceted additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. Yet full multigenerational and sex-specific fitness effects of regular immigration have not been quantified within naturally structured systems, precluding inference on underlying genetic architectures and population outcomes. We used four decades of song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) life history and pedigree data to quantify fitness of natural immigrants, natives, and their F1, F2, and backcross descendants and test for evidence of nonadditive genetic effects. Values of key fitness components (including adult lifetime reproductive success and zygote survival) of F1 offspring of immigrant-native matings substantially exceeded their parent mean, indicating strong heterosis. Meanwhile, F2 offspring of F1-F1 matings had notably low values, indicating surprisingly strong epistatic breakdown. Furthermore, magnitudes of effects varied among fitness components and differed between female and male descendants. These results demonstrate that strong nonadditive genetic effects on fitness can arise within weakly structured and fragmented populations experiencing frequent natural immigration. Such effects will substantially affect the net degree of effective gene flow and resulting local genetic introgression and adaptation.

Carry-over effects of seasonal migration on reproductive success through breeding site retention in a partially migratory bird.

Understanding the maintenance and dynamics of phenotypic polymorphisms requires unpicking key ecological mechanisms shaping the fitness costs and benefits of expressing alternative phenotypes, generating selection. Seasonal migration versus year-round residence expressed in partially migratory populations represents one common polymorphism that can experience strong selection through differential reproductive success. Yet, key hypothesised pathways that could generate such selection remain to be empirically tested. One hypothesis is that migratory tactics affect subsequent reproductive success through carry-over effects on breeding site retention and resulting breeding dispersal. By remaining in breeding areas all year round, residents could retain their preferred breeding site between years, and consequently have higher reproductive success. Conversely, migrants that escape harsh non-breeding season conditions could return in better condition, with high resource holding potential, and outcompete residents to retain their site. Such effects could further depend on migration timing and vary between years. Yet, such pathways have not been quantified, precluding empirical parameterisation of partial migration theory. We used 4 years of breeding and non-breeding season data from partially migratory European shags (Gulosus aristotelis) to test whether the three most frequent migratory tactics in this population (full resident, early migrant departing soon after breeding, and late migrant departing in late autumn) differed in their breeding site retention; whether site retention predicted reproductive success; and hence whether effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were explicable through site retention. Overall, residents were much more likely to retain their breeding site between years than both early and late migrants, and site retention was associated with increased reproductive success. Yet, these effects varied somewhat among years: late migrants were always least likely to retain their site but had variable relative reproductive success. Path analyses revealed that effects of migratory tactic on reproductive success were only partly attributable to breeding site retention. These results indicate that multiple mechanisms underlie reproductive selection on migratory tactics, potentially contributing to maintaining behavioural polymorphisms. Yet, the clear associations between migratory tactics and local breeding dispersal reveal that these movements can be strongly interlinked across seasons, shaping overall spatioseasonal dynamics in partially migratory systems.

Hierarchical Variation in Phenotypic Flexibility across Timescales and Associated Survival Selection Shape the Dynamics of Partial Seasonal Migration.

AbstractPopulation responses to environmental variation ultimately depend on within-individual and among-individual variation in labile phenotypic traits that affect fitness and resulting episodes of selection. Yet complex patterns of individual phenotypic variation arising within and between time periods, as well as associated variation in selection, have not been fully conceptualized or quantified. We highlight how structured patterns of phenotypic variation in dichotomous threshold traits can theoretically arise and experience varying forms of selection, shaping overall phenotypic dynamics. We then fit novel multistate models to 10 years of band-resighting data from European shags to quantify phenotypic variation and selection in a key threshold trait underlying spatioseasonal population dynamics: seasonal migration versus residence. First, we demonstrate substantial among-individual variation alongside substantial between-year individual repeatability in within-year phenotypic variation ("flexibility"), with weak sexual dimorphism. Second, we demonstrate that between-year individual variation in within-year phenotypes ("supraflexibility") is structured and directional, consistent with the threshold trait model. Third, we demonstrate strong survival selection on within-year phenotypes-and hence on flexibility-that varies across years and sexes, including episodes of disruptive selection representing costs of flexibility. By quantitatively combining these results, we show how supraflexibility and survival selection on migratory flexibility jointly shape population-wide phenotypic dynamics of seasonal movement.

Immune genotypes, immune responses, and survival in a wild bird population.

Individuals vary in their immune genotype, inbreeding coefficient f, immune responses, survival to adulthood, and adult longevity. However, whether immune genes predict survival or longevity, whether such relationships are mediated through immune responses, and how f affects immune genotype remain unclear. We use a wild song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in which survival to adulthood, adult longevity, and f were measured precisely, and in which immune responses have previously been assessed. We investigate four toll-like receptor (TLR) and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class IIB exon 2 genes. We test whether immune genes predict fitness (survival to adulthood or adult longevity); whether immune genes predict immune response; whether immune response predicts fitness and whether fitness, immune responses, or immune genotypes are correlated with f. We find that survival to adulthood is not associated with immune gene variation, but adult longevity is decreased by high MHC allele diversity (especially in birds that were relatively outbred), and by the presence of a specific MHC supertype. Immune responses were affected by specific immune genotypes. Survival to adulthood and adult longevity were not predicted by immune response, implying caution in the use of immune response as a predictor for fitness. We also found no relationship between f and immune genotype. This finding indicates that immune gene associations with longevity and immune response are not artefacts of f, and suggests that pathogen-mediated selection at functional loci can slow the loss of genetic variation arising from genetic drift and small population size.

Environmental variance in male mating success modulates the positive versus negative impacts of sexual selection on genetic load.

Sexual selection on males is predicted to increase population fitness, and delay population extinction, when mating success negatively covaries with genetic load across individuals. However, such benefits of sexual selection could be counteracted by simultaneous increases in genome-wide drift resulting from reduced effective population size caused by increased variance in fitness. Resulting fixation of deleterious mutations could be greatest in small populations, and when environmental variation in mating traits partially decouples sexual selection from underlying genetic variation. The net consequences of sexual selection for genetic load and population persistence are therefore likely to be context dependent, but such variation has not been examined. We use a genetically explicit individual-based model to show that weak sexual selection can increase population persistence time compared to random mating. However, for stronger sexual selection such positive effects can be overturned by the detrimental effects of increased genome-wide drift. Furthermore, the relative strengths of mutation-purging and drift critically depend on the environmental variance in the male mating trait. Specifically, increasing environmental variance caused stronger sexual selection to elevate deleterious mutation fixation rate and mean selection coefficient, driving rapid accumulation of drift load and decreasing population persistence times. These results highlight an intricate balance between conflicting positive and negative consequences of sexual selection on genetic load, even in the absence of sexually antagonistic selection. They imply that environmental variances in key mating traits, and intrinsic genetic drift, should be properly factored into future theoretical and empirical studies of the evolution of population fitness under sexual selection.

Older mothers produce more successful daughters.

Annual reproductive success and senescence patterns vary substantially among individuals in the wild. However, it is still seldom considered that senescence may not only affect an individual but also affect age-specific reproductive success in its offspring, generating transgenerational reproductive senescence. We used long-term data from wild yellow-bellied marmots (Marmota flaviventer) living in two different elevational environments to quantify age-specific reproductive success of daughters born to mothers differing in age. Contrary to prediction, daughters born to older mothers had greater annual reproductive success on average than daughters born to younger mothers, and this translated into greater lifetime reproductive success. However, in the favorable lower elevation environment, daughters born to older mothers also had greater age-specific decreases in annual reproductive success. In the harsher higher elevation environment on the other hand, daughters born to older mothers tended to die before reaching ages at which such senescent decreases could be observed. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating environment-specific transgenerational parent age effects on adult offspring age-specific life-history traits to fully understand the substantial variation observed in senescence patterns in wild populations.

Adaptation to climate change through seasonal migration revealed by climatic versus demographic niche models.

Predicting the geographic range of species and their response to climatic variation and change are entwined goals in conservation and evolutionary ecology. Species distribution models (SDMs) are foundational in this effort and used to visualize the geographic range of species as the spatial representation of its realized niche. SDMs are also used to forecast range shifts under climate change, but often in the absence of empirical evidence that climate limits population growth. We explored the influence of climate on demography, seasonal migration, and the extent of the geographic range in song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), a species thought to display marked local adaptation to regional climate. To do so, we developed SDMs to predict the demographic and climate niches of migratory and resident song sparrows across our study area in western North America from California to Alaska, using 48 years of demographic data from a focal population in British Columbia and 1.2 million continental-scale citizen science observations. Spatial agreement of our demographic and climate niche models in the region of our focal population was strong (76%), supporting the hypothesis that demographic performance and the occurrence of seasonal migration varied predictably with climatic conditions. In contrast, agreement at the northern (58%) and southern (40%) extents of our study area was lower, as expected if the factors limiting population growth vary regionally. Our results support the hypothesis that local climate drives spatial variation in the occurrence of seasonal migration in song sparrows by limiting the fitness of year-round residents, and suggest that climate warming has favored range expansions and facilitated an upward shift in elevational range song sparrows that forgo seasonal migration. Our work highlights the potential role of seasonal migration in climate adaptation and limits on the reliability of climate niche models not validated with demographic data.

Integrating advances in population and evolutionary ecology with conservation strategy through long-term studies of red-billed choughs.

Conceptual and methodological advances in population and evolutionary ecology are often pursued with the ambition that they will help identify demographic, ecological and genetic constraints on population growth rate (λ), and ultimately facilitate evidence-based conservation. However, such advances are often decoupled from conservation practice, impeding translation of scientific understanding into effective conservation and of conservation-motivated research into wider conceptual understanding. We summarise key outcomes from long-term studies of a red-billed chough Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax population of conservation concern, where we proactively aimed to achieve the dual and interacting objectives of advancing population and evolutionary ecology and advancing effective conservation. Estimation of means, variances and covariances in key vital rates from individual-based demographic data identified temporal and spatial variation in subadult survival as key constraints on λ, and simultaneously provided new insights into how vital rates can vary as functions of demographic structure, natal conditions and parental life history. Targeted analyses showed that first-year survival increased with prey abundance, implying that food limitation may constrain λ. First-year survival then decreased dramatically, threatening population viability and prompting emergency supplementary feeding interventions. Detailed evaluations suggested that the interventions successfully increased first-year survival in some years and additionally increased adult survival and successful reproduction, thereby feeding back to inform intervention refinements and understanding of complex ecological constraints on λ. Genetic analyses revealed novel evidence of expression of a lethal recessive allele, and demonstrated how critically small effective population size can arise, thereby increasing inbreeding and loss of genetic variation. Population viability analyses parameterised with all available demographic and genetic data showed how ecological and genetic constraints can interact to limit population viability, and identified ecological management as of primacy over genetic management to ensure short-term persistence of the focal population. This case study demonstrates a full iteration through the sequence of primary science, evidence-based intervention, quantitative evaluation and feedback that is advocated in conservation science but still infrequently achieved. It thereby illustrates how pure science advances informed conservation actions to ensure the (short-term) stability of the target population, and how conservation-motivated analyses fed back to advance fundamental understanding of population processes.

Modelling the responses of partially migratory metapopulations to changing seasonal migration rates: From theory to data.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally and spatially structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopulation dynamic models for partially migratory systems. We, therefore, lack general frameworks that can identify how variable seasonal movements, and associated season- and location-specific vital rates, can control system persistence. We constructed a novel conceptual framework that captures full-annual-cycle dynamics and key dimensions of metapopulation structure for partially migratory species inhabiting seasonal environments. We conceptualize among-individual variation in seasonal migration as two variable vital rates: seasonal movement probability and associated movement survival probability. We conceptualize three levels of within-individual variation (i.e. plasticity), representing seasonal or annual variation in seasonal migration or lifelong fixed strategies. We formulate these concepts as a general matrix model, which is customizable for diverse life-histories and seasonal landscapes. To illustrate how variable seasonal migration can affect metapopulation growth rate, demographic structure and vital rate elasticities, we parameterize our general models for hypothetical short- and longer-lived species. Analyses illustrate that elasticities of seasonal movement probability and associated survival probability can sometimes equal or exceed those of vital rates typically understood to substantially influence metapopulation dynamics (i.e. seasonal survival probability or fecundity), that elasticities can vary non-linearly, and that metapopulation outcomes depend on the level of within-individual plasticity. We illustrate how our general framework can be applied to evaluate the consequences of variable and changing seasonal movement probability by parameterizing our models for a real partially migratory metapopulation of European shags Gulosus aristotelis assuming lifelong fixed strategies. Given observed conditions, metapopulation growth rate was most elastic to breeding season adult survival of the resident fraction in the dominant population. However, given doubled seasonal movement probability, variation in survival during movement would become the primary driver of metapopulation dynamics. Our general conceptual and matrix model frameworks, and illustrative analyses, thereby highlight complex ways in which structured variation in seasonal migration can influence dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations, and pave the way for diverse future theoretical and empirical advances.

Episodes of opposing survival and reproductive selection cause strong fluctuating selection on seasonal migration versus residence.

Quantifying temporal variation in sex-specific selection on key ecologically relevant traits, and quantifying how such variation arises through synergistic or opposing components of survival and reproductive selection, is central to understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics, but rarely achieved. Seasonal migration versus residence is one key trait that directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics in spatially and temporally varying environments, but temporal dynamics of sex-specific selection have not been fully quantified. We fitted multi-event capture-recapture models to year-round ring resightings and breeding success data from partially migratory European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to quantify temporal variation in annual sex-specific selection on seasonal migration versus residence arising through adult survival, reproduction and the combination of both (i.e. annual fitness). We demonstrate episodes of strong and strongly fluctuating selection through annual fitness that were broadly synchronized across females and males. These overall fluctuations arose because strong reproductive selection against migration in several years contrasted with strong survival selection against residence in years with extreme climatic events. These results indicate how substantial phenotypic and genetic variation in migration versus residence could be maintained, and highlight that biologically important fluctuations in selection may not be detected unless both survival selection and reproductive selection are appropriately quantified and combined.

Are immigrants outbred and unrelated? Testing standard assumptions in a wild metapopulation.

Immigration into small recipient populations is expected to alleviate inbreeding and increase genetic variation, and hence facilitate population persistence through genetic and/or evolutionary rescue. Such expectations depend on three standard assumptions: that immigrants are outbred, unrelated to existing natives at arrival, and unrelated to each other. These assumptions are rarely explicitly verified, including in key field systems in evolutionary ecology. Yet, they could be violated due to non-random or repeated immigration from adjacent small populations. We combined molecular genetic marker data for 150-160 microsatellite loci with comprehensive pedigree data to test the three assumptions for a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population that is a model system for quantifying effects of inbreeding and immigration in the wild. Immigrants were less homozygous than existing natives on average, with mean homozygosity that closely resembled outbred natives. Immigrants can therefore be considered outbred on the focal population scale. Comparisons of homozygosity of real or hypothetical offspring of immigrant-native, native-native and immigrant-immigrant pairings implied that immigrants were typically unrelated to existing natives and to each other. Indeed, immigrants' offspring would be even less homozygous than outbred individuals on the focal population scale. The three standard assumptions of population genetic and evolutionary theory were consequently largely validated. Yet, our analyses revealed some deviations that should be accounted for in future analyses of heterosis and inbreeding depression, implying that the three assumptions should be verified in other systems to probe patterns of non-random or repeated dispersal and facilitate precise and unbiased estimation of key evolutionary parameters.

Strong survival selection on seasonal migration versus residence induced by extreme climatic events.

Elucidating the full eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change requires quantifying the impact of extreme climatic events (ECEs) on selective landscapes of key phenotypic traits that mediate responses to changing environments. Episodes of strong ECE-induced selection could directly alter population composition, and potentially drive micro-evolution. However, to date, few studies have quantified ECE-induced selection on key traits, meaning that immediate and longer-term eco-evolutionary implications cannot yet be considered. One widely expressed trait that allows individuals to respond to changing seasonal environments, and directly shapes spatio-seasonal population dynamics, is seasonal migration versus residence. Many populations show considerable among-individual phenotypic variation, resulting in 'partial migration'. However, variation in the magnitude of direct survival selection on migration versus residence has not been rigorously quantified, and empirical evidence of whether seasonal ECEs induce, intensify, weaken or reverse such selection is lacking. We designed full annual cycle multi-state capture-recapture models that allow estimation of seasonal survival probabilities of migrants and residents from spatio-temporally heterogeneous individual resightings. We fitted these models to 9 years of geographically extensive year-round resighting data from partially migratory European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis. We thereby quantified seasonal and annual survival selection on migration versus residence across benign and historically extreme non-breeding season (winter) conditions, and tested whether selection differed between females and males. We show that two of four observed ECEs, defined as severe winter storms causing overall low survival, were associated with very strong seasonal survival selection against residence. These episodes dwarfed the weak selection or neutrality evident otherwise, and hence caused selection through overall annual survival. The ECE that caused highest overall mortality and strongest selection also caused sex-biased mortality, but there was little overall evidence of sex-biased selection on migration versus residence. Our results imply that seasonal ECEs and associated mortality can substantially shape the landscape of survival selection on migration versus residence. Such ECE-induced phenotypic selection will directly alter migrant and resident frequencies, and thereby alter immediate spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Given underlying additive genetic variation, such ECEs could potentially cause micro-evolutionary changes in seasonal migration, and thereby cause complex eco-evolutionary population responses to changing seasonal environments.

Among-individual and within-individual variation in seasonal migration covaries with subsequent reproductive success in a partially migratory bird.

Within-individual and among-individual variation in expression of key environmentally sensitive traits, and associated variation in fitness components occurring within and between years, determine the extents of phenotypic plasticity and selection and shape population responses to changing environments. Reversible seasonal migration is one key trait that directly mediates spatial escape from seasonally deteriorating environments, causing spatio-seasonal population dynamics. Yet, within-individual and among-individual variation in seasonal migration versus residence, and dynamic associations with subsequent reproductive success, have not been fully quantified. We used novel capture-mark-recapture mixture models to assign individual European shags (Phalacrocorax aristotelis) to 'resident', 'early migrant', or 'late migrant' strategies in two consecutive years, using year-round local resightings. We demonstrate substantial among-individual variation in strategy within years, and directional within-individual change between years. Furthermore, subsequent reproductive success varied substantially among strategies, and relationships differed between years; residents and late migrants had highest success in the 2 years, respectively, matching the years in which these strategies were most frequently expressed. These results imply that migratory strategies can experience fluctuating reproductive selection, and that flexible expression of migration can be partially aligned with reproductive outcomes. Plastic seasonal migration could then potentially contribute to adaptive population responses to currently changing forms of environmental seasonality.

Testing predictions of inclusive fitness theory in inbreeding relatives with biparental care.

Inclusive fitness theory predicts that parental care will vary with relatedness between potentially caring parents and offspring, potentially shaping mating system evolution. Systems with extra-pair paternity (EPP), and hence variable parent-brood relatedness, provide valuable opportunities to test this prediction. However, existing theoretical and empirical studies assume that a focal male is either an offspring's father with no inbreeding, or is completely unrelated. We highlight that this simple dichotomy does not hold given reproductive interactions among relatives, complicating the effect of EPP on parent-brood relatedness yet providing new opportunities to test inclusive fitness theory. Accordingly, we tested hierarchical hypotheses relating parental feeding rate to parent-brood relatedness, parent kinship and inbreeding, using song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) experiencing natural variation in relatedness. As predicted, male and female feeding rates increased with relatedness to a dependent brood, even controlling for brood size. Male feeding rate tended to decrease as paternity loss increased, and increased with increasing kinship and hence inbreeding between socially paired mates. We thereby demonstrate that variation in a key component of parental care concurs with subtle predictions from inclusive fitness theory. We additionally highlight that such effects can depend on the underlying social mating system, potentially generating status-specific costs of extra-pair reproduction.

Science policies: How should science funding be allocated? An evolutionary biologists' perspective.

In an ideal world, funding agencies could identify the best scientists and projects and provide them with the resources to undertake these projects. Most scientists would agree that in practice, how funding for scientific research is allocated is far from ideal and likely compromises research quality. We, nine evolutionary biologists from different countries and career stages, provide a comparative summary of our impressions on funding strategies for evolutionary biology across eleven different funding agencies. We also assess whether and how funding effectiveness might be improved. We focused this assessment on 14 elements within four broad categories: (a) topical shaping of science, (b) distribution of funds, (c) application and review procedures, and (d) incentives for mobility and diversity. These comparisons revealed striking among-country variation in those elements, including wide variation in funding rates, the effort and burden required for grant applications, and the extent of emphasis on societal relevance and individual mobility. We use these observations to provide constructive suggestions for the future and urge the need to further gather informed considerations from scientists on the effects of funding policies on science across countries and research fields.

The Consequences of Polyandry for Sibship Structures, Distributions of Relationships and Relatedness, and Potential for Inbreeding in a Wild Population.

The evolutionary benefits of simultaneous polyandry (female multiple mating within a single reproductive event) remain elusive. One potential benefit could arise if polyandry alters sibship structures and consequent relationships and relatedness among females' descendants, thereby intrinsically reducing future inbreeding risk (the indirect inbreeding avoidance hypothesis). However such effects have not been quantified in naturally complex mating systems that also encompass iteroparity, overlapping generations, sequential polyandry, and polygyny. We used long-term social and genetic pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to quantify cross-generational consequences of simultaneous polyandry for offspring sibship structures and distributions of relationships and relatedness among possible mates. Simultaneous polyandry decreased full sibships and increased half-sibships, on average, but such effects varied among females and were smaller than would occur in the absence of sequential polyandry or polygyny. Further, while simultaneous polyandry decreased the overall frequencies of possible matings among adult full sibs, it increased the frequencies of possible matings among adult half-sibs and more distant relatives. These results imply that the intrinsic consequences of simultaneous polyandry for inbreeding risk could cause weak indirect selection on polyandry, but the magnitude and direction of such effects will depend on complex interactions with other mating system components and the form of inbreeding depression.

Individual repeatability and heritability of divorce in a wild population.

Understanding micro-evolutionary responses of mating systems to contemporary selection requires estimating sex-specific additive genetic variances and cross-sex genetic covariances in key reproductive strategy traits. One key trait comprises the occurrence of divorce versus mate fidelity across sequential reproductive attempts. If divorce represents an evolving behavioural strategy that responds to selection it must have non-zero individual repeatability and heritability, but quantitative estimates from wild populations are scarce. We used 39 years of individual breeding records and pedigree data from free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to quantify sex-specific permanent individual and additive genetic variances, and hence estimate repeatability and heritability, in liability for divorce. We estimated moderate repeatability among females, but little repeatability among males. Estimates of additive genetic variance were small in both sexes, and the cross-sex genetic covariance was close to zero. Consequently, the total heritability was small but likely non-zero, indicating low potential for micro-evolutionary response to selection. Rapid micro-evolutionary change of divorce rate, therefore, appears unlikely, even if there were substantial fitness benefits of divorce and resulting selection.

Pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient explains more variation in fitness than heterozygosity at 160 microsatellites in a wild bird population.

Although the pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient F predicts the expected proportion of an individual's genome that is identical-by-descent (IBD), heterozygosity at genetic markers captures Mendelian sampling variation and thereby provides an estimate of realized IBD. Realized IBD should hence explain more variation in fitness than their pedigree-based expectations, but how many markers are required to achieve this in practice remains poorly understood. We use extensive pedigree and life-history data from an island population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to show that the number of genetic markers and pedigree depth affected the explanatory power of heterozygosity and F, respectively, but that heterozygosity measured at 160 microsatellites did not explain more variation in fitness than F This is in contrast with other studies that found heterozygosity based on far fewer markers to explain more variation in fitness than F Thus, the relative performance of marker- and pedigree-based estimates of IBD depends on the quality of the pedigree, the number, variability and location of the markers employed, and the species-specific recombination landscape, and expectations based on detailed and deep pedigrees remain valuable until we can routinely afford genotyping hundreds of phenotyped wild individuals of genetic non-model species for thousands of genetic markers.

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds.

Phenological changes in key seasonally expressed life-history traits occurring across periods of climatic and environmental change can cause temporal mismatches between interacting species, and thereby impact population and community dynamics. However, studies quantifying long-term phenological changes have commonly only measured variation occurring in spring, measured as the first or mean dates on which focal traits or events were observed. Few studies have considered seasonally paired events spanning spring and autumn or tested the key assumption that single convenient metrics accurately capture entire event distributions. We used 60 years (1955-2014) of daily bird migration census data from Fair Isle, Scotland, to comprehensively quantify the degree to which the full distributions of spring and autumn migration timing of 13 species of long-distance migratory bird changed across a period of substantial climatic and environmental change. In most species, mean spring and autumn migration dates changed little. However, the early migration phase (≤10th percentile date) commonly got earlier, while the late migration phase (≥90th percentile date) commonly got later. Consequently, species' total migration durations typically lengthened across years. Spring and autumn migration phenologies were not consistently correlated within or between years within species and hence were not tightly coupled. Furthermore, different metrics quantifying different aspects of migration phenology within seasons were not strongly cross-correlated, meaning that no single metric adequately described the full pattern of phenological change. These analyses therefore reveal complex patterns of simultaneous advancement, temporal stability and delay in spring and autumn migration phenologies, altering species' life-history structures. Additionally, they demonstrate that this complexity is only revealed if multiple metrics encompassing entire seasonal event distributions, rather than single metrics, are used to quantify phenological change. Existing evidence of long-term phenological changes detected using only one or two metrics should consequently be interpreted cautiously because divergent changes occurring simultaneously could potentially have remained undetected.