Climate change impacts on mesophotic regions of the Great Barrier Reef.

Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 °C above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 °C for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 °C under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 °C under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress.

Influence of microclimate and forest management on bat species faced with global change.

Climate refugia, areas where climate is expected to remain relatively stable, can offer a near-term safe haven for species sensitive to warming temperatures and drought. Understanding the influence of temperature, moisture, and disturbance on sensitive species is critical during this time of rapid climate change. Coastal habitats can serve as important refugia. Many of these areas consist of working forestlands, and there is a growing recognition that conservation efforts worldwide must consider the habitat value of working lands, in addition to protected areas, to effectively manage large landscapes that support biodiversity. The sensitivity of forest bats to climate and habitat disturbance makes them a useful indicator taxon. We tested how microclimate and forest management influence habitat use for 13 species of insectivorous bats in a large climate refugium in a global biodiversity hotspot. We examined whether bat activity during the summer dry season is greater in forests where coastal fog provides moisture and more stable temperatures across both protected mature stands and those regularly logged. Acoustic monitoring was conducted at a landscape scale with 20 study sites, and generalized linear mixed models were used to examine the influence of habitat variables. Six species were positively associated with warmer nighttime temperature, and 5 species had a negative relationship with humidity or a positive relationship with climatic moisture deficit. Our results suggest that these mammals may have greater climate adaptive capacity than expected, and, for now, that habitat use may be more related to optimal foraging conditions than to avoidance of warming temperatures and drought. We also determined that 12 of the 13 regionally present bat species were regularly detected in commercial timberland stands. Because forest bats are highly mobile, forage over long distances, and frequently change roosts, the stewardship of working forests must be addressed to protect these species.

Influencia del microclima y el manejo forestal sobre especies de murciélagos ante el cambio global Resumen Los refugios climáticos, áreas en donde se espera que el clima permanezca relativamente estable, pueden ofrecer un santuario a corto plazo para las especies sensibles al aumento de temperaturas y la sequía. Es muy importante entender la influencia de la temperatura, la humedad y las perturbaciones sobre las especies sensibles durante estos tiempos de cambio climático repentino. Los hábitats costeros pueden funcionar como refugios importantes. Muchas de estas áreas consisten en bosques funcionales y cada vez hay más reconocimiento de que los esfuerzos mundiales de conservación deben considerar el valor del hábitat de los suelos funcionales, además de las áreas protegidas, para manejar de manera efectiva los extensos paisajes que mantienen a la biodiversidad. La sensibilidad de los murciélagos de los bosques ante las perturbaciones climáticas y de hábitat hace que sean un taxón indicador útil. Analizamos cómo los microclimas y el manejo forestal influyen sobre el uso de hábitat de 13 especies de murciélagos insectívoros en un refugio climático amplio dentro de un punto caliente de biodiversidad mundial. Examinamos si la actividad de los murciélagos durante la temporada seca de verano es mayor en los bosques en donde la niebla costera proporciona humedad y temperaturas más estables tanto en los árboles maduros como aquellos que son talados con regularidad. Realizamos el monitoreo acústico a escala de paisaje en 20 estudios de sitio y usamos modelos lineales mixtos generalizados para examinar la influencia de las variables del hábitat. Seis especies estuvieron asociadas positivamente con la temperatura nocturna más cálida y cinco especies tuvieron una relación negativa con la humedad o una relación positiva con el déficit climático de humedad. Nuestros resultados sugieren que estos mamíferos pueden tener una mayor capacidad de adaptación climática de lo que se pensaba y, por ahora, que el uso de hábitat puede estar más relacionado con las condiciones óptimas de forrajeo que con la evasión de las temperaturas elevadas y la sequía. También determinamos que 12 de las 13 especies con presencia regional fueron detectadas con regularidad en los puntos de tala comercial. Ya que los murciélagos del bosque tienden a moverse mucho, forrajear a lo largo de grandes distancias y con frecuencia cambiar de nido, debemos abordar la administración de los bosques funcionales para proteger a estas especies.

Decametric-scale buffering of climate extremes in forest understory within a riparian microrefugia: the key role of microtopography.

Riparian corridors often act as low-land climate refugia for temperate tree species in their southern distribution range. A plausible mechanism is the buffering of regional climate extremes by local physiographic and biotic factors. We tested this idea using a 3-year-long microclimate dataset collected along the Ciron river, a refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in southwestern France. Across the whole network, canopy gap fraction was the main predictor for spatial microclimatic variations, together with two other landscape features (elevation above the river and woodland fraction within a 300m radius). However, within the riparian forest only (canopy gap fraction < 25%, distance to the river < 150m), variations of up to -4°C and + 15% in summertime daily maximum air temperature and minimum relative humidity, respectively, were still found from the plateau to the cooler, moister river banks, only ~ 5-10m below. Elevation above the river was then identified as the main predictor, and explained the marked variations from the plateau to the banks much better than canopy gap fraction. The microclimate measured near the river is as cool but moister than the macroclimate encountered at 700-1000m asl further east in F. sylvatica's main distribution range. Indeed, at all locations, we found that air relative humidity was higher than expected from a temperature-only effect, suggesting that extra moisture is brought by the river. Our results explain well why beech trees in this climate refugium are restricted to the river gorges where microtopographic variations are the strongest and canopy gaps are rare.

Morphological and genetic mechanisms underlying the plasticity of the coral Porites astreoides across depths in Bermuda.

The widespread decline of shallow-water coral reefs has fueled interest in assessing whether mesophotic reefs can act as refugia replenishing deteriorated shallower reefs through larval exchange. Here we explore the morphological and molecular basis facilitating survival of planulae and adults of the coral Porites astreoides (Lamarck, 1816; Hexacorallia: Poritidae) along the vertical depth gradient in Bermuda. We found differences in micro-skeletal features such as bigger calyxes and coarser surface of the skeletal spines in shallow corals. Yet, tomographic reconstructions reveal an analogous mineral distribution between shallow and mesophotic adults, pointing to similar skeleton growth dynamics. Our study reveals patterns of host genetic connectivity and minimal symbiont depth-zonation across a broader depth range than previously known for this species in Bermuda. Transcriptional variations across life stages showed different regulation of metabolism and stress response functions, unraveling molecular responses to environmental conditions at different depths. Overall, these findings increase our understanding of coral acclimatory capability across broad vertical gradients, ultimately allowing better evaluation of the refugia potential of mesophotic reefs.

Forest microclimate and composition mediate long-term trends of breeding bird populations.

Climate change is contributing to biodiversity redistributions and species declines. However, cooler microclimate conditions provided by old-growth forest structures compared with surrounding open or younger forests have been hypothesized to provide thermal refugia for species that are sensitive to climate warming and dampen the negative effects of warming on population trends of animals (i.e., the microclimate buffering hypothesis). In addition to thermal refugia, the compositional and structural diversity of old-growth forest vegetation itself may provide resources to species that are less available in forests with simpler structure (i.e., the insurance hypothesis). We used 8 years of breeding bird abundance data from a forested watershed, accompanied with sub-canopy temperature data, and ground- and LiDAR-based vegetation data to test these hypotheses and identify factors influencing bird population changes from 2011 to 2018. After accounting for imperfect detection, we found that for 5 of 20 bird species analyzed, abundance trends tended to be less negative or neutral at sites with cooler microclimates, which supports the microclimate buffering hypothesis. Negative effects of warming on two species were also reduced in locations with greater forest compositional diversity supporting the insurance hypothesis. We provide the first empirical evidence that complex forest structure and vegetation diversity confer microclimatic advantages to some animal populations in the face of climate change. Conservation of old-growth forests, or their characteristics in managed forests, could help slow the negative effects of climate warming on some breeding bird populations via microclimate buffering and possibly insurance effects.

Climate adaptation of biodiversity conservation in managed forest landscapes.

Conservation of biodiversity in managed forest landscapes needs to be complemented with new approaches given the threat from rapid climate change. Most frameworks for adaptation of biodiversity conservation to climate change include two major strategies. The first is the resistance strategy, which focuses on actions to increase the capacity of species and communities to resist change. The second is the transformation strategy and includes actions that ease the transformation of communities to a set of species that are well adapted to the novel environmental conditions. We suggest a number of concrete actions policy makers and managers can take. Under the resistance strategy, five tools are introduced, including: identifying and protecting forest climate refugia with cold-favored species; reducing the effects of drought by protecting the hydrological network; and actively removing competitors when they threaten cold-favored species. Under the transformation strategy, we suggest three tools, including: enhancing conditions for forest species favored by the new climate, but currently disfavored by forest management, by planting them at suitable sites outside their main range; and increasing connectivity across the landscape to enhance the expansion of warm-favored species to sites that have become suitable. Finally, we suggest applying a landscape perspective and simultaneously managing for both retreating and expanding species. The two different strategies (resistance and transformation) should be seen as complementary ways to maintain a rich biodiversity in future forest ecosystems.

Adaptación Climática de la Conservación de la Biodiversidad en Paisajes Forestales Gestionados Resumen La conservación de la biodiversidad en los paisajes forestales gestionados necesita complementarse con estrategias nuevas debido a la amenaza del cambio climático acelerado. La mayoría de los marcos de trabajo para la adaptación de la conservación de la biodiversidad ante el cambio climático incluye dos estrategias principales. La primera es la estrategia de resistencia, la cual se enfoca en acciones para incrementar la capacidad de las especies y comunidades para resistir el cambio. La segunda es la estrategia de transformación e incluye acciones que facilitan la transformación de las comunidades a un conjunto de especies que están bien adaptadas a las nuevas condiciones ambientales. Sugerimos un número de acciones concretas que los gestores y los formuladores de políticas pueden tomar. Bajo la estrategia de resistencia, introducimos cinco herramientas, incluyendo: identificación y protección de los refugios climáticos forestales con especies favorecidas por el frío, reducción de los efectos de la sequía mediante la protección de la red hidrológica y extirpación activa de los competidores cuando amenacen a las especies favorecidas por el frío. Bajo la estrategia de transformación, sugerimos tres herramientas, incluyendo: mejorar las condiciones para las especies forestales favorecidas por el nuevo clima pero actualmente desfavorecidas por la gestión forestal, mediante su siembra en sitios adecuados fuera de su distribución principal e incrementando la conectividad en el paisaje para incrementar la expansión de las especies favorecidas por el calor hacia sitios que se han vuelto más adecuados. Finalmente, sugerimos aplicar una perspectiva de paisaje y gestionar simultáneamente tanto para las especies en retirada y en expansión. Las dos estrategias diferentes (resistencia y transformación) deberían considerarse como maneras complementarias para mantener una biodiversidad rica en los ecosistemas forestales del futuro.

Identifying management opportunities to combat climate, land, and marine threats across less climate exposed coral reefs.

Conserving coral reefs is critical for maintaining marine biodiversity, protecting coastlines, and supporting livelihoods in many coastal communities. Climate change threatens coral reefs globally, but researchers have identified a portfolio of coral reefs (bioclimatic units [BCUs]) that are relatively less exposed to climate impacts and strongly connected to other coral reef systems. These reefs provide a proactive opportunity to secure a long-term future for coral reefs under climate change. To help guide local management efforts, we quantified marine cumulative human impact (CHI) from climate, marine, and land pressures (2013 and from 2008 to 2013) in BCUs and across countries tasked with BCU management. Additionally, we created a management index based on common management measures and policies for each pressure source (climate, marine, and land) to identify a country's intent and commitment to effectively manage these pressures. Twenty-two countries (79%) had increases in CHI from 2008 to 2013. Climate change pressures had the highest proportional contribution to CHI across all reefs and in all but one country (Singapore), but 18 BCUs (35%) and nine countries containing BCUs (32%) had relatively high land and marine impacts. There was a significant positive relationship between climate impact and the climate management index across countries (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), potentially signifying that countries with greater climate impacts are more committed to managing them. However, this trend was driven by climate management intent in Fiji and Bangladesh. Our results can be used to guide future fine-scale analyses, national policies, and local management decisions, and our management indices reveal areas where management components can be improved. Cost-effectively managing local pressures (e.g., fishing and nutrients) in BCUs is essential for building a climate-ready future that benefits coral reefs and people.

Identificación de Oportunidades de Gestión para Combatir las Amenazas Climáticas, Marinas y Terrestres en los Arrecifes de Coral Menos Expuestos al Clima Resumen La conservación de los arrecifes de coral es de suma importancia para mantener la biodiversidad marina y para sostener el medio de vida en muchas comunidades costeras. El cambio climático es una amenaza mundial para los arrecifes de coral; aun así, los investigadores han identificado un portafolio de arrecifes de coral (unidades bioclimáticas[UBCs]) que se encuentran relativamente menos expuestos a los impactos climáticos y están conectados a otros sistemas arrecifales. Estos arrecifes proporcionan una oportunidad proactiva de asegurar un futuro a largo plazo para los arrecifes de coral frente al cambio climático. Para ayudar a guiar los esfuerzos locales de manejo, cuantificamos el impacto humano acumulativo (IHA) sobre los ambientes marinos a partir de las presiones climáticas, marinas y terrestres (del 2008 al 2013) en las UBCs y en los países encargados del manejo de estas. Además, creamos un índice de manejo con base en las medidas y políticas comunes de gestión para cada fuente de presión (clima, ambiente marino, suelo) para identificar la intención y el compromiso de cada país para manejar de manera efectiva estas presiones. Veintidós países (79%) tuvieron incrementos en el IHA entre 2008 y 2013. Las presiones por el cambio climático tuvieron la contribución proporcional más alta al IHA en todos los arrecifes y en todos los países excepto uno (Singapur), pero 18 UBCs (35%) y nueve países que cuentan con UBCs (32%) tuvieron impactos terrestres y marinos relativamente altos. Hubo una relación positiva significativa entre el impacto climático y el índice de manejo climático entre los países (R2 = 0.43, p = 0.02), lo que potencialmente significa que los países con un mayor impacto climático están más comprometidos con su manejo. Sin embargo, esta tendencia estuvo impulsada por las intenciones de manejo climático en Fiyi y en Bangladesh. Nuestros resultados pueden usarse para orientar los análisis a fina escala, las políticas nacionales y las decisiones locales de manejo en el futuro. Nuestros índices de manejo también revelan áreas en donde se pueden mejorar los componentes gestores. El manejo rentable de las presiones locales (p. ej.: la pesca, los nutrientes) dentro de las UBCs es esencial para construir un futuro preparado climáticamente que beneficie a los arrecifes y a las personas.

Laurentian Great Lakes warming threatens northern fruit belt refugia.

Climate refugia are anomalous "pockets" of spatially or temporally disjunct environmental conditions that buffer distinct flora and fauna against prevailing climatic conditions. Physiographic landscape features, such as large water bodies, can create these micro-to-macro-scale terrestrial habitats, such as the prevailing westerly winds across the Laurentian Great Lakes that create relatively cooler leeward conditions in spring and relatively warmer leeward conditions in autumn. The leeward Great Lakes climate effects create refugia (popularly known as a "fruit belt") favorable for fruit-bearing trees and shrubs. These fruit belt refugia owe their existence to seasonal inversions whereby spring cooling prevents early flower budding that leaves fruit trees susceptible to late spring killing frosts, and autumn warming prevents early killing frosts. With global climate change, however, warmer summers and milder winters, and corresponding warmer waters, might erode the leeward delaying effect on spring flowering, creating a paradoxical situation in which warming increases the risk of frost damage to plants. We evaluated the success of regional agriculture in the Great Lakes fruit belt to test our hypothesis that warmer spring climate (and concomitant warmer lake waters) correspond with degraded fruit production. We also examined long-term trends in Great Lakes climate conditions. We found that the cold-sensitive fruit tree (apple, grape, peach, and cherry) refugia were destabilized by relatively warmer springs. Moreover, we found several indicators that lake waters are warming across the Great Lakes, which portends negative consequences for agricultural and natural plant communities in the Great Lakes region and in similar "fruit belt" refugia worldwide.

Phylogeographic pattern of a cryptoviviparous mangrove, Aegiceras corniculatum, in the Indo-West Pacific, provides insights for conservation actions.

MAIN CONCLUSION: This study identified the historical geoclimatic factors which caused low genetic diversity and strong phylogeographic structure in a cryptoviviparous mangrove. The phylogeographic pattern was used to suggest conservation actions. Phylogeographic studies are used to understand the spatial distribution and evolution of genetic diversity, and have major conservation implications, especially for threatened taxa like the mangroves. This study aimed to assess the phylogeographic pattern of Aegiceras corniculatum, a cryptoviviparous mangrove, across its distribution range in the Indo-West Pacific (IWP) region. We genotyped 398 samples, collected from 37 populations, at four chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) loci, and identified the influence of historical processes on the contemporary population structure of the species. Low genetic diversity at the population level was observed. The evolutionary relationship between 12 cpDNA haplotypes suggested a strong phylogeographic structure, which was further validated by the clustering algorithms and proportioning of maximum variation among hierarchical population groups. The magnitude and direction of historical gene flow indicated that the species attained its wide distribution from its likely ancestral area of the Malay Archipelago. The divergence time estimates of the haplotypes indicated that the geoclimatic changes during the Pleistocene, especially the glacial sea-level changes and emergence of landmasses, hindered genetic exchange and created genetic differentiation between the phylogenetic groups. The species overwintered the last glacial maxima in multiple refugia in the IWP, as identified by the environmental niche modelling. Overall, our findings indicated that ancient glacial vicariance had influenced the present genetic composition of A. corniculatum, which was maintained by the current demographic features of this region. We discussed how these findings can be used to prioritize areas for conservation actions, restore disturbed habitats and prevent further genetic erosion.

Global progress in incorporating climate adaptation into land protection for biodiversity since Aichi targets.

Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well-established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global-extent, country-level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non-human-dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.

An economic evaluation framework for land-use-based conservation policy instruments in a changing climate.

Climate change is a key threat to biodiversity. To conserve species under climate change, ecologists and conservation scientists suggest 2 main conservation strategies regarding land use: supporting species' range shifts to enable it to follow its climatic requirements by creating migration pathways, such as corridors and stepping stones, and conserving climate refugia (i.e., existing habitat areas that are somewhat buffered from climate change). The policy instruments that could be used to implement these conservation strategies have yet to be evaluated comprehensively from an economic perspective. The economic analyses of environmental policy instruments are often based on ecological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness criteria. We adapted these general criteria to evaluate policy instruments for species' conservation under climate change and applied them to a conceptual analysis of land purchases, offsets, and conservation payments. Depending on whether the strategy supporting species' range shifts or conserving climate refugia is selected, the evaluation of the policy instruments differed substantially. For example, to ensure ecological effectiveness, habitat persistence over time was especially important for climate refugia and was best achieved by a land-purchase policy instrument. In contrast, for the strategy supporting range shifts to be ecologically effective, a high degree of flexibility in the location of conserved sites was required to ensure that new habitat sites can be created in the species' new range. Offset programs were best suited for that because the location of conservation sites can be chosen comparatively freely and may also be adapted over time.

Un Marco de Trabajo de Análisis Económico para los Instrumentos de Políticas de Conservación Basada en el Uso de Suelo en un Clima Cambiante Resumen El cambio climático es una amenaza muy importante para la biodiversidad. Para conservar a las especies durante el cambio climático, los ecólogos y los científicos de la conservación sugieren dos estrategias principales de conservación con respecto al uso de suelo: asistir los cambios de distribución de las especies para permitirles seguir los requerimientos climáticos creando rutas de migración, como los corredores ecológicos y los trampolines, y conservar los refugios climáticos (es decir, las áreas existentes de hábitat que están de cierta manera protegidas del cambio climático). Los instrumentos de políticas que podrían usarse para implementar estas estrategias de conservación todavía no han sido evaluados de manera exhaustiva desde una perspectiva económica. Los análisis económicos de los instrumentos de políticas ambientales están basados con frecuencia en la efectividad ecológica y los criterios de rentabilidad. Adaptamos estos criterios generales para evaluar los instrumentos de políticas para la conservación de las especies durante el cambio climático y los aplicamos a los análisis conceptuales de la compra de tierras, compensaciones y pagos por conservación. La evaluación de los instrumentos de políticas difirió sustancialmente dependiendo de si se seleccionaba la estrategia de asistir los cambios de distribución de las especies o la de conservar los refugios climáticos. Por ejemplo, para asegurar la efectividad ecológica, la persistencia del hábitat con el tiempo era de importancia especial para los refugios climáticos y se conseguía de mejor manera mediante un instrumento de políticas de compra de tierras. Por otro lado, para que la estrategia de asistir los cambios de distribución fuera ecológicamente efectiva, se requirió un nivel elevado de flexibilidad en la ubicación de sitios conservados para asegurar que se puedan crear sitios nuevos de hábitat dentro de la distribución nueva de la especie. Los programas de compensaciones fueron mejor indicados para lo anterior pues la ubicación de los sitios de conservación se puede elegir libremente en comparación y también puede irse adaptando con el tiempo.

Seagrass-driven changes in carbonate chemistry enhance oyster shell growth.

Quantifying the strength of non-trophic interactions exerted by foundation species is critical to understanding how natural communities respond to environmental stress. In the case of ocean acidification (OA), submerged marine macrophytes, such as seagrasses, may create local areas of elevated pH due to their capacity to sequester dissolved inorganic carbon through photosynthesis. However, although seagrasses may increase seawater pH during the day, they can also decrease pH at night due to respiration. Therefore, it remains unclear how consequences of such diel fluctuations may unfold for organisms vulnerable to OA. We established mesocosms containing different levels of seagrass biomass (Zostera marina) to create a gradient of carbonate chemistry conditions and explored consequences for growth of juvenile and adult oysters (Crassostrea gigas), a non-native species widely used in aquaculture that can co-occur, and is often grown, in proximity to seagrass beds. In particular, we investigated whether increased diel fluctuations in pH due to seagrass metabolism affected oyster growth. Seagrasses increased daytime pH up to 0.4 units but had little effect on nighttime pH (reductions less than 0.02 units). Thus, both the average pH and the amplitude of diel pH fluctuations increased with greater seagrass biomass. The highest seagrass biomass increased oyster shell growth rate (mm day-1) up to 40%. Oyster somatic tissue weight and oyster condition index exhibited a different pattern, peaking at intermediate levels of seagrass biomass. This work demonstrates the ability of seagrasses to facilitate oyster calcification and illustrates how non-trophic metabolic interactions can modulate effects of environmental change.

Land use planning to support climate change adaptation in threatened plant communities.

Among the many causes of habitat loss, urbanization coupled with climate change has produced some of the greatest local extinction rates and has led to the loss of many native species. Managing native vegetation in a rapidly expanding urban setting requires land management strategies that are cognizant of these impacts and how species and communities may adapt to a future climate. Here, we demonstrate how identifying climate refugia for threatened vegetation communities in an urban matrix can be used to support management decisions by local government authorities under the dual pressures of urban expansion and climate change. This research was focused on a local government area in New South Wales, Australia, that is undergoing significant residential, commercial and agricultural expansion resulting in the transition of native forest to other more intensive land-uses. Our results indicate that the key drivers of change from native vegetation to urban and agriculture classes were population density and the proximity to urban areas. We found two of the most cleared vegetation community types are physically restricted to land owned or managed by council, suggesting their long-term ecological viability is uncertain under a warming climate. We propose that land use planning decisions must recognize the compounding spatial and temporal pressures of urban development, land clearing and climate change, and how current policy responses, such as biodiversity offsetting, can respond positively to habitat shifts in order to secure the longevity of important ecological communities.

Do shrubs improve reproductive chances of neighbors across soil types in drought?

Plant reproduction is highly sensitive to stress from severe weather. While facilitation has been shown to buffer negative impacts along stress gradients, less is known about facilitating plant reproduction in drought periods. Because intensity and frequency of drought are predicted to increase, plant reproductive facilitation has important implications for a species ability to adapt to changes in climate. Our primary study objective is to test if nurse shrubs act as reproductive micro-refugia across soil types, by improving reproductive potential of perennial bunchgrass neighbors subjected to severe drought. To investigate this objective, we designed a fully factored study testing direct interaction between shrub and bunchgrasses in eastern Oregon sagebrush steppe, at two sites with different soil types. The study consisted of six simple effect treatments combining three moisture regimes (moist, ambient, and drought) with two shrub conditions (shrub intact or shrub removed). Our results indicate when facilitation of reproductive potential occurs, it occurs strongly and particularly in drought, consistent with the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), where several species produced at least 54% more inflorescences in the presence of shrub neighbors. In addition, we found facilitation to be consistent with the SGH at the species level likely reflecting differences in plant strategy and perception of strain, but to follow alternative SGH models more closely at the site level where facilitation declined on the drier soil. Ultimately, our findings highlight the importance of facilitation in improving plant reproductive potential in drought, and support the role of nurse shrubs as micro-refugia in a changing climate.

Slow climate velocities of mountain streams portend their role as refugia for cold-water biodiversity.

The imminent demise of montane species is a recurrent theme in the climate change literature, particularly for aquatic species that are constrained to networks and elevational rather than latitudinal retreat as temperatures increase. Predictions of widespread species losses, however, have yet to be fulfilled despite decades of climate change, suggesting that trends are much weaker than anticipated and may be too subtle for detection given the widespread use of sparse water temperature datasets or imprecise surrogates like elevation and air temperature. Through application of large water-temperature databases evaluated for sensitivity to historical air-temperature variability and computationally interpolated to provide high-resolution thermal habitat information for a 222,000-km network, we estimate a less dire thermal plight for cold-water species within mountains of the northwestern United States. Stream warming rates and climate velocities were both relatively low for 1968-2011 (average warming rate = 0.101 °C/decade; median velocity = 1.07 km/decade) when air temperatures warmed at 0.21 °C/decade. Many cold-water vertebrate species occurred in a subset of the network characterized by low climate velocities, and three native species of conservation concern occurred in extremely cold, slow velocity environments (0.33-0.48 km/decade). Examination of aggressive warming scenarios indicated that although network climate velocities could increase, they remain low in headwaters because of strong local temperature gradients associated with topographic controls. Better information about changing hydrology and disturbance regimes is needed to complement these results, but rather than being climatic cul-de-sacs, many mountain streams appear poised to be redoubts for cold-water biodiversity this century.

Environmental heterogeneity and biotic interactions mediate climate impacts on tropical forest regeneration.

Predicting the fate of tropical forests under a changing climate requires understanding species responses to climatic variability and extremes. Seedlings may be particularly vulnerable to climatic stress given low stored resources and undeveloped roots; they also portend the potential effects of climate change on future forest composition. Here we use data for ca. 50,000 tropical seedlings representing 25 woody species to assess (i) the effects of interannual variation in rainfall and solar radiation between 2007 and 2016 on seedling survival over 9 years in a subtropical forest; and (ii) how spatial heterogeneity in three environmental factors-soil moisture, understory light, and conspecific neighborhood density-modulate these responses. Community-wide seedling survival was not sensitive to interannual rainfall variability but interspecific variation in these responses was large, overwhelming the average community response. In contrast, community-wide responses to solar radiation were predominantly positive. Spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture and conspecific density were the predominant and most consistent drivers of seedling survival, with the majority of species exhibiting greater survival at low conspecific densities and positive or nonlinear responses to soil moisture. This environmental heterogeneity modulated impacts of rainfall and solar radiation. Negative conspecific effects were amplified during rainy years and at dry sites, whereas the positive effects of radiation on survival were more pronounced for seedlings existing at high understory light levels. These results demonstrate that environmental heterogeneity is not only the main driver of seedling survival in this forest but also plays a central role in buffering or exacerbating impacts of climate fluctuations on forest regeneration. Since seedlings represent a key bottleneck in the demographic cycle of trees, efforts to predict the long-term effects of a changing climate on tropical forests must take into account this environmental heterogeneity and how its effects on regeneration dynamics play out in long-term stand dynamics.

Emerging climate-driven disturbance processes: widespread mortality associated with snow-to-rain transitions across 10° of latitude and half the range of a climate-threatened conifer.

Climate change is causing rapid changes to forest disturbance regimes worldwide. While the consequences of climate change for existing disturbance processes, like fires, are relatively well studied, emerging drivers of disturbance such as snow loss and subsequent mortality are much less documented. As the climate warms, a transition from winter snow to rain in high latitudes will cause significant changes in environmental conditions such as soil temperatures, historically buffered by snow cover. The Pacific coast of North America is an excellent test case, as mean winter temperatures are currently at the snow-rain threshold and have been warming for approximately 100 years post-Little Ice Age. Increased mortality in a widespread tree species in the region has been linked to warmer winters and snow loss. Here, we present the first high-resolution range map of this climate-sensitive species, Callitropsis nootkatensis (yellow-cedar), and document the magnitude and location of observed mortality across Canada and the United States. Snow cover loss related mortality spans approximately 10° latitude (half the native range of the species) and 7% of the overall species range and appears linked to this snow-rain transition across its range. Mortality is commonly >70% of basal area in affected areas, and more common where mean winter temperatures is at or above the snow-rain threshold (>0 °C mean winter temperature). Approximately 50% of areas with a currently suitable climate for the species (<-2 °C) are expected to warm beyond that threshold by the late 21st century. Regardless of climate change scenario, little of the range which is expected to remain suitable in the future (e.g., a climatic refugia) is in currently protected landscapes (<1-9%). These results are the first documentation of this type of emerging climate disturbance and highlight the difficulties of anticipating novel disturbance processes when planning for conservation and management.

Planning for the Maintenance of Floristic Diversity in the Face of Land Cover and Climate Change.

Habitat loss and climate change are primary drivers of global biodiversity loss. Species will need to track changing environmental conditions through fragmented and transformed landscapes such as KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Landscape connectivity is an important tool for maintaining resilience to global change. We develop a coarse-grained connectivity map between protected areas to aid decision-making for implementing corridors to maintain floristic diversity in the face of global change. The spatial location of corridors was prioritised using a biological underpinning of floristic composition that incorporated high beta diversity regions, important plant areas, climate refugia, and aligned to major climatic gradients driving floristic pattern. We used Linkage Mapper to develop the connectivity network. The resistance layer was based on land-cover categories with natural areas discounted according to their contribution towards meeting the biological objectives. Three corridor maps were developed; a conservative option for meeting minimum corridor requirements, an optimal option for meeting a target amount of 50% of the landscape and an option including linkages in highly transformed areas. The importance of various protected areas and critical linkages in maintaining landscape connectivity are discussed, disconnected protected areas and pinch points identified where the loss of small areas could compromise landscape connectivity. This framework is suggested as a way to conserve floristic diversity into the future and is recommended as an approach for other global connectivity initiatives. A lack of implementation of corridors will lead to further habitat loss and fragmentation, resulting in further risk to plant diversity.

Mesophotic zone as buffer for biodiversity protection: A promising opportunity to enhance MPA effectiveness.

Coastal areas conservation strategies often left deeper habitats, such as mesophotic ones, unprotected and exposed to anthropogenic activities. In this context, an approach for including the mesophotic zone inside protection plans is proposed, considering 27 Italian Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) as a model. MPAs were classified considering their bathymetries, exposure to marine heat waves (MHWs), mass mortality events (MMEs) and, using a local ecological knowledge (LEK) approach, the estimated resilience of certain sessile species after MMEs. Only 8 MPAs contained considerable mesophotic areas, with stronger MHWs mainly occurring in shallower MPAs, and MMEs mostly affecting coralligenous assemblages. Even with only a 10% response rate, the LEK approach provided useful information on the resilience of certain species, allowing us to suggest that the presence of nearby mesophotic areas can help shallower habitats facing climate change, thus making the "deep refugia" hypothesis, usually related to tropical habitats, applicable also for the Mediterranean Sea.

Legacies of millennial-scale climate oscillations in contemporary biodiversity in eastern North America.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has caused significant climate changes over the past 90 000 years. Prior work has hypothesized that these millennial-scale climate variations effected past and contemporary biodiversity, but the effects are understudied. Moreover, few biogeographic models have accounted for uncertainties in palaeoclimatic simulations of millennial-scale variability. We examine whether refuges from millennial-scale climate oscillations have left detectable legacies in the patterns of contemporary species richness in eastern North America. We analyse 13 palaeoclimate estimates from climate simulations and proxy-based reconstructions as predictors for the contemporary richness of amphibians, passerine birds, mammals, reptiles and trees. Results suggest that past climate changes owing to AMOC variations have left weak but detectable imprints on the contemporary richness of mammals and trees. High temperature stability, precipitation increase, and an apparent climate fulcrum in the southeastern United States across millennial-scale climate oscillations aligns with high biodiversity in the region. These findings support the hypothesis that the southeastern United States may have acted as a biodiversity refuge. However, for some taxa, the strength and direction of palaeoclimate-richness relationships varies among different palaeoclimate estimates, pointing to the importance of palaeoclimatic ensembles and the need for caution when basing biogeographic interpretations on individual palaeoclimate simulations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.