Exploratory analyses assessing the impact of early tumour shrinkage and depth of response on survival outcomes in patients with RAS wild-type metastatic colorectal cancer receiving treatment in three randomised panitumumab trials.

PURPOSE: To report exploratory analyses of early tumour shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in patients with RAS wild-type (WT) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), receiving the first-line treatment in three randomised panitumumab trials. METHODS: Data from the PRIME (NCT00364013), PEAK (NCT00819780) and PLANET (NCT00885885) studies were included. Median DpR, the proportion of patients achieving ETS ≥ 20% or ≥ 30% at week 8, and the impact of ETS and DpR (including by category) on outcome were analysed. Factors associated with ETS and DpR and the optimal ETS/DpR cut-off values for predicting improved overall survival (OS) were assessed. RESULTS: Overall, 505, 170 and 53 patients had RAS WT mCRC in PRIME, PEAK and PLANET, respectively. Patients receiving panitumumab had higher ETS rates (≥ 30%: PRIME 59% vs. 38%; PEAK 64% vs. 45%) and greater DpR (PRIME: 54% vs. 46%; PEAK: 65% vs. 46%) than those receiving treatment without panitumumab. In multiple regression analyses, panitumumab treatment, liver-only metastases and WT BRAF status were consistently associated with improved ETS and DpR outcomes. Irrespective of treatment, ETS and DpR were associated with improved progression-free survival, overall survival and resection rates; most resections occurred in patients in the two highest DpR categories. In PRIME and PEAK, respectively, the optimal cut-offs for predicting improved OS were 32 and 34% for ETS, and 59 and 70% for DpR. CONCLUSIONS: These exploratory analyses suggest that panitumumab is associated ETS and DpR benefits in patients with RAS WT mCRC and that achieving these endpoints during first-line treatment is linked with favourable outcomes.

Exploration of time points and cut-off values for early tumour shrinkage to predict survival outcomes of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer treated with first-line chemotherapy using a biexponential model for change in tumour size.

BACKGROUND: Several studies reported that early tumour shrinkage (ETS) was associated with overall survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) treated with first-line chemotherapy. However, appropriate time point and cut-off value for ETS remain unclear because these varied in previous studies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We investigated patients with mCRC who received FOLFOX or FOLFIRI with/without molecular-targeted agents as first-line treatment between 2005 and 2014. Using a biexponential model for change in tumour size, a relative change in the sum of the longest diameters of target lesions from baseline was estimated at a certain time point in each individual patient. Associations of survival outcomes with ETS at various time points based on various cut-off values were evaluated by Cox regression analysis with a landmark approach. RESULTS: Among the 67 patients reviewed, the objective response rate was 73.1% (95% CI 62.5% to 83.7%), the median progression-free survival was 10.9 months (95% CI 8.7 to 13.0 months) and the median overall survival was 25.6 months (95% CI 20.1 to 27.3 months). The model for change in tumour size agreed with the actual measured sizes well. Multivariate Cox regression analysis, including performance status, number of metastatic sites and use of targeted agents, showed that ETS at 8 weeks based on a cut-off value of 20% was most significantly associated with overall survival (HR: 0.404, 95% CI 0.231 to 0.707, P=0.0015). CONCLUSION: It is suggested that a time point of 8 weeks and a cut-off value of 20% may be optimal criteria for defining ETS.

Early Tumour Shrinkage: A Tool for the Detection of Early Clinical Activity in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The predictive role of objective remission remains undefined for targeted agents in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC); however, early tumour shrinkage (eTS) was shown to be predictive and/or prognostic for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in mRCC in several small studies. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the degree of eTS following systemic therapy that may predict survival in mRCC. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from 4334 patients with mRCC in phase 2 and 3 clinical trials between 2003 and 2013 were pooled for analyses. Early tumour shrinkage was assessed based on percentage change in sum of the longest diameters of target lesions at first postbaseline scan. Patients were categorised by a more or equal versus less optimal threshold of eTS, assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. OS and PFS in patients with eTS were summarised using the Kaplan-Meier method. INTERVENTION: Axitinib, bevacizumab, interferon α, sorafenib, sunitinib, or temsirolimus. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We measured optimal thresholds of eTS and eTS as a predictor of OS or PFS. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Optimal threshold of eTS for the prediction of OS and PFS was determined to be approximately 10%. In Cox proportional hazards models, compared with patients without eTS, those with eTS had significantly longer OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.615; p<0.0001; median: 28.5 vs 16.0 mo) and PFS (HR: 0.628; p<0.0001; median: 10.5 vs 5.3 mo). The major limitation was the retrospective nature of our analysis, including different lines and types of therapy, although subset analyses detected a similar predictive pattern for eTS across all lines and types of therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Early tumour shrinkage ≥10% at first postbaseline assessment could serve as a putative early end point in patients with mRCC. A prospective evaluation of eTS in clinical trials is warranted. PATIENT SUMMARY: Early tumour shrinkage may be used to identify patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma who would benefit from treatment with antitumour agents. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The clinical trials are registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00267748, NCT00338884, NCT00835978, NCT00065468, NCT00083889, NCT00631371, NCT00920816, NCT00077974, NCT00137423, NCT00054886, NCT00678392, and NCT00474786).

Early tumour shrinkage as a prognostic factor and surrogate end-point in colorectal cancer: a systematic review and pooled-analysis.

PURPOSE: Early tumour shrinkage (ETS), defined as a reduction of at least 20% in tumour size at first reassessment, has been recently investigated retrospectively in first-line trials of metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), and appears to be associated with better outcomes. We have performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of published trials to evaluate the prognostic value of ETS in CRC in terms of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic search of the PubMed, SCOPUS, EMBASE, the Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trial databases identified trials that compared outcomes of patients with or without ETS during first-line chemotherapy for metastatic CRC. The OS, reported as a hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI), was the primary outcome measure; the correlation coefficient (R) between ETS with median OS was also estimated. RESULTS: Twenty-one trials from 10 publications were analysed. Overall, patients with ETS were associated with a better OS (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.64; P<0.00001) and PFS (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.47-0.69; P<0.00001) compared with patients who were early non-responders. However, ETS was poorly correlated with OS in terms of surrogacy (R=0.37; 95% CI - 0.31-0.78; P=0.28). CONCLUSIONS: ETS is a good prognostic factor but an inappropriate surrogate for predicting outcome in CRC patients. These findings support ETS as prognostic tool in ascertaining earlier non-responders; however, its role as a surrogate end-point deserves further evaluation.

Early tumour shrinkage (ETS) and depth of response (DpR) in the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC).

BACKGROUND: Response evaluation criteria in solid tumours (RECIST) are used to define degrees of response to anti-tumour agents. In retrospective analyses, early tumour shrinkage (ETS) has been investigated as an alternative early-on-treatment predictor of treatment efficacy with regard to progression-free and overall survival. While cut-off based analysis of ETS facilitates the categorisation of patients into responders and non-responders after a defined period of treatment, depth of response (DpR) serves as a continuous measure, which defines the nadir of tumour response. METHODS: A systematic literature search for 'early tumour shrinkage' or 'tumour size decrease' in 'metastatic colorectal cancer' reported from January 2000 to July 2014 was performed. The present review summarises available data concerning ETS and DpR and evaluates their potential as predictive markers for the clinical management of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). RESULTS: A total of 10 clinical trials investigated the role of ETS as a marker of clinical outcome in patients with mCRC. In addition, DpR was investigated using the efficacy data from three of these trials. Available data show that ETS differentiates patients with high sensitivity to treatment and more favourable prognosis from a heterogeneous group of patients classified as non-ETS patients. ETS is an early indicator of the potentially achievable response. In contrast, DpR estimates the nadir of tumour response as a continuous measure, which may affect the subsequent disease history, thus translating into superior survival. CONCLUSIONS: The concepts of ETS and DpR offer potential as clinical end-points to aid the clinical decision making process and thus further optimise mCRC patient management in the era of tailored therapy approaches.