Bayesian nonparametric inference for heterogeneously mixing infectious disease models.

SignificanceMathematical models of infectious disease transmission continue to play a vital role in understanding, mitigating, and preventing outbreaks. The vast majority of epidemic models in the literature are parametric, meaning that they contain inherent assumptions about how transmission occurs in a population. However, such assumptions can be lacking in appropriate biological or epidemiological justification and in consequence lead to erroneous scientific conclusions and misleading predictions. We propose a flexible Bayesian nonparametric framework that avoids the need to make strict model assumptions about the infection process and enables a far more data-driven modeling approach for inferring the mechanisms governing transmission. We use our methods to enhance our understanding of the transmission mechanisms of the 2001 UK foot and mouth disease outbreak.

Cognitive impairment and exploitation: connecting fragments of a bigger picture through data.

BACKGROUND: Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights 'jigsaw pieces' of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation. METHODS: We reviewed English Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) data and Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) from 2017 to 22. Data relevant to exploitation and cognitive impairment were analysed using summary statistics and 'analysis of variance'. RESULTS: Despite estimates suggesting cognitive impairments may be prevalent among people experiencing exploitation in England, national datasets miss opportunities to illuminate this issue. Although SAC data include statistics on support needs and various forms of abuse and exploitation, they lack intersectional data. Significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations and potential conflation between abuse and exploitation also suggest data inconsistencies. Increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services indicate that adults may be 'slipping through the net'. SARs, although representing serious cases, provide stronger evidence linking cognitive impairment with risks of exploitation. CONCLUSIONS: This study identifies opportunities to collect detailed information on cognitive impairment and exploitation. The extremely limited quantitative evidence-base could be enhanced using existing data channels to build a more robust picture, as well as improve prevention, identification and response efforts for 'at-risk' adults.