Spatially heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology induced by climate change threaten the integrity of the avian migration network.

Phenological responses to climate change frequently vary among trophic levels, which can result in increasing asynchrony between the peak energy requirements of consumers and the availability of resources. Migratory birds use multiple habitats with seasonal food resources along migration flyways. Spatially heterogeneous climate change could cause the phenology of food availability along the migration flyway to become desynchronized. Such heterogeneous shifts in food phenology could pose a challenge to migratory birds by reducing their opportunity for food availability along the migration path and consequently influencing their survival and reproduction. We develop a novel graph-based approach to quantify this problem and deploy it to evaluate the condition of the heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology for 16 migratory herbivorous waterfowl species in Asia. We show that climate change-induced heterogeneous shifts in vegetation phenology could cause a 12% loss of migration network integrity on average across all study species. Species that winter at relatively lower latitudes are subjected to a higher loss of integrity in their migration network. These findings highlight the susceptibility of migratory species to climate change. Our proposed methodological framework could be applied to migratory species in general to yield an accurate assessment of the exposure under climate change and help to identify actions for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate-related risks.

Social Familiarity and Spatially Variable Environments Independently Determine Reproductive Fitness in a Wild Bird.

AbstractThe social interactions that an individual experiences are a key component of its environment and can have important consequences for reproductive success. The dear enemy effect posits that having familiar neighbors at a territory boundary can reduce the need for territory defense and competition and potentially increase cooperation. Although fitness benefits of reproducing among familiar individuals are documented in many species, it remains unclear to what extent these relationships are driven by direct benefits of familiarity itself versus other socioecological covariates of familiarity. We use 58 years of great tit (Parus major) breeding data to disentangle the relationship between neighbor familiarity, partner familiarity, and reproductive success while simultaneously considering individual and spatiotemporal effects. We find that neighbor familiarity was positively associated with reproductive success for females but not males, while an individual's familiarity with their breeding partner was associated with fitness benefits for both sexes. There was strong spatial heterogeneity in all investigated fitness components, but our findings were robust and significant over and above these effects. Our analyses are consistent with direct effects of familiarity on individuals' fitness outcomes. These results suggest that social familiarity can yield direct fitness benefits, potentially driving the maintenance of long-term bonds and evolution of stable social systems.

Phenotypic plasticity increases exposure to extreme climatic events that reduce individual fitness.

Climate models, and empirical observations, suggest that anthropogenic climate change is leading to changes in the occurrence and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs). Effects of changes in mean climate on phenology, movement, and demography in animal and plant populations are well documented. In contrast, work exploring the impacts of ECEs on natural populations is less common, at least partially due to the challenges of obtaining sufficient data to study such rare events. Here, we assess the effect of changes in ECE patterns in a long-term study of great tits, near Oxford, over a 56-year period between 1965 and 2020. We document marked changes in the frequency of temperature ECEs, with cold ECEs being twice as frequent in the 1960s than at present, and hot ECEs being ~three times more frequent between 2010 and 2020 than in the 1960s. While the effect of single ECEs was generally quite small, we show that increased exposure to ECEs often reduces reproductive output, and that in some cases the effect of different types of ECE is synergistic. We further show that long-term temporal changes in phenology, resulting from phenotypic plasticity, lead to an elevated risk of exposure to low temperature ECEs early in reproduction, and hence suggest that changes in ECE exposure may act as a cost of plasticity. Overall, our analyses reveal a complex set of risks of exposure and effects as ECE patterns change and highlight the importance of considering responses to changes in both mean climate and extreme events. Patterns in exposure and effects of ECEs on natural populations remain underexplored and continued work will be vital to establish the impacts of ECEs on populations in a changing climate.

Variation in local population size predicts social network structure in wild songbirds.

The structure of animal societies is a key determinant of many ecological and evolutionary processes. Yet, we know relatively little about the factors and mechanisms that underpin detailed social structure. Among other factors, social structure can be influenced by habitat configuration. By shaping animal movement decisions, heterogeneity in habitat features, such as vegetation and the availability of resources, can influence the spatiotemporal distribution of individuals and subsequently key socioecological properties such as the local population size and density. Differences in local population size and density can impact opportunities for social associations and may thus drive substantial variation in local social structure. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal variation in population size at 65 distinct locations in a small songbird, the great tit (Parus major) and its effect on social network structure. We first explored the within-location consistency of population size from weekly samples and whether the observed variation in local population size was predicted by the underlying habitat configuration. Next, we created social networks from the birds' foraging associations at each location for each week and examined if local population size affected social structure. We show that population size is highly repeatable within locations across weeks and years and that some of the observed variation in local population size was predicted by the underlying habitat, with locations closer to the forest edge having on average larger population sizes. Furthermore, we show that local population size affected social structure inferred by four global network metrics. Using simple simulations, we then reveal that much of the observed social structure is shaped by social processes. Across different population sizes, the birds' social structure was largely explained by their preference to forage in flocks. In addition, over and above effects of social foraging, social preferences between birds (i.e. social relationships) shaped certain network features such as the extent of realized social connections. Our findings thus suggest that individual social decisions substantially contribute to shaping certain social network features over and above effects of population size alone.

Disentangling the causes of age-assortative mating in bird populations with contrasting life-history strategies.

Age shapes fundamental processes related to behaviour, survival and reproduction, where age influences reproductive success, non-random mating with respect to age can magnify or mitigate such effects. Consequently, the correlation in partners' age across a population may influence its productivity. Despite widespread evidence for age-assortative mating, little is known about what drives this assortment and its variation. Specifically, the relative importance of active (same-age mate preference) and passive processes (assortment as a consequence of other spatial or temporal effects) in driving age assortment is not well understood. In this paper, we compare breeding data from a great tit and mute swan population (51- and 31-year datasets, respectively) to tease apart the contributions of pair retention, cohort age structure and active age-related mate selection to age assortment in species with contrasting life histories. Both species show age-assortative mating and variable assortment between years. However, we demonstrate that the drivers of age assortment differ between the species, as expected from their life histories and resultant demographic differences. In great tits, pair fidelity has a weak effect on age-assortative mating through pair retention; variation in age assortment is primarily driven by fluctuations in age structure from variable juvenile recruitment. Age-assortative mating is, therefore, largely passive, with no evidence consistent with active age-related mate selection. In mute swans, age assortment is partly explained by pair retention, but not population age structure, and evidence exists for active age-assortative pairing. This difference is likely to result from shorter life-spans in great tits compared with mute swans, leading to fundamental differences in their population age structure, whereby a larger proportion of great tit populations consist of a single age cohort. In mute swans, age-assortative pairing through mate selection may also be driven by greater age-dependent variation in fitness. The study highlights the importance of considering how different life histories and demographic differences arising from these affect population processes that appear congruent across species. We suggest that future research should focus on uncovering the proximate mechanisms that lead to variation in active age-assortative mate selection (as seen in mute swans); and the consequences of variation in age structure on the ecological and social functioning of wild populations.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals.

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Social phenotype-dependent selection of social environment in wild great and blue tits: an experimental study.

There is growing evidence that individuals actively assess the match between their phenotype and their environment when making habitat choice decisions (so-called matching habitat choice). However, to our knowledge, no studies have considered how the social environment may interact with social phenotype in determining habitat choice, despite habitat choice being an inherently social process and growing evidence for individual variation in sociability. We conducted an experiment using wild great and blue tits to understand how birds integrate their social phenotype and social environment when choosing where and how to feed. We used programmable feeders to (i) record social interactions and estimate social phenotype, and (ii) experimentally manipulate the local density experienced by birds of differing social phenotype. By tracking feeder usage, we estimated how social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder choice and feeding behaviour. Both social environment and social phenotype predicted feeder usage, but a bird's decision to remain in a particular social environment did not depend on their social phenotype. By contrast, for feeding behaviour, responses to the social environment depended on social phenotype. Our results provide rare evidence of matching habitat choice and shed light on the dependence of habitat choice on between-individual differences in social phenotype.

Human activity shapes the wintering ecology of a migratory bird.

Human behavior profoundly affects the natural world. Migratory birds are particularly susceptible to adverse effects of human activities because the global networks of ecosystems on which birds rely are undergoing rapid change. In spite of these challenges, the blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) is a thriving migratory species. Its recent establishment of high-latitude wintering areas in Britain and Ireland has been linked to climate change and backyard bird feeding, exemplifying the interaction between human activity and migrant ecology. To understand how anthropogenic influences shape avian movements and ecology, we marked 623 wintering blackcaps at 59 sites across Britain and Ireland and compiled a dataset of 9929 encounters. We investigated visitation behavior at garden feeding sites, inter-annual site fidelity, and movements within and across seasons. We analyzed migration tracks from 25 geolocators fitted to a subset of individuals to understand how garden behavior may impact subsequent migration and breeding. We found that blackcaps wintering in Britain and Ireland showed high site fidelity and low transience among wintering sites, in contrast to the itinerant movements characteristic of blackcaps wintering in their traditional winter range. First-winter birds showed lower site fidelity and a greater likelihood of transience than adults. Adults that frequented gardens had better body condition, smaller fat stores, longer bills, and rounder wingtips. However, blackcaps did not exclusively feed in gardens; visits were linked to harsher weather. Individuals generally stayed at garden sites until immediately before spring departure. Our results suggest that supplementary feeding is modifying blackcap winter ecology and driving morphological evolution. Supplemental feeding may have multifaceted benefits on winter survival, and these positive effects may carry over to migration and subsequent breeding. Overall, the high individual variability in blackcap movement and foraging ecology, and the flexibility it imparts, may have allowed this species to flourish during rapid environmental change.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub.

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Experimentally induced innovations lead to persistent culture via conformity in wild birds.

In human societies, cultural norms arise when behaviours are transmitted through social networks via high-fidelity social learning. However, a paucity of experimental studies has meant that there is no comparable understanding of the process by which socially transmitted behaviours might spread and persist in animal populations. Here we show experimental evidence of the establishment of foraging traditions in a wild bird population. We introduced alternative novel foraging techniques into replicated wild sub-populations of great tits (Parus major) and used automated tracking to map the diffusion, establishment and long-term persistence of the seeded innovations. Furthermore, we used social network analysis to examine the social factors that influenced diffusion dynamics. From only two trained birds in each sub-population, the information spread rapidly through social network ties, to reach an average of 75% of individuals, with a total of 414 knowledgeable individuals performing 57,909 solutions over all replicates. The sub-populations were heavily biased towards using the technique that was originally introduced, resulting in established local traditions that were stable over two generations, despite a high population turnover. Finally, we demonstrate a strong effect of social conformity, with individuals disproportionately adopting the most frequent local variant when first acquiring an innovation, and continuing to favour social information over personal information. Cultural conformity is thought to be a key factor in the evolution of complex culture in humans. In providing the first experimental demonstration of conformity in a wild non-primate, and of cultural norms in foraging techniques in any wild animal, our results suggest a much broader taxonomic occurrence of such an apparently complex cultural behaviour.

Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?

Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life-history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well-characterised great tit-caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Social learning of acoustic anti-predator cues occurs between wild bird species.

In many species, individuals gather information about their environment both through direct experience and through information obtained from others. Social learning, or the acquisition of information from others, can occur both within and between species and may facilitate the rapid spread of antipredator behaviour. Within birds, acoustic signals are frequently used to alert others to the presence of predators, and individuals can quickly learn to associate novel acoustic cues with predation risk. However, few studies have addressed whether such learning occurs only though direct experience or whether it has a social component, nor whether such learning can occur between species. We investigate these questions in two sympatric species of Parids: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major). Using playbacks of unfamiliar bird vocalizations paired with a predator model in a controlled aviary setting, we find that blue tits can learn to associate a novel sound with predation risk via direct experience, and that antipredator response to the sound can be socially transmitted to heterospecific observers, despite lack of first-hand experience. Our results suggest that social learning of acoustic cues can occur between species. Such interspecific social information transmission may help to mediate the formation of mixed-species aggregations.

Individual variability and versatility in an eco-evolutionary model of avian migration.

Seasonal migration is a complex and variable behaviour with the potential to promote reproductive isolation. In Eurasian blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla), a migratory divide in central Europe separating populations with southwest (SW) and southeast (SE) autumn routes may facilitate isolation, and individuals using new wintering areas in Britain show divergence from Mediterranean winterers. We tracked 100 blackcaps in the wild to characterize these strategies. Blackcaps to the west and east of the divide used predominantly SW and SE directions, respectively, but close to the contact zone many individuals took intermediate (S) routes. At 14.0° E, we documented a sharp transition from SW to SE migratory directions across only 27 (10-86) km, implying a strong selection gradient across the divide. Blackcaps wintering in Britain took northwesterly migration routes from continental European breeding grounds. They originated from a surprisingly extensive area, spanning 2000 km of the breeding range. British winterers bred in sympatry with SW-bound migrants but arrived 9.8 days earlier on the breeding grounds, suggesting some potential for assortative mating by timing. Overall, our data reveal complex variation in songbird migration and suggest that selection can maintain variation in migration direction across short distances while enabling the spread of a novel strategy across a wide range.

Conformity does not perpetuate suboptimal traditions in a wild population of songbirds.

Social learning is important to the life history of many animals, helping individuals to acquire new adaptive behavior. However despite long-running debate, it remains an open question whether a reliance on social learning can also lead to mismatched or maladaptive behavior. In a previous study, we experimentally induced traditions for opening a bidirectional door puzzle box in replicate subpopulations of the great tit Parus major Individuals were conformist social learners, resulting in stable cultural behaviors. Here, we vary the rewards gained by these techniques to ask to what extent established behaviors are flexible to changing conditions. When subpopulations with established foraging traditions for one technique were subjected to a reduced foraging payoff, 49% of birds switched their behavior to a higher-payoff foraging technique after only 14 days, with younger individuals showing a faster rate of change. We elucidated the decision-making process for each individual, using a mechanistic learning model to demonstrate that, perhaps surprisingly, this population-level change was achieved without significant asocial exploration and without any evidence for payoff-biased copying. Rather, by combining conformist social learning with payoff-sensitive individual reinforcement (updating of experience), individuals and populations could both acquire adaptive behavior and track environmental change.

Accounting for interspecific competition and age structure in demographic analyses of density dependence improves predictions of fluctuations in population size.

Understanding species coexistence has long been a major goal of ecology. Coexistence theory for two competing species posits that intraspecific density dependence should be stronger than interspecific density dependence. Great tits and blue tits are two bird species that compete for food resources and nesting cavities. On the basis of long-term monitoring of these two competing species at sites across Europe, combining observational and manipulative approaches, we show that the strength of density regulation is similar for both species, and that individuals have contrasting abilities to compete depending on their age. For great tits, density regulation is driven mainly by intraspecific competition. In contrast, for blue tits, interspecific competition contributes as much as intraspecific competition, consistent with asymmetric competition between the two species. In addition, including age-specific effects of intra- and interspecific competition in density-dependence models improves predictions of fluctuations in population size by up to three times.

Movement and conformity interact to establish local behavioural traditions in animal populations.

The social transmission of information is critical to the emergence of animal culture. Two processes are predicted to play key roles in how socially-transmitted information spreads in animal populations: the movement of individuals across the landscape and conformist social learning. We develop a model that, for the first time, explicitly integrates these processes to investigate their impacts on the spread of behavioural preferences. Our results reveal a strong interplay between movement and conformity in determining whether locally-variable traditions establish across a landscape or whether a single preference dominates the whole population. The model is able to replicate a real-world cultural diffusion experiment in great tits Parus major, but also allows for a range of predictions for the emergence of animal culture under various initial conditions, habitat structure and strength of conformist bias to be made. Integrating social behaviour with ecological variation will be important for understanding the stability and diversity of culture in animals.

Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools.

Changes in the timing of life-history events (phenology) are a widespread consequence of climate change. Predicting population resilience requires knowledge of how phenology is likely to change over time, which can be gained by identifying the specific environmental cues that drive phenological events. Cue identification is often achieved with statistical testing of candidate cues. As the number of methods used to generate predictions increases, assessing the predictive accuracy of different approaches has become necessary. This study aims to (a) provide an empirical illustration of the predictive ability of five commonly applied statistical methods for cue identification (absolute and relative sliding time window analyses, penalized signal regression, climate sensitivity profiles and a growing degree-day model) and (b) discuss approaches for implementing cue identification methods in different systems. Using a dataset of mean clutch initiation timing in wild great tits (Parus major), we explored how the days of the year identified as most important, and the aggregate statistic identified as a cue, differed between statistical methods and with respect to the time span of data used. Each method's predictive capacity was tested using cross-validation and assessed for robustness to varying sample size. We show that the identified critical time window of cue sensitivity was consistent across four of the five methods. The accuracy and precision of predictions differed by method with penalized signal regression resulting in the most accurate and most precise predictions in our case. Accuracy was maximal for near-future predictions and showed a relationship with time. The difference between predictions and observations systematically shifted across the study from preceding observations to lagging. This temporal trend in prediction error suggests that the current statistical tools either fail to capture a key component of the cue-phenology relationship, or the relationship itself is changing through time in our system. These two influences need to be teased apart if we are to generate realistic predictions of phenological change. We recommend future phenological studies to challenge the idea of a static cue-phenology relationship and should cross-validate results across multiple time periods.

Indirectly connected: simple social differences can explain the causes and apparent consequences of complex social network positions.

Animal societies are often structurally complex. How individuals are positioned within the wider social network (i.e. their indirect social connections) has been shown to be repeatable, heritable and related to key life-history variables. Yet, there remains a general lack of understanding surrounding how complex network positions arise, whether they indicate active multifaceted social decisions by individuals, and how natural selection could act on this variation. We use simulations to assess how variation in simple social association rules between individuals can determine their positions within emerging social networks. Our results show that metrics of individuals' indirect connections can be more strongly related to underlying simple social differences than metrics of their dyadic connections. External influences causing network noise (typical of animal social networks) generally inflated these differences. The findings demonstrate that relationships between complex network positions and other behaviours or fitness components do not provide sufficient evidence for the presence, or importance, of complex social behaviours, even if direct network metrics provide less explanatory power than indirect ones. Interestingly however, a plausible and straightforward heritable basis for complex network positions can arise from simple social differences, which in turn creates potential for selection to act on indirect connections.

Wild birds respond to flockmate loss by increasing their social network associations to others.

Understanding the consequences of losing individuals from wild populations is a current and pressing issue, yet how such loss influences the social behaviour of the remaining animals is largely unexplored. Through combining the automated tracking of winter flocks of over 500 wild great tits (Parus major) with removal experiments, we assessed how individuals' social network positions responded to the loss of their social associates. We found that the extent of flockmate loss that individuals experienced correlated positively with subsequent increases in the number of their social associations, the average strength of their bonds and their overall connectedness within the social network (defined as summed edge weights). Increased social connectivity was not driven by general disturbance or changes in foraging behaviour, but by modifications to fine-scale social network connections in response to losing their associates. Therefore, the reduction in social connectedness expected by individual loss may be mitigated by increases in social associations between remaining individuals. Given that these findings demonstrate rapid adjustment of social network associations in response to the loss of previous social ties, future research should examine the generality of the compensatory adjustment of social relations in ways that maintain the structure of social organization.