Severe COVID-19 outcomes after full vaccination of primary schedule and initial boosters: pooled analysis of national prospective cohort studies of 30 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Current UK vaccination policy is to offer future COVID-19 booster doses to individuals at high risk of serious illness from COVID-19, but it is still uncertain which groups of the population could benefit most. In response to an urgent request from the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we aimed to identify risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death) in individuals who had completed their primary COVID-19 vaccination schedule and had received the first booster vaccine. METHODS: We constructed prospective cohorts across all four UK nations through linkages of primary care, RT-PCR testing, vaccination, hospitalisation, and mortality data on 30 million people. We included individuals who received primary vaccine doses of BNT162b2 (tozinameran; Pfizer-BioNTech) or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in our initial analyses. We then restricted analyses to those given a BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 (elasomeran; Moderna) booster and had a severe COVID-19 outcome between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022 (when the omicron (B.1.1.529) variant was dominant). We fitted time-dependent Poisson regression models and calculated adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) and 95% CIs for the associations between risk factors and COVID-19-related hospitalisation or death. We adjusted for a range of potential covariates, including age, sex, comorbidities, and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Stratified analyses were conducted by vaccine type. We then did pooled analyses across UK nations using fixed-effect meta-analyses. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 28, 2022, 16 208 600 individuals completed their primary vaccine schedule and 13 836 390 individuals received a booster dose. Between Dec 20, 2021, and Feb 28, 2022, 59 510 (0·4%) of the primary vaccine group and 26 100 (0·2%) of those who received their booster had severe COVID-19 outcomes. The risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes reduced after receiving the booster (rate change: 8·8 events per 1000 person-years to 7·6 events per 1000 person-years). Older adults (≥80 years vs 18-49 years; aRR 3·60 [95% CI 3·45-3·75]), those with comorbidities (≥5 comorbidities vs none; 9·51 [9·07-9·97]), being male (male vs female; 1·23 [1·20-1·26]), and those with certain underlying health conditions-in particular, individuals receiving immunosuppressants (yes vs no; 5·80 [5·53-6·09])-and those with chronic kidney disease (stage 5 vs no; 3·71 [2·90-4·74]) remained at high risk despite the initial booster. Individuals with a history of COVID-19 infection were at reduced risk (infected ≥9 months before booster dose vs no previous infection; aRR 0·41 [95% CI 0·29-0·58]). INTERPRETATION: Older people, those with multimorbidity, and those with specific underlying health conditions remain at increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the initial vaccine booster and should, therefore, be prioritised for additional boosters, including novel optimised versions, and the increasing array of COVID-19 therapeutics. FUNDING: National Core Studies-Immunity, UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Health Data Research UK, the Scottish Government, and the University of Edinburgh.

Adverse events following first and second dose COVID-19 vaccination in England, October 2020 to September 2021: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

BackgroundPost-authorisation vaccine safety surveillance is well established for reporting common adverse events of interest (AEIs) following influenza vaccines, but not for COVID-19 vaccines.AimTo estimate the incidence of AEIs presenting to primary care following COVID-19 vaccination in England, and report safety profile differences between vaccine brands.MethodsWe used a self-controlled case series design to estimate relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the national sentinel network, the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. We compared AEIs (overall and by clinical category) 7 days pre- and post-vaccination to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021.ResultsWithin 7,952,861 records, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs, 4.85% within 7 days post-vaccination. Overall, medically attended AEIs decreased post-vaccination against background levels. There was a 3-7% decrease in incidence within 7 days after both doses of Comirnaty (RI: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94 and RI: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98, respectively) and Vaxzevria (RI: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98). A 20% increase was observed after one dose of Spikevax (RI: 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44). Fewer AEIs were reported as age increased. Types of AEIs, e.g. increased neurological and psychiatric conditions, varied between brands following two doses of Comirnaty (RI: 1.41; 95% CI: 1.28-1.56) and Vaxzevria (RI: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.97-1.78).ConclusionCOVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in medically attended AEI incidence. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, contributing to reporting vaccine safety.

First dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis: A pooled self-controlled case series study of 11.6 million individuals in England, Scotland, and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Several countries restricted the administration of ChAdOx1 to older age groups in 2021 over safety concerns following case reports and observed versus expected analyses suggesting a possible association with cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST). Large datasets are required to precisely estimate the association between Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination and CVST due to the extreme rarity of this event. We aimed to accomplish this by combining national data from England, Scotland, and Wales. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We created data platforms consisting of linked primary care, secondary care, mortality, and virological testing data in each of England, Scotland, and Wales, with a combined cohort of 11,637,157 people and 6,808,293 person years of follow-up. The cohort start date was December 8, 2020, and the end date was June 30, 2021. The outcome measure we examined was incident CVST events recorded in either primary or secondary care records. We carried out a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis of this outcome following first dose vaccination with ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2. The observation period consisted of an initial 90-day reference period, followed by a 2-week prerisk period directly prior to vaccination, and a 4-week risk period following vaccination. Counts of CVST cases from each country were tallied, then expanded into a full dataset with 1 row for each individual and observation time period. There was a combined total of 201 incident CVST events in the cohorts (29.5 per million person years). There were 81 CVST events in the observation period among those who a received first dose of ChAdOx1 (approximately 16.34 per million doses) and 40 for those who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (approximately 12.60 per million doses). We fitted conditional Poisson models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Vaccination with ChAdOx1 was associated with an elevated risk of incident CVST events in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 1.93 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 3.11). We did not find an association between BNT162b2 and CVST in the 28 days following vaccination, IRR = 0.78 (95% CI 0.34 to 1.77). Our study had some limitations. The SCCS study design implicitly controls for variables that are constant over the observation period, but also assumes that outcome events are independent of exposure. This assumption may not be satisfied in the case of CVST, firstly because it is a serious adverse event, and secondly because the vaccination programme in the United Kingdom prioritised the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions, which may have caused a selection effect for individuals more prone to CVST. Although we pooled data from several large datasets, there was still a low number of events, which may have caused imprecision in our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed a small elevated risk of CVST events following vaccination with ChAdOx1, but not BNT162b2. Our analysis pooled information from large datasets from England, Scotland, and Wales. This evidence may be useful in risk-benefit analyses of vaccine policies and in providing quantification of risks associated with vaccination to the general public.

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19. METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19-EAVE II-database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1-adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine. FINDINGS: Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85-94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75-94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72-89 at 28-34 days post-vaccination). INTERPRETATION: Mass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.

Depression and memory function - evidence from cross-lagged panel models with unit fixed effects in ELSA and HRS.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with depression are often found to perform worse on cognitive tests and to have an increased risk of dementia. The causes and the direction of these associations are however not well understood. We looked at two specific hypotheses, the aetiological risk factor hypothesis and the reverse causality hypothesis. METHOD: We analysed observational data from two cohorts, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and Health and Retirement Study (HRS), using cross-lagged panel models with unit fixed effects. Each model was run once with depression and repeated with cognition as the dependent variable and the other variable as the main explanatory variable. All models were estimated separately for contemporaneous effects and lagged effects up to 8 years in the past. We contrasted the results with models making the random effects assumption. RESULTS: Evidence from the fixed effects models is mixed. We find no evidence for the reverse causality hypothesis in ELSA and HRS. While there is no evidence for the aetiological risk factors hypothesis in ELSA, results from HRS indicate some effects. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that current levels of cognitive function do not influence future levels of depression. Results in HRS provide some evidence that current levels of depressive symptoms influence future cognition.

Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021.

IntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.

Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021.

We measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at primary care/outpatient level among adults ≥ 65 years old using a multicentre test-negative design in eight European countries. We included 592 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 4,372 test-negative controls in the main analysis. The VE was 62% (95% CI: 45-74) for one dose only and 89% (95% CI: 79-94) for complete vaccination. COVID-19 vaccines provide good protection against COVID-19 presentation at primary care/outpatient level, particularly among fully vaccinated individuals.

The Kids Insight into Dementia Survey (KIDS): development and preliminary psychometric properties.

OBJECTIVES: Children may have a foundational role in efforts to raise community awareness about dementia. There is some qualitative work with children with a relative with dementia, but little work into the insights of children as general citizens without affected family. One issue is an absence of measurement tools; thus the study aimed to design and pilot a psychometrically sound self-report measure of dementia attitudes for children. METHOD: Using a multi-staged scale development process, stakeholder and expert input informed a 52-item Kids Insight into Dementia Survey (KIDS). After a pretest of KIDS with 21 Australian schoolchildren aged 10-12 years, exploratory factor analysis and reliability and validity testing were run on a revised KIDS with data from 203 similar-aged schoolchildren. RESULTS: The KIDS was reduced from 52 to 14 items, and a three-factor solution identified: 'Personhood,' 'Stigma,' and 'Dementia Understanding.' A strong positive correlation with an adult measure of dementia attitudes (r = .76) and a moderate positive correlation with a child measure of attitudes towards older adults (r = .47) indicated good concurrent validity. Internal consistency of .83 indicated good reliability. CONCLUSION: Results support the use of KIDS as a tool to measure children's insight into dementia, and to evaluate dementia education initiatives targeting the youth.

Inflammation proteomic profiling of psychosis in young adults: Findings from the ALSPAC birth cohort.

Psychotic disorder is associated with altered levels of various inflammatory markers in blood, but existing studies have typically focused on a few selected biomarkers, have not examined specific symptom domains notably negative symptoms, and are based on individuals with established/chronic illness. Based on data from young people aged 24 years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK birth cohort, we have examined the associations of 67 plasma immune/inflammatory proteins assayed using the Olink Target 96 Inflammation panel with psychotic disorder, positive (any psychotic experiences and definite psychotic experiences) and negative symptoms, using linear models with empirical Bayes estimation. The analyses included between 2317 and 2854 individuals. After adjustment for age, sex, body mass index and smoking and correction for multiple testing, positive symptoms and psychotic disorder were consistently associated with upregulation of CDCP1 and IL-6, and psychotic disorder was additionally associated with upregulation of MMP-10. Negative symptoms were associated with upregulation of CDCP1 and TRAIL. CDCP1 and MMP-10 are novel markers of psychosis identified in this study, and are involved in immune regulation, immune cell activation/migration, blood-brain barrier disruption, and extracellular matrix abnormalities. Our findings highlight psychosis symptom domains have overlapping and distinct immune associations, and support a role of inflammation and immune dysfunction in the pathogenesis of psychosis.

Immunometabolic Blood Biomarkers of Developmental Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms: Findings From the ALSPAC Birth Cohort.

Studies of longitudinal trends of depressive symptoms in young people could provide insight into aetiologic mechanism, heterogeneity and origin of common cardiometabolic comorbidities for depression. Depression is associated with immunological and metabolic alterations, but immunometabolic characteristics of developmental trajectories of depressive symptoms remain unclear. Using depressive symptoms scores measured on 10 occasions between ages 10 and 25 years in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n=7302), we identified four distinct trajectories: low-stable (70% of the sample), adolescent-limited (13%), adulthood-onset (10%) and adolescent-persistent (7%). We examined associations of these trajectories with: i) anthropometric, cardiometabolic and psychiatric phenotypes using multivariable regression (n=1709-3410); ii) 67 blood immunological proteins and 57 metabolomic features using empirical Bayes moderated linear models (n=2059 and n=2240 respectively); and iii) 28 blood cell counts and biochemical measures using multivariable regression (n=2256). Relative to the low-stable group, risk of depression and anxiety in adulthood was higher for all other groups, especially in the adolescent-persistent (ORdepression=22.80, 95% CI 15.25-34.37; ORGAD=19.32, 95% CI 12.86-29.22) and adulthood-onset (ORdepression=7.68, 95% CI 5.31-11.17; ORGAD=5.39, 95% CI 3.65-7.94) groups. The three depression-related trajectories vary in their immunometabolic profile, with evidence of little or no alterations in the adolescent-limited group. The adulthood-onset group shows widespread classical immunometabolic changes (e.g., increased immune cell counts and insulin resistance), while the adolescent-persistent group is characterised by higher BMI both in childhood and adulthood with few other immunometabolic changes. These findings point to distinct mechanisms and intervention opportunities for adverse cardiometabolic profile in different groups of young people with depression.

Sydney Memory and Ageing Study: an epidemiological cohort study of brain ageing and dementia.

Non-demented community-dwelling older adults aged 70-90 years (n = 1,037) randomly recruited from the electoral roll completed neuropsychological and medical assessments over six years. The overall prevalence of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) at baseline was 36.7%. Risk factors for MCI include APOE ε4 allele carrier status, high homocysteine, heart disease, poor odour identification, low visual acuity and low mental activity, but notable age and sex differences were observed. Neuropsychiatric symptoms were rare; depression was the most common and was associated with cognitive impairment in at least one domain as well as subsequent dementia 2 years later. Poorer cognitively demanding functional abilities were associated with cognitive impairment. Biomarkers for cognitive impairment and decline were identified. Inflammatory markers and plasma apolipoprotein levels were associated with poorer performance in the attention/processing speed domain. Measures of white matter lesions, white matter integrity, sulcal morphology and tractography were identified as novel biomarkers of early cognitive decline. Stronger deactivation in the posteromedial cortex with increasing memory load on functional MRI predicted future decline. Compared to previous reports, our prevalence rates of MCI were higher but rates of progression to dementia and reversion to normal were similar, as were risk factors for progression to dementia.

Hepatitis B virus infection in general practice across England: An analysis of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre real-world database.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening and seropositivity within a network of 419 general practices representative of all regions of England. METHODS: Information was extracted using pseudonymized registration data. Predictors of HBsAg seropositivity were explored in models that considered age, gender, ethnicity, time at the current practice, practice location and associated deprivation index, and presence of nationally endorsed screen indicators including pregnancy, men who have sex with men (MSM), history of injecting drug use (IDU), close HBV contact or imprisonment, and diagnosis of blood-borne or sexually transmitted infections. RESULTS: Among 6,975,119 individuals, 192,639 (2.8 %) had a screening record, including 3.6-38.6 % of those with a screen indicator, and 8065 (0.12 %) had a seropositive record. The odds of seropositivity were highest in London, in the most deprived neighborhoods, among minority ethnic groups, and in people with screen indicators. Seroprevalence exceeded 1 % in people from high-prevalence countries, MSM, close HBV contacts, and people with a history of IDU or a recorded diagnosis of HIV, HCV, or syphilis. Overall, 1989/8065 (24.7 %) had a recorded referral to specialist hepatitis care. CONCLUSIONS: In England, HBV infection is associated with poverty. There are unrealized opportunities to promote access to diagnosis and care for those affected.

Development of a modified Cambridge Multimorbidity Score for use with SNOMED CT: an observational English primary care sentinel network study.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple health conditions are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and greater care and service needs; a reliable measure of multimorbidity would inform management strategies and resource allocation. AIM: To develop and validate a modified version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score in an extended age range, using clinical terms that are routinely used in electronic health records across the world (Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine - Clinical Terms, SNOMED CT). DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational study using diagnosis and prescriptions data from an English primary care sentinel surveillance network between 2014 and 2019. METHOD: In this study new variables describing 37 health conditions were curated and the associations modelled between these and 1-year mortality risk using the Cox proportional hazard model in a development dataset (n = 300 000). Two simplified models were then developed - a 20-condition model as per the original Cambridge Multimorbidity Score and a variable reduction model using backward elimination with Akaike information criterion as the stopping criterion. The results were compared and validated for 1-year mortality in a synchronous validation dataset (n = 150 000), and for 1-year and 5-year mortality in an asynchronous validation dataset (n = 150 000). RESULTS: The final variable reduction model retained 21 conditions, and the conditions mostly overlapped with those in the 20-condition model. The model performed similarly to the 37- and 20-condition models, showing high discrimination and good calibration following recalibration. CONCLUSION: This modified version of the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score allows reliable estimation using clinical terms that can be applied internationally across multiple healthcare settings.

COVID-19 booster vaccination uptake and infection breakthrough amongst health care workers in Wales: A national prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: From September 2021, Health Care Workers (HCWs) in Wales began receiving a COVID-19 booster vaccination. This is the first dose beyond the primary vaccination schedule. Given the emergence of new variants, vaccine waning vaccine, and increasing vaccination hesitancy, there is a need to understand booster vaccine uptake and subsequent breakthrough in this high-risk population. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, national-scale, observational cohort study of HCWs in Wales using anonymised, linked data from the SAIL Databank. We analysed uptake of COVID-19 booster vaccinations from September 2021 to February 2022, with comparisons against uptake of the initial primary vaccination schedule. We also analysed booster breakthrough, in the form of PCR-confirmed SARS-Cov-2 infection, comparing to the second primary dose. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate associations for vaccination uptake and breakthrough regarding staff roles, socio-demographics, household composition, and other factors. RESULTS: We derived a cohort of 73,030 HCWs living in Wales (78% female, 60% 18-49 years old). Uptake was quickest amongst HCWs aged 60 + years old (aHR 2.54, 95%CI 2.45-2.63), compared with those aged 18-29. Asian HCWs had quicker uptake (aHR 1.18, 95%CI 1.14-1.22), whilst Black HCWs had slower uptake (aHR 0.67, 95%CI 0.61-0.74), compared to white HCWs. HCWs residing in the least deprived areas were slightly quicker to have received a booster dose (aHR 1.12, 95%CI 1.09-1.16), compared with those in the most deprived areas. Strongest associations with breakthrough infections were found for those living with children (aHR 1.52, 95%CI 1.41-1.63), compared to two-adult only households. HCWs aged 60 + years old were less likely to get breakthrough infections, compared to those aged 18-29 (aHR 0.42, 95%CI 0.38-0.47). CONCLUSION: Vaccination uptake was consistently lower among black HCWs, as well as those from deprived areas. Whilst breakthrough infections were highest in households with children.

Waning of first- and second-dose ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccinations: a pooled target trial study of 12.9 million individuals in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines have been shown to provide protection against COVID-19 hospitalization and death. However, some evidence suggests that notable waning in effectiveness against these outcomes occurs within months of vaccination. We undertook a pooled analysis across the four nations of the UK to investigate waning in vaccine effectiveness (VE) and relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: We carried out a target trial design for first/second doses of ChAdOx1(Oxford-AstraZeneca) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) with a composite outcome of COVID-19 hospitalization or death over the period 8 December 2020 to 30 June 2021. Exposure groups were matched by age, local authority area and propensity for vaccination. We pooled event counts across the four UK nations. RESULTS: For Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1 and Dose 1 of BNT162b2, VE/rVE reached zero by approximately Days 60-80 and then went negative. By Day 70, VE/rVE was -25% (95% CI: -80 to 14) and 10% (95% CI: -32 to 39) for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, respectively, and 42% (95% CI: 9 to 64) and 53% (95% CI: 26 to 70) for Doses 1 and 2 of BNT162b2, respectively. rVE for Dose 2 of BNT162b2 remained above zero throughout and reached 46% (95% CI: 13 to 67) after 98 days of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence of waning in VE/rVE for Doses 1 and 2 of ChAdOx1, as well as Dose 1 of BNT162b2. This evidence may be used to inform policies on timings of additional doses of vaccine.

Adverse events after first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccination in England: a national vaccine surveillance platform self-controlled case series study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of adverse events of interest (AEIs) after receiving their first and second doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccinations, and to report the safety profile differences between the different COVID-19 vaccines. DESIGN: We used a self-controlled case series design to estimate the relative incidence (RI) of AEIs reported to the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners national sentinel network. We compared the AEIs that occurred seven days before and after receiving the COVID-19 vaccinations to background levels between 1 October 2020 and 12 September 2021. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals experiencing AEIs after receiving first and second doses of COVID-19 vaccines. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AEIs determined based on events reported in clinical trials and in primary care during post-license surveillance. RESULTS: A total of 7,952,861 individuals were vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines within the study period. Among them, 781,200 individuals (9.82%) presented to general practice with 1,482,273 AEIs. Within the first seven days post-vaccination, 4.85% of all the AEIs were reported. There was a 3-7% decrease in the overall RI of AEIs in the seven days after receiving both doses of Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (RI = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91-0.94) and 0.96; 95% CI: 0.94-0.98), respectively) and Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 (RI = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.95-0.98) for both doses), but a 20% increase after receiving the first dose of Moderna mRNA-1273 (RI = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.00-1.44)). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccines are associated with a small decrease in the incidence of medically attended AEIs. Sentinel networks could routinely report common AEI rates, which could contribute to reporting vaccine safety.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation and death of people in clinical risk groups during the Delta variant period: English primary care network cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines have been shown to be highly effective against hospitalisation and death following COVID-19 infection. COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness estimates against severe endpoints among individuals with clinical conditions that place them at increased risk of critical disease are limited. METHODS: We used English primary care medical record data from the Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network (N > 18 million). Data were linked to the National Immunisation Management Service database, Second Generation Surveillance System for virology test data, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. We estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against COVID-19 infection followed by hospitalisation and death among individuals in specific clinical risk groups using a cohort design during the delta-dominant period. We also report mortality statistics and results from our antibody surveillance in this population. FINDINGS: aVE against severe endpoints was high, 14-69d following a third dose aVE was 96.4% (95.1%-97.4%) and 97.9% (97.2%-98.4%) for clinically vulnerable people given a Vaxzevria and Comirnaty primary course respectively. Lower aVE was observed in the immunosuppressed group: 88.6% (79.1%-93.8%) and 91.9% (85.9%-95.4%) for Vaxzevria and Comirnaty respectively. Antibody levels were significantly lower among the immunosuppressed group than those not in this risk group across all vaccination types and doses. The standardised case fatality rate within 28 days of a positive test was 3.9/1000 in people not in risk groups, compared to 12.8/1000 in clinical risk groups. Waning aVE with time since 2nd dose was also demonstrated, for example, Comirnaty aVE against hospitalisation reduced from 96.0% (95.1-96.7%) 14-69days post-dose 2-82.9% (81.4-84.2%) 182days+ post-dose 2. INTERPRETATION: In all clinical risk groups high levels of vaccine effectiveness against severe endpoints were seen. Reduced vaccine effectiveness was noted among the immunosuppressed group.

Using informant reports to detect cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND: The use of informant rating scales in older adults at risk of dementia may assist with early detection and intervention strategies. This study aims to evaluate whether informants rate greater cognitive change in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) compared to cognitively intact individuals, and to determine the relationship between informant ratings of cognitive change and neuropsychological performance. METHODS: One hundred and nine health-seeking older adults underwent clinical and neuropsychological assessments, and informants completed the Cambridge Behavioral Inventory-Revised (CBI-R). Patients were rated according to MCI criteria, including amnestic and non-amnestic subtypes, or as being cognitively intact. CBI-R ratings were evaluated with respect to MCI diagnosis and neuropsychological performance. RESULTS: Compared to cognitively intact individuals, informants rated patients with MCI as having significantly more change in overall functioning (p < 0.05) as well as in specific domains of memory and orientation (p < 0.01), everyday skills (p < 0.05), and motivation (p < 0.05), even after controlling for depressive symptom severity. In further analyses, the non-amnestic MCI subgroup only had more informant-rated mood changes compared to the amnestic subgroup. In relation to neuropsychological performance, informant ratings were related to poorer visual memory, verbal learning and memory, language, and psychomotor speed, with correlations ranging from -0.19 to -0.43 (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that informants are sensitive to subtle early cognitive change in individuals with MCI, and that their ratings are related to objectively measured neuropsychological performance. Thus, the CBI-R may be valuable in assisting early screening and intervention processes.

The long arm of childhood socioeconomic deprivation on mid- to later-life cognitive trajectories: A cross-cohort analysis.

Introduction: Earlier studies of the effects of childhood socioeconomic status (SES) on later-life cognitive function consistently report a social gradient in later-life cognitive function. Evidence for their effects on cognitive decline is, however, less clear. Methods: The sample consists of 5324 participants in the Whitehall II study, 8572 in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), and 1413 in the Kame Project, who completed self-report questionnaires on their early life experiences and underwent repeated cognitive assessments. We characterized cognitive trajectories using latent class mixed models, and explored associations between childhood SES and latent class membership using logistic regressions. Results: We identified distinct trajectories classes for all cognitive measures examined. Childhood socioeconomic deprivation was associated with an increased likelihood of being in a lower trajectory class. Discussion: Our findings support the notions that cognitive aging is a heterogeneous process and early life circumstances may have lasting effects on cognition across the life-course.

Adverse Events of Interest Following Influenza Vaccination in the First Season of Adjuvanted Trivalent Immunization: Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination is the most effective form of prevention of seasonal influenza; the United Kingdom has a national influenza vaccination program to cover targeted population groups. Influenza vaccines are known to be associated with some common minor adverse events of interest (AEIs), but it is not known if the adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aTIV), first offered in the 2018/2019 season, would be associated with more AEIs than other types of vaccines. OBJECTIVE: We aim to compare the incidence of AEIs associated with different types of seasonal influenza vaccines offered in the 2018/2019 season. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective cohort study using computerized medical record data from the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre sentinel network database. We extracted data on vaccine exposure and consultations for European Medicines Agency-specified AEIs for the 2018/2019 influenza season. We used a self-controlled case series design; computed relative incidence (RI) of AEIs following vaccination; and compared the incidence of AEIs associated with aTIV, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, and the live attenuated influenza vaccine. We also compared the incidence of AEIs for vaccinations that took place in a practice with those that took place elsewhere. RESULTS: A total of 1,024,160 individuals received a seasonal influenza vaccine, of which 165,723 individuals reported a total of 283,355 compatible symptoms in the 2018/2019 season. Most AEIs occurred within 7 days following vaccination, with a seasonal effect observed. Using aTIV as the reference group, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine was associated with a higher incidence of AEIs (RI 1.46, 95% CI 1.41-1.52), whereas the live attenuated influenza vaccine was associated with a lower incidence of AEIs (RI 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.83). No effect of vaccination setting on the incidence of AEIs was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Routine sentinel network data offer an opportunity to make comparisons between safety profiles of different vaccines. Evidence that supports the safety of newer types of vaccines may be reassuring for patients and could help improve uptake in the future.