National health examination surveys; a source of critical data.

The aim of this paper is to contribute technical arguments to the debate about the importance of health examination surveys and their continued use during the post-pandemic health financing crisis, and in the context of a technological innovation boom that offers new ways of collecting and analysing individual health data (e.g. artificial intelligence). Technical considerations demonstrate that health examination surveys make an irreplaceable contribution to the local availability of primary health data that can be used in a range of further studies (e.g. normative, burden-of-disease, care cascade, cost and policy impact studies) essential for informing several phases of the health planning cycle (e.g. surveillance, prioritization, resource mobilization and policy development). Examples of the use of health examination survey data in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region (i.e. Finland, Italy, Malta and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) and the WHO Region of the Americas (i.e. Chile, Mexico, Peru and the United States of America) are presented, and reasons why health provider-led data cannot replace health examination survey data are discussed (e.g. underestimation of morbidity and susceptibility to bias). In addition, the importance of having nationally representative random samples of the general population is highlighted and we argue that health examination surveys make a critical contribution to external quality control for a country's health system by increasing the transparency and accountability of health spending. Finally, we consider future technological advances that can improve survey fieldwork and suggest ways of ensuring health examination surveys are sustainable in low-resource settings.

Cet article a pour objet d'apporter des arguments techniques au débat sur l'importance des enquêtes de santé par examen et sur leur utilisation continue pendant la crise post-pandémique du financement de la santé et dans le contexte d'un essor de l'innovation technologique qui offre de nouvelles façons de collecter et d'analyser les données individuelles sur la santé (comme l'intelligence artificielle). Les considérations techniques démontrent que les enquêtes de santé par examen apportent une contribution irremplaçable à la disponibilité locale de données de santé primaires qui peuvent servir dans une série d'études complémentaires (telles que des études normatives, sur la charge de morbidité, la cascade des soins, les coûts et l'impact des politiques). Ces études sont essentielles pour renseigner plusieurs phases du cycle de planification sanitaire (par exemple: surveillance, priorisation, mobilisation de ressources et élaboration de politiques). Cet article présente des exemples d'utilisation des données d'enquêtes de santé par examen dans la Région OMS de l'Europe (Finlande, Italie, Malte et Royaume-Uni de Grande-Bretagne et d'Irlande du Nord) et dans la Région OMS des Amériques (Chili, États-Unis d'Amérique, Mexique et Pérou) et aborde les raisons pour lesquelles les données fournies par les prestataires de soins de santé ne peuvent pas remplacer les données d'enquêtes de santé par examen (par exemple la sous-estimation de la morbidité et la vulnérabilité aux biais). En outre, il soulignet l'importance de disposer d'échantillons aléatoires représentatifs de la population générale au niveau national, et nous soutenons que les enquêtes de santé par examen apportent une contribution essentielle au contrôle externe de la qualité du système de santé d'un pays en renforçant la transparence des dépenses de santé et l'obligation de rendre des comptes à leur sujet. Enfin, nous envisageons les futures avancées technologiques susceptibles d'améliorer le travail d'enquête sur le terrain et suggérons des moyens d'assurer la viabilité des enquêtes de santé par examen dans les environnements à faibles ressources.

El objetivo de este artículo es aportar argumentos técnicos al debate sobre la importancia de las encuestas de salud y su uso continuado durante la crisis de financiación sanitaria pospandémica y en el contexto de un auge de la innovación tecnológica que ofrece nuevas formas de recopilar y analizar datos sanitarios individuales (por ejemplo, la inteligencia artificial). Las consideraciones técnicas demuestran que las encuestas de salud contribuyen de manera insustituible a la disponibilidad local de datos sanitarios primarios que pueden utilizarse en toda una serie de estudios posteriores (por ejemplo, estudios normativos, de carga de morbilidad, de cascada asistencial, de costes y de impacto de las políticas) esenciales para fundamentar varias fases del ciclo de planificación sanitaria (por ejemplo, vigilancia, establecimiento de prioridades, movilización de recursos y elaboración de políticas). Se presentan ejemplos del uso de los datos de las encuestas de salud en la Región Europea de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (Finlandia, Italia, Malta y el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña e Irlanda del Norte) y en la Región de las Américas de la OMS (Chile, Estados Unidos de América, México y Perú) y se analizan las razones por las que los datos obtenidos por los proveedores sanitarios no pueden sustituir a los de las encuestas de salud (por ejemplo, la subestimación de la morbilidad y la posibilidad de sesgo). Además, se destaca la importancia de contar con muestras aleatorias representativas de la población general a escala nacional y se argumenta que las encuestas de salud contribuyen de forma decisiva al control de calidad externo del sistema sanitario de un país, al aumentar la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas del gasto sanitario. Por último, se examinan los futuros avances tecnológicos que pueden mejorar el trabajo de campo de las encuestas y se sugieren métodos para garantizar que las encuestas de salud sean sostenibles en entornos con pocos recursos.

Dietary atherogenicity and thrombogenicity indexes predicting cardiovascular mortality: 50-year follow-up of the Seven Countries Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: To study the relationships of an Atherogenicity Index (ATI) and a Thrombogenicity Index (THI), with 50-year mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), other heart diseases of uncertain etiology (HDUE) and cerebrovascular disease or stroke (STR), in 16 international cohorts of middle-aged men. METHODS AND RESULTS: Foods from a dietary survey in subsamples of men in each cohort of the Seven Countries Study (SCS) were chemically analyzed for several types of fatty acids that were converted into ATI and THI identifying each of 16 cohorts. Ecological correlations of the ATI and THI were calculated with the three fatal CVD conditions and with all-cause mortality at 25 and 50 years. Correlation coefficients (Rs) were positive and highly significant between ATI and THI versus CHD mortality, with levels ranging from 0.79 to 0.97, depending on the duration of follow-up and the choice of 10 or of 16 cohorts. This was not the case for HDUE and STR mortality for which Rs were variable and not significant. A strong direct association was also found with all-causes deaths at 25 and 50-years. ATI and THI were also directly related with dietary saturated fat and cholesterol levels and inversely with the Mediterranean Adequacy Index (a score identifying the Mediterranean diet). CONCLUSION: These findings indicate that CHD has a different relationship with dietary lipids intake than HDUE and STR. This suggests that HDUE and STR have different underlying pathways or are different diseases.

Work ability trends 2000-2020 and birth-cohort projections until 2040 in Finland.

Aims: To examine age-group and birth-cohort trends in perceived work ability in Finland in 2000-2020 and make projections of perceived work ability up to 2040 based on the observed birth-cohort development. Methods: Ten population-representative cross-sectional surveys conducted in Finland between 2000 and 2020 were used (overall N = 61,087, range 817-18,956). Self-reported estimates of current work ability in relation to the person's lifetime best on a scale from zero to ten (0-10) were classified into three groups: limited (0-5), intermediate (6-7), and good (8-10). Multiple imputation was used in projecting work ability. Results: Examining past trends by 5-year birth-cohorts born between 1961 and 1995 showed that work ability has declined steadily over time among older birth-cohorts, while in the two younger cohorts a stable development before 2017 and a steep decline between 2017 and 2020 was seen. Trends by 5-year age groups showed a declining trend of good work ability among 20-44-year-olds, a stable trend among 45-54-year-olds, and an improving trend among 55-year-olds and older was observed for the period 2000-2020. Among the under 55-year-olds the prevalence of good work ability ended up around 75% and at 68% among the 55-59-year-olds, 58% among the 60-69-year-olds and 49% among the 70-74-year-olds in 2020. Birth-cohort projections suggested a declining work ability in the future among all age groups included (30-74 years). By 2040, the prevalence of good work ability is projected to decline by 10 to 15 percentage points among 45-74-year-olds. Conclusions: The projections suggest declining work ability in the future. Efforts to counteract the decline in work ability are needed.

European Health Information Portal: a one-stop shop for health information.

BACKGROUND: Timely and high-quality population-level health information is needed to support evidence-informed decision-making, for planning and evaluation of prevention, care and cure activities as well as for research to generate new knowledge. FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable) principles are one of the key elements supporting health research and making it more cost-effective through the reuse of already existing data. Currently, health data are in many countries dispersed and difficult to find and access. METHODS: Two EU Public Health Programmes co-funded Joint Actions, Information for Action (InfAct) and Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI) have established a European Health Information Portal, a web-based service, to facilitate better findability, access, interoperability and reuse of existing health information. RESULTS: The European Health Information Portal (www.healthinformationportal.eu) has been established including sections on National Nodes, data sources, publications, health information projects within countries and across Europe, research networks and research infrastructures, ethical and legal issues for health information exchange and use, capacity-building activities in all areas of population health and a dedicated COVID-19 section. CONCLUSIONS: The European Health Information Portal, being a central place for a wide range of population health information from EU Member States, is an information source for researchers, policy-makers and other relevant stakeholders. It is important to ensure the sustainability of the portal, especially in light of the European Health Data Space (EHDS) Regulation proposal and its requirements regarding the secondary use of health data.

Projections for obesity, smoking and hypertension based on multiple imputation.

AIMS: Information on the future development of prevalences of risk factors and health indicators is needed to prepare for the forthcoming burden of disease in the population and to allocate resources properly for prevention. We aim to present how multiple imputation can be used flexibly to project future prevalences. METHODS: The proposed approach uses data on repeated cross-sectional surveys from different years. We create future samples with age and sex distributions corresponding to the official national population forecasts. Then, the risk factors are simulated using multiple imputation by chained equations. Finally, the imputations are pooled to obtain the prevalences of interest. Covariates, such as sociodemographic variables as well as their possible interactions and non-linear terms, can be included in the modelling. The future development of these covariates is also projected simultaneously. We apply the procedure to data from five Finnish health examination surveys conducted between 1997 and 2017, and project the prevalences of obesity, smoking and hypertension to 2020 and 2025. RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity is projected to increase to 24% for both men and women in 2025. The prevalences of hypertension and smoking are expected to continue decreasing, and the differences between men and women are projected to remain so that men will have higher prevalences. CONCLUSIONS: Simulation of future observations by multiple imputation can be used as a flexible yet relatively easy-to-use projection method.

Adjustment for survey non-participation using record linkage and multiple imputation: A validity assessment exercise using the Health 2000 survey.

AIMS: It is becoming increasingly possible to obtain additional information about health survey participants, though not usually non-participants, via record linkage. We aimed to assess the validity of an assumption underpinning a method developed to mitigate non-participation bias. We use a survey in Finland where it is possible to link both participants and non-participants to administrative registers. Survey-derived alcohol consumption is used as the exemplar outcome. METHODS: Data on participants (85.5%) and true non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey (invited survey sample N=7167 aged 30-79 years) and a contemporaneous register-based population sample (N=496,079) were individually linked to alcohol-related hospitalisation and death records. Applying the methodology to create synthetic observations on non-participants, we created 'inferred samples' (participants and inferred non-participants). Relative differences (RDs) between the inferred sample and the invited survey sample were estimated overall and by education. Five per cent limits were used to define acceptable RDs. RESULTS: Average weekly consumption estimates for men were 129 g and 131 g of alcohol in inferred and invited survey samples, respectively (RD -1.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -2.2 to -0.04%) and 35 g for women in both samples (RD -1.1%; 95% CI -2.4 to -0.8%). Estimates for men with secondary levels of education had the greatest RD (-2.4%; 95% CI -3.7 to -1.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The sufficiently small RDs between inferred and invited survey samples support the assumption validity and use of our methodology for adjusting for non-participation. However, the presence of some significant differences means caution is required.

Development of non-communicable disease risk factors in Finland: projections up to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases are a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. They share the same behavioural risk factors (smoking, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption and an unhealthy diet), all of which are modifiable risk factors, and biological consequences (hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, obesity and diabetes). METHODS: Using data from a series of cross-sectional health examination surveys conducted among the adult population in Finland from 1997 to 2017, a projection of risk factor development (smoking, leisure time sedentary behaviour, hypertension, elevated total cholesterol, overweight and obesity, and diabetes) up to the year 2040 was made. The projections were estimated using a multiple imputation method. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence is estimated to continue to decline up to 2040, similar to hypertension and elevated total cholesterol. By contrast, obesity and diabetes will develop unfavourably, with an increase in prevalence. The increase in obesity is mainly due to polarisation - that is, normal-weight people remain of a normal weight, but overweight people tend to gain more weight and become obese. The observed and estimated changes for leisure time sedentary lifestyle were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Projections of risk factors for non-communicable diseases are needed to guide public health policies and programmes, decision-making and the allocation of health care resources for prevention and care. In Finland, favourable developments have been seen in many of the risk factors, but obesity and diabetes show unfavourable development. There is a need to continue regular, systematic monitoring of the development of risk factors through health examination surveys and to set national goals and programmes to tackle the existing problems.

Cardiovascular risk factors predict age at death in 60-year follow-up of the Seven Countries Study.

OBJECTIVES: To study age at death (AD) and its determinants in cohorts of middle-aged men followed-up until extinction. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 9063 middle-aged men enrolled in 10 cohorts of 6 countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Greece and Japan) within the Seven Countries Study were examined and then followed up for 60 years until extinction. AD was computed and a small number of risk factors were tested through multiple linear regression as possibly related to attained AD. RESULTS: AD ranged across cohorts from 71.8 years in East Finland and 80.5 years in Crete with levels roughly lower in the USA and Northern Europe and higher elsewhere. Across cohorts, the correlation coefficients of systolic blood pressure (R = -0.58) and of CVD prevalence (R = -0.65) versus average AD were the only significant ones. At the individual level in the pool of all cohorts, a multiple linear regression model showed that age, vigorous physical activity, never and ex-smokers were favorably related to AD, while the reverse was true for systolic blood pressure, heart rate, serum cholesterol, CVD prevalence and silent ECG abnormalities. BMI had a parabolic relationship with AD. The predicting power of single risk factors, expressed in years gained or lost, was relatively small, but arbitrary combinations of several of them produced large differences in AD. CONCLUSIONS: A small number of CVD risk factors were strongly associated with AD in a life-long follow-up.

Family socioeconomic status and childhood adiposity in Europe - A scoping review.

Childhood obesity is a considerable public health problem worldwide. In Europe, lower parental socioeconomic status (SES) relates to higher childhood adiposity. This scoping review strives to discover, which SES indicators are the most commonly used and meaningful determinants of childhood adiposity (greater level of continuous adiposity indicator, e.g. body mass index z-score, or overweight or obesity categorized by established definitions). The review focused on studies about European general populations from the 21st century (January 2000-April 2021) considering children and adolescents aged 0-17 years. PubMed and reference lists of articles were searched in February-April 2021. Total of 53 studies with 121 association analyses between different SES indicators and adiposity indicators, were identified and reviewed. Different SES indicators were grouped to 25 indicators and further to six indicator groups. The most used indicator was mother's education (n of association analyses = 24) and the most used indicator group was parental education (n of association analyses = 51). Of all association analyses, 55% were inverse, 36% were non-significant, and 8% were positive. Composite SES (80%), parental education (69%) and parental occupation (64%) indicators showed most frequently inverse associations with obesity measures (i.e. lower parental SES associating with higher adiposity), while parental income (50% inverse; 50% non-significant) and property and affluence (42% inverse; 50% nonsignificant) indicators showed approximately even number of inverse and non-significant associations. Instead, majority of parental employment (60%) indicators, showed non-significant associations and 33% showed positive associations (i.e. higher parental SES associating with higher adiposity). Despite some variation in percentages, majority of the associations were inverse in each age group and with different outcome categorizations. In girls and in boys, non-significant associations predominated. It seems that children with parents of higher SES have lower likelihood of adiposity in Europe. Parents' employment appears to differ from other SES indicators, so that having an employed parent(s) does not associate with lower likelihood of adiposity. Positive associations seem to occur more frequently in poorer countries. Criteria for uniform childhood SES and adiposity measures should be established and used in studies in order to be able to produce comparable results across countries.

Using multiple imputation and intervention-based scenarios to project the mobility of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Projections of the development of mobility limitations of older adults are needed for evidence-based policy making. The aim of this study was to generate projections of mobility limitations among older people in the United States, England, and Finland. METHODS: We applied multiple imputation modelling with bootstrapping to generate projections of stair climbing and walking limitations until 2026. A physical activity intervention producing a beneficial effect on self-reported activities of daily living measures was identified in a comprehensive literature search and incorporated in the scenarios used in the projections. We utilised the harmonised longitudinal survey data from the Ageing Trajectories of Health - Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies (ATHLOS) project (N = 24,982). RESULTS: Based on the scenarios from 2012 to 2026, the prevalence of walking limitations will decrease from 9.4 to 6.4%. A physical activity intervention would decrease the prevalence of stair climbing limitations compared with no intervention from 28.9 to 18.9% between 2012 and 2026. CONCLUSIONS: A physical activity intervention implemented on older population seems to have a positive effect on maintaining mobility in the future. Our method provides an interesting option for generating projections by incorporating intervention-based scenarios.

Experiences from the harmonization of Finnish national population-based health survey data.

Aims: There are several advantages to pooling survey data from individual studies over time or across different countries. Our aim is to share our experiences on harmonizing data from 13 Finnish health examination surveys covering the years 1972-2017 and to describe the challenges related to harmonizing different variable types using two questionnaire variables - blood pressure measurement and total cholesterol assessment - as examples. Methods: Data from Finnish national population-based health surveys were harmonized as part of the research project 'Projections of the Burden of Disease and Disability in Finland - Health Policy Prospects', including variables from questionnaires, objective health measurements and results from the laboratory analysis of biological samples. The process presented in the Maelstrom Research guidelines for data harmonization was followed with minor adjustments. Results: The harmonization of data from objective measurements and biomarkers was reasonably straightforward, but questionnaire items proved more challenging. Some questions and response options had changed during the covered time period. This concerned, for example, questionnaire items on the availability and use of medication and diet. Conclusions: The long time period - 45 years - made harmonization more complicated. The survey questions or response options had changed for some topics due to changes in society. However, common core variables for topics that were especially relevant for the project, such as lifestyle factors and certain diseases or conditions, could be harmonized with sufficient comparability. For future surveys, the use of standardized survey methods and the proper documentation of data collection are recommended to facilitate harmonization.

The effects of long-term physical activity interventions in communities: Scoping review in the Nordic countries.

Aims: Physical activity (PA) is an important part of maintaining good overall health. Currently, the number of insufficiently physically active adults and children is alarmingly high worldwide. To tackle the challenge, several interventions have been conducted, however, current knowledge on intervention effectiveness is still inconclusive. This scoping review aimed to summarize the effects of long-term PA interventions across all age groups in the Nordic countries. Methods: A scoping review was conducted by including all age groups and interventions lasting more than 12 months. The aims of the interventions had to focus on increasing PA and/or fitness. The Behaviour Change Wheel framework was used to describe components of the intervention functions. Results: Initially, 1937 studies were identified. Twelve intervention studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. From the included studies, seven focused on children and/or their parents and five on working-age adult populations. Most of the studies built on theoretical backgrounds and included several behaviour change functions. A hindering factor for synthesis was variation in measurement methods: both subjective and objective outcome measures were reported. Among all age groups, intervention effects on PA were modest. Conclusions: There was no clear evidence of increased PA or fitness from long-term interventions in communities. However, even small improvements in PA are important for increasing PA at a population level and enhancing public health. More research is required for evidence-based community and public health planning.

High R wave as a risk factor for cardivoascular and all-cause mortality. A 45-year follow-up of 13 cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

OBJECTIVES: To study the role of high R waves predicting cardiovascular (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a male middle-aged population followed-up 45 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 7985 CVD-free men aged 40-59 years were enrolled in 13 cohorts in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece, Japan) and high R waves were classified by Minnesota Code 3.1 (as a dichotomous variable) from baseline resting otherwise normal ECG at entry examination together with other personal characteristics. Cox models were solved to detect the possible predictive role of high R waves for CVD and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In Cox models high R waves were predictive of 45-year major CVD deaths with a hazard ratio of 1.17 (95% confidence intervals of 1.03-1.33) after adjustment for 6 major CVD risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, cigarette smoking, physical activity and body mass index). The predictive role of high R wave was less evident for 45-year all-cause mortality and after adjustment for the 6 covariates the HR of high R wave lost its significance. A multiple logistic model indicated that body mass index, serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and mainly vigorous physical activity were directly related to high R wave prevalence while heart rate, subscapular skinfold, laterality index and shoulder pelvis shape did so in an inverse way. CONCLUSION: High R waves seem associated with an excess CVD mortality in a 45-year follow-up of middle-aged men, while their role is diluted when the end-point is all-cause mortality.

Age at death in elderly cohorts of four European countries of the Seven Countries Study: the role of comorbidities.

PURPOSE: To study age at death (AD) in elderly men as a function of risk factors and morbid conditions in a 25-year follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Men enrolled in the Seven Countries Study belonging to 8 cohorts in 4 European countries (Finland, The Netherlands, Italy and Serbia) were examined between 1984 and 1989 (aged 65-84 years) with measurement of some cardiovascular risk factors and recording of a few major morbid conditions. AD was measured after 25-year follow-up and used in multiple linear regression (MLR) models as dependent variable; while, risk factors and morbid conditions had the role of independent variables. RESULTS: Out of 2457 men, 2290 died during 25-year follow-up. Overall mean AD was of 82.0 years and slightly different across cohorts, the lowest being recorded in Finland. Age at entry examination and HDL cholesterol were directly associated with AD; while, blood pressure, heart rate, smoking habits and morbid conditions (major cardiovascular diseases, either independently or combined together with diabetes, chronic bronchitis, cancer and silent ECG abnormalities) were inversely related to AD. Body mass index had a parabolic relation with AD with longer survival for levels around 24 units; while, total serum cholesterol was not related to AD. However, only three independent variables were statistically significant when tested in each individual country (age, heart rate and stroke). In a MLR model, where a comorbidity score was entered as independent variable (everything else being equal), the presence of 1 morbid condition was associated with a reduced AD by 1.87 years that increased up to 6.39 years when 4 morbid conditions were present. CONCLUSION: AD seems a valuable indicator of all-cause mortality when the study population has reached or approached the extinction.

Alcohol-related Outcomes and All-cause Mortality in the Health 2000 Survey by Participation Status and Compared with the Finnish Population.

BACKGROUND: In the context of declining levels of participation, understanding differences between participants and non-participants in health surveys is increasingly important for reliable measurement of health-related behaviors and their social differentials. This study compared participants and non-participants of the Finnish Health 2000 survey, and participants and a representative sample of the target population, in terms of alcohol-related harms (hospitalizations and deaths) and all-cause mortality. METHODS: We individually linked 6,127 survey participants and 1,040 non-participants, aged 30-79, and a register-based population sample (n = 496,079) to 12 years of subsequent administrative hospital discharge and mortality data. We estimated age-standardized rates and rate ratios for each outcome for non-participants and the population sample relative to participants with and without sampling weights by sex and educational attainment. RESULTS: Harms and mortality were higher in non-participants, relative to participants for both men (rate ratios = 1.5 [95% confidence interval = 1.2, 1.9] for harms; 1.6 [1.3, 2.0] for mortality) and women (2.7 [1.6, 4.4] harms; 1.7 [1.4, 2.0] mortality). Non-participation bias in harms estimates in women increased with education and in all-cause mortality overall. Age-adjusted comparisons between the population sample and sampling weighted participants were inconclusive for differences by sex; however, there were some large differences by educational attainment level. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of harms and mortality in non-participants exceed those in participants. Weighted participants' rates reflected those in the population well by age and sex, but insufficiently by educational attainment. Despite relatively high participation levels (85%), social differentiating factors and levels of harm and mortality were underestimated in the participants.

Association of serum cholesterol with coronary heart disease mortality during 50-year follow-up in ten cohorts of the seven countries study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The association of serum cholesterol levels with the occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality during a follow-up of 50 years was rarely investigated previously. Thus, we took advantage of results at hand in 10 pooled cohorts of men aged 40-59 years from the Seven Countries Study (9063 individuals and 2057 CHD fatal events) and we assessed this. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox proportional hazards models were run with CHD fatal events (as dependent variable) and cholesterol levels (as independent variables) at years 0, 10, and 25 (in 5 cohorts). Cumulative events during subsequent decades (cumulative approach: CA) and separately in each subsequent decade (partitioned approach: PA) were analyzed. The ecological correlation of average baseline serum cholesterol levels with CHD mortality was very high (R = 0.97). Serum cholesterol and CHD mortality for 50 years were associated at the individual level, and the association estimated by the Cox's coefficients (and related hazards ratios) was initially strong in both CA and PA, but slightly declined during later decades. Hazards ratios (for a difference of 40 mg/dl) ranged from 1.39 to 1.20 for CA and from 1.39 to 0.80 for PA. Coefficients were larger for CA than for PA and the decline was more evident for the latter. Partitioned coefficient became negative and significant in the last decade (from year 40-50). Coefficients derived from cholesterol levels measured at year 10 of follow-up showed similar trends but their magnitude was smaller. CONCLUSION: Thus, the relationship of serum cholesterol levels with CHD mortality remained relatively stable during at least 40 years after a single cholesterol measurement at baseline in middle-aged men.

Adjusting for non-response in the Finnish Drinking Habits Survey.

AIM: We aim to compare four different weighting methods to adjust for non-response in a survey on drinking habits and to examine whether the problem of under-coverage of survey estimates of alcohol use could be remedied by these methods in comparison to sales statistics. METHOD: The data from a general population survey of Finns aged 15-79 years in 2016 ( n=2285, response rate 60%) were used. Outcome measures were the annual volume of drinking and prevalence of hazardous drinking. A wide range of sociodemographic and regional variables from registers were available to model the non-response. Response propensities were modelled using logistic regression and random forest models to derive two sets of refined weights in addition to design weights and basic post-stratification weights. RESULTS: Estimated annual consumption changed from 2.43 litres of 100% alcohol using design weights to 2.36-2.44 when using the other three weights and the estimated prevalence of hazardous drinkers changed from 11.4% to 11.4-11.8%, correspondingly. The use of weights derived by the random forest method generally provided smaller estimates than use of the logistic regression-based weights. CONCLUSIONS: The use of complex non-response weights derived from the logistic regression model or random forest are not likely to provide much added value over more simple weights in surveys on alcohol use. Surveys may not catch heavy drinkers and therefore are prone for under-reporting of alcohol use at the population level. Also, factors other than sociodemographic characteristics are likely to influence participation decisions.

Recommendations for design and analysis of health examination surveys under selective non-participation.

Background: The decreasing participation rates and selective non-participation peril the representativeness of health examination surveys (HESs). Methods: Finnish HESs conducted in 1972-2012 are used to demonstrate that survey participation rates can be enhanced with well-planned recruitment procedures and auxiliary information about survey non-participants can be used to reduce selection bias. Results: Experiments incorporated to pilot surveys and experience from previously conducted surveys lead to practical improvements. For example, SMS reminders were taken as a routine procedure to the Finnish HESs after testing their effect on a pilot study and finding them as a cost-effective way to increase participation rate especially among younger age groups. Auxiliary information about survey non-participants can be obtained from many sources: sampling frames, previous measurements in longitudinal setting, re-contacts and non-response questionnaires, and record linkage to administrative data sources. These data can be used in statistical modelling to adjust the population level estimates for the selection bias. Information on the characteristics of non-participants also helps to improve targeting the recruitment in the future. Conclusion: All methods discussed and recommended are relatively easy to incorporate to any national HES in Europe except the record linkage of survey data from administrative data sources. This is not feasible in all European countries because of non-existence of registries, lack of an identifier needed for record linkage, or national data protection legislation which restricts the data use.

Differential self-report error by socioeconomic status in hypertension and hypercholesterolemia: INSEF 2015 study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to compare self-reported and examination-based prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia in Portugal in 2015 and to identify factors associated with the measurement error in self-reports. METHODS: We used data from the Portuguese National Health Examination Survey (n = 4911), that combines personal interview, blood collection and, physical examination. Sensitivity and specificity of self-reported hypertension and hypercholesterolemia were calculated. Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) of underreport of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia according to sex, age, socioeconomic status (education and income) and general practitioner (GP) consultation in the past year. RESULTS: Sensitivity of self-reports was 69.8% for hypertension and 38.2% for hypercholesterolemia. Underreport of hypertension was associated with male gender (PR = 1.54), lack of GP consultation (PR = 1.70) and being 25-44 years old (PR = 2.45) or 45-54 years old (PR = 2.37). Underreport of hypercholesterolemia was associated with lack of GP consultation (PR = 1.15), younger age (PR = 1.83 for 25-44 age group and PR = 1.52 for 45-54 age group), secondary (PR = 1.30) and higher (PR = 1.27) education. CONCLUSION: Self-reported data underestimate prevalence of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia. Magnitude of measurement error in self-reports varies by health conditions and population characteristics. Adding objective measurements to self-reported questionnaires improve data accuracy allowing better understanding of socioeconomic inequalities in health.

Age at death of major cardiovascular diseases in 13 cohorts. The seven countries study of cardiovascular diseases 45-year follow-up.

OBJECTIVES: To explore age at death (AD) for major cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and their risk factors in originally middle-aged men followed nearly to extinction in the Seven Countries Study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirteen cohorts of men aged 40-59 years (N = 10,628) in seven countries (USA, Finland, the Netherlands, Italy, Serbia, Greece, Japan) were enrolled in late 1950s and early 1960s and were followed 45 years for mortality. AD was computed for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke (STR), heart disease of uncertain aetiology (HDUE) and for all-causes. AD was compared across CHD-HDUE-STR. Cox models were computed for each end-point using baseline age, cigarettes smoking, systolic blood pressure and serum cholesterol. RESULTS: After 45 years 92.9% of men had died. The most common CVD death was CHD in most cohorts except some Mediterranean and Japanese cohorts where STR or HDUE were most prevalent. In 13 cohorts mean AD was 74.5, 73.5, 75.7 and 79.1 years, respectively, for all-cause, CHD, STR and HDUE mortality (all possible differences were significant). The difference, across cohorts, between the highest and the lowest mean AD was 12.9, 9.0 and 4.7 years for CHD, HDUE and STR mortality, respectively. Risk factors explored were significant predictors of all three CVD end-points, except serum cholesterol, specific to CHD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: AD is a useful indicator of previous health and aging populations. STR and HDUE are diseases appearing later in life, thus being associated with a higher AD compared with CHD mortality.