Effects of Outdoor Temperature on Blood Pressure in a Prospective Cohort of Northwest China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#The relationship between outdoor temperature and blood pressure (BP) has been inconclusive. We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study in northwestern China to investigate the effect of outdoor temperature on BP and effect modification by season.@*Methods@#A total of 32,710 individuals who participated in both the baseline survey and the first follow-up in 2011-2015 were included in the study. A linear mixed-effect model and generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) were applied to estimate the association between outdoor temperature and BP after adjusting for confounding variables.@*Results@#The mean differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) between summer and winter were 3.5 mmHg and 2.75 mmHg, respectively. After adjusting for individual characteristics, meteorological factors and air pollutants, a significant increase in SBP and DBP was observed for lag 06 day and lag 04 day, a 0.28 mmHg (95% @*Conclusions@#This study demonstrated a significant negative association between outdoor temperature and BP in a high-altitude environment of northwest China. Moreover, BP showed a significant seasonal variation. The association between BP and temperature differed by season and individuals' demographic characteristics (age, gender, BMI), unhealthy behaviors (smoking and alcohol consumption), and chronic disease status (CVDs, hypertension, and diabetes).

Application and comparison of residual autoregressive model and Holt’s two-parameter exponential smoothing model in infant mortality prediction in some countries along the Belt and Road Initiative / 中华疾病控制杂志

@# Objective To explore the application of residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model in the prediction of infant mortality rate in some countries along the “Belt and Road” (China-Indo-China Peninsula Economic Corridor). Methods The time series data of infant mortality rate in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, and China for 1978-2013 were used as training set to fit residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model. The 2014-2016 data was used as the validation set to compare the performance of model prediction. Results The akaike information criterion (AIC) value of the residual autoregressive model was superior to Holt's two-parameter exponential model. Both prediction models showed high accuracy, and most evaluation indicators (absolute error and relative error) of residual autoregressive prediction model were smaller than Holt's two-parameter exponential model. The residual autoregressive models of Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia were better than the Holt’s two-parameter exponential model for the infant mortality rate(IMR) prediction in different years. Conclusions The residual autoregressive model and Holt's two-parameter exponential model performed well in infant mortality rate prediction in some countries along the China-Indo-china Peninsula Economic Corridor. The residual autoregressive model has better fitting effect. The residual autoregressive model for infant mortality prediction is superior to the Holt two-parameter exponential model in most countries in most years.

Influence factors and predictive ability of a risk prediction model for carotid atherosclerosis in a follow-up population / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To explore factors influencing the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis in different genders so as to provide reference for the specific prevention of the disease. Methods A nested case-control study was conducted to analyze factors influencing the incidence of carotid atherosclerosis in Jinchang cohort population who were randomly selected through stratified sampling by age and followed up. A risk prediction model was established and the goodness of fit was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC). Results The standardized incidence of carotid atherosclerosis in this follow-up population was 12.32%, and the incidence rate of males (13.65%) was greater than that of females (11.29%). The difference was statistically significant ( 2=4.267, P<0.001). Age, education, elevated systolic blood pressure, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were common risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in both men and women. Elevated fasting plasma glucose (OR=2.556, 95% CI: 1.618-4.038) and elevated triglyceride (OR=1.535, 95% CI: 1.058-2.227) were only associated with men. Abdominal obesity (OR=1.414, 95% CI: 1.013-1.974) was only associated with women. The area under ROC of male and female prediction models was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.815-0.856) and 0.809 (95% CI: 0.788-0.831), respectively. The sensitivity was 78.0% and 78.9%, the specificity was 78.8% and 73.1%, and the diagnostic coincidence rate was 91.3% and 82.4%, respectively. Conclusions There are different risk factors for carotid atherosclerosis in males and females, and targeted prevention and control measures should be taken according to gender. The risk prediction model established by Logistic regression had certain guiding value.

Estimation Study of New Cancer Cases and Deaths in Wuwei, Hexi Corridor Region, China, 2018 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Population-based cancer registration data were collected to estimate the cancer incidence and mortality in Wuwei, Hexi Corridor Region, China in 2018. We used the 2011-2013 data to predict the number of new cases and deaths in 2018 and the 2003-2013 data to analyze trends in cancer incidence and mortality. The goal is to enable cancer prevention and control directions. Our results indicated that stomach cancer is the most common cancer. For all cancers combined, the incidence and mortality rates showed significantly increasing trends (+2.63% per year; P < 0.05 and +1.9% per year; P < 0.05). This study revealed a significant cancer burden among the population of this area. Cancer screening and prevention should be performed after an epidemiological study of the cause of the cancer is completed.

Heavy Metal Assessment among Chinese Nonferrous Metal-exposed Workers from the Jinchang Cohort Study / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Environmental exposure to heavy metals has been linked to a wide range of human health hazards. We detected the levels of 15 metals in urine samples from 500 representative sub-samples in an ongoing occupational cohort study (Jinchang Cohort) to directly evaluate metal exposure levels. Fifteen metals, namely As, Ba, Be, Cd, Cs, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Se, Tl, U, and Zn, were detected by inductively coupled plasma quadruple mass spectrometry. The results showed that median creatinine adjustment and geometric mean urinary metal levels were higher in the heavy metal-exposed group, except Se and Zn, than other reported general or occupational populations. Further studies should address the effects of heavy metals on human health.

Dynamic Changes in DNA Damage and Repair Biomarkers with Employment Length among Nickel Smelting Workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Our study explored the dynamic changes in and the relationship between the DNA damage marker 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) and the DNA repair marker 8-hydroxyguanine DNA glycosidase 1 (hOGG1) according to the length of occupational employment in nickel smelting workers. One hundred forty nickel-exposed smelting workers and 140 age-matched unexposed office workers were selected from the Jinchang cohort. The 8-OHdG levels in smelting workers was significantly higher than in office workers (Z=-8.688, P<0.05) and the 8-OHdG levels among nickel smelting workers in the 10-14 y employment length category was significantly higher than among all peers. The hOGG1 levels among smelting workers were significantly lower than those of non-exposed workers (Z=-8.948, P<0.05). There were significant differences between employment length and hOGG1 levels, with subjects employed in nickel smelting for 10-14 y showing the highest levels of hOGG1. Correlation analysis showed positive correlations between 8-OHdG and hOGG1 levels (r=0.413; P<0.01). DNA damage was increased with employment length among nickel smelting workers and was related to the inhibition of hOGG1 repair capacity.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality in the Jinchang Cohort, China, 2001-2010 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To describe the baseline data of cancers in the Jinchang Cohort, this paper examined trends in cancer mortality among adults investigated in Jinchang, Gansu province from 2001 to 2010.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Mortality data were collected from company departments through administrative documents, death certificates, etc. Trend analyses of cancer mortality were performed on the basis of 925 cancer deaths between 2001 and 2010.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The crude mortality rate of cancer continuously increased from 161.86 per 100,000 in 2001 to 315.32 per 100,000 in 2010, with an average increase of 7.69% per year in the Jinchang Cohort (16.41% in females compared to 6.04% in males), but the age-standardized mortality rate increased only in females. Thirteen leading cancers accounted for 92.10% of all cancer deaths. The five leading causes of cancer mortality in males were lung, gastric, liver, esophageal, and colorectal cancer, whereas those in females were lung, liver, gastric, breast, and esophageal cancer.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The overall cancer mortality rate increased from 2001 to 2010 in the Jinchang Cohort, with greater rate of increase in females than in males. Lung, breast, and gastric cancer, in that order, were the leading causes of increased cancer mortality in females.</p>

Metal Exposure and Risk of Diabetes and Prediabetes among Chinese Occupational Workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To study the association between metal exposure and risk of diabetes and prediabetes among Chinese workers exposed to metals.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We used data obtained from the baseline survey of the Jinchang Cohort Study of workers in Jinchang Industry, the largest nickel production company in China. A total of 42,122 workers ⋝20 years of age were included in the study. A standardized, structured questionnaire was used to collect epidemiological information. Physical examinations and laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the health status of the participants and to measure various biomarkers including blood sugar, lipids, and urinary metal concentrations. Logistic regression was used to study the association between occupational groups categorized according to the measured metal levels (office workers, low-level; mining/production workers, mid-level; and smelting/refining workers, high-level) and risk of diabetes and prediabetes.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The overall prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes was 7.5% and 16.8%, respectively. The adjusted odds ratios for diabetes among mining/production workers and smelting/refining workers compared to office workers were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.7) and 3.8 (95% CI: 3.4, 4.3), respectively. No association was observed between these occupational groups and prediabetes in this study.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Occupations associated with higher levels of metal exposure were associated with an increased risk of diabetes in this cohort. More studies are needed to confirm this observed association.</p>

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Chinese nickel-exposed workers / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) was investigated in Chinese nickel-exposed workers. A total of 35 104 subjects were enrolled in this study. The age-adjusted prevalence of MS, BMI⋝25, diabetes, hypertension, and abnormal lipid was 13.9%, 29.5%, 12.8%, 27.5%, and 47.1%, respectively. The prevalence of BMI⋝25, hyperglycemia, and hypertension increased with the age of males and females, and was higher in males than in females (37.1% vs 21.5%, 15.9% vs 12.1%, 35.0% vs 24.3%, 54.3% vs 40.4%).

Nickel-exposed workers in China: a cohort study / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

There are more than 50 000 workers in Jinchuan Group Co, Ltd (JNMC). Since all staff in JNMC are eligible for a medical examination every two years, only 23 484 nickel-exposed subjects who participated in medical examination were included in this study. Their data, collected from June 22, 2011 to September 28, 2012, in a comprehensive epidemiological survey and during medical examinations, permitted an extensive evaluation of the relation between metal exposure, gene, epigenetics and risk of human diseases. Their lifestyle investigation showed that the overall prevalence of current smokers, alcohol drinkers, and tea drinkers was 39.1%, 19.7%, and 55.2%, respectively. The prevalence of hypertension, allergic rhinitis and cholecystitis , the top 3 prevalent diseases, was 11.7%, 11.0%, and 8.9%, respectively.

Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases in Gansu province based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program, from 2006 to 2011 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the epidemiological trend on the number of influenzalike cases and to explore the feasibility of early warning systems of influenza in Gansu province.Methods Based on data from the influenza sentinel surveillance program,a sequence chart was used to analyze the epidemiological trend on the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases.Both control chart and mobile percentile method were used to select the threshold of premium alert for the ILI of sentinel surveillance program.Warning effects were assessed by statistical model.Results The prevalence of influenza were both low in 2007 and 2008.Alert thresholds for ILI of Sentinel surveillance was built.The thresholds were higher alert in winter,but lower in summer.Both Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Model and Multiplicative Seasonal ARMA Model (1,1,1) (0,1,0) were used to dynamically predict the weekly percentage of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI％)of 2011.The concordance rates (predicted=actual) were 100％ for both of them.According to the RMSE values,the dynamically predicted effect of the seasonal exponential smoothing model was superior to ARIMA.Conclusion Dynamic prediction on the number of influenza-like cases could reflect the epidemiological trend of influenza in Gansu province,but with some limitations.

Screening on Common Pathogens in Newborn Infants with Low Body Weight and Pneumonis / 实用儿科临床杂志

Objective To explore the association between the infection of human cytomegalovirus(HCMV),herpes simplex virus typeⅠ(HSV-Ⅰ),HSV-Ⅱ,toxoplasma(TOX) and serum hepatitis B virus(HBV)these 5 pathogens and low body weight and pneumonia,and explore the clinical value of nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) examining newborns infected with pathogens.Methods Forty-six newborn infants with low weight and 66 newborn infants with pneumonia were selected.And 1 mL pripheral blood of every newborn infant was drawn.Classic phenol-chloroform-isoamyl alcohol-protease digested,after neonatal serum extraction of DNA in peripheral blood through 2 pairs of pri-mers,the outer primer amplified larger DNA fragments and the inner primer amplified small fragments,in the amplified products.HCMV,HSV-Ⅰ,HSV-Ⅱ,TOX and HBV of the viral DNA in highly conservative district to design primer respectively and amplify its viral DNA,nested PCR was used to detect of these pathogens DNA in infants of low body weight and pneumonia,and to detect positive rate of infection.Screening for birth defects in infants in these virus infection.SPSS 10.0 software was used to analyze the relationship between infection of 5 pathogens.Results The infective rate of HCMV in 46 infants with low body quality was 91.3%,the infective rate of HSV-Ⅰwas 8.7%,the infective rate of HSV-Ⅱwas 15.2%,the infective rate of TOX was 8.7%,and the infective rate of HBV was 15.2%.Among 66 infants with pneumonia,the infective rate of HCMV was 83.3%,the infective rate of HSV-Ⅰwas 6.1%,the infective rate of HSV-Ⅱwas 16.7%,the infective rate of TOX was 6.1%,and the infective rate of HBV was 7.6%.The infective rate of HCMV was higher than that of other 4 pathogens,these infection rates were different statistically in these 5 kinds of pathogens(Pa=0).Conclusions Five kinds of pathogens both low pathosens screening is necessary newborns infants with low body weight and pneumonia,and for the early diagnosis and prevention of these pathogens.