Development and validation of prediction models for fetal growth restriction and birthweight: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Fetal growth restriction is associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early identification of women having at-risk fetuses can reduce perinatal adverse outcomes. Objectives: To assess the predictive performance of existing models predicting fetal growth restriction and birthweight, and if needed, to develop and validate new multivariable models using individual participant data. Design: Individual participant data meta-analyses of cohorts in International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, decision curve analysis and health economics analysis. Participants: Pregnant women at booking. External validation of existing models (9 cohorts, 441,415 pregnancies); International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications model development and validation (4 cohorts, 237,228 pregnancies). Predictors: Maternal clinical characteristics, biochemical and ultrasound markers. Primary outcomes: fetal growth restriction defined as birthweight <10th centile adjusted for gestational age and with stillbirth, neonatal death or delivery before 32 weeks' gestation birthweight. Analysis: First, we externally validated existing models using individual participant data meta-analysis. If needed, we developed and validated new International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models using random-intercept regression models with backward elimination for variable selection and undertook internal-external cross-validation. We estimated the study-specific performance (c-statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large) for each model and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was quantified using τ2 and 95% prediction intervals. We assessed the clinical utility of the fetal growth restriction model using decision curve analysis, and health economics analysis based on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 2008 model. Results: Of the 119 published models, one birthweight model (Poon) could be validated. None reported fetal growth restriction using our definition. Across all cohorts, the Poon model had good summary calibration slope of 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.96) with slight overfitting, and underpredicted birthweight by 90.4 g on average (95% confidence interval 37.9 g to 142.9 g). The newly developed International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model included maternal age, height, parity, smoking status, ethnicity, and any history of hypertension, pre-eclampsia, previous stillbirth or small for gestational age baby and gestational age at delivery. This allowed predictions conditional on a range of assumed gestational ages at delivery. The pooled apparent c-statistic and calibration were 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.51 to 1.0), and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.23), respectively. The model showed positive net benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 1% and 90%. In addition to the predictors in the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model, the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight model included maternal weight, history of diabetes and mode of conception. Average calibration slope across cohorts in the internal-external cross-validation was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.23) with no evidence of overfitting. Birthweight was underestimated by 9.7 g on average (95% confidence interval -154.3 g to 173.8 g). Limitations: We could not externally validate most of the published models due to variations in the definitions of outcomes. Internal-external cross-validation of our International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model was limited by the paucity of events in the included cohorts. The economic evaluation using the published National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 2008 model may not reflect current practice, and full economic evaluation was not possible due to paucity of data. Future work: International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models' performance needs to be assessed in routine practice, and their impact on decision-making and clinical outcomes needs evaluation. Conclusion: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction and International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight models accurately predict fetal growth restriction and birthweight for various assumed gestational ages at delivery. These can be used to stratify the risk status at booking, plan monitoring and management. Study registration: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019135045. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/148/07) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 14. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

One in ten babies is born small for their age. A third of such small babies are considered to be 'growth-restricted' as they have complications such as dying in the womb (stillbirth) or after birth (newborn death), cerebral palsy, or needing long stays in hospital. When growth restriction is suspected in fetuses, they are closely monitored and often delivered early to avoid complications. Hence, it is important that we identify growth-restricted babies early to plan care. Our goal was to provide personalised and accurate estimates of the mother's chances of having a growth-restricted baby and predict the baby's weight if delivered at various time points in pregnancy. To do so, first we tested how accurate existing risk calculators ('prediction models') were in predicting growth restriction and birthweight. We then developed new risk-calculators and studied their clinical and economic benefits. We did so by accessing the data from individual pregnant women and their babies in our large database library (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications). Published risk-calculators had various definitions of growth restriction and none predicted the chances of having a growth-restricted baby using our definition. One predicted baby's birthweight. This risk-calculator performed well, but underpredicted the birthweight by up to 143 g. We developed two new risk-calculators to predict growth-restricted babies (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction) and birthweight (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight). Both calculators accurately predicted the chances of the baby being born with growth restriction, and its birthweight. The birthweight was underpredicted by <9.7 g. The calculators performed well in both mothers predicted to be low and high risk. Further research is needed to determine the impact of using these calculators in practice, and challenges to implementing them in practice. Both International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction and International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight risk calculators will inform healthcare professionals and empower parents make informed decisions on monitoring and timing of delivery.

Utilizing Consumer Technology (Apple's ResearchKit) for Medical Studies by Patients and Researchers: Proof of Concept of the Novel Platform REach.

Medical research suffers from declining response rates, hampering the quest for answers to clinically relevant research questions. Furthermore, objective data on a number of important study variables, such as physical activity, sleep, and nutrition, are difficult to collect with the traditional methods of data collection. Reassuringly, current technological developments could overcome these limitations. In addition, they may enable research being established by patients themselves provided that they have access to a user-friendly platform. Using the features of Apple's ResearchKit, an informed consent procedure, questionnaire, linkage with HealthKit data, and "active tasks" may be administered through a publicly available app. However, ResearchKit requires programming skills, which many patients and researchers lack. Therefore, we developed a platform (REach) with drag and drop functionalities producing a ready-to-use code that can be embedded in existing or new apps. Participants in the pilot study were very satisfied with data collection through REach and measurement error was minimal. In the era of declining participation rates in observational studies and patient involvement, new methods of data collection, such as REach, are essential to ensure that clinically relevant research questions are validly answered. Due to linkage with HealthKit and active tasks, objective health data that are impossible to collect with the traditional methods of data collection can easily be collected.

Mobile Apps for Blood Pressure Monitoring: Systematic Search in App Stores and Content Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Using a mobile app for self-management could make it easier for patients to get insight into their blood pressure patterns. However, little is known about the availability, quality, and features of mobile apps targeting blood pressure. OBJECTIVE: The goal of the research was to determine the availability, functionality, and quality of mobile apps that could be used for blood pressure monitoring purposes. METHODS: A systematic app search was performed based on the standards for systematic reviews. We searched the Dutch official app stores for Android and iOS platforms using predefined keywords and included all English and Dutch mobile apps targeting blood pressure. Two independent assessors determined eligibility and quality of the apps using the 5-point Mobile App Rating Scale (MARS). Quality scores of the apps with and without 17 a priori selected characteristics were compared using independent sample t tests. RESULTS: A total of 184 apps (104 Android, 80 iOS) met the inclusion criteria. The mean overall MARS score was 2.63 (95% CI 2.55-2.71) for Android and 2.64 (95% CI 2.56-2.71) for iOS. The apps Bloeddruk (4.1) and AMICOMED BP (3.6) had the highest quality scores on the Android and iOS platforms, respectively. Of the app characteristics recorded, only pricing, in-app advertisements, and local data storage were not associated with the quality scores. In only 3.8% (7/184) of the apps, involvement of medical experts in its development was mentioned, whereas none of the apps was formally evaluated with results published in a peer-reviewed journal. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an overview of the best apps currently available in the app stores and important key features for self-management that can be used by health care providers and patients with hypertension to identify a suitable app targeting blood pressure monitoring. However, the majority of the apps targeting blood pressure monitoring were of poor quality. Therefore, it is important to involve medical experts in the developmental stage of health-related mobile apps to improve the quality of these apps.

Glucose Control, Disease Burden, and Educational Gaps in People With Type 1 Diabetes: Exploratory Study of an Integrated Mobile Diabetes App.

BACKGROUND: Self-monitoring and self-management, crucial for optimal glucose control in type 1 diabetes, requires many disease-related decisions per day and imposes a substantial disease burden on people with diabetes. Innovative technologies that integrate relevant measurements may offer solutions that support self-management, decrease disease burden, and benefit diabetes control. OBJECTIVE: The objective of our study was to evaluate a prototype integrated mobile phone diabetes app in people with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: In this exploratory study, we developed an app that contained cloud-stored log functions for glucose, carbohydrates (including a library), insulin, planned exercise, and mood, combined with a bolus calculator and communication functions. Adults with diabetes tested the app for 6 weeks. We assessed the feasibility of app use, user experiences, perceived disease burden (through questionnaires), insulin dose and basal to bolus ratio, mean glucose level, hemoglobin A1c, and number of hypoglycemic events. RESULTS: A total of 19 participants completed the study, resulting in 5782 data entries. The most frequently used feature was logging blood glucose, insulin, and carbohydrates. Mean diabetes-related emotional problems (measured with the Problem Areas in Diabetes scale) scores decreased from 14.4 (SD 10.0) to 12.2 (SD 10.3; P=.04), and glucose control improved, with hemoglobin A1c decreasing from 7.9% (mean 62.3, SD 8 mmol/mol) to 7.6% (mean 59.8, SD 7 mmol/mol; P=.047). The incidence of hypoglycemic events did not change. Participants were generally positive about the app, rating it as "refreshing," and as providing structure by reinforcing insulin-dosing principles. The app revealed substantial knowledge gaps. Logged data enabled additional detailed analyses. CONCLUSIONS: An integrated mobile diabetes app has the potential to improve diabetes self-management and provide tailored educational support, which may decrease disease burden and benefit diabetes control.

Neurodevelopmental problems at 18 months among children exposed to paracetamol in utero: a propensity score matched cohort study.

Background: Previous studies showed that children exposed to paracetamol during fetal life might have an increased risk of neurodevelopmental problems. Since paracetamol is one of the most commonly used medications during pregnancy, even small increases in the risk of neurodevelopmental problems may have considerable implications for public health. Methods: Using data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study, we applied propensity score (PS) matching to examine associations between prenatal paracetamol exposure and neurodevelopmental problems among children at 18 months of age. Paracetamol use was classified into short-term (< 28 days) and long-term (≥ 28 days) of exposure. Results: Of the 51 200 pregnancies included in our study, 40.5% of mothers ( n = 20 749) used paracetamol at least once during pregnancy. In the PS-matched analyses, long-term paracetamol exposure during pregnancy was associated with communication problems [odds ratio (OR): 1.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98-1.95) and delayed motor milestone attainment (OR: 1.35, 95% CI 1.07-1.70). We did not observe increased risks after short-term exposure. Sensitivity analyses for several indications showed similar effects as the PS-matched analyses, suggesting no confounding by indication. Conclusion: Long-term exposure to paracetamol in utero was associated with modestly increased risks of motor milestone delay and impaired communication skills among children at 18 months. Caution is warranted when considering long-term use of paracetamol during pregnancy; however, women with severe pain conditions should not be deprived of appropriate pharmacotherapy.