Functional Outcome After Nonoperative Management of Tibial Plateau Fractures in Skeletally Mature Patients: What Sizes of Gaps and Stepoffs Can be Accepted?

BACKGROUND: Gap and stepoff measurements provide information about fracture displacement and are used for clinical decision-making when choosing either operative or nonoperative management of tibial plateau fractures. However, there is no consensus about the maximum size of gaps and stepoffs on CT images and their relation to functional outcome in skeletally mature patients with tibial plateau fractures who were treated without surgery. Because this is important for patient counseling regarding treatment and prognosis, it is critical to identify the limits of gaps and stepoffs that are well tolerated. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) In patients treated nonoperatively for tibial plateau fractures, what is the association between initial fracture displacement, as measured by gaps and stepoffs at the articular surface on a CT image, and functional outcome? (2) What is the survivorship of the native joint, free from conversion to a total knee prosthesis, among patients with tibial plateau fractures who were treated without surgery? METHODS: A multicenter cross-sectional study was performed in all patients who were treated nonoperatively for a tibial plateau fracture between 2003 and 2018 in four trauma centers. All patients had a diagnostic CT scan, and a gap and/or stepoff more than 2 mm was an indication for recommending surgery. Some patients with gaps and/or stepoffs exceeding 2 mm might not have had surgery based on shared decision-making. Between 2003 and 2018, 530 patients were treated nonoperatively for tibial plateau fractures, of which 45 had died at follow-up, 30 were younger than 18 years at the time of injury, and 10 had isolated tibial eminence avulsions, leaving 445 patients for follow-up analysis. All patients were asked to complete the validated Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) questionnaire consisting of five subscales: symptoms, pain, activities of daily living (ADL), function in sports and recreation, and knee-related quality of life (QOL). The score for each subscale ranged from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better function. A total of 46% (203 of 445) of patients participated at a mean follow-up of 6 ± 3 years since injury. All knee radiographs and CT images were reassessed, fractures were classified, and gap and stepoff measurements were taken. Nonresponders did not differ much from responders in terms of age (53 ± 16 years versus 54 ± 20 years; p = 0.89), gender (70% [142 of 203] women versus 59% [142 of 242] women; p = 0.01), fracture classifications (Schatzker types and three-column concept), gaps (2.1 ± 1.3 mm versus 1.7 ± 1.6 mm; p = 0.02), and stepoffs (2.1 ± 2.2 mm versus 1.9 ± 1.7 mm; p = 0.13). In our study population, the mean gap was 2.1 ± 1.3 mm and stepoff was 2.1 ± 2.2 mm. The participating patients divided into groups with increasing fracture displacement based on gap and/or stepoff (< 2 mm, 2 to 4 mm, or > 4 mm), as measured on CT images. ANOVA was used to assess whether an increase in the initial fracture displacement was associated with poorer functional outcome. We estimated the survivorship of the knee free from conversion to total knee prosthesis at a mean follow-up of 5 years using a Kaplan-Meier survivorship estimator. RESULTS: KOOS scores in patients with a less than 2 mm, 2 to 4 mm, or greater than 4 mm gap did not differ (symptoms: 83 versus 83 versus 82; p = 0.98, pain: 85 versus 83 versus 86; p = 0.69, ADL: 87 versus 84 versus 89; p = 0.44, sport: 65 versus 64 versus 66; p = 0.95, QOL: 70 versus 71 versus 74; p = 0.85). The KOOS scores in patients with a less than 2 mm, 2 to 4 mm, or greater than 4 mm stepoff did not differ (symptoms: 84 versus 83 versus 77; p = 0.32, pain: 85 versus 85 versus 81; p = 0.66, ADL: 86 versus 87 versus 82; p = 0.54, sport: 65 versus 68 versus 56; p = 0.43, QOL: 71 versus 73 versus 61; p = 0.19). Survivorship of the knee free from conversion to total knee prosthesis at mean follow-up of 5 years was 97% (95% CI 94% to 99%). CONCLUSION: Patients with minimally displaced tibial plateau fractures who opt for nonoperative fracture treatment should be told that fracture gaps or stepoffs up to 4 mm, as measured on CT images, could result in good functional outcome. Therefore, the arbitrary 2-mm limit of gaps and stepoffs for tibial plateau fractures could be revisited. The survivorship of the native knee free from conversion to a total knee prosthesis was high. Large prospective cohort studies with high response rates are needed to learn more about the relationship between the degree of fracture displacement and functional recovery after tibial plateau fractures. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, prognostic study.

Association of P2Y(2) receptor SNPs with bone mineral density and osteoporosis risk in a cohort of Dutch fracture patients.

The P2Y(2) receptor is a G-protein-coupled receptor with adenosine 5'-triphosphate (and UTP) as natural ligands. It is thought to be involved in bone physiology in an anti-osteogenic manner. As several non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been identified within the P2Y(2) receptor gene in humans, we examined associations between genetic variations in the P2Y(2) receptor gene and bone mineral density (BMD) (i.e., osteoporosis risk), in a cohort of fracture patients. Six hundred and ninety women and 231 men aged ≥50 years, visiting an osteoporosis outpatient clinic at Maastricht University Medical Centre for standard medical follow-up after a recent fracture, were genotyped for three non-synonymous P2Y(2) receptor gene SNPs. BMD was measured at three locations (total hip, lumbar spine, and femoral neck) using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Differences in BMD between different genotypes were tested using analysis of covariance. In women, BMD values at all sites were significantly different between the genotypes for the Leu46Pro polymorphism, with women homozygous for the variant allele showing the highest BMD values (0.05 > p > 0.01). The Arg312Ser and Arg334Cys polymorphisms showed no differences in BMD values between the different genotypes. This is the first report that describes the association between the Leu46Pro polymorphism of the human P2Y(2) receptor and the risk of osteoporosis.

The role of the combination of bone and fall related risk factors on short-term subsequent fracture risk and mortality.

BACKGROUND: We analysed whether a combination of bone- and fall-related risk factors (RFs) in addition to a recent non-vertebral fracture (NVF) contributed to subsequent NVF risk and mortality during 2-years in patients who were offered fall and fracture prevention according to Dutch fracture- and fall-prevention guidelines. METHODS: 834 consecutive patients aged ≥50 years with a recent NVF who were included. We compared subgroups of patients according to the presence of bone RFs and/or fall RFs (group 1: only bone RFs; group 2: combination of bone and fall RFs; group 3: only fall RFs; group 4: no additional RFs). Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed adjusted for age, sex and baseline fracture location (major or minor). RESULTS: 57 (6.8%) had a subsequent NVF and 29 (3.5%) died within 2-years. Univariable Cox regression analysis showed that patients with the combination of bone and fall RFs had a 99% higher risk in subsequent fracture risk compared to all others (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.99; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.18-3.36) Multivariable analyses this was borderline not significant (HR 1.70; 95% CI: 0.99-2.93). No significant differences in mortality were found between the groups. CONCLUSION: Evaluation of fall RFs contributes to identifying patients with bone RFs at highest immediate risk of subsequent NVF in spite of guideline-based treatment. It should be further studied whether earlier and immediate prevention following a NVF can decrease fracture risk in patients with a combination of bone and fall RFs.

What are the long-term patient-reported and clinical outcomes after lateral clavicle fractures? A cross-sectional study of 619 patients.

BACKGROUND: Lateral clavicle fractures account for 17% of all clavicle fractures and large studies comparing nonoperative and operative treatment are lacking. Therefore, patients cannot be properly informed about different treatment options and prognosis. We assessed long-term patient-reported and clinical outcomes in patients with lateral clavicle fractures. METHODS: A multicenter cross-sectional study was performed in patients treated for lateral clavicle fractures between 2007 and 2016. Primary outcome included patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) (DASH, EQ-5D, return to work, sports, cosmetics and satisfaction). Questionnaires were sent to 619 eligible patients, of which 353 (57%) responded after a mean follow-up of 7.4 ± 2.8 years. Secondary outcome included adverse events and secondary interventions. Outcomes after nonoperative vs. operative treatment (stratified by nondisplaced vs. displaced fractures) were compared using Student t tests and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Nondisplaced lateral clavicle fractures were treated nonoperatively and resulted in excellent PROMs. Six patients (3%) developed a nonunion. For displaced lateral clavicle fractures, no differences were found between nonoperative and operative treatment with regard to DASH score (7.8 ± 12.5 vs 5.4 ± 8.6), EQ-5D (0.91 ± 0.13 vs 0.91 ± 0.09), pain (0.9 ± 1.7 vs. 0.8 ± 1.6), patient satisfaction (90.1 ± 25.5 vs. 86.3 ± 20.4), return to work (96.4% vs. 100%) and sports (61.4% vs. 62.3%). The absolute risk of nonunion in patients with a displaced fracture was higher after nonoperative than operative treatment (20.2% vs. 2.9%; p = 0.002), with six patients needing treatment to avoid one nonunion. CONCLUSIONS: Nondisplaced lateral clavicle fractures should be treated nonoperatively and result in good functional outcomes and high union rates. For displaced fractures, neither nonoperative nor operative treatment seems superior. Patients opting for nonoperative treatment should be informed that nonunion occurs in 20% of patients, but only half of these need additional operative treatment. Patients who opt for surgery should be told that nonunion occurs in only 3%; however, most patients (56%) will require secondary intervention for elective implant removal. Regardless of the type of treatment, no differences in functional outcome and PROMs should be expected at long-term follow-up.

Ty-raps in trauma: a novel closing technique of extremity fasciotomy wounds.

The challenge of closing extremity fasciotomy wounds is well known to every trauma and orthopedic surgeon. We developed a new, easy, and inexpensive dermatotraction technique based on the simple use of Ty-Raps and report on the first pilot study using this novel technique for the closure of 23 extremity fasciotomy wounds. The Ty-Rap system consists of several combinations of two Ty-Raps and four surgical staples. Immediately after fasciotomy, the system is secured to the skin by the surgical staples, and once the swelling of the affected limb is subsided, the Ty-Raps are tightened every 24 hours to 48 hours until full approximation of the skin edges is achieved. We recorded the time to closure of the wound, the time to removal of the Ty-Raps, and the complications related to the procedure. Also, a cost analyses was calculated. The mean time of approximation of the skin was 6.3 days, and after a further 9.4 days, the Ty-Raps could be removed. The majority of the wounds (91%) healed without complications, and only one patient in our series required a secondary surgical procedure for the closure of one fasciotomy wound. The total cost to close a fasciotomy wound of 30 cm with the use of Ty-Raps is US dollar 23.33. We regard the use of Ty-Raps a good alternative for the current closing techniques of extremity fasciotomy wounds. We value its low cost, general availability, effectiveness, and the fact that, in this pilot study, both the application and the tightening of the Ty-Raps were well tolerated by our patients with a minimal need for secondary procedures. Knowledge of this technique is a useful adjunct to the existing surgical array for every trauma and orthopedic surgeon for the closure of extremity fasciotomy wounds, especially in austere or military environments.

Efficacy of Nutritional Intervention in Elderly After Hip Fracture: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: Malnutrition after hip fracture is associated with increased rehabilitation time, complications, and mortality. We assessed the effect of intensive 3 month nutritional intervention in elderly after hip fracture on length of stay (LOS). Methods: Open-label, randomized controlled trial. Exclusion criteria: age < 55 years, bone disease, life expectancy < 1 year, bedridden, using oral nutritional supplements (ONS) before hospitalization, and cognitive impairment. Intervention: weekly dietetic consultation, energy-protein-enriched diet, and ONS (400 mL per day) for 3 months. Control: usual nutritional care. Primary outcome: total LOS in hospital and rehabilitation clinic, including readmissions over 6 months (Cox regression adjusted for confounders); hazard ratio (HR) < 1.0 reflects longer LOS in the intervention group. Secondary outcomes: nutritional and functional status, cognition, quality of life, postoperative complications (6 months); subsequent fractures and all-cause mortality (1 and 5 years). Effect modification by baseline nutritional status was also tested. Results: One hundred fifty-two patients were randomized (73 intervention, 79 control). Median total LOS was 34.0 days (range 4-185 days) in the intervention group versus control 35.5 days (3-183 days; plogrank = .80; adjusted hazard ratio (adjHR): 0.98; 95% CI: 0.68-1.41). Hospital LOS: 12.0 days (4-56 days) versus 11.0 days (3-115 days; p = .19; adjHR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.53-1.06) and LOS in rehabilitation clinics: 19.5 days (0-174 days) versus 18.5 days (0-168 days; p = .82; adjHR: 1.04; 95% CI: 0.73-1.48). The intervention improved nutritional intake/status at 3, but not at 6 months, and did not affect any other outcome. No difference in intervention effect between malnourished and well-nourished patients was found. Conclusions: Intensive nutritional intervention after hip fracture improved nutritional intake and status, but not LOS or clinical outcomes. Paradigms underlying nutritional intervention in elderly after hip fracture may have to be reconsidered.

Risk of falling in patients with a recent fracture.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a history of a fracture have an increased risk for future fractures, even in short term. The aim of this study was to assess the number of patients with falls and to identify fall risk factors that predict the risk of falling in the first three months after a clinical fracture. METHODS: Prospective observational study with 3 months of follow-up in a large European academic and regional hospital. In 277 consenting women and men aged > or = 50 years and with no dementia and not receiving treatment for osteoporosis who presented to hospital with a clinical fracture, fall risk factors were assessed according to the guidelines on fall prevention in the Netherlands. Follow-up information on falls and fractures was collected by monthly telephone interview. Incidence of falls and odds ratio's (OR, with 95% confidence intervals) were calculated. RESULTS: 512 consecutive patients with a fracture were regarded for analysis, 87 were not eligible for inclusion and 137 patients were excluded. No follow-up data were available for 11 patients. Therefore full analysis was possible in 277 patients.A new fall incident was reported by 42 patients (15%), of whom five had a fracture. Of the 42 fallers, 32 had one new fall and 10 had two or more. Multivariate analysis in the total group with sex, age, ADL difficulties, urine incontinence and polypharmacy showed that sex and ADL were significant fall risk factors. Women had an OR of 3.02 (95% CI 1.13-8.06) and patients with ADL-difficulties had an OR of 2.50 (95% CI 1.27-4.93). Multivariate analysis in the female group with age, ADL difficulties, polypharmacy and presence of orthostatic hypotension indicated that polypharmacy was the predominant risk factor (OR 2.51; 95% CI: 1.19 - 5.28). The incidence of falls was 35% in women with low ADL score and polypharmacy compared to 15% in women without these risk factors (OR 3.56: CI 1.47 - 8.67). CONCLUSION: 15% of patients reported a new fall and 5 patients suffered a new fracture within 3 months. Female sex and low ADL score were the major risk factors and, in addition, polypharmacy in women.

The fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinic: an effective strategy for improving implementation of an osteoporosis guideline.

BACKGROUND: Clinical screening for osteoporosis in women aged over 50 years following a fracture is advocated by all guidelines on osteoporosis, but such attitude is widely reported to be inadequate. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of a strategy comparing referral for a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan as part of the osteoporosis guideline by a dedicated osteoporosis nurse with referral in hospitals without the presence of an osteoporosis nurse. METHODS: We retrospectively compared one reference hospital with five surrounding hospitals in the Netherlands. During a 2-week period, all female patients aged over 50 years who presented with a fracture at the emergency department of the six hospitals were included. Follow-up was minimal 11 weeks. The primary outcome was the referral for DXA measurement. RESULTS: In total, 135 patients were included, of whom 33 were seen in the reference hospital and 102 in the surrounding hospitals. In both groups, mean age and fracture location were similar. In the reference hospital, 14 patients qualified for DXA measurement, of whom 10 patients effectively underwent a DXA scan (71%). In the surrounding hospitals, 78 patients qualified for DXA measurement, of whom only three effectively underwent a DXA scan (4%). Taking into account a refusal percentage for DXA of 33% as was found in the reference centre, 47 patients in the surrounding hospitals should have been qualified for DXA measurement. Thus, successful referral in the surrounding hospitals was three out of 47 (6%) patients. The presence of an osteoporosis nurse did have a significant influence on the amount of DXA scans after fractures [RR 11 (95% CI: 3.6-35.1)]. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that referral for DXA is low in surrounding hospitals, and suggests that the presence of an osteoporosis nurse in the reference hospital significantly increased the number of patients receiving adequate osteoporosis screening with DXA measurement after a recent fracture. With this strategy patients who are at risk of osteoporosis are identified effectively, after which treatment can be started, in order to reduce the risk of future fractures.

Fracture liaison service: impact on subsequent nonvertebral fracture incidence and mortality.

BACKGROUND: A fracture liaison service model of care is widely recommended and applied, but data on its effectiveness are scarce. Therefore, the risk of subsequent nonvertebral fractures and mortality within two years after a nonvertebral fracture was analyzed in patients who presented to a hospital with a fracture liaison service and a hospital without a fracture liaison service. METHODS: In 2005 to 2006, all consecutive patients with an age of fifty years or older presenting with a nonvertebral fracture were included. In the group that presented to a hospital without a fracture liaison service (the no-FLS group), only standard fracture care procedures were followed to address proper fracture-healing. In the group that presented to a hospital with a fracture liaison service (the FLS group), dual x-ray absorptiometry scans and laboratory testing were performed, and if applicable, patients were treated according to the Dutch guideline for osteoporosis. The risk for subsequent nonvertebral fracture and mortality were analyzed using multivariable Cox regression models with adjustments for age, sex, and baseline fracture location. RESULTS: In total, 1412 patients presented to the fracture liaison service (73.2% were women, and the mean age was 71.1 years), and 1910 underwent standard fracture care (69.8% were women, and the mean age was 69.5 years). After adjustment for age, sex, and baseline fracture location, patients who attended the fracture liaison service had a significantly lower mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53 to 0.79) over two years of follow-up. The subsequent nonvertebral fracture risk was also significantly lower in the patients in the FLS group, but this effect was time-dependent, with a hazard ratio of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.64 to 1.10) at twelve months and 0.44 (95% CI: 0.25 to 0.79) at twenty-four months. CONCLUSIONS: Patients seen at the fracture liaison service had a significantly lower mortality and subsequently a lower risk of nonvertebral fracture than those not seen at the fracture liaison service, with a reduction of 35% and 56%, respectively, over two years of follow-up. A fracture liaison service appears to be a successful approach to reduce the number of subsequent fractures and premature mortality in this cohort of patients.

Integrated nutritional intervention in the elderly after hip fracture. A process evaluation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Within a multicentre randomized controlled trial aimed at improving the nutritional status and increase the speed of recovery of elderly hip fracture patients, we performed a process evaluation to investigate the feasibility of the intervention within the present Dutch health care system. METHODS: Patients in the intervention group received nutritional counseling during 10 contacts. Oral nutritional supplements were advised as needed until three months after hip fracture surgery. The intervention was evaluated with respect to dieticians' adherence to the study protocol, content of nutritional counseling, and patients' adherence to recommendations given. RESULTS: We included 66 patients (mean age of 76, range 55-92 years); 74% women. Eighty-three percent of patients received all 10 contacts as planned, but in 62% of the patients one or more telephone calls had to be replaced by face to face contacts. Nutritional counseling was complete in 91% of contacts. Oral nutritional supplementation was needed for a median period of 76 days; 75% of the patients took the oral nutritional supplements as recommended. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional counseling in elderly hip fracture patients through face to face contacts and telephone calls is feasible. However, individual tailoring of the intervention is recommended. The majority of hip fracture patients needed >2 months oral nutritional supplements to meet their nutritional requirements. The trial was registered at clincialtrails.gov as NCT00523575.

Impact of guideline implementation by a fracture nurse on subsequent fractures and mortality in patients presenting with non-vertebral fractures.

INTRODUCTION: Systematic implementation of guidelines in patients presenting with a fracture increases identification of patients at high risk for subsequent fractures and contributes to a decreased fracture risk. Its effect on prevention of subsequent fractures and on mortality has not been documented. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the implementation of specific guidelines on the risk of subsequent fractures and mortality in patients presenting with a non-vertebral fracture (NVF). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Before-after impact analysis in consecutive patients older than 50 years who were admitted to the hospital with a NVF during 2 periods: pre-intervention group (n = 1,920, enrolled in 1999-2001) and intervention group (n = 1,335, enrolled in 2004-2006). The intervention consisted of a dedicated fracture nurse who systematically offered fracture risk evaluation and treatment according to available guidelines. The 2-year absolute risk (AR) and hazard ratio's (HR, with 95% confidence interval (CI)) of subsequent NVFs and mortality were analysed between both groups after adjustment for age, sex and baseline fracture location by multivariable Cox regression and by intention-to-treat. RESULTS: The AR of subsequent fracture was 9.9% before and 6.7% after intervention, indicating a decrease of 35% in the risk of subsequent fracture (HR 0.65; CI: 0.51-0.84, after adjustment for age, sex and baseline fracture location) and 17.9% and 11.6%, respectively, for subsequent mortality, indicating a decrease of 33% in the risk of subsequent mortality (HR: 0.67; CI: 0.55-0.81, after adjustment for age, sex and baseline fracture location). CONCLUSIONS: Systematic implementation of guidelines for fracture prevention by a dedicated fracture nurse immediately after a NVF is associated with a significant reduction of the 2-year risk of subsequent NVF and mortality.

Bone Mineral Density is Not Correlated with One-Year Functional Outcome in Distal Radial Fractures: A Preliminary Study.

INTRODUCTION: The intrinsic stability of fractures related to soft tissue injury and the comminution of the metaphyseal part of the distal radius influence the chance of secondary displacement in distal radial fractures treated conservatively. A low bone mineral density may also contribute to this secondary displacement and could therefore play a role in functional outcome. This possible relation between functional outcome and bone mineral density is poorly studied. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with a unilateral conservatively treated distal radial fracture were assessed one year after their fracture with the DASH score (disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand) and the Cooney score. Fractures were classified according to the AO classification. Radial inclination, radial shift, radial tilt and ulnar variance were measured on the first and follow-up radiographies. Bone mineral densities of both the hip and lumbar spine were measured by DXA and expressed as T-scores. RESULTS: Fifty-four patients participated in this study (mean age 68 years). Osteoporosis (T-score ≤ -2.5) was present in 20 patients (37%), osteopenia (T-score of -1 to -2.5) in 30 patients (56%), and normal bone density (T-score > -1) in four patients (7%). The distribution of fracture types according to the AO classification showed 32 A-type fractures, eight B-type fractures and 14 C-type fractures. Both univariate linear and multivariate regression analysis with covariates of age, sex, body mass index and AO classification showed no significant correlation between T-score and functional outcome. CONCLUSION: The functional outcome of conservatively treated distal radial fractures in this study does not correlate with bone mineral density. Therefore, BMD measurement cannot be used to predict functional outcome in these patients.

Bone and fall-related fracture risks in women and men with a recent clinical fracture.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide fracture rates are increasing as a result of the aging population, and prevention, both primary and secondary, is an important public health goal. Therefore, we systematically analyzed risk factors in subjects with a recent clinical fracture. METHODS: All men and women over fifty years of age who had been treated in the emergency department of, or hospitalized at, our institution because of a recent fracture during a one-year period were offered the opportunity to undergo an evidence-based bone and fall-related risk-factor assessment and bone densitometry. The women included in this study were also compared with a group of postmenopausal women without a fracture history who had been included in another cohort study. RESULTS: Of the 940 consecutive patients, 797 (85%) were eligible for this study and 568 (60%) agreed to participate. The prevalence of fall-related risk factors (75% [95% confidence interval = 71% to 78%]; n = 425) and the prevalence of bone-related risk factors (53% [95% confidence interval = 49% to 57%]; n = 299) at the time of fracture were higher than the prevalence of osteoporosis (35% [95% confidence interval = 31% to 39%]; n = 201) as defined by a dual x-ray absorptiometry T score of

Risk of new clinical fractures within 2 years following a fracture.

INTRODUCTION: Clinical fractures are associated with an increased relative risk of future fractures, but the absolute risk and timing of new clinical fractures immediately after a clinical fracture have not been reported extensively. The study objective was to determine the absolute risk of subsequent clinical fractures within 2 years after a clinical fracture. METHODS: We analyzed clinical fracture data from a university hospital recruiting all fractures in the area between January 1999 and December 2001. Subjects were 2,419 male and female patients aged 50 years and older, with a total of 2,575 fractures. There were 139 patients with more than one simultaneous fracture. Mean age was 66 years for males and 72 for females. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of patients with new clinical fractures over 2 years was 10.8% (262/2,419). In the 262 patients with subsequent fractures, we observed a higher mean age, more females and more often multiple baseline fractures compared with the 2,157 patients without subsequent fractures. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that age, gender and having multiple baseline fractures contributed significantly to cumulative new fracture incidence. Cox regression showed that these variables independently contributed to a higher subsequent fracture incidence. New fracture incidence was higher with increasing age ( p <0.001; hazard ratio [HR] 1.2 per decade; confidence interval [CI] 1.1-1.3). Females had a new fracture incidence of 12.2% compared with 7.4% in males ( p =0.015; HR 1.5; CI 1.1-2.0). Patients with multiple baseline fractures had a new fracture incidence of 17.3% compared with 10.4% for subjects with one baseline fracture ( p =0.006; HR 1.8; CI 1.2-2.7). Of all clinical fractures occurring within 2 years after a clinical fracture, 60% occurred during the first year and 40% during the second year ( p =0.005). The absolute risk to develop an incident clinical fracture within 2 years after any clinical fracture was 10.8%. Increased age, female gender and the presence of multiple simultaneous fractures at baseline each independently increased the risk of incident fracture. Significantly more fractures occurred in the first year following the index fracture than in the second year. CONCLUSION: Altogether, these data support the need for early prevention of future fracture among individuals with a fracture after age 50, using interventions which have been shown to have a rapid anti-fracture benefit.