Safe System approach for cyclists in the Netherlands: Towards zero fatalities and serious injuries?

More than one third of all road deaths in the Netherlands and more than two thirds of seriously injured casualties are cyclists. In recent years these shares have increased, despite the fact that the implementation of Safe System principles has been leading in road safety policy and has been successful in reducing the total number of road deaths. However, the annual number of fatalities among cyclists failed to decline and the number of injuries among cyclists has been increasing, especially in single-bicycle crashes. This raises the question why until now Safe System implementation has failed to contribute to the reduction of the number of casualties among cyclists. This question is urgent because of the goal to reduce the number of road deaths and serious traffic injuries in the Netherlands to (virtually) ZERO by 2050. This ambition is in line with the objectives of the European Union. The causes of the unfavourable developments in road safety for cyclists in the Netherlands and which problems require a solution are examined. This raises two questions: can improved implementation of Safe System measures reverse the negative trend, and can this result in ZERO cycling casualties in the future. The discussion involves investigating three dimensions: exposure, crash risk, and injury risk. The opportunities that technological developments may offer in future decades are also considered. It is concluded that Safe System implementation will include opportunities to make cycling considerably safer in the Netherlands. However, we face too many uncertainties to allow for developing scenarios that show how close the Netherlands will be to ZERO cyclists casualties.

Design guidelines for turbulence in traffic on Dutch motorways.

Over the years the characteristics of traffic on Dutch motorways has changed, but its design guidelines did not develop as rapidly and large parts remain unchanged since the first guidelines from the 1970s. During the latest revision of the Dutch motorway design guidelines it became clear that a solid and comprehensive theoretical, or evidence based, background was lacking for the validity of the prescribed ramp spacing and required length for weaving segments. This article presents the underpinning of revising the Dutch design manual for motorways for turbulence in traffic. For this study loop detector data at eight on-ramps and five off-ramps were collected as well as empirical trajectory data at fourteen different on-ramps (three), off-ramps (three) and weaving segments (eight) in The Netherlands. The results show that the areas around ramps that are influenced by turbulence are smaller than described in the design manuals and that, in their present form, the microscopic simulation software packages VISSIM and MOTUS fail to simulate the number and location of lane-changes around ramps realistically.

How did the economic recession (2008-2010) influence traffic fatalities in OECD-countries?

This paper presents analyses of how the economic recession that started in 2008 has influenced the number of traffic fatalities in OECD countries. Previous studies of the relationship between economic recessions and changes in the number of traffic fatalities are reviewed. Based on these studies, a causal diagram of the relationship between changes of the business cycle and changes in the number of traffic fatalities is proposed. This causal model is tested empirically by means of multivariate analyses and analyses of accident statistics for Great Britain and Sweden. Economic recession, as indicated both by slower growth of, or decline of gross national product, and by increased unemployment is associated with an accelerated decline in the number of traffic fatalities, i.e. a larger decline than the long-term trend that is normal in OECD countries. The principal mechanisms bringing this about are a disproportionate reduction of driving among high-risk drivers, in particular young drivers and a reduction of fatality rate per kilometre of travel, probably attributable to changes in road user behaviour that are only partly observable. The total number of vehicle kilometres of travel did not change very much as a result of the recession. The paper is based on an ITF-report that presents the analyses in greater detail.

The effects of cyclists present at rural intersections on speed behavior and workload of car drivers: a driving simulator study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to gain insight into how the number of cyclists, the cyclist's approach direction, and the cyclist's action affect the speed and mental workload of drivers approaching rural intersections. In addition, the effects of a speed-reducing measure on the interaction between cyclists and motorized traffic were examined. METHODS: An experiment was conducted in a moving-base driving simulator. Thirty participants completed 3 runs each in 3 conditions: a baseline, a plateau, and a chicane condition. Participants drove an 80 km/h rural distributor road with 8 intersections. Eight cyclist scenarios were developed varying in the number of cyclists and the direction from which they approached the participants' lane. The Peripheral Detection Task was used to measure workload objectively and continuously. RESULTS: A plateau ahead of the intersection resulted in drivers entering the bicycle crossing with lower driving speeds but did not result in less serious potential conflicts compared to intersections without the speed-reducing measure. With respect to the presence of cyclists, drivers approaching the intersection without cyclists reached a minimum speed at a greater distance from the bicycle crossing compared to approaching the intersection with multiple cyclists in the baseline condition. At intersections with plateaus, drivers drove slower when encountering multiple cyclists compared to no cyclists. At intersections without the speed-reducing measure, drivers drove slower, decelerated stronger, and decelerated at a shorter distance to the bicycle crossing when encountering a suddenly crossing cyclist compared to a yielding cyclist. CONCLUSIONS: Although drivers have the right of way at rural intersections, drivers' speed behavior was affected by the number and action of cyclists. From a road safety point of view, driving speeds at rural intersections need to be further reduced to limit the seriousness of potential conflicts between cyclists and motorized traffic.

A conceptual framework for road safety and mobility applied to cycling safety.

Scientific literature lacks a model which combines exposure to risk, risk, and the relationship between them. This paper presents a conceptual road safety framework comprising mutually interacting factors for exposure to risk resulting from travel behaviour (volumes, modal split, and distribution of traffic over time and space) and for risk (crash and injury risk). The framework's three determinants for travel behaviour are locations of activities; resistances (generalized transport costs); needs, opportunities, and abilities. Crash and injury risks are modelled by the three 'safety pillars': infrastructure, road users and the vehicles they use. Creating a link in the framework between risk and exposure is important because of the 'non-linear relationship' between them, i.e. risk tends to decrease as exposure increases. Furthermore, 'perceived' risk (a type of travel resistance) plays a role in mode choice, i.e. the perception that a certain type of vehicle is unsafe can be a deterrent to its use. This paper uses theories to explain how the elements in the model interact. Cycling is an area where governments typically have goals for both mobility and safety. To exemplify application of the model, the paper uses the framework to link research on cycling (safety) to land use and infrastructure. The model's value lies in its ability to identify potential consequences of measures and policies for both exposure and risk. This is important from a scientific perspective and for policy makers who often have objectives for both mobility and safety.

Analyzing road design risk factors for run-off-road crashes in The Netherlands with crash prediction models.

PROBLEM: About 50% of all road traffic fatalities and 30% of all traffic injuries in the Netherlands take place on rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h. About 50% of these crashes are run-off-road (ROR) crashes. To reduce the number of crashes on this road type, attention should be put on improving the safety of the infrastructure of this road type. With the development of a crash prediction model for ROR crashes on rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h, this study aims at making a start in providing the necessary new tools for a proactive road safety policy to road administrators in the Netherlands. METHOD: The paper presents a basic framework of the model development, comprising a problem description, the data used, and the method for developing the model. The model is developed with the utilization of generalized linear modeling in SAS, using the Negative Binomial probability distribution. A stepwise approach is used by adding one variable at a time, which forms the basis for striving for a parsimonious model and the evaluation of the model. The likelihood ratio test and the Akaike information criterion are used to assess the model fit, and parameter estimations are compared with literature findings to check for consistency. RESULTS: The results comprise two important outcomes. One is a crash prediction model (CPM) to estimate the relative safety of rural roads with a speed limit of 80 km/h in a network. The other is a small set of estimated effects of traffic volume and road characteristics on ROR crash frequencies. PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: The results may lead to adjustments of the road design guidelines in the Netherlands and to further research on the quantification of risk factors with crash prediction models.

Reducing drink driving in low- and middle-income countries: challenges and opportunities.

A great deal of progress has been made in reducing alcohol-impaired driving crashes and the related injuries and deaths in countries around the world. Unfortunately, this progress has not been shared by many low- and middle-income countries. In response to this disparity, a variety of international efforts have been undertaken, including the Drink Driving Initiative of Global Actions on Harmful Drinking, being carried out with a focus on 6 low- and middle-income countries where drink driving is a significant issue. These countries are China, Colombia, Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, and Vietnam. This article provides an overview of situational assessments that describe the current drink driving problems in these countries and the laws, policies, enforcement efforts, and public attitudes related to drink driving. These descriptions show clearly that there are particular challenges faced by the countries discussed here. Some, such as a lack of reliable traffic safety data, are common to most of the countries. This lack of data may be interrelated with the lack of well-developed drink driving policies. Other challenges vary depending on the particular geographic, economic, cultural, and social situations in each country. The assessments indicate the need for a focus on capacity building at the organizational and individual level in the target countries. The assessments also indicate that a long-term commitment to strengthening policies, implementation, and evaluation will be needed. This deeper understanding of the situations in each of these countries is already being put to use in what we hope is the beginning of an important and lifesaving process.

How to make more cycling good for road safety?

This paper discusses the current level of the road safety problems of cycling and cyclists, why cyclists run relatively high risks, and why cyclists may be considered as 'vulnerable road users'. This paper is based on peer-reviewed research which give some idea how to reduce the number of cyclist casualties. However, this research is rather limited and the results cannot (easily) be transferred from one setting or country to another: generalization of results should only be done with the utmost care, if it is to be done at all. Interventions to reduce cyclist casualties worldwide seem to be of an incidental nature; that is to say, they are implemented in a rather isolated way. In a Safe System approach, such as the Dutch Sustainable Safety vision, the inherent risks of traffic are dealt with in a systematic, proactive way. We illustrate how this approach is especially effective for vulnerable road users, such as cyclists. Finally, the paper addresses the question of whether it is possible to make more cycling good for road safety. We conclude that when the number of cyclists increases, the number of fatalities may increase, but will not necessarily do so, and the outcome is dependent on specific conditions. There is strong evidence that well-designed bicycle facilities-physically separated networks-reduce risks for cyclists, and therefore have an impact on the net safety result, for example if car-kilometres are substituted by bicycle kilometres. Policies to support cycling should incorporate these findings in order to make more cycling good for road safety.