Contingency inferences from base rates: A parsimonious strategy?

The pseudocontingency framework provides a parsimonious strategy for inferring the contingency between two variables by assessing the base rates. Frequently occurring levels are associated, as are rarely occurring levels. However, this strategy can lead to different contingency inferences in different contexts, depending on how the base rates vary across contexts. Here, we examine how base-rate consistency influences base-rate learning and reliance by contrasting consistent with inconsistent base rates. We hypothesized that base-rate learning is facilitated, and that people rely more on base rates if base rates are consistent. In Experiment 1, the base rates across four contexts implied the same (consistent) or different (inconsistent) contingencies. Base rates were learned equally accurately, and participants inferred contingencies that followed the base rates but deviated from the genuine contingencies within contexts, regardless of consistency. In Experiment 2, we additionally manipulated whether the context was a plausible moderator of the contingency. While we replicated the first experiment's results when the context was a plausible moderator, base-rate inferences were stronger for consistent base rates when the context was an implausible moderator. Possibly, when a moderation-by-context was implausible, participants also relied on the base-rate correlation across contexts, which implied the same contingency when base rates were consistent but was zero when the base rates were inconsistent. Thus, our findings suggest that contingency inferences from base rates involve top-down processes in which people decide how to use base-rate information.

On the role of exploitation and exploration strategies in the maintenance of cognitive biases: Beyond the pursuit of instrumental rewards.

Why can initial biases persist in repeated choice tasks? Previous research has shown that frequent rewards can lure the decision maker into premature exploitation of a supposedly best option, which can result in the persistence of initial biases. Here, we demonstrate that even in the absence of rewards, initial biases can be perpetuated through a positive testing strategy. After eliciting a biased preference for one of two equally rewarding options, participants (N = 203) could sample freely from both options without the lure of any financial rewards. When participants were told to rule out alternatives in this phase, they explored the supposedly worse option and thereby managed to overcome their initial bias. When told to optimize their strategy, however, they exhibited a positive testing strategy resulting in the continued exploitation of the supposedly better option, a bias they maintained in an incentivized choice phase and later judgments. Across all participants, individual tendencies to exploit one option in earlier phases predicted biased behavior in subsequent phases. The findings highlight that not only the pursuit of instrumental rewards can lead to exploitation and the maintenance of initial biases. We discuss potential consequences for interventions.

Statistical numeracy as a moderator of (pseudo)contingency effects on decision behavior.

Pseudocontingencies denote contingency estimates inferred from base rates rather than from cell frequencies. We examined the role of statistical numeracy for effects of such fallible but adaptive inferences on choice behavior. In Experiment 1, we provided information on single observations as well as on base rates and tracked participants' eye movements. In Experiment 2, we manipulated the availability of information on cell frequencies and base rates between conditions. Our results demonstrate that a focus on base rates rather than cell frequencies benefits pseudocontingency effects. Learners who are more proficient in (conditional) probability calculation prefer to rely on cell frequencies in order to judge contingencies, though, as was evident from their gaze behavior. If cell frequencies are available in summarized format, they may infer the true contingency between options and outcomes. Otherwise, however, even highly numerate learners are susceptible to pseudocontingency effects.

Much Pain, Little Gain? Paradigm-Specific Models and Methods in Experimental Psychology.

Paradigm-oriented research strategies in experimental psychology have strengths and limitations. On the one hand, experimental paradigms play a crucial epistemic and heuristic role in basic psychological research. On the other hand, empirical research is often limited to the observed effects in a certain paradigm, and theoretical models are frequently tied to the particular features of the given paradigm. A paradigm-driven research strategy therefore jeopardizes the pursuit of research questions and theoretical models that go beyond a specific paradigm. As one example of a more integrative approach, recent research on illusory and spurious correlations has attempted to overcome the limitations of paradigm-specific models in the context of biased contingency perception and social stereotyping. Last but not least, the use of statistical models for the analysis of elementary cognitive functions is a means toward a more integrative terminology and theoretical perspective across different experimental paradigms and research domains.