Spring temperatures influence selection on breeding date and the potential for phenological mismatch in a migratory bird.

Climate change has affected the seasonal phenology of a variety of taxa, including that of migratory birds and their critical food resources. However, whether climate-induced changes in breeding phenology affect individual fitness, and how these changes might therefore influence selection on breeding date remain unresolved. Here, we use a 36-yr dataset from a long-term, individual-based study of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon) to test whether the timing of avian breeding seasons is associated with annual changes in temperature, which have increased to a small but significant extent locally since the onset of the study in 1980. Increasing temperature was associated with an advancement of breeding date in the population, as the onset of breeding within years was closely associated with daily spring temperatures. Warmer springs were also associated with a reduced incubation period, but reduced incubation periods were associated with a prolonged duration of nestling provisioning. Nest productivity, in terms of fledgling production, was not associated with temperature, but wetter springs reduced fledging success. Most years were characterized by selection for earlier breeding, but cool and wet years resulted in stabilizing selection on breeding date. Our results indicate that climate change and increasing spring temperatures can affect suites of life-history traits, including selection on breeding date. Increasing temperatures may favor earlier breeding, but the extent to which the phenology of populations might advance may be constrained by reductions in fitness associated with early breeding during cool, wet years. Variability in climatic conditions will, therefore, shape the extent to which seasonal organisms can respond to changes in their environment.

Extra-pair young in house wren broods are more likely to be male than female.

Sex-allocation theory predicts that females should preferentially produce offspring of the sex with greater fitness potential. In socially monogamous animal species, extra-pair mating often increases the variance in fitness of sons relative to daughters. Thus, in situations where offspring sired by a female's extra-pair mate(s) will typically have greater fitness potential than offspring sired by the within-pair mate, sex-allocation theory predicts that females will bias the sex of offspring sired by extra-pair mates towards male. We examined the relationship between offspring sex and paternity over six breeding seasons in an Illinois population of the house wren (Troglodytes aedon), a cavity-nesting songbird. Out of the 2345 nestlings that had both sex and paternity assigned, 350 (15%) were sired by extra-pair males. The sex ratio of extra-pair offspring, 0.534, was significantly greater than the sex ratio of within-pair offspring, 0.492, representing an increase of 8.5 per cent in the proportion of sons produced. To our knowledge, this is the first confirmed report of female birds increasing their production of sons in association with extra-pair fertilization. Our results are consistent with the oft-mentioned hypothesis that females engage in extra-pair mating to increase offspring quality.