Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito­human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

serosim: An R package for simulating serological data arising from vaccination, epidemiological and antibody kinetics processes.

serosim is an open-source R package designed to aid inference from serological studies, by simulating data arising from user-specified vaccine and antibody kinetics processes using a random effects model. Serological data are used to assess population immunity by directly measuring individuals' antibody titers. They uncover locations and/or populations which are susceptible and provide evidence of past infection or vaccination to help inform public health measures and surveillance. Both serological data and new analytical techniques used to interpret them are increasingly widespread. This creates a need for tools to simulate serological studies and the processes underlying observed titer values, as this will enable researchers to identify best practices for serological study design, and provide a standardized framework to evaluate the performance of different inference methods. serosim allows users to specify and adjust model inputs representing underlying processes responsible for generating the observed titer values like time-varying patterns of infection and vaccination, population demography, immunity and antibody kinetics, and serological sampling design in order to best represent the population and disease system(s) of interest. This package will be useful for planning sampling design of future serological studies, understanding determinants of observed serological data, and validating the accuracy and power of new statistical methods.

Low Prevalence of Interferon α Autoantibodies in People Experiencing Symptoms of Post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Conditions, or Long COVID.

Interferon (IFN)-specific autoantibodies have been implicated in severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and have been proposed as a potential driver of the persistent symptoms characterizing "long COVID," a type of postacute sequelae of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We report that only 2 of 215 participants with convalescent SARS-CoV-2 infection tested over 394 time points, including 121 people experiencing long COVID symptoms, had detectable IFN-α2 antibodies. Both had been hospitalized during the acute phase of the infection. These data suggest that persistent anti-IFN antibodies, although a potential driver of severe COVID-19, are unlikely to contribute to long COVID symptoms in the postacute phase of the infection.

SARS-CoV-2 Serology Across Scales: A Framework for Unbiased Estimation of Cumulative Incidence Incorporating Antibody Kinetics and Epidemic Recency.

Serosurveys are a key resource for measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) population exposure. A growing body of evidence suggests that asymptomatic and mild infections (together making up over 95% of all infections) are associated with lower antibody titers than severe infections. Antibody levels also peak a few weeks after infection and decay gradually. We developed a statistical approach to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from raw seroprevalence survey results that account for these sources of spectrum bias. We incorporate data on antibody responses on multiple assays from a postinfection longitudinal cohort, along with epidemic time series to account for the timing of a serosurvey relative to how recently individuals may have been infected. We applied this method to produce estimates of cumulative incidence from 5 large-scale SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys across different settings and study designs. We identified substantial differences between raw seroprevalence and cumulative incidence of over 2-fold in the results of some surveys, and we provide a tool for practitioners to generate cumulative incidence estimates with preset or custom parameter values. While unprecedented efforts have been launched to generate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates over this past year, interpretation of results from these studies requires properly accounting for both population-level epidemiologic context and individual-level immune dynamics.

The breadth of the neutralizing antibody response to original SARS-CoV-2 infection is linked to the presence of Long COVID symptoms.

The associations between longitudinal dynamics and the breadth of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody (nAb) response with various Long COVID phenotypes before vaccination are not known. The capacity of antibodies to cross-neutralize a variety of viral variants may be associated with ongoing pathology and persistent symptoms. We measured longitudinal neutralizing and cross-neutralizing antibody responses to pre- and post-SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants in participants infected early in the COVID-19 pandemic, before widespread rollout of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Cross-sectional regression models adjusted for clinical covariates and longitudinal mixed-effects models were used to determine the impact of the breadth and rate of decay of neutralizing responses on the development of Long COVID symptoms, as well as Long COVID phenotypes. We identified several novel relationships between SARS-CoV-2 antibody neutralization and the presence of Long COVID symptoms. Specifically, we show that, although nAb responses to the original, infecting strain of SARS-CoV-2 were not associated with Long COVID in cross-sectional analyses, cross-neutralization ID50 levels to the Omicron BA.5 variant approximately 4 months following acute infection was independently and significantly associated with greater odds of Long COVID and with persistent gastrointestinal and neurological symptoms. Longitudinal modeling demonstrated significant associations in the overall levels and rates of decay of neutralization capacity with Long COVID phenotypes. A higher proportion of participants had antibodies capable of neutralizing Omicron BA.5 compared with BA.1 or XBB.1.5 variants. Our findings suggest that relationships between various immune responses and Long COVID are likely complex but may involve the breadth of antibody neutralization responses.

The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers.

Nonpolio enteroviruses are diverse and common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can result in a wide range of neurological and other diseases. Many serotypes circulate every year, and different serotypes predominate in different years, but the drivers of their geographical and temporal dynamics are not understood. We use national enterovirus surveillance data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1983-2013, as well as demographic and climatic data for the same period, to study the patterns and drivers of the seasonality of these infections. We find that the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases is spatially structured in the United States and similar to that observed for historical prevaccination poliomyelitis (1931-1954). We identify latitudinal gradients for the amplitude and the timing of the peak of cases, meaning that those are more regularly distributed all year-round in the south and have a more pronounced peak that arrives later toward the north. The peak is estimated to occur between July and September across the United States, and 1 month earlier than that for historical poliomyelitis. Using mixed-effects models, we find that climate, but not demography, is likely to drive the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases and that the dew point temperature alone explains ∼30% of the variation in the intensity of transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of enteroviruses, demonstrates important similarities in their circulation dynamics with polioviruses, and identifies potential drivers of their seasonality.

Are Seroprevalence Estimates for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Biased?

Biased seroprevalence estimates can occur using serological assays optimized with validation sets unrepresentative of disease spectrum in the general population. Correct interpretation of serosurveys for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 requires quantifying variations in sensitivity with disease severity and over time.

Seroepidemiologic Study Designs for Determining SARS-COV-2 Transmission and Immunity.

Serologic studies are crucial for clarifying dynamics of the coronavirus disease pandemic. Past work on serologic studies (e.g., during influenza pandemics) has made relevant contributions, but specific conditions of the current situation require adaptation. Although detection of antibodies to measure exposure, immunity, or both seems straightforward conceptually, numerous challenges exist in terms of sample collection, what the presence of antibodies actually means, and appropriate analysis and interpretation to account for test accuracy and sampling biases. Successful deployment of serologic studies depends on type and performance of serologic tests, population studied, use of adequate study designs, and appropriate analysis and interpretation of data. We highlight key questions that serologic studies can help answer at different times, review strengths and limitations of different assay types and study designs, and discuss methods for rapid sharing and analysis of serologic data to determine global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Characterization of urinary exosomal release of aquaporin-1 and -2 after renal ischemia-reperfusion in rats.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important risk factor for the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD), and an alteration in renal water handling has been observed during the transition of AKI to CKD. Urinary exosomal release of aquaporin-1 (AQP1) and AQP2, important proteins for renal water handling, has recently been reported to predict their levels of renal expression. Therefore, we examined the patterns of urinary exosomal release of AQP1 and AQP2, and the exosomal marker proteins tumor susceptibility 101 protein (TSG101) and ALG-2 interacting protein X (Alix), in the acute and chronic phases following induction of AKI by renal bilateral ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) in rats. Blood tests and histological examinations indicated that AKI occurred before at 7 days after renal I/R ( day 7) and that renal fibrosis developed progressively thereafter. Immunoblotting demonstrated significant decreases in the urinary exosomal release of AQP1 and AQP2 during severe AKI. Urinary exosomal release of Alix and TSG101 was significantly increased on day 7. These data were also confirmed in rats with unilateral renal I/R causing more serious AKI. Urinary exosomal release of either the Ser-256- or Ser-269-phosphorylated form of AQP2, both of which are involved in apical trafficking of AQP2, was positively correlated with that of total AQP2. These results suggest that urinary exosomal release of AQP1 and AQP2 is reduced in I/R-induced AKI, whereas that of Alix and TSG101 is increased in the initial phase of renal fibrosis. Furthermore, apical trafficking of AQP2 appears to be related to urinary exosomal release of AQP2.

[Appropriate Range of Lymph Node Dissection in Elderly Patients with Colorectal Cancer].

In elderly patients, surgical procesure is decided considering the general condition and surgical invasion. The aim of this study was to clarify the appropriate rage of lymph node dissection for elderly colorectal cancer patients. One hundred forty one colorectal cancer patients aged 75 years or more, who underwent R0 colorectal resection with D2 or D3 lymph node dissection in clinical T3/T4 or clinical N+, were enrolled in this study. The patients whose tumor located in the rectum below the peritoneal reflection(Rb)were excluded. Five-year overall survival(OS)rate and disease specific survival(DSS)rate were 79.1% and 89.4%, respectively. More than 2 preoperative co-morbidities and macroscopic type 3-5 were independent prognostic factors in OS, whereas the rage of lymph node dissection was not risk factor. When comparing the outcomes of D2 and D3 dissections by age, D3 dissection was better tendency in DSS in patients aged under 80, however, D2 dissection was better tendency in patients aged 80 or more. In elderly colorectal cancer patients, there was no difference in prognosis between D2 and D3 dissection, and especially in patients aged 80 years or more, D2 might be sufficient if R0 resection was possible.

Correction: Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001975.].

Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: China accounted for 87% (9.8 million/11.3 million) of all hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases reported to WHO during 2010-2014. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is responsible for most of the severe HFMD cases. Three EV71 vaccines recently demonstrated good efficacy in children aged 6-71 mo. Here we assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine pediatric EV71 vaccination in China. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We characterized the economic and health burden of EV71-associated HFMD (EV71-HFMD) in China using (i) the national surveillance database, (ii) virological surveillance records from all provinces, and (iii) a caregiver survey on the household costs and health utility loss for 1,787 laboratory-confirmed pediatric cases. Using a static model parameterized with these data, we estimated the effective vaccine cost (EVC, defined as cost/efficacy or simply the cost of a 100% efficacious vaccine) below which routine pediatric vaccination would be considered cost-effective. We performed the base-case analysis from the societal perspective with a willingness-to-pay threshold of one times the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) and an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed uncertainty analysis by (i) accounting for the uncertainty in the risk of EV71-HFMD due to missing laboratory data in the national database, (ii) excluding productivity loss of parents and caregivers, (iii) increasing the willingness-to-pay threshold to three times GDPpc, (iv) increasing the discount rate to 6%, and (v) accounting for the proportion of EV71-HFMD cases not registered by national surveillance. In each of these scenarios, we performed probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for parametric uncertainty in our estimates of the risk of EV71-HFMD and the expected costs and health utility loss due to EV71-HFMD. Routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be cost-saving if the all-inclusive EVC is below US$10.6 (95% CI US$9.7-US$11.5) and would remain cost-effective if EVC is below US$17.9 (95% CI US$16.9-US$18.8) in the base case, but these ceilings could be up to 66% higher if all the test-negative cases with missing laboratory data are EV71-HFMD. The EVC ceiling is (i) 10%-14% lower if productivity loss of parents/caregivers is excluded, (ii) 58%-84% higher if the willingness-to-pay threshold is increased to three times GDPpc, (iii) 14%-19% lower if the discount rate is increased to 6%, and (iv) 36% (95% CI 23%-50%) higher if the proportion of EV71-HFMD registered by national surveillance is the same as that observed in the three EV71 vaccine phase III trials. The validity of our results relies on the following assumptions: (i) self-reported hospital charges are a good proxy for the opportunity cost of care, (ii) the cost and health utility loss estimates based on laboratory-confirmed EV71-HFMD cases are representative of all EV71-HFMD cases, and (iii) the long-term average risk of EV71-HFMD in the future is similar to that registered by national surveillance during 2010-2013. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to no vaccination, routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be very cost-effective in China if the cost of immunization (including all logistical, procurement, and administration costs needed to confer 5 y of vaccine protection) is below US$12.0-US$18.3, depending on the choice of vaccine among the three candidates. Given that the annual number of births in China has been around 16 million in recent years, the annual costs for routine pediatric EV71 vaccination at this cost range should not exceed US$192-US$293 million. Our results can be used to determine the optimal vaccine when the prices of the three vaccines are known.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.

Gene ablation of carnitine/organic cation transporter 1 reduces gastrointestinal absorption of 5-aminosalicylate in mice.

5-Aminosalicylic acid (5-ASA) is an orally administered therapeutic agent for inflammatory bowel diseases, such as ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease. We hypothesized that the absorption of 5-ASA is mediated by the polyspecific carnitine/organic cation transporter (OCTN1/SLC22A4), based on the similarity of chemical structure between 5-ASA and other OCTN1 substrates. Therefore, we examined the involvement of this transporter in the disposition of 5-ASA in vivo by using octn1 gene knockout (octn1(-/-)) mice. After oral administration of 5-ASA, the plasma concentrations of 5-ASA and its primary metabolite, N-acetyl-5-aminosalicylate (Ac-5-ASA), in octn1(-/-) mice were much lower than those in wild-type mice. The time required to reach maximum plasma concentration was also delayed in octn1(-/-) mice. On the other hand, the plasma concentration profiles of both 5-ASA and Ac-5-ASA after intravenous administration of 5-ASA (bolus or infusion) were similar in the two strains. Uptake of 5-ASA from the apical to the basal side of isolated small-intestinal tissues of octn1(-/-) mice, determined in an Ussing-type chamber, was lower than that in wild-type mice. Further, uptake of 5-ASA in HEK293 cells stably transfected with the OCTN1 gene, assessed as the sum of cell-associated 5-ASA and Ac-5-ASA, was higher than that in HEK293 cells transfected with the vector alone. Overall, these results indicate that OCTN1 is involved, at least in part, in the gastrointestinal absorption of 5-ASA.

Urinary excretion pattern of exosomal aquaporin-2 in rats that received gentamicin.

Urinary exosomes are nano-sized vesicles secreted into urine from all types of renal epithelial cells and are known to contain possible biomarker proteins for renal diseases. Gentamicin has been reported to decrease the level of renal aquaporin (AQP)2, which is known to be mainly expressed in renal collecting ducts and excreted into the urine via exosomes. In the present study, we investigated whether urinary exosomal AQP2 could serve as a potential biomarker for gentamicin-induced nephrotoxicity, especially collecting duct cell dysfunction. Gentamicin was given to rats intraperitoneally once every day starting on day 0. Gentamicin significantly increased the plasma creatinine concentration from day 5 and beyond. Also, gentamicin induced polyuria and a defective urine concentration mechanism on day 7, suggesting gentamicin-induced collecting duct cell dysfunction. Immunoblot analysis showed that gentamicin significantly increased urinary exosomal AQP2 excretion on day 1 but decreased it on day 7 compared with the control group. Similarly, increased excretion of exosomal tumor susceptibility gene 101 protein, frequently used as an exosome marker protein, was observed on day 1. However, gentamicin did not significantly affect the urinary excretion of exosomal tumor susceptibility gene 101 on day 7. Gentamicin slightly decreased renal AQP2 expression on day 2 and markedly decreased it on day 8. These data strongly suggest that the use of urinary exosomal AQP2 as a biomarker may allow detection of gentamicin-induced collecting duct cell dysfunction. Furthermore, urinary exosomal AQP2 might also be useful for the early detection of gentamicin-induced renal injury in addition to collecting duct injury.

Excretion of urinary exosomal AQP2 in rats is regulated by vasopressin and urinary pH.

Urinary exosomes are small vesicles secreted into urine from all renal epithelial cell types and known to contain proteins that are involved in renal secretion and reabsorption. Among these proteins, urinary exosomal aquaporin-2 (AQP2) has been suggested to be useful for diagnosis of renal disease. However, the mechanisms underlying the excretion of urinary exosomal AQP2 are largely unknown. In this study, we examined the mechanisms of urinary exosomal AQP2 excretion in vivo, using diuretics including furosemide (FS), an inhibitor of the sodium-potassium-chloride symporter; acetazolamide (ACTZ), an inhibitor of carbonic anhydrase; OPC-31260 (OPC), a vasopressin type 2 receptor antagonist; and NaHCO3, a urinary alkalizing agent. Samples of urine from rats were collected for 2 h just after treatment with each diuretic, and urinary exosomes were isolated by ultracentrifugation. Urinary exosomal AQP2 excretion was dramatically increased by treatment with FS accompanied by urine acidification or with ACTZ accompanied by urine alkalization. Immunohistochemistry showed that apical localization of AQP2 was clearly evident and the plasma vasopressin level was increased after each treatment. Although treatment with OPC alone had no significant effect, coadministration of OPC completely inhibited the FS-induced and partially reduced the ACTZ-induced responses, respectively. Treatment with NaHCO3 increased the excretion of urinary exosomal AQP2 accompanied by urine alkalization. This increased response was partially inhibited by coadministration of OPC. These data suggest that an increased plasma level of vasopressin promoted the excretion of urinary exosomal AQP2 and that urine alkalinization also increased it independently of vasopressin.

Aquaporin 11 insufficiency modulates kidney susceptibility to oxidative stress.

Aquaporin 11 (AQP11) is a newly described member of the protein family of transport channels. AQP11 associates with the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and is highly expressed in proximal tubular epithelial cells in the kidney. Previously, we identified and characterized a recessive mutation of the highly conserved Cys227 to Ser227 in mouse AQP11 that caused proximal tubule (PT) injury and kidney failure in mutant mice. The current study revealed induction of ER stress, unfolded protein response, and apoptosis as molecular mechanisms of this PT injury. Cys227Ser mutation interfered with maintenance of AQP11 oligomeric structure. AQP11 is abundantly expressed in the S1 PT segment, a site of major renal glucose flux, and Aqp11 mutant mice developed PT-specific mitochondrial injury. Glucose increased AQP11 protein expression in wild-type kidney and upregulation of AQP11 expression by glucose in vitro was prevented by phlorizin, an inhibitor of sodium-dependent glucose transport across PT. Total AQP11 levels in heterozygotes were higher than in wild-type mice but were not further increased in response to glucose. In Aqp11 insufficient PT cells, glucose potentiated increases in reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. ROS production was also elevated in Aqp11 mutation carriers. Phenotypically normal mice heterozygous for the Aqp11 mutation repeatedly treated with glucose showed increased blood urea nitrogen levels that were prevented by the antioxidant sulforaphane or by phlorizin. Our results indicate an important role for AQP11 to prevent glucose-induced oxidative stress in proximal tubules.

Population pharmacokinetics of tazobactam/piperacillin in Japanese patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

The population pharmacokinetics on tazobactam/piperacillin (TAZ/PIPC; 1:8, 4.5 g x 3) was analyzed in Japanese patients with community-acquired pneumonia using the Nonlinear Mixed Effect Model version VI. Analysis by the one-compartment model yielded the following results for PIPC: total clearance (CL) = 8.22+(Ccr-71.4) x 0.0561 (L/hr), distribution volume (Vd) = 13.7 (L). The pharmacokinetic parameters for TAZ were: CL = 8.67 + (Ccr-71.4) x 0.0682 (L/hr), Vd = 14.4 (L). Of the pharmacokinetic parameters of PIPC, CL included Ccr as a variation factor, whereas the Vd included no variation factor. Because PIPC is excreted into the urine in the unchanged form, its pharmacokinetic factors seem to reflect the renal function status. In this study of patients with community-acquired pneumonia, the mean Vd per body weight was 0.26 L/kg, and the results suggested an increase of the Vd in patients with community-acquired pneumonia as compared with the value in healthy adults.

Population Pharmacokinetic Model for Unbound Concentrations of Daptomycin in Patients with MRSA Including Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Unbound daptomycin concentrations are responsible for pharmacologically beneficial and adverse effects, although most previous reports have been limited to the use of total concentrations. We developed a population pharmacokinetic model to predict both total and unbound daptomycin concentrations. METHODS: Clinical data were collected from 58 patients with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus including patients undergoing hemodialysis. A total of 339 serum total and 329 unbound daptomycin concentrations were used for model construction. RESULTS: Total and unbound daptomycin concentration was explained by a model that assumed first-order distribution with two compartments, and first-order elimination. Normal fat body mass was identified as covariates. Renal function was incorporated as a linear function of renal clearance and independent non-renal clearance. The unbound fraction was estimated to be 0.066 with a standard albumin of 45 g/L and standard creatinine clearance of 100 mL/min. Simulated unbound daptomycin concentration was compared with minimum inhibitory concentration as a measure of clinical effectiveness and exposure-level-related induction of creatine phosphokinase elevation. The recommended doses were 4 mg/kg for patients with severe renal function [creatinine clearance (CLcr) ≤ 30 mL/min] and 6 mg/kg for patients with mild to moderate renal function (CLcr > 30 and ≤ 60 mL/min). A simulation indicated that dose adjusted by body weight and renal function improved target attainment. CONCLUSIONS: This population pharmacokinetics model for unbound daptomycin could help clinicians to select the appropriate dose regimen for patients undergoing daptomycin treatment and reduce associated adverse effects.

An evaluation of the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine immunization program.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for both populations and healthcare systems are vast. In addition to morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, the pandemic also disrupted local health systems, including reductions or delays in routine vaccination services and catch-up vaccination campaigns. These disruptions could lead to outbreaks of other infectious diseases that result in an additional burden of disease and strain on the healthcare system. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine childhood immunization program in 2020 using multiple sources of data. We relied on administrative vaccination data and Zambia's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to project national disruptions to district-specific routine childhood vaccination coverage within the pandemic year 2020. Next, we leveraged a 2016 population-based serological survey to predict age-specific measles seroprevalence and assessed the impact of changes in vaccination coverage on measles outbreak risk in each district. We found minor disruptions to routine administration of measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. This was in part due to Zambia's Child Health Week held in June of 2020 which helped to reach children missed during the first six months of the year. We estimated that the two-month delay in a measles-rubella vaccination campaign, originally planned for September of 2020 but conducted in November of 2020 as a result of the pandemic, had little impact on modeled district-specific measles outbreak risks. This study estimated minimal increases in the number of children missed by vaccination services in Zambia during 2020. However, the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission since our analysis concluded means efforts to maintain routine immunization services and minimize the risk of measles outbreaks will continue to be critical. The methodological framework developed in this analysis relied on routinely collected data to estimate disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic to national routine vaccination program performance and its impact on children missed at the subnational level can be deployed in other countries or for other vaccines.