Socioeconomic changes predict genome-wide DNA methylation in childhood.

Childhood socioeconomic position (SEP) is a major determinant of health and well-being across the entire life course. To effectively prevent and reduce health risks related to SEP, it is critical to better understand when and under what circumstances socioeconomic adversity shapes biological processes. DNA methylation (DNAm) is one such mechanism for how early life adversity 'gets under the skin'. In this study, we evaluated the dynamic relationship between SEP and DNAm across childhood using data from 946 mother-child pairs in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. We assessed six SEP indicators spanning financial, occupational and residential domains during very early childhood (ages 0-2), early childhood (ages 3-5) and middle childhood (ages 6-7). Epigenome-wide DNAm was measured at 412 956 cytosine-guanines (CpGs) from peripheral blood at age 7. Using an innovative two-stage structured life-course modeling approach, we tested three life-course hypotheses for how SEP shapes DNAm profiles-accumulation, sensitive period and mobility. We showed that changes in the socioeconomic environment were associated with the greatest differences in DNAm, and that middle childhood may be a potential sensitive period when socioeconomic instability is especially important in shaping DNAm. Top SEP-related DNAm CpGs were overrepresented in genes involved in pathways important for neural development, immune function and metabolic processes. Our findings highlight the importance of socioeconomic stability during childhood and if replicated, may emphasize the need for public programs to help children and families experiencing socioeconomic instability and other forms of socioeconomic adversity.

Depressive symptoms in adolescence and adult educational and employment outcomes: a structured life course analysis.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common mental health disorder that often starts during adolescence, with potentially important future consequences including 'Not in Education, Employment or Training' (NEET) status. METHODS: We took a structured life course modeling approach to examine how depressive symptoms during adolescence might be associated with later NEET status, using a high-quality longitudinal data resource. We considered four plausible life course models: (1) an early adolescent sensitive period model where depressive symptoms in early adolescence are more associated with later NEET status relative to exposure at other stages; (2) a mid adolescent sensitive period model where depressive symptoms during the transition from compulsory education to adult life might be more deleterious regarding NEET status; (3) a late adolescent sensitive period model, meaning that depressive symptoms around the time when most adults have completed their education and started their careers are the most strongly associated with NEET status; and (4) an accumulation of risk model which highlights the importance of chronicity of symptoms. RESULTS: Our analysis sample included participants with full information on NEET status (N = 3951), and the results supported the accumulation of risk model, showing that the odds of NEET increase by 1.015 (95% CI 1.012-1.019) for an increase of 1 unit in depression at any age between 11 and 24 years. CONCLUSIONS: Given the adverse implications of NEET status, our results emphasize the importance of supporting mental health during adolescence and early adulthood, as well as considering specific needs of young people with re-occurring depressed mood.

The relationship between type, timing and duration of exposure to adverse childhood experiences and adolescent self-harm and depression: findings from three UK prospective population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are well-established risk factors for self-harm and depression. However, despite their high comorbidity, there has been little focus on the impact of developmental timing and the duration of exposure to ACEs on co-occurring self-harm and depression. METHODS: Data were utilised from over 22,000 children and adolescents participating in three UK cohorts, followed up longitudinally for 14-18 years: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) and the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study. Multinomial logistic regression models estimated associations between each ACE type and a four-category outcome: no self-harm or depression, self-harm alone, depression alone and self-harm with co-occurring depression. A structured life course modelling approach was used to examine whether the accumulation (duration) of exposure to each ACE, or a critical period (timing of ACEs) had the strongest effects on self-harm and depression in adolescence. RESULTS: The majority of ACEs were associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, with consistent findings across cohorts. The importance of timing and duration of ACEs differed across ACEs and across cohorts. For parental mental health problems, longer duration of exposure was strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression in both ALSPAC (adjusted OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.10-1.25) and MCS (1.18, 1.11-1.26) cohorts. For other ACEs in ALSPAC, exposure in middle childhood was most strongly associated with co-occurring self-harm and depression, and ACE occurrence in early childhood and adolescence was more important in the MCS. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to mitigate the impact of ACEs should start in early life with continued support throughout childhood, to prevent long-term exposure to ACEs contributing to risk of self-harm and depression in adolescence.

Developing emotional preparedness and mental resilience through high-fidelity simulation: a 'bridge too far' for institutions teaching major trauma management and mass-casualty medicine?

BACKGROUND: Clinical acumen represents only part of being adequately equipped to attend a major incident. The emotive sights, sounds and smells of these dynamic environments are all-encompassing experiences, and responders must also be armed with the emotional preparedness to perform their clinical or managerial duties effectively, as well as the mental resilience to facilitate professional continuance. Despite this, limited training and a sparsity of evidence exists to guide developments within this domain. Historically, major incident training has focused on clinical theory acquisition, but irrespective of how comprehensive the learning materials, they are of little consequence if tandem steps to cultivate mental resilience and emotional preparedness are absent. High-Fidelity Simulation (HFS) has a growing reputation as an effective means of bridging important gaps between theory and practice. This pilot study aimed to measure student's self-reported perception of their readiness to respond to a major incident following a large-scale HFS. METHODS: Quantitative data was obtained from a sample of 108 students undertaking paramedic science, physician associate studies and adult nursing degree programmes. A bespoke questionnaire was developed to measure self-reported clinical acumen, mental and emotional preparedness. RESULTS: 91% of students agreed the combination of theoretical training and HFS provided made them feel clinically prepared to attend a real major incident; 86% agreed this experience had developed their mental resilience and 90% agreed that they felt emotionally prepared to attend a major incident. CONCLUSION: Within this pilot study, the blend of theoretical training and HFS contributed to self-reported clinical acumen, mental and emotional preparation, in learners training to work in disaster environments or emergency medicine settings.

Testing lifecourse theories characterising associations between maternal depression and offspring depression in emerging adulthood: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children.

BACKGROUND: Maternal depression is a major determinant of offspring mental health. Yet, little is understood about how the duration and timing of maternal depression shapes youth risk for depressive symptoms, which if understood could inform when best to intervene. This study aimed to determine how the timing and duration of maternal depression was related to offspring depression in emerging adulthood, and if these associations varied by sex. METHODS: We analysed data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (a prenatal cohort in the Avon area of England, 1991-2003), n = 3,301. We applied the structured lifecourse modelling approach to maternal depression (assessed at 13 points from prenatal period to adolescence) and emerging adult depressive symptoms (age 21). Lifecourse models assessed were accumulation (sum of timepoints when maternal depression was reported), sensitive periods (each period assessed as one during which maternal depression has a stronger effect) and instability (frequent fluctuations in maternal depression). RESULTS: Female adolescents (n = 2,132) had higher SMFQ scores (mean = 6.15, SD = 5.90) than males (n = 1,169, mean = 4.87, SD = 4.82). Maternal depression was most common in the infancy period (21.2% males; 21.4% females). For males, accumulation was the most appropriate lifecourse model; for each additional period of maternal depression, depressive symptoms in emerging adulthood increased by 0.11 (95% CI: 0.07, 0.15, one-sided p value ≤ .001). For females, exposure to maternal depression was associated with increasing depressive symptoms in emerging adulthood, with the largest effect in mid-childhood (increase of 0.27 units, 95% CI 0.03-0.50, p = .015 for difference between mid-childhood and other time-periods) and a smaller, equal effect at all other time-periods (increase of 0.07 units per time-period, 95% CI: 0.03-0.12, p = .002). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of ongoing maternal depression for the development of depression in offspring through to emerging adulthood. Because long-term exposure to maternal depression was particularly important, early interventions are warranted.

Exposure to early childhood maltreatment and its effect over time on social cognition.

Social cognitive deficits can have many negative consequences, spanning social withdrawal to psychopathology. Prior work has shown that child maltreatment may associate with poorer social cognitive skills in later life. However, no studies have examined this association from early childhood into adolescence. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; n = 4,438), we examined the association between maltreatment (caregiver physical or emotional abuse; sexual or physical abuse), assessed repeatedly (every 1-3 years) from birth to age 9, and social cognitive skills at ages 7.5, 10.5, and 14 years. We evaluated the role of both the developmental timing (defined by age at exposure) and accumulation of maltreatment (defined as the number of occasions exposed) using a least angle regression variable selection procedure, followed by structural equation modeling. Among females, accumulation of maltreatment explained the most variation in social cognitive skills. For males, no significant associations were found. These findings underscore the importance of early intervention to minimize the accumulation of maltreatment and showcase the importance of prospective studies to understand the development of social cognition over time.

A Structured Approach to Evaluating Life-Course Hypotheses: Moving Beyond Analyses of Exposed Versus Unexposed in the -Omics Context.

The structured life-course modeling approach (SLCMA) is a theory-driven analytical method that empirically compares multiple prespecified life-course hypotheses characterizing time-dependent exposure-outcome relationships to determine which theory best fits the observed data. In this study, we performed simulations and empirical analyses to evaluate the performance of the SLCMA when applied to genomewide DNA methylation (DNAm). Using simulations (n = 700), we compared 5 statistical inference tests used with SLCMA, assessing the familywise error rate, statistical power, and confidence interval coverage to determine whether inference based on these tests was valid in the presence of substantial multiple testing and small effects-2 hallmark challenges of inference from -omics data. In the empirical analyses (n = 703), we evaluated the time-dependent relationship between childhood abuse and genomewide DNAm. In simulations, selective inference and the max-|t|-test performed best: Both controlled the familywise error rate and yielded moderate statistical power. Empirical analyses using SLCMA revealed time-dependent effects of childhood abuse on DNAm. Our findings show that SLCMA, applied and interpreted appropriately, can be used in high-throughput settings to examine time-dependent effects underlying exposure-outcome relationships over the life course. We provide recommendations for applying the SLCMA in -omics settings and encourage researchers to move beyond analyses of exposed versus unexposed individuals.

2008 financial crisis versus 2020 economic fallout: how COVID-19 might influence fertility treatment and live births.

RESEARCH QUESTION: The economic and reproductive medicine response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the USA has reduced the affordability and accessibility of fertility care. What is the impact of the 2008 financial recession and the COVID-19 recession on fertility treatments and cumulative live births? DESIGN: The study examined annual US natality, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention IVF cycle activity and live birth data from 1999 to 2018 encompassing 3,286,349 treatment cycles, to estimate the age-stratified reduction in IVF cycles undertaken after the 2008 financial recession, with forward quantitative modelling of IVF cycle activity and cumulative live births for 2020 to 2023. RESULTS: The financial recession of 2008 caused a 4-year plateau in fertility treatments with a predicted 53,026 (95% confidence interval [CI] 49,581 to 56,471) fewer IVF cycles and 16,872 (95% CI 16,713 to 17,031) fewer live births. A similar scale of economic recession would cause 67,386 (95% CI 61,686 to 73,086) fewer IVF cycles between 2020 and 2023, with women younger than 35 years overall undertaking 22,504 (95% CI 14,320 to 30,690) fewer cycles, compared with 4445 (95% CI 3144 to 5749) fewer cycles in women over the age of 40 years. This equates to overall 25,143 (95% CI 22,408 to 27,877) fewer predicted live births from IVF, of which only 490 (95% CI 381 to 601) are anticipated to occur in women over the age of 40 years. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 recession could have a profound impact on US IVF live birth rates in young women, further aggravating pre-existing declines in total fertility rates.

The mental health effects of pet death during childhood: is it better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all?

Pet ownership is common. Growing evidence suggests children form deep emotional attachments to their pets. Yet, little is known about children's emotional reactions to a pet's death. The goal of this study was to describe the relationship between experiences of pet death and risk of childhood psychopathology and determine if it was "better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all". Data came from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK-based prospective birth cohort (n = 6260). Children were characterized based on their exposure to pet ownership and pet death from birth to age 7 (never loved; loved without loss; loved with loss). Psychopathology symptoms at age 8 were compared across groups using multivariable linear regression. Psychopathology symptoms were higher among children who had loved with loss compared to those who had loved without loss (ß = 0.35, p = 0.013; 95% CI = 0.07, 0.63), even after adjustment for other adversities. This group effect was more pronounced in males than in females. There was no difference in psychopathology symptoms between children who had loved with loss and those who had never loved (ß = 0.20, p = 0.31, 95% CI = -0.18-0.58). The developmental timing, recency, or accumulation of pet death was unassociated with psychopathology symptoms. Pet death may be traumatic for children and associated with subsequent mental health difficulties. Where childhood pet ownership and pet bereavement is concerned, Tennyson's pronouncement may not apply to children's grief responses: it may not be "better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all".

Population implications of cessation of IVF during the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESEARCH QUESTION: Discontinuation of IVF cycles has been part of the radical transformation of healthcare provision to enable reallocation of staff and resources to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study sought to estimate the impact of cessation of treatment on individual prognosis and US population live birth rates. DESIGN: Data from 271,438 ovarian stimulation UK IVF cycles was used to model the effect of age as a continuous, yet non-linear, function on cumulative live birth rate. This model was recalibrated to cumulative live birth rates reported for the 135,673 stimulation cycles undertaken in the USA in 2016, with live birth follow-up to October 2018. The effect of a 1-month, 3-month and 6-month shutdown in IVF treatment was calculated as the effect of the equivalent increase in a woman's age, stratified by age group. RESULTS: The average reduction in cumulative live birth rate would be 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.3-0.3), 0.8% (95% CI 0.8-0.8) and 1.6% (95% CI 1.6-1.6) for 1-month, 3-month and 6-month shutdowns. This corresponds to a reduction of 369 (95% CI 360-378), 1098 (95% CI 1071-1123) and 2166 (95% CI 2116-2216) live births in the cohort, respectively. Th e greatest contribution to this reduction was from older mothers. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated that the discontinuation of fertility treatment for even 1 month in the USA could result in 369 fewer women having a live birth, due to the increase in patients' age during the shutdown. As a result of reductions in cumulative live birth rate, more cycles may be required to overcome infertility at individual and population levels.

Live birth rates and perinatal outcomes when all embryos are frozen compared with conventional fresh and frozen embryo transfer: a cohort study of 337,148 in vitro fertilisation cycles.

BACKGROUND: It is not known whether segmentation of an in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycle, with freezing of all embryos prior to transfer, increases the chance of a live birth after all embryos are transferred. METHODS: In a prospective study of UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority data, we investigated the impact of segmentation, compared with initial fresh embryo followed by frozen embryo transfers, on live birth rate and perinatal outcomes. We used generalised linear models to assess the effect of segmentation in the whole cohort, with additional analyses within women who had experienced both segmentation and non-segmentation. We compared rates of live birth, low birthweight (LBW < 2.5 kg), preterm birth (< 37 weeks), macrosomia (> 4 kg), small for gestational age (SGA < 10th centile), and large for gestational age (LGA > 90th centile) for a given ovarian stimulation cycle accounting for all embryo transfers. RESULTS: We assessed 202,968 women undergoing 337,148 ovarian stimulation cycles and 399,896 embryo transfer procedures. Live birth rates were similar in unadjusted analyses for segmented and non-segmented cycles (rate ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) but lower in segmented cycles when adjusted for age, cycle number, cause of infertility, and ovarian response (rate ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.78-0.83). Segmented cycles were associated with increased risk of macrosomia (adjusted risk ratio 1.72, 95% CI 1.55-1.92) and LGA (1.51, 1.38-1.66) but lower risk of LBW (0.71, 0.65-0.78) and SGA (0.64, 0.56-0.72). With adjustment for blastocyst/cleavage-stage embryo transfer in those with data on this (329,621 cycles), results were not notably changed. Similar results were observed comparing segmented to non-segmented within 3261 women who had both and when analyses were repeated excluding multiple embryo cycles and multiple pregnancies. When analyses were restricted to women with a single embryo transfer, the transfer of a frozen-thawed embryo in a segmented cycles was no longer associated with a lower risk of LBW (0.97, 0.71-1.33) or SGA (0.84, 0.61-1.15), but the risk of macrosomia (1.74, 1.39-2.20) and LGA (1.49, 1.20-1.86) persisted. When the analyses for perinatal outcomes were further restricted to solely frozen embryo transfers, there was no strong statistical evidence for associations. CONCLUSIONS: Widespread application of segmentation and freezing of all embryos to unselected patient populations may be associated with lower cumulative live birth rates and should be restricted to those with a clinical indication.

What life course theoretical models best explain the relationship between exposure to childhood adversity and psychopathology symptoms: recency, accumulation, or sensitive periods?

BACKGROUND: Although childhood adversity is a potent determinant of psychopathology, relatively little is known about how the characteristics of adversity exposure, including its developmental timing or duration, influence subsequent mental health outcomes. This study compared three models from life course theory (recency, accumulation, sensitive period) to determine which one(s) best explained this relationship. METHODS: Prospective data came from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 7476). Four adversities commonly linked to psychopathology (caregiver physical/emotional abuse; sexual/physical abuse; financial stress; parent legal problems) were measured repeatedly from birth to age 8. Using a statistical modeling approach grounded in least angle regression, we determined the theoretical model(s) explaining the most variability (r2) in psychopathology symptoms measured at age 8 using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire and evaluated the magnitude of each association. RESULTS: Recency was the best fitting theoretical model for the effect of physical/sexual abuse (girls r2 = 2.35%; boys r2 = 1.68%). Both recency (girls r2 = 1.55%) and accumulation (boys r2 = 1.71%) were the best fitting models for caregiver physical/emotional abuse. Sensitive period models were chosen alone (parent legal problems in boys r2 = 0.29%) and with accumulation (financial stress in girls r2 = 3.08%) more rarely. Substantial effect sizes were observed (standardized mean differences = 0.22-1.18). CONCLUSIONS: Child psychopathology symptoms are primarily explained by recency and accumulation models. Evidence for sensitive periods did not emerge strongly in these data. These findings underscore the need to measure the characteristics of adversity, which can aid in understanding disease mechanisms and determining how best to reduce the consequences of exposure to adversity.

Exposure to childhood adversity and deficits in emotion recognition: results from a large, population-based sample.

BACKGROUND: Emotion recognition skills are essential for social communication. Deficits in these skills have been implicated in mental disorders. Prior studies of clinical and high-risk samples have consistently shown that children exposed to adversity are more likely than their unexposed peers to have emotion recognition skills deficits. However, only one population-based study has examined this association. METHODS: We analyzed data from children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective birth cohort (n = 6,506). We examined the association between eight adversities, assessed repeatedly from birth to age 8 (caregiver physical or emotional abuse; sexual or physical abuse; maternal psychopathology; one adult in the household; family instability; financial stress; parent legal problems; neighborhood disadvantage) and the ability to recognize facial displays of emotion measured using the faces subtest of the Diagnostic Assessment of Non-Verbal Accuracy (DANVA) at age 8.5 years. In addition to examining the role of exposure (vs. nonexposure) to each type of adversity, we also evaluated the role of the timing, duration, and recency of each adversity using a Least Angle Regression variable selection procedure. RESULTS: Over three-quarters of the sample experienced at least one adversity. We found no evidence to support an association between emotion recognition deficits and previous exposure to adversity, either in terms of total lifetime exposure, timing, duration, or recency, or when stratifying by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Results from the largest population-based sample suggest that even extreme forms of adversity are unrelated to emotion recognition deficits as measured by the DANVA, suggesting the possible immutability of emotion recognition in the general population. These findings emphasize the importance of population-based studies to generate generalizable results.

Maternal dietary patterns during pregnancy and intelligence quotients in the offspring at 8 years of age: Findings from the ALSPAC cohort.

Dietary intake during pregnancy may influence child neurodevelopment and cognitive function. This study aims to investigate the associations between dietary patterns obtained in pregnancy and intelligence quotients (IQ) among offspring at 8 years of age. Pregnant women enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children completed a food frequency questionnaire at 32 weeks' gestation (n = 12,195). Dietary patterns were obtained by cluster analysis. Three clusters best described women's diets during pregnancy: "fruit and vegetables," "meat and potatoes," and "white bread and coffee." The offspring's IQ at 8 years of age was assessed using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children. Models, using variables correlated to IQ data, were performed to impute missing values. Linear regression models were employed to investigate associations between the maternal clusters and IQ in childhood. Children of women who were classified in the meat and potatoes cluster and white bread and coffee cluster during pregnancy had lower average verbal (ß = -1.74; p < .001 and ß = -3.05; p < .001), performance (ß = -1.26; p = .011 and ß = -1.75; p < .001), and full-scale IQ (ß = -1.74; p < .001 and ß = -2.79; p < .001) at 8 years of age when compared to children of mothers in the fruit and vegetables cluster in imputed models of IQ and all confounders, after adjustment for a wide range of known confounders including maternal education. The pregnant women who were classified in the fruit and vegetables cluster had offspring with higher average IQ compared with offspring of mothers in the meat and potatoes cluster and white bread and coffee cluster.

Prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and offspring DNA methylation across the lifecourse: findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC).

Maternal smoking during pregnancy has been found to influence newborn DNA methylation in genes involved in fundamental developmental processes. It is pertinent to understand the degree to which the offspring methylome is sensitive to the intensity and duration of prenatal smoking. An investigation of the persistence of offspring methylation associated with maternal smoking and the relative roles of the intrauterine and postnatal environment is also warranted. In the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we investigated associations between prenatal exposure to maternal smoking and offspring DNA methylation at multiple time points in approximately 800 mother-offspring pairs. In cord blood, methylation at 15 CpG sites in seven gene regions (AHRR, MYO1G, GFI1, CYP1A1, CNTNAP2, KLF13 and ATP9A) was associated with maternal smoking, and a dose-dependent response was observed in relation to smoking duration and intensity. Longitudinal analysis of blood DNA methylation in serial samples at birth, age 7 and 17 years demonstrated that some CpG sites showed reversibility of methylation (GFI1, KLF13 and ATP9A), whereas others showed persistently perturbed patterns (AHRR, MYO1G, CYP1A1 and CNTNAP2). Of those showing persistence, we explored the effect of postnatal smoke exposure and found that the major contribution to altered methylation was attributed to a critical window of in utero exposure. A comparison of paternal and maternal smoking and offspring methylation showed consistently stronger maternal associations, providing further evidence for causal intrauterine mechanisms. These findings emphasize the sensitivity of the methylome to maternal smoking during early development and the long-term impact of such exposure.

Dietary patterns by cluster analysis in pregnant women: relationship with nutrient intakes and dietary patterns in 7-year-old offspring.

Little is known about how dietary patterns of mothers and their children track over time. The objectives of this study are to obtain dietary patterns in pregnancy using cluster analysis, to examine women's mean nutrient intakes in each cluster and to compare the dietary patterns of mothers to those of their children. Pregnant women (n = 12 195) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children reported their frequency of consumption of 47 foods and food groups. These data were used to obtain dietary patterns during pregnancy by cluster analysis. The absolute and energy-adjusted nutrient intakes were compared between clusters. Women's dietary patterns were compared with previously derived clusters of their children at 7 years of age. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships comparing maternal and offspring clusters. Three maternal clusters were identified: 'fruit and vegetables', 'meat and potatoes' and 'white bread and coffee'. After energy adjustment women in the 'fruit and vegetables' cluster had the highest mean nutrient intakes. Mothers in the 'fruit and vegetables' cluster were more likely than mothers in 'meat and potatoes' (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.00; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.69-2.36) or 'white bread and coffee' (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.87-2.53) clusters to have children in a 'plant-based' cluster. However the majority of children were in clusters unrelated to their mother dietary pattern. Three distinct dietary patterns were obtained in pregnancy; the 'fruit and vegetables' pattern being the most nutrient dense. Mothers' dietary patterns were associated with but did not dominate offspring dietary patterns.

Model Selection of the Effect of Binary Exposures over the Life Course.

Epidemiologists are often interested in examining the effect on a later-life outcome of an exposure measured repeatedly over the life course. When different hypotheses for this effect are proposed by competing theories, it is important to identify those most supported by observed data as a first step toward estimating causal associations. One method is to compare goodness-of-fit of hypothesized models with a saturated model, but it is unclear how to judge the "best" out of two hypothesized models that both pass criteria for a good fit. We developed a new method using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to identify which of a small set of hypothesized models explains most of the observed outcome variation. We analyzed a cohort study with repeated measures of socioeconomic position (exposure) through childhood, early- and mid-adulthood, and body mass index (outcome) measured in mid-adulthood. We confirmed previous findings regarding support or lack of support for the following hypotheses: accumulation (number of times exposed), three critical periods (only exposure in childhood, early- or mid-adulthood), and social mobility (transition from low to high socioeconomic position). Simulations showed that our least absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach identified the most suitable hypothesized model with high probability in moderately sized samples, but with lower probability for hypotheses involving change in exposure or highly correlated exposures. Identifying a single, simple hypothesis that represents the specified knowledge of the life course association allows more precise definition of the causal effect of interest.

Live-Birth Rate Associated With Repeat In Vitro Fertilization Treatment Cycles.

IMPORTANCE: The likelihood of achieving a live birth with repeat in vitro fertilization (IVF) is unclear, yet treatment is commonly limited to 3 or 4 embryo transfers. OBJECTIVE: To determine the live-birth rate per initiated ovarian stimulation IVF cycle and with repeated cycles. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective study of 156,947 UK women who received 257,398 IVF ovarian stimulation cycles between 2003 and 2010 and were followed up until June 2012. EXPOSURES: In vitro fertilization, with a cycle defined as an episode of ovarian stimulation and all subsequent separate fresh and frozen embryo transfers. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Live-birth rate per IVF cycle and the cumulative live-birth rates across all cycles in all women and by age and treatment type. Optimal, prognosis-adjusted, and conservative cumulative live-birth rates were estimated, reflecting 0%, 30%, and 100%, respectively, of women who discontinued due to poor prognosis and having a live-birth rate of 0 had they continued. RESULTS: Among the 156,947 women, the median age at start of treatment was 35 years (interquartile range, 32-38; range, 18-55), and the median duration of infertility for all 257,398 cycles was 4 years (interquartile range, 2-6; range, <1-29). In all women, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 29.5% (95% CI, 29.3%-29.7%). This remained above 20% up to and including the fourth cycle. The cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate across all cycles continued to increase up to the ninth cycle, with 65.3% (95% CI, 64.8%-65.8%) of women achieving a live birth by the sixth cycle. In women younger than 40 years using their own oocytes, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 32.3% (95% CI, 32.0%-32.5%) and remained above 20% up to and including the fourth cycle. Six cycles achieved a cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate of 68.4% (95% CI, 67.8%-68.9%). For women aged 40 to 42 years, the live-birth rate for the first cycle was 12.3% (95% CI, 11.8%-12.8%), with 6 cycles achieving a cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate of 31.5% (95% CI, 29.7%-33.3%). For women older than 42 years, all rates within each cycle were less than 4%. No age differential was observed among women using donor oocytes. Rates were lower for women with untreated male partner-related infertility compared with those with any other cause, but treatment with either intracytoplasmic sperm injection or sperm donation removed this difference. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among women in the United Kingdom undergoing IVF, the cumulative prognosis-adjusted live-birth rate after 6 cycles was 65.3%, with variations by age and treatment type. These findings support the efficacy of extending the number of IVF cycles beyond 3 or 4.

Dietary patterns in UK adolescents obtained from a dual-source FFQ and their associations with socio-economic position, nutrient intake and modes of eating.

OBJECTIVE: To derive dietary patterns using principal components analysis from separate FFQ completed by mothers and their teenagers and to assess associations with nutrient intakes and sociodemographic variables. DESIGN: Two distinct FFQ were completed by 13-year-olds and their mothers, with some overlap in the foods covered. A combined data set was obtained. SETTING: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), Bristol, UK. SUBJECTS: Teenagers (n 5334) with adequate dietary data. RESULTS: Four patterns were obtained using principal components analysis: a 'Traditional/health-conscious' pattern, a 'Processed' pattern, a 'Snacks/sugared drinks' pattern and a 'Vegetarian' pattern. The 'Traditional/health-conscious' pattern was the most nutrient-rich, having high positive correlations with many nutrients. The 'Processed' and 'Snacks/sugared drinks' patterns showed little association with important nutrients but were positively associated with energy, fats and sugars. There were clear gender and sociodemographic differences across the patterns. Lower scores were seen on the 'Traditional/health conscious' and 'Vegetarian' patterns in males and in those with younger and less educated mothers. Higher scores were seen on the 'Traditional/health-conscious' and 'Vegetarian' patterns in girls and in those whose mothers had higher levels of education. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to establish healthy eating patterns by the teenage years. However, this is a time when it is difficult to accurately establish dietary intake from a single source, since teenagers consume increasing amounts of foods outside the home. Further dietary pattern studies should focus on teenagers and the source of dietary data collection merits consideration.

Maximizing Insights from Longitudinal Epigenetic Age Data: Simulations, Applications, and Practical Guidance.

Background Epigenetic Age (EA) is an age estimate, developed using DNA methylation (DNAm) states of selected CpG sites across the genome. Although EA and chronological age are highly correlated, EA may not increase uniformly with time. Departures, known as epigenetic age acceleration (EAA), are common and have been linked to various traits and future disease risk. Limited by available data, most studies investigating these relationships have been cross-sectional - using a single EA measurement. However, the recent growth in longitudinal DNAm studies has led to analyses of associations with EA over time. These studies differ in (i) their choice of model; (ii) the primary outcome (EA vs. EAA); and (iii) in their use of chronological age or age-independent time variables to account for the temporal dynamic. We evaluated the robustness of each approach using simulations and tested our results in two real-world examples, using biological sex and birthweight as predictors of longitudinal EA. Results Our simulations showed most accurate effect sizes in a linear mixed model or generalized estimating equation, using chronological age as the time variable. The use of EA versus EAA as an outcome did not strongly impact estimates. Applying the optimal model in real-world data uncovered an accelerated EA rate in males and an advanced EA that decelerates over time in children with higher birthweight. Conclusion Our results can serve as a guide for forthcoming longitudinal EA studies, aiding in methodological decisions that may determine whether an association is accurately estimated, overestimated, or potentially overlooked.