Accounting for epistasis improves genomic prediction of phenotypes with univariate and bivariate models across environments.

KEY MESSAGE: The accuracy of genomic prediction of phenotypes can be increased by including the top-ranked pairwise SNP interactions into the prediction model. We compared the predictive ability of various prediction models for a maize dataset derived from 910 doubled haploid lines from two European landraces (Kemater Landmais Gelb and Petkuser Ferdinand Rot), which were tested at six locations in Germany and Spain. The compared models were Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) as an additive model, Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (ERRBLUP) accounting for all pairwise SNP interactions, and selective Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (sERRBLUP) accounting for a selected subset of pairwise SNP interactions. These models have been compared in both univariate and bivariate statistical settings for predictions within and across environments. Our results indicate that modeling all pairwise SNP interactions into the univariate/bivariate model (ERRBLUP) is not superior in predictive ability to the respective additive model (GBLUP). However, incorporating only a selected subset of interactions with the highest effect variances in univariate/bivariate sERRBLUP can increase predictive ability significantly compared to the univariate/bivariate GBLUP. Overall, bivariate models consistently outperform univariate models in predictive ability. Across all studied traits, locations and landraces, the increase in prediction accuracy from univariate GBLUP to univariate sERRBLUP ranged from 5.9 to 112.4 percent, with an average increase of 47 percent. For bivariate models, the change ranged from -0.3 to + 27.9 percent comparing the bivariate sERRBLUP to the bivariate GBLUP, with an average increase of 11 percent. This considerable increase in predictive ability achieved by sERRBLUP may be of interest for "sparse testing" approaches in which only a subset of the lines/hybrids of interest is observed at each location.

Genomic prediction using information across years with epistatic models and dimension reduction via haplotype blocks.

The importance of accurate genomic prediction of phenotypes in plant breeding is undeniable, as higher prediction accuracy can increase selection responses. In this regard, epistasis models have shown to be capable of increasing the prediction accuracy while their high computational load is challenging. In this study, we investigated the predictive ability obtained in additive and epistasis models when utilizing haplotype blocks versus pruned sets of SNPs by including phenotypic information from the last growing season. This was done by considering a single biological trait in two growing seasons (2017 and 2018) as separate traits in a multi-trait model. Thus, bivariate variants of the Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) as an additive model, Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (ERRBLUP) and selective Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (sERRBLUP) as epistasis models were compared with respect to their prediction accuracies for the second year. The prediction accuracies of bivariate GBLUP, ERRBLUP and sERRBLUP were assessed with eight phenotypic traits for 471/402 doubled haploid lines in the European maize landrace Kemater Landmais Gelb/Petkuser Ferdinand Rot. The results indicate that the obtained prediction accuracies are similar when utilizing a pruned set of SNPs or haplotype blocks, while utilizing haplotype blocks reduces the computational load significantly compared to the pruned sets of SNPs. The number of interactions considered in the model was reduced from 323.5/456.4 million for the pruned SNP panel to 4.4/5.5 million in the haplotype block dataset for Kemater and Petkuser landraces, respectively. Since the computational load scales linearly with the number of parameters in the model, this leads to a reduction in computational time of 98.9% from 13.5 hours for the pruned set of markers to 9 minutes for the haplotype block dataset. We further investigated the impact of genomic correlation, phenotypic correlation and trait heritability as factors affecting the bivariate models' prediction accuracy, identifying the genomic correlation between years as the most influential one. As computational load is substantially reduced, while the accuracy of genomic prediction is unchanged, the here proposed framework to use haplotype blocks in sERRBLUP provided a solution for the practical implementation of sERRBLUP in real breeding programs. Furthermore, our results indicate that sERRBLUP is not only suitable for prediction across different locations, but also for the prediction across growing seasons.

Phenotype Prediction Under Epistasis.

Reliable methods of phenotype prediction from genomic data play an increasingly important role in many areas of plant and animal breeding. Thus, developing methods that enhance prediction accuracy is of major interest. Here, we provide three methods for this purpose: (1) Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) as a model just accounting for additive SNP effects; (2) Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (ERRBLUP) as a full epistatic model which incorporates all pairwise SNP interactions, and (3) selective Epistatic Random Regression BLUP (sERRBLUP) as an epistatic model which incorporates a subset of pairwise SNP interactions selected based on their absolute effect sizes or the effect variances, which is computed based on solutions from the ERRBLUP model. We compared the predictive ability obtained from GBLUP, ERRBLUP, and sERRBLUP with genotypes from a publicly available wheat dataset and respective simulated phenotypes. Results showed that sERRBLUP provides a substantial increase in prediction accuracy compared to the other methods when the optimal proportion of SNP interactions is kept in the model, especially when an optimal proportion of SNP interactions is selected based on the SNP interaction effect sizes. All methods described here are implemented in the R-package EpiGP, which is able to process large-scale genomic data in a computationally efficient way.