Decreased and increased relative acetabular volume predict the development of osteoarthritis of the hip: an osteological review of 1090 hips.

AIMS: Recently, there has been considerable interest in quantifying the associations between bony abnormalities around and in the hip joint and osteoarthritis (OA). Our aim was to investigate the relationships between acetabular undercoverage, acetabular overcoverage, and femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) with OA of the hip, which currently remain controversial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 545 cadaveric skeletons (1090 hips) from the Hamann-Todd osteological collection were obtained. Femoral head volume (FHV), acetabular volume (AV), the FHV/AV ratio, acetabular version, alpha angle and anterior femoral neck offset (AFNO) were measured. A validated grading system was used to quantify OA of the hip as minimal, moderate, or severe. Multiple linear and multinomial logistic regression were used to determine the factors that correlated independently with the FHV, AV, and the FHV/AV ratio. RESULTS: Female cadavers had smaller FHVs (standardised beta -0.382, p < 0.001), and AVs (standardised beta -0.351, p < 0.001), compared with male patients, although the FHV/AV ratio was unchanged. Every 1° increase in alpha angle increased the probability of having moderate OA of the hip compared with minimal OA by 7.1%. Every 1 mm decrease in AFNO increased the probability of having severe or moderate OA of the hip, compared with minimal OA, by 11% and 9%, respectively. The relative risk ratios of having severe OA of the hip compared with minimal OA were 7.2 and 3.3 times greater for acetabular undercoverage and overcoverage, respectively, relative to normal acetabular cover. CONCLUSION: Acetabular undercoverage and overcoverage were independent predictors of increased OA of the hip. The alpha angle and AFNO had modest effects, supporting the hypothesis that bony abnormalities both in acetabular dysplasia and FAI are associated with severe OA. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:432-9.

Smoking and the risk of peptic ulcer disease among women in the United States.

Although multiple studies support a causal relationship between smoking and peptic ulcers in men, data for women are limited. Therefore, we used data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, a nationally representative prospective study of US adults, to evaluate the impact of smoking on the incidence of peptic ulcers in women. The study cohort included 2851 women who had not been diagnosed as having a peptic ulcer prior to the baseline interview. Among these women, 140 (4.9%) developed peptic ulcer disease. During 12.5 years of follow-up, the estimated cumulative incidence of ulcers was 10.0% for current smokers, 6.4% for former smokers, and 5.4% for never smokers. After adjusting for age, education, regular aspirin use, coffee consumption, and use of alcohol, current smokers were 1.8 times more likely to develop ulcers than never smokers (95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 2.6); the risk of peptic ulcer increased as the amount smoked increased. During the time of this study, we estimate that approximately 20% of incident peptic ulcer cases among US women were attributable to cigarette smoking.

The 10-year incidence of overweight and major weight gain in US adults.

We estimated the 10-year incidence of major weight gain (a gain in body mass index of greater than or equal to 5 kg/m2 and overweight (a body mass index of greater than or equal to 27.8 for men and greater than or equal to 27.3 for women) in US adults using data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Persons aged 25 to 74 years at baseline were reweighed a decade after their initial examination (men, 3727; women, 6135). The incidence of major weight gain was twice as high in women and was highest in persons aged 25 to 34 years (men, 3.9%; women, 8.4%). Initially overweight women aged 25 to 44 years had the highest incidence of major weight gain of any subgroup (14.2%). For person not overweight at baseline (men, 2760; women, 4295), the incidence of becoming overweight was similar in both sexes and was highest in those aged 35 to 44 years (men, 16.3%; women, 13.5%). We conclude that obesity prevention should begin among adults in their early 20s and that special emphasis is needed for young women who are already overweight.

Self-perceived stress and the risk of peptic ulcer disease. A longitudinal study of US adults.

BACKGROUND: Although many physicians and laypersons believe that stress plays a role in the occurrence of peptic ulcer disease, the importance of stress in the pathogenesis of peptic ulcers remains controversial. METHODS: To investigate the relationship between perceived stress and peptic ulcer disease we used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study--a nationally representative cohort study of US adults. This analysis included 4511 persons who had not previously been diagnosed with peptic ulcer disease. RESULTS: At baseline, 68% of the cohort perceived themselves as stressed. During 13 years of follow-up, 208 persons developed ulcers; the cumulative incidence of ulcers was 7.2% for persons who were stressed and 4.0% for persons who were not. After we adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, and regular aspirin use, persons who perceived themselves as stressed were 1.8 times more likely to develop ulcers than those who did not (95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 2.5). We also found a graded relationship between the perceived amount of stress and the incidence of peptic ulcers; relative to nonstressed persons, the relative risk of developing an ulcer was 1.4, 1.9, 2.3, 2.4, and 2.9 at five increasing levels of stress. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that persons who perceive their lives as stressful may be at increased risk for the development of peptic ulcer disease.

Intentional weight loss and mortality among overweight individuals with diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of intentional weight loss on mortality in overweight individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We performed a prospective analysis with a 12-year mortality follow-up (1959-1972) of 4,970 overweight individuals with diabetes, 40-64 years of age, who were enrolled in the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study I. Rate ratios (RRs) were calculated, comparing overall death rates, and death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes in individuals with and without reported intentional weight loss. RESULTS: Intentional weight loss was reported by 34% of the cohort. After adjustment for initial BMI, sociodemographic factors, health status, and physical activity, intentional weight loss was associated with a 25% reduction in total mortality (RR = 0.75; 95% CI 0.67-0.84), and a 28% reduction in CVD and diabetes mortality (RR = 0.72; 0.63-0.82). Intentional weight loss of 20-29 lb was associated with the largest reductions in mortality (approximately 33%). Weight loss >70 lb was associated with small increases in mortality CONCLUSIONS: Intentional weight loss was associated with substantial reductions in mortality in this observational study of overweight individuals with diabetes.

Population-based assessment of the level of care among adults with diabetes in the U.S.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the levels of use of preventive care and to identify correlates of such care among people with diabetes in the U.S. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using a sample of 2,118 adults, age > or =18 years, with self-reported diabetes in 22 states that participated in the 1994 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Most subjects were age > or =45 years (83%), women (51%), and white (75%) and were diagnosed at ages > or =30 years (83%), had type 2 diabetes (89%), and were not using insulin (66%). RESULTS: Among all people with diabetes, 78% practiced self-monitoring of blood glucose, and 25% were aware of the term "glycosylated hemoglobin" or "hemoglobin A one C" (HbA1c). In the last year, 72% of the subjects visited a health care provider for diabetes care at least once, 61% had their feet inspected at least once, and 61% received a dilated eye examination. Controlled for age and sex, the odds ratios (ORs) for insulin use were for self-monitoring (OR [95% CI]; 4.0 [2.6-6.1]); having heard of HbA1c or receipt of a dilated eye examination (1.9 [1.4-2.5]); at least one visit to a provider (3.4 [1.9-7.2]); and feet inspected at least once (2.1 [1.5-2.9]). In addition, people <45 years, those who did not complete high school, and those without insurance coverage were high-risk groups for underuse of preventive care. Only 3% of insulin users and 1% of nonusers met all five of the American Diabetes Association standards in the previous year. CONCLUSIONS: Underuse of recommended preventive care practices is common among people with diabetes.

Temporal trends in BMI among adults with diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Increasing obesity within the general population has been accompanied by rising rates of diabetes. The extent to which obesity has increased among people with diabetes is unknown, as are the potential consequences for diabetes outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Community medical records (hospital and ambulatory) of all Rochester, Minnesota, residents aged > or =30 years who first met standardized research criteria for diabetes from 1970 to 1989 (n = 1,306) were reviewed to obtain data on BMI and related characteristics as of the diabetes identification date (+/-3 months). Vital status as of 31 December 1999 and date of death for those who died were obtained from medical records, State of Minnesota death tapes, and active follow-up. RESULTS: As of the identification date, data on BMI were available for 1,290 cases. Of the 272 who first met diabetes criteria in 1970-1974, 33% were obese (BMI > or =30), including 5% who were extremely obese (BMI > or =40). These proportions increased to 49% (P < 0.001) and 9% (P = 0.012), respectively, for the 426 residents who first met diabetes criteria in 1985-1989. BMI increased significantly with increasing calendar year of diabetes identification in multivariable regression analysis. Analysis of survival revealed an increased hazard of mortality for BMI > or =41, relative to BMI of 23-25 (hazard ratio 1.60, 95% CI 1.09-2.34, P = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of obesity and extreme obesity among individuals at the time they first met criteria for diabetes has increased over time. This is disturbing in light of the finding that diabetic individuals who are extremely obese are at increased risk of mortality compared with their nonobese diabetic counterparts.

Diabetes and physical disability among older U.S. adults.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of physical disability associated with diabetes among U.S. adults > or =60 years of age. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data from a nationally representative sample of 6,588 community-dwelling men and women > or =60 years of age who participated in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Diabetes and comorbidities (coronary heart disease, intermittent claudication, stroke, arthritis, and visual impairment) were assessed by questionnaire. Physical disability was assessed by self-reported ability to walk one-fourth of a mile, climb 10 steps, and do housework. Walking speed, lower-extremity function, and balance were assessed using physical performance tests. RESULTS: Among subjects > or =60 years of age with diabetes, 32% of women and 15% of men reported an inability to walk one-fourth of a mile, climb stairs, or do housework compared with 14% of women and 8% of men without diabetes. Diabetes was associated with a 2- to 3-fold increased odds of not being able to do each task among both men and women and up to a 3.6-fold increased risk of not being able to do all 3 tasks. Among women, diabetes was also associated with slower walking speed, inferior lower-extremity function, decreased balance, and an increased risk of falling. Of the >5 million U.S. adults > or =60 years of age with diabetes, 1.2 million are unable to do major physical tasks. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with a major burden of physical disability in older U.S. adults, and these disabilities are likely to substantially impair their quality of life.

Is race associated with weight change in US adults after adjustment for income, education, and marital factors?

We examined the 10-y change in body mass index (BMI, in kg/m2) of black and white adults who entered the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Followup Study at ages 25-44 y. In women the mean change in BMI was greater for blacks than for whites despite multiple adjustments. However, the risk of major weight gain (MWG; BMI change greater than or equal to + 5) was nearly identical in black and white women. Womens' MWG was independently associated with low income [odds ratio (OR) = 1.7] and with becoming married (OR = 1.8). The risk of major weight loss (MWL; BMI change less than or equal to -2.5) was lower in black women than in white women (OR = 0.6). In men mean BMI change, MWG (BMI change greater than or equal to + 4) and MWL (BMI change greater than or equal to -2) were not associated with race, but there were effects associated with low income, low education, and marital changes. Black race does not increase the risk of weight gain; in women it may be associated with a reduced likelihood of weight loss.

The 10-y incidence of obesity and major weight gain in black and white US women aged 30-55 y.

Although the prevalence of obesity in US women is well-described, data are limited on the incidence of major weight gain and obesity. We used data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study to estimate the 10-y incidence of major weight gain (greater than or equal to 10 kg) and obesity [body mass index (BMI, in kg/m2) greater than or equal to 29] in a cohort of US women aged 30-55 y (n = 535 blacks and 2976 whites). In women not obese at baseline, blacks were 60% more likely to become obese than whites [incidence in blacks = 15.5%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.2-19.7; incidence in whites = 9.7%, 95% CI = 8.6-10.8]. This higher incidence of obesity in blacks was largely due to their higher average BMI at baseline. The incidence of major weight gain was 50% higher in blacks than in whites (in blacks, 17.3%; 95% CI = 13.6-21.0; in whites, 11.7%; 95% CI = 10.3-13.1). We estimate that in black and white women, respectively, 16% and 12% of coronary heart disease is attributed to major weight gain whereas 35% and 21% is attributed to being obese.

Report of a National Institutes of Health--Centers for Disease Control and Prevention workshop on the feasibility of conducting a randomized clinical trial to estimate the long-term health effects of intentional weight loss in obese persons.

A workshop was convened in 1997 by the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to consider the need for and feasibility of conducting a randomized clinical trial to estimate the long-term health effects of intentional weight loss in obese persons. Although the benefits of weight loss in obese individuals may seem obvious, little information is available showing that intentional weight loss improves long-term health outcomes. Observational studies may be unable to provide convincing answers about the magnitude and direction of the health effects of intentional weight loss. Workshop participants agreed that a well-designed randomized clinical trial could answer several questions necessary for developing a rational clinical and public health policy for treating obesity. Such information will ultimately provide needed guidance on the risks and benefits of weight loss to health care providers and payers, as well as to millions of obese Americans.

Simulation study of the effects of excluding early deaths on risk factor-mortality analyses in the presence of confounding due to occult disease: the example of body mass index.

PURPOSE: Estimating the effects of continuous chronic disease risk factors on mortality is an area that generates confusion and controversy. The frequently observed U-shaped or J-shaped relationships between the risk factors and mortality are often in contrast with presumed monotone relationships. Therefore, some investigators suggest that subjects dying during the first k years of follow-up (where k is some positive number less than the total length of follow-up) be excluded from statistical analyses. The rationale for this approach is that subjects dying during the first k years of follow-up are likely to have some pre-existing occult disease that confounds the relationship between the risk factors and mortality. Excluding such subjects purportedly reduces bias due to this confounding. The purpose of this study was to test the effects of excluding subjects who die during the first k years of follow-up on the reduction of bias under a variety of situations. METHODS: Using body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) as an example, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations to investigate such effects. RESULTS: Results suggest that under the conditions investigated, the method of excluding early deaths does not reliably or substantially reduce bias due to confounding introduced by occult disease. CONCLUSION: Excluding subjects dying during the first k years of follow-up may not be a judicious strategy for handling confounding due to occult disease. Investigators are encouraged to develop alternative methods.

Simple anthropometric indices associated with ischemic heart disease.

In a case-control study of 217 hospitalized incident cases of ischemic heart disease and 261 controls we compared various anthropometric indices for the strength of their associations to the outcome event. The ratio of supine sagittal abdominal diameter to midthigh girth ("abdominal diameter index"; ADI) was the simple index that best discriminated cases from controls for both men (standardized difference, 0.65; p < 0.0001) and women (standardized difference, 0.95; p < 0.0001). The waist-to-thigh ratio of girths (WTR) (standardized difference, 0.57 and 0.90; p < 0.0001) was nearly as strong as the ADI and stronger than the traditional waist-to-hip ratio (standardized difference, 0.34 and 0.68; p < 0.005). After adjustments for age and race, the men's odds ratio for ischemic heart disease (tertile 3 vs. tertile 1) was 5.5 (95% CI, 2.9-10) using ADI and 5.1 (2.6-10) using the WTR. The women's odds ratio was 6.3 (1.9-20) using ADI and 8.7 (2.3-33) using the WTR. Further adjustments for body mass index and cardiovascular risk factors did not substantially change these risk estimates. Similar odds ratios were estimated by analyses restricted to 169 neighborhood-matched case-control pairs. In contrast, increased midthigh girth and subcutaneous fat mass (sum of three skinfolds) were associated with a protective effect against ischemic heart disease. Anthropometry using the ADI or WTR could offer a low-cost, noninvasive method for the clinical or epidemiologic evaluation of ischemic heart disease risk.

Identifying the malnourished within Peru: regional variation in the performance of a nutrition indicator.

Malnourished children may also have siblings at increased risk of poor health. Early identification of siblings at risk could lead to timely intervention to prevent the development of malnutrition or other potentially life-threatening events. In a nationwide survey conducted in Peru in 1984, stunting in an older sibling (defined as height/age less than or equal to 3.00 SD of the NCHS/CDC reference median) was evaluated as an indicator for stunting in a target sibling (next youngest) sibling) (n = 3284). The prevalence of stunting was much higher in target siblings who had an older sibling with stunting compared to those whose older sibling was not stunted, with prevalence ratios of 8.5 in Lima, 4.7 in urban areas, and 2.5 in rural areas. Screening indices (sensitivity, specificity, and predictive value positive) also showed marked variation across regions. The variation in this indicator's performance across regions demonstrates the importance of evaluating screening tools within the populations where they will be applied. Regional variations in the performance of malnutrition indicators should be anticipated because malnutrition is the result of a complex, multifactorial process.

Smoking prevalence in the United States and Taipei City, Taiwan.

Although there are extensive antismoking efforts in the United States, smoking is a largely ignored health issue in Taiwan. In fact, tobacco advertising has increased dramatically since U.S. tobacco was first imported in 1987. We compared estimates of smoking prevalence of 83,281 Americans and 5,023 persons in Taipei, Taiwan, in 1986-1988. Among men, current smoking prevalence was higher in Taipei (49%) than in the United States (29%). In contrast, former smoking prevalence among men was substantially lower in Taipei (5%) than in the United States (32%). Young adults and those with lower and middle education levels had the highest smoking prevalence in both surveys. Among women, the current smoking prevalence was only 8% in Taipei, compared to 25% in the United States. The former smoking prevalence among Taipei women (1%) was also lower than among U.S. women (18%). Our findings indicate the need for expanding antismoking efforts in Taiwan, especially among men and among persons with lower and middle education levels.

The 25-year health care costs of women who remain overweight after 40 years of age.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previously published reports strongly suggest that being overweight is a risk factor for coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, gallstones, and osteoarthritis in women. Substantial health care and medication costs are associated with these chronic health conditions. We used an incidence-based analysis to estimate the excess costs associated with women maintaining an overweight status during the 25-year period from age 40 to 65 years. METHODS: The health care costs of three hypothetical cohorts of 10,000 40-year-old women were extrapolated to age 65. The non-overweight cohort maintained a body mass index (BMI; weight [kg]/height [m2]) of 21 to 24.9; the moderately overweight cohort maintained a BMI of 25 to 28.9; the severely overweight cohort maintained a BMI of > or = 29. The number of fatal and nonfatal health outcomes in each cohort for heart disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, gallstones, and osteoarthritis was calculated with their associated costs. RESULTS: We estimated that when compared with the non-overweight cohort of 10,000 women, the cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of > or = 29 incurred excess costs of $53 million over a 25 year period (discounted at 3% per year) and 497 excess deaths. The cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of 25-28.9 incurred excess costs of $22 million (discounted at 3% per year) and 212 excess deaths, compared with the non-overweight cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that an estimated $16 billion will be spent during the next 25 years treating health outcomes associated with overweight in middle-aged women in the United States. Thus, a substantial health burden is associated with the increasing prevalence of overweight women in the United States. Preventing excess coronary heart disease, gall-stones, osteoarthritis, hypertension, and diabetes through prevention of weight gain, particularly among reproductive-aged women, may be a cost-effective strategy.

Relationship of childhood abuse and household dysfunction to many of the leading causes of death in adults. The Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of health risk behavior and disease in adulthood to the breadth of exposure to childhood emotional, physical, or sexual abuse, and household dysfunction during childhood has not previously been described. METHODS: A questionnaire about adverse childhood experiences was mailed to 13,494 adults who had completed a standardized medical evaluation at a large HMO; 9,508 (70.5%) responded. Seven categories of adverse childhood experiences were studied: psychological, physical, or sexual abuse; violence against mother; or living with household members who were substance abusers, mentally ill or suicidal, or ever imprisoned. The number of categories of these adverse childhood experiences was then compared to measures of adult risk behavior, health status, and disease. Logistic regression was used to adjust for effects of demographic factors on the association between the cumulative number of categories of childhood exposures (range: 0-7) and risk factors for the leading causes of death in adult life. RESULTS: More than half of respondents reported at least one, and one-fourth reported > or = 2 categories of childhood exposures. We found a graded relationship between the number of categories of childhood exposure and each of the adult health risk behaviors and diseases that were studied (P < .001). Persons who had experienced four or more categories of childhood exposure, compared to those who had experienced none, had 4- to 12-fold increased health risks for alcoholism, drug abuse, depression, and suicide attempt; a 2- to 4-fold increase in smoking, poor self-rated health, > or = 50 sexual intercourse partners, and sexually transmitted disease; and 1.4- to 1.6-fold increase in physical inactivity and severe obesity. The number of categories of adverse childhood exposures showed a graded relationship to the presence of adult diseases including ischemic heart disease, cancer, chronic lung disease, skeletal fractures, and liver disease. The seven categories of adverse childhood experiences were strongly interrelated and persons with multiple categories of childhood exposure were likely to have multiple health risk factors later in life. CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong graded relationship between the breadth of exposure to abuse or household dysfunction during childhood and multiple risk factors for several of the leading causes of death in adults.

The public health epidemiology of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents: a case study of American Indian adolescents in the Southwestern United States.

Type 2 diabetes among children and adolescents is a newly recognized disease in the United States. Because obesity and physical inactivity are increasing in children and adolescents, the prevalence of pediatric type 2 diabetes may increase and eventually become an important cause of adult morbidity and mortality. Data on type 2 diabetes in adolescents aged 15-19 years were compared between two sources: systematic population screening of the Gila River Indian Community by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and reported cases by the Indian Health Service (IHS) from clinics in the Southwestern US. The current NIH estimate of prevalence of type 2 diabetes was much higher than the IHS estimate (5.1% vs. 0.46%). Both data sources, however, suggest a secular increase in prevalence between 1986 and 1996-97. These data are used to discuss the principles, applications, and challenges for accurate epidemiologic assessment of type 2 diabetes in children and adolescents.

High prevalence of impaired fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes mellitus in Penghu Islets, Taiwan: evidence of a rapidly emerging epidemic?

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in Penghu, Taiwan and compare these estimates with those of the US (NHANES III). Diabetes and IFG (American Diabetes Association criteria, 1997) were assessed among a stratified random sample of 2500 residents of Penghu Islands, Taiwan. The prevalence (age-adjusted to world adult population) of diabetes and IFG were 16.8% (95% CI 15.0-18.6) and 21.0% (95% CI 19.0-23.0), respectively, among Penghu Islanders in Taiwan. Age sex-specific diabetes prevalence ranged from 10.0% in men aged 40-49 years to 29.4% in women aged 60-69 years. Prevalence of IFG ranged from 14.7% in women aged 40-49 years to 30.7% in men aged 50-59 years. Age, body mass index (BMI), and family history of diabetes were each independently associated with both diabetes and IFG. In addition, female gender, apolipoprotein B and triglyceride concentrations were associated with diabetes, and hypertension and apolipoprotein B concentration with IFG. Among persons > or = 40 years in Penghu, Taiwan, the prevalence of diabetes is up to a third higher and the prevalence of IFG is up to three times higher than comparably aged Americans, despite their having a mean BMI 2.2-3.2 kg/m2 lower than Americans. The alarmingly high prevalence of IFG in Taiwan may indicate an emerging diabetes epidemic.