[New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation following coronary artery bypass grafting: Incidence, clinical course and short-term outcomes].

INTRODUCTION: The aims of this retrospective study were to investigate the incidence, clinical course and short term outcomes of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) following coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A nation-wide study on 1622 patients who underwent CABG from 2006-2020 at Landspitali University Hospital. Clinical data were extracted from registries and 121 patients with pre-existing AF excluded, leaving 1501 patients for further analysis. Patient charts and postoperative ECGs were manually reviewed for determining details of POAF, which was defined as a postoperative episode of AF before discharge lasting at least 5 minutes. Patients with POAF (n=483) were compared to non-POAF patients (n=1018). RESULTS: Altogether 483 (32.2%) patients developed POAF; the annual incidence decreasing over time (tau= -0,45, p=0.023). Most patients were diagnosed on the second day postoperatively (43.5%) and over 90% were diagnosed within 4 days. The median number of POAF episodes was 3 (IQR: 1-5), the first episode lasting 1-6 hours in half of the cases and the total POAF-duration being 12 hours median (IQR: 5-30). Over 94% of cases converted to sinus rythm before discharge, with 25 (5.3%) patients being discharged in AF. Most patients were treated with beta-blockers (98.8%), amiodarone (95%) and 14.9% with electric cardioversion. POAF-patients were older, had higher EuroSCORE II and a longer hospital stay, however, they had similar rates of early postoperative stroke and 30 day mortality. CONCLUSION: The incidence of POAF remains high and was associated with prolonged hospital stay, but not significantly higher 30 day mortality or early postoperative stroke compared to patients in sinus rhythm. POAF-episodes were predominantly transient and almost 95% of patients were discharged in sinus rythm.

Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting.

Importance: New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in approximately 30% of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). It is unknown whether early recurrence is associated with worse outcomes. Objective: To test the hypothesis that early AF recurrence in patients with POAF after CABG is associated with worse outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This Swedish nationwide cohort study used prospectively collected data from the SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies) registry and 3 other mandatory national registries. The study included patients who underwent isolated first-time CABG between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2020, and developed POAF. Data analysis was performed between March 6 and September 16, 2023. Exposure: Early AF recurrence defined as an episode of AF leading to hospital care within 3 months after discharge. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included ischemic stroke, any thromboembolism, heart failure hospitalization, and major bleeding within 2 years after discharge. The groups were compared with multivariable Cox regression models, with early AF recurrence as a time-dependent covariate. The hypothesis tested was formulated after data collection. Results: Of the 35 329 patients identified, 10 609 (30.0%) developed POAF after CABG and were included in this study. Their median age was 71 (IQR, 66-76) years. The median follow-up was 7.1 (IQR, 2.9-9.0) years, and most patients (81.6%) were men. Early AF recurrence occurred in 6.7% of patients. Event rates (95% CIs) per 100 patient-years with vs without early AF recurrence were 2.21 (1.49-3.24) vs 2.03 (1.83-2.25) for all-cause mortality, 3.94 (2.92-5.28) vs 2.79 (2.56-3.05) for heart failure hospitalization, and 3.97 (2.95-5.30) vs 2.74 (2.51-2.99) for major bleeding. No association between early AF recurrence and all-cause mortality was observed (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.17 [95% CI, 0.80-1.74]; P = .41). In exploratory analyses, there was an association with heart failure hospitalization (AHR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.32-2.45]; P = .001) and major bleeding (AHR, 1.92 [1.42-2.61]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of early AF recurrence after POAF in patients who underwent CABG, no association was found between early AF recurrence and all-cause mortality. Exploratory analyses showed associations between AF recurrence and heart failure hospitalization, oral anticoagulation, and major bleeding.

Early ICD implantation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a retrospective cohort study from the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) is generally beneficial in survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). OBJECTIVE: We studied the association between ICD implantation prior to discharge and survival in patients with cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm in OHCA. DESIGN: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in the Swedish Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. Treatment associations were estimated using propensity scores. We used gradient boosting, Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, extreme gradient boosting and logistic regression to generate multiple propensity scores. We selected the model yielding maximum covariate balance to obtain weights, which were used in a Cox regression to calculate HRs for death or recurrent cardiac arrest. PARTICIPANTS: All cases discharged alive during 2010 to 2020 with a cardiac aetiology or initial shockable rhythm were included. A total of 959 individuals were discharged with an ICD, and 2046 were discharged without one. RESULTS: Among those experiencing events, 25% did so within 90 days in the ICD group, compared with 52% in the other group. All HRs favoured ICD implantation. The overall HR (95% CI) for ICD versus no ICD was 0.38 (0.26 to 0.56). The HR was 0.42 (0.28 to 0.63) in cases with initial shockable rhythm; 0.18 (0.06 to 0.58) in non-shockable rhythm; 0.32 (0.20 to 0.53) in cases with a history of coronary artery disease; 0.36 (0.22 to 0.61) in heart failure and 0.30 (0.13 to 0.69) in those with diabetes. Similar associations were noted in all subgroups. CONCLUSION: Among survivors of OHCA, those discharged with an ICD had approximately 60% lower risk of death or recurrent cardiac arrest. A randomised trial is warranted to study this further.

Prediction of survival in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: the updated Swedish cardiac arrest risk score (SCARS) model.

Aims: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major health concern worldwide. Although one-third of all patients achieve a return of spontaneous circulation and may undergo a difficult period in the intensive care unit, only 1 in 10 survive. This study aims to improve our previously developed machine learning model for early prognostication of survival in OHCA. Methods and results: We studied all cases registered in the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Registry during 2010 and 2020 (n = 55 615). We compared the predictive performance of extreme gradient boosting (XGB), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), logistic regression, CatBoost, random forest, and TabNet. For each framework, we developed models that optimized (i) a weighted F1 score to penalize models that yielded more false negatives and (ii) a precision-recall area under the curve (PR AUC). LightGBM assigned higher importance values to a larger set of variables, while XGB made predictions using fewer predictors. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic (AUC ROC) scores for LightGBM were 0.958 (optimized for weighted F1) and 0.961 (optimized for a PR AUC), while for XGB, the scores were 0.958 and 0.960, respectively. The calibration plots showed a subtle underestimation of survival for LightGBM, contrasting with a mild overestimation for XGB models. In the crucial range of 0-10% likelihood of survival, the XGB model, optimized with the PR AUC, emerged as a clinically safe model. Conclusion: We improved our previous prediction model by creating a parsimonious model with an AUC ROC at 0.96, with excellent calibration and no apparent risk of underestimating survival in the critical probability range (0-10%). The model is available at www.gocares.se.

Pacemaker implantation following tricuspid valve annuloplasty.

Objective: Tricuspid annuloplasty is associated with increased risk of atrioventricular block and subsequent implantation of a permanent pacemaker. However, the exact incidence of permanent pacemaker, associated risk factors, and outcomes in this frame remain debated. The aim of the study was to report permanent pacemaker incidence, risk factors, and outcomes after tricuspid annuloplasty from nationwide databases. Methods: By using data from multiple Swedish mandatory national registries, all patients (n = 1502) who underwent tricuspid annuloplasty in Sweden from 2006 to 2020 were identified. Patients who needed permanent pacemaker within 30 days from surgery were compared with those who did not. The cumulative incidence of permanent pacemaker implantation was estimated. A multivariable logistic regression model was fit to identify risk factors of 30-day permanent pacemaker implantation. The association between permanent pacemaker implantation and long-term survival was evaluated with multivariable Cox regression. Results: The 30-day permanent pacemaker rate was 14.2% (214/1502). Patients with permanent pacemakers were older (69.8 ± 10.3 years vs 67.5 ± 12.4 years, P = .012). Independent risk factors of permanent pacemaker implantation were concomitant mitral valve surgery (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.34-3.27), ablation surgery (odds ratio, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.12-2.23), and surgery performed in a low-volume center (odds ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.17-2.83). Permanent pacemaker implantation was not associated with increased long-term mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.53-1.03). Conclusions: This nationwide study demonstrated a high risk of permanent pacemaker implantation within 30 days of tricuspid annuloplasty. However, patients who needed a permanent pacemaker did not have worse long-term survival, and the cumulative incidence of heart failure and major adverse cardiovascular events was similar to patients who did not receive a permanent pacemaker.