Validation of the Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four aging cohorts from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care.

BACKGROUND: As global aging accelerates, routinely assessing the functional status and morbidity burden of older patients becomes paramount. The aim of this study is to assess the validity of the comprehensive clinical and functional Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four cohorts of older adults (60 + years) from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care (SNAC) spanning urban, suburban, and rural areas. METHODS: The HAT integrates five health indicators (gait speed, global cognition, number of chronic diseases, and basic and instrumental activities of daily living), providing an individual-level score between 0 and 10. The tool was constructed using nominal response models, first separately for each cohort and then in a harmonized dataset. Outcomes included all-cause mortality over a maximum follow-up of 16 years and unplanned hospital admissions over a maximum of 3 years of follow-up. The predictive capacity was assessed through the area under the curve (AUC) using logistic regressions. For time to death, Cox regressions were performed, and Harrell's C-indices were reported. Results from the four cohorts were pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis and compared with those from the harmonized dataset. RESULTS: The HAT demonstrated high predictive capacity across all cohorts as well as in the harmonized dataset. In the harmonized dataset, the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) for 1-year mortality, 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.83) for 3-year mortality, 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) for 5-year mortality, 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70) for 1-year unplanned admissions, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70) for 3-year unplanned admissions. The Harrell's C for time-to-death throughout 16 years of follow-up was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The HAT is a highly predictive, clinically intuitive, and externally valid instrument with potential for better addressing older adults' health needs and optimizing risk stratification at the population level.

People get ready! A new generation of Alzheimer's therapies may require new ways to deliver and pay for healthcare.

The development of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for Alzheimer's disease (AD) has progressed over the last decade, and the first-ever therapies with potential to slow the progression of disease are approved in the United States. AD DMTs could provide life-changing opportunities for people living with this disease, as well as for their caregivers. They could also ease some of the immense societal and economic burden of dementia. However, AD DMTs also come with major challenges due to the large unmet medical need, high prevalence of AD, new costs related to diagnosis, treatment and monitoring, and uncertainty in the therapies' actual clinical value. This perspective article discusses, from the broad perspective of various health systems and stakeholders, how we can overcome these challenges and improve society's readiness for AD DMTs. We propose that innovative payment models such as performance-based payments, in combination with learning healthcare systems, could be the way forward to enable timely patient access to treatments, improve accuracy of cost-effectiveness evaluations and overcome budgetary barriers. Other important considerations include the need for identification of key drivers of patient value, the relevance of different economic perspectives (i.e. healthcare vs. societal) and ethical questions in terms of treatment eligibility criteria.

Predicting sojourn times across dementia disease stages, institutionalization, and mortality.

INTRODUCTION: Inferring the timeline from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to severe dementia is pivotal for patients, clinicians, and researchers. Literature is sparse and often contains few patients. We aim to determine the time spent in MCI, mild-, moderate-, severe dementia, and institutionalization until death. METHODS: Multistate modeling with Cox regression was used to obtain the sojourn time. Covariates were age at baseline, sex, amyloid status, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other dementia diagnosis. The sample included a register (SveDem) and memory clinics (Amsterdam Dementia Cohort and Memento). RESULTS: Using 80,543 patients, the sojourn time from clinically identified MCI to death across all patient groups ranged from 6.20 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.57-6.98) to 10.08 (8.94-12.18) years. DISCUSSION: Generally, sojourn time was inversely associated with older age at baseline, males, and AD diagnosis. The results provide key estimates for researchers and clinicians to estimate prognosis.

The worldwide costs of dementia in 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Dementia is a leading cause of death and disability globally. Estimating total societal costs demonstrates the wide impact of dementia and its main direct and indirect economic components. METHODS: We constructed a global cost model for dementia, presenting costs as cumulated global and regional costs. RESULTS: In 2019, the annual global societal costs of dementia were estimated at US $1313.4 billion for 55.2 million people with dementia, corresponding to US $23,796 per person with dementia. Of the total, US $213.2 billion (16%) were direct medical costs, US $448.7 billion (34%) direct social sector costs (including long-term care), and US $651.4 billion (50%) costs of informal care. DISCUSSION: The huge costs of dementia worldwide place enormous strains on care systems and families alike. Although most people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries, highest total and per-person costs are seen in high-income countries. HIGHLIGHTS: Global economic costs of dementia were estimated to reach US $1313.4 in 2019. Sixty-one percent of people with dementia live in low-and middle-income countries, whereas 74% of the costs occur in high-income countries. The impact of informal care accounts for about 50% of the global costs. The development of a long-term care infrastructure is a great challenge for low-and middle-income countries. There is a great need for more cost studies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Discussions of a framework for global cost comparisons are needed.

Cost-effectiveness models for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: IPECAD modeling workshop cross-comparison challenge.

INTRODUCTION: The credibility of model-based economic evaluations of Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions is central to appropriate decision-making in a policy context. We report on the International PharmacoEconomic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) Modeling Workshop Challenge. METHODS: Two common benchmark scenarios, for the hypothetical treatment of AD mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and mild dementia, were developed jointly by 29 participants. Model outcomes were summarized, and cross-comparisons were discussed during a structured workshop. RESULTS: A broad concordance was established among participants. Mean 10-year restricted survival and time in MCI in the control group ranged across 10 MCI models from 6.7 to 9.5 years and 3.4 to 5.6 years, respectively; and across 4 mild dementia models from 5.4 to 7.9 years (survival) and 1.5 to 4.2 years (mild dementia). DISCUSSION: The model comparison increased our understanding of methods, data used, and disease progression. We established a collaboration framework to assess cost-effectiveness outcomes, an important step toward transparent and credible AD models.

Changes in dementia diagnoses in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused large disruptions to healthcare systems. Refocus on COVID-19 related care might have contributed to indirect effects on other healthcare areas. Care focused on acute conditions have been negatively affected although research into the effects on chronic and care intensive patient groups such as patients with dementia diseases is lacking. In this study we evaluated dementia diagnosis trends in Sweden during 2015-2020 according to International Classification of Disease version 10 coding of common dementia diseases. METHODS: Regional and national statistics in the form of International Classification of Disease version 10 coding, COVID-19 incidence, mortality data, and population census data were collected from the National Institute of Health and Welfare. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify trends of dementia diagnosis during 2015-2020. Correlation test was performed between COVID-19 incidence, mortality rates, and dementia coding. RESULTS: Dementia diagnosis incidence has been declining since 2015 and further decline was noted in many regions in Sweden during 2020. As COVID-19 incidence increased, fewer cases of dementia were diagnosed, a decrease that differentially impacted women and those who were advanced in age. CONCLUSIONS: Dementia diagnosis incidence in Sweden has been on a decline since 2015. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a further larger decline in dementia diagnosis incidence during 2020. COVID-19 incidence, but not mortality, was associated with decrease in dementia diagnosis incidence. There might be a large number of undiagnosed patients with dementia and healthcare reforms should be enacted to address this. Women and elderly are particularly vulnerable groups.

Changes in mortality trends amongst common diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden.

OBJECTIVE: It has been found that COVID-19 increases deaths within common diseases in countries that have implemented strict lockdowns. In order to elucidate the proper national response to a pandemic, the mortality rates within COVID-19 and various diseases need to be studied in countries whose pandemic response differ. Sweden represents a country with lax pandemic restrictions, and we aimed to study the effects of COVID-19 on historical mortality rates within common diseases during 2020. METHODS: Regression models and moving averages were used to predict expected premature mortality per the ICD-10 during 2020 using historical data sets. Predicted values were then compared to recorded premature mortality to identify changes in mortality trends. RESULTS: Seasonal increased mortality was found within neurological diseases. Infectious diseases, tumours and cardiac disease mortality rates decreased compared to expected outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in mortality trends were observed for several common diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Neurological and cardiac conditions, infections and tumours are examples of diseases that were heavily affected by the pandemic. The indirect effects of COVID-19 on certain patient populations should be considered when determining pandemic impact.

Dementia prevention: The potential long-term cost-effectiveness of the FINGER prevention program.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of the Finnish Geriatric Intervention Study to Prevent Cognitive Impairment and Disability (FINGER) program. METHODS: A life-time Markov model with societal perspective, simulating a cohort of people at risk of dementia reflecting usual care and the FINGER program. RESULTS: Costs were 1,653,275 and 1,635,346 SEK and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were 8.636 and 8.679 for usual care and the FINGER program, respectively, resulting in savings of 16,928 SEK (2023 US$) and 0.043 QALY gains per person, supporting extended dominance for the FINGER program. A total of 1623 dementia cases were avoided with 0.17 fewer person-years living with dementia. The sensitivity analysis confirmed the conclusions in most scenarios. DISCUSSION: The model provides support that programs like FINGER have the potential to be cost-effective in preventing dementia. Results at the individual level are rather modest, but the societal benefits can be substantial because of the large potential target population.

Complementary pre-screening strategies to uncover hidden prodromal and mild Alzheimer's disease: Results from the MOPEAD project.

INTRODUCTION: The Models of Patient Engagement for Alzheimer's Disease (MOPEAD) project was conceived to explore innovative complementary strategies to uncover hidden prodromal and mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia cases and to raise awareness both in the general public and among health professionals about the importance of early diagnosis. METHODS: Four different strategies or RUNs were used: (a) a web-based (WB) prescreening tool, (2) an open house initiative (OHI), (3) a primary care-based protocol for early detection of cognitive decline (PC), and (4) a tertiary care-based pre-screening at diabetologist clinics (DC). RESULTS: A total of 1129 patients at high risk of having prodromal AD or dementia were identified of 2847 pre-screened individuals (39.7%). The corresponding proportion for the different initiatives were 36.8% (WB), 35.6% (OHI), 44.4% (PC), and 58.3% (DC). CONCLUSION: These four complementary pre-screening strategies were useful for identifying individuals at high risk of having prodromal or mild AD.

A validation study of the CarerQol instrument in informal caregivers of people with dementia from eight European countries.

PURPOSE: Informal care constitutes an important part of the total care for people with dementia. Therefore, the impact of the syndrome on their caregivers as well as that of health and social care services for people with dementia should be considered. This study investigated the convergent and clinical validity of the CarerQol instrument, which measures and values the impact of providing informal care, in a multi-country sample of caregivers for people with dementia. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from a sample of 451 respondents in eight European countries, collected by the Actifcare project, were evaluated. Convergent validity was analysed with Spearman's correlation coefficients and multivariate correlations between the CarerQol-7D utility score and dimension scores, and other similar quality of life measures such as CarerQol-VAS, ICECAP-O, and EQ-5D. Clinical validity was evaluated by bivariate and multivariate analyses of the degree to which the CarerQol instrument can differentiate between characteristics of caregivers, care receivers and caregiving situation. Country dummies were added to test CarerQol score differences between countries. RESULTS: The mean CarerQol utility score was 77.6 and varied across countries from 74.3 (Italy) to 82.3 (Norway). The scores showed moderate to strong positive correlations with the CarerQol-VAS, ICECAP-O, and EQ-5D health problems score of the caregiver. Multivariate regression analysis showed that various characteristics of the caregiver, care receiver and caregiving situation were associated with caregiver outcomes, but there was no evidence of a country-level effect. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the convergent and clinical validity of the CarerQol instrument to evaluate the impact of providing informal care for people with dementia.

Is there equity in initial access to formal dementia care in Europe? The Andersen Model applied to the Actifcare cohort.

OBJECTIVES: In the current study, the Anderson model is used to determine equitable access to dementia care in Europe. Predisposing, enabling, and need variables were investigated to find out whether there is equitable access to dementia-specific formal care services. Results can identify which specific factors should be a target to improve access. METHODS: A total of 451 People with middle-stage dementia and their informal carers from eight European countries were included. At baseline, there was no use of formal care yet, but people were expected to start using formal care within the next year. Logistic regressions were carried out with one of four clusters of service use as dependent variables (home social care, home personal care, day care, admission). The independent variables (predisposing, enabling, and need variables) were added to the regression in blocks. RESULTS: The most significant predictors for the different care clusters are disease severity, a higher sum of (un)met needs, hours spent on informal care, living alone, age, region of residence, and gender. CONCLUSION: The Andersen model provided for this cohort the insight that (besides need factors) the predisposing variables region of residence, gender, and age do play a role in finding access to care. In addition, it showed us that the numbers of hours spent on informal care, living alone, needs, and disease severity are also important predictors within the model's framework. Health care professionals should pay attention to these predisposing factors to ensure that they do not become barriers for those in need for care.

A validation study of the ICECAP-O in informal carers of people with dementia from eight European Countries.

PURPOSE: The pressure on healthcare budgets remains high, partially due to the ageing population. Economic evaluation can be a helpful tool to inform resource allocation in publicly financed systems. Such evaluations frequently use health-related outcome measures. However, in areas such as care of older people, improving health outcomes is not necessarily the main focus of care interventions and broader outcome measures, including outcomes for those providing informal care, may be preferred when evaluating such interventions. This paper validates a recently introduced well-being measure, the ICECAP-O, in a population of informal carers for people with dementia from eight European countries. METHODS: Convergent and discriminant validity tests were performed to validate the ICECAP-O using data obtained in a sample of 451 respondents from Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. These respondents completed a number of standardized questionnaires within the framework of the Actifcare project. RESULTS: The ICECAP-O performed well among informal carers, in terms of both convergent and discriminant validity. In the multivariate analysis, it was found to be significantly associated with the age of the person with dementia, EQ-5D-5L health problem index of the person with dementia, carer-patient relationship, care recipient CDR, carer LSNS Score, the PAI score, and Perseverance Time. CONCLUSION: The ICECAP-O appears to be a valid measure of well-being in informal carers for people with dementia. The ICECAP-O may therefore be useful as an outcome measure in economic evaluations of interventions aimed at such informal carers, when these aim to improve well-being beyond health.

Factors associated with long-term impact on informal caregivers during Alzheimer's disease dementia progression: 36-month results from GERAS.

OBJECTIVE: To identify, in caregivers of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia, factors associated with subjective (personal, physical, emotional, and social) and objective (informal caregiver time and costs) caregiver burden. DESIGN: Prospective longitudinal European observational study: post-hoc analysis. SETTING: Clinic. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling patients in France and Germany aged ≥ 55 years (n = 969) with probable AD and their informal caregivers. MEASUREMENTS: Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study-Activities of Daily Living (ADCS-ADL), 12-item Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI-12), Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI), informal caregiver basic and instrumental ADL hours (Resource Utilization in Dementia instrument), and informal caregiver costs. Mixed-effect models of repeated measures (MMRM) were run, including baseline and time-dependent covariates (change from baseline [CFB] to 18 months in MMSE, ADCS-ADL, and NPI-12 scores) associated with CFB in ZBI score/informal caregiver time over 36 months (analyzed using linear regression models) and informal caregiver costs over 36 months (analyzed using generalized linear models). RESULTS: Greater decline in patient function (ADCS-ADL) over 18 months was associated with increased subjective caregiver burden (ZBI), hours, and costs over 36 months. Increased behavioral problems (NPI-12) over 18 months also negatively impacted ZBI. Cognitive decline (MMSE) over 18 months did not affect change in caregiver burden. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term informal caregiver burden was driven by worsening functional abilities and behavioral symptoms but not cognitive decline, over 18 months in community-dwelling patients with AD dementia. Identifying the drivers of caregiver burden could highlight areas in which interventions may benefit both caregivers and patients.

Do caregiver profiles predict the use of dementia care services? Findings from the Actifcare study.

Objectives: Previously developed dementia caregiver profiles defined by caregiver age and burden, have been associated with caregiver quality of life, depression and perseverance time. The current aim was to investigate whether these caregiver profiles could predict subsequent service use. In addition, non-personal (e.g. meals on wheels) and supportive services (e.g. Alzheimer café) in early dementia were investigated as predictors.Methods: A total of 451 dyads of people with dementia and their informal caregivers from eight European countries were followed for one year. People were included if they did not use formal (personal) care but were expected to do so within 1 year. Logistic regression analyses were used with four clusters of service use as dependent variables (home social care, home personal care, day care and admission). The independent variables were caregiver profiles, and non-personal and supportive services at baseline.Results: Caregiver profiles were significant predictors of service use; those experiencing high strain were more likely to use formal care. The use of low-intensity, less intrusive services at baseline significantly predicted the use of home personal care and admission at follow-up. The use of day care at follow-up was predicted by the baseline use of supportive services.Conclusion: Caregiver profiles are valuable predictors for service use: this knowledge can aid professionals in ensuring optimal access to services, which is important for maintaining independence at home. In addition, the use of supportive and less intrusive, non-personal services in the early stages of dementia is to be advised.

Well-being and thriving in sheltered housing versus ageing in place: Results from the U-age sheltered housing study.

AIMS: To explore to what extent type of residence (sheltered housing or ageing in place) contributes to thriving and well-being in older adults, when controlling for age, sex, living alone, being a widow and adjusting for functional status, self-rated health, and depressive mood. DESIGN: A matched cohort study. METHODS: A self-report survey was sent out to a total population of residents in all sheltered housings in Sweden and a matched control group ageing in place (N = 3,805). The data collection took place between October 2016-January 2017. RESULTS: The interaction analyses related to thriving showed that with increasing level of depressive mood and decreasing levels of self-rated health and functional status, those residing in sheltered housing generally reported higher levels of thriving, as compared with those ageing in place. Well-being was not found to be significantly associated with type of accommodation. CONCLUSION: There may be features in sheltered housing that are associated with resident thriving especially among individuals with impairments of function, health or mood, although further studies are required to identify these specific features. IMPACT: This study informs staff and policymakers about thriving and well-being in sheltered housing accommodations. These findings may be used to further the development of sheltered housing accommodations.

Controlling for selective dropout in longitudinal dementia data: Application to the SveDem registry.

INTRODUCTION: Loss to follow-up in dementia studies is common and related to cognition, which worsens over time. We aimed to (1) describe dropout and missing cognitive data in the Swedish dementia registry, SveDem; (2) identify factors associated with dropout; and (3) estimate propensity scores and use them to adjust for dropout. METHODS: Longitudinal cognitive data were obtained from 53,880 persons from the SveDem national quality dementia registry. Inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCWs) were estimated using a logistic regression model on dropout. RESULTS: The mean annualized rate of change in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in those with a low MMSE (0 to 10) was likely underestimated in the complete case analysis (+1.5 points/year) versus the IPCW analysis (-0.3 points/year). DISCUSSION: Handling dropout by IPCWs resulted in plausible estimates of cognitive decline. This method is likely of value to adjust for biased dropout in longitudinal cohorts of dementia.

The use of direct care in nursing home residents: A longitudinal cohort study over 3 years.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the trend in the use of direct care in a cohort of nursing home (NH) residents and explore its association with resident characteristics and organizational factors. METHODS/DESIGN: A total of 696 NH residents from 47 Norwegian NHs were included at admissions at NH. In 537 residents, the use of direct care was assessed every 6 months over a course of 3 years. A multiple model was estimated to identify demographic, clinical, and organizational characteristics associated with the use of direct care time. RESULTS: Six months after admission, on average, 76.2 hours of direct care were rendered to each resident per month, while this number was reduced to 50.3 hours per month at the end of the study period. Most residents (92%) showed a stable use of direct care time, while a small group of residents displayed a much higher and varying use of direct care time. Increasing dementia, neuropsychiatric symptoms, and decreasing function in activities of daily living were associated with higher use of direct care time. Direct care time constituted about 50% of the staff's working time. CONCLUSION: In Norwegian NHs, high use of direct care time was associated with younger age, more severe dementia, and severe neuropsychiatric symptoms. By identifying factors that impact on direct care time, preventive measures might be put in place to the benefit of the residents and possibly to improve resource use. Further research should explore the association between direct care time, quality of care, and the residents' quality of life.

Resource use and its association to cognitive impairment, ADL functions, and behavior in residents of Swedish nursing homes: Results from the U-Age program (SWENIS study).

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate resource use and its association to cognitive impairment, activities of daily living, and neuropsychiatric symptoms in residents of Swedish nursing homes. METHODS: Data were collected in 2014 from a Swedish national sample of nursing home residents (n = 4831) and were collected by staff in the facility. The sample consists of all nursing homes in 35 of 60 randomly selected Swedish municipalities. Demographic data and data on resource use, cognitive and physical function as well as neuropsychiatric symptoms were collected through proxies. Descriptive statistics and regression modeling were used to investigate this association. RESULTS: We found that cognitive impairment, activities of daily living, and neuropsychiatric symptoms were associated with 23 hours per week increase in total resource use versus cognitively intact persons. This was also the case for being dependent in activities of daily living. Being totally dependent increased the amount of resource use by 25 hours per week. The sex of a resident did not influence the resource use. Annual costs of resource use with no functional dependency were 359 685 SEK, and in severely cognitive impaired resident, the cost was 825 081 SEK. CONCLUSION: Being cognitively impaired as well as functionally dependent increases the resource use significantly in nursing homes. This has implications for differentiation of costs in institutional settings in health economic evaluations.

Challenges and recommendations for the health-economic evaluation of primary prevention programmes for dementia.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to review health-economic evaluations of (hypothetical) intervention programmes for the primary prevention of dementia, and highlight challenges and provide recommendations for future research to estimate its cost-effectiveness. METHODS: We searched the databases PubMed, MODEM, CEA and NHS for publications on the cost-consequence, -effectiveness, -utility or -benefit analysis of (hypothetical) interventions to reduce the risk of developing dementia for persons without dementia, and described the study characteristics. RESULTS: Three publications described the evaluation of a hypothetical risk reduction due to physical activity or a multidomain intervention programme. Two studies reported a reduction of care costs. One study yielded two scenarios of increased care costs and one scenario of reduced care costs. Only one study reported the impact in QALY terms, and found a QALY gain. CONCLUSION: A few studies have evaluated a hypothetical multidomain prevention intervention, and reported that primary dementia prevention is potentially cost-saving or cost-effective. Various challenges remain to evaluate the health-economic impact of prevention interventions, including extrapolation of short-term trial effects, care costs in the dementia-free and life years gained, and accurate representation of usual care. We recommend extensive sensitivity analyses to examine the impact of assumptions regarding these aspects on the outcomes of cost-effectiveness studies.

Assessing cost-effectiveness of early intervention in Alzheimer's disease: An open-source modeling framework.

INTRODUCTION: We develop a framework to model disease progression across Alzheimer's disease (AD) and to assess the cost-effectiveness of future disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD. METHODS: Using data from the US National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center, we apply survival analysis to estimate transition from predementia to AD dementia and ordered probit regression to estimate transitions across AD dementia stages. We investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical treatment scenario for people in MCI due to AD. RESULTS: We present an open-access model-based decision-analytic framework. Assuming a modest DMT treatment effect in MCI, we predict extended life expectancy and a reduction in time with AD dementia. DISCUSSION: Any future DMT for AD is expected to pose significant economic challenges across all health-care systems, and decision-analytic modeling will be required to assess costs and outcomes. Further developments are needed to inform these health policy considerations.