Faecal carriage, risk factors, acquisition and persistence of ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae in dogs and cats and co-carriage with humans belonging to the same household.

BACKGROUND: ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are observed in many reservoirs. Pets might play an important role in the dissemination of ESBL-E to humans since they live closely together. OBJECTIVES: To identify prevalence, risk factors, molecular characteristics, persistence and acquisition of ESBL-E in dogs and cats, and co-carriage in human-pet pairs belonging to the same household. METHODS: In a nationwide study, one person per household was randomly invited to complete a questionnaire and to submit a faecal sample. Dog and cat owners were invited to also submit a faecal sample from their pet. Repeated sampling after 1 and 6 months was performed in a subset. ESBL-E were obtained through selective culture and characterized by WGS. Logistic regression analyses and random forest models were performed to identify risk factors. RESULTS: The prevalence of ESBL-E carriage in these cohorts was 3.8% (95% CI: 2.7%-5.4%) for human participants (n=550), 10.7% (95% CI: 8.3%-13.7%) for dogs (n=555) and 1.4% (95% CI: 0.5%-3.8%) for cats (n=285). Among animals, blaCTX-M-1 was most abundant, followed by blaCTX-M-15. In dogs, persistence of carriage was 57.1% at 1 month and 42.9% at 6 months. Eating raw meat [OR: 8.8, 95% CI: 4.7-16.4; population attributable risk (PAR): 46.5%, 95% CI: 41.3%-49.3%] and dry food (OR: 0.2, 95% CI: 0.1-0.5; PAR: 56.5%, 95% CI: 33.2%-66.6%) were predictors for ESBL-E carriage in dogs. Human-dog co-carriage was demonstrated in five households. Human-cat co-carriage was not observed. CONCLUSIONS: ESBL-E prevalence was higher in dogs than in humans and lowest in cats. The main risk factor for ESBL-E carriage was eating raw meat. Co-carriage in dogs and household members was uncommon.

Seasonality in carriage of extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in the general population: a pooled analysis of nationwide cross-sectional studies.

Infections due to extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-E) are often preceded by asymptomatic carriage. Higher incidences in enteric infectious diseases during summer have been reported. Here, we assessed whether the presence of seasonality in intestinal ESBL-Escherichia coli/Klebsiella pneumoniae (ESBL-E/K) carriage in the general Dutch population exists. From 2014 to 2017, the faecal carriage of ESBL-E/K in healthy individuals was determined in three cross-sectional studies in the Netherlands, including 5985 subjects. Results were pooled to identify seasonal trends in prevalence (by month of sampling). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to calculate pooled odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results were adjusted for age, sex, antibiotic use and travel. Overall prevalence of ESBL-E/K carriage was 4.3% (n = 260 ESBL-E/K-positive), with differences between months ranging from 2.6% to 7.4%. Compared to January, the monthly prevalence of ESBL-E carriage was highest in August (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.49) and September (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.30-3.89). The observed monthly differences in ESBL-E/K carriage rates suggest that there is seasonal variation in exposure to ESBL-E/K other than due to travelling and antibiotic use. This should be taken into account in designing future ESBL-E prevalence studies in temperate regions.

Kinetics of serum antibodies in response to infection with Yersinia enterocolitica.

Information on the kinetics of the serum antibody response to infection with Yersinia enterocolitica is essential to allow the estimation and comparison of seroconversion rates in a diversity of pools of cross-sectional serum antibody measurements. Data from 94 patients with acute enteritis caused by Yersinia infection were used. The follow-up period for the longitudinal study was 36 months, addressed by questionnaire. An indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay method was adapted to determine the concentration of antibodies against Y. enterocolitica in human sera. A mathematical within-host model was used to describe the interaction between pathogen and immune system and the waning of immunity after clearing of the pathogen. All observed antibodies (IgG, IgM, IgA) reached peak levels shortly after infection and then decayed slowly indicating that the median levels decreased only little during the observation period. Estimated maximum peak antibody levels were highest in IgG. Seroresponse curves of all antibodies showed large individual variation between patients. There was no apparent pattern of variation with age, nor any notable difference between genders. Estimated half-times were very long for all antibodies, and their posterior distributions were highly skewed. IgA appeared to have the most persistent antibody response, compared with IgG and IgM. Median peak levels of all three antibodies were similar. There was no significance found between peak antibody levels and severity of symptoms of gastrointestinal infection and severity of joint pain. Our findings allow the use of cross-sectional serum antibody measurements as biomarkers, to estimate seroconversion rates. Such seroincidence estimates include asymptomatic seroconversions, thereby avoiding under-reporting, and allows the comparison of infection pressures among countries, independent of their healthcare and surveillance systems.

Intestinal carriage of ampicillin- and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium in humans, dogs and cats in the Netherlands.

Background: The prevalence of ampicillin- and/or vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (AREf and VREf) has increased in hospitalized patients in the Netherlands. Objectives: To quantify the prevalence, risk factors and co-carriage of AREf and VREf in humans, cats and dogs in the Dutch population. Methods: From 2014 to 2015, ∼2000 inhabitants of the Netherlands each month were randomly invited to complete a questionnaire and provide a faecal sample. Subjects owning pets were also asked to submit one dog or cat sample. Faecal samples were screened for AREf and VREf. The genetic relatedness of isolates was determined using core genome MLST. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors. Results: Of 25 365 subjects, 4721 (18.6%) completed the questionnaire and 1992 (42.2%) human, 277 dog and 118 cat samples were submitted. AREf was detected in 29 human (1.5%), 71 dog (25.6%) and 6 cat (5.1%) samples. VREf (vanA) was detected in one human and one dog. AREf/VREf co-carriage was not detected in 388 paired samples. The use of antibiotics (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.7-11.2) and proton pump inhibitors (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.3) were risk factors for AREf carriage in humans. In dogs, these were the use of antibiotics (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.6) and eating raw meat (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.4-6.6). Core genome MLST-based phylogenetic linkage indicated clonal relatedness for a minority of human (16.7%) and pet AREf isolates (23.8%) in three clusters. Conclusions: Intestinal carriage with AREf or VREf is rare in the Dutch general population. Although AREf carriage is high in dogs, phylogenetic linkage between human and pet AREf isolates was limited.

Long-term sequelae of sporadic cryptosporidiosis: a follow-up study.

To determine the frequency of occurrence of sequelae following cryptosporidiosis. A follow-up study was performed during a case-control study for sporadic cryptosporidiosis in the Netherlands (2013-2016). Cryptosporidiosis cases were invited to complete a follow-up questionnaire 4 months after diagnosis. Using a case-crossover study design, we compared the frequencies of reported symptoms 4 months after the acute phase to those reported 4 months before the onset of illness and during illness. Frequencies of symptoms in the pre- to post-infection phases were also compared with those of a population control group. Cryptosporidium species-specific effects were also studied. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for symptoms occurrence. Of the 731 available cases, 443 (60%) responded and 308 (42%) could be included in the follow-up study. The median age was 26 years (range 1-80); 58% were female; 30% were infected with C. hominis and 70% with C. parvum. Compared to before illness, cases were significantly more likely to report dizziness (OR = 2.25), headache (OR = 2.15), fatigue (OR = 2.04), weight loss (OR = 1.82), diarrhoea (OR = 1.50), abdominal pain (OR = 1.38) or joint pain (OR = 1.84). However, symptoms of joint pain and headache occurred among cases after illness at a rate that was not significantly different from that observed in the general population. There were no significant differences in post-infection symptom occurrence between C. hominis and C. parvum. The disease burden of cryptosporidiosis extends beyond the acute phase of the infection, with cases reporting both intestinal and extra-intestinal symptoms up to 4 months following infection.

ESBL/AmpC-producing Enterobacteriaceae in households with children of preschool age: prevalence, risk factors and co-carriage.

OBJECTIVES: ESBL/AmpC-producing Enterobacteriaceae are an emerging public health concern. As households with preschool children may substantially contribute to the community burden of antimicrobial resistance, we determined the prevalence, risk factors and co-carriage of ESBL/AmpC-producing bacteria in preschool children and their parents. METHODS: From April 2013 to January 2015, each month 2000 preschool children were randomly selected from Dutch population registries. The parents were invited to complete an epidemiological questionnaire and to obtain and send a faecal sample from the selected child and from one parent. Samples were tested for ESBL/AmpC-producing bacteria. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for ESBL/AmpC carriage in children and parents, and findings were internally validated by bootstrapping. RESULTS: In total, 1016 families were included and ESBL/AmpC prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI 3.2%-5.0%); 3.5% (95% CI 2.5%-4.8%) in children and 4.5% (95% CI 3.4%-6.0%) in parents. Attending a daycare centre (DCC) was the only significant risk factor for children (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.0-4.3). For parents, the only significant risk factor was having one or more children attending DCCs (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-4.8). For parents of ESBL/AmpC-positive children the OR for ESBL/AmpC carriage was 19.7 (95% CI 9.2-42.4). Co-carriage of specific ESBL/AmpC genotypes in child and parent occurred more often than expected by chance (14.6% versus 1.1%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, intestinal carriage with ESBL/AmpCs was detected in ∼4% of households with preschool children. DCC attendance was a risk factor in both children and parents and co-carriage of specific genotypes frequently occurred in child-parent pairs. These findings suggest household transmission or/and family-specific exposure to common sources of ESBL/AmpC-producing bacteria.

Outbreak of diarrhoea among participants of a triathlon and a duathlon on 12 July 2015 in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

On 12 July 2015, a triathlon competition with 900 participants took place in Utrecht, the Netherlands. An outbreak investigation was initiated after 56 participants reported health complaints. An online questionnaire was sent to 700 participants. Stool specimens from six participants and four water specimens were collected from the swimming location. A total of 239 participants completed the questionnaire (response rate: 34%), 73 (31%) of them met the case definition for acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI). A total of 67% of the respondents were male and the median age was 38 years. Almost half (42%) of swimmers reported health complaints. Consumption of energy drinks and ingesting ⩾3 mouthfuls of canal water were identified as risk factors for AGI among swimmers only (adjusted relative risks (aRR) 1·6; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·0-2·5 and aRR 2·6; 95% CI 1·5-4·8). The collected water specimens tested positive for norovirus genogroup I and rotavirus and stool specimens tested positive for norovirus genogroup II. Our findings indicate that the outbreak could have been caused by exposure to norovirus during swimming. Swimmers should get information about the health risks for making an informed choice about participating. For future events, the organisers decided to change the swimming location from a canal to a recreational lake.

Different risk factors for infection with Giardia lamblia assemblages A and B in children attending day-care centres.

Giardia lamblia is a major cause of diarrhoea in children, especially those attending day-care centres (DCCs). Only Giardia assemblages A and B infect humans. Given the lack of assemblage-specific epidemiological data, we aimed to identify risk factors for infection by assemblages A and B in DCC attendees. During 2010-2013, 5,015 faecal samples from ≤4-year-old children attending 40 DCCs participating in laboratory surveillance in the Netherlands were tested for Giardia using RT-PCR. Giardia-positive samples were typed for identification of assemblages A and B. We compared child- and DCC-level characteristics of Giardia-positive children with those of Giardia-negative children using mixed-effects logistic regression. Overall, 226 samples (4.5 %) tested positive for Giardia, and assemblages were determined for 138 of them: 62 (45 %) were assemblage A and 76 (55 %) were B. The only risk factor for assemblage A infection was attending DCCs with indoor sandpits and cats during spring/summer (odds ratio [OR] 13.5; 95% CI 1.8-101.3). For assemblage B, risk factors were attending DCCs with dedicated diaper-changing (OR 3.6; 95% CI 1.7-7.6) and laundry (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-4.9) areas. Preventing sick children from attending day-care and having cloth-towels at the DCC decreased the risk of assemblage B infection (OR 0.0; 95% CI 0.0-0.5 and OR 0.3; 95% CI 0.1-0.6 respectively). Risk factors for assemblages A and B infection in DCC-attending children were different, with assemblage B being mainly related to anthroponotic transmission, and assemblage A being related to zoonotic transmission. Given these differences, interventions to reduce the burden of childhood giardiasis cannot ignore those assemblage-specific preferred reservoirs and transmission routes.

Potential causative agents of acute gastroenteritis in households with preschool children: prevalence, risk factors, clinical relevance and household transmission.

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) morbidity remains high amongst preschool children, posing a significant societal burden. Empirical data on AGE-causing agents is needed to gauge their clinical relevance and identify agent-specific targets for control. We assessed the prevalence, risk factors and association with symptoms for enteropathogens in households with preschool children. A monthly-repeated cross-sectional survey of enteropathogens in households with preschool children was performed. A parent-child pair per household (n = 907 households) provided faecal samples and reported their symptoms and potential risk exposures. Samples were tested by multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for 19 enteropathogens. Associations were assessed using logistic regression. 28.3 % of children (n = 981) and 15.6 % of parents (n = 971) carried pathogenic bacteria and/or Escherichia coli-associated pathogenicity genes, and 6.5 % and 3.3 % carried viruses, respectively. Giardia lamblia (4.6 % of children, 2.5 % of parents) and Dientamoeba fragilis (36 %, 39 %, respectively) were the main parasites, and were associated with pet exposure. Living in rural areas was associated with carriage of pathogenic E. coli, norovirus I and D. fragilis. Pathogenic E. coli was associated with summertime and livestock exposure. Attending day-care centres increased the risk of carrying norovirus, sapovirus and G. lamblia. Viruses occurred mainly in winter and were associated with AGE symptoms. Child-parent associations were found for bacterial pathogenicity genes, viruses, G. lamblia and D. fragilis. Enteropathogens spread widely in households with preschool children, particularly viruses, which more often cause symptoms. While bacteria predominate during summer and in those exposed to livestock, viruses predominate in wintertime and, like G. lamblia, are widespread amongst day-care centre attendees.

Characteristics of child daycare centres associated with clustering of major enteropathogens.

Insights into transmission dynamics of enteropathogens in children attending daycare are limited. Here we aimed at identifying daycare centre (DCC) characteristics associated with time-clustered occurrence of enteropathogens in DCC-attending children. For this purpose, we used the KIzSS network, which comprises 43 DCCs that participated in infectious disease surveillance in The Netherlands during February 2010-February 2013. Space-time scan statistics were used to identify clusters of rotavirus, norovirus, astrovirus, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium spp. in a two-dimensional DCC characteristic space constructed using canonical correlation analysis. Logistic regression models were then used to further identify DCC characteristics associated with increased or decreased odds for clustering of enteropathogens. Factors associated with increased odds for enteropathogen clustering in DCCs were having indoor/outdoor paddling pools or sandpits, owning animals, high numbers of attending children, and reporting outbreaks to local health authorities. Factors associated with decreased odds for enteropathogen clustering in DCCs were cleaning child potties in designated waste disposal stations, cleaning vomit with chlorine-based products, daily cleaning of toys, extra cleaning of toys during a suspected outbreak, and excluding children with gastroenteritis. These factors provide targets for reducing the burden of gastrointestinal morbidity associated with time-clustered occurrence of major enteropathogens in DCC attendees.

Gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness and dermatological complaints following exposure to floodwater: a cross-sectional survey in The Netherlands.

Extreme rainfall events may cause pluvial flooding, increasing the transmission of several waterborne pathogens. However, the risk of experiencing clinically overt infections following exposure to pluvial floodwater is poorly estimated. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed to quantify the occurrence of self-reported gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness (ILI) and dermatological complaints, and the frequency of visits to the general practitioner (GP), during a 4-week observation period following pluvial flooding at seven locations in The Netherlands. Questionnaires were sent to 817 flooded households, 149 (17%) of which returned the questionnaire reporting information for 199 participants. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with increased occurrence of gastrointestinal [odds ratio (OR 4·44)], ILI (OR 2·75) and dermatological (OR 6·67) complaints, and GP visits (OR 2·72). Having hand contact with floodwater was associated with gastrointestinal and dermatological complaints, whereas ILI complaints were associated with being engaged in post-flooding cleaning operations and having walked/cycled through floodwater. This study shows that floodwater-associated diseases occur in urban settings following extreme rainfall events in a high-income country. As pluvial floods are expected to escalate in the future due to global climate change, further research is warranted to determine the disease burden of pluvial flooding and to assess the effect of different interventions, including raising awareness among stakeholders.

The diagnostic accuracy of serological tests for Lyme borreliosis in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Interpretation of serological assays in Lyme borreliosis requires an understanding of the clinical indications and the limitations of the currently available tests. We therefore systematically reviewed the accuracy of serological tests for the diagnosis of Lyme borreliosis in Europe. METHODS: We searched EMBASE en MEDLINE and contacted experts. Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of serological assays for Lyme borreliosis in Europe were eligible. Study selection and data-extraction were done by two authors independently. We assessed study quality using the QUADAS-2 checklist. We used a hierarchical summary ROC meta-regression method for the meta-analyses. Potential sources of heterogeneity were test-type, commercial or in-house, Ig-type, antigen type and study quality. These were added as covariates to the model, to assess their effect on test accuracy. RESULTS: Seventy-eight studies evaluating an Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent assay (ELISA) or an immunoblot assay against a reference standard of clinical criteria were included. None of the studies had low risk of bias for all QUADAS-2 domains. Sensitivity was highly heterogeneous, with summary estimates: erythema migrans 50% (95% CI 40% to 61%); neuroborreliosis 77% (95% CI 67% to 85%); acrodermatitis chronica atrophicans 97% (95% CI 94% to 99%); unspecified Lyme borreliosis 73% (95% CI 53% to 87%). Specificity was around 95% in studies with healthy controls, but around 80% in cross-sectional studies. Two-tiered algorithms or antibody indices did not outperform single test approaches. CONCLUSIONS: The observed heterogeneity and risk of bias complicate the extrapolation of our results to clinical practice. The usefulness of the serological tests for Lyme disease depends on the pre-test probability and subsequent predictive values in the setting where the tests are being used. Future diagnostic accuracy studies should be prospectively planned cross-sectional studies, done in settings where the test will be used in practice.

Risk factors for gastroenteritis in child day care.

The child day-care centre (DCC) is often considered as one risk factor for gastroenteritis (GE) rather than a complex setting in which the interplay of many factors may influence the epidemiology of GE. This study aimed to identify DCC-level risk factors for GE and major enteropathogen occurrence. A dynamic network of 100 and 43 DCCs participated in a syndromic and microbiological surveillance during 2010-2013. The weekly incidence of GE events and weekly prevalence of five major enteropathogens (rotavirus, norovirus, astrovirus, Giardia lamblia, Cryptosporidium hominis/parvum) were modelled per DCC using mixed-effects negative binomial/Poisson regression models. Sixteen hundred children were surveyed up to 3 years, during which 1829 GE episodes were reported and 5197 faecal samples were analysed. Identified risk factors were: large DCC capacity, crowding, having animals, nappy changing areas, sandpits, paddling pools, cleaning potties in normal sinks, cleaning vomit with paper towels (but without cleaner), mixing of staff between child groups, and staff members with multiple daily duties. Protective factors were: disinfecting fomites with chlorine, cleaning vomit with paper towels (and cleaner), daily cleaning of bed linen/toys, cohorting and exclusion policies for ill children and staff. Targeting these factors may reduce the burden of DCC-related GE.

Risk factors for sporadic Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 and non-O157 illness in The Netherlands, 2008-2012, using periodically surveyed controls.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections have been associated with severe illness. Ruminants are seen as the main reservoir and the major transmission route is considered to be foodborne. In The Netherlands, a case-control study was conducted, using data collected during 2008-2012. Patients were interviewed and controls completed a self-administered questionnaire. Patients travelling abroad were excluded from the analyses. STEC O157 and non-O157 were examined separately and differentiated into two age groups (<10 years, ⩾10 years). We included 130 O157 cases, 78 non-O157 cases and 1563 controls. In both age groups of O157 patients, raw spreadable sausage was the main risk factor for infection. For STEC non-O157 cases aged <10 years, contact with farm animals was the main risk factor and in non-O157 cases aged ⩾10 years, consumption of beef was the main risk factor. During 2008-2012, risk factors for STEC infections in the Dutch population differed between age groups and serogroup categories, and were related to eating meat and contact with farm animals. Advising the public about the risks of consuming raw or undercooked meat (products) and hygiene habits in case of contact with farm animals, could help in the prevention of STEC infections.

Risk factors for sporadic listeriosis in the Netherlands, 2008 to 2013.

Although the disease burden of listeriosis on population level is low, on individual level the impact is high, largely due to severe illness and a high case fatality. Identification of risk factors supports and specifies public health actions needed for prevention. We performed a case­control study to determine host- and food-related risk factors for non-perinatal listeriosis in the Netherlands. Patients with non-perinatal listeriosis reported between July 2008 and December 2013 were compared with controls from a periodic control survey who completed a questionnaire in the same period. Higher age, male sex, underlying disease, especially cancer and kidney disease, and use of immunosuppressive medicine were strong risk factors for acquiring non-perinatal listeriosis. Analysis of the food consumption in the group of cases and controls with underlying diseases did not reveal any high-risk food products. Information and advice should continue to be given to persons at risk of severe listeriosis. Univariate analyses indicate that patients using gastric acid inhibitors are at risk. It is worth adding these patients to the group of susceptible persons.

General practitioner reported incidence of Lyme carditis in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Between 1994 and 2009, incidence rates of general practitioner (GP) consultations for tick bites and erythema migrans, the most common early manifestation of Lyme borreliosis, have increased substantially in the Netherlands. The current article aims to estimate and validate the incidence of GP-reported Lyme carditis in the Netherlands. METHODS: We sent a questionnaire to all GPs in the Netherlands on clinical diagnoses of Lyme borreliosis in 2009 and 2010. To validate and adjust the obtained incidence rate, medical records of cases of Lyme carditis reported by GPs in this incidence survey were reviewed and categorised according to likelihood of the diagnosis of Lyme carditis. RESULTS: Lyme carditis occurred in 0.2 % of all patients with GP-reported Lyme borreliosis. The adjusted annual incidence was six GP-reported cases of Lyme carditis per 10 million inhabitants, i.e. approximately ten cases per year in 2009 and 2010. CONCLUSIONS: We report the first incidence estimate for Lyme carditis in the Netherlands, validated by a systematic review of the medical records. Although Lyme carditis is an uncommon manifestation of Lyme borreliosis, physicians need to be aware of this diagnosis, in particular in countries where the incidence of Lyme borreliosis has increased during the past decades.

Campylobacteriosis in returning travellers and potential secondary transmission of exotic strains.

SUMMARY: Multilocus sequence types (STs) were determined for 232 and 737 Campylobacter jejuni/coli isolates from Dutch travellers and domestically acquired cases, respectively. Putative risk factors for travel-related campylobacteriosis, and for domestically acquired campylobacteriosis caused by exotic STs (putatively carried by returning travellers), were investigated. Travelling to Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Southern Europe significantly increased the risk of acquiring campylobacteriosis compared to travelling within Western Europe. Besides eating chicken, using antacids, and having chronic enteropathies, we identified eating vegetable salad outside Europe, drinking bottled water in high-risk destinations, and handling/eating undercooked pork as possible risk factors for travel-related campylobacteriosis. Factors associated with domestically acquired campylobacteriosis caused by exotic STs involved predominantly person-to-person contacts around popular holiday periods. We concluded that putative determinants of travel-related campylobacteriosis differ from those of domestically acquired infections and that returning travellers may carry several exotic strains that might subsequently spread to domestic populations even through limited person-to-person transmission.

Attribution of human Salmonella infections to animal and food sources in Italy (2002-2010): adaptations of the Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models.

The Dutch and modified Hald source attribution models were adapted to Italian Salmonella data to attribute human infections caused by the top 30 serotypes between 2002 and 2010 to four putative sources (Gallus gallus, turkeys, pigs, ruminants), at the points of animal reservoir (farm), exposure (food), and both combined. Attribution estimates were thus compared between different models, time periods and sampling points. All models identified pigs as the main source of human salmonellosis in Italy, accounting for 43-60% of infections, followed by G. gallus (18-34%). Attributions to turkeys and ruminants were minor. An increasing temporal trend in attributions to pigs and a decreasing one in those to G. gallus was also observed. Although the outcomes of the two models applied at farm and food levels essentially agree, they can be refined once more information becomes available, providing valuable insights about potential targets along the production chain.

Potential association between the recent increase in campylobacteriosis incidence in the Netherlands and proton-pump inhibitor use - an ecological study.

The Netherlands saw an unexplained increase in campylobacteriosis incidence between 2003 and 2011, following a period of continuous decrease. We conducted an ecological study and found a statistical association between campylobacteriosis incidence and the annual number of prescriptions for proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), controlling for the patient's age, fresh and frozen chicken purchases (with or without correction for campylobacter prevalence in fresh poultry meat). The effect of PPIs was larger in the young than in the elderly. However, the counterfactual population-attributable fraction for PPIs was largest for the elderly (ca 45% in 2011) and increased at population level from 8% in 2004 to 27% in 2011. Using the regression model and updated covariate values, we predicted a trend break for 2012, largely due to a decreased number of PPI prescriptions, that was subsequently confirmed by surveillance data. Although causality was not shown, the biological mechanism, age effect and trend-break prediction suggest a substantial impact of PPI use on campylobacteriosis incidence in the Netherlands. We chose the ecological study design to pilot whether it is worthwhile to further pursue the effect of PPI on campylobacteriosis and other gastrointestinal pathogens in prospective cohort studies. We now provide strong arguments to do so.

Exceptionally low rotavirus incidence in the Netherlands in 2013/14 in the absence of rotavirus vaccination.

An unexpected drop in rotavirus (RV) detections was observed in the Netherlands in 2014, without RV vaccination. The estimated decrease in RV detections and gastroenteritis consultations in under five year-olds, in January-April 2014, compared to the same months in previous years, was 72% and 36%, respectively. The low birth rate, mild winter, high RV incidence in the previous year and the introduction of RV vaccination in neighbouring countries may have contributed to this decrease.