Typhoid Fever Surveillance, Incidence Estimates, and Progress Toward Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction - Worldwide, 2018-2022.

Typhoid fever, an acute febrile illness caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), is endemic in many low- and middle-income countries† (1). In 2015, an estimated 11-21 million typhoid fever cases and 148,000-161,000 associated deaths occurred worldwide (2). Effective prevention strategies include improved access to and use of infrastructure supporting safe water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH); health education; and vaccination (1). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends programmatic use of typhoid conjugate vaccines for typhoid fever control and prioritization of vaccine introduction in countries with the highest typhoid fever incidence or high prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant S. Typhi (1). This report describes typhoid fever surveillance, incidence estimates, and the status of typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction during 2018-2022. Because routine surveillance for typhoid fever has low sensitivity, population-based studies have guided estimates of case counts and incidence in 10 countries since 2016 (3-6). In 2019, an updated modeling study estimated that 9.2 million (95% CI = 5.9-14.1) typhoid fever cases and 110,000 (95% CI = 53,000-191,000) deaths occurred worldwide, with the highest estimated incidence in the WHO South-East Asian (306 cases per 100,000 persons), Eastern Mediterranean (187), and African (111) regions (7). Since 2018, five countries (Liberia, Nepal, Pakistan, Samoa [based on self-assessment], and Zimbabwe) with estimated high typhoid fever incidence (≥100 cases per 100,000 population per year) (8), high antimicrobial resistance prevalence, or recent outbreaks introduced typhoid conjugate vaccines into their routine immunization programs (2). To guide vaccine introduction decisions, countries should consider all available information, including surveillance of laboratory-confirmed cases, population-based and modeling studies, and outbreak reports. Establishing and strengthening typhoid fever surveillance will be important to measure vaccine impact.

Genomic Diversity of Haemophilus influenzae Serotype a in an Outbreak Community-Alaska, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Haemophilus influenzae serotype a (Hia) can cause severe invasive disease, especially in young children. In 2018, 4 invasive Hia cases occurred in an Alaska community. We used whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to evaluate the relationship of the bacteria from this community and other Alaska patients with invasive Hia. METHODS: All carriage (n = 15) and invasive (n = 4) Hia isolates from the outbreak community, together with 15 nonoutbreak Alaska invasive Hia surveillance isolates from 2018, were tested for antimicrobial susceptibility and characterized using WGS. RESULTS: Phylogenetic analysis of both invasive and carriage Hia isolates revealed 2 major clades that differed by an average of 300 core single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). All isolates from the outbreak community were clustered in 1 subclade, within a larger clade containing 3 nonoutbreak invasive Hia isolates. Comparative genomics did not reveal any genetic mutations that distinguished carriage from invasive isolates. Three (20%) community isolates were rifampin resistant and had a previously unreported mutation in the rpoB gene. CONCLUSIONS: In the outbreak community, Hia isolates from carriers were indistinguishable from the invasive Hia isolates. Overall, invasive Hia isolates from Alaska in 2018 were genetically similar. The rifampin resistance mutation is concerning as rifampin is the first-line medication for Hia prophylaxis.

Haemophilus influenzae Serotype a (Hia) Carriage in a Small Alaska Community After a Cluster of Invasive Hia Disease, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Between May and July 2018, 4 Haemophilus influenzae serotype a (Hia) infections occurred in a remote Alaska community. We performed a public health response to prevent further illness and understand Hia carriage. METHODS: We collected oropharyngeal samples community-wide to evaluate baseline carriage. Risk factors were evaluated by interview. We offered prophylactic rifampin to individuals in contact with invasive Hia patients (contacts) and to all children aged <10 years. Oropharyngeal samples were collected again 8 weeks after rifampin distribution. Samples were tested using real-time polymerase chain reaction and culture. RESULTS: At baseline, 4 of 27 (14.8%) contacts and 7 of 364 (1.9%) noncontacts (P < .01) carried Hia. Contacts aged <10 years were more likely to carry Hia at any timepoint (11/18 [61%]) compared to contacts aged ≥10 years (3/34 [8.8%]), noncontacts aged <10 years (2/139 [1.4%]), and noncontacts ≥10 years (6/276 [2.2%]) (P < .001 for all). Hia carriers were clustered in 9 households (7% of total households). At the household level, carriage was associated with households with ≥1 contact (prevalence ratio [PR], 5.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.3-21.6]), crowding (PR, 7.7 [95% CI, 1.1-199.5]), and ≥3 tobacco users (PR, 5.0 [95% CI, 1.2-19.6]). Elevated carriage prevalence persisted in contacts compared to noncontacts 8 weeks after rifampin distribution (6/25 [24%] contacts, 2/114 [1.8%] noncontacts; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Hia carriage prevalence was significantly higher among contacts than noncontacts. Rifampin prophylaxis did not result in a reduction of Hia carriage prevalence in this community.

Supporting countries to achieve their malaria elimination goals: the WHO E-2020 initiative.

BACKGROUND: Malaria causes more than 200 million cases of illness and 400,000 deaths each year across 90 countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) set a goal for 35 countries to eliminate malaria by 2030, with an intermediate milestone of 10 countries by 2020. In 2017, the WHO established the Elimination-2020 (E-2020) initiative to help countries achieve their malaria elimination goals and included 21 countries with the potential to eliminate malaria by 2020. METHODS: Across its three levels of activity (country, region and global), the WHO developed normative and implementation guidance on strategies and activities to eliminate malaria; provided technical support and subnational operational assistance; convened national malaria programme managers at three global meetings to share innovations and best practices; advised countries on strengthening their strategy to prevent re-establishment and preparing for WHO malaria certification; and contributed to maintaining momentum towards elimination through periodic evaluations, monitoring and oversight of progress in the E-2020 countries. Changes in the number of indigenous cases in E-2020 countries between 2016 and 2020 are reported, along with the number of countries that eliminated malaria and received WHO certification. RESULTS: The median number of indigenous cases in the E-2020 countries declined from 165.5 (interquartile range [IQR] 14.25-563.75) in 2016 to 78 (IQR 0-356) in 2020; 12 (57%) countries reported reductions in indigenous cases over that period, of which 7 (33%) interrupted malaria transmission and maintained a malaria-free status through 2020 and 4 (19%) were certified malaria-free by the WHO. Two countries experienced outbreaks of malaria in 2020 and 2021 attributed, in part, to the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Although the E-2020 countries contributed to the achievement of the 2020 global elimination milestone, the initiative highlights the difficulties countries face to interrupt malaria transmission, even when numbers of cases are very low. The 2025 global elimination milestone is now approaching, and the lessons learned, experience gained, and updated guidance developed during the E-2020 initiative will help serve the countries seeking to eliminate malaria by 2025.

Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Infections Associated With Romaine Lettuce-United States, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Produce-associated outbreaks of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) were first identified in 1991. In April 2018, New Jersey and Pennsylvania officials reported a cluster of STEC O157 infections associated with multiple locations of a restaurant chain. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) queried PulseNet, the national laboratory network for foodborne disease surveillance, for additional cases and began a national investigation. METHODS: A case was defined as an infection between 13 March and 22 August 2018 with 1 of the 22 identified outbreak-associated E. coli O157:H7 or E. coli O61 pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pattern combinations, or with a strain STEC O157 that was closely related to the main outbreak strain by whole-genome sequencing. We conducted epidemiologic and traceback investigations to identify illness subclusters and common sources. A US Food and Drug Administration-led environmental assessment, which tested water, soil, manure, compost, and scat samples, was conducted to evaluate potential sources of STEC contamination. RESULTS: We identified 240 case-patients from 37 states; 104 were hospitalized, 28 developed hemolytic uremic syndrome, and 5 died. Of 179 people who were interviewed, 152 (85%) reported consuming romaine lettuce in the week before illness onset. Twenty subclusters were identified. Product traceback from subcluster restaurants identified numerous romaine lettuce distributors and growers; all lettuce originated from the Yuma growing region. Water samples collected from an irrigation canal in the region yielded the outbreak strain of STEC O157. CONCLUSIONS: We report on the largest multistate leafy greens-linked STEC O157 outbreak in several decades. The investigation highlights the complexities associated with investigating outbreaks involving widespread environmental contamination.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of superspreading events in the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola epidemic.

The unprecedented scale of the Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015) has prompted an explosion of efforts to understand the transmission dynamics of the virus and to analyze the performance of possible containment strategies. Models have focused primarily on the reproductive numbers of the disease that represent the average number of secondary infections produced by a random infectious individual. However, these population-level estimates may conflate important systematic variation in the number of cases generated by infected individuals, particularly found in spatially localized transmission and superspreading events. Although superspreading features prominently in first-hand narratives of Ebola transmission, its dynamics have not been systematically characterized, hindering refinements of future epidemic predictions and explorations of targeted interventions. We used Bayesian model inference to integrate individual-level spatial information with other epidemiological data of community-based (undetected within clinical-care systems) cases and to explicitly infer distribution of the cases generated by each infected individual. Our results show that superspreaders play a key role in sustaining onward transmission of the epidemic, and they are responsible for a significant proportion ([Formula: see text]61%) of the infections. Our results also suggest age as a key demographic predictor for superspreading. We also show that community-based cases may have progressed more rapidly than those notified within clinical-care systems, and most transmission events occurred in a relatively short distance (with median value of 2.51 km). Our results stress the importance of characterizing superspreading of Ebola, enhance our current understanding of its spatiotemporal dynamics, and highlight the potential importance of targeted control measures.

Effect of Artesunate-Amodiaquine on Mortality Related to Ebola Virus Disease.

BACKGROUND: Malaria treatment is recommended for patients with suspected Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa, whether systeomatically or based on confirmed malaria diagnosis. At the Ebola treatment center in Foya, Lofa County, Liberia, the supply of artemether-lumefantrine, a first-line antimalarial combination drug, ran out for a 12-day period in August 2014. During this time, patients received the combination drug artesunate-amodiaquine; amodiaquine is a compound with anti-Ebola virus activity in vitro. No other obvious change in the care of patients occurred during this period. METHODS: We fit unadjusted and adjusted regression models to standardized patient-level data to estimate the risk ratio for death among patients with confirmed EVD who were prescribed artesunate-amodiaquine (artesunate-amodiaquine group), as compared with those who were prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (artemether-lumefantrine group) and those who were not prescribed any antimalarial drug (no-antimalarial group). RESULTS: Between June 5 and October 24, 2014, a total of 382 patients with confirmed EVD were admitted to the Ebola treatment center in Foya. At admission, 194 patients were prescribed artemether-lumefantrine and 71 were prescribed artesunate-amodiaquine. The characteristics of the patients in the artesunate-amodiaquine group were similar to those in the artemether-lumefantrine group and those in the no-antimalarial group. A total of 125 of the 194 patients in the artemether-lumefantrine group (64.4%) died, as compared with 36 of the 71 patients in the artesunate-amodiaquine group (50.7%). In adjusted analyses, the artesunate-amodiaquine group had a 31% lower risk of death than the artemether-lumefantrine group (risk ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.89), with a stronger effect observed among patients without malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who were prescribed artesunate-amodiaquine had a lower risk of death from EVD than did patients who were prescribed artemether-lumefantrine. However, our analyses cannot exclude the possibility that artemether-lumefantrine is associated with an increased risk of death or that the use of artesunate-amodiaquine was associated with unmeasured patient characteristics that directly altered the risk of death.

Emergence of Zaire Ebola virus disease in Guinea.

In March 2014, the World Health Organization was notified of an outbreak of a communicable disease characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting, and a high fatality rate in Guinea. Virologic investigation identified Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) as the causative agent. Full-length genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis showed that EBOV from Guinea forms a separate clade in relationship to the known EBOV strains from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon. Epidemiologic investigation linked the laboratory-confirmed cases with the presumed first fatality of the outbreak in December 2013. This study demonstrates the emergence of a new EBOV strain in Guinea.

Ebola Virus Disease Complications as Experienced by Survivors in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Thousands of people have survived Ebola virus disease (EVD) during the ongoing outbreak. However, data about the frequency and risk factors of long-term post-EVD complications remain scarce. We describe the clinical characteristics of EVD survivors followed in a survivor clinic in Freetown, Sierra Leone. METHODS: A survivor clinic opened within an Ebola treatment center compound in Freetown, Sierra Leone. At each visit, clinical and psychological assessments were conducted and free treatment was offered. Survivors were referred to a partner's hospitals if their condition could not be managed in the clinic. We used routinely collected data from the clinic to describe long-term complications of EVD and their risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1001 medical consultations for 166 patients were performed between 3 February and 21 June 2015. The most frequent complaints and diagnoses were arthralgia (n = 129 [77.7%]), fatigue (n = 116 [69.8%]), abdominal pain (n = 90 [54.2%]), headache (n = 87 [52.4%]), anemia (n = 83 [50%]), skin disorders (n = 81 [48.8%]), back pain (n = 54 [32.5%]), and alopecia (n = 53 [31.9%]). Ocular complications were diagnosed in 94 survivors (56.7%); uveitis was the most common (n = 57 [34%]). Survivors were 10 times more likely to develop uveitis post-EVD if they presented with red/injected eyes during the acute phase of their illness. CONCLUSIONS: Post-EVD complications among our patients were similar to those described previously and were detected early following the acute phase of disease. Follow-up of survivors should begin immediately after discharge to address sequelae as they arise and reduce the potential for development of long-term disabilities such as blindness.

Encouraging impact following 2.5 years of reinforced malaria control interventions in a hyperendemic region of the Republic of Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is one of the principal causes of morbidity and mortality in the Republic of Guinea, particularly in the highly endemic regions. To assist in malaria control efforts, a multi-component malaria control intervention was implemented in the hyperendemic region of Guéckédou Prefecture. The coverage of the intervention and its impact on malaria parasite prevalence were assessed. METHODS: Five cross-sectional surveys using cluster-based sampling and stratified by area were conducted from 2011 to 2013 in three sous-préfectures of Guéckédou Préfecture that received the intervention: Guéckédou City, Tékoulo and Guendembou in addition to one comparison sous-préfecture that did not receive the intervention, Koundou. Surveys were repeated every 6 months, corresponding with the dry and rainy seasons. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) were used to diagnose malaria infection. In each selected household, bed net use and ownership were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 35,123 individuals participated in the surveys. Malaria parasite prevalence declined in all intervention sous-préfectures from 2011 to 2013 (56.4-45.9 % in Guéckédou City, 64.9-54.1 % in Tékoulo and 69.4-56.9 % in Guendembou) while increasing in the comparison sous-préfecture (64.5-69 %). It was consistently higher in children 5-14 years of age followed by those 1-59 months and ≥15 years. Indicators of intervention coverage, the proportion of households reporting ownership of at least one bed net and the proportion of survey participants with fever who received treatment from a health facility or community health worker also increased significantly in the intervention areas. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the multi-component malaria control intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria in the sous-préfectures of intervention while also increasing the coverage of bed nets. However, malaria prevalence remains unacceptably high and disproportionately affects children <15 years of age. In such situations additional vector control interventions and age specific interventions should be considered.

Reactive Case Detection and Treatment and Reactive Drug Administration for Reducing Malaria Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Many countries pursuing malaria elimination implement "reactive" strategies targeting household members and neighbors of index cases to reduce transmission. These strategies include reactive case detection and treatment (RACDT; testing and treating those positive) and reactive drug administration (RDA; providing antimalarials without testing). We conducted systematic reviews of RACDT and RDA to assess their effect on reducing malaria transmission and gathered evidence about key contextual factors important to their implementation. Two reviewers screened titles/abstracts and full-text records using defined criteria (Patient = those in malaria-endemic/receptive areas; Intervention = RACDT or RDA; Comparison = standard of care; Outcome = malaria incidence/prevalence) and abstracted data for meta-analyses. The Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations approach was used to rate certainty of evidence (CoE) for each outcome. Of 1,460 records screened, reviewers identified five RACDT studies (three cluster-randomized controlled trials [cRCTs] and two nonrandomized studies [NRS]) and seven RDA studies (six cRCTs and one NRS); three cRCTs comparing RDA to RACDT were included in both reviews. Compared with RDA, RACDT was associated with nonsignificantly higher parasite prevalence (odds ratio [OR] = 1.85; 95% CI: 0.96-3.57; one study) and malaria incidence (rate ratio [RR] = 1.30; 95% CI: 0.94-1.79; three studies), both very low CoE. Compared with control or RACDT, RDA was associated with non-significantly lower parasite incidence (RR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.36-1.47; 2 studies, moderate CoE), prevalence (OR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.52-1.17; 4 studies, low CoE), and malaria incidence (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.82-1.05; six studies, moderate CoE). Evidence for reactive strategies' impact on malaria transmission is limited, especially for RACDT, but suggests RDA might be more effective.

Development of WHO Recommendations for the Final Phase of Elimination and Prevention of Re-Establishment of Malaria.

The WHO recommends that all affected countries work toward the elimination of malaria, even those still experiencing a high burden of disease. However, malaria programs in the final phase of elimination or those working to prevent re-establishment of transmission after elimination could benefit from specific evidence-based recommendations for these settings as part of comprehensive and quality-controlled malaria guidelines. The WHO convened an external guideline development group to formulate recommendations for interventions to reduce or prevent malaria transmission in areas with very low- to low-transmission levels and those that have eliminated malaria. In addition, several interventions that could be deployed in higher burden areas to accelerate elimination, such as mass drug administration, were reviewed. Systematic reviews were conducted that synthesized and evaluated evidence for the benefits and harms of public health interventions and summarized critical contextual factors from a health systems perspective. A total of 12 recommendations were developed, with five related to mass interventions that could be deployed at higher transmission levels and seven that would be most appropriate for programs in areas close to elimination or those working to prevent re-establishment of transmission. Four chemoprevention, two active case detection, and one vector control interventions were positively recommended, whereas two chemoprevention and three active case detection interventions were not recommended by the WHO. None of the recommendations were classified as strong given the limited and low-quality evidence base. Approaches to conducting higher quality research in very low- to low-transmission settings to improve the strength of WHO recommendations are discussed.

Sustaining surveillance as an intervention during the COVID-19 pandemic in Cabo Verde and implications for malaria elimination.

Cabo Verde reported the first case of COVID-19 on March 19, 2020. Containment measures were quickly implemented and over 80,000 COVID-19 tests were performed in 2020 with 11,840 confirmed infections (2% of the population) and 154 deaths. In a setting where the last locally acquired malaria case was reported in January 2018, any interruptions to malaria care-seeking have the potential for infections to go untreated and transmission re-establishing. This work aims to determine whether there was any change in the number of people seeking care or being tested for malaria and, using an interrupted time series analysis, identify if any change was associated with implemented COVID-19 measures. Routinely collected surveillance data for outpatient visits, testing for malaria and COVID-19 were aggregated by month for each health facility (outpatient and malaria) or by municipality (COVID-19) from 2017 through 2020. The timeline of COVID-19 measures was generated based on when and where they were implemented. Results show that there was a marked shift in care-seeking in Cabo Verde. Overall, the mean number of observed outpatient visits decreased from 2,057 visits per month during 2017-2019 to 1,088 in 2020, an estimated 28% reduction. However, malaria testing rates per 1,000 outpatient visits after the pandemic began increased by 8% compared to expected trends. Results suggest that the pandemic impacted care-seeking but led to a non-significant increase in testing for malaria per 1,000 outpatient visits. With the cessation of international travel, the risk of imported infections seeding new transmission declined suggesting the risk of undetected transmission was low. It is important for countries to understand their specific malaria risks and vulnerabilities in order to ensure that any progress towards the interruption of malaria transmission can be sustained.

People-centred surveillance: a narrative review of community-based surveillance among crisis-affected populations.

Outbreaks of disease in settings affected by crises grow rapidly due to late detection and weakened public health systems. Where surveillance is underfunctioning, community-based surveillance can contribute to rapid outbreak detection and response, a core capacity of the International Health Regulations. We reviewed articles describing the potential for community-based surveillance to detect diseases of epidemic potential, outbreaks, and mortality among populations affected by crises. Surveillance objectives have included the early warning of outbreaks, active case finding during outbreaks, case finding for eradication programmes, and mortality surveillance. Community-based surveillance can provide sensitive and timely detection, identify valid signals for diseases with salient symptoms, and provide continuity in remote areas during cycles of insecurity. Effectiveness appears to be mediated by operational requirements for continuous supervision of large community networks, verification of a large number of signals, and integration of community-based surveillance within the routine investigation and response infrastructure. Similar to all community health systems, community-based surveillance requires simple design, reliable supervision, and early and routine monitoring and evaluation to ensure data validity. Research priorities include the evaluation of syndromic case definitions, electronic data collection for community members, sentinel site designs, and statistical techniques to counterbalance false positive signals.

Unreported cases in the 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic: Spatiotemporal variation, and implications for estimating transmission.

In the recent 2014-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, non-hospitalized cases were an important component of the chain of transmission. However, non-hospitalized cases are at increased risk of going unreported because of barriers to access to healthcare. Furthermore, underreporting rates may fluctuate over space and time, biasing estimates of disease transmission rates, which are important for understanding spread and planning control measures. We performed a retrospective analysis on community deaths during the recent Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone to estimate the number of unreported non-hospitalized cases, and to quantify how Ebola reporting rates varied across locations and over time. We then tested if variation in reporting rates affected the estimates of disease transmission rates that were used in surveillance and response. We found significant variation in reporting rates among districts, and district-specific rates of increase in reporting over time. Correcting time series of numbers of cases for variable reporting rates led, in some instances, to different estimates of the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic, particularly outside the capital. Future analyses that compare Ebola transmission rates over time and across locations may be improved by considering the impacts of differential reporting rates.

Estimating the number of secondary Ebola cases resulting from an unsafe burial and risk factors for transmission during the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Safely burying Ebola infected individuals is acknowledged to be important for controlling Ebola epidemics and was a major component of the 2013-2016 West Africa Ebola response. Yet, in order to understand the impact of safe burial programs it is necessary to elucidate the role of unsafe burials in sustaining chains of Ebola transmission and how the risk posed by activities surrounding unsafe burials, including care provided at home prior to death, vary with human behavior and geography. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Interviews with next of kin and community members were carried out for unsafe burials in Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea, in six districts where the Red Cross was responsible for safe and dignified burials (SDB). Districts were randomly selected from a district-specific sampling frame comprised of villages and neighborhoods that had experienced cases of Ebola. An average of 2.58 secondary cases were potentially generated per unsafe burial and varied by district (range: 0-20). Contact before and after death was reported for 142 (46%) contacts. Caregivers of a primary case were 2.63 to 5.92 times more likely to become EVD infected compared to those with post-mortem contact only. Using these estimates, the Red Cross SDB program potentially averted between 1,411 and 10,452 secondary EVD cases, reducing the epidemic by 4.9% to 36.5%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: SDB is a fundamental control measure that limits community transmission of Ebola; however, for those individuals having contact before and after death, it was impossible to ascertain the exposure that caused their infection. The number of infections prevented through SDB is significant, yet greater impact would be achieved by early hospitalization of the primary case during acute illness.

The impact of control strategies and behavioural changes on the elimination of Ebola from Lofa County, Liberia.

The Ebola epidemic in West Africa was stopped by an enormous concerted effort of local communities and national and international organizations. It is not clear, however, how much the public health response and behavioural changes in affected communities, respectively, contributed to ending the outbreak. Here, we analyse the epidemic in Lofa County, Liberia, lasting from March to November 2014, by reporting a comprehensive time line of events and estimating the time-varying transmission intensity using a mathematical model of Ebola transmission. Model fits to the epidemic show an alternation of peaks and troughs in transmission, consistent with highly heterogeneous spread. This is combined with an overall decline in the reproduction number of Ebola transmission from early August, coinciding with an expansion of the local Ebola treatment centre. We estimate that healthcare seeking approximately doubled over the course of the outbreak, and that isolation of those seeking healthcare reduced their reproduction number by 62% (mean estimate, 95% credible interval (CI) 59-66). Both expansion of bed availability and improved healthcare seeking contributed to ending the epidemic, highlighting the importance of community engagement alongside clinical intervention.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'.

Changes in Health-Seeking Behavior Did Not Result in Increased All-Cause Mortality During the Ebola Outbreak in Western Area, Sierra Leone.

Little is known about the residual effects of the west African Ebola virus disease (Ebola) epidemic on non-Ebola mortality and health-seeking behavior in Sierra Leone. We conducted a retrospective household survey to estimate mortality and describe health-seeking behavior in Western Area, Sierra Leone, between May 25, 2014, and February 16, 2015. We used two-stage cluster sampling, selected 30 geographical sectors with probability proportional to population size, and sampled 30 households per sector. Survey teams conducted face-to-face interviews and collected information on mortality and health-seeking behavior. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates and compared health-seeking behavior before and during the Ebola epidemic using χ2 and Fisher's exact tests. Ninety-six deaths, 39 due to Ebola, were reported in 898 households. All-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates were 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.29-0.76) and 0.19 (95% CI = 0.01-0.38) per 10,000 inhabitants per day, respectively. Of those households that reported a sick family member during the month before the survey, 86% (73/85) sought care at a health facility before the epidemic, compared with 58% (50/86) in February 2015 (P = 0.013). Reported self-medication increased from 4% (3/85) before the epidemic to 23% (20/86) during the epidemic (P = 0.013). Underutilization of health services and increased self-medication did not show a demonstrable effect on non-Ebola-related mortality. Nevertheless, the residual effects of outbreaks need to be taken into account for the future. Recovery efforts should focus on rebuilding both the formalized health system and the population's trust in it.

Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014-2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey.

Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia. However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. We defined an Ebola-related death as any death meeting the Liberian Ebola case definition. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates. The sample consisted of 6,813 household members in 905 households. We estimated a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.33/10,000 persons/day (95%CI:0.25-0.43) and an Ebola-specific mortality rate of 0.06/10,000 persons/day (95%-CI:0.03-0.11). During the recall period, 17 Ebola cases were reported including those who died. In the 30 days prior to the survey 277 household members were reported sick; malaria accounted for 54% (150/277). Of the sick household members, 43% (122/276) did not visit any health care facility. The mobile phone-based survey was found to be a feasible and acceptable alternative method when data collection in the community is impossible. CMR was estimated well below the emergency threshold of 1/10,000 persons/day. Non-Ebola-related mortality in Monrovia was not higher than previous national estimates of mortality for Liberia. However, excess mortality directly resulting from Ebola did occur in the population. Importantly, the small proportion of sick household members presenting to official health facilities when sick might pose a challenge for future outbreak detection and mitigation. Substantial reported health-seeking behaviour outside of health facilities may also suggest the need for adapted health messaging and improved access to health care.