Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.

Evolutionarily diverse origins of deformed wing viruses in western honey bees.

Novel transmission routes can allow infectious diseases to spread, often with devastating consequences. Ectoparasitic varroa mites vector a diversity of RNA viruses, having switched hosts from the eastern to western honey bees (Apis cerana to Apis mellifera). They provide an opportunity to explore how novel transmission routes shape disease epidemiology. As the principal driver of the spread of deformed wing viruses (mainly DWV-A and DWV-B), varroa infestation has also driven global honey bee health declines. The more virulent DWV-B strain has been replacing the original DWV-A strain in many regions over the past two decades. Yet, how these viruses originated and spread remains poorly understood. Here, we use a phylogeographic analysis based on whole-genome data to reconstruct the origins and demography of DWV spread. We found that, rather than reemerging in western honey bees after varroa switched hosts, as suggested by previous work, DWV-A most likely originated in East Asia and spread in the mid-20th century. It also showed a massive population size expansion following the varroa host switch. By contrast, DWV-B was most likely acquired more recently from a source outside East Asia and appears absent from the original varroa host. These results highlight the dynamic nature of viral adaptation, whereby a vector's host switch can give rise to competing and increasingly virulent disease pandemics. The evolutionary novelty and rapid global spread of these host-virus interactions, together with observed spillover into other species, illustrate how increasing globalization poses urgent threats to biodiversity and food security.

Comparing Phylogeographies to Reveal Incompatible Geographical Histories within Genomes.

Modern phylogeography aims at reconstructing the geographic movement of organisms based on their genomic sequences and spatial information. Phylogeographic approaches are often applied to pathogen sequences and therefore tend to neglect the possibility of recombination, which decouples the evolutionary and geographic histories of different parts of the genome. Genomic regions of recombining or reassorting pathogens often originate and evolve at different times and locations, which characterize their unique spatial histories. Measuring the extent of these differences requires new methods to compare geographic information on phylogenetic trees reconstructed from different parts of the genome. Here we develop for the first time a set of measures of phylogeographic incompatibility, aimed at detecting differences between geographical histories in terms of distances between phylogeographies. We study the effect of varying demography and recombination on phylogeographic incompatibilities using coalescent simulations. We further apply these measures to the evolutionary history of human and livestock pathogens, either reassorting or recombining, such as the Victoria and Yamagata lineages of influenza B and the O/Ind-2001 foot-and-mouth disease virus strain. Our results reveal diverse geographical paths of migration that characterize the origins and evolutionary histories of different viral genes and genomic segments. These incompatibility measures can be applied to any phylogeography, and more generally to any phylogeny where each tip has been assigned either a continuous or discrete "trait" independent of the sequence. We illustrate this flexibility with an analysis of the interplay between the phylogeography and phylolinguistics of Uralic-speaking human populations, hinting at patrilinear language transmission.

Random-effects substitution models for phylogenetics via scalable gradient approximations.

Phylogenetic and discrete-trait evolutionary inference depend heavily on an appropriate characterization of the underlying character substitution process. In this paper, we present random-effects substitution models that extend common continuous-time Markov chain models into a richer class of processes capable of capturing a wider variety of substitution dynamics. As these random-effects substitution models often require many more parameters than their usual counterparts, inference can be both statistically and computationally challenging. Thus, we also propose an efficient approach to compute an approximation to the gradient of the data likelihood with respect to all unknown substitution model parameters. We demonstrate that this approximate gradient enables scaling of sampling-based inference, namely Bayesian inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, under random-effects substitution models across large trees and state-spaces. Applied to a dataset of 583 SARS-CoV-2 sequences, an HKY model with random-effects shows strong signals of nonreversibility in the substitution process, and posterior predictive model checks clearly show that it is a more adequate model than a reversible model. When analyzing the pattern of phylogeographic spread of 1441 influenza A virus (H3N2) sequences between 14 regions, a random-effects phylogeographic substitution model infers that air travel volume adequately predicts almost all dispersal rates. A random-effects state-dependent substitution model reveals no evidence for an effect of arboreality on the swimming mode in the tree frog subfamily Hylinae. Simulations reveal that random-effects substitution models can accommodate both negligible and radical departures from the underlying base substitution model. We show that our gradient-based inference approach is over an order of magnitude more time efficient than conventional approaches.

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong.

Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Exon capture museomics deciphers the nine-banded armadillo species complex and identifies a new species endemic to the Guiana Shield.

The nine-banded armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus) is the most widespread xenarthran species across the Americas. Recent studies have suggested it is composed of four morphologically and genetically distinct lineages of uncertain taxonomic status. To address this issue, we used a museomic approach to sequence 80 complete mitogenomes and capture 997 nuclear loci for 71 Dasypus individuals sampled across the entire distribution. We carefully cleaned up potential genotyping errors and cross contaminations that could blur species boundaries by mimicking gene flow. Our results unambiguously support four distinct lineages within the D. novemcinctus complex. We found cases of mito-nuclear phylogenetic discordance but only limited contemporary gene flow confined to the margins of the lineage distributions. All available evidence including the restricted gene flow, phylogenetic reconstructions based on both mitogenomes and nuclear loci, and phylogenetic delimitation methods consistently supported the four lineages within D. novemcinctus as four distinct species. Comparable genetic differentiation values to other recognized Dasypus species further reinforced their status as valid species. Considering congruent morphological results from previous studies, we provide an integrative taxonomic view to recognise four species within the D. novemcinctus complex: D. novemcinctus, D. fenestratus, D. mexicanus, and D. guianensis sp. nov., a new species endemic of the Guiana Shield that we describe here. The two available individuals of D. mazzai and D. sabanicola were consistently nested within D. novemcinctus lineage and their status remains to be assessed. The present work offers a case study illustrating the power of museomics to reveal cryptic species diversity within a widely distributed and emblematic species of mammals.

Gene Flow and Isolation in the Arid Nearctic Revealed by Genomic Analyses of Desert Spiny Lizards.

The opposing forces of gene flow and isolation are two major processes shaping genetic diversity. Understanding how these vary across space and time is necessary to identify the environmental features that promote diversification. The detection of considerable geographic structure in taxa from the arid Nearctic has prompted research into the drivers of isolation in the region. Several geographic features have been proposed as barriers to gene flow, including the Colorado River, Western Continental Divide, and a hypothetical Mid-Peninsular Seaway in Baja California. However, recent studies suggest that the role of barriers in genetic differentiation may have been overestimated when compared to other mechanisms of divergence. In this study, we infer historical and spatial patterns of connectivity and isolation in Desert Spiny Lizards (Sceloporus magister) and Baja Spiny Lizards (S. zosteromus), which together form a species complex composed of parapatric lineages with wide distributions in arid western North America. Our analyses incorporate mitochondrial sequences, genomic-scale data, and past and present climatic data to evaluate the nature and strength of barriers to gene flow in the region. Our approach relies on estimates of migration under the multispecies coalescent to understand the history of lineage divergence in the face of gene flow. Results show that the S. magister complex is geographically structured, but we also detect instances of gene flow. The Continental Divide is a strong barrier to gene flow, while the Colorado River is more permeable. Analyses yield conflicting results for the catalyst of differentiation of peninsular lineages in S. zosteromus. Our study shows how large-scale genomic data for thoroughly sampled species can shed new light on biogeography. Furthermore, our approach highlights the need for the combined analysis of multiple sources of evidence to adequately characterize the drivers of divergence.

Global gradients in the distribution of animal polyploids.

Whole genome duplications (WGDs) are one of the most dramatic mutations that can be found in nature. The effects of WGD vary dramatically but can have profound impacts on an organism's expression, cytotype, and phenotype, altering their evolutionary trajectory as a result. Despite the growing appreciation for the contribution of WGDs in animal evolution, the significant factors influencing how polyploid animal lineages are established and maintained are still not well understood. Many hypotheses have been proposed which predict how climate and environment may influence polyploid incidence and evolution. To test and distinguish between these hypotheses, I assembled a global dataset of polyploid occurrences in three animal clades (Amphibia, Actinopterygii, and Insecta). The dataset encompasses chromosomal, phylogenetic, environmental, and climatic data across 57,905 species in 2,223 terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecoregions. My analysis reveals a strong latitudinal gradient in all three clades, with the tendency for polyploid taxa to occur more frequently at higher latitudes. Many variables were significant (phylogenetic ANOVA P < 0.05 after Bonferroni correction) between polyploids and diploids across taxa, notably those pertaining to temperature dynamics and glaciation. Glaciation in particular appears to be the most significant driver of polyploidy in animals, as these models had the highest relative likelihoods consistently across clades. These results contribute to a model of evolution wherein the broader genomic toolkit of polyploids facilitates adaptation and ecological resilience, enabling polyploids to colonize new or rapidly changing environments.

Phylogeographic analysis of the Bantu language expansion supports a rainforest route.

The Bantu expansion transformed the linguistic, economic, and cultural composition of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the exact dates and routes taken by the ancestors of the speakers of the more than 500 current Bantu languages remain uncertain. Here, we use the recently developed "break-away" geographical diffusion model, specially designed for modeling migrations, with "augmented" geographic information, to reconstruct the Bantu language family expansion. This Bayesian phylogeographic approach with augmented geographical data provides a powerful way of linking linguistic, archaeological, and genetic data to test hypotheses about large language family expansions. We compare four hypotheses: an early major split north of the rainforest; a migration through the Sangha River Interval corridor around 2,500 BP; a coastal migration around 4,000 BP; and a migration through the rainforest before the corridor opening, at 4,000 BP. Our results produce a topology and timeline for the Bantu language family, which supports the hypothesis of an expansion through Central African tropical forests at 4,420 BP (4,040 to 5,000 95% highest posterior density interval), well before the Sangha River Interval was open.

Genetic diversity, phylogeography, and maternal origin of yak (Bos grunniens).

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus as to the origin of the domestic yak (Bos grunniens). Previous studies on yak mitochondria mainly focused on mitochondrial displacement loop (D-loop), a region with low phylogenetic resolution. Here, we analyzed the entire mitochondrial genomes of 509 yaks to obtain greater phylogenetic resolution and a comprehensive picture of geographical diversity. RESULTS: A total of 278 haplotypes were defined in 509 yaks from 21 yak breeds. Among them, 28 haplotypes were shared by different varieties, and 250 haplotypes were unique to specific varieties. The overall haplotype diversity and nucleotide diversity of yak were 0.979 ± 0.0039 and 0.00237 ± 0.00076, respectively. Phylogenetic tree and network analysis showed that yak had three highly differentiated genetic branches with high support rate. The differentiation time of clades I and II were about 0.4328 Ma, and the differentiation time of clades (I and II) and III were 0.5654 Ma. Yushu yak is shared by all haplogroups. Most (94.70%) of the genetic variation occurred within populations, and only 5.30% of the genetic variation occurred between populations. The classification showed that yaks and wild yaks were first clustered together, and yaks were clustered with American bison as a whole. Altitude had the highest impact on the distribution of yaks. CONCLUSIONS: Yaks have high genetic diversity and yak populations have experienced population expansion and lack obvious phylogeographic structure. During the glacial period, yaks had at least three or more glacial refugia.

Infrequent Long-Range Dispersal and Evolution of a Top Terrestrial Arthropod Predator in the Sub-Antarctic.

AbstractThe sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems survive on isolated oceanic islands in the path of circumpolar currents and winds that have raged for more than 30 million years and are shaped by climatic cycles that surpass the tolerance limits of many species. Surprisingly little is known about how these ecosystems assembled their native terrestrial fauna and how such processes have changed over time. Here, we demonstrate the patterns and timing of colonization and speciation in the largest and dominant arthropod predators in the eastern sub-Antarctic: spiders of the genus Myro. Our results indicate that this lineage originated from Australia before the Plio-Pleistocenic glacial cycles and underwent an adaptive radiation on the Crozet archipelago, from where one native species colonized multiple remote archipelagos via the Antarctic circumpolar current across thousands of kilometers. The results indicate limited natural connectivity between terrestrial macroinvertebrate faunas in the eastern sub-Antarctic and partial survival of repeated glaciations in the Plio-Pleistocene. Furthermore, our findings highlight that by integrating arthropod taxa from multiple continents, the climatically more stable volcanic Crozet archipelago played a critical role in the evolution and distribution of arthropod life in the sub-Antarctic.

An Elevational Phylogeographic Diversity Gradient in Neotropical Birds Is Decoupled from Speciation Rates.

AbstractA key question about macroevolutionary speciation rates is whether they are controlled by microevolutionary processes operating at the population level. For example, does spatial variation in population genetic differentiation underlie geographical gradients in speciation rates? Previous work suggests that speciation rates increase with elevation in Neotropical birds, but underlying population-level gradients remain unexplored. Here, we characterize elevational phylogeographic diversity between montane and lowland birds in the megadiverse Andes-Amazonian system and assess its relationship to speciation rates to evaluate the link between population-level differentiation and species-level diversification. We aggregated and georeferenced nearly 7,000 mitochondrial DNA sequences across 103 species or species complexes in the Andes and Amazonia and used these sequences to describe phylogeographic differentiation across both regions. Our results show increased levels of both discrete and continuous metrics of population structure in the Andean mountains compared with the Amazonian lowlands. However, higher levels of population differentiation do not predict higher rates of speciation in our dataset. Multiple potential factors may lead to our observed decoupling of initial population divergence and speciation rates, including the ephemerality of incipient species and the multifaceted nature of the speciation process, as well as methodological challenges associated with estimating rates of population differentiation and speciation.

Genomic divergence and demographic history of Quercus aliena populations.

BACKGROUND: Quercus aliena is a major montane tree species of subtropical and temperate forests in China, with important ecological and economic value. In order to reveal the species' population dynamics, genetic diversity, genetic structure, and association with mountain habitats during the evolutionary process, we re-sequenced the genomes of 72 Q. aliena individuals. RESULTS: The whole chloroplast and nuclear genomes were used for this study. Phylogenetic analysis using the chloroplast genome dataset supported four clades of Q. aliena, while the nuclear dataset supported three major clades. Sex-biased dispersal had a critical role in causing discordance between the chloroplast and nuclear genomes. Population structure analysis showed two groups in Q. aliena. The effective population size sharply declined 1 Mya, coinciding with the Poyang Glaciation in Eastern China. Using genotype-climate association analyses, we found a positive correlation between allele frequency variation in SNPs and temperature, suggesting the species has the capacity to adapt to changing temperatures. CONCLUSION: Overall, this study illustrates the genetic divergence, genomic variation, and evolutionary processes behind the demographic history of Q. aliena.

Phylogeographical and population genetics of Polyspora sweet in China provides insights into its phylogenetic evolution and subtropical dispersal.

BACKGROUND: Geological movements and climatic fluctuations stand as pivotal catalysts driving speciation and phylogenetic evolution. The genus Polyspora Sweet (Theaceae), prominently found across the Malay Archipelagos and Indochina Peninsula in tropical Asia, exhibits its northernmost distribution in China. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary and biogeographical history of the genus Polyspora in China, shedding light on the mechanisms by which these species respond to ancient geological and climatic fluctuations. METHODS: Phylogenetic relationships of 32 representative species of Theaceae were reconstructed based on the chloroplast genome and ribosome 18-26 S rRNA datasets. Species divergence time was estimated using molecular clock and five fossil calibration. The phylogeography and population genetics in 379 individuals from 32 populations of eight species were analyzed using chloroplast gene sequences (trnH-psbA, rpoB-trnC and petN-psbM), revealing the glacial refugia of each species, and exploring the causes of the phylogeographic patterns. RESULTS: We found that Chinese Polyspora species diverged in the middle Miocene, showing a tropical-subtropical divergence order. A total of 52 haplotypes were identified by the combined chloroplast sequences. Chinese Polyspora exhibited a distinct phylogeographical structure, which could be divided into two clades and eight genealogical subdivisions. The divergence between the two clades occurred approximately 20.67 Ma. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that the genetic variation mainly occurred between species (77.91%). At the species level, Polyspora axillaris consists of three lineages, while P. speciosa had two lineages. The major lineages of Chinese Polyspora diverged between 12 and 15 Ma during the middle to late Miocene. The peak period of haplotype differentiation in each species occurred around the transition from the last interglacial to the last glacial period, approximately 6 Ma ago. CONCLUSION: The primary geographical distribution pattern of Chinese Polyspora was established prior to the last glacial maximum, and the population historical dynamics were relatively stable. The geological and climatic turbulence during the Quaternary glacial period had minimal impact on the distribution pattern of the genus. The genus coped with Quaternary climate turbulence by glacial in situ survival in multiple refuges. The Sino-Vietnam border and Nanling corridor might be the genetic mixing center of Polyspora.

Genetic diversities in wild and cultivated populations of the two closely-related medical plants species, Tripterygium Wilfordii and T. Hypoglaucum (Celastraceae).

BACKGROUND: The sustainable supply of medicinal plants is important, and cultivating and domesticating them has been suggested as an optimal strategy. However, this can lead to a loss of genetic diversity. Tripterygium wilfordii Hook. f. is a medicinal plant commonly used in traditional Chinese medicine, but its wild populations are dwindling due to excessive harvesting. To protect the species and meet the increasing demand, it is urgent to cultivate it on a large scale. However, distinguishing between T. wilfordii and T. hypoglaucum, two similar species with different medicinal properties, is challenging. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the genetic diversity and population structure of these species for their sustainable utilization. RESULTS: In this study, we investigated the genetic diversity and population structure of the two traditional medicinal semiwoody vines plant species, Tripterygium wilfordii and T. hypoglaucum, including wild and cultivated populations using chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences and microsatellite loci. Our results indicated that the two species maintain a high level of genetic divergence, indicating possible genetic bases for the different contents of bioactive compounds of the two species. T. wilfordii showed lower genetic diversity and less subdivided population structures of both markers than T. hypoglaucum. The potential factors in shaping these interesting differences might be differentiated pollen-to-seed migration rates, interbreeding, and history of population divergence. Analyses of cpDNA and microsatellite loci supported that the two species are genetically distinct entities. In addition, a significant reduction of genetic diversity was observed for cultivated populations of the two species, which mainly resulted from the small initial population size and propagated vegetative practice during their cultivation. CONCLUSION: Our findings indicate significant genetic divergence between T. wilfordii and T. hypoglaucum. The genetic diversity and population structure analyses provide important insights into the sustainable cultivation and utilization of these medicinal plants. Accurate identification and conservation efforts are necessary for both species to ensure the safety and effectiveness of crude drug use. Our study also highlighted the importance of combined analyses of different DNA markers in addressing population genetics of medicinal plants because of the contrasts of inheritance and rates of gene flow. Large-scale cultivation programs should consider preserving genetic diversity to enhance the long-term sustainability of T. wilfordii and T. hypoglaucum. Our study proposed that some populations showed higher genetic diversity and distinctness, which can be considered with priority for conservation and as the sources for future breeding and genetic improvement.

Complete genome reconstruction of the global and European regional dispersal history of the lumpy skin disease virus.

IMPORTANCE: Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) has a complex epidemiology involving multiple strains, recombination, and vaccination. Its DNA genome provides limited genetic variation to trace outbreaks in space and time. Sequencing of LSDV whole genomes has also been patchy at global and regional scales. Here, we provide the first fine-grained whole genome sequence sampling of a constrained LSDV outbreak (southeastern Europe, 2015-2017), which we analyze along with global publicly available genomes. We formally evaluate the past occurrence of recombination events as well as the temporal signal that is required for calibrating molecular clock models and subsequently conduct a time-calibrated spatially explicit phylogeographic reconstruction. Our study further illustrates the importance of accounting for recombination events before reconstructing global and regional dynamics of DNA viruses. More LSDV whole genomes from endemic areas are needed to obtain a comprehensive understanding of global LSDV dispersal dynamics.

Early Genomic Surveillance and Phylogeographic Analysis of Getah Virus, a Reemerging Arbovirus, in Livestock in China.

Getah virus (GETV) mainly causes disease in livestock and may pose an epidemic risk due to its expanding host range and the potential of long-distance dispersal through animal trade. Here, we used metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to identify GETV as the pathogen responsible for reemerging swine disease in China and subsequently estimated key epidemiological parameters using phylodynamic and spatially-explicit phylogeographic approaches. The GETV isolates were able to replicate in a variety of cell lines, including human cells, and showed high pathogenicity in a mouse model, suggesting the potential for more mammal hosts. We obtained 16 complete genomes and 79 E2 gene sequences from viral strains collected in China from 2016 to 2021 through large-scale surveillance among livestock, pets, and mosquitoes. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that three major GETV lineages are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We identified three potential positively selected sites and mutations of interest in E2, which may impact the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus. Phylodynamic inference of the GETV demographic dynamics identified an association between livestock meat consumption and the evolution of viral genetic diversity. Finally, phylogeographic reconstruction of GETV dispersal indicated that the sampled lineages have preferentially circulated within areas associated with relatively higher mean annual temperature and pig population density. Our results highlight the importance of continuous surveillance of GETV among livestock in southern Chinese regions associated with relatively high temperatures. IMPORTANCE Although livestock is known to be the primary reservoir of Getah virus (GETV) in Asian countries, where identification is largely based on serology, the evolutionary history and spatial epidemiology of GETV in these regions remain largely unknown. Through our sequencing efforts, we provided robust support for lineage delineation of GETV and identified three major lineages that are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We further analyzed genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct the recent demographic and dispersal history of GETV in domestic animals in China and to explore the impact of environmental factors on its genetic diversity and its diffusion. Notably, except for livestock meat consumption, other pig-related factors such as the evolution of live pig transport and pork production do not show a significant association with the evolution of viral genetic diversity, pointing out that further studies should investigate the potential contribution of other host species to the GETV outbreak. Our analysis of GETV demonstrates the need for wider animal species surveillance and provides a baseline for future studies of the molecular epidemiology and early warning of emerging arboviruses in China.

Dispersal history of SARS-CoV-2 in Galicia, Spain.

The dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission are influenced by a variety of factors, including social restrictions and the emergence of distinct variants. In this study, we delve into the origins and dissemination of the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron-BA.1 variants of concern in Galicia, northwest Spain. For this, we leveraged genomic data collected by the EPICOVIGAL Consortium and from the GISAID database, along with mobility information from other Spanish regions and foreign countries. Our analysis indicates that initial introductions during the Alpha phase were predominantly from other Spanish regions and France. However, as the pandemic progressed, introductions from Portugal and the United States became increasingly significant. The number of detected introductions varied from 96 and 101 for Alpha and Delta to 39 for Omicron-BA.1. Most of these introductions left a low number of descendants (<10), suggesting a limited impact on the evolution of the pandemic in Galicia. Notably, Galicia's major coastal cities emerged as critical hubs for viral transmission, highlighting their role in sustaining and spreading the virus. This research emphasizes the critical role of regional connectivity in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and offers essential insights for enhancing public health strategies and surveillance measures.

Phylodynamic evolution of HIV-1 A6 sub-subtype epidemics in Poland.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) A6 sub-subtype is highly prevalent in Eastern Europe. Over the past decade, the dissemination of the A6 lineage has been expanding in Poland. The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine may further escalate the spread of this sub-subtype. While evolutionary studies using viral sequences have been instrumental in identifying the HIV epidemic patterns, the origins, and dynamics of the A6 sub-subtype in Poland remain to be explored. We analyzed 1185 HIV-1 A6 pol sequences from Poland, along with 8318 publicly available sequences from other countries. For analyses, phylogenetic tree construction, population dynamics inference, Bayesian analysis, and discrete phylogeographic modeling were employed. Of the introduction events to Poland, 69.94% originated from Ukraine, followed by 29.17% from Russia. Most A6 sequences in Poland (53.16%) formed four large clades, with their introductions spanning 1993-2008. Central and Southern Polish regions significantly influenced migration events. Transmissions among men who have sex with men (MSM) emerged as the dominant risk group for virus circulation, representing 72.92% of migration events. Sequences from migrants were found primarily outside the large clades. Past migration from Ukraine has fueled the spread of the A6 sub-subtype and the current influx of war-displaced people maintains the growing national epidemic.

Phylogeography and paleoclimatic range dynamics explain variable outcomes to contact across a species' range.

Replicability of divergence after contact is a poorly characterized process, particularly in the contexts of phylogeography and postglacial range dynamics within species. Using contact zones located at the leading-, mid- and rear-edges of a species' range, we examined variation in outcomes to contact between divergent lineages of Campanula americana. We investigated whether contact zones vary in quantity and directionality of gene flow, how phylogeographic structure differs between contact zones, and how historic range dynamics may affect outcomes to contact. We found that all contact zones formed at similar times via primary contact yet detected significant admixture in only the rear-edge (RE) contact zone. In the northern leading-edge contact zone and the mid-range Virginia contact zone, gene flow was minimal and asymmetric. In the southern RE contact zone, gene flow was strong and symmetric. Asymmetric admixture in the leading-edge and Virginia contact zones matches the directionality of a known cosmopolitan cytonuclear incompatibility between lineages of C. americana. Our results emphasize the dependence of speciation processes on phylogeographic structure, evolutionary history and range dynamics.