Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt.

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Evaluation of chest radiography, lytA real-time PCR, and other routine tests for diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia and estimation of possible attributable fraction of pneumococcus in northern Togo.

Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn) is a leading cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), yet existing diagnostic tools remain inadequate. We aimed to evaluate laboratory and radiological methods for detecting pneumococcal aetiology in CAP patients and to estimate Spn prevalence in this group. All-aged patients hospitalized with clinically defined CAP in northern Togo were enrolled during 2010-2013. Latent class analysis pooled results of semi-automated blood culture (SABC), whole blood lytA real-time polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR), serum C-reactive protein (CRP), and chest radiography (CXR) and categorized patients as likely pneumococcal or non-pneumococcal CAP. We enrolled 1684 patients; 1501 had results for all tests. CXR, SABC, lytA rt-PCR and CRP >71·2 mg/l had sensitivities of 94% [95% confidence interval (CI) 87-100], 13% (95% CI 10-16), 17% (95% CI 14-21) and 78% (95% CI 75-80), and specificities of 88% (95% CI 84-93), 100% (95% CI 99-100), 97% (95% CI 96-99) and 77% (95% CI 75-79), respectively. Pneumococcal attributable proportion was 34% (95% CI 32-37), increasing with age and in men. We estimated that Spn caused one third of CAP. Whole blood lytA rt-PCR was more sensitive than SABC; both had low sensitivity and high specificity. Conversely CXR was highly sensitive and reasonably specific; it could be a useful tool for epidemiological studies aiming to define Spn pneumonia incidence across all ages.

Near-Complete Genome Sequences of Rice Yellow Mottle Virus Isolates from Senegal.

Rice yellow mottle virus in Senegal is reported here for the first time. The near-complete genomic sequences of two isolates (Se1 and Se5) were obtained. A comparison with 18 sequences from West Africa revealed a new cluster with an isolate from Gambia, located at a basal position in the phylogenetic tree.