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Objectives@#Between July 2, 2021, and September 20, 2022, a Mycobacterium bovis outbreak occurred among exhibition animals at a zoo in the Republic of Korea. This study was conducted to assess the likelihood of M. bovis transmission to human contacts through a contact investigation and to implement preventive treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). @*Methods@#In this descriptive study, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency conducted a contact investigation, which included interviews, interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) tests, and chest X-rays. Contacts underwent IGRA testing on 2 occasions: initial testing of 29 contacts (15 in the first cluster of infection and 14 in the second cluster) and follow-up testing of the 15 contacts in the first cluster. @*Results@#The study included 29 participants, 18 of whom were male (62.1%) and 11 female (37.9%). The mean participant age was 37.3 years (standard deviation, 9.6 years). In the initial IGRA tests, 6 of the 29 participants tested positive, indicating a prevalence of 20.7%. Following prolonged exposure, 1 additional positive case was detected in follow-up testing, raising the prevalence of LTBI to 24.1%. None of the contacts had active tuberculosis. Among the 7 individuals with positive results, 2 (28.6%) underwent treatment for LTBI. @*Conclusion@#This study faced challenges in confirming the transmission of M. bovis infection from infected animals to humans in the Republic of Korea. Nevertheless, adopting a One Health approach necessitates the implementation of surveillance systems and infection control protocols, particularly for occupational groups at high risk of exposure.
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Objectives@#We examined factors contributing to the transmission of an acute respiratory virus within multi-use facilities, focusing on an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in a movie theater in the Republic of Korea. @*Methods@#This retrospective cohort study involved a descriptive analysis of 48 confirmed cases. Logistic regression was applied to a cohort of 80 theater attendees to identify risk factors for infection. The infection source and transmission route were determined through gene sequencing data analysis. @*Results@#Of the 48 confirmed cases, 35 were theater attendees (72.9%), 10 were family members of attendees (20.8%), 2 were friends (4.2%), and 1 was an employee (2.1%). Among the 80 individuals who attended the 3rd to 5th screenings of the day, 35 became infected, representing a 43.8% attack rate. Specifically, 28 of the 33 third-screening attendees developed confirmed SARS-CoV-2, constituting an 84.8% attack rate. Furthermore, 11 of the 12 cases epidemiologically linked to the theater outbreak were clustered monophyletically within the AY.69 lineage. At the time of the screening, 35 individuals (72.9%) had received 2 vaccine doses. However, vaccination status did not significantly influence infection risk. Multivariate analysis revealed that close contacts had a 15.9-fold higher risk of infection (95% confidence interval, 4.37–78.39) than casual contacts. @*Conclusion@#SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred within the theater, and extended into the community, via a moviegoer who attended the 3rd screening during the viral incubation period after contracting the virus from a family member. This study emphasizes the importance of adequate ventilation in theaters.
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We aimed to characterize the genomes of monkeypox virus isolates from the Far East, providing insights into viral transmission and evolution. Genomic analysis was conducted on 8 isolates obtained from patients with monkeypox virus disease in the Republic of Korea between May 2022 and early 2023. These isolates were classified into Clade IIb. Distinct lineages, including B.1.1, A.2.1, and B.1.3, were observed in 2022 and 2023 isolates, with only the B.1.3 lineage detected in six isolates of 2023. These genetic features were specific to Far East isolates (the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Taiwan), distinguishing them from the diverse lineages found in the Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania. In early 2023, the prevalence of the B.1.3 lineage of monkeypox virus identified in six patients with no overseas travel history is considered as an indicator of the potential initiation of local transmission in the Republic of Korea.
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Background@#The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) approved empagliflozin for reducing cardiovascular mortality and heart failure (HF) hospitalization in patients with both HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, limited data are available on the generalizability of empagliflozin to clinical practice. Therefore, we evaluated real-world eligibility and potential cost-effectiveness based on a nationwide prospective HF registry. @*Methods@#A total of 3,108 HFrEF and 2,070 HFpEF patients from the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry were analyzed. Eligibility was estimated by inclusion and exclusion criteria of EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Reduced) and EMPagliflozin outcomE tRial in Patients With chrOnic heaRt Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) trials and by FDA & EMA label criteria. The cost-utility analysis was done using a Markov model to project the lifetime medical cost and quality-adjusted life year (QALY). @*Results@#Among the KorAHF patients, 91.4% met FDA & EMA label criteria, while 44.7% met the clinical trial criteria. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of empagliflozin was calculated at US$6,764 per QALY in the overall population, which is far below a threshold of US$18,182 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness benefit was more evident in patients with HFrEF (US$5,012 per QALY) than HFpEF (US$8,971 per QALY). @*Conclusion@#There is a large discrepancy in real-world eligibility for empagliflozin between FDA & EMA labels and clinical trial criteria. Empagliflozin is cost-effective in HF patients regardless of ejection fraction in South Korea health care setting. The efficacy and safety of empagliflozin in real-world HF patients should be further investigated for a broader range of clinical applications.
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Objectives@#This study aimed to describe the characteristics and risk factors for severe disease in pregnant women infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea to the predominant period of the Delta variant. @*Methods@#A retrospective cohort study was conducted among pregnant women diagnosed with COVID-19 between February 2020 and December 2021. Logistic regression analysis was performed to compare severe and mild cases after adjusting for pregnant women’s age, nationality, infection route, outbreak area, infection period, symptoms, underlying disease, smoking status, trimester, and COVID-19 vaccination status. @*Results@#In total, 2,233 pregnant women were diagnosed with COVID-19 by December 2021. Among these, 96.7% had mild symptoms, 3.3% had severe symptoms, and 0.04% died. The risk factors for severe disease in pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 were being in the age group of 35 to 45 years, having hyperlipidemia, being in the second or third trimester of pregnancy at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, being infected during the Delta-predominant period, and having a fever (≥38 °C) at diagnosis. Furthermore, 47.1% of patients in the mild group and 84.9% of patients in the severe group had 3 or more risk factors. @*Conclusion@#Pregnant women with COVID-19 mainly experienced mild symptoms, but those with risk factors were at a higher risk of developing severe symptoms. Therefore, treatment and follow-up management should be thoroughly implemented.
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Objectives@#The household secondary attack rate (SAR) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an important indicator for community transmission. This study aimed to characterize transmission by comparing household SARs and identifying risk factors during the periods of Delta and Omicron variant predominance in Republic of Korea. @*Methods@#We defined the period of Delta variant predominance (Delta period) as July 25, 2021 to January 15, 2022, and the period of Omicron variant predominance (Omicron period) as February 7 to September 3, 2022. The number of index cases included was 214,229 for the Delta period and 5,521,393 for the Omicron period. To identify the household SARs and risk factors for each period, logistic regression was performed to determine the adjusted odds ratio (aOR). @*Results@#The SAR was 35.2% for the Delta period and 43.1% for the Omicron period. The aOR of infection was higher in 2 groups, those aged 0 to 18 years and ≥75 years, compared to those aged 19 to 49 years. Unvaccinated individuals (vs. vaccinated individuals) and individuals experiencing initial infection (vs. individuals experiencing a second or third infection) had an increased risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2. @*Conclusion@#This study analyzed the household SARs and risk factors. We hope that the @*results@#can help develop age-specific immunization plans and responses to reduce the SAR in preparation for emerging infectious diseases or potential new variants of SARS-CoV-2.
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Purpose@#Understanding the muscle actions and resultant skin movement can enable more safe and effective botulinum toxin injection for the treatment of forehead wrinkles. We aimed to investigate skin displacement patterns of the forehead and adjacent skin due to frontalis muscle contraction using three-dimensional skin vector displacement analysis. @*Materials and Methods@#Thirty healthy individuals were enrolled. Photographs of the face were taken at rest and during maximal contraction of the frontalis muscle. Each expression image was aligned to its respective static image to compute the differences in the skin position. @*Results@#When frontalis muscle contracts, forehead skin displacement vectors were mostly vertical (63.4%), followed by lateral oblique (33.3%) and medial oblique (3.3%). In 53.3%, only the lower part of the forehead moved upward, while 40.0% showed bidirectional skin movement with transition line at a mean distance of 59.4 mm above the pupil. Moreover, 86.7% showed asymmetric skin displacement, and 83.3% showed both glabellar and eyebrow skin displacement. Frontalis muscle contraction also induced medial 2/3 (50.0%) or entire (33.3%) skin movement of the temple. @*Conclusion@#Botulinum toxin injection into the forehead can be individualized by considering the vector and asymmetry of skin displacement. Vertical or medial vector requires more centrally located injections, while laterial vector requires more laterally located injections. The presence and location of the vertical transition line are important for preventing ptosis when treating forehead lines with botulinum toxin. Glabellar movement during frontalis contraction suggests the need for a concomitant injection into the glabella to prevent glabella wrinkle accentuation.
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Objectives@#This study aimed to examine the scale, characteristics, risk factors, and modes of transmission in a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak at a high school in Seoul, Republic of Korea. @*Methods@#An epidemiological survey was conducted of 1,118 confirmed cases and closecontacts from a COVID-19 outbreak at an educational facility starting on May 31, 2021. Indepth interviews, online questionnaires, flow evaluations, and CCTV analyses were used todevise infection prevention measures. Behavioral and spatial risk factors were identified, and statistical significance was tested. @*Results@#Among 3rd-year students, there were 33 confirmed COVID-19 cases (9.6%). Students who used a study room in the annex building showed a statistically significant 4.3-foldelevation in their relative risk for infection compared to those who did not use the study room. Moreover, CCTV facial recognition analysis confirmed that 17.8% of 3rd-year students did not wear masks and had the lowest percentage of mask-wearers by grade. The air epidemiological survey conducted in the study room in the annex, which met the 3 criteria for a closed space, confirmed that there was only 10% natural ventilation due to the poor ventilation system. @*Conclusion@#To prevent and manage the spread of COVID-19 in educational facilities, advance measures that consider the size, operation, and resources of each school are crucial. In addition, various survey methodologies should be used in future studies to quickly analyze a wider range of data that can inform an evidence-based quarantine response.
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Objectives@#The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has continued since its first detection in the Republic of Korea on January 20, 2020. This study describes the early countermeasures used to minimize the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks during cohort quarantine and compares the epidemiological characteristics of 2 outbreaks in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Gwangju Metropolitan City in summer 2020. @*Methods@#An epidemiological investigation was conducted via direct visits. We investigated epidemiological characteristics, including incidence, morbidity, and mortality rates, for all residents and staff members. Demographic characteristics were analyzed using a statistical program. Additionally, the method of managing infection in LTCFs is described. @*Results@#Residents and caregivers had high incidence rates in LTCF-A and LTCF-B, respectively. LTCF-B had a longer quarantine period than LTCF-A. The attack rate was 20.02% in LTCF-A and 27.9% in LTCF- B. The mortality rate was 2.3% (1/43) in LTCF-B, the only facility in which a COVID-19 death occurred. @*Conclusion@#Extensive management requires contact minimization, which involves testing all contacts to mitigate further transmission in the early stages of LTCF outbreaks. The findings of this study can help inform and prepare public health authorities for COVID-19 outbreaks, particularly for early control in vulnerable facilities.
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Background@#Although iron deficiency (ID) is an important and treatable risk factor for heart failure (HF), data on ID are scarce in Asian patients with HF. Therefore, we sought to determine the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ID in hospitalized Korean patients with HF. @*Methods@#In this prospective, multicenter cohort study, 461 patients with acute HF seen at five tertiary centers from January to November 2019 in Korea were enrolled. ID was defined as serum ferritin < 100 μg/L or ferritin 100–299 μg/L in combination with transferrin saturation < 20%. @*Results@#The patients’ mean age was 67.6 ± 14.9 years, and 61.8% were male. Among total 461 patients, ID was present in 248 patients (53.8%). The prevalence of ID was significantly higher in women than in men (65.3% vs. 47.3%, P < 0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, the independent predictors of ID were female sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.19;95% confidence interval [CI], 1.47–3.30), valvular heart disease (OR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.10–4.17), higher heart rate (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01–1.21), anemia (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.07–2.40), and the use of clopidogrel (OR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.00–2.45). Among women, the prevalence of ID did not significantly differ between younger and older women (< 65 years: 73.7% vs. ≥ 65 years:63.0%, P = 0.222), those with low and high body mass index (BMI < 25 kg/m2 : 66.2% vs. BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 : 69.6%, P = 0.703), or those with low and high natriuretic peptide (NP) levels (NP < median: 69.8% vs. NP ≥ median: 61.1%, P = 0.295). Only 0.2% patients with acute HF received intravenous iron supplementation in Korea. @*Conclusion@#The prevalence of ID is high in hospitalized Korean patients with HF. Because ID cannot be diagnosed by clinical parameters, routine laboratory examinations are necessary to identify patients with ID.
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Background and Objectives@#Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VAECMO) as a bridge to eventual heart transplantation (HT) is increasingly used worldwide.However, the effect of different VA-ECMO types on HT outcomes remains unclear. @*Methods@#This was a retrospective observational study of 111 patients receiving VA-ECMO and awaiting HT. We assessed 3 ECMO configuration groups: peripheral (n=76), central (n=12), and peripheral to central ECMO conversion (n=23). Cox proportional hazards regression and landmark analysis were conducted to analyze the effect of the ECMO configuration on HT and in-hospital mortality rates. We also evaluated adverse events during ECMO support. @*Results@#HT was performed in the peripheral (n=48, 63.2%), central (n=10, 83.3%), and conversion (n=11, 47.8%) ECMO groups (p=0.133) with a median interval of 10.5, 16, and 30 days, respectively (p<0.001). The cumulative incidence of HT was significantly lower in the conversion group (hazard ratio, 0.292, 95% confidence interval, 0.145–0.586, p=0.001).However, there was no difference in in-hospital mortality (log-rank p=0.433). In the landmark analysis, in-hospital mortality did not differ significantly among the 3 groups.Although we did note a trend toward lower HT in the conversion group, the difference was not statistically significant. Surgical site bleeding occurred mainly in the central, while limb ischemia occurred mainly in the peripheral groups. @*Conclusions@#We suggest that if patients are being stably supported with their initial ECMO configuration, whether it is central or peripheral, it should be maintained, and ECMO conversion should only be cautiously performed when necessary.
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Objectives@#This study aimed to assess the contact tracing outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron sub-lineages BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.75 within Republic of Korea, and to generate foundational data for responding to future novel variants. @*Methods@#We conducted investigations and contact tracing for 79 confirmed BA.4 cases, 396 confirmed BA.5 cases, and 152 confirmed BA.2.75 cases. These cases were identified through random sampling of both domestically confirmed and imported cases, with the goal of evaluating the pattern of occurrence and transmissibility. @*Results@#We detected 79 instances of Omicron sub-lineage BA.4 across a span of 46 days, 396 instances of Omicron sub-lineage BA.5 in 46 days, and 152 instances of Omicron sub-lineage BA.2.75 over 62 days. One patient with severe illness was confirmed among the BA.5 cases; however, there were no reports of severe illness in the confirmed BA.4 and BA.2.75 cases. The secondary attack risk among household contacts were 19.6% for BA.4, 27.8% for BA.5, and 24.3% for BA.2.75. No statistically significant difference was found between the Omicron sub-lineages. @*Conclusion@#BA.2.75 did not demonstrate a higher tendency for transmissibility, disease severity, or secondary attack risk within households when compared to BA.4 and BA.5. We will continue to monitor major SARS-CoV-2 variants, and we plan to enhance the disease control and response systems.
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Objectives@#The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency promotes vaccination by regularly providing information on its benefits for reducing the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This study aimed to analyze the number of averted severe COVID-19 cases and COVID-19-related deaths by age group and quantify the impact of Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign. @*Methods@#We analyzed an integrated database from the beginning of the vaccination campaign on February 26, 2021 to October 15, 2022. We estimated the cumulative number of severe cases and COVID-19-related deaths over time by comparing observed and estimated cases among unvaccinated and vaccinated groups using statistical modeling. We compared daily age-adjusted rates of severe cases and deaths in the unvaccinated group to those in the vaccinated group and calculated the susceptible population and proportion of vaccinated people by age. @*Results@#There were 23,793 severe cases and 25,441 deaths related to COVID-19. We estimated that 119,579 (95% confidence interval [CI], 118,901–120,257) severe COVID-19 cases and 137,636 (95% CI, 136,909–138,363) COVID-19-related deaths would have occurred if vaccination had not been performed. Therefore, 95,786 (95% CI, 94,659–96,913) severe cases and 112,195 (95% CI, 110,870–113,520) deaths were prevented as a result of the vaccination campaign. @*Conclusion@#We found that, if the nationwide COVID-19 vaccination campaign had not been implemented, the number of severe cases and deaths would have been at least 4 times higher. These findings suggest that Republic of Korea’s nationwide vaccination campaign reduced the number of severe cases and COVID-19 deaths.
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Objectives@#We evaluated the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination in high-risk facilities in the Republic of Korea during the period when the highly transmissible Delta variant was prevalent. Additionally, we aimed to explore any disparities in vaccine effectiveness (VE) across various types of institutions, specifically distinguishing between non-medical and medical establishments. @*Methods@#We examined 8 outbreak clusters covering 243 cases and 895 contacts from 8 highrisk facilities divided into 2 groups: group A (4 non-medical institutions) and group B (4 medical institutions). These clusters were observed from July 27, 2021 to October 16, 2021 for the attack rate (AR) and VE with respect to disease severity. A generalized linear model with a binomial distribution was used to determine the odds ratio (OR) for disease severity and death. @*Results@#AR was notably lower in group B (medical institutions). Furthermore, VE analysis revealed that group A exhibited higher effectivity for disease severity and death than group B. The OR for disease severity was 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03–2.16) for group A and 0.27 (95% CI, 0.12–0.64) for group B, with the OR for death at 0.12 (95% CI, 0.01–1.32) in group A and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.14–0.87) in group B. @*Conclusion@#Although VE may vary across institutions, our findings underscore the importance of implementing vaccinations in high-risk facilities. Customized vaccination programs, tailored response plans, and competent management personnel are essential for effectively addressing and mitigating public health challenges.
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Background@#Recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB) manifests in various cutaneous and extracutaneous complications that lead to considerable morbidity and mortality, however, no precise incidence data are available. @*Objective@#To investigate the prevalence of inherited epidermolysis bullosa (EB) stratified by subtypes, demographics, and clinical characteristics in Korean patients with EB, and major clinical events and outcomes in Korean RDEB patients. @*Methods@#A total of 179 patients diagnosed with EB at a single tertiary hospital between January 2005 and January 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. @*Results@#Among the 179 patients, 86 (48.0%) had EB simplex, 45 (25.1%) had dominant dystrophic EB, 38 (21.2%) had RDEB, and 10 (5.6%) had juncttional EB. Symptoms of the disease were present at age 1 year in 38 patients with RDEB (100%), 10 with junctional EB (100%), 41 with dominant dystrophic EB (91.1%), and 63 with EB simplex (73.3%). Among the 38 patients with RDEB, 20 (52.6%) had anemia, 21 (55.3%) had pseudosyndactyly, 9 (23.7%) had cardiac disorder (23.7%) (e.g., dilated cardiomyopathy), 9 (23.7%) had ophthalmic disorders, 11 (28.9%) had methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus skin infection, 7 (18.4%) had esophageal stricture, and 4 (10.5%) developed squamous cell carcinoma at a mean age of 46.7 years. Seventeen subjects (44.7%) underwent hand/foot surgery at a mean age of 6.6 years. Six subjects (15.8%) underwent esophageal dilation at a mean age of 23 years. Five patients (13.2%) died. @*Conclusion@#RDEB affects multiple organ systems and requires a multidisciplinary therapeutic approach. Understanding the incidence and outcomes of milestone clinical events is crucial for optimal management of RDEB patients.
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Sialodochitis fibrinosa is a disease characterized by salivary duct obstruction. A 21-year-old male presented with a painful submandibular gland (SMG) swelling. Serum eosinophilia and Whartons’ duct dilatation with strong enhancement were observed on contrast CT. Core needle biopsy (CNB) for SMG parenchyma revealed lymphocytic infiltration between dilated intralobular ducts. In another case, a 39-year-old male complained of recurrent major salivary glands swelling for ten years with an itching sensation on the overlying skin of the salivary gland. Enhancement of both SMG parenchyma, dilatation of both Wharton’s ducts and elevated serum eosinophilia were observed on contrast CT study. CNB for SMG parenchyma revealed lymphocytic infiltration with many eosinophils around a markedly dilated interlobular duct. The recurrent SMG swelling in both cases were relieved by antihistamine medication, warranting suspicion that these cases might organ-specific eosinophilic disease. We dicuss these two cases with a literature review.
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Objectives@#Household contacts of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are exposed to a high risk of viral transmission, and secondary incidence is an important indicator of community transmission. This study analyzed the secondary attack rate and mRNA vaccine effectiveness against transmission (VET) for index cases (patients treated at home) confirmed to be infected with the Delta and Omicron variants. @*Methods@#The subjects of the study were 4,450 index cases and 10,382 household contacts. Logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the secondary attack rate by vaccination status, and adjusted relative risk and 95% confidence intervals were identified. @*Results@#The secondary attack rate of the Delta variant was 27.3%, while the secondary attack rate of the Omicron variant was 29.8%. For the Delta variant, groups with less than 90 days and more than 90 days after 2 doses of mRNA vaccination both showed a VET of 37%. For the Omicron variant, a 64% VET was found among those with less than 90 days after 2 doses of mRNA vaccination. @*Conclusion@#This study provides useful data on the secondary attack rate and VET of mRNA vaccines for household contacts of COVID-19 cases in South Korea.
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Objectives@#On November 5, 2021, Pfizer Inc. announced Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir+ritonavir) as a treatment method that could reduce the risk of hospitalization or death for patients with confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). @*Methods@#From February 6, 2022 to April 2, 2022, the incidence of COVID-19 and the effects of treatment with Paxlovid were analyzed in 2,241 patients and workers at 5 long-term care facilities during the outbreak of the Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea. @*Results@#The rate of severe illness or death in the group given Paxlovid was 51% lower than that of the non-Paxlovid group (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24−0.98). Compared to unvaccinated patients, patients who had completed 3 doses of the vaccine had a 71% reduced rate of severe illness or death (aRR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.13−0.64) and a 65% reduced death rate (aRR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.15−0.79). @*Conclusion@#Patients given Paxlovid showed a lower rate of severe illness or death and a lower fatality rate than those who did not receive Paxlovid. Patients who received 3 doses of the vaccine had a lower rate of severe illness or death and a lower fatality rate than the unvaccinated group.
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Background@#Previously developed prediction models for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have limited performance. We developed a deep learning (DL) based model using a cohort representative of the Korean population. @*Methods@#This study was conducted on the basis of the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening (NHIS-HEALS) cohort of Korea. Overall, 335,302 subjects without T2DM at baseline were included. We developed the model based on 80% of the subjects, and verified the power in the remainder. Predictive models for T2DM were constructed using the recurrent neural network long short-term memory (RNN-LSTM) network and the Cox longitudinal summary model. The performance of both models over a 10-year period was compared using a time dependent area under the curve. @*Results@#During a mean follow-up of 10.4±1.7 years, the mean frequency of periodic health check-ups was 2.9±1.0 per subject. During the observation period, T2DM was newly observed in 8.7% of the subjects. The annual performance of the model created using the RNN-LSTM network was superior to that of the Cox model, and the risk factors for T2DM, derived using the two models were similar; however, certain results differed. @*Conclusion@#The DL-based T2DM prediction model, constructed using a cohort representative of the population, performs better than the conventional model. After pilot tests, this model will be provided to all Korean national health screening recipients in the future.
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Background@#Previously developed prediction models for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have limited performance. We developed a deep learning (DL) based model using a cohort representative of the Korean population. @*Methods@#This study was conducted on the basis of the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening (NHIS-HEALS) cohort of Korea. Overall, 335,302 subjects without T2DM at baseline were included. We developed the model based on 80% of the subjects, and verified the power in the remainder. Predictive models for T2DM were constructed using the recurrent neural network long short-term memory (RNN-LSTM) network and the Cox longitudinal summary model. The performance of both models over a 10-year period was compared using a time dependent area under the curve. @*Results@#During a mean follow-up of 10.4±1.7 years, the mean frequency of periodic health check-ups was 2.9±1.0 per subject. During the observation period, T2DM was newly observed in 8.7% of the subjects. The annual performance of the model created using the RNN-LSTM network was superior to that of the Cox model, and the risk factors for T2DM, derived using the two models were similar; however, certain results differed. @*Conclusion@#The DL-based T2DM prediction model, constructed using a cohort representative of the population, performs better than the conventional model. After pilot tests, this model will be provided to all Korean national health screening recipients in the future.